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On February 17 2010 08:43 Bill Murray wrote: without detectives all we have are behavioral analysis and voting patterns, right? i don't see why a detective would roleclaim, they would get killed so fast, see: the last game i played
THe last game we played was totally different...
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On February 17 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote: his signature is "once, not long ago, there was a moon here" in the day 1 clue analysis it mentions the moon 4 times and moonlight once, so a total of FIVE TIMES!
how is that not clue analysis on him?
and in terms of behavioral analysis, he has defended redtooth and ace BOTH.
That kinda goes on the assumption that Ace and redtooth are red...
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On February 17 2010 09:00 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +Hi there, from your posts it's pretty clear to me that you are a blue role. Most likely a DT or medic. You should probably quit hinting at it so much.
You don't need to necessarily trust me yet and tell me what you really are. My innocence will become apparent with time and once it is clear I'll be waiting for you to contact me.
But I do want your trust and sooner than later; thus I'll be the one to offer the first gesture.
I'm a Mad Hatter. This is from a PM Ver sent me. In case I die, I wanted to pass this on. He might not be lying, but this and his supporting of redtooth made me believe he might be red.
Ver would you back this up?
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On February 17 2010 09:32 madnessman wrote: i thought that it was against the rules to post pm's?
That was pm's from the hosts. Afaik, posting pms from other players are fine
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On February 17 2010 09:35 Faronel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 09:17 citi.zen wrote: The obvious question to me is "why did Ver do that?" On day one no less. This. BM's behavior was rather erratic. So wtf?
Well, in the very early game BM wasn't quite so erratic... and since BM won't reveal the time of the PM its hard to tell
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Damn... there goes alot of green, so the mafia either aren't worried about getting each other... or did a bad job of it. On the other hand, one person survived, perhaps by the grace of a lucky medic?
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On February 17 2010 09:43 Bill Murray wrote: let's assume that last person was chezinu, and redtooth wasn't lying.
Did I miss where redtooth promised to save Chez?
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My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet
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On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote: Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet?
I thought Ver was hit... at least he admitted it.
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On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline.
The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects.
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On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: Show nested quote +As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first.
Ah... wings? Sorry I suppose, it really looks with her hand like she's casting the crystals away... I don't mean to pick on you, but either Incog is screwing you over, or you're red. There have been numerous moonlight references in the last kills, and I thought that the wish to terrorize in the day was because he couldn't, stuck at nighttime. And if you add in the fire kills (I know there's the gasoline to be explained) it still makes it really suspicious.
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On February 17 2010 11:37 SugiuraMidori wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first. Wow.. so like.. uhh.. that whole "terrorizing by night and day" Mayor anyone? First he blunders and kills Emp, a townie... now blunders and kills another, Ace?
I don't think the clues can be related to behavior. Rather I think they're just about your profile/name/sig...
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On February 17 2010 12:33 Ver wrote: The mafia most definitely did not blindly follow me; if they did Meeple and Mystlord would have died too. It's most likely:
a) Their suspicions coincided with mine on Ace and BC b) They liked my analysis on Ace and BC and did not like it on Meeple/Mystlord c) Mystlord/Meeple are mafia and the side(s) they weren't on simply didn't target them
Obviously the purpose of the lists was to get them killed. BC I was simply wrong about, Ace I was not sure but he was adding a lot of chaos to the town and not doing much good. Frankly the outcome of the day basically says nothing about my alignment. On the other hand, if you saw 3 reds from 1 family die and 0-1 from another, then you should start getting very suspicious.
If I was on a mafia team and I couldn't hit a single mafia or useful blue I would be uh...very ashamed haha (it's far easier knowing the identity of 9 players). Have you looked at the hitlists of games when I was mafia?
Am I really that high on your hit list? What do you still doubt?
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On February 17 2010 15:08 Amber[LighT] wrote: Ugh I went back and re-read starting from page 14 until about page 30 (so far) and I've gone through every bs post, stupid argument, unbelievable accusation etc...
