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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
You directly said in a post (I quoted it on previous page):
"Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions.""
You directly told me (in PM):
"I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV"
Did I misunderstand something?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote: Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for.
Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play.
Can you at least tell us what you observed?
Well, time to vote... Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread? You seem so reluctant to vote, almost like you don't really want to. If you didn't think annul was mafia, you should have defended harder, or provide reason why we should lynch icemac over him. It's understandable that you would vote for icemac (better him than annul if you think annul is innocent). It's not understandable for you to just vote without giving clear reason. Unless you changed your mind half way through day (it's okay if you did) you thought annul was innocent the whole time correct? If so why not find a better target to lynch? Right now I think all of LSB/Barundar/icemac are innocent, that's why I made a case against you, however hopeless it may be. It seemed like you didn't want to kill any of annul/icemac (which is okay). But tossing your vote on icemac like you did tells me that you really didn't care if icemac died, and that you really didn't care to try to find someone else to vote for. That's not the kind of player I want in my town.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 28 2011 10:07 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 09:56 Foolishness wrote: You directly said in a post (I quoted it on previous page):
"Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions.""
You directly told me (in PM):
"I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV"
Did I misunderstand something? Wow, that is 100% what I actually said... Yes, I only called annul out. What I tried to do is to ask annul for reason why he switch his lynch and see if his reason is logical. Give me a break dammit, I reply your post after 6 minutes you sent me the pm. I didn't put much thought in my reply. Fault me for not doing what I promised. Your post is a defense of annul, you didn't call him out. People had already mentioned he was playing like he did in XXXV, you defended annul by saying "there's a difference between annul this game and last game. Last game he was using flawed reasons, this game he justified his vote".
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
LunarDestiny has yet to contribute much of anything:
On February 28 2011 07:18 LunarDestiny wrote: Barunder wants to lynch LSB and even is willing to go with sacrificing himself first to prove he is not scum.
LSB says Barunder's analysis on him read too much on few posts and contain many WIFOMs. --- First if Barunder is scum and wants town LSB dead, he won't be satisfy being lynched first. His posts after he 3 essay sized posts did not follow up with the aggressive natural of the essay sized posts. If he is mafia, he needs to get LSB lynched before he is lynched. Because he is willing to be lynched first, that just defeats the original point of his essay sized posts if he is mafia.
LSB did attacked back Barunder. This is pretty standard play and is very like LSB's play. Look back at XXXV when annul accused LSB as scum with shit posts that didn't make much sense, LSB fought back like how he is now. He justified it as putting some pressure back at his accuser and see if he will slip. Barunder did not and again is willing to be lynched first.
To summarize, I don't think Barunder is scum. LSB is playing his standard in terms of his responds (not saying his alignment is town). One additional thing to point out is that they really believe the other is scum. You seem to say Barundar and LSB are not scum (which is the same conclusion I drew) yet you provided zero help to the town about it. All you did in this post was summarize what had happened previously, without giving new insight to the town. It seems to me that you are clearly around a lot (you don't seem to be inactive) yet I don't see you doing much for the town here.
On February 28 2011 10:37 seRapH wrote: ##Vote: icemac In case it takes a while to read, was kinda gone the whole weekend kinda Very convenient for you to come in and vote for icemac (although you just got back so I'll cut you a bit of slack).
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 28 2011 11:39 seRapH wrote: Ok, all caught up.
LSB vs Barundar- LSB is the one who really pushed the annul lynch. That alone makes me doubt that he's mafia, regardless of how scummy the rest of his play so far might seem. Barundar, on the other hand, doesn't have the cleanest record right now. I'd be ok with lynching Barundar, since LSB has already caught one.
icemac- Getting scummier, really starting to suspect him now. It doesn't help that his lynch is meeting with a lot of resistance. Especially this late in the day. Feels like someone's deliberately diverting the lynch off of him, doesn't it? Personally, I say we go for it. When there's post that triggers a swing in votes this late in the game it feels super suspicious.
Also, it's the end of the day. The entire day cycle was spent with great bickering and squabbles between two parties. Everything was dandy, with two camps clearly lined up. No matter who we lynched, we'd have much more information to look at. But now people are jumping off and actively diverting the lynch. At the end of the day. For no reason other than because foolishness said so.
I hate that. I respect foolishness and all as a player, but that does not mean that we should just blindly do what he tells us. This isn't a battle between a few "priority 1" players, this is isn't even a battle between "priority 1+2" players, this is a game where YOU decide who YOU think is mafia. Is anyone actually voting for people they think are really mafia? Because at this rate, we're going to lose all the progress we made today. And that's bullshit. I'm voting for who I think is mafia, blame the followers.
