Yeah that's right
TL Mafia XXXVII
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Foolishness
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Yeah that's right | ||
Foolishness
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MAFIA! Lynch him! | ||
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And yes I have debated the fact that me posting this is going to make you spam more, because your ego on the internet refuses to let someone else dictate what you shouldn't be doing, but honestly it's annoying and childish...there's a whole forum called "general" where to whole object is to spam away nonsense while pretending to mimic a thoughtful conversation. I have mulled over the thought of not playing because I feel that this is a prelude of what to expect in game, and I would like to be the optimist and think that we are all above that level Let's save the posting for when the game starts shall we? Not to mention when the game starts, if your posting frequency does not accurately reflect what happened pregame, you can bet your ass I'm going to be posting loads of analysis on why we should lynch you (yes, I'm even making empty threats now). | ||
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If you do not understand the above paragraph, I'd advise just taking my word for it, and rest assured you will figure it out eventually. | ||
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Gofarman's post. | ||
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If anyone's confused go read Mafia XXXV | ||
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Got to make him squirm a little more. Not to mention icemac is obviously town....at the very least you guys could vote Jackal so we get better confirmation on him, but I sure as heck ain't voting on a new player who clearly has no fear of posting in the thread. | ||
Foolishness
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On February 25 2011 05:49 deconduo wrote: So what gives you the right to pop in out of nowhere and drop a vote on the bandwagon? I'm unsure what to think of him at this point. After rereading the thread, something seems a little out of place with Gmarshal, annul, Gryffindor, and LSB don't you think? I want to pressure him more to see how he reacts, because currently his defense isn't convincing me he's town. And as I said, icemac is a good example of a new town player who people kill because he makes a noob mistake or something. I sure am not voting for him. | ||
Foolishness
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##unvote annul ##vote seraph | ||
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Kill seraph while I'm gone | ||
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And yes, it is vital to the game that you all know this information. | ||
Foolishness
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At one point or another I caught both these players saying "lynch the other, then lynch me if they turn up green". DO NOT BE DISTRACTED BY ARGUMENTS SUCH AS THESE! Let's say we take their advice, and lynch one today. They flip green (which is most likely). What's going to happen is we spend the entire next day debating to lynch the other and some other random inactive (probably icemac, the poor guy). Most likely, the other of LSB/Barundar will get lynched. End result of all this is probably we lynched two greens AND we wasted two days and nights analyzing at most 3 people. That time could have been spent taking a more thorough analysis of other players in the game. Not to mention by the time the next day roles around there will be about 4-5 more townies dead from night kills. "But Foolishness, what if (insert LSB or Barundar) is actually mafia! Then we killed a mafia!" Cool, that's really wonderful, but we still wasted two days not analyzing anyone else. Not to mention the ONLY people that want to kill LSB or Barundar are: LSB and Barundar. A quick scan tells me anyone else voting for one or the other is doing it out of policy "Wow (insert LSB or Barundar), I never looked at it that way before! It's so obvious that (insert whoever you didn't insert above) is mafia!" Yeah great job thinking for yourself there; policy lynches are totally the way to play mafia. Let's take a step back and analyze the situation as a whole. LSB and Barundar call each other, both are confident enough to say "if he flips green lynch me next". Nothing much to say here. What's interesting is we have people on both sides of the argument saying "LSB/Barundar is totally acting in their norm...remember this other game where they did exactly that as a town?" That strikes me as very interesting because it means someone actually did their homework and more obviously, they are probably both town. The voting thread is even more proof that nobody really wants to kill them besides themselves, as we got people voting for gryffindor and icemac. This also seems more out of policy than actual analysis, as people are basically summing up their vote as "well, I'm not comfortable with killing LSB or Barundar, so I'll just vote this other guy who has been under suspicion all game". Also voting out of policy without providing credible evidence. (Yes people, policy lynches are bad) If LSB and Barundar are not acting out of their norm then who is? LunarDestiny and Seraph. I can easily show it just by looking at their number of posts. LunarDestiny: Number of posts before game starts: 12 Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 18 Seraph: Number of posts before game starts: 10 Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 13 For this, I will focus on LunarDestiny, we can deal with Seraph later. ##Vote LunarDestiny In Mafia XXXV LunarDestiny had 29 posts from start of the game until the end of