TL Mafia XVIII
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
There has been some debate about whether discussing clues this early on in the game is beneficial or detrimental to the health of the town, but I would just like to give my input. As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea. (That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!) However, I do think that there are more subtle clues in the Day 1 passage that may be beneficial to discuss, because they aren't such broad overarching themes like light vs. darkness/shadows. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen. These clues stood out to me.. They both concern reflection/illusion/mirror-images. I thought that such clues may be worthwhile to look at this early on in the game because they are subtly woven into the text but refer to imagery that is quite specific. I was under the impression that maybe there would be very few users with mirror/reflection/illusion references in their profiles, so I looked through all 50. My findings: + Show Spoiler + d3_crescentia What is love? A simple reflection of the state of our condition; that which embraces the dialectical play between I-and-Thou - always immanent, but ever transcendent; always between but never entirely encompassed; always now, but also then and forever. Thus we find love in the here and now, as mirrors of our destinies, of our eternities. Phrujbaz The board is a mirror of the mind of the players as the moments pass. When a master studies the record of a game he can tell at what point greed overtook the pupil, when he became tired, when he fell into stupidity, and when the maid came by with tea. 789 I can see what you see not— Vision milky, then eyes rot. When you turn, they will be gone, Whispering their hidden song. Then you see what cannot be— Shadows move where light should be. Out of darkness, out of mind, Cast down into the Halls of the Blind. I'm going to have to admit though that my search was not as successful as I thought it'd be. Only three profiles had references to mirrors/reflections/illusions, which may be a good thing, but they're all kind of a stretch/only loosely connected (especially d3's and Phrujbaz's). I am only slightly more inclined to 789's because in addition his quote "Tell your assassin to aim for her head, because she has no heart." may relate to dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting. The phrase "most accurate gun" seems odd to me and I would think that it is a clue. Disclaimer: I am definitely not accusing these 3 people at this point in time. As a newbie to this game, I am not familiar to how tightly Incognito constructs his clues/how closely they're linked, etc. Would appreciate any veterans' input. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote: Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed. The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire. I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman. Haha I did also say this in the next paragraph though: (That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!) In any case, I think we have to vote for the Mayor/Pardoner soon, so it would be useful to know who's running and other info. Procrastinating from doing homework.. ergo a catch up for people lost in the sea of posts/just compiling what has been said so far. Mayor Candidate | Reason to vote | Who they will lynch and why (info objective: as given in their platforms) The Good | The Bad (info subjective: the general publics opinion) BloodyC0bbler | The voice of unity and strength | ? Very experienced | Platform has no substance, therefore suspicious when compared to prev. platforms Chezinzu | N/A (lol) | ? Fresh blood | Pointless spam L | Excellent clue-analyzer (his name is L for gods sake people lol) | Ace I'm guessing? For strong clue-linkage? Also mentioned Chez or an inactive. Very experienced, very successful in the past | Overly aggressive strategy towards Ace? l10f | He has a blue star/is awesome | Mafia member who killed him off last game/Chezinu (joke answers i believe) Fresh? | Has proposed no game plan or given any serious answers. Bill Murray | Liberty, equality, power | Whoever the majority wants Will listen to the public voice | Will just jump on the band-wagon Meeple | Active, prev. experience as mayor turned out well | ? Unbiased, impartial, observant | no criticism so far DoctorHelevetica | He finds it nice to have a special role | Bloodyc0bbler for suspicious platform Fair, will listen to public | no criticism so far I'm personally leaning towards L for mayor but am wary of Ace being innocent and as a valuable asset being killed off so early in game. As a note to quickstriker, out of say 6 people running, assume 1 from each family will be in the elections. Normally a family would put forth 1 possibly 2 members (this case not as safe as the other family is watching) so most likely 1 from each family, maybe one family put ahead 2. So as BloodyC0bbler has said, we should expect at least two of these candidates to be mafia members? HMM D: SO MANY QUESTIONS SO FEW ANSWERS | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 14 2010 16:21 madnessman wrote: Haha I did also say this in the next paragraph though: In any case, I think we have to vote for the Mayor/Pardoner soon, so it would be useful to know who's running and other info. Procrastinating from doing homework.. ergo a catch up for people lost in the sea of posts/just compiling what has been said so far. Mayor Candidate | Reason to vote | Who they will lynch and why (info objective: as given in their platforms) The Good | The Bad (info subjective: the general publics opinion) BloodyC0bbler | The voice of unity and strength | ? Very experienced | Platform has no substance, therefore suspicious when compared to prev. platforms Chezinzu | N/A (lol) | ? Fresh blood | Pointless spam L | Excellent clue-analyzer (his name is L for gods sake people lol) | Ace I'm guessing? For strong clue-linkage? Also mentioned Chez or an inactive. Very experienced, very successful in the past | Overly aggressive strategy towards Ace? l10f | He has a blue star/is awesome | Mafia member who killed