People who should be looked at because they were misleading in day 1:
L: -Strongly advocates clue analysis and explains why its good in this game (pg 16) -Forcing clues to match Ace as a suspect (pg 17) -Shows us he sucks at math and doesn't realize that 8 + 8 = 16, not 18 (pg 19) -BC openly asks why L likes clue analysis, and L claims he has a "sterling" record (pg 21) -Still pushing for the clues against Ace (pg 23) -Wants to kill the moonlight rider, not necessarily Ace (pg 24) -Believes that the moonlight rider might be 789 (pg 24) -Believes the clues of fire, angels and radiance may point to Empyrean (pg 25) -Still thinks Ace and Mystlord are the two strongest lynch candidates (pg 25) -Claims that the clues are so strong and we must utilize them (pg 25)
Chezinu: -Just plain annoying to read (pg 16 - current)
Bill Murray -No explanation required(pg 14 - pg 30)
People who should be looked at who are extremely useless from Day 1 (first half or so and in no particular order):
Iaaan: -useless post implicating BC (pg 15) -Agrees with meeple about something (pg 15) -More useless gibberish (pg 16) -Feels that the mafia families are the best weapons for the town (pg 17) -Argues with Ace that clues aren't primary, but claims Ace said they shouldn't be looked at in the first place (pg 17) -Insists that L's clue analysis is definite and points to Ace (pg 18) -More useless posts (pg 19) -More useless posts (pg 20) -Again... (pg 23)
Meeple: -Everything :facepalm: (pg 14) -Twice again (pg 16) -Arguing with Ace asking for suspects and believes clues should be looked at heavily (pg 17) -Meeple then tries to give us a variable lesson after Abenson (pg 17) -More useless posts between him and Absenson (pg 18) -More useless posts about clues (pg 18) -More useless posts towards Chezinu, as well as informing us that we should hung mafia, no shit (pg 19)
Sidespring: -Weak clue analysis against Ver (pg 15) -Agrees not to lynch immediately based upon clues, but gives no effort in aiding discussion of any sort (pg 16)
Abenson: -Agrees with Ace, only because everyone "should" agree with Ace. (pg 16) -Let us know Chezinu PM'ed him on the 10th, thanks Abenson (pg 16) -Throwing out more useless information about a past mafia game, and trying to teach us about variables (pg 17) -Can't think of anything helpful to say, so he lets us all know (pg 21)
Fulgrim: -Comes in and talks about how clues are important blah blah (pg 18) -Votes for Ver because he has the best posts so far, congrats Ver! (pg 18) -Won't vote for Ace because he's not accusing anybody (pg 18)
People who should be looked at with a careful eye, not too suspicious, just not really helping...
Cyanmachine: -Claims he read everything, but never saw the list of people who were running for mayor, or their posts? (pg 21) -Still unsure as to who's running for mayor, proving he didn't read shit (pg 22)
Faronel: -Provides no contribution and rehashes everything that has been said in the past 8 pages (pg 22) -Made a newb mistake and edited a post, probably just a newb mistake (pg 22)
Fishball: -Always up for seeing BC dead, no reason (pg 15)
[NyC]Hobbes: -Rambling about how clues help the town and that it worked in a previous game (pg 20) -Rambles about how we should use clue analysis in the late game (pg 21) -Supports citi.zen for mayor because of his performance last game (pg 23) -Does not support Ace, ver, or L because of shaky analysis and finger pointing (pg 23) -Wants to kill someone based upon clues and clues alone, that person being Ace (pg 24) -Believes that going back after Ace is killed will give us insight about the players who accused him (pg 24) -Notes that killing someone like Chezinu is useless for the town, if our only reason is because they are annoying (pg 24)
MasterDana: -Ran for mayor on a shitty platform (pg 14) -Makes an even shittier post right after (pg 14)
I'm not suggesting anybody here is mafia, but they have ties to every player who was killed and have been contributing constantly to the derailment of this game within a 16 page period (except for the top three).