day two. That's a 50% increase from this game. Sure numbers are kinda meaningless, but it's interesting how much posting he was doing pre game then as soon as the game starts he shuts up. There's definitely something going on with him. Additional information, as it was brought up not too long ago, at one point yesterday the vote was Annul 6, icemac 5. It was here that I decided I wanted to vote for annul to pressure him more, because I thought he would easily crack and show himself as mafia (turns out he did right before day was over). It's usually my policy to lynch inactives first day, so I felt a bit awkward about voting for him because I hate voting active players the first day or two. I sent a PM to LunarDestiny, explaining this and asking if he would vote annul. His response (I don't want to take up space posting the actual PMs, just PM me if you don't believe me): "I spent more of my posts talking about how I hate bandwagon... However, I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV where his postings are similar since they are not logical." That's a legitimate response upon first inspection. But here's a collection of posts LunarDestiny made that regards bandwagoning: On February 23 2011 15:38 LunarDestiny wrote: Voting inactives are bad, but there are people who will only reply if their names pop up. I understand the game just started, but I think pressure voting to get someone start talking is good. What's bad is that if the person don't respond and bandwagon on that person happens. On February 23 2011 16:52 LunarDestiny wrote: @gryffindor You are saying that Ser Aspi read you as mafia and tried to convince town and not sucessful in doing do. While I agree that mafia won't recklessly risk themselves at leading lynches, I believe that they want to form a quick bandwagon on town. But you also said Ser Aspi tried to create a bandwagon which is what mafia wants to do. That should be a scum tell instead of a defense why he is town. If I missed one let me know, but it's clear there's very little indication of "I hate bandwagons!" Of course there's a little indication of this as he says it's a mafia move to ignite a bandwagon, but that's it. Of course what I'm getting at is that LunarDestiny wanted to dodge voting annul. If he didn't want to help me why not just say "i don't believe annul is mafia, let's kill icemac"? Maybe he's intimidated by me, or maybe he's mafia. (He did vote for icemac yesterday, which is kinda a bandwagon in itself, just not as big as the annul one). He tells me in the PM he will help me by calling him out in the thread. Let's look at some of his posts which are supposed to help me: On February 24 2011 14:05 LunarDestiny wrote: I want to ask you for the reasons why you switched your vote. And why do you think Gmarshall is a better lynch than Chaoser. This was his post after he sent me the PM. As we can see, he did try to pressure annul, but not in the way he said he would. Take a look at some of his later posts: On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote: I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum. I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad. Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions." I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1. XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much. Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory. Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game. This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive. On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote: Looked over Annul's posts: 1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing. 2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior. To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch. Easily seen how he contradicts what he told me in PM. He wanted to "help" me so that I wouldn't become suspicious of him, yet he spends time half ass defending annul. I say half ass because of his reluctance to take an affirmative stance on the situation. He obviously voted for icemac, and made posts such as these: On February 25 2011 08:09 LunarDestiny wrote: ANNUL, can you response to some critical posts toward you and don't use one liner responses because one liner responses are hard to read alignment. On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote: Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for. Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play. Can you at least tell us what you observed? Well, time to vote... Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread? These posts indicate him saying "hey annul you're going to die unless you do something" and above his posts are saying "guys, we don't have convincing evidence to kill annul, he's not acting that different from his past games". The most important thing to take away from this situation is his lack to take an affirmative stance. On one hand you read this and think, "nah he couldn't be mafia with annul look at him try to tell annul to change his attitude so he doesn't die", and on the other hand you read his above posts and say "he could be mafia with annul because he tried to defend him". LunarDestiny does not want to take sides so he cannot be held accountable later. SUMMARY: LunarDestiny gave me an inaccurate PM, and then went back on his word on pressuring annul. He did not take an affirmative stance on what he thought about annul and voted for icemac. | ||
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On February 28 2011 08:56 CubEdIn wrote: Ok so tally is up, it's pretty clear that icemac will die. I guess that I'll vote for him as well, as I want to sleep, though the only thing that I can base it on is the fact that annul had the chance to try and shift his lynch on him and chose not to do so. But it's all too wishy-washy if you ask me. ##vote icemac This is the exact attitude that results in town lynching greens. | ||