him off last game/Chezinu (joke answers i believe) Fresh? | Has proposed no game plan or given any serious answers. Bill Murray | Liberty, equality, power | Whoever the majority wants Will listen to the public voice | Will just jump on the band-wagon Meeple | Active, prev. experience as mayor turned out well | ? Unbiased, impartial, observant | no criticism so far DoctorHelevetica | He finds it nice to have a special role | Bloodyc0bbler for suspicious platform Fair, will listen to public | no criticism so far I'm personally leaning towards L for mayor but am wary of Ace being innocent and as a valuable asset being killed off so early in game. So as BloodyC0bbler has said, we should expect at least two of these candidates to be mafia members? HMM D: SO MANY QUESTIONS SO FEW ANSWERS shit mb citi.zen is also running. citi.zen | Qualified, viligante | ? Experienced, will analyze clues | no criticism so far and Chezinzu.. pointless spam.. or is it?! playing mental mind trix on us i say. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 14 2010 16:38 redtooth wrote: lol you're new blood and citi.zen is experienced. niiiiice. oh my bad i just meant that chez hasn't been a mayor before while citi has. didn't mean to offend, sorry >_< | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part. Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything. Clue Analysis: Day 1 Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice. Mafia A – The horsemen “Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.” “he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.” “Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.” “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen” “He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.” Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant. “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.” “The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.” “However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.” Analysis Mafia A I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used. The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective. I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651 It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote. I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked. The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly. This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture. Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad. The third one I have linked is Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter. Mafia B Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it. Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games. The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link. I'm going to this just because I don't want either one of the mafia teams to jump to the conclusion that I'm on their opposing team and kill me off While I can't argue against there being clues against me in the text, I do think your analysis is a bit weak in that 1. with enough of a stretch, you can link clues to anybody and 2. the madness connection might be a bit too blatant. With respect to 1, I think that trying to link me to the killer for running through a wall is a bit much, just because my desc. says "no pain no gain" and having guts. If anything, charging through a wall should indicate strength, force, power. But said walls are described as "thin," and probably wouldn't be very painful to charge through, so I think your point is moot either way. Maybe if the killer had charged through a brick wall, it'd be a different story. Finally, there is no indication that the guy who rips Incognito's head off with a laugh is the same one who charges through a wall. With respect to 2, me being the mafia because of "crazed psychopathic noises" would be a terrible clue lol. It'd be equivalent to Incognito writing a clue trying to pinpoint you, and saying: "the horseman trotted across bloody cobbles." I doubt a clue would be so blatant and so not clever, if you get what I'm saying :/. Tying me to "crazed psychopathic noises" takes no work whatsoever--you don't even have to take the effort to look at my damn profile. Also, what happened to: On February 14 2010 12:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote: They are interesting to look at mystlord, but however, day 1 clues almost always end up being red herrings, and random accusations, even backed by clues aren't too good for the person doing them unless they end up being right. I learned that the hardway. Clues aside, I would say that my posting behavior hasn't been suspicious either. I haven't been trying to swing votes or sway public opinion, nor have I been lurking/hiding. Finally, I noticed in your clue analysis that you tie random clues that are a bit of a stretch to two people in particular -- me and Scamp. Coincidentally, both of us are also voting L for mayor. Maybe this is a big insidious plan in which YOU'RE mafia, and you're secretly basing your clue analysis from analyzing the votes for mayoral candidates thinking they'll help you kill off opposing mafia members?!?! Lol the whole Scamp and me thing is probably just a coincidence... I'm just being ridiculous. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 15 2010 13:07 Chezinu wrote: I totally suck at this game... Everyone is so much better than me... I had a plan and it was total fail... I'm a noob... I have fresh blood... I'm annoying... I can't get people to vote for me.. not even a pity vote... tip 5 is my weakness... + Show Spoiler + Vote for me! because I don't have a massive ego! Or do it? chezinu is back! i personally think chez was hired by one of the mafia teams to create distraction/confusion/disorder lol. also as i said previously, when i referred to u as 'fresh,' i only meant in the sense that u havent been mayor before! not in the sense that u r noob, because i think u have a hidden agenda and tricks up your sleeve, all under the guise of cluelessness and pointless spam. geez -_-;; what do u have to say to that! | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 15 2010 13:11 Ace wrote: Sure. Why not? Also I act like I'm