Micro-MAFIA (The First)
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citi.zen
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citi.zen
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citi.zen
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I voted for nemY for the "didn't have time to read the thread" comment. There were 3 one line posts in the thread at that point, give me a break :-) | ||
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On March 24 2010 08:51 Versatile wrote: damn. ##vote vivi## damn again, it's "Vivi57", innit'... | ||
citi.zen
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On March 24 2010 05:33 Versatile wrote: what the hell are these random votes? why aren't we discussing plans? if we're going to kill anyone randomly, we should kill someone who hasn't posted since the game began. Abenson Vivi57 things to note: johnnyspazz: 1 post, "why the hate on vivi" fishball: "oh, i'm busy, but lemme vote for nemy" citi.zen: random vote for nemy I don't get it. You ask for a "plan" but offer none. Most people either realize there ain't much to say at this stage, or... offer something as a suggestion. Then you go on to list "things to note", leaving out Ace's vote for some reason. Then you try to vote yourself, four times no less, making spelling errors every time. This is slightly more aggravating than the quip about "reading the three lines later" from nemY. Barely. As of now: ##vote Versatile## | ||
citi.zen
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On March 24 2010 09:55 Versatile wrote: umm, i never vote for myself, moron, as you yourself noted when you corrected my vote for "vivi" to vivi57" so wth are you talking about? i left out ace's vote because he voted for someone who hasn't posted once, Vivi57. and my suggestion was exactly that....voting for inactives. so you're wrong on ALL counts. unless you're just that stupid, you're purposely trying to discredit me. either way, the death gong calls your name. ##i vote citi.zen## Read what I wrote before calling me names: I never said you voted for yourself; I merely stated that you, yourself, tried to vote multiple times, somehow screwing up the spelling every time along the way. You will not be missed. | ||
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On March 24 2010 11:44 Versatile wrote: hey dumbass, it's not that i screwed up the spelling, it's that mod's voting rules are bit restrictive and i wanted to ensure i got it correct. plus, two of my votes were clearly jokes. and of course i won't be missed. i'm not going anywhere, asshat. Hopefully you will not be too distracted with the other mafia game. In a nine player set-up you are not helping if you're just going to drop in to insult other players based on your failure to read/comp posts. Anyway, I will drop it, you seem very cranky today. | ||
citi.zen
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Now, of course, a bad player who is active > a player who is inactive, so vivi57 may well be a better lynching candidate for today. | ||
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On March 24 2010 13:19 Ace wrote: no, a bad player thats active is worse than an inactive. Both of them will make the town lose but at least with the inactive player you know it's not because of stupidity. I guess both types provide "cover" for the reds, either by allowing them to drop off the radar, or by making it easy to mix in with a thick soup of incoherent/confusing garbage. It's a matter of which type of behavior is more damaging in a particular game. In this one I am tempted to say that, given the low levels of activity and the reduced list of players, inactivity would be a bit worse. We can probably filter through spam/nonsense. So right now I am inclined to agree with the vivi57 pick. ##Vote Vivi57## | ||
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In this game we have to get people to contribute/talk a bit more. Even if it's just shooting the breeze at this point :-) | ||
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On March 26 2010 00:04 haster27 wrote: How can we role-claim to him without getting it also known by anyone else when PM is prohibited? From the other game, but clearly that could be a problem here as well. No private PM weakens trust circles = trouble for town. Right? | ||
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I will change my vote. ##Vote johnnyspazz## | ||
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citi.zen
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On the other hand, given the activity levels, even if we did have another 50 minutes I doubt enough people would have switched. Odd timing for vivi to claim medic... and way to give up on defending himself. Damn it. | ||