I learned a key thing from reading the thread before my accusation: nobody really wants to kill LSB, Barundar, or icemac. Want proof? I make an analysis on LD and everyone jumps ship. My analysis is not complete, but there are important points worth addressing. I think most people here will agree that LD is a better lynch than any of the above 3. That's what I sent out to fix. I didn't want to see the town killing a player out of policy or killing a player they were only half sure about. I thought I had more evidence against LD so I went with him instead of Seraph. Even if he's not mafia at least we got rid of a mostly inactive player who's usually active. Step in the positive direction.
I'm also fine killing Jbright, right now I'm going to leave on LD so there's no last minute swing possible (hopefully, haven't checked the votes).
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On February 28 2011 12:04 Kenpachi wrote: Yea? well i think theres substantial evidence pointing at icemac.. Annul was well capable of changing the wagon on icemac but he didnt. he went for gryff. If icemac was town, he would have agressively changed the tides of the day 1 vote but he didnt. he accepted his death. ;l Just because annul went for gryff doesn't mean the mafia was going for gryff. It makes more sense the mafia tried to get icemac lynched, as opposed to blindly agreeing with annul.
But you are right, annul accepted his death. That's pretty important because it means the mafia have very little presence in the thread. Looking back at it, they almost gave up on annul before they knew he was going to die.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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Foolishness
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Thanks for jumping ship last minute guys. You really helped the town on that one.
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On February 28 2011 12:11 Coagulation wrote: foolishness your case against LD was pretty week. hes normally an active poster and not acting like that in this game but that is a big can of wifom.
So if somebody acts different during a game it's okay? I recall you saying you didn't want to kill icemac (correct me if I'm wrong) yet YOU are half the reason he died (the other half being GMarshal).
I don't care if you don't believe me on LD, that's fine cause my analysis was half done. I had to rush to post it because day was going to end and I wanted to try to save the town from killing someone they clearly were hesitant about killing. But there was very little reason to change to JBright last minute because 1) there was only ~30 min left in day, you can't expect to get 6-8 votes in that time, 2) JBright would have been top candidate for tomorrow's lynch, and 3) obviously, we ended up killing someone we didn't want to in the first place.
Sweet, what did we learn yesterday? Next to nothing. Now we are pretty much back at square one because LD and I are going to spend at least the next 24 hours arguing, which is going to make the town want to kill both of us. Furthermore, he's probably not going to die because everyone will start doubting me and reverting to someone else. People are probably going to forget about JBright because you are sitting there calling my analysis wifom (what does wifom mean again?) so I'm going to have to sit and spend hours explaining why we should be killing LD or JBright because we clearly have nothing better to do. (And we clearly have nothing better to do because we lynch someone we didn't even want to yesterday). Or I'm going to just shut up and get someone else to post against JBright because after what happened I don't expect anyone to believe me on LD.
At least if we had killed LD we would have either gotten a mafia, or had good leads for tomorrow (JBright, icemac, myself). I'll be active in PMs as usual if anyone cares about my opinion. I suppose I'll make a case against Seraph tomorrow just in case he's still alive in ~4 days.
On February 28 2011 12:12 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 12:09 Foolishness wrote: Thanks for jumping ship last minute guys. You really helped the town on that one. Why didn't you followed up if you really believed I am scum? I responded to all(?) of your post. Maybe later. I got better things to do now.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Oh whoops I miscounted one, somehow I thought it would have been tied.
Points still stand though. You can't have a bandwagon in 30 minutes. Even me trying to bandwagon in 5 hours is a huge stretch.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Well of course any reasonable vigi would be shooting Seraph tonight.
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As the person who started the LD case, I would like to say I think we should hold off on killing him for now. There are a few reasons I say this:
1) The initial reasons for me coming out against LD were because I looked at the day's lynch candidates (icemac, LSB, Barundar) and thought they were all terrible. Keep in mind this was with ~6 hours left in the day, so I had to rush to try to make a case for someone else. I still stand by with what I said in that LD was 100% a better lynch than any of the above 3 yesterday.
2) I'm not sure what to make of LD's responses. Some of the things he has said seemed to point to him to be town, others make him look suspicious. As long as he starts/continues to be active I'm not sure I want to call him scum. We keep him on a short leash and see what happens.
3) JBright and Seraph are both better lynch candidates today. There is already a well known case against JBright. In just a short while expect me to post one against Seraph.
4) We pressured LD because he was acting strange and he responded. We should be doing the same to others right now (Seraph, Kevconsim, Ohn).