What? Ok... I wasn't arguing with Ace on pg 17, I was asking him if he denied the clue connection because up until then he hadn't even admitted it's existence. Yet again, I don't advocate clues I've said this before and I'm not sure where people are getting it. I didn't say we should lynch Ace on clues, and when I say clue links exist thats all I'm saying, it doesn't mean its a sure thing.
As for the Abenson thing, I misunderstood a part of the game and that was clearing it up...
You're totally twisting all my posts and taking them out of context. When I said we should hunt mafia it was in response to something L had said about playing the game differently because of the new format.
Also... what exactly on pg 14 is facepalm?
I said that I was running for office
I said that we should profile killers instead of focussing on details, citing an example from the last game I played
And I commented of how I thought BC wasn't that suspicious...
I don't know what you're seeing here... but please enlighten me
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On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote:+ Show Spoiler +3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis: ... Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote: I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy madnessman mystlord phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler +The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessmanBasically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia.
For the record, and I've said it before... that clue analysis is only a link, and there are tons of people that the bickering and stuff could point too but madnessman caught my eye so I threw it out there.
The clue could also refer to johnnyspazz... for both the spazz reference and his profile containing sonic/dr.robotnik as two enemies.
Nikoner has graffiti in his profile picture...
I'm not pointing fingers and its not totally without a basis... although madness doesn't really fit the description of that scene. I would be happier with some hillbilly link or the like.
As for L, I have no idea... he could have seen the same link independently, or perhaps the power of suggestion since he had seen the name... or perhaps he's a mafia bandwagoning.
I don't think anyone seriously suspects you on that basis, especially since I agree your posting is in no way suspicious. Anything clue related has to be taken with your eyes open to other things.
Now, about the idea that L is red... I don't think that clues are related to personality, but rather solely the profile and there is nothing about his profile that ties him to that killer, but that doesn't mean they don't exist, since we haven't got near enough clues to have every mafia have one pointing to them. L's calmness during the election might indeed be a tell, since he knew that he was always going to win and thats something I never thought of. I don't have your conviction about the matter, but I could beleive that L is mafia.
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Ohh... ok in deathnote... ok then sorry I retract what I said about nothing in his profile pointing to L
Thats a good link actually... the character in that clue is surprisingly detective-like
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Woooot... we got one! Two actually if you count Phrujbaz
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Clue analysis:
johnnyspazz
[Clue]Meanwhile, the second Mafioso made his way all the way across town to a small apartment on the edge of the city wall. Although the road to the residence was filled with many twists and turns, the Mafioso was able to reach the apartment without too much loss of time. The Mafioso knocked on the door, waiting for a response. Nervous, Zato-1 pulled out his shotgun, ready to shoot the intruder if he proved to be a menace. But Zato-1 could not have been more prepared for what happened next. As he opened the door, he was immediately knocked down and impaled by an array of sharp objects. The intruder was nowhere to be seen, although neighbors who have walked by the now open door have noticed a hole in the wall directly behind where Zato-1 had been killed.
johnnyspazz has a sonic the hedgehog thing in his profile. Sonic's adventures are full of twists and turns and Sonic is fairly speedy, so he shouldn't lose too much time getting there. Also, hedgehogs are pretty spiky things, so that would explain the array of sharp objects and the incredible speed with which the murder happens, even though the guy was prepared. Lastly, Sonic is known to curl up into a ball and travel at great speeds, which could explain the hole in the wall.
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Frick... I messed up the red name again... that's gonna bug the shit out of me... can I please edit?
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On February 19 2010 17:49 SugiuraMidori wrote: Okay... well.. found a second VERY nasty virus... be a bit longer than expected haha.
Why don't you just post it for him?
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