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NASL Playoff Picture - Week 9

Forum Index > Blogs 1 2 All
 
 Primadog   United States. June 05 2012 03:38. Posts 4395
Profile Blog # 


Outside of the GSL, NASL is the only Major with a proper league format. The regular / post season league design mirrors how most traditional sports operate, which can be a lot of fun analyzing, if anyone bothers.

How the league stand after week 8
[image loading]
Note: the black bars represent remaining matchups; source (Wiki)North American Star League Season 3


In week 9, five players have concluded seasonal play (one from each division - (Z)Zenio, (T)Ryung, (T)GanZi, (P)Alicia, and (P)Puzzle); 4 has two sets to play due to rescheduling (W7D1 (T)PuMa vs (P)NightEnD, W8D5 (P)White-Ra vs (T)Polt); the remaining 36 players have a set left to play each.




Based on my discussion with Xeris, the league commisioner, the post season works like this in season 3:

  • 8 players seeds directly into the post-season playoffs
    • 5 - All five #1 seeds from each group
    • 3 - three of five #2 seeds advance to directly to the playoffs
  • 14 players goes into a wild-card race for 8 playoff spots (with addition of 2 players from The NASL Open)
  • 11 more players remain safe for next season
  • 12 players eliminated of NASL and will need to re-qualify

Notations I will be using
    P advance directly into playoffs
    W advance into wild-card race
    S safe for next season
    O out of NASL





The playoff picture column lists possible post-season status for each players given their current standing.

League standings
[image loading]


For example, (P)Puzzle already finished his regular season at        7-1 Sets +12 points       . If (P)MC wins 2-0 against (Z)MorroW, MC will end Season 3 with        7-1 Sets +10 points      ; If MorroW wins 2-0, MorroW will only be at        6-2 Sets 5 points        - neither scenario will detrone Puzzle from the top seed in Division V. Therefore, Puzzle has guaranteed his spot in the post season playoffs.



Analysis

  • 7 players are 6-win or better; 8 more can end up 6-win this week. Therefore all 6-win players will either be P or W and not SO
  • 2 players are 7-lose or worse; 8 more can end up 7-lose this week. Therefore all 7-lose players will be O
  • 13 players are 5-lose or worse; 9 more can end up 5-lose this week. Therefore all 5-lose players will either be O or S and cannot be PW
  • 18 players are 5-win or better; 7 more players can end up 5-win this week. Therefore 5-win do not guarantee a player will be P or W.
    Note: (Z)Stephano currently stands at        5-2 Sets 6 points        his worst case scenario is losing 2-0 to (P)NightEnD and all 18+7 players capable end up 5-win or better (shockingly possible). In that case, the standings can become
      22 Stephano 5-3 +4
      23 GanZi 5-3 +3
      24 Zenio 5-3 +2
      25 Ryung +2
    Therefore Stephano will still be W even if the stars align against him



(Z)MorroW

Even if MorroW 2-0 MC, the standings will still be
    1. Puzzle 7-1 +12
    2. MC 6-2 +6
    3. MorroW +5
Therefore MorroW cannot be P



(P)HerO

Worst Case scenario, Hasuobs 2-0 herO, Demuslim 2-0 Dimaga; division 2 becomes
    1. DeMusliM 6-2 +10
    2. HerO 6-2 +8
    3. Hasuobs 6-2 +6
And league wide worst case for HerO
Division I: Puma+15; Stephano +8
Division II: DeMusliM +10; HerO +8
Division III: HuK +10; Strelok +7
Division IV: Alicia +7; Ret +7
Division V: Puzzle +12; MC +10

Top seed: Puma > Puzzle = DeMuslim > HuK > Alicia
Second seed: MC > Stephano = HerO > Ret > Strelok

Therefore, HerO will still be P; additionally (P)HasuObs cannot be P.



(T)GanZi

Even if Strelok and Sen both lost their final matchup and that Strelok and Ganzi will both be       5-3 Sets +3      ; Strelok has the head-to-head win over Ganzi; therefore Ganzi cannot be P.





Only 4 players have post-season status decided prior the final week of NASL regular season. This means we can look forward to closely contested matches all week long, with players playing not only for the standard $150 each set, but also their post-season lives. During the same time last season, much more of the league standings had already been decided. This points to NASL making positive changes to the format, and that the NASL player pool has dropped its deadweight become much more competitive.

Thank you for reading! More edits and posts coming up as the final NASL week unfold before our eyes.
Last edit: 2012-06-06 16:46:46


****
Thank God and gunrun.
Old Post

 
 Balgrog   United States. June 05 2012 03:54. Posts 1168
Profile Blog # 
Awesome write up! I was actually just trying to look into all of this and figure it out. I love NASL and I am sure if you were to keep doing stuff of this quality you might be able to get a spot light or something. Please continue this throughout playoffs and finals, would <3 for ever. Oh and 5/5 for you of course, thanks again!

Edit, also a nice touch would be including the total amount of $ each player has won from winning their matches throughout the season!
Last edit: 2012-06-05 03:57:18
The only way to attack structure is with chaos.
Old Post

 
 Bagration   United States. June 05 2012 04:37. Posts 10761
Profile Blog # 
Thank you for this. Really clears a lot of questions up.
Team Slayers, Axiom and Vile forever
Old Post

 
 yoshi_yoshi   United States. June 05 2012 04:52. Posts 437
Profile # 
Thanks for the write-up.