above the law and don't really care in most Mafia games. In the past ~4 games I've tried to just chill, sit back and let others do the work but then people become sheepish so I have to step in. This game I was called out before I even posted and I'm accused of being Mafia because I'm defending myself. Seriously this is getting pretty sad. but compare the way you defended yourself vs. the way i defended myself. + Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 12:57 madnessman wrote: I'm going to this just because I don't want either one of the mafia teams to jump to the conclusion that I'm on their opposing team and kill me off While I can't argue against there being clues against me in the text, I do think your analysis is a bit weak in that 1. with enough of a stretch, you can link clues to anybody and 2. the madness connection might be a bit too blatant. With respect to 1, I think that trying to link me to the killer for running through a wall is a bit much, just because my desc. says "no pain no gain" and having guts. If anything, charging through a wall should indicate strength, force, power. But said walls are described as "thin," and probably wouldn't be very painful to charge through, so I think your point is moot either way. Maybe if the killer had charged through a brick wall, it'd be a different story. Finally, there is no indication that the guy who rips Incognito's head off with a laugh is the same one who charges through a wall. With respect to 2, me being the mafia because of "crazed psychopathic noises" would be a terrible clue lol. It'd be equivalent to Incognito writing a clue trying to pinpoint you, and saying: "the horseman trotted across bloody cobbles." I doubt a clue would be so blatant and so not clever, if you get what I'm saying :/. Tying me to "crazed psychopathic noises" takes no work whatsoever--you don't even have to take the effort to look at my damn profile. Also, what happened to: Clues aside, I would say that my posting behavior hasn't been suspicious either. I haven't been trying to swing votes or sway public opinion, nor have I been lurking/hiding. Finally, I noticed in your clue analysis that you tie random clues that are a bit of a stretch to two people in particular -- me and Scamp. Coincidentally, both of us are also voting L for mayor. Maybe this is a big insidious plan in which YOU'RE mafia, and you're secretly basing your clue analysis from analyzing the votes for mayoral candidates thinking they'll help you kill off opposing mafia members?!?! Lol the whole Scamp and me thing is probably just a coincidence... I'm just being ridiculous. not trying to be obnoxious, nor am i saying that i had an amazing/flawless argument or anything, but laan is right. ur defense seemed to merely comprise of a "y'all dumb i rule!" kind of thing :/. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 16 2010 09:02 Bill Murray wrote: I voted for redtooth because after thinking about it, we can make him prove he is a medic can't we? Care to explain? | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 16 2010 09:04 sidesprang wrote: He won major if the last count was correct Oh yeah you're right. In that case.. On February 16 2010 09:03 madnessman wrote: What the fuck just happened here. redtooth claims to be medic. Sudden influx of votes for redtooth. If redtooth wins mayor he can't be rolechecked :/ Correction: redtooth claims to be medic. Sudden influx of votes for redtooth. redtooth wins mayor. redtooth can't be rolechecked lolol. what now pplz | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
Even though I voted for L, I'm beginning to think that the chances are extremely high. Basically, in this Gambino vs. Sumiyoshi vs. Townies game, it looks to me like the chances that a mafia mayor/pardoner is elected are extremely high. Why? The Gambino team has unity. The Sumiyoshi team has unity. The rest of us townies are in complete utter chaos. It would be so much easier for both teams to put up a candidate and get said candidate elected when they are acting in unity, as a coherent team operating under the same will and the same goals. On the under hand, us townies are acting individually; as a scattered, broken community, we each base our votes on which we THINK seems the most sincere.. whose rhetoric best persuades us. Ergo, it seems to me like it would be exceedingly easy for the mafia to get one of their own elected, ESPECIALLY given the total tally/vote count. Which is: redtooth: 10. L: 9. Each mafia team is already 10 people. With such low vote counts, a mafia team could single-handedly win their candidate a mayoral spot by their own members' votes alone, without any of the townies help at all. But of course the mafia teams would know better than to fully throw their weight behind their candidate of choice, as it would be extremely obvious -- both to the town and to the opposing mafia team - if voila! all of a sudden 10 people end up voting for one particular candidate. But at the same time they're not all going to sit back and let the elections past without their own say. Thus what i am trying to say is that maybe it is worthwhile to look at the mayoral candidates and voters. One question I had was: for those who are running for mayor, why would they vote for another candidate? Have any of you guys seen the movie Election? + Show Spoiler + Candidate #1 running for class president votes for herself. Candidate #2, deciding not to be egotistical, votes for candidate #1. Candidate #1 wins by one vote and wins the election. Given, this is a shallow interpretation, so I've tried to evaluate plausible reasons why one candidate would vote for another. Candidate #1 is MAFIA - Candidate #1 votes for candidate #2 because they are both on the same mafia team. Therefore, they have the same end goal --> get someone on their team to be mayor/pardoner, regardless of whether it is #1 or #2. Of course one being mayor one being pardoner is their most ideal situation. - Candidate #1 knows that his mafia members will swing votes his way; therefore, his vote is irrelevant. Votes for candidate #2 so he looks like he is looking out for the general will. Candidate #1 is