I'm still not sold on the whole PM thing that happened between us. From my perspective, he said he would call out a proven mafia and failed to do so. From his perspective, he misunderstood what I said or forgot or something. Unless everyone else sees it from my perspective over his I'm just going to ignore this for now.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Seraph
As already mentioned, he has a very low post count. However we must take into effect that he said he would be mia for a portion of the game, which he apparently was. What's more interesting his that he posted a bunch pre game then his activity died off as the game went on. It looks like he made more posts day 1 than he did day 2, and more day 2 than he has today.
What could cause the declining post count as the game goes on? Keep in mind he was really active pre game. Either he's mafia or a bored townie (of course there's a little leeway because he said he would be gone for a day or two). Bored townie is reasonable: he was active pre game and at the beginning, but then got bored because he didn't have a role or because there was nothing cool happening in the thread. Mafia is reasonable: he tried to be active in the beginning, but as we all know mafia never want to post if they don't have to.
Given this information, I do not believe it very reasonable that he is a bored townie. This is one the very few games where we got a mafia lynched day 1; that's hella exciting in itself. The amount of spam in this game is considerably less overall than most games (especially yesterday and today), and we've only had 2 real modkills.
I looked through his posts in Pokemafia and mafia xxxv and found a striking difference (both these games he was town). His overall post count is not that high (compared to spammers like Coagulation and Gryffindor) but he has a lots of one or two liners. Even when he was lynched in mafia xxxv he made one liners right up to his death. This game his posts are moderately big walls of text, with a few one liners.
Here's one of his few big posts from mafia xxxv
On December 31 2010 07:33 seRapH wrote:SoulfireShow nested quote +On December 27 2010 13:45 Soulfire wrote: I had meant to contribute earlier, but I was watching some streamed games of my team's CW.
I'm a new player, so for the most part I've just been reading what everybody has said thus far and trying to come up with any reasonable conclusion, which not surprisingly has been futile. I've gone over previous games and observed common posting habits for many of the more veteran players in this game and I honestly don't notice anything alarming enough to begin to point fingers safely. I'd definitely have to agree with Pandain, Wiggles and others; focus attention on the inactives, but struggle to differentiate between those who just don't care and are probably going to be modkilled and people who are trying to lay low, specially people making pointless posts to avoid the modkill.
But I will speak for other players who are new like I am, it is difficult to post something that contributes in Day 1 - so yet another thing to differentiate: new players who are lost and can only agree with others, and mafia trying to slip under the radar and avoid modkill. Few points here: He’s new, he doesn’t want to out himself, and hands lurkers the excuse of not caring. First point isn’t incriminating, but the other two are pretty notable. Show nested quote +On December 27 2010 18:01 Soulfire wrote: Yet another vote for Pandain - can you guys seriously stop that? There's no reason to be doing that, and the only thing we know about him thus far is that he's been pretty damn helpful, and past games show that he knows what he's doing. There's no reason to be piling votes on people, and new players will just be prompted to join the bandwagon. Ok, fine, Pandain wagon was bullshit, I have no clue why anyone joined it at all, town or not. What I do find interesting is that apparantly Pandain is "pretty damn helpful" while LSB, evidently, has not been. Show nested quote +On December 28 2010 14:22 Soulfire wrote: Just read the last 5 pages, and like many others, paid attention to the argument between Annul and LSB. BOTH come off as scummy, but to be totally honest I think it's a safer bet to go with a lurker, for the same reasons that many have said - the more talkative a scum is, the more likely he is to make a mistake and thus be lynched. We have NOTHING to go by other than very slight hints in posting style. Our best bet easily is to lynch a lurker because they may continue lurking later on, and we won't be able to gather any hints from them that may identify them as scum. However, Annul and LSB will both continue posting frequently, thus increasing the chance that they may make mistakes and reveal themselves. If they all of a sudden STOP posting frequently, that'd be out of the character developed on day 1 and would be a pretty strong hint that they're scum.
Just my 2 cents. I don’t really get this. I’m thinking that if we can get Soulfire lynched or nightkilled then annul can be cleared of most suspicions. Once again he pushes lynching lurkers too. Also, people don’t switch roles midway (or at least not in this setup), so a change in character indicates they’re either dodging an accusation or real life problems. Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 08:19 Soulfire wrote: I've been on the whole "lynch LSB" bandwagon, but after reading Pandain's logic, even though it makes HIM sound incredibly scummy as well the the information fishing, I'm gonna vote for Brocket. When I read over Pokemafia he indeed acted quite differently, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was trying to hide under the radar.
