Mindgames in GSL *spoiler*

I really enjoyed watching today's Code S group. "But there was so much cheese/all-in!" you might say. What others might see as cheesy though, I see as brilliantly planned, strategic play. No, this isn't me using "strategic play" as a euphemism for cheese as someone else once did. These games were actually well-planned out by the winner. Let me explain.

Supernova vs MC Game 3

MC didn't get detection and lost to cloaked banshees. Terrible game, Supernova cheesed and got lucky, right? Well, I don't think so. At least, it's not that simple. To understand Supernova's build, consider two key pieces of scouting information he showed MC:

MC's scouting probe was blocked by a barracks, 2 supply depot wall. Players savvy in the PvT matchup may know that if you scout the opponent on your first try (which is guaranteed on GSL Antiga Shipyard because of forced cross positions), your probe arrives at the Terran's base when a standard gas opening doesn't have enough minerals to build the second supply depot. So if you see that second depot, you know that Terran didn't build a refinery yet.
He built a bunker on the low ground, on top of the ramp leading to his natural. MC saw this with his zealot/stalker poke, thus "confirming" that Supernova expanded.

What build does this look like? Both pieces of information suggest the Terran is going for the most popular, standard macro opening in the current metagame: 1 rax FE with no gas. If I were in MC's position, I would've made the same read. Any Protoss player who didn't find Supernova's smurf and look at his match history would've made the same read.

How can this not be a no gas fast expand?

Once Supernova gave away these two pieces of information to fake the gasless FE, he correctly predicted MC's response of 1 gate FE into 4 gates with no robo. How did Supernova know this was coming? I believe he made his prediction based on the following logic:

During Homestory Cup 4, this was MC's go to build against Terran's gasless FE. It is how he demolished Poyo and Cloud when they both attempted to play macro games against him. Supernova could've watched HSC4 and learned MC's tendency to play this way, but he probably also knew that MC likes to play this way, being on the same team.
When the Protoss knows Terran is opening with gasless FE and takes his own fast expo, 4 gate pressure is simply a better build than 3 gates with a robo. Gasless FE is usually followed up by either medivac/stim tech(the standard TvP build) or by a fast 3rd CC, neither of which a robo is immediately useful against. A robo with observers kills Protoss' ability to pressure before Terran's stimpack is done researching, and also delays Protoss' 3rd base unnecessarily. At best the 3 gate robo followup comes out even against standard medivac play, and is terrible against fast 3rd CC. 4 gate, on the other hand, puts immense pressure on Terran between 8 and 9 minutes. Terran is especially vulnerable during this period because the standard medivac build has neither stim nor medivacs at this time, and fast 3rd CC delays those even further. This combined with the fact that Terran fears a potential 6 gate all-in means that he must make more bunkers and pull many SCVs off of mining to get ready to repair. Until Terran has stim and medivacs (or ghosts if he went for that route), it is not safe to sell the bunkers and send SCVs back to mining. Once the 9 minute mark is reached and Terran has stim, Protoss simply retreats his units and takes a 3rd base with the resources saved from not getting any tech or upgrades. All in all, the Terran is in a worse position economically than he would be if Protoss didn't pressure.

When all is said and done, sure enough, MC fell for the bait and went for his tried and true 4 gate pressure. Supernova, knowing MC's play style and the fact that the current metagame favors 4 gate against Terran's gasless FE, mindgamed MC by going for cloaked banshees disguised as a gasless FE. With cloak vs no detection, it was an easy win. To win with a cheese against unsafe play is one thing, and happens all the time on ladder. But to win with a cheese after tricking your opponent into thinking he's safe? Now that's something special.

ForGG vs MC Game 1

It looks like your average, run of the mill macro game where one side wins after a good engagement. Having just lost to Supernova, MC learned his lesson: no matter what reads you make from scouting, unless you actually see the expansion, Terran can always add gases and switch to cloaked banshees! In this game ForGG showed MC a gasless opening, but not the CC itself. MC, having learned from his mistake the previous game, went for 3 gate robo instead of 4 gate to follow his 1 gate FE, just in case ForGG would pull the same trick Supernova did. ForGG's build? Fast 3rd CC before gas. If gasless FE into medivacs is the soft counter to 1 gate FE into 3 gate robo, then gasless 3rd CC is the hard counter. ForGG took such a big lead just from the choices of build orders that he lost 2 full medivacs for nothing, and still rolled over MC with his massive supply advantage. Did ForGG intentionally manipulate MC into going 3 gate robo, knowing how 4 gate turned out against Supernova? Maybe. Maybe not. But I'd give a former MSL champion the benefit of the doubt.