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On February 28 2011 09:40 GMarshal wrote: Ok, so reading over Foolishness post and looking back at XXXVI only on thing stands out in my mind, and thats the fact that when LD was the SK he played aggressively pro town, I would have guessed that he would play the same style as mafia, however I could be wrong, and there is certainly something off about LD this game. I already said earlier that just by looking at icemac's posts I wasn't really feeling that icemac was scum, so I'll change my vote (again), I dont think enough people are going to switch over to actually get a lynch on LD today, but its worth a try, worst case scenario we lynch a town and end up with a lurker being forced to be more active ##unvote: icemac ##Vote: LunarDestiny When I remember reading past games, LunarDestiny always seemed to have a presence. You always had him in mind because he was always there contributing (or in one case, killing people). At one point I forgot that he was even in this game, which is a far deviation from his norm. I feel like he's purposely trying to be under the radar this game, while in past games he didn't seem to care. As mentioned, he was aggressive as an SK, but I've always thought people will act more like a town as an SK than a mafia. | ||
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"Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions."" You directly told me (in PM): "I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV" Did I misunderstand something? | ||
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On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote: Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for. Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play. Can you at least tell us what you observed? Well, time to vote... Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread? You seem so reluctant to vote, almost like you don't really want to. If you didn't think annul was mafia, you should have defended harder, or provide reason why we should lynch icemac over him. It's understandable that you would vote for icemac (better him than annul if you think annul is innocent). It's not understandable for you to just vote without giving clear reason. Unless you changed your mind half way through day (it's okay if you did) you thought annul was innocent the whole time correct? If so why not find a better target to lynch? Right now I think all of LSB/Barundar/icemac are innocent, that's why I made a case against you, however hopeless it may be. It seemed like you didn't want to kill any of annul/icemac (which is okay). But tossing your vote on icemac like you did tells me that you really didn't care if icemac died, and that you really didn't care to try to find someone else to vote for. That's not the kind of player I want in my town. | ||
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On February 28 2011 10:07 LunarDestiny wrote: Wow, that is 100% what I actually said... Yes, I only called annul out. What I tried to do is to ask annul for reason why he switch his lynch and see if his reason is logical. Give me a break dammit, I reply your post after 6 minutes you sent me the pm. I didn't put much thought in my reply. Fault me for not doing what I promised. Your post is a defense of annul, you didn't call him out. People had already mentioned he was playing like he did in XXXV, you defended annul by saying "there's a difference between annul this game and last game. Last game he was using flawed reasons, this game he justified his vote". | ||
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On February 28 2011 07:18 LunarDestiny wrote: Barunder wants to lynch LSB and even is willing to go with sacrificing himself first to prove he is not scum. LSB says Barunder's analysis on him read too much on few posts and contain many WIFOMs. --- First if Barunder is scum and wants town LSB dead, he won't be satisfy being lynched first. His posts after he 3 essay sized posts did not follow up with the aggressive natural of the essay sized posts. If he is mafia, he needs to get LSB lynched before he is lynched. Because he is willing to be lynched first, that just defeats the original point of his essay sized posts if he is mafia. LSB did attacked back Barunder. This is pretty standard play and is very like LSB's play. Look back at XXXV when annul accused LSB as scum with shit posts that didn't make much sense, LSB fought back like how he is now. He justified it as putting some pressure back at his accuser and see if he will slip. Barunder did not and again is willing to be lynched first. To summarize, I don't think Barunder is scum. LSB is playing his standard in terms of his responds (not saying his alignment is town). One additional thing to point out is that they really believe the other is scum. You seem to say Barundar and LSB are not scum (which is the same conclusion I drew) yet you provided zero help to the town about it. All you did in this post was summarize what had happened previously, without giving new insight to the town. It seems to me that you are clearly around a lot (you don't seem to be inactive) yet I don't see you doing much for the town here. On February 28 2011 10:37 seRapH wrote: ##Vote: icemac In case it takes a while to read, was kinda gone the whole weekend kinda Very convenient for you to come in and vote for icemac (although you just got back so I'll cut you a bit of slack). | ||