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On March 26 2010 11:29 Ace wrote: Abenson 2 Mafia, 7 town. Sigh, Vivi getting medic was pretty much an auto loss from the start. In retrospect, I am not sure he played THAT badly. He stated early on he'd be going away until today. The today said he'd be away much of the day. Came back to a (small) bandwagon against him. Role-claimed, which was probably better than being lynched for nothing - as I stated above I think rational townies should have read that and let him live. I am curious why others who saw his claim earlier than me did not think is was worth switching their vote. Ace, in particular, I would have though would see this, so I am curious what his reasoning was. | ||
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On March 26 2010 11:43 Ace wrote: My reasoning is simple. I think Vivi is terrible. If you look at games Vivi plays he never helps the town. He just criticizes everyone and bitches and moans. This thread has only 7 pages and he's managed to accuse at least 3 people?! How is that good town play? Even with the last minute roleclaim he looked shoddy. When you are being band wagoned the last thing you'd want to do is accuse multiple people - they'll tend NOT to take their votes off of you in that case. Then again, your vote is on him too. Why didn't you switch? You could have voted for Johnnyspazz and tied it up, hoping someone else switched their vote too. What was your reason for not switching, because we all know I wasn't going to move my vote anyway. As far as I go, he claimed medic at the wrong time: I left work, came home and spent time with the family, until the kid went to sleep.When I did see his post and had time to digest it I decided it made sense to switch. Unfortunately it was too late. I don't get how other people who were active in this and/or the other mafia game during this time did not reach the same conclusion. It's pretty rare to lynch someone who claims blue, in any mafia game, no? Ace, haster27, Fishball, Abenson, johnnyspazz (other thread) were all active after Vivi's claim but missed that. | ||
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On March 26 2010 12:16 Ace wrote: ??? You must not know me ^_^ I'm one of the few people who'd lynch a DT or medic claiming Day 1 in a second. Why is that? | ||
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On March 26 2010 12:24 Versatile wrote: he hates 1st day roleclaims. they can't be substantiated until a death occurs for the most part. We all have times when we "hate" how others play, but in the end the whole premise of the game is you "play to win" not "play to eliminate those you feel are idiots". | ||
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On March 26 2010 12:25 Ace wrote: because they can't be proven and they usually have no reason to claim. If you're a Medic especially, argue your way to hell and back until you are 100% positive no one is going to change and you are sure you've made lots of rational pro-town arguments. If you RC you die that night anyway. If you live because people change their minds you live to make a possible protection. 1. He didn't role-claim until he was pretty sure to be getting lynched. Of course, I agree with you that a stronger player would have tried to argue their way out of being lynched instead. Still, this claim did not come out of the blue. 2. If a medic claims it's still better to let the mafia waste the KP, no? Why waste the lynch instead and let the mafia kill someone else? So I am far from convinced it makes sense to kill someone who claims blue. I am not saying claiming on day 1 is the smart thing to do, but given that some player does it, I see no rational reason to vote them off. | ||
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The Mafia knowing this, has a really good option not to kill the medic because the town will lynch him the next day. If the medic lives that night, the town can't go back and say "well maybe the Mafia decided not to hit him". Why would we? We'd be back in Day 1 a player short and in the same position. Next day there still isn't any good reason for the town to lynch him, unless the mafia happened to kill a medic during the night making it plainly obvious he was lying. Otherwise the same logic applies: let the mafia waste the KP and/or wait for a DT check or a competing medic claim/death to clarify things/provide more information. Then there's the classic argument of why would Mafia claim Medic when they are about to die - why not? The optimal play is staying alive.If scum feels a medic claim will confound the town, let him live another day and be able to weasel away with it then he's winning. If a red role-claims they are taking a major risk: the "real" blue is out there looking to nail them. This is a better position for town than what we have now. If the "real" medic somehow dies the town automatically knows the initial role-claim was false and bam, we have a red. The bottom line is that there is no reason for the town to risk killing a blue. Even if the mafia lets them live to spread confusion, or even if the claim was false and he was red, the town has more information. Again, I feel like you know all this and we're just going through the motions here. | ||