Game timer 13:30. This is what happens when you try to play robo vs fast 3rd CC

MC vs Leenock Game 3

At a first glance, MC's build doesn't make any sense. Why do a 7 gate all-in with 12 sentries at the last second, when you could make 8 sentries much earlier and still have just as many force fields? In fact, why do such an outdated build as 7 gate anyway? I believe MC's success resulted from a clever trick taking advantage of how unpopular 7 gate is nowadays. Consider the following 3 builds that are similar to each other, all popular in the current metagame:

4 gate +1 zealot pressure. This build exploits the trend of Zergs expanding twice without gas to skip any sentries or additional cannons beyond the first and sending 8 zealots with +1 weapons to the Zerg's 3rd base at 8 minutes. This pressure hits at an awkward timing for Zerg, forcing them to make many lings and produce roaches earlier than they would like. Meanwhile at home, Protoss has a large gas build-up that eases the transition into either a macro game(see Hero) or a 2 base all-in timing (see Naniwa).
4 gate +1 zealot pressure with void ray support. This is just like the last build, but with 7 zealots and a void ray instead of 8 zealots, at almost the same timing. Upgraded zealots kill spores, queens, and lings while void rays kill roaches, so this build is much more likely to kill the Zerg's 3rd, but worse at transitioning out. Whereas the 8 zealot version punishes late roaches, this one is good against early roaches and punishes late creep spread.
4 gate +1 zealot pressure with DTs. Same idea again, except with DTs instead of void rays. You kill spore crawlers with the zealots and focus down the 3rd with DTs to follow up.

What do all of these builds have in common? They all pressure with +1 zealots at 8 minutes, all require Zerg to make roaches to survive, and the latter 2 require Zerg to make spores. Oh, and they're all way more popular, and considered better builds, than the 7 gate. Meanwhile, 7 gate tends to build up a high sentry count early for more force field energy, hit later, and also come with an armor upgrade. Now if you're Leenock and you scout the following with an overlord and a ling at the watchtower, what build do you think MC's doing?

4 gates

+1 zealots

Yeah, that's a no brainer. It's some form of the popular 4 gate +1 zealot pressure, and if Leenock watches a lot of MC's games, he knows the DT variant is MC's favorite one. Especially in foreign tournaments, MC loves the DT followup. Maybe the timing was off, but remember that MC blocked Leenock's hatchery with a pylon, which throws off all timings and I doubt Leenock could've calculated the timing difference on the spot. Also, jetlag and tilt from losing to a baneling bust could have caused MC to mess up his execution. Now consider how Zerg is supposed to play against these builds:

Against all 4 gate +1 variations, Zerg must make an early roach warren and start making pure units at around 50-55 drones.
Against the void ray and DT variations, Zerg must make spore crawlers.
Against a 7 gate all-in, Zerg has more time to build drones and wants to have burrow for his roaches. Hydras also help.

Guess what Leenock had when the 7 gate hit? 55 drones, a spore crawler, enough roach/ling to hold off 4 gate +1 pressure, and no burrow or hydra den. By building 3 gateways simultaneously in the same area scouted by an overlord, showing only zealots, and delaying sentry warp-ins until the last second, MC fooled Leenock into thinking he was doing his 4 gate +1 zealot pressure into DT build. Leenock prepared for the DT build, but the defense against that is inappropriate for holding off the 7 gate all-in that MC was actually doing. Some of you may have noticed that MC did the same trick against Nerchio in HSC4. Once again a player created an illusion in the mind of his opponent, and won the mindgame.

Three oGs players today were able to take advantage of trends in the metagame and knowledge of players' past tendencies to disguise their builds, inducing their opponents into sub-optimal responses to their real strategy. These games, despite looking like simple, uninteresting, or even "cheesy" games to the untrained eye, were actually an incredible display of the strategic depth found at the Code S level. If you have read all the way here, I hope you now have a deeper appreciation of these games than you did before.

Last edit: 2012-01-11 18:55:28

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GenesisX Canada. January 11 2012 09:18. Posts 3961

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Great read! Didn't even watch yesterday's games but it sure does give a whole lot more explanation than the recommended game polls and the LR thread lol.