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On February 28 2011 11:39 seRapH wrote: Ok, all caught up. LSB vs Barundar- LSB is the one who really pushed the annul lynch. That alone makes me doubt that he's mafia, regardless of how scummy the rest of his play so far might seem. Barundar, on the other hand, doesn't have the cleanest record right now. I'd be ok with lynching Barundar, since LSB has already caught one. icemac- Getting scummier, really starting to suspect him now. It doesn't help that his lynch is meeting with a lot of resistance. Especially this late in the day. Feels like someone's deliberately diverting the lynch off of him, doesn't it? Personally, I say we go for it. When there's post that triggers a swing in votes this late in the game it feels super suspicious. Also, it's the end of the day. The entire day cycle was spent with great bickering and squabbles between two parties. Everything was dandy, with two camps clearly lined up. No matter who we lynched, we'd have much more information to look at. But now people are jumping off and actively diverting the lynch. At the end of the day. For no reason other than because foolishness said so. I hate that. I respect foolishness and all as a player, but that does not mean that we should just blindly do what he tells us. This isn't a battle between a few "priority 1" players, this is isn't even a battle between "priority 1+2" players, this is a game where YOU decide who YOU think is mafia. Is anyone actually voting for people they think are really mafia? Because at this rate, we're going to lose all the progress we made today. And that's bullshit. I'm voting for who I think is mafia, blame the followers. I learned a key thing from reading the thread before my accusation: nobody really wants to kill LSB, Barundar, or icemac. Want proof? I make an analysis on LD and everyone jumps ship. My analysis is not complete, but there are important points worth addressing. I think most people here will agree that LD is a better lynch than any of the above 3. That's what I sent out to fix. I didn't want to see the town killing a player out of policy or killing a player they were only half sure about. I thought I had more evidence against LD so I went with him instead of Seraph. Even if he's not mafia at least we got rid of a mostly inactive player who's usually active. Step in the positive direction. I'm also fine killing Jbright, right now I'm going to leave on LD so there's no last minute swing possible (hopefully, haven't checked the votes). | ||
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On February 28 2011 12:04 Kenpachi wrote: Yea? well i think theres substantial evidence pointing at icemac.. Annul was well capable of changing the wagon on icemac but he didnt. he went for gryff. If icemac was town, he would have agressively changed the tides of the day 1 vote but he didnt. he accepted his death. ;l Just because annul went for gryff doesn't mean the mafia was going for gryff. It makes more sense the mafia tried to get icemac lynched, as opposed to blindly agreeing with annul. But you are right, annul accepted his death. That's pretty important because it means the mafia have very little presence in the thread. Looking back at it, they almost gave up on annul before they knew he was going to die. | ||
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On February 28 2011 12:11 Coagulation wrote: foolishness your case against LD was pretty week. hes normally an active poster and not acting like that in this game but that is a big can of wifom. So if somebody acts different during a game it's okay? I recall you saying you didn't want to kill icemac (correct me if I'm wrong) yet YOU are half the reason he died (the other half being GMarshal). I don't care if you don't believe me on LD, that's fine cause my analysis was half done. I had to rush to post it because day was going to end and I wanted to try to save the town from killing someone they clearly were hesitant about killing. But there was very little reason to change to JBright last minute because 1) there was only ~30 min left in day, you can't expect to get 6-8 votes in that time, 2) JBright would have been top candidate for tomorrow's lynch, and 3) obviously, we ended up killing someone we didn't want to in the first place. Sweet, what did we learn yesterday? Next to nothing. Now we are pretty much back at square one because LD and I are going to spend at least the next 24 hours arguing, which is going to make the town want to kill both of us. Furthermore, he's probably not going to die because everyone will start doubting me and reverting to someone else. People are probably going to forget about JBright because you are sitting there calling my analysis wifom (what does wifom mean again?) so I'm going to have to sit and spend hours explaining why we should be killing LD or JBright because we clearly have nothing better to do. (And we clearly have nothing better to do because we lynch someone we didn't even want to yesterday). Or I'm going to just shut up and get someone else to post against JBright because after what happened I don't expect anyone to believe me on LD. At least if we had killed LD we would have either gotten a mafia, or had good leads for tomorrow (JBright, icemac, myself). I'll be active in PMs as usual if anyone cares about my opinion. I suppose I'll make a case against Seraph tomorrow just in case he's still alive in ~4 days. On February 28 2011 12:12 LunarDestiny wrote: Why didn't you followed up if you really believed I am scum? I responded to all(?) of your post. Maybe later. I got better things to do now. | ||
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Points still stand though. You can't have a bandwagon in 30 minutes. Even me trying to bandwagon in 5 hours is a huge stretch. | ||
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##Vote Seraph | ||