But yeah, Pandain really strikes me as a mafia trying to save LSB - but then again, is there any way to protect someone WITHOUT appearing suspicious? Atleast he presents a logical argument. If LSB does not "prove himself", LYNCH HIM ON DAY 2. Completely dodges the LSB/Annul situation by going for a new bandwagon on brocket. Also staying under the radar by following pandain quite closely: Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 11:36 Soulfire wrote: Gonna actually have to agree with Pandain's analysis here, I didn't think of it the way he put it: We don't have much to go on, so we might as well guarantee important information with a lynch of LSB.
##Unvote ##Vote LSB Conclusion: Very likely scum. Not too many posts at all, and none of them offering any original insight. imo this is a better lynch than anyone else so far, but Mr Wiggles earns second place. If Soulfire dodges the lynch then I’d at least like someone to DT check him. Here we have him doing some analysis, which is great. It's not detailed or ideal but it's at least an honest effort. Compare it to his analysis this game:
On February 24 2011 17:07 seRapH wrote: icemac that was possibly the easiest way to dodge taking sides. The dude's probably going to get replaced or modkilled anyways.
Seriously, take a stance on someone. Most of my game since my 6666th post has been going on through PMs, but I guess that was selfish of me >_>
##Vote Icemac
Things to take sides on: GM vs Gryff- Cell System Annul vs LSB- XXXV
Personally I doubt either of annul or LSB are scum, this is just a grudgematch. Coag and Kenpachi are playing more pro-town than usual (or maybe its just less spam?)
People I'm suspicious of: Jackal- Playing a lot more passively than he did as town Icemac- Stop dodging the issues at hand Gofarman- Proponent of lynching inactives. Voting annul. A few more I'm not too sure of, will follow up on their posts tomorrow when I'm awake. Maybe. This post he hasn't said anything of value, other than giving and 8 word reason on people he's suspicious of (this was the best post I could find of us where he tried to give his thoughts on a situation that might be meaningful to the town).
Here's a post from pokemafia:
On December 18 2010 04:15 seRapH wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:55 ShoCkeyy wrote: Im going to vote for double lynch when we know for sure who's scum and who's not. I don't want to go off and double lynch two townies or two blues and then the town is fucked, because people like lsb doesn't know how to post anything that is worth meaning. I wish i could post more, but as i am out of town again and posting from my phone till tomorrow night when im able to get in front of a computer. Like i said, look at lsb, he's been "trying " to control the town and only has really put input only to me and says to lynch me. The reason why he keeps trying to lynch me is cause i hit a soft spot Holy shit this is so scummy. You sound like you don't think the town is in a tight spot here. We have 2 double lynches, and we're about to lose in a matter of days. It's not quite LYLO but it's getting damn close and I'd rather not get to that point. LSB has done way more than you have and I'm not about to dismiss his analysis just because you say I should. And we lost both Alakazam AND Mew. How the fuck are we going to know "for sure" who's scum and who's not? Oh wait, there is a way. Lynch them. The thing to take away from this post is his outspoken attitude. You can notice the same kinda posting style in the one above from mafia xxxv. He has a semi aggressive style. For instance, notice that he swears off and on and he's definitely showing he's pissed off. I haven't found any post he's made this game that has the same kinda attitude. (Note: I'm not saying that swearing implies mafia or that swearing means anything. What's important is there is a clear attitude change from his past games and this game. He does not have an outspoken stance this game compared to his last games.)
Further example. This post is from Pokemafia after mafia killed 3 blues during the night:
On December 16 2010 10:49 seRapH wrote: ...
Shit. God. Damn.
We can die. The following post is from this game:
On February 26 2011 18:16 seRapH wrote: Ouch, two bluesnipes. Also it's State Patty's day weekend here in PSU so idk when I'll be on.
Hopefully I'll be sober enough to drop in and read stuff. Only the first 3 words are important for this argument. Before when a bunch of blues died he was flipping out, this game he just says "ouch". Definitely a lack of empathy towards the town in this game, while in his previous games he was concerned when blues starting toppling.
Conclusion: Seraph's posting rates shows he's either mafia or a bored townie. When we look at his past games, we see a somewhat aggressive posting style (not afraid to speak his mind) and concern for the well-being of the town. This game there is a clear lack of that as his posts just indicate that he's here watching.
I've already voted for him. So should you!
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
It's rather good actually, it forces him to post something relevant. If it was just me he could easily ignore the subject and talk about other things.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
That first PM convo was from the first day, when he was actually here and trying to post. According to my sources, he's been very inactive in PM land recently.
I think we as teamliquid mafia players should all make a thread called "Lynching for information is stupid" in which we all post in it and say "lynching for information is stupid" and post examples from games that show "lynching for information is stupid".
