Visited my old city this past weekend, ate with some old friends, ate some more, walked along the lake.
A friend told me that he thought of his life as a book; he could see how it ends, and right now most of the chapters were written, but he needed one more chapter to bridge the gap in the plot.
I asked him if he meant having a family. He laughed, ignored his wife who was sitting beside him, and said heck no, that his missing chapter was operating experience in a startup: to take it from $10 million in revenue to exit.
We made a bet with each other - that our kids would no longer need to learn how to drive, and that our grandchildren would be genetically engineered.
Met a girl on the plane; we had a pretty neat conversation about the Kievan Rus, the Tatars, and how the Russians got ahold of gunpowder and Christianity.
She likes cabs and this is her first time here (she's from the Ukraine), so I sent her a list of Napa vineyards to visit. We're going three weekends from now; should be fun.
Enough snide commentary. I think we should all stop eating in 20 years.
Koomey's Law stipulates that the power efficiency of a computer doubles every 1.57 years, or that it increases roughly 100x every 10 years. Koomey's Law has a correlation over 0.97.
The human body consumes 100-150 watts at rest, and our worldwide energy to food conversion efficiency is something like 10%, which means we consume 1.5MW of energy to survive.
Our brains generate 20 petaflops of peak computational power.
20 petaflops divided by 1.5MW is about 13 teraflops per watt. Right now the worlds most efficient supercomputers run at slightly over 9 gigaflops per watt (https://www.top500.org/green500/lists/2016/11/). Assuming Koomey's Law holds, in roughly 15 years, our most efficient supercomputers will be as energy-efficient as the human brain. Assuming we can 5x our energy to food conversion efficiency, then that 15 becomes about 19 years. Assuming we have 30% average utilization in a scale-out compute architecture, then we wait 20 years.
In 20 years, it makes more sense for us to build computers everywhere and host human consciousness within them, than it does for us to waste energy farming food and feeding people. In this lens, Elon Musk's neural lace is a necessary step along the way to this future state.
Our grandchildren may or may not be engineered, or they might not exist in a physical form at all. They will be born into the Cloud, and we will join them there.
Will that make us angels?