citi.zen
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There IS a good reason for the town to lynch him. Look, if the Mafia never hit a medic but always get their kills through the real medic is essentially useless. It seems wrong to assume an untrustworthy medic is useless. As long as they are alive, the medic can still protect people each night. Worst case scenario: they protect scum, and people still get killed, no worse than having no medic. However, there is a chance they will protect someone the mafia would hit, particularly in such a small game where it’s not THAT hard to keep track of who is doing what. What is the town going to do? Blame the medic? They can't because they aren't even sure the medic is legit There are no PMs in this game, everyone plays in the open & the medic decides what to do/who to protect. It thus makes very little difference if the town thinks the medic is "legit". Do you think the REAL medic is going to roleclaim?! Seriously? Which is going to definitely result in a dead medic that night - the same thing you want to avoid. If a red lied and the “real” medic is still alive there are plenty of scenarios where it makes sense for them to RC. For example… if there is only one red left in the game - the fake claimer. Mafia don't waste KP killing medics - thats exactly what they want. Medics aren't there to take bullets that is just absurd thinking. Once the medic is about to be lynched anyway they might as well try to take a bullet - it's better than dying for no reason what-so-ever. Play to win, not to get even, right? Then in a small game as this, you want the DT to RC the medic which just helps what I'm trying to tell you - the DT must not believe the medic claim. Else why would he "waste a rolecheck" right? :D I never said the DT should RC immediately. There are scenarios down the road when, if the DT is still alive and the guy who claims medic is acting really shifty or there is a limited set of suspects it might make sense to RC them. You don't ever let unconfirmed power roles run around. You don't let players live "because they might be blue". Unless they have very convincing arguments then they shouldn't be left alive. There IS no better position for the town. If you have an outted medic and the Mafia know they can get kills off with the medic still living THE TOWN LOSES. Point blank. Because the longer the medic lives in the open with the claim the more sketchy the medic looks. If a shifty medic lives a few more nights he gets to protect people + we don't waste a lynching. I guess if I live tonight, role claim DT tomorrow and say I got an innocent result on Fishball I deserve to live right? Because I might be a blue and no one counter-claimed me. As I explained before, if anyone role-claims blue I would assume they are indeed blue, or red, but at any rate not green. At this point you've sort of made too many confusing arguments for my taste, so I would be leaning towards red. The one thing making me hesitant is this: On March 22 2010 02:34 L wrote: I think this game is going to be worth watching from the outside to see Ace and Vivi go at it. Of course, if what's going on here is a pre-existing grudge it would mean you aren't doing the town (or yourself) any favors. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + I am going by this, unless I screwed up the counting: - The earliest the mafia can win is night 3. The chance of this occurring randomly is approximately 24%. | ||
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On March 27 2010 00:01 haster27 wrote: Lol I think nobody is paying attention to this thread that much to have pulled off maneuver that tried to save vivi57. Either way, I thought it did not matter b/c he was going to get Mafia-killed right after anyway, and we did not have any secondary clear suspect to go against. We also didn't have a clear no. 1 suspect though. The important thing is: do you think it was the right call to lynch him after he claimed blue? | ||
citi.zen
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Anyway, to this: On March 27 2010 00:58 Ace wrote: at the end of the day, you voted for Vivi to die and you weren't here to "save" him. I stick by my decision that he should have been dead no matter what he claims because he's terrible regardless. We can talk about and I can show you multiple examples of why you don't trust Day 1 medic claims after this is over. Whether you trust the claim is not the point. Especially with this set-up: killing a suspected red on day one keeps KP unchanged; killing a medic, bad. The downside >> upside as far as I can tell. Anyway. Nobody else seems to care, so... it is what it is. | ||
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Silence is good for mafia at this point. | ||