TOWNIE - Candidate #1 votes for candidate #2 because candidate #1 wants a good pardoner by his side. However, he must assume that at least 2-4 of the other candidates running against him are from mafia families! Therefore, voting for another candidate, especially if you are a townie, is taking a great leap of faith imo. - Candidate #1 distrusts who is in line to be his pardoner/mayor. Therefore votes for candidate #2 who he thinks is most trustworthy. What seems suspicious to me is redtooth's voting. He voted for L. Yet there were many times during voting when they were tied or nearly tied (7:8), (9: 9)... Why the hell was he voting for L when doing so jeopardized his own chances of winning? Maybe he and L are on the same team. Maybe he knew he had voters in reserve (mafia members who were abstaining) who would last-minute vote for him if needed to, and therefore his vote wouldn't matter? Maybe role declaration was a ploy/an excuse so that when votes swung his way in the last minute of voting, it wouldn't seem like mafia members coming out of hiding, but innocent townies trying to protect a medic. Thoughts? | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:36 Zato-1 wrote: Yes, there are probably a few mafia among high-profile posters. There are two people among them who I believe are NOT mafia at this point- L and redtooth. L because he's been the single most powerful voice of reason so far and has provided the Town with leadership that might actually get us somewhere. redtooth, because of the post he made when he announced he would vote for L. At any rate, the important part right now is: It's night time. I said at one point that mafia are the men of action, the Town can only hope to direct their guns at one another instead of having them shoot randomly. Well, it's that time folks. If you want to do the Town a real service, post the names of those you think are mafia, and why you think that. It's in our best interest to help the mafia families to get to know one another right now. Yes, because... On February 15 2010 14:43 redtooth wrote: AND IF YOU THINK I AM TOWN ALIGNED YOU SHOULD OBVIOUSLY VOTE ME MAYOR. seriously you are electing citizen literally solely on the fact that "okay he was good in last game". he has said nothing this game. he has done nothing to show his town-alignment. why would you risk that? GUYS USE YOUR HEADS! L is pretty safe too. as a matter of fact i'm heading to the voting thread right now to vote L. ...is so convincing. Unless you were referring to a different post? If so, quote it for me please. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 16 2010 11:04 Ace wrote: @madnessman: If going with your post let's assume redtooth is Mafia: Go back to when he claimed Medic. I switched my vote off. Then I switch back on, with Emp and BM both voting for him also. With EMP flipping green it's not 100% certain that it was a Mafia split that tipped him over. If that's the case that means looking at the entire vote list, more accurately Bill Murray who was the deciding vote would "solve" your scenario. It would actually look more suspicious if Redtooth and BM had loose ties, aka barely talking to each other in the thread as that's surely a common mafia tell when none of them are in danger. However, I'm more interested in the early voters. With 2 Mafia families neither can wait around for swing votes unless they felt their candidates were strong enough to get those votes early on their own. Good point re: emp flipping green. Funny how he votes for redtooth though knowing that redtooth will lynch him. Could be in response to L's hostile pm's to him perhaps? lol. Either way, the vote count for winning positions in this election is so low that imo it would definitely be worthwhile to evaluate votes somehow...using your proclaimed "behavioral analysis" haha. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 16 2010 12:41 Malongo wrote: Ok. Then we force redtooth to protect a target from the town: me. As you see i cant not be in Redtooths family /if im mafia and so is him/ because that would be stupid. I cant be on the others family IM ASKING TO GET HIT and protected. What about that¿ if redtooth claims protection on me and he should be because that way he can prove himself then i will live. /unless there are stacked hits on me wish will be noted in the number of deaths/ If i die redtooth is mafia. THOUGHTS¿¿¿¿ There are many many flaws to this plan. HOWEVER I do believe it will work *IF* the mafia team that does not have Malongo or redtooth on their roster were to hit Malongo tonight, and none of the medics (aside from redtooth obviously) protects him! Reason why: Let's say 1. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo is TOWNIE - Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We know that redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A 2. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is MAFIA A - Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. Mafia B now knows that redtooth is actually a medic and NOT a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for Mafia B (Town remains ignorant as it has no way of knowing for certain that a hit was placed on Malongo.) 3. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo are MAFIA A - Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We now know redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A 4. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is TOWNIE - Mafia A hits Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. But because he got 2 hits does he die??? Ok, so DISREGARDING SCENERIO 4 because I'm unsure what happens in that case, if you are on a mafia team and redtooth is NOT on your roster... placing a hit on Malongo will benefit you regardless of whether he dies/does not die. (you'll have info on whether the mayor is on the opposite mafia team or is an actual medic.) and 2/3 of the proposed scenarios will benefit the town as well. Think about it mafia people ;D On a sidenote, in the case of scenerio 4, let's say malongo were to be saved despite having 2 hits (1 from each mafia team). then it really wouldn't matter since both mafia teams will still be on equal ground since they both used a hit on malongo. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