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1) The initial reasons for me coming out against LD were because I looked at the day's lynch candidates (icemac, LSB, Barundar) and thought they were all terrible. Keep in mind this was with ~6 hours left in the day, so I had to rush to try to make a case for someone else. I still stand by with what I said in that LD was 100% a better lynch than any of the above 3 yesterday. 2) I'm not sure what to make of LD's responses. Some of the things he has said seemed to point to him to be town, others make him look suspicious. As long as he starts/continues to be active I'm not sure I want to call him scum. We keep him on a short leash and see what happens. 3) JBright and Seraph are both better lynch candidates today. There is already a well known case against JBright. In just a short while expect me to post one against Seraph. 4) We pressured LD because he was acting strange and he responded. We should be doing the same to others right now (Seraph, Kevconsim, Ohn). I'm still not sold on the whole PM thing that happened between us. From my perspective, he said he would call out a proven mafia and failed to do so. From his perspective, he misunderstood what I said or forgot or something. Unless everyone else sees it from my perspective over his I'm just going to ignore this for now. | ||
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As already mentioned, he has a very low post count. However we must take into effect that he said he would be mia for a portion of the game, which he apparently was. What's more interesting his that he posted a bunch pre game then his activity died off as the game went on. It looks like he made more posts day 1 than he did day 2, and more day 2 than he has today. What could cause the declining post count as the game goes on? Keep in mind he was really active pre game. Either he's mafia or a bored townie (of course there's a little leeway because he said he would be gone for a day or two). Bored townie is reasonable: he was active pre game and at the beginning, but then got bored because he didn't have a role or because there was nothing cool happening in the thread. Mafia is reasonable: he tried to be active in the beginning, but as we all know mafia never want to post if they don't have to. Given this information, I do not believe it very reasonable that he is a bored townie. This is one the very few games where we got a mafia lynched day 1; that's hella exciting in itself. The amount of spam in this game is considerably less overall than most games (especially yesterday and today), and we've only had 2 real modkills. I looked through his posts in Pokemafia and mafia xxxv and found a striking difference (both these games he was town). His overall post count is not that high (compared to spammers like Coagulation and Gryffindor) but he has a lots of one or two liners. Even when he was lynched in mafia xxxv he made one liners right up to his death. This game his posts are moderately big walls of text, with a few one liners. Here's one of his few big posts from mafia xxxv On December 31 2010 07:33 seRapH wrote: Soulfire Few points here: He’s new, he doesn’t want to out himself, and hands lurkers the excuse of not caring. First point isn’t incriminating, but the other two are pretty notable. Ok, fine, Pandain wagon was bullshit, I have no clue why anyone joined it at all, town or not. What I do find interesting is that apparantly Pandain is "pretty damn helpful" while LSB, evidently, has not been. I don’t really get this. I’m thinking that if we can get Soulfire lynched or nightkilled then annul can be cleared of most suspicions. Once again he pushes lynching lurkers too. Also, people don’t switch roles midway (or at least not in this setup), so a change in character indicates they’re either dodging an accusation or real life problems. Completely dodges the LSB/Annul situation by going for a new bandwagon on brocket. Also staying under the radar by following pandain quite closely: Conclusion: Very likely scum. Not too many posts at all, and none of them offering any original insight. imo this is a better lynch than anyone else so far, but Mr Wiggles earns second place. If Soulfire dodges the lynch then I’d at least like someone to DT check him. Here we have him doing some analysis, which is great. It's not detailed or ideal but it's at least an honest effort. Compare it to his analysis this game: On February 24 2011 17:07 seRapH wrote: icemac that was possibly the easiest way to dodge taking sides. The dude's probably going to get replaced or modkilled anyways. Seriously, take a stance on someone. Most of my game since my 6666th post has been going on through PMs, but I guess that was selfish of me >_> ##Vote Icemac Things to take sides on: GM vs Gryff- Cell System Annul vs LSB- XXXV Personally I doubt either of annul or LSB are scum, this is just a grudgematch. Coag and Kenpachi are playing more pro-town than usual (or maybe its just less spam?) People I'm suspicious of: Jackal- Playing a lot more passively than he did as town Icemac- Stop dodging the issues at hand Gofarman- Proponent of lynching inactives. Voting annul. A few more I'm not too sure of, will follow up on their posts tomorrow when I'm awake. Maybe. This post he hasn't said anything of value, other than giving and 8 word reason on people he's suspicious of (this was the best post I could find of us where he tried to give his thoughts on a situation that might be meaningful to the town). Here's a post from pokemafia: On December 18 2010 04:15 seRapH wrote: Holy shit this is so scummy. You sound like you don't think the town is in a tight spot here. We have 2 double lynches, and we're about to lose in a matter of days. It's not quite LYLO but it's getting