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On March 27 2010 03:43 Versatile wrote: thoughts? i wasn't around when the roleclaim occurred, and he was already lynched when i got back. what more is there to say? Do you think it was the right decision? Would you have changed your vote had you been online? Why/why not? | ||
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Rather, given vivi did claim (instead of defending himself) - what should a good pro-town player have done? Vote them off or not? Is getting rid of a weak player worth wasting a lynching and losing a medic? + Show Spoiler + As a side note, Vivi didn't intend to claim as a deliberate strategy, he only did it when it became pretty clear he was getting lynched anyway. This addresses both #1 and #2 in your post. Of course, I still think he should have argued his way out of it rather than flap his hands and say byebye - I told you so at the last moment. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On March 26 2010 13:46 citi.zen wrote: Next day there still isn't any good reason for the town to lynch him, unless the mafia happened to kill a medic during the night making it plainly obvious he was lying. Otherwise the same logic applies: let the mafia waste the KP and/or wait for a DT check or a competing medic claim/death to clarify things/provide more information. If a red role-claims they are taking a major risk: the "real" blue is out there looking to nail them. This is a better position for town than what we have now. If the "real" medic somehow dies the town automatically knows the initial role-claim was false and bam, we have a red. The bottom line is that there is no reason for the town to risk killing a blue. Even if the mafia lets them live to spread confusion, or even if the claim was false and he was red, the town has more information. Again, I feel like you know all this and we're just going through the motions here. On March 26 2010 22:56 citi.zen wrote: It seems wrong to assume an untrustworthy medic is useless. As long as they are alive, the medic can still protect people each night. Worst case scenario: they protect scum, and people still get killed, no worse than having no medic. However, there is a chance they will protect someone the mafia would hit, particularly in such a small game where it’s not THAT hard to keep track of who is doing what. There are no PMs in this game, everyone plays in the open & the medic decides what to do/who to protect. It thus makes very little difference if the town thinks the medic is "legit". If a red lied and the “real” medic is still alive there are plenty of scenarios where it makes sense for them to RC. For example… if there is only one red left in the game - the fake claimer. Once the medic is about to be lynched anyway they might as well try to take a bullet - it's better than dying for no reason what-so-ever. Play to win, not to get even, right? I never said the DT should RC immediately. There are scenarios down the road when, if the DT is still alive and the guy who claims medic is acting really shifty or there is a limited set of suspects it might make sense to RC them. If a shifty medic lives a few more nights he gets to protect people + we don't waste a lynching. As I explained before, if anyone role-claims blue I would assume they are indeed blue, or red, but at any rate not green. At this point you've sort of made too many confusing arguments for my taste, so I would be leaning towards red. The one thing making me hesitant is this: Of course, if what's going on here is a pre-existing grudge it would mean you aren't doing the town (or yourself) any favors. | ||
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On March 27 2010 10:07 Versatile wrote: yeah, yo. i voted for you citizen. what the are you questioning us for again? aren't you the person who was online and could have saved him? I won't make another comment on your reading skills so others don't say I am being unnecessarily harsh, but here: On March 26 2010 11:50 citi.zen wrote: As far as I go, he claimed medic at the wrong time: I left work, came home and spent time with the family, until the kid went to sleep.When I did see his post and had time to digest it I decided it made sense to switch. Unfortunately it was too late. I don't get how other people who were active in this and/or the other mafia game during this time did not reach the same conclusion. It's pretty rare to lynch someone who claims blue, in any mafia game, no? Ace, haster27, Fishball, Abenson, johnnyspazz (other thread) were all active after Vivi's claim but missed that. | ||
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On March 27 2010 10:17 Versatile wrote: didn't see that. i skip over most of your posts. i've decided they're useless. : ) Might as well stop pretending to reply to them then, no? Much appreciated. | ||
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On March 27 2010 10:37 Ace wrote: I find it funny that you voted to lynch Vivi but are trying to lay the blame game on everyone else. Hilarious. I sure did. Before he role-claimed. I am not trying to place the blame on anyone, just to get the town to think and contribute. "Play to win" and all that. Or not, we could just sit here silent and follow the other game. | ||
