TL Mafia XXVI
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 03 2010 09:00 zeks wrote: The strategy to lynch inactives first day is fairly common from what I remember - but lets take a look at the day 1 clues first to see who we can string up. Why is it advantageous to lynch inactives? Never really played this game before =X | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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glhf~ | ||
onihunter
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DarthThienAn's post is a good list of clues linked to profiles. I suppose we could just pick from that when the time comes (with of course additional people that we link). This is my first time reading, but wow, tons of reading within like 2 hours :O. The OP was def not exaggerating, but this has been rly interesting + fun. Clarification: we only vote for mayor tonight right? No lynches? | ||
onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 03 2010 13:18 YellowInk wrote: Have you looked at my profile? There's nothing else in the entire opening flavor even close to linking to me, so if there's a clue pointing my way, it's the hot ink. If I were mafia, putting myself up like this would probably get me hung on day 2 or 3. Contrast this to anyone else who could run for mayor. There would be no way to even get close to cleaning them. If a mafia ends up winning this election, immune to rolechecks and no way to even try to investigate them, it can be absolutely devastating. Also, the DT can't use rolecheck 3 days in a row, but they can rolecheck consecutive nights. Your misquote of the rules makes me suspicious as to whether this was intentionally misleading or simply an error. I surely hope the real DTs read their roles carefully. I don't exactly see how you putting yourself up like this would get you hung if you were Mafia but maybe i'm just stupid lolol. We could cluecheck the ink without having you as mayor mirite? At this point voting for you is a gamble that I'm not sure I'm willing to take. And, a lot of the other clues have very few candidates as well; you aren't exactly unique in this regard. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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On June 03 2010 13:42 YellowInk wrote: The difference between me and others is that many of them are less clear and overlap. I would be willing to bet that we could try to put together a comprehensive list of how all the clues possibly attach to any of the profiles and there would be at least one mafia who we missed in that list. If someone has multiple clues that could possibly point to them, they're a poor candidate for mayor since it would take several days to clean them. Because I have a singular clue, it puts me in the position to be cleaned efficiently. Yes, if I am not elected to mayor, I'm sure a DT will still check my clue out and find that I am town. In this case I will be supportive in any way that I can. The point of electing me to mayor is that I can be efficiently cleaned in office where others can not. You will always have to wonder if the mayor is red. I dunno, the fact that you're trying so hard makes me suspicious...but nonetheless you have a very valid point. | ||
onihunter
United States515 Posts
However, if we just choose someone who isn't linked to any clues yet, thats about an 80% chance he won't be Mafia--which is much higher than my confidence level about YellowInk. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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due to RL, i won't be able to post/read for several hours, just a heads up | ||
onihunter
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As people are posting more, I'm getting a better understanding of their character and thought processes and such. This is my first game, but it's been sick so far! SO as of now, I'm leaning Darth until someone gives me a (good) reason otherwise | ||
onihunter
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remember, we have to unite and minimize conflict--failing to do so plays right into the mafia's evil hands. there are also a bunch of inactives still afaik---u guys should come out and post! | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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Wow if I read my last couple posts it sounds like I have a massive hard-on for him. <3. | ||
onihunter
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On June 04 2010 14:04 LunarDestiny wrote: Am I the only one that stress that we only need the mayor position and is willing to give up pardoner position to the mafia. My voting for Darth is that I hope he is pro town. If he is not, GG. The format of this game is very weird. The game is intended that each side will get either the mayor or the pardoner role (look at the ability of mayor and pardoner, check and balance). If Darth is pro town, then the pardoner role is almost a liability to town (that he might pardon two lynches in the late game). I also want to suggest an alternative that might be very controversial. To lynch the pardoner on day2. This way, we eliminate the possibility that the mafia running for mayor but fail and get the pardoner role. This is just an alternative that we can use depending how the voting goes. Again, this is all