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On December 24 2014 07:24 L_Master wrote:Group D: Mong and Hyuk Reasoning - Mirabel picked Sea.KH, but I don't see that happening, even if we work on the assumption protoss Sea is in form (and he may well not be). Mong has strong TvP as a general rule, and has solid tournament credentials. I would be suprised if PSea can beat him. Maybe a prepared build, but I expect Mong has it. Hyuk, mediocre as he was in ZvT will still beat Tossgirl without difficulty. She just isn't at the same level as the rest of these guys. Mong will, needless to say, crush Hyuk, given his weakness ZvT in pro BW and recent return. Even if Mong lost to PSea, he would need to lose again to Sea at some point to be eliminated, and I definitely don't see a 2:0 for PSea incoming. This means Hyuk will return to face PSea. Mirabel must expect PSea to win this match, but that isn't happening. PSea had what could be at best describe as mediocre PvZ, whereas Hyuk was actually a very strong ZvPer from pro BW days. Asking a potentially rusty amateur to dismantle a very strong ZvPer in tosses hardest MU is a big ask, and one I quite frankly don't see happening. First of all, "Sea." is his clan tag, "KH", for "Kyung Hoon" is his progamer name. I'd initially written it like that but we edited it out because two letters is kind of an eyesore. (Firebathero's iCCup tag of late has been "Q", lol).
Second, no matter how rusty KH is, he's posted results in the same scene that Mong once dominated and I don't think Hyuk has provided a single admirable ZvP since retiring. Feel free to cite my oversights, but I've only witnessed his failures in that matchup this past year.
I'm glad you also think Mong will 2-0 this group easily, but the current skill levels of the other two are both extremely uncertain. Therefore I picked KH over Hyuk because he was the one I couldn't prove sucked recently. If I was favoring players based on their legacy and not their recent results, I'd have followed my heart and picked FBH and Kwanro over their less-established competition.
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wtf, did not realize my cousin's still progaming. xD I should call him more. Whatever, gogo Sang Bong hyung!
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( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)STYLE START SBENU( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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Canada5154 Posts
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I missed last night's games, but I jus took a quick look at the LR thread, and seeing 70+ pages while it as at an unwatchable time for Europeans just made my day <3
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Northern Ireland461 Posts
It makes me feel really safe to think that if LotV is a complete mess, BW will always be around
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TLADT24917 Posts
On December 25 2014 01:17 thezanursic wrote: Sayle casting? Ro16 onwards afaik.
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So now I will need 2nd computer to record all the new school Brood War stuffs O.O/ I can't belive Sonic really revived the scene... but good job ! Hope no craps like another match fixing scandal will ever happen >.>.
RTS Hype! (saying that cause im fan of both bw and sc2)
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On December 24 2014 11:44 Mirabel_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2014 07:24 L_Master wrote:Group D: Mong and Hyuk Reasoning - Mirabel picked Sea.KH, but I don't see that happening, even if we work on the assumption protoss Sea is in form (and he may well not be). Mong has strong TvP as a general rule, and has solid tournament credentials. I would be suprised if PSea can beat him. Maybe a prepared build, but I expect Mong has it. Hyuk, mediocre as he was in ZvT will still beat Tossgirl without difficulty. She just isn't at the same level as the rest of these guys. Mong will, needless to say, crush Hyuk, given his weakness ZvT in pro BW and recent return. Even if Mong lost to PSea, he would need to lose again to Sea at some point to be eliminated, and I definitely don't see a 2:0 for PSea incoming. This means Hyuk will return to face PSea. Mirabel must expect PSea to win this match, but that isn't happening. PSea had what could be at best describe as mediocre PvZ, whereas Hyuk was actually a very strong ZvPer from pro BW days. Asking a potentially rusty amateur to dismantle a very strong ZvPer in tosses hardest MU is a big ask, and one I quite frankly don't see happening. First of all, "Sea." is his clan tag, "KH", for "Kyung Hoon" is his progamer name. I'd initially written it like that but we edited it out because two letters is kind of an eyesore. (Firebathero's iCCup tag of late has been "Q", lol). Second, no matter how rusty KH is, he's posted results in the same scene that Mong once dominated and I don't think Hyuk has provided a single admirable ZvP since retiring. Feel free to cite my oversights, but I've only witnessed his failures in that matchup this past year. I'm glad you also think Mong will 2-0 this group easily, but the current skill levels of the other two are both extremely uncertain. Therefore I picked KH over Hyuk because he was the one I couldn't prove sucked recently. If I was favoring players based on their legacy and not their recent results, I'd have followed my heart and picked FBH and Kwanro over their less-established competition.