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@ Ace - I am not surprised at all. I argued with two people: Versatile and yourself. She died. I look suspicious. You are alive. As stated multiple times, I also disagree with your statement that lynching Vivi was the right call, even after you saw he claimed medic. It's all in the thread, town-aligned players would read those exchanges. I'll say this: take my posts out and you have nothing going on in this thread. Make up your own mids what, if anything, that means about my alignment. If we screw up the day 2 lynch it's 3 v 2 on day 3, so all 3 town players would need to agree to vote for the same red player. Maybe it's time to start contributing. ##Vote Ace## | ||
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You already know just like everyone else that Vivi claiming Medic wasn't going to change my vote. I've already explain that. Yup. You did explain, and I told you why I think your reasoning was questionable. The debate ended with you saying that you would explain further, but only after "this" is over: On March 27 2010 00:58 Ace wrote: at the end of the day, you voted for Vivi to die and you weren't here to "save" him. I stick by my decision that he should have been dead no matter what he claims because he's terrible regardless. We can talk about and I can show you multiple examples of why you don't trust Day 1 medic claims after this is over. Ok... suit yourself. Next sentence please. On the other hand YOU could have saved him. You didn't change your vote and now want to make it look like I'm at fault. I've stood by my decision wholeheartedly while you are not even acknowledging you yourself are a cause of his death. More sketchy logic/selective reading. Of course, I already answered this in detail, twice in fact, and directly to Ace. Yet he continues to "forget".For the sake of playing along, here is what I said: On March 26 2010 11:50 citi.zen wrote: As far as I go, he claimed medic at the wrong time: I left work, came home and spent time with the family, until the kid went to sleep.When I did see his post and had time to digest it I decided it made sense to switch. Unfortunately it was too late. I don't get how other people who were active in this and/or the other mafia game during this time did not reach the same conclusion. It's pretty rare to lynch someone who claims blue, in any mafia game, no? Ace, haster27, Fishball, Abenson, johnnyspazz (other thread) were all active after Vivi's claim but missed that. And no, even if my vote switch were on time, I still could not have saved Vivi by myself, since in the event of a tie the first person with 3 votes still gets lynched. Likewise if you take my posts out of this thread game activity drops also. Of course, "game activity drops" if you take any posts out of the thread. This is a moot point, different from my stronger claim: On March 27 2010 11:42 citi.zen wrote: I'll say this: take my posts out and you have nothing going on in this thread. Make up your own mids what, if anything, that means about my alignment. This is of course my own assessment - you all need to make up your own minds here. | ||
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On March 27 2010 12:47 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Ironically, I am quoting the dead here. I agree completely with Versatile here. Ace I don't agree with killing the roleclaimer and I think vivi did a horrendous job with it. The problem is that you logically are correct. You CANNOT confirm a medic claim without sacrificing the other medic. However the mafia are risking that there is not another medic in the game. If there is a medic in the game then what will happen is the medic just has to claim as well and we kill the first claimer, and then kill the counterclaim if necessary. The only problem here is that there is no way of knowing whether or not there is a medic so its a real risky play on mafias part. So I think killing a claimer either way is worth it. In this setup losing your medic or DT for a mafia is completely worth it. Either one cannot be validated since an actual DT would check someone and know if they were town aligned or mafia aligned and a fake DT would know who the mafia are. No role claims can be substantiated, ever. But I do overall agree, first day claiming is dumb, and as a mafia move it is even more stupid. However a kill-able offense is questionable considering how much more risky it is as mafia, considering counter claim = rape and you pointed out how much it can suck losing a mafia member real quick. Since even you Ace disagree with the depth of a WIFOM argument I am going to have to say you are mafia. We can say that Citizen argued with Vers because he read her role perfectly then killed her so that he would be "suspicious" because of his