based on the fact that Darth is pro town (flamewheel, this format sucks so much for town) That's pretty much a coin flip, since, as you said, Darth being mafia is GG. I suppose him being pro-town is higher than 50%, so, based on odds, it's a valid move and theoretically beneficial. I don't think many people would be comfortable with that though.. As for thoughts on candidates Darth: General agreement is he posts like a townie, so that's a plus. Also experienced, but that's neither a plus nor a minus. He also seems clear-headed. Yellow: Posts a LOT. Seems quite defensive when criticized, and I can't really say that I like the guy =/. Just personal preference though, nothing really concrete. Also inciting lots of arguing and conflict that is unnecessary at this point in the game. Beardude: I really liked him until he responded to Inkguy's attack. His responses weren't that coherent though imo, and he seemed really emotional in that post to me. Also he himself stated that it's personal between the two now, sort of alienating me. However, he IS running for pardoner specifically. Zeks: There isn't really that much past the few posts that contained mistakes, so can't say much. Suspicious in that he's not a newbie to this game, but I think it's forgivable. Overall, no one's quite solid, but I'd say that Darth slightly edges out the rest. Basically even for the rest. | ||
onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 04 2010 14:23 DarthThienAn wrote: Thanks yo. BB said it WASNT personal. o.o I'd like to see zeks post s'more. Where'd he go? Correction: I'd like to see EVERYBODY post s'more. My bad, I thought I remembered that he said that he had a grudge or something before the really long counter-post. | ||
onihunter
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What do you guys think? | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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Between the two, I'm more comfortable with voting for DTA because he's less provocative and seems to be more level-headed. Also, Darth lacks any clues (at least right now) so I've decided (finally) to vote for him. Really, both seem fine to me, but my gut says DTA. My vote for first lynch would also go to laxer since he's on both lists, making him the best choice imo. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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onihunter
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onihunter
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Instead, letting new players who are currently pretty inactive individually adopt this policy if they wish to seems better. If the new player has a set goal every day, then he will probably encourage himself to post more and be more aware of his own activity level. I think YellowInk's idea should be a guideline, not a hard rule. I'll post some thoughts on the actual game when stuff occurs to me. | ||
onihunter
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Everyone should post. Not doing so hurts our chances and helps the mafia. It also could get you lynched in the future. There are really no downsides to posting. If you have no posted much yet, start now. If you have nothing to say, think harder--there is always something. That's all there is to it. Let's move on past this. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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The probability that the mafia hit no medics/detectives: 17/21 * 16/20 * 15/19 = 51%. So there's about a 50% chance the mafia will hit at least one medic/detective. | ||
onihunter
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19/21 * 18/20 * 17/19 | ||
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onihunter
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AcrossFiveJulys Posts since the game began: 26 Votes: DTA for mayor and MooCow for lynch Notes: First substantial post pretty late in Day 1. Questioned the wisdom in voting for YI, sided with DTA. Cautious about voting. #599: Emphasizes that he doesn't like posting on Day 1, as indicated by a previous mafia game in which he was an assassin. #657: Puts some heat on thegilaboy for being pretty defensive about getting accused and linking clues to specific people to draw attention to someone else #728: "Do not put 100% trust in MTF" #735: responds to a bunch of posts against him, accepts the weak clue links. Ends by stating that he'll post more thoughts later on some people #786: Suspicious at MTF for warning about double hits and the fact that he claims he got hit. #787: Doesn't like going after deuce, since he's most likely townie #790: Still suspicious of MTF #793: More defense of himself #795: misunderstanding of MTF and disturbed that he didn't clarify whether he's a vet/medic block #798: More heat on MTF #802: analyses on crate, littlechava, and zeks. thinks littlechava is more likely to be mafia, while others are probably pro-town #808+9+11: puts 4 other inactives into the spotlight as alternatives to deuce. #821: throws some names out who posted less after day/night 1 #825-present: starts pushing hard for moocow, for overplaying newbie card. links one clue. Thoughts: Very inactive on day 1 and then tries to justify it, might be a mafia just skimping on some work for day 1. Also, being inactive on day 1 isn’t actually super dangerous since there are a good 5+ other people. 