Ah didn't realize that KH was his name, but that does make more sense.
Agreed the skill levels are uncertain, however amateurs rarely fell well against pros, and KH's lack of recent activity and generally poor PvT statistically do not bode well for him against Mong who's TvP is always solid and has looked even better of late.
I'm going to assume we don't need to even debate whether Mong beats Tossgirl or Hyuk, as Tossgirl is far lower skill than any other player in the tour, and Hyuk had completely hopeless ZvT to begin with, and with no quality results or practice evidence from him there is no reason to think that has changed.
Hyuk is certainly the X-factor, and we have very little to go off from him in terms of games. As near as I can tell he hasn't played any series since July when he was just returning. However, KH has struggled in the past to take series from mediocre amateurs such as mahell, beast, Zergman. All of which means in light of both players relative inactivity there isn't much to base of other than past history, and I'm taking my bets on a serious out of form Hyuk winning over a seriously out of form KH. 60% PvZ weighed against 46% ZvP vs amateurs is a heck of a difference. Perhaps Hyuk is hopelessly out of shape and KH has been secretly training like a madman, but that's about the only way I can envision KH winning...and if I was a betting man I'd say that isn't the case.
As for the past history stuff, you can't go off past history alone. Part of why I didn't pick Kwanro, because from what I have heard Kwanro has had injuries and been darn near completely inactive. I don't think you could favor FBH based on legacy though, as he was a mediocre player at best being thrown up against much more solid recent ex-pros that have been heavily active, two of whom are among the very best of their race at present.
However, given very limited information about current activity, and especially if players are inactive, past history becomes about the only tool we have for making predictions. KH was a mid level amateur that struggled in PvT and PvZ. I see no reason to favor him over a player with very strong pro ZvP, given lack of data on either player.
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What a great X-mas present. Great preview guys!
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Really amazing wirte up here. Not only is Broodwar itself taking a huge step towards the legend of old, but so is the coverage. This reminds me of all the great previews from years past. I cannot wait to see this tournament unfold!
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That Zero vs. Flash game makes me so angry just watching it.
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Whos the girl in the white dress in front of the pairings?
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On December 26 2014 17:12 FromShouri wrote: Whos the girl in the white dress in front of the pairings? racing model 최슬기 http://imgur.com/a/NEZXi
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Kind of bummed about the Bisu conspiracy but I'm gonna watch every game anyways. Just have to figure out who to root for now. >_>
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On December 27 2014 01:15 zer0das wrote: Kind of bummed about the Bisu conspiracy but I'm gonna watch every game anyways. Just have to figure out who to root for now. >_>
What conspiracy?
Awesome thanks!
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i am hyped as fuck for this
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There is no Bisu conspiracy, he just know how hard will be to compete in this tounament and most likely wont get to the finals and ogn = bad memories, so to keep his pride safe he just walked away to another tournament where he will start one round forward from ro 16 and has more chanse to win since most of the players will concentrate on two tournaments instead of one. A bit of pussyesque move, but i am not suprised since we are talking about bisu. Bows to Jangbi Tossgirl and Firebathero who arent active players for their courage. Im expecting much from Jangbi, since he dissapointed with his unpreparation for the last season, otherwise i dont see any real reason for him to show up for this tournament, tho he can do it just to give a hand to sonic's efforts.
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