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On February 16 2010 13:24 Iaaan wrote: 5/6. Redtooth and Malongo are medic/townie, and either 1 mafia hits malongo, or neither mafia do. That's scenario #4. These are outcomes of the scenario providing that the mafia team that does not have redtooth on their roster DEFINITELY places a hit on malongo. | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
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madnessman
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On February 17 2010 09:43 Bill Murray wrote: let's assume that last person was chezinu, and redtooth wasn't lying. u have no basis on which to assume that. it's very possible that redtooth was lying and nobody wanted to hit chezinu. don't jump to baseless conclusions ;( | ||
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
Basically, I would like to propose to townies that we band together, unite, and vote in unison to lynch L. The basis behind my proposal is mainly behavioral related, with some clue analysis thrown in. These are my reasons: 1. The chances that a mayor/pardoner is a member of the mafia are extremely, extremely high. Here's what I wrote in a PM to DoctorHelvetica the day before yesterday: i wrote a post on pg 65 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913¤tpage=65), but to elaborate on it, the more i think about it, the more certain i am that redtooth and L must be mafia. mayor+pardonner are both incredibly important positions and gives whichever team (whether it be mafia a, mafa b, or town) who "owns" those positions an enormous advantage. the end tally was so low that a mafia team could EASILY get their candidate elected. there's no way a mafia team would let such a big position just slip from their fingers. itd be sheer stupidity. After looking at Foolishness' post though, maybe I am giving the mafia too much credit. Maybe there's a chance they played it too risky/were too disorganized and let a mayoral position slip from their grasp. But I think the chances of that are quite slim. A single team could singlehandedly have won the mayoral/pardoner positions given how many people abstained. (This doesn't mean that we should discredit the people who abstained/voted for other candidates though, obviously. As DoctorHelvetica was so kind to share: ) it is a game of 30v10v10, but the mafia know who their team mates are, whereas townies dont. and with so many people abstaining, it was probably fairly easy for them to have their candidate elected. you yourself were mafia last game, and ended up being elected mayor, were u not? surely u must know how much of an advantage each mafia team has over the town when it comes to elections what perplexes me is that redtooth voted for L. is it possible that they are on the same team? could it even be possible for a non-mafia to get elected? what are your thoughts on all of this. ill admit im wary of sending u this, esp. since i just realized u kept switching votes and ultimately u voted for L. i did too though..so meh. i might just post my thoughts on the main thread..it's so dominated by spam tho im almost discouraged against doing so lol. Yes. When I was mafia our strategy was to throw in just enough votes for me to be mayor. When it was clear I was going to win, I instructed several mafia voters to change their vote to a competing non-mafia candidate. As we can also see from Foolishness' post, a mayoral candidate who played it pretty "safely" and didn't rely on a last minute influx of votes was L. But many of the last influx of votes were green townies, and therefore I think there's a better chance L is mafia over redtooth. I am well aware that I was one of the foolish people who voted L for mayor, but the reasons why I did so I see now in retrospect are quite foolish. I voted for him because (a) he presented himself as a leader with a strong, decisive voice at a time when everyone was confused and unsure (b) i didn't think his profile had enough substance for incognito to write clues on. with regards to (a), I see how stupid it was of me to jump on the L bandwagon. First off, the fact that he presented himself as a decisive leader is something any mafia member would do. To hold influence over the town is such an invaluable asset in this game. with regards to (b), this leads me to point #2. 2. At first, I thought that it was impossible for L to be mafia because his profile has absolutely no substance whatsoever. I believe he wasn't able to upload a picture until AFTER the game started, and his quote is "YOU JUST DON'T KNOW." this isn't a reference to anything as far as i can tell, and is SO little for incognito to base claims on. i now see that i was quite stupid to think that way. while his profile/picture contains absolutely nothing for incog to base his clues off, his very name "L" does fit the clues. L is of course in reference to the detective character in death note. let's read this part of day 2's passage: + Show Spoiler + When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. what characterizes L (the detective) in death note? he is extremely thoughtful, clever, observant. the way the mafiaso acts in this passage just REEKS of someone with L's character. he plots/plans/observes/is clever and thoughtful. he doesn't just jump into action but is very sly and clever about what he does. he cautiously checks the room first. he checks the papers to see if they're important. he slyly tiptoes up the stairs so he doesn't alert his victim. he cleverly notices fresh tracks and follows them. with regard to the whole darkness and light thing, L's enemy is Light Yagami. perhaps the whole L hides in darkness because his enemy is Light could account for this part of the clue. 3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis: ... Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r] Bickering and madness references Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote: I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty. nemy madnessman mystlord phrubaz Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/ BRB 12 HOURS. and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler + The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler + d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia. SO i hope i have made a good enough argument that all you townies/other mafia team will consider lynching L tonight. of course i am not absolutely certain that i am correct in my accusation, but i've thought this through and i dont think we have much to lose. i understand that u all may be wary to lynch L; after all, L is pardoner and has the ability to pardon lynches. but what use is a pardoner to us who can't figure out the difference between mafia and townsman? as i've shown in #3, we have reason to believe that either his analysis is extremely flawed or that his accusations are heavily biased. there's no point in having a pardoner who MOST LIKELY will end up pardoning people who are mafia members. if he is a mafia member, he will pardon his fellow mafia members. if he isn't a mafia member, he will probably pompously and incorrectly asses the situation, and end up pardoning a mafia member as well. furthermore, the way this game is going down, it's now 25v10v10. we townspeople are STILL disorganized and disunited vs. two coherent, organized teams, and to add insult to injury, we're being picked off like flies. at this point, there's no point in our going after "small fish." we need to hit them now, and where it would hurt. like i said, i could be wrong that L is mafia, but i hope my reasoning has shown that it is worth it to make this gamble. in terms of calculated risks and potential gain, it is very very worth it. 4. on a final note, consider this: L claims he is such an amazing clue analyzer, but currently he is down 0/2. i dont base this as a reason to lynch him, as everyone makes mistakes. HOWEVER, if u scroll through the thread, u will see that he pushed for ace and emp to be killed/lynched both with extreme conviction. i myself am pushing for L to be lynch, but i acknowledge that there is room for error. L does no such thing. any towns person would hesitate and not be so ready to kill off another person, as there's a high chance (3/5th chance) that said person is a fellow townie, and killing off a fellow townie is not beneficial to the rest of the town. on the other hand, a mafia member would not be so hesitant because either way, as long as the person they accuse/push for ISNT on their team, he's either on the rivalry mafia team or a townie, both of which are readily dispensable for him. while i construct my argument on why it is worth it to take this RISK, L doesn't even seem to care about the consequences for the town if he is wrong. tl;dr: just read the bold points. we have strong reason to believe L is mafia. | ||
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On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote: So here are the mayoral candidates: BloodyC0bbler dead townie citi.zen l10f meeple dead townie Ver Ace dead townie redtooth Bill Murray dead townie DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_- maybe more thinking later Wtf?? Did I miss something? When did meeple die lol | ||
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On February 19 2010 02:32 L wrote: I am, however, happy that someone took the time to accuse me, because that probably means that of the 6-7 people I pointed towards today, 3+ of them are on the same team and are shitting bricks. I wouldn't see the motivation to write up a huge offensive post unless there was some if a single person had been cluefucked given the amount of leeway before losing kp. Additionally, the fact that you essentially admit that you're mouthing for DrH makes me think that you're probably innocent and that he's on their team. Late reply, but I didn't write that "huge offensive" post because bricks were being shitted. Shat? I did it because there was a lull in posts and I wanted decisive action to be taken. With regard to the doctor, I DO know what "mouthing off" means, but I'm afraid I don't know what "mouthing for" means :/. Speaking on behalf for, maybe? In which case I wasn't. Reason why I PM'd DrH was because he was mafia+mayor last game and I wanted to know what he thought were the odds that the elected mayor/pardoner were mafia. Plus he seemed like a nice enough guy to answer my queries and didn't seem like the type that would play super duper hardcore mind games. His responses completely lacked any real substance though, which made me quite certain that he was mafia, but not enough to call him out..so good call on your part I guueeeessss | ||
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PM's in spoiler: + Show Spoiler + Yes. When I was mafia our strategy was to throw in just enough votes for me to be mayor. When it was clear I was going to win, I instructed several mafia voters to change their vote to a competing non-mafia candidate. Considering each mafia candidate is in cahoots with at least 9 other players, there are a lot of ways this could work out. I've also noticed L's arguments becoming seemingly less reasonable recently. I'm gonna comb over them again soon when I'm not so busy. I seem suspiciously inactive but I am too addicted to this ARG I blogged about (http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=112469) to worry too much about mafia right now. One of them is mafia, no doubt. It is possible they staged their disagreement in the beginning. It's a common way to get people to not group mafia together. I was way out of it for the first half of day 1 because I wasn't paying attention which is how I'll justify most of my vote switches. At the time, I felt most strongly that L was pro-town, but now Ace is dead and he flipped green I don't know what to think yet. I'll give it some time and post my thoughts more comprehensively later ----------------------------------------- Original Message: i wrote a post on pg 65 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913¤tpage=65), but to elaborate on it, the more i think about it, the more certain i am that redtooth and L must be mafia. mayor+pardonner are both incredibly important positions