damn close and I'd rather not get to that point. LSB has done way more than you have and I'm not about to dismiss his analysis just because you say I should. And we lost both Alakazam AND Mew. How the fuck are we going to know "for sure" who's scum and who's not? Oh wait, there is a way. Lynch them. The thing to take away from this post is his outspoken attitude. You can notice the same kinda posting style in the one above from mafia xxxv. He has a semi aggressive style. For instance, notice that he swears off and on and he's definitely showing he's pissed off. I haven't found any post he's made this game that has the same kinda attitude. (Note: I'm not saying that swearing implies mafia or that swearing means anything. What's important is there is a clear attitude change from his past games and this game. He does not have an outspoken stance this game compared to his last games.) Further example. This post is from Pokemafia after mafia killed 3 blues during the night: On December 16 2010 10:49 seRapH wrote: ... Shit. God. Damn. We can die. The following post is from this game: On February 26 2011 18:16 seRapH wrote: Ouch, two bluesnipes. Also it's State Patty's day weekend here in PSU so idk when I'll be on. Hopefully I'll be sober enough to drop in and read stuff. Only the first 3 words are important for this argument. Before when a bunch of blues died he was flipping out, this game he just says "ouch". Definitely a lack of empathy towards the town in this game, while in his previous games he was concerned when blues starting toppling. Conclusion: Seraph's posting rates shows he's either mafia or a bored townie. When we look at his past games, we see a somewhat aggressive posting style (not afraid to speak his mind) and concern for the well-being of the town. This game there is a clear lack of that as his posts just indicate that he's here watching. I've already voted for him. So should you! | ||
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I think we as teamliquid mafia players should all make a thread called "Lynching for information is stupid" in which we all post in it and say "lynching for information is stupid" and post examples from games that show "lynching for information is stupid". I hope I got my point across there -_- Look guys, with the votes so spread out right now, a townie is sure to die. Some clever last minute mafia posting can easily lead to one or two people switching their votes onto a townspeople. At the very least we should pile onto two players would we think are the most suspicious (Seraph and Jbright in my opinion). LSB has clearly shown that he is active enough to respond to posts against him. Thus he will definitely be 100% active tomorrow to answer posts against him. What about Seraph and JBright? Are they going to be active tomorrow to respond to our posts? Who knows. We need to deal with our inactive scum suspects now. Yes, now. Not tomorrow or later. I don't care how much you think LSB is mafia, lynching him now is not in the best town's interest (I say this even though I am suspicious of him as well). How many mafia games have been played where town lynched all the active players who were "suspicious" and then lost because they couldn't figure out the inactive mafia players? Quite a lot, it happens almost every game the mafia win. I am not convinced LSB is mafia. Others have the same attitude I do. You want to convince me? Spend the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow posting stuff against him. I guarantee you he's going to be here to respond (if he's not, that just makes it all the easier to convince the rest of us). Tomorrow I highly doubt we are going to have any new information on JBright or Seraph. Which is why we need to lynch one of them now and not later. If LSB is mafia, he'll slip up the more and more you guys pressure him (yeah you probably think he's slipped up 50 times already, but I'm not convinced). JBright and Seraph aren't going to slip up because they aren't going to ever post except to vote last minute. Do what's best for the town. btw did you guys know there is a player in this game by the name of "LastArgument"? Did you guys know that he's probably mafia? Just a friendly reminder. | ||
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My first impression of LSB through day one was that he is town. However I am not sure anymore. I directly said in my last post "I am suspicious of him", I'm not defending him or his actions. It's a matter of doing what's in the best interest of the town, and that would be killing JBright or Seraph. I don't think anyone in this game has said that they think both of these two are town, or are not okay killing one or the other. Ser Aspi brings up some excellent points but I think the case against Seraph is strong (obviously I'm biased though). Decide for yourself who you think is more convincing. But by all means please keep pressuring LSB, just make sure you don't go overboard with it. To Gmarshal: Mafia XXXV LSB the veteran was lynched day one mostly for information. He was mildly suspicious, annul pushed him hard and people decided to go along with it to see if it would say anything about annul or the others that pushed him in the beginning. It was only the first day but it was a huge loss to the town (even if they did kill annul the next day). Definitely some of the older players here can provide other examples as well. Lynching for information is a terrible idea 95% of the time (I suppose we could conjure up some rare examples where it'd be useful). It's bad because it's not in the best interest for the town. As I said in my previous post two of the major things the town should be doing right now is: 1) Not spreading out the votes. 