arguing with her, which would be what Ace would do because he knows how the town would read it. It is much easier (and goes with what you believe) to say that you killed Versatile because you had a read on her and either purposely or coincidentally Citizen had been fighting with her the entire time. Which would be Citizen mind fucking us. From day 1. ##Vote Ace## Sorry buddy, no scum in my city. Anyway guys, that is my thought for the day. I am going to head to sleep and I have 12 hours of work tomorrow so I won't be on again until late at night (another 10:30 EST approx) GL Anyone disagree with my analysys? My secondary suspect is Fishball, but I am not too convinced on anyone else <3 While I endorse your conclusion, I have to agree with Ace and say there is very little logic here. As far as I can tell anyway. | ||
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On March 28 2010 04:26 Ace wrote: what? assume one of the active players is Mafia?!?!??! Explain how this makes sense? So ok. Myself and citizen are the most active players. You guys lynch me and I flip green, then citizen being the only active poster is killed and flips green. So what do we do next? It's not an issue. If the town screws up this lynching the game is over. I've discussed why before. Why I continue to think Ace is the best candidate: wrong on the vivi argument; keeps ignoring posts, preferring vagueness and calling me "scummy" instead of discussing anything of substance. That said, Ace is known to be impatient with bad players (vivi?). Also, if he is green and accused by me it's only natural he would feel I'm red. So in the end I feel there is a 50% chance Ace is red. This sucks, given it's now or never. Still, picking someone else would be even more of a crapshoot. The hugely lucky Mafia + inactive town means there is nothing more I can do. | ||
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On March 28 2010 05:00 nemY wrote: Wow holy shit... Massive contribution, now we're getting somewhere! | ||
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Statement 1. Ace: 1.) I am not wrong on the vivi argument. You asked my opinion and I stated it. How is it that all of a sudden it's purely wrong even though you voted for Vivi? Whether you were at work or not isn't even a relevant excuse. We can't prove that. The point is YOU had a vote on the dead medic so you are responsible just as much as I am. I stated repeatedly, that in my view it was wrong to lynch someone who claimed blue on day one. I still think in this game the downside to lynching someone who claimed blue >> that the upside to going ahead with the lynching. You disagreed, and still do. This is where I think you are wrong. Note that this is not primarily a discussion about actions, but about strategy / reasoning. This could be an honest mistake, of course. By itself it proves nothing, everyone makes mistakes. Statement 2. Ace: 2.) Keep ignoring posts? I respond to your accusations every time and in fact have proven you wrong. Remember how you claimed being your posting level is keeping the game active, but when I said the same thing you just blew it off? That paragraph has two misleading claims in it. 2.) a. On ignoring posts - this was a direct reference to the fact that you repeatedly stated I could have saved Vivi. Example: More sketchy logic/selective reading. Of course, I already answered this in detail, twice in fact, and directly to Ace. Yet he continues to "forget".For the sake of playing along, here is what I said: Had you simply said you did not truest my explanation, I could have accepted that. Instead, you kept repeating in a matter-of-fact manner that I "could have saved Vivi". More deliberate confusion, as far as I can tell. 2.)b. Ace saying I blew off his claim to being very active. I addressed it directly: Of course, "game activity drops" if you take any posts out of the thread. This is a moot point, different from my stronger claim: This is of course my own assessment - you all need to make up your own minds here. Statement 3. Ace: 3.) Not discussing anything of substance? Hello? I'm the one trying to keep the game going. You've asked me about Vivi, RoL has tried to have some sort of lopsided discussion with me and I've posted about everything from lynching lurkers to lynching unproved claimers. Your statement here is a lie. Here Ace is responding to my statement that he repeatedly called me "scummy", which is a gimmicky way to make someone sound suspicious. Instead of substantiating his accusations he tries to deflect again and starts talking about Vivi, Rol, etc. I'll put under the spoiler the consistent use of "scummy" I had in mind - Ace has been using it on me from day one. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2010 14:02 Vivi57 wrote: I'm skiing (like I said, i'd be v/la until thursday) so I'll probably make this post tonight then one post tomorrow night and start being more active thursday night. Right now, citi.zen is my most pro town read. He's doing a ton of crap and moving around votes to get discussion started and also attracting attention to himself. Both of these are something scum doesn't want to do. Right now, I think my suspicion is on fishball. He posted a random OMGUS vote on nemy which in fine, but then he (jokingly) defended it I really don't like fishball right now, but since I have a bigger suspicion, I'm going to call FoS: Fishball As for my main suspect. Johnnyspaz just placed a random defense of me in the OMGUS stage of the game then placed a super late random vote on nemy. At that point, he should have come up with a decent reason because some discussion had occurred. ##vote johnnyspazz## On March 24 2010 14:12 Ace wrote: Vivi you are so bad it's ridiculous. "he's doing a ton of crap and moving votes around" - doing stuff is null and moving votes around is usually scummy. It's so early and not enough people have wagons on them so there isn't too much sketchiness about switching votes. However indecisiveness is usually meaning you can't make up your mind about something or just dont want to stand your ground, the latter of which is usually scummy. The read on fishball is cool, but knowing that guy he voted for nemy for the lulz. On March 27 2010 12:43 Ace wrote: You already know just like everyone else that Vivi claiming Medic wasn't going to change my vote. I've already explain that. So saying "even when you saw Vivi claim medic" isn't helpful at all. On the other hand YOU could have saved him. You didn't change your vote and now want to make it look like I'm at fault. I've stood by my decision wholeheartedly while you are not even acknowledging you yourself are a cause of his death. Likewise if you take my posts out of this thread game activity drops also. How does that make you more innocent than anyone else? @Fishball: Yea I know Verse better than anyone. Doesn't mean it's my fault she's dead. The more I read citizen's posts the more scummy he comes across. He points out that he argued with Versatile, she died, and he looks suspect. As if the notion of admitting he might be scummy clears him in my eyes. On March 28 2010 03:56 Ace wrote: And yes I think citizen is scummy but for fear of lynching an innocent due to lack of activity I'm unvoting. We need more participation. I'd rather go into the night with a no lynch and 1 dead townie and possibly two dead townies for Day 3. By the way, read that last post again - it's worth it. Statement 4. 4.) You say there's a 50% chance I'm mafia and it's now or never. So you aren't even sure I'm mafia and yet you think it's better to lynch me because picking someone else would be a crapshoot. Well isn't lynching me a crapshoot if you aren't even sure?! The 50% chance Ace is red is clearly a subjective number based on my personal impression. Note this is not the part Ace takes issue with. He wants to know why, given this 50% number, I think it is better to lynch him than to choose at random someone else. This is why: Other than myself and you, there are 5 other players left. The chance of picking a red by choosing randomly between the other 5 is: 50%*(1/5) + 50%*(2/5) = 30%. Since 50% > 30%, lynching Ace is the best I can come up with. It's "the better crap-shoot", if you will. Now, in this game we do have the no-lynching alternative. Interestingly, Ace voted for it briefly, before going back to voting for me. I don't see how a no-lynch helps the town, we would be in the same exact spot day 3, but it would be 4v2 instead of 5v2. Unfortunately there is no activity in the thread and the DT is dead. | ||
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It's suspect alright: there are only 2 reds in this game, yet he's accusing 3 people at once. | ||
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On March 28 2010 03:56 Ace wrote: And yes I think citizen is scummy but for fear of lynching an innocent due to lack of activity I'm unvoting. We need more participation. I'd rather go into the night with a no lynch and 1 dead townie and possibly two dead townies for Day 3. How does this suggestion not bother anyone else? Going into the night with a no lynch makes it 4 v 2 on day 3. No DT = no sure lynch. Also, the two mafia votes count more and more as there are fewer townies. | ||