I prefer the way where top 2 from each division get in. Getting second in your division and being lumped in with the wild card spots seems a bit harsh to me.
Old Post

 
 TheRealNanMan   United States. June 05 2012 05:10. Posts 1224
Profile Blog # 
Thanks for the write up! :D I've been a big fan of NASL and sadly missed the last couple weeks but now I know exactly whats going on and who has the chance of making it to the playoffs and who wont be around next season
Sc2 Caster for Playhem, AGL, SPGL, ESEA & DC LAN | Host of Sc2 Up & Coming | The Godfather of Team LXG | Youtube.com/NanMan | Twitch.tv/TheRealNanMan | Twitter.com/TheRealNanMan | Twitter.com/Sc2UPandComing
Old Post

 
 Whynaut   Canada. June 05 2012 05:17. Posts 362
Profile Blog # 
If ret wins 2-0, he is tied with puzzle at 6-2, with ret's map score at 13-6 and Puzzle's at 12-5 (both +7). Who will be first then?
Old Post

 
 Primadog   United States. June 05 2012 05:28. Posts 4395
Profile Blog # 

On June 05 2012 03:54 Balgrog wrote:
Awesome write up! I was actually just trying to look into all of this and figure it out. I love NASL and I am sure if you were to keep doing stuff of this quality you might be able to get a spot light or something. Please continue this throughout playoffs and finals, would <3 for ever. Oh and 5/5 for you of course, thanks again!

Edit, also a nice touch would be including the total amount of $ each player has won from winning their matches throughout the season!


Assuming it's straight $150 to the winner, no deductions for w/o and etc;

$23,700 total
Puzzle 1050
PuMa 900
HerO 900
DeMusliM 900
HuK 900
MC 900
Alicia 900
Stephano 750
Strelok 750
Ret 750
HasuObs 750
Sen 750
LoWeLy 750
MorroW 750
TT1 750
GanZi 750
Zenio 750
Ryung 750
ThorZaIN 600
SeleCT 600
ClouD 600
DIMAGA 600
aLive 600
NightEnD 450
Polt 450
TLO 450
ViBE 450
TargA 450
Sheth 450
CrazymoviNG 450
MaNa 450
White-Ra 300
HwangSin 300
IdrA 300
qxc 300
Brat_OK 150
Rain 150
NonY 150
SjoW 150
Axslav 150
CrunCher 150
DarKFoRcE 150
CatZ 150
Jinro 0
HayprO 0
Thank God and gunrun.
Old Post

 
 Primadog   United States. June 05 2012 05:29. Posts 4395
Profile Blog # 

On June 05 2012 05:17 Whynaut wrote:
If ret wins 2-0, he is tied with puzzle at 6-2, with ret's map score at 13-6 and Puzzle's at 12-5 (both +7). Who will be first then?


Assuming tie-breakers are same as season 2 (Wiki)North American Star League Season 2 Alicia owns the head-to-head, so Alicia is first seed.
Thank God and gunrun.
Old Post

 
 FuDDx  *   United States. June 05 2012 06:34. Posts 3958
Profile Blog # 
^_^ !!

Thanks man
Got Balloons??? www.fudd.balloonhq.com www.balloonsbyfudd.weebly.com
Old Post

 
 andReslic   June 05 2012 07:00. Posts 200
Profile # 
lool jinro and HayprO showing how good they are
Old Post

 
 phiinix   United States. June 05 2012 07:43. Posts 1124
Profile Blog # 
Don't watch NASL much, but cool write up
Old Post

 
 SanchoPanda   United States. June 05 2012 08:23. Posts 114
Profile # 
I love this blog post so much i want to marry it!

Prima you dog you!

Thanks so much for showing us how much we have to be excited about the week after MLG Anaheim! <3

Edit: upvote on REDDIT
Last edit: 2012-06-05 08:38:25
Siege the Day!
Old Post

 
 PleasureImWallace   Canada. June 05 2012 08:41. Posts 45
Profile Blog # 
The fuck is up with Jinro these past few months? Hope he finds his groove soon
CHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESE GROMIT
Old Post

 
 Zidane   United States. June 05 2012 09:31. Posts 1511
Profile Blog # 
Jinro and Haypro also both did pretty bad in gtsl.
Old Post

 
 GreyKnight   United States. June 05 2012 09:39. Posts 4311
Profile # 
thank you for this!
Old Post

 
 Probe1   United States. June 05 2012 09:42. Posts 16445
Profile Blog # 
You also did pretty bad in the world cup Zidane T_T
j/k.
Thank you Prima this is really great reading material.
우정호 KT_VIOLET 1988 - 2012 While we are postponing, life speeds by
Old Post

 
 Xeris   Iran. June 05 2012 10:51. Posts 16870
Profile Blog # 
Just a correction: we don't give prize money for w.o's .
twitter.com/xerislight -- follow me~~
Old Post

 
 a9arnn   United States. June 05 2012 13:57. Posts 1310
Profile Blog # 
Seems like it's gonna be an intense week for some of these guys :O!
VOD finder guy for sc2ratings.com/ !| Writer for @Clarity_Gaming!| aka: ogndrahcir, a9azn2 | Go ZerO, Stork, Sea, and KawaiiRice :D | nesc2league.com/forum/index.php | youtube.com/watch?v=oaGtjWL5mZo
Old Post

 
 JOJOsc2news   June 05 2012 21:52. Posts 2999
Profile Blog # 
Very much appreciated.
Now let's see if the casters get it too.

Thanks Primadog!
✉ Tweets @sc2channel ⌦ Blog: http://www.teamliquid.net/blog/JOJO ⌫ "Arbiterssss... build more arbiterssss." Click 'Profile' for awesome shiro art!
Old Post

 
 Cydearrm   United States. June 05 2012 23:29. Posts 56
Profile Blog # 
Great post! Reminds me of when I used to follow traditional sports as the regular season closed haha ^.^
The enemy's gate is down.
Old Post

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