2) Killing a suspicious inactive. The first one is obvious because at this point in the game a last minute vote switch can screw over the town hard (even if it's obvious who did it). For example in Incognito's double mafia game, the mafia family I was the head of all piled on one player in the last 5 minutes of voting. Even though it was obvious that we were all mafia, we did it because it guaranteed us a victory a day later. (Note this is not what actually happened because 2 people in my family went mia and got modkilled, but if it had worked we had a for sure win. In the end it was a tie game between my family and the town). The second point is situational for this game because all our good leads are on relatively inactive players (Seraph, JBright, and yesterday LD). The only other lead we got is the obvious LSB (and maybe Barundar if you want to go that route). Since we're at almost half the amount of people we started with, we need to start pressuring inactives and killing them (assuming we have good evidence, which we do) while saving the more active people for later. Otherwise the inactive mafia will run away with a victory because by the time all the actives are dead nobody will know who to kill. This sort of happened in Mafia XXXV. | ||
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I think they are both good targets. And I did pick one, look at who I voted for and posted an analysis of yesterday. I said in a previous post I stopped the case on LD because I thought he made some good pro-town posts. He's not off the hook, but there are other better people to lynch right now (I'd lynch LSB right now over LD). I was reminding people about LastArgument, not saying we should vote for him. If you skim through his posts, you'll notice he doesn't really seem to care about the town very much. That's pretty suspicious if you ask me. I'm saying keep him in mind for the later days. In my second mafia game, RoL was mafia and I didn't even know because I completely forgot he was in the game because he made ~3 posts over the course of 5 days. When I died in that game, Ver said "RebirthOfLegend is mafia" and I said "...who's that? He isn't in this game...?" Don't forget about him. I'm glad you think LSB is mafia, and I will delightfully listen to your arguments all day and night. It's about doing what's in the best interest for the town, even if that means not killing your top suspect. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On February 25 2011 11:28 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Annul - 10 Gofarman deconduo LSB astroorion chaoser darmousseh CubEdIn Mr. Wiggles kevconsim Gryffindor Jbright - 1 JBright Icemac - 5 why OriginalName ICanFlyLow Beneather LunarDestiny Gryffindor - 4 Coagulation Jackal58 ohN annul ICanFlyLow - 3 seRapH LastArgument GMarshal Jackal58 - 1 Barundar Kenpachi - 1 Kenpachi Mr.wiggles - 2 Ser Aspi icemac Seraph - 1 Foolishness Darmoussah - 1 kitaman27 ___ FINAL TALLY, Annul to be lynched On February 28 2011 12:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: LSB - 4 Barundar bumatlarge deconduo LastArgument Icemac - 10 gryffindor JBright chaoser LSB kevconsim Beneather CubEdIn Kenpachi seRapH icemac Jbright - 3 Coagulation GMarshal Jackal58 LunarDestiny - 6 Foolishness ohN OriginalName why Ser Aspi LunarDestiny ____________ Final vote tally, Icemac to be lynched. Full lists in here + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2011 11:28 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Gmarshal - 0 Annul - 10 Gofarman deconduo LSB astroorion chaoser darmousseh CubEdIn Mr. Wiggles kevconsim Gryffindor Chaoser - 0 Jbright - 1 JBright Why - 0 Icemac - 5 why OriginalName ICanFlyLow Beneather LunarDestiny Gryffindor - 4 Coagulation Jackal58 ohN annul ICanFlyLow - 3 seRapH LastArgument GMarshal Jackal58 - 1 Barundar Kenpachi - 1 Kenpachi Mr.wiggles - 2 Ser Aspi icemac Seraph - 1 Foolishness Darmoussah - 1 kitaman27 ___ FINAL TALLY, Annul to be lynched On February 28 2011 12:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Cubedin - 0 Gryffindor - 1 Jackal58 - 0 Barundar - 0 Bumatlarge - 0 MaxwellE - 0 astroorion - 0 LSB - 4 Barundar bumatlarge deconduo LastArgument Icemac - 10 gryffindor JBright chaoser LSB kevconsim Beneather CubEdIn Kenpachi seRapH icemac Jbright - 3 Coagulation GMarshal Jackal58 LunarDestiny - 6 Foolishness ohN OriginalName why Ser Aspi LunarDestiny ____________ Final vote tally, Icemac to be lynched. | ||
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At any rate, town should always play as if there are no blues alive, and assume the worse case scenario. If there are any blues still alive that's great, but our job is to find mafia, not blue roles. | ||
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Because this guy is mafia. First take a look at his voting; starting with day 1 he has voted for ICanFlyLow, LSB, JBright. While certainly not conclusive, he has failed to vote for both mafia this game (and possibly he hasn't voted for ANY mafia this game if LSB and JBright are town). This doesn't say much in itself because other members of the town have the same thing going for them (hi chaoser!). Let's look at his posts this game; so far he has made a total of 13. That's so few I could post them all in here and my post still won't be ridiculously long. 7 of those posts are one liners or a restatement of what he posted earlier, so in reality there's only 6 posts he can take credit for. Of these 6 posts, take a look at the first one he made that was more than 2 sentences: On February 23 2011 15:46 LastArgument wrote: As you asked what I found troublesome about this post. as per the town guide found http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179 You did what would be as general talking. Rather than being specific