2nd series of posts attacks MTF, largely based on misunderstanding each other. Might be a mafia trying to get the town to be suspicious of him, or just a townie being very cautious and somewhat creative and intelligent. Leaning towards latter. Really against lynching deuce, which might indicate that they are both mafia and he’s trying to cover for him, which is another reason to lynch deuce today. His gunning for MooCow I think isn’t strong enough for a lynch tonight, since this IS a newbie game. Lots of people on TL don’t read OPs carefully (god damn even though they should), so I think its excusable right now. Overall, I’m pretty neutral about him. Could be a mafia coming out from under the rock after day 1 and putting heat on some other people to divert attention. Or just a very cautious townie who really wants to get a mafia on Day 2 rather than lynch inactives like deuce. Will continue to watch for him. [b]For:[b] DTA, crate, zeks Against: YellowInk, thegilaboy, MTF, littlechava, moocow | ||
onihunter
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littlechava Posts since the game began: 26 Votes: DTA for mayor and deuce for lynch Notes: Some clue analysis to begin with on Day 1 New player, completely underestimated the activity of mafia Explains that he voted for Darth b/c suspicious of Yellow Says that emphasizing activity might be detrimental but later accepts it when it’s explained Agrees with YellowInk’s rule about analyzing 4 people every day Puts some more clue analysis out Would vote for zeks/thegilaboy if voting only on clues Says a blue role dying does not mean elected roles are suspicious Analyzes crate, hugoboss, laxer, and zyrre. crate and zyrre = good, while the other two are suspicious Critical of the MTF-conspiracy theory Thinks should vote for inactives, starting with deuce? Posts an angry post while drunk (lol) Thoughts: His posts are mostly all logical. Very heavy on the clue analysis, despite saying you shouldn’t vote solely off of them. Does some analyses of people based on posts, though not very deep. Just quick impressions, which are totally fine. Thinks should lynch inactives, which might be a mafia ploy (all the mafia could be reasonable active, so encouraging these lynches would benefit mafia). However, that’s not a very strong reason to be suspicious, since inactives SHOULD be lynched imo (actually a debate is going on right now lolol). So, nothing to really be alarmed about. Neutral yet again, although leaning pro-town. For: DTA, crate, zyrre Against: YellowInk, thegilaboy, zeks, hugoboss, laxercannon | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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On June 08 2010 03:07 littlechava wrote: Nah, I'm still right. All you've done is make a couple garbage posts calling me out, which I then defended. Then you keep bring it up again whenever possible, without refuting anything that I've said. @onihunter: I'm not against YellowInk or Thegilaboy at this point. I realize you're not really "against them" right now, so let me clarify. My "for" and "against" sections of my posts aren't extremely concrete, just what I gleaned from your posts as POTENTIAL feelings/connections. Small things that MIGHT play a role later, so I'm not saying you're really "against" them, per se. Next analysis: zyrre Posts since the game began: 12 Votes: YellowInk for mayor and deuce for lynch Notes: First real post used to support YellowInk b/c of his “aggressive style” Brings up an interesting point about clues—maybe far fetched clues = better Says that he doesn’t like spamming posts, suspicious of Zeks and DCL, but notes that zeks pointed clues at DCL More clue analysis Again says that he’ll try to post more, but lots of discussion happening while he’s asleep (fine since he’s in Sweden lol) Not suspicious of thegilaboy at all Can’t profile Tyranos b/c he doesn’t post much. Says a little about MooCow Thoughts: Not posting enough to do substantial analysis, plus some of his posts don’t really have much content. So just post more, since it’s hard for us to read you without more information. If you really are pro-town, this is for your benefit, since you want people to read you as that. So not really any feelings right now from me. New player? For: YellowInk, thegilaboy Against: Zeks, DCLXVI, Misder | ||
onihunter
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DCLXVI Posts since the game began: 20 Votes: YellowInk for mayor and no one for lynch yet Notes: Says that ink clue check clears YellowInk pretty early Says DTs not linking circles = good b/c of the godfather #278: Sort of distrustful of DTA (?) #370: Analyzes each candidate. “I don't like either of my guesses about YI or zeks, but I suppose zeks is the most likely townie. DTA and BB are hard to decide on.” Puts some heat on Tyranos at the end of the post Says that he doesn’t trust ppl very much in this game #389: “voted YI because at the moment DTA seems more likely mafia” “Seriously though, trying to figure out DTA is driving me crazy.” Somewhat distrustful of him? Agrees with MooCow that one of the elected is probably scum Says we should hang littlechava if thegilaboy flips townie after lynched, since littlechava accused