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On October 22 2014 11:07 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote: But I highly doubt DPRK will ever provoke total war, just a missile here and there. And some shots and fatalities across the DMZ here and there. And some bombings of South Korean airliners here and there. Also maybe new discoveries of additional underground tunnels leading to Seoul here and there.
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On October 22 2014 11:24 riotjune wrote: And some shots and fatalities across the DMZ here and there. And some bombings of South Korean airliners here and there. Also maybe new discoveries of additional underground tunnels leading to Seoul here and there.
The North Korean Leader is a terrible one. He has completely cut off his country from any communication with Russia and China. Their economy is worth less than Bill Gates and day after day they're running that country into the ground.
Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost.
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United States24340 Posts
On October 22 2014 12:30 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote: Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost. This is the most scary prospect. Everyone in this thread talks about how NK won't do anything too extreme because the retribution will be severe. What about when the NK leadership has nothing to lose?
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On October 22 2014 12:32 micronesia wrote: This is the most scary prospect. Everyone in this thread talks about how NK won't do anything too extreme because the retribution will be severe. What about when the NK leadership has nothing to lose?
In that case, the south will just fortify the border and it'll look a lot like seeing 1,000 marines against 400 siege tanks in siege mode. The NK army is going to get slaughtered if they went on a full scale assault.
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United States24340 Posts
On October 22 2014 12:36 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 12:32 micronesia wrote: This is the most scary prospect. Everyone in this thread talks about how NK won't do anything too extreme because the retribution will be severe. What about when the NK leadership has nothing to lose? In that case, the south will just fortify the border and it'll look a lot like seeing 1,000 marines against 400 siege tanks in siege mode. The NK army is going to get slaughtered if they went on a full scale assault. It's not an invasion of a neighbor that I was referring to... just firing all the crap they have aimed already.
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On October 22 2014 12:37 micronesia wrote: It's not an invasion of a neighbor that I was referring to... just firing all the crap they have aimed already.
That's possible but it also gives the USA and the South the OK to light them up. I don't think they'll ever do that, by the looks of it they were probably hoping for the South to provoke them first but after 50 some years they never got what they hoped for.
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United States40772 Posts
That is perhaps the dumbest analysis of the situation I have ever read.
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On October 22 2014 12:37 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 12:36 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote:On October 22 2014 12:32 micronesia wrote: This is the most scary prospect. Everyone in this thread talks about how NK won't do anything too extreme because the retribution will be severe. What about when the NK leadership has nothing to lose? In that case, the south will just fortify the border and it'll look a lot like seeing 1,000 marines against 400 siege tanks in siege mode. The NK army is going to get slaughtered if they went on a full scale assault. It's not an invasion of a neighbor that I was referring to... just firing all the crap they have aimed already.
I don't really have any specific information to support this, but I don't think it's as though NK has a legion of missiles and mortars all primed on SK and ready to pull the trigger. SK and the west have the drone/satellite intel on NK to know if a full-scale deployment of all of their weapons was occurring before it happens.
The worst case likely scenario would be that they fire what they *do* have, a few hundred to a few thousand South Koreans are killed by artillery, and North Korea has been obliterated before the sun comes up the next day.
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On October 22 2014 12:47 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 12:37 micronesia wrote: It's not an invasion of a neighbor that I was referring to... just firing all the crap they have aimed already. That's possible but it also gives the USA and the South the OK to light them up. I don't think they'll ever do that, by the looks of it they were probably hoping for the South to provoke them first but after 50 some years they never got what they hoped for.
Lol, I don't even.
Where can I go to have a serious discussion on the internet?
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On October 21 2014 07:55 Cheerio wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2014 21:57 AutoEngineer wrote: North Korea may be the most resource rich country in the world.
$9.7 trillion USD in mineral wealth and possibly rank No.3 in the world in oil reserves.
Unified Korea will be quickly able to use these resources with projects from Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries, etc leading oil drilling, extraction and refinement. Mining companies from South Korea will take over mining projects.
Hyundai, Samsung, Hynix, etc, etc will establish manufacturing factories across northern Korea. New technology companies will also boom due to the enormous amounts of projects available for developing northern Korea. Hyundai (or some other company) may also become a leading military tech company, manufacturing tanks, aircraft, fighter jets, etc to maintain geopolitical stability in East Asia.
South Korean companies will use affordable North Korean labor for their manufacturing and other manual labor jobs. Diligent and productive North Korean laborers will give a boost to Korea's productivity.