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On March 27 2010 12:11 Fishball wrote: Remaining Player list RebirthOfLeGenD Ace citi.zen Fishball haster27 johnnyspazz nemY 7 players left, 2 are Mafia. I know I'm green, so that leaves me with 6 choices. If I vote randomly, there is a 33% chance I will hit a Mafia. Now lets take a look at the order of Zona's list of players. As pure speculation, it would be fair to say there will be a Mafia in 1-3 and another one in 5-7. Granted, this is purely speculation, as we already have 2 blues at the bottom of the list, and Zona might not have used the exact order to generate roles. There is a good chance that either Ace or citi.zen, that one of them could be red. This thread citi.zen has posted the most, with Ace being second. Versatile haven't posted much at all, just like me, Nemy etc., yet she was hit. Why? Previous history? Ace definitely knows her more than anyone else here. Random hit? Could be anyone. How random can this be? Of course people can say, "What if you are lying? What if you are Mafia?". Well to those 4 other Townies out there, you know who you are. I don't need you to believe what I say, but I want you to be aware of the situation. Long post saying... that since you are in the middle of the alphabetical player list, you must somehow be innocent? And that there maybe is a mafia in slots 1-3, and another in slots 5-7 (surely not 4 though!) - even though the blues were both bottom of the list? You've lost me. | ||
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Go ahead and lynch me. | ||
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On March 29 2010 01:08 Ace wrote: You've still got till 10 PM ET. I've also unvoted you as I think RoL is actually far more disgusting. RoL is pretty bad at times and so are haster and Fishball with his 1 through 3 and 5 through 7 crap. Ace's argument on the no-lynch is very suspect: the town is in bad shape, and it will only get worse tomorrow if we skip the lynch; we have no "sure way to win" - especially without the DT, so taking the best shot we can today is a must. nemY barely contributes and tells us he plays with his gut and he's not good at analyzing posts. Johnny ain't trying. I've done all I could to start some sort of discussion. I called out people repeatedly. I tried to analyze their posts. I am comfortable being lynched - I am simply at a loss as to what to do next. | ||
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##unvote ace## ##vote RoL## | ||
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On March 29 2010 02:52 nemY wrote: For the record I don't really understand why people are for a "no-lynch" today. You guys keep saying either it'll be a "4v2" or a "3v2" when it could easily be a "4v1" if we hit mafia. Ace provides the best option for this at least in my eyes. I seriously feel like he's playing most of the town into his hands and I fail too see how at least some of you guys don't see this! These are not bad points - it's similar to what I said: we need the 4v1, or we lose. I think 4v2 or 3v2 are both very bad. Since the DT is dead, I don't see how we can get much more information between now and day 3, so we'll back in the same place, forced to make a correct lynching based on incomplete information. We are delaying the do-or-die for no good reason, and in fact we'll have one less townie around. I am also concerned about Ace, as well as RoL... it's a gamble either way. | ||
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##unvote rol## ##vote ace## | ||
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GL town. | ||
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Bye-bye now. | ||
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Curious - was this your advice/strategy Ace? | ||
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On April 04 2010 11:47 Ace wrote: Yes from way way early in the game I told nemy to wagon me. It's a lot of stuff to write out which I will do later when I'm not lazy ^_^ Good call, won you the game. Well, almost :-) | ||
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On April 04 2010 12:00 nemY wrote: anyways what ultimately let to my demise is that last minute vote switch away from Ace; if i hadn't done it i would have been essentially "vindicated" and able to go on my way to raping and winning the game; but Ace and I got greedy trying to keep him alive I was going to argue on the presumption that I wanted to vote swap to get a rise out of people (because I knew FB was going to wait until the end to vote), and try to discredit haster as a lurker, but well... i thought i had another 24 hours! lol MVP is definitely Ace imo. He seriously raped/rampaged you guys and still managed to make it almost to the end of the game. It was funny because every accusation I made against Ace was true, but you guys ignored it for the most part. LVP: Vivi? Fball? Jspazz? idk, prolly me for thinking i had another day to win the game; all i had to do was vote for somebody first to win haha BS - your "demise" was failing to vote. Nothing strategic. | ||
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If I had to guess I'd say most townies didn't even bother to read my posts vs. Ace. Lesson for me: brevity >> detailed arguments. | ||
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On April 05 2010 11:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: lol how is fishball MVP? I didn't read the game much after I died but I was under the impression he didn't do anything. Worse than doing nothing - he was detrimental to the town for most of the game in my opinion. Perhaps she meant LVP? | ||
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