| Caller Poland. May 05 2010 00:40. Posts 7266 | Profile Blog # |
I have here two card games. I give everybody 5 ESPORTS dollars to play these games with.
The first card game is quite simple. There are three cards. One of them is the Ace of Spades. The other two are other cards that are not important. You may put any amount of your ESPORTS money on this game. If you win, you get your bet back + 2 times your bet (so if you bet 1 dollar and win you get 3 dollars back).
The other card game is also pretty simple. There are three cards, once again, and you must once again find the Ace of Spades. This time, I'll tell you that one of the cards is not the Ace of Spades. I will be perfectly honest. However, because of this information, you will be paid at 1:1 instead of 2:1. Thus, expected value for both games is the same.
You must bet all of your ESPORTS dollars in these two games to get any back. How do you choose to play?
Poll: Game 1$5 (13) 41% $0 (10) 31% $2 (5) 16% $3 (2) 6% $1 (1) 3% $4 (1) 3% 32 total votes Your vote: Game 1 (Vote): $0
(Vote): $1
(Vote): $2
(Vote): $3
(Vote): $4
(Vote): $5
Poll: Game 2?$5 (11) 39% $0 (7) 25% $3 (6) 21% $1 (2) 7% $2 (1) 4% $4 (1) 4% 28 total votes Your vote: Game 2? (Vote): $0
(Vote): $1
(Vote): $2
(Vote): $3
(Vote): $4
(Vote): $5
2 is not Monty Hall style. I tell you before you pick that it's not this one or that one.
The condition is you have to play with all your money.Last edit: 2010-05-05 02:21:31
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| SnowFantasy May 05 2010 00:49. Posts 3653 | Profile Blog # |
$0 on game 1.
$5 on game 2.
Better chance to win game 2 right?Last edit: 2010-05-05 00:50:21 |
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| hoborg United States. May 05 2010 00:58. Posts 430 | Profile Blog # |
Game 2... both bets seem to be at equal odds but game 2 is smaller risk - less of a chance of losing all of my ESPORTS dollars.
(Unless in game 2 if you tell me which is not the ace of spades AFTER I make my first choice... in which case game 2 gives a better payout)Last edit: 2010-05-05 01:02:14 |
| | blbl | CJ and ACE fighting! |
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| Butigroove Seychelles. May 05 2010 01:00. Posts 2059 | Profile Blog # | |
| | beach beers buds beezies b-b-b-baaanelings |
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| ProoM Lithuania. May 05 2010 01:05. Posts 1741 | Profile Blog # |
| $5 bucks on both. (I got sponsors yo!) |
| | IMBA - International Mountain Bicycling Association. | |
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| Navi Korea (South). May 05 2010 01:19. Posts 3253 | Profile # |
| 4 then 1 because that's how I roll :o |
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| Glull Germany. May 05 2010 01:24. Posts 389 | Profile Blog # |
| 5$ on g1 to get it over with, then back to hon |
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 lowbright May 05 2010 01:25. Posts 308 | Profile Blog # | |
| | TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #49 |
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| incnone May 05 2010 01:34. Posts 17 | Profile # |
As the lame conservative better that I am,
$2 on game 1
$3 on game 2. |
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| Ghostcom Denmark. May 05 2010 01:34. Posts 2475 | Profile # |
On May 05 2010 00:58 hoborg wrote:
Game 2... both bets seem to be at equal odds but game 2 is smaller risk - less of a chance of losing all of my ESPORTS dollars.
(Unless in game 2 if you tell me which is not the ace of spades AFTER I make my first choice... in which case game 2 gives a better payout)
NVM, I understood your post wrong...Last edit: 2010-05-05 01:35:16 |
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 MasterOfChaos Germany. May 05 2010 01:36. Posts 2896 | Profile Blog # |
Your description of the second game is a bit sloppy. At which time do you tell people which card doesn't win? After they chose(Monty Hall style) or before?
If 2 is not monty hall style I won't play and just keep my 5 E$.
Plating EV=0 games is useless since you only fall to gambler's ruin. And even if they were better than than, as long as you demand that I bet significantly more than the Kelly criterion I won't bet either. |
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| Boblion France. May 05 2010 01:42. Posts 7797 | Profile Blog # |
Pretty much what MoC said.
I would only bother to play all my money on game 2 if it is Monty Hall style.
Otherwise i can always heads or tail with friends.
1/3 to win 3 or 1/2 to win 2x is useless.Last edit: 2010-05-05 01:43:09 |
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| spinesheath Germany. May 05 2010 01:47. Posts 5151 | Profile Blog # |
I normally wouldn't bet on something like that either, MoC described my reasons well enough.
However, if I were betting:
$2 on game 1
$3 on game 2
+ Show Spoiler [reason] +lowest chance to lose money overall
Btw, a single poll with options
5/0, 4/1, 3/2, 2/3, 1/4, 5/0
would have helped avoiding inconsistencies  Last edit: 2010-05-05 02:07:14 |
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| Scarecrow Korea (South). May 05 2010 01:53. Posts 4557 | Profile Blog # |
On May 05 2010 01:34 incnone wrote:
$2 on game 1
$3 on game 2.
Seeing as you have to bet all your dollars this seems like the best option. |
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| Caller Poland. May 05 2010 02:21. Posts 7266 | Profile Blog # |
On May 05 2010 01:36 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Your description of the second game is a bit sloppy. At which time do you tell people which card doesn't win? After they chose(Monty Hall style) or before?
If 2 is not monty hall style I won't play and just keep my 5 E$.
Plating EV=0 games is useless since you only fall to gambler's ruin. And even if they were better than than, as long as you demand that I bet significantly more than the Kelly criterion I won't bet either.
You're right, I should've specified better
-2 is not Monty Hall style. I tell you before you pick that it's not this one or that one.
The condition is you have to play with all your money. I'm fully aware of gambler's ruin. This is just testing something else out ^^ |
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| Caller Poland. May 05 2010 02:21. Posts 7266 | Profile Blog # |
On May 05 2010 01:47 spinesheath wrote:I normally wouldn't bet on something like that either, MoC described my reasons well enough. However, if I were betting: $2 on game 1 $3 on game 2 + Show Spoiler [reason] +lowest chance to lose money overall Btw, a single poll with options 5/0, 4/1, 3/2, 2/3, 1/4, 5/0 would have helped avoiding inconsistencies
I intentionally did it this way ^^ |
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| spinesheath Germany. May 05 2010 02:24. Posts 5151 | Profile Blog # |
| So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5? |
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| Keniji Germany. May 05 2010 02:43. Posts 1305 | Profile Blog # |
On May 05 2010 01:36 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Your description of the second game is a bit sloppy. At which time do you tell people which card doesn't win? After they chose(Monty Hall style) or before?
If 2 is not monty hall style I won't play and just keep my 5 E$.
Plating EV=0 games is useless since you only fall to gambler's ruin. And even if they were better than than, as long as you demand that I bet significantly more than the Kelly criterion I won't bet either.
meh, don't be so risk averse and rational, that's boring.
5$ on game 1! |
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| Caller Poland. May 05 2010 03:51. Posts 7266 | Profile Blog # |
On May 05 2010 02:24 spinesheath wrote:
So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5?
why not |
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| spinesheath Germany. May 05 2010 04:21. Posts 5151 | Profile Blog # |
On May 05 2010 03:51 Caller wrote:
Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 02:24 spinesheath wrote:
So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5?
why not
Just asking. |
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