and gives whichever team (whether it be mafia a, mafa b, or town) who "owns" those positions an enormous advantage. the end tally was so low that a mafia team could EASILY get their candidate elected. there's no way a mafia team would let such a big position just slip from their fingers. itd be sheer stupidity. it is a game of 30v10v10, but the mafia know who their team mates are, whereas townies dont. and with so many people abstaining, it was probably fairly easy for them to have their candidate elected. you yourself were mafia last game, and ended up being elected mayor, were u not? surely u must know how much of an advantage each mafia team has over the town when it comes to elections what perplexes me is that redtooth voted for L. is it possible that they are on the same team? could it even be possible for a non-mafia to get elected? what are your thoughts on all of this. ill admit im wary of sending u this, esp. since i just realized u kept switching votes and ultimately u voted for L. i did too though..so meh. i might just post my thoughts on the main thread..it's so dominated by spam tho im almost discouraged against doing so lol. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I'm really not buying redtooths defense that it's impossible he and ace are both in the same mafia and that he is 100% confirmed pro-town his arguments have been super inconsistent since the beginning of his posting. laughably so. I think either redtooth and ace are both mafia of the same family, or redtooth is a medic as he claims and is just using some sort of information gathering technique to decide who to cover. The voting history doesn't seem too suspicious to me. I can see a pro-town voting for redtooth to get a possible medic in a protected role, but it isn't a smart move since there is no longer any way for him to confirm he is blue. I'm torn about redtooth, but I'd be surprised if Ace wasn't a mafia, if he isn't that immediately makes me suspect L. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: sorry for taking a while to reply. im actually at a lecture right now, and on a crummy, minuscule netbook at that. what are your thoughts on what went down at the elections? with the whole role claim, ace switching to L, and then switching back to redtooth at the last minute, etc? if you're suspicious of ace, would it then follow that you are suspicious of redtooth as well? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: THat's fair reasoning. Was there anything specific speculation-wise you wanted to discuss? I don't feel to confident that anyone is mafia at this point, although I definitely suspect Ace. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: haha why thank u. reason i pm'd you was not to be passive aggressive, but rather i want somebody to speculate with/shed light on things, and you seemed the best fit to me. though i have no idea if you are actually mafia or not, i figured it wouldn't hurt to pm u. if you are mafia, you're looking for other mafia members as well so it shouldnt be TOO much of a problem. unless of course i ask you about members in your own group--in which case you can always feign ignorance. that was my reasoning at least... ----------------------------------------- Original Message: watching marble hornets and playing zone of the enders 2 im halfassedly browsing teamliquid atm. I'll be active later today, although i might be semi inactive tomorrow, as ill be having guests over ;o btw i like ur posting ----------------------------------------- Original Message: for someone who claims to 'spend their life on the internet,' where did u go suddenly? busy pming/posting elsewhere?! -.^ | ||
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On February 22 2010 09:08 SugiuraMidori wrote: Mod-kill hell tonight, will the town be all right? Will the lightning strike you into loss, or will you take out the Sumiyoshi Boss. What will we do with no town, after all their members lay dead on the ground! ... Why are you still here? Aren't you dead. | ||
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On February 23 2010 10:46 johnnyspazz wrote: so is the town conceding? rofl | ||
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On February 23 2010 11:08 Fishball wrote: Umm, why the **** did you just post this for? Apparently he doesn't care if the town loses. Heh. | ||
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I'm sorry to my fellow townies; I kind of lost interest after I wrote that massive post against L and nobody read it But in these dire times I will try to be more useful... After I finish my stupid 8 pg paper that is... | ||
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Day 2 On February 17 2010 09:47 Chezinu wrote: I vote for Ver Day 3 On February 20 2010 13:05 Chezinu wrote: I vote Scamp On February 20 2010 22:02 Chezinu wrote: I vote to lynch johnnyspazz. die Gambino die! On February 21 2010 16:14 Chezinu wrote: I change my vote to Quickstriker (Sumiyoshi). Please be mafia so that the detective will be real then I can make a deal with town and ask for a rolecheck and medic protection for another day. Your death is my only hope quickstriker! Day 4 On February 23 2010 11:27 Chezinu wrote: I vote L (Gambino) town killer! Even if you are town, we need to know... On February 23 2010 11:45 Chezinu wrote: I change my vote to QuickStriker (Sumiyoshi). I vote for Double Lynch. May the Circle Prevail. Remember Quickerstriker was confirmed mafia. Or is he just a miller? Day 5 On February 26 2010 12:50 Chezinu wrote: I vote Amber[Light] and Scamp On February 27 2010 04:49 Chezinu wrote: I change my vote from amber to to L (Gambino) I vote to save myself! On February 27 2010 09:50 Chezinu wrote: I change my vote from L (Gambino) to Amber[LighT] On February 28 2010 03:20 Chezinu wrote: I change my vote from Amber[light] to tree.hugger On February 28 2010 07:02 Chezinu wrote: I change my vote from Scamp to CynanMachae (Gambino) As a DT, I would like to know why he voted to lynch townies several times, and why he never informed the rest of the town who he role-checked. If anything, as the DT, he should given us direction on who to vote and who