Tourism in northern Korea will also boom, adding more GDP to northern Korea. The fertility rate of Korea will also benefit from North Korea's high fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman compared to South Korea's 1.18.
The economic burden on South Korea is estimated to be $500 billion USD. However the economic return is several fold and will enable South Korea to surpass France, Germany and Japan by 2045.
That's some high school level of economical research you got there. Or am I being too generous?
Instead of posting insults, maybe contribute something intelligent to this discussion?
Or am I asking too much?
On October 22 2014 10:25 Taf the Ghost wrote: Given what China has put up with to get Oil out of Africa, they'd have been all over a supply like that.
Actually, frankly, if NK supplies were really that huge, China would have rolled the Kim regime a long time ago.
Why would have China risked this when all they wanted was a buffer state? The Americans would have rolled all over them if this ever happened.
The Americans would have nuked the hell out of the Chinese if this happened during the Korean War. China didn't want to get nuked, especially when about 10-15% of its population died in WW2 and a significant percentage died in the wars that followed.
And plus why isn't China invading Middle Eastern countries and even Russia? They did not have the military strength and capacity to achieve this and it's too late now as large modern wars are won by technological advancement, not really man power.
On October 22 2014 12:30 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 11:24 riotjune wrote: And some shots and fatalities across the DMZ here and there. And some bombings of South Korean airliners here and there. Also maybe new discoveries of additional underground tunnels leading to Seoul here and there. The North Korean Leader is a terrible one. He has completely cut off his country from any communication with Russia and China. Their economy is worth less than Bill Gates and day after day they're running that country into the ground. Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost.
Their economy is worth less than Bill Gates? That's a funny one.
GDP is not even a reliable or accurate measure of economic activity.
GDP figures are all fake and fabricated, any modern economist will tell you this.
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On October 22 2014 16:09 AutoEngineer wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2014 07:55 Cheerio wrote:On October 19 2014 21:57 AutoEngineer wrote: North Korea may be the most resource rich country in the world.
$9.7 trillion USD in mineral wealth and possibly rank No.3 in the world in oil reserves.
Unified Korea will be quickly able to use these resources with projects from Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries, etc leading oil drilling, extraction and refinement. Mining companies from South Korea will take over mining projects.
Hyundai, Samsung, Hynix, etc, etc will establish manufacturing factories across northern Korea. New technology companies will also boom due to the enormous amounts of projects available for developing northern Korea. Hyundai (or some other company) may also become a leading military tech company, manufacturing tanks, aircraft, fighter jets, etc to maintain geopolitical stability in East Asia.
South Korean companies will use affordable North Korean labor for their manufacturing and other manual labor jobs. Diligent and productive North Korean laborers will give a boost to Korea's productivity.
Tourism in northern Korea will also boom, adding more GDP to northern Korea. The fertility rate of Korea will also benefit from North Korea's high fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman compared to South Korea's 1.18.
The economic burden on South Korea is estimated to be $500 billion USD. However the economic return is several fold and will enable South Korea to surpass France, Germany and Japan by 2045.
That's some high school level of economical research you got there. Or am I being too generous? Instead of posting insults, maybe contribute something intelligent to this discussion? Or am I asking too much? Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 10:25 Taf the Ghost wrote: Given what China has put up with to get Oil out of Africa, they'd have been all over a supply like that.
Actually, frankly, if NK supplies were really that huge, China would have rolled the Kim regime a long time ago. Why would have China risked this when all they wanted was a buffer state? The Americans would have rolled all over them if this ever happened. The Americans would have nuked the hell out of the Chinese if this happened during the Korean War. China didn't want to get nuked, especially when about 10-15% of its population died in WW2 and a significant percentage died in the wars that followed. And plus why isn't China invading Middle Eastern countries and even Russia? They did not have the military strength and capacity to achieve this and it's too late now as large modern wars are won by technological advancement, not really man power. Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 12:30 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote:On October 22 2014 11:24 riotjune wrote: And some shots and fatalities across the DMZ here and there. And some bombings of South Korean airliners here and there. Also maybe new discoveries of additional underground tunnels leading to Seoul here and there. The North Korean Leader is a terrible one. He has completely cut off his country from any communication with Russia and China. Their economy is worth less than Bill Gates and day after day they're running that country into the ground. Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost. Their economy is worth less than Bill Gates? That's a funny one. GDP is not even a reliable or accurate measure of economic activity. GDP figures are all fake and fabricated, any modern economist will tell you this. Mate, General MacArthur wanted to use nuclear weapons against China, but President Truman brought him down to Earth.
