Why we have no Amateur Scene - Analysis

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On July 24 2012 02:14 Sethronu wrote:
There is no amateur scene because everyone can view top tier pros play, so why would you wanna watch someone not so good. There are so many high calibre SC2 events going on basically every day, most people don't even watch entirety of major tournaments as it is. Amateur scene in real sports exists because people go to live events at their local stadiums, not because X amount of people watches them on TV.

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On July 24 2012 02:20 L_Master wrote:


College football and basketball get VERY good TV ratings.

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On July 24 2012 03:04 Blazinghand wrote:


And I'm not sure if this is any good indication, but there are several players who aren't really great tournament players or people who've gotten wins or anything, who, through their personality, playstyle, or ability to make good presentations, run successful streams. I don't know what this means for tournaments or if this would translate over, but I think just "highest possible level of play" isn't the only thing people look for in esports-- there are other entertainment factors.

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On July 24 2012 02:20 L_Master wrote:


College football and basketball get VERY good TV ratings.

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Let us assume that an event needs 10k online concurrent viewers to be worth running.

Target Semi-pro Viewership = 10k Concurrents
Semi-Pro/Pro Viewership Ratio = 1%
(Target Pro Viewership) = (Target Semi-pro Viewership) / (Semipro/Pro Viewership Ratio)
(Target Pro Viewership) = (10,000) / (1%)
(Target Pro Viewership) = (10,000) / (.01)
(Target Pro Viewership) = 1,000,000 Concurrent Viewers

For an investor to safely run an SC2 amateur event, major SC2 events must draw 1,000,000 Concurrent viewers.

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On July 24 2012 10:02 Bagration wrote:
First off, I appreciate all the work that you put into this blog, and the thought and analysis behind it. I agree with you that having a sustainable amateur scene is pretty important, and that currently it is usually not worth investing in a amateur scene. But you can't draw conclusions from assumptions, nor can you force the baseball model onto eSports.

Just because amateur baseball gets 1% of the viewership that MLB does, does not mean that amateur SC2 tournaments will get 1% of the viewers that professional tournaments get, nor should they necessarily strive to reach that number (often times I would expect them to surpass this).



The issue that I have with this analysis is that you begin by abitrarily throwing out the 10k minimum concurrent viewership number, and use the 1% ratio from baseball that I believe does not necessarily apply to SC2, which gives you a number that doesn't really make sense.

For example, the 10k minimum concurrent viewership is a number I would dispute. NASL and IPL broadcasts, while they may break 10k viewership, often fall short of these goals. Meanwhile, even smaller tournaments like the ESV fall far below the 10k mark.

Furthermore, realistically there is very little chance that SC2 events will ever reach 1 million concurrent viewers if our largest events now do not even reach half that number. The only realistic way for that to happen would be if North Korea's Kim Jong Un was secretly a massive SC2 fan and forced his entire nation to watch SC2 tournaments. I jest a bit here, but it will be very difficult to more than double viewership just like that

Now, my critique was pretty harsh, and I hope you don't take it personally. You did make some very good points, as well as recognize the importance of amateur and talent-development programs, and I really appreciate the effort you put into this. I also agree with your conclusion that currently investment in amateur programs is generally not worthwhile at the moment.

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On July 24 2012 20:11 Arcane86 wrote:


Hey, a thoughtful critique! Those don't happen often.

Re: 1%
If you can suggest a better model to use and show me some numbers, we can use that ratio instead. However, if I'm an investor, I need some sort of quantitatively supported basis to go off of. "striving for higher" means nothing to someone who's decisions are governed by ROI, and an amateur scene won't be "sustainable" if investors like this don't think its worthwhile.

Again, MLB might not be the best model, but from an investors standpoint, its better than no model. You are welcome to present a better one.

Re: 10k target concurrents
It is not clear to anyone that NASL and IPL's daily broadcasts are making ROI targets for IGN. From a business standpoint, these are an attempt to get a foothold in a growing market so that, when the market becomes big, IGN will then be making lots of money.

Moreover, if the target is 8k, that's still a target size of 800,000 for MLG concurrents. If the target is 5k, the MLG target size is 500,000. The overall point of, "it needs to be MUCH bigger" (ie more than 3x as big) still stands.

Re: doubling viewership
Indeed, it might not happen. Semi-pro players should read this analysis, realize that, and make their career decisions based on reasonable analysis. Moreover, I hope people start to realize how important it is for the scene to grow. That means broadening its appeal to people who know less about the game, getting all of us better at communicating with our friends who aren't into SC2, getting better at explaining to people why what we do is awesome. This stuff doesn't happen by itself.

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