he knows to be mafia. Sure, he has voted for a Sumiyoshi before (Quickstriker), but as part of the "Town Circle" with redtooth and other DT's, surely he knew that if he didn't vote for Quickstriker he would look extremely guilty. Furthermore, when he voted for Quickstriker, the end tally was 20 vs. 10 or something, and surely he knew that his vote wouldn't count. I am very suspicious of Chezinu.. Let's say an anonymous person was a DT. I could understand that he would be wary to say "I am a DT, I role-checked person X and he is mafia, we must lynch him" due to safety reasons and not wanting to get hit. However, everyone thinks that Chezinu is already a DT. There is no point in secrecy and not telling us who he has role-checked, and who he knows is mafia and that we should lynch. He hasn't contributed anything as far as I can see, although I won't deny he might have contributed something but I didn't see it because he also posts quite a bit of spam. Also, if he was suspicious of Amber[light] or tree.hugger (and he definitely must've been suspicious of them since he VOTED for them), why didn't he just role-check them instead?? Also, is it coincidence that people who were blue+role-claimed/were part of the special town circle ended up dead, SAVE FOR HIM? Chezinu please provide a list of who you've role checked throughout the game. We also need someone who can verify your role checking, as it's easy in retrospect to go "oh i role checked masterdana and he turned out to be townie" or something like that. | ||
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On March 03 2010 09:32 XeliN wrote: They jump voted on johnny at the last minute without posting reasons why or trying to persuade others to do so, seems very mafia like to me, especially dozko who has consistently been trying to have me lynched but then randomly changes to chezinu and johnny at the end without posting. Also thinking about it chezinu is most likely innocent given the voting. On March 03 2010 10:25 XeliN wrote: Dozko definately, foolishness looks like it and no not scamp, madnessman OFC it is possible one or both of foolishness and madnessman are in fact townie which would complicate things slightly. Hahaha WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENED. Let me explain my voting, so whoever's the last gambino doesn't waste his hit on me. Drowning in school work, I completely forgot to vote, to the extent that good ol' incog PM'd me to remind me. Ergo since I was not caught up on the current mafia affairs, I voted on people who I was pretty sure wouldn't get lynched anyway and therefore my vote would be for the most part inconsequential. (at the time I voted chez had only one vote and foolishness had only two.) Perhaps it would've been much less incriminating if I had abstained, but given the poor standing the town is in, I figured I may as well vote on whoever I *felt* was guilty based on previous behavior rather than wasting my votes... (foolishness for not contributing to the town and posting "NOBODY CARES" repeatedly, and chez for a lot of confusing/misleading posts.) Anyways there's still a chance the town can win! Sumiyoshi have 2/8 chance to hit the remaining gambino. That's only a 25% chance, so there's still a 75% chance that the game won't end tomorrow! What we as the town must help the remaining gambino do is figure out who the last 3 sumiyoshi are so that gambino can get the sumiyoshi headcount to 2. and from there.. double lynch town gogogo! so chezinu is telling us that dozko is definite sumiysohi, but as I wrote in my previous post, I don't know how much I trust this guy, if at all... | ||
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that was in response to xelin btw. if that wasn't clear. | ||
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On March 03 2010 11:17 Chezinu wrote: BREAKING NEWS: From: dozko [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: don't do it! Date: 3/3/10 11:16 Its the gambino you should be worried about killing you. They are letting us win in exchange for some sushi. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Don't kill me out of spite! SUSHI AINT WORTH SELLING OUT FOR YO | ||
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On March 03 2010 12:52 Versatile wrote: welp, our next lynch targets should be foolishness and madnessman, obviously. assuming gambino hits dozko. "obviously"? provide an argument please? i didnt vote for the spazzoid. please don't base an argument just on the fact that i voted for chez+foolishness, as i dont see how that's a telling sign of mafianess at all. and please read my previous post on how it is of crucial importance that the town be VERY VERY sure that someone is mafia before lynch them, otherwise they lose. because if you lynch me, you waste a lynch on a townie, wont be able to kill off all the sumiyoshi, and will prob lose the game. just sayin'. On March 03 2010 10:50 madnessman wrote: So you want to lynch me only based on my last voting? No offence, and I'm not just saying that because you're proposing to lynch ME, but that's a terrible idea. Think about it -- the town needs to be as close as to 100% sure that whoever they vote tomorrow IS sumiyoshi. because if not, town loses. more or less. i'm just saying, if you want the town to lynch me, build a solid case. dredge up all my previous posting. analyze my behavior. bring forth solid clues that reference me. i'm saying this because not only am i fairly certain that my previous posts show me to be clearly town-aligned, but also because "oh madnessman voted shittily one time" is a terrible basis on which to propose to lynch someone, especially when SO MUCH IS AT STAKE. provided the town+gambino doesn't lose tonight, the next lynch is basically the sole, deciding factor as to town's survival and victory. so pleaes, if you're going to say "TOWN! LYNCH PERSON X!", you better damn well build a rock-solid case. | ||
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i have 2 remarks... chez how come u didnt tell gambinos that foolish was sumi? and also: wow, scamp was quite the awesome medic lol. | ||
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