Also, the allied forces got chased all the way back to Seoul by the Chinese. Their intervention sealed the existence of the North Korean communist state, which otherwise had been conquered by the allied forces.
China and Russia are allied. Why would China attack them? There's no reason. And while Russia doesn't have wartime military production like say, the USA or old USSR did, you can expect a war between the two neighbors to be more one-sided than the last time Russia fought an Asian power in Operation August Storm.
GDP is not an accurate measure for communist systems, since in communism, tons of goods/services don't even have a monetary value you can tag onto them since it's a highly redistributive system and even external trade is fairly limited.
With that said, North Korea is incredibly impoverished and has tons of very severe social problems. It correlates with their very poor economy even by communist standards.
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On October 22 2014 12:36 Hug-A-Hydralisk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 12:32 micronesia wrote: This is the most scary prospect. Everyone in this thread talks about how NK won't do anything too extreme because the retribution will be severe. What about when the NK leadership has nothing to lose? In that case, the south will just fortify the border and it'll look a lot like seeing 1,000 marines against 400 siege tanks in siege mode. The NK army is going to get slaughtered if they went on a full scale assault. Sir, I think you're playing a few too many videogames.
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What happens if North Korea launches a missile and the US retaliates? Will China back up North Korea?
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On October 22 2014 18:14 SilverSkyLark wrote: What happens if North Korea launches a missile and the US retaliates? Will China back up North Korea?
Unambiguous and unprovoked act of war against the US will result in all out war between the North and US, South and NATO. Hundreds of thousands of people will die, North will be conquered and China will strongly protest something. I geuss. Why are these hypotheticals even that interesting?
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Why are you people even armchair discussing hypothetical invasions and "military strategy" for the invasion/war with the north, they have nuclear weapons.
Nukes.
There's no "hundreds of thousands" of civilian casualties, or "marines getting rolled by siege tanks". There's the whole korean peninsula turned into a cindercrisp. Pretty much end of story.
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On October 22 2014 22:45 BallinWitStalin wrote: Why are you people even armchair discussing hypothetical invasions and "military strategy" for the invasion/war with the north, they have nuclear weapons.
Nukes.
There's no "hundreds of thousands" of civilian casualties, or "marines getting rolled by siege tanks". There's the whole korean peninsula turned into a cindercrisp. Pretty much end of story.
Not quite so simple actually. They haven't done anything but blow up nukes in controlled environments underground. On top of that their rocket technology is still decades behind the times. I believe the North's ability to offensively use a nuclear weapon is some ways out.
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What if North Korea has been in talks with aliens for decades now and they are just waiting for the invasion fleet to arrive, then the North Koreans and the aliens will take over the world.
Should we nuke them now to deter the aliens from coming?
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just as likely as fowle being released without demand because a nuclear bomb was implemented in his body set to blow up after 168 hours.
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On October 23 2014 00:08 heliusx wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2014 22:45 BallinWitStalin wrote: Why are you people even armchair discussing hypothetical invasions and "military strategy" for the invasion/war with the north, they have nuclear weapons.
Nukes.
There's no "hundreds of thousands" of civilian casualties, or "marines getting rolled by siege tanks". There's the whole korean peninsula turned into a cindercrisp. Pretty much end of story. Not quite so simple actually. They haven't done anything but blow up nukes in controlled environments underground. On top of that their rocket technology is still decades behind the times. I believe the North's ability to offensively use a nuclear weapon is some ways out.
the thing is they don't need a rocket when Seoul is in artillery range, having Seoul nuked is not something you want to risk.
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On October 23 2014 17:08 Meavis wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2014 00:08 heliusx wrote:On October 22 2014 22:45 BallinWitStalin wrote: Why are you people even armchair discussing hypothetical invasions and "military strategy" for the invasion/war with the north, they have nuclear weapons.
Nukes.
There's no "hundreds of thousands" of civilian casualties, or "marines getting rolled by siege tanks". There's the whole korean peninsula turned into a cindercrisp. Pretty much end of story. Not quite so simple actually. They haven't done anything but blow up nukes in controlled environments underground. On top of that their rocket technology is still decades behind the times. I believe the North's ability to offensively use a nuclear weapon is some ways out. the thing is they don't need a rocket when Seoul is in artillery range, having Seoul nuked is not something you want to risk.
so that leaves what options ? agreeing to NK demands everytime he bitches ? what if they eventually develop the required tec to nuke seoul ?
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