him so quickly w/o clue connection and such Thinks voting off clues is a bad idea (multiple times) Puts out more of the MTF-conspiracy theory Thoughts: About 1/3 to 1/2 of his posts don’t have much content, so potentially putting on the façade of being active while really not, something mafia would do. Doesn’t like clue analysis, which might also indicate he’s mafia because clues are naturally always targeted towards mafia. Rather aggressive statement in the accusation towards littlechava, something that should be noted. More analysis of the MTF-conspiracy theory can also be mafia-like, since the mafia obviously failed to kill MTF last night, and DCL may be trying to make the best of that by putting MTF under the spotlight. I’m kind of suspicious of him right now, for the above reasons. Leaning more mafia than townie atm. For: YellowInk, zeks Against: Tyranos, littlechava | ||
onihunter
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On June 08 2010 03:55 DCLXVI wrote: @onihunter yeah, that was pretty dumb, I think I changed my opinion about that early on though I did not realize that people could change their vote at the time. I thought that he was voting without reading the thread fully. I still stand by lynching him for his inactivity if we decide to lynch inactives. I fleshed out the conspiracy theory and provided a solution... what is wrong with that? (besides my solution having a massive error I overlooked ) I was going to point out your error in having stated only my old opinions on people until I realized that I never updated my opinions in the thread :/ I probably should have noted that my notes are chronological; I just wrote down a summary of people's posts as I went through their posting histories, so yeah, their views could change dramatically since the beginning. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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onihunter
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On June 08 2010 09:55 zeks wrote: can you elaborate on how MooCow has contributed other than echoing / agreeing / piggybacking on other people's ideas? Ok, after you posted that, I went ahead and read all of his posts in this thread...which didn't take long at all. You're right, he hasn't really said anything substantial. My bad. I kind of assumed that he had to have said some good stuff since he posted so much but I guess I was wrong...I'm now seriously considering switching to MooCow for today's lynch. However, he does talk a lot so if he's scum it should be readily apparent very soon (I think LD said something like this). If someone gives me one more really convincing reason to vote for MooCow that hasn't been mentioned yet, then I probably will. | ||
onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 08 2010 10:27 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok omnihunter here's something that I haven't mentioned about him yet: So he follows mafia threads but is still completely ignorant to rules and still posts like a retard? ....Wtf I did not catch that. I wouldn't go so far as to say that he "follows mafia threads" and "posts like a retard," since thats only one thread and the only retard here is deuce, but that's a major hole in his story, since he's supposed to be a newbie. As I promised, I'm switching to MooCow (which probably won't change the voting results, but, hey, it might). | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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and akls;djf;laksdj poor moocow fuckkk | ||
onihunter
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On June 08 2010 11:22 LunarDestiny wrote: Sorry man, I was the last vote. Will probably take a more passive role from now on as my decision making is crap right now. I can't say it was exactly your fault lol...don't be so hard on yourself ^^ | ||
onihunter
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I also think it is likely that more people would have switched had the "initiative" started earlier--people probably didn't check the thread/read it all carefully enough to warrant a switch, since I do think AFJ's analysis was solid and worth a shot. Just a thought, though. | ||
onihunter
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16 non-mafia, non-leader players remaining, mafia have 3 KP. Still assuming 2 medics and 2 DTs: Probability of hitting 0 of those roles: 12/16 * 11/15 * 10/14 = 39%, meaning 61% chance mafia will hit AT LEAST one medic/DT. About 10% higher than last time. Iono if this information is particularly useful or not, but I calculated it to satisfy my own curiosity. So there you go in case anyone is wondering. | ||
onihunter