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qrs United States. January 11 2012 09:22. Posts 3496

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Nice post.

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Asha` United Kingdom. January 11 2012 09:23. Posts 26495

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Really great read Iamke!

You're defintely on the money with the Nova vs MC analysis, from their interviews today:

Q: In your game against oGsMC, you used Banshees in every match.

A: That is how I established my concept. I pressed on in that sense because oGsMC uses a build that often excludes accounting for concealed banshees. I think it went according the planned scenario.

Particularly loved the insight into MC vs Leenock G3 too since not playing either race much often means I just completely overlook the subtleties of various build order decisions.

Last edit: 2012-01-11 09:24:16

chenchen United States. January 11 2012 09:26. Posts 1129

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The second depot is actually very very late in a normal gasless 1 rax FE. As far as I understand, you want to plot down the second CC well before your second depot.

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phiinix United States. January 11 2012 09:46. Posts 1124

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Someone with reasoning. Incredible.

Grend January 11 2012 09:48. Posts 1537

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Thanks for this! Helped explain some stuff I did not understand.

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Probulous Australia. January 11 2012 09:55. Posts 3784

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What a brilliant read!

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NeoSlicerZ Ireland. January 11 2012 10:01. Posts 248

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I thought that the form of 7g that MC did was relatively popular as a followup to +1 zealot, Artosis might have made that popular by writing the b/o on his blog.

See.Blue United States. January 11 2012 10:13. Posts 2291

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Baller thread. Now I'm def gonna go watch these.

ArchDC Malaysia. January 11 2012 10:24. Posts 1194

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Definitely gained a much deeper appreciation for the builds and the wins now!

Hopes SC2 becomes as exciting as BW w expansions

FlaShFTW United States. January 11 2012 11:34. Posts 4957

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amazing read. great analysis.

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ggofthejungle Romania. January 11 2012 12:04. Posts 234

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iamke55, you are a gentleman and a scholar. We need more in-depth analysis like this!

Azzur Australia. January 11 2012 12:28. Posts 5839

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This is a great writeup and great to see some high level analysis! Just to comment on the first 2 games above - I'm a bit unconvinced though...

Although HSC is a decent tournament, Poyo and Cloud are hardly top-tier terrans. I would be interested to see 1-gate FE into 4-gate pressure vs 1-rax FE against decent terrans. If I recall correctly, MC did this 4-gate pressure against MMA in the GSL Nov Code S ro32 group stages and got badly trashed. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that 4-gate pressure is not that great vs 1-gate FE anyways and MC was better off going for 3-gate robo. However, MC could be trying to exploit the fact that Supernova likes to go 1-rax FE into double gas, and hence the 4-gate pressure should be able to outright kill that.

I'm not convinced that 3-gate robo fares badly against 3 CC before gas. Won't a quick 2-base colossus fare well or outright win against it? 3 CC before gas means that the terran will be marine heavy and colossus will do well against it regardless of whether the protoss does a timing push or not. At worse, the protoss can get that 3rd base up before the terran feels safe to land the 3rd CC anyways. Perhaps forGG exploits the fact that MC likes to go gateway heavy?

I'm not that good in ZvP so I was puzzled about leenock's defensive strategy. I thought he scouted the 7-gates but I wasn't paying too much attention. Thus, I was surprised that he built only 1 spinecrawler initially at the 3rd when I thought he should've built much much more. The analysis clears alot of things up.

Last edit: 2012-01-11 12:43:00

S2Lunar January 11 2012 12:36. Posts 1016

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Really nice analysis of those games, good read.

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Confuse January 11 2012 12:52. Posts 1793

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Agreed, thanks for putting things in perspective. The casters more or less shrugged it off as one player failing or the other, but they didn't explain the tricks quite as well. We're about to reach another level of starcraft :D

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Alvis January 11 2012 12:52. Posts 681

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Nice analysis ! Good job !

Proko United States. January 11 2012 13:01. Posts 727

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This is a brilliant post. All of the micro/cheese builds that came out today were well-planned or the result of smart scouting. Code S is really upping the ante on the wrinkles to strategic play.

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JawHun United States. January 11 2012 13:05. Posts 151

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Great article, thank you.

dudecrush Canada. January 11 2012 13:06. Posts 378

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Wow! This is amazing. I'll never look at "random" cheese the same way ever again!