I hope I got my point across there -_-
Look guys, with the votes so spread out right now, a townie is sure to die. Some clever last minute mafia posting can easily lead to one or two people switching their votes onto a townspeople. At the very least we should pile onto two players would we think are the most suspicious (Seraph and Jbright in my opinion).
LSB has clearly shown that he is active enough to respond to posts against him. Thus he will definitely be 100% active tomorrow to answer posts against him. What about Seraph and JBright? Are they going to be active tomorrow to respond to our posts? Who knows.
We need to deal with our inactive scum suspects now. Yes, now. Not tomorrow or later. I don't care how much you think LSB is mafia, lynching him now is not in the best town's interest (I say this even though I am suspicious of him as well). How many mafia games have been played where town lynched all the active players who were "suspicious" and then lost because they couldn't figure out the inactive mafia players? Quite a lot, it happens almost every game the mafia win.
I am not convinced LSB is mafia. Others have the same attitude I do. You want to convince me? Spend the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow posting stuff against him. I guarantee you he's going to be here to respond (if he's not, that just makes it all the easier to convince the rest of us). Tomorrow I highly doubt we are going to have any new information on JBright or Seraph. Which is why we need to lynch one of them now and not later.
If LSB is mafia, he'll slip up the more and more you guys pressure him (yeah you probably think he's slipped up 50 times already, but I'm not convinced). JBright and Seraph aren't going to slip up because they aren't going to ever post except to vote last minute.
Do what's best for the town.
btw did you guys know there is a player in this game by the name of "LastArgument"? Did you guys know that he's probably mafia? Just a friendly reminder.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
To Barundar:
My first impression of LSB through day one was that he is town. However I am not sure anymore. I directly said in my last post "I am suspicious of him", I'm not defending him or his actions. It's a matter of doing what's in the best interest of the town, and that would be killing JBright or Seraph. I don't think anyone in this game has said that they think both of these two are town, or are not okay killing one or the other. Ser Aspi brings up some excellent points but I think the case against Seraph is strong (obviously I'm biased though). Decide for yourself who you think is more convincing.
But by all means please keep pressuring LSB, just make sure you don't go overboard with it.
To Gmarshal: Mafia XXXV LSB the veteran was lynched day one mostly for information. He was mildly suspicious, annul pushed him hard and people decided to go along with it to see if it would say anything about annul or the others that pushed him in the beginning. It was only the first day but it was a huge loss to the town (even if they did kill annul the next day). Definitely some of the older players here can provide other examples as well.
Lynching for information is a terrible idea 95% of the time (I suppose we could conjure up some rare examples where it'd be useful). It's bad because it's not in the best interest for the town. As I said in my previous post two of the major things the town should be doing right now is:
1) Not spreading out the votes. 2) Killing a suspicious inactive.
The first one is obvious because at this point in the game a last minute vote switch can screw over the town hard (even if it's obvious who did it). For example in Incognito's double mafia game, the mafia family I was the head of all piled on one player in the last 5 minutes of voting. Even though it was obvious that we were all mafia, we did it because it guaranteed us a victory a day later. (Note this is not what actually happened because 2 people in my family went mia and got modkilled, but if it had worked we had a for sure win. In the end it was a tie game between my family and the town).
The second point is situational for this game because all our good leads are on relatively inactive players (Seraph, JBright, and yesterday LD). The only other lead we got is the obvious LSB (and maybe Barundar if you want to go that route). Since we're at almost half the amount of people we started with, we need to start pressuring inactives and killing them (assuming we have good evidence, which we do) while saving the more active people for later. Otherwise the inactive mafia will run away with a victory because by the time all the actives are dead nobody will know who to kill. This sort of happened in Mafia XXXV.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
To bumatlarge:
I think they are both good targets. And I did pick one, look at who I voted for and posted an analysis of yesterday. I said in a previous post I stopped the case on LD because I thought he made some good pro-town posts. He's not off the hook, but there are other better people to lynch right now (I'd lynch LSB right now over LD).
I was reminding people about LastArgument, not saying we should vote for him. If you skim through his posts, you'll notice he doesn't really seem to care about the town very much. That's pretty suspicious if you ask me. I'm saying keep him in mind for the later days. In my second mafia game, RoL was mafia and I didn't even know because I completely forgot he was in the game because he made ~3 posts over the course of 5 days. When I died in that game, Ver said "RebirthOfLegend is mafia" and I said "...who's that? He isn't in this game...?" Don't forget about him.
I'm glad you think LSB is mafia, and I will delightfully listen to your arguments all day and night. It's about doing what's in the best interest for the town, even if that means not killing your top suspect.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
And I'll be gone until day's end unfortunately, gotta work late.
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