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On June 09 2010 07:02 Zyrre wrote: Analysis of onihuter. At the start it seemed like he tried to even out the votes on all the candidates, including bear and zeks, by being overly suspicious of everybody. This would be great for mafia since their organized voting would then sway it in favour of whoever they wanted picked. He then proceeded to talk about medics and who they should protect. Also asks the question to the town who they think medics should protect and so on, would obviously be great information for mafia. He posted some player analysis, but all of them ended with "seems pretty neutral, could be either" or something similar. Most outstanding was DCLXVI which he thought to be mafia. He bandwagoned early with deuce as lynching target, but switched late to MooCow. Also his response to the vigi modkill seems a bit over the top. This is the most suspicious posting I've looked at yet, high chance of being mafia in my eyes. As I recall, I was mainly suspicious of YellowInk (as were lots of other people), since he campaigned so hard and so fast. As for being kind of cautious about BB and zeks, I think that's natural since so many other people were feeling similarly (many even thought zeks was mafia). And about the medics and who they should protect, I wasn't asking for like specific names, just general principles that should be followed, largely to learn more about the game and previous trends. The fact that I thought a lot of players were "neutral" shouldn't be surprising at this point--it was pretty early in the game, and it's hard to have a strong feeling that someone's mafia (that's properly supported of course). Um...I was like 6th last to vote for deuce right before I switched. I can hardly call that "bandwagoning early." I also voted for deuce pretty late b/c I was out for almost the entire fire half of Day 2, as I mentioned in the thread. As for switching late to MooCow (3rd last), I had to mull over whether to change my vote. You can even see that, after zeks response to one of my posts, I was completely on the fence about the issue. I only changed my vote after AFJ gave me another reason to vote for MooCow, which, btw, was what I promised (switch if one more reason to vote for MooCow). My reasoning for voting for MooCow instead of deuce was thus: MooCow was ESSENTIALLY as useless as deuce, since he just echoed what others said while maintaining the facade of actually contributing and giving analysis. The late initiative to vote for him would also provide more information than deuce's death ("oh, he's townie. ok then."). The biggest point from AFJ that convinced me was his pointing out that MooCow overplayed the "newbie card." I think that's enough to justify my change, but, if you don't, feel free to question me further. | ||
onihunter
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Most people who know me IRL can attest to the fact that I'm rather "over the top" reaction-wise about these kinds of things (i.e. something ridiculous occurring). Why's it over the top anyway? o.o;; Sorry if it seems like I'm overreacting to Zyrre's post, but, you guys, please actually check if his facts are straight before buying his analysis. | ||
onihunter
United States515 Posts
How could you say I was "evening out the votes?" I was pretty much in favor of voting for DTA the entire time...And since DTA was winning by a pretty big margin for most of Day 1, I don't think that qualifies as an attempt to even out the votes lol | ||
onihunter
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One of his bodyguards is down | ||
onihunter
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On June 09 2010 12:37 Thegilaboy wrote: Going back to the survival of the fit line: 1. It could imply some sort of high status, a sign of accomplishment. a. Everyone with high SC league standings listed in profile: Hugoboss, 3 Lions (also liquibet champ), b. Tyranos has that super long list of accomplishments, implying a very "fit" individual. c. sputnik.theory has a list of accomplishments as well. 2. Any mention of winning/losing: zeks with the quote: winning isn't everything, it's the only thing; DCLXVI has quote about losers and winners. This all works under the assumption that that particular line was of value. Seemed to be in my eyes, what do you guys think? I'm pretty sure that line's important. It seems a bit...out of place, you know? The rest of the paragraph could easily go w/o it, and it's a bit random. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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onihunter
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I HAVE SO MUCH TO LIVE FOR... LIKE... you know those like little gooey things that are like adhesives on pamphlets and stuff? yeah those | ||
onihunter
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the awesome rolly gooey feeling when you roll them into a tiny ball just the right amnt of stickiness, not enough to be like an eww but enough to be like a "hey this feels nice" | ||
onihunter
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On June 10 2010 11:19 YellowInk wrote: Only scum like you would have such a perverted mind. ^.~ skaters gotta skate | ||
onihunter
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Nay thou. | ||
onihunter
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onihunter
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+ Show Spoiler + pretty please? :< | ||
onihunter
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On June 10 2010 12:06 YellowInk wrote: Pay no mind to onihunter. I would like to hear what people have to say about this list of suspicious people: BrownBear Littlechava Misder TheGilaboy Zeks Please do your analysis for today focused on these people. I find that offensive. p.s. killing people: a useful talent toi have | ||
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