with the use of the roles you mention you instead mention generalities. It also a post that lacks emphasis on the fundamental skill in which it has been suggested towns need to play by which is behavioural analysis. This and factoring in your earlier claim makes it seem fairly odd no? Obviously he was trying to analyze one of gryffindor's posts. This guy knows something about mafia as he has read the town guide, and is able to make an objective analysis on something gryffindor wrote. His next post follows up after gryffindor responds: On February 23 2011 15:57 LastArgument wrote: In your following posts after the one I quoted you only center on GM for a possible red, who is following suggestions found in the link I provided. I also glanced through your posts and you so far have only insinuated that GM as well as mrwiggles. Your list of "reads" is responding to foolishness, but is also a summary of information found in multiple spots within the mafia forum. Most of it is all spoken generalities, rather than specifics. I know I am not very experienced and running purely on what I have read from threads here but based on that it all seems off. Deep reading between the lines shows a mafia player in disguise. He has emphasized his noobiness, "I am not very experienced", and has cast doubt upon gryffindor without taking a firm stance. When I read this post and the one above it, it seems like LastArgument has stumbled across something suspicious that gryffindor did, yet he fails to push it in the thread and just brush it off. You would have to try pretty hard to convince me this guy is a bored townie. He clearly cares about the game and is trying, but so far hasn't cnotributed to the town in any way. On February 25 2011 04:59 LastArgument wrote: I will be voting Icanflylow until a more suitable target can be brought up. As of now there is too much on either side of the fence to lynch one of gm/annul/chaoser/ice whereas icanflylow has posted once in the thread jumping on a bandwagon and not providing real input into the game. This vote may change depending on arguments brought forward, however 1 post to poorly justify ones vote on a bandwagon seems far to scum like to ignore at this moment. If he has been active in pm's someone let me know so that my view of him may be changed, but as of right now he seems the least contributing member of the game. ##vote icanflylow Cool, he casts doubt upon gryffindor and votes for some random inactive. Yes it's not conclusive but interesting. It's also a little hilarious because he votes on the basis that ICanFlyLow is the least contributing member when he himself is has not contributed anything except "Hey gryffindor this thing you did here might be suspicious according to the guide but I'm inexperienced so who knows, please don't notice me" 0 posts in the next 3 days for him (real time days, as in 72 hours). Then he comes out with a whopper! On February 28 2011 04:42 LastArgument wrote: I have spent some time trying to organize my thoughts and here is some of what I have thought on. First off two players stand out more than others to me. Icanflylow(now bumatlarge) and LSB. I know LSB has been analyzed by barundar. There is however one post that strikes me as particularly useless made by LSB that should be used as a reason for an obvious lynch. This post ranks players in three catagories. 1 being the “top players” 2 being ones who have experience or shown to have it 3 being people who have less experience than 2 4 being new players. However, if you start reading the post more carefully, you will realize it’s a post indicating how the mafia “should” hit people to avoid off the radar. Now, a mafia reading this post now knows how to properly divide hits to maximize the team from dying. It doesn’t directly say how we should be saving those people, or how to analyze them. (note: he makes a short post on “how to use this list” right after but essentially says its useless till day 4-5). This list didn’t provide people who should be dt checked, it didn’t provide a list of who should be medic protected. It instead provided a long post that doesn’t help the town as much as it helps mafia. Why make a post as town that shows activity but barely helps the town at all? This could be a lack of experience on my part, but it surprises me this post was made without further detailing or breaking down of how the town can use the information aside from “bide and wait till people die to pin the reds” Bumatlarge This is his second post in the game, he clears one player of suspicion, FoS two players, one of which is responsible for the most pro town idea this game. It isn’t much to go on, but based on all the pages the thread has, the only thing he was able to comment on was the annul lynch? And do generalization FoS on players without anything solid? Seems off to me. Best post he has written all game, but the attitude is weird. He points out a few good things in regards to the LSB list, saying that the list is in essence useless to the town and more useful to the mafia (which is easy for him to point out if he is mafia). But again he references his noobiness "This could be lack of experience on my part". The paragraph he writes about bumatlarge is also pretty bad. He says "but based on all the pages the thread has, the only thing he was able to comment on was the annul lynch?" Yet he himself as hardly contributed anything as well, as by this time he's only made 6 posts. Notice the non commital attitude in the bottom part of his post. He seems to think bumatlarge is suspicious (which he for sure was at this point in the game) and all he says is "Seems off to me" when he could have easily voted or said something like, "we need to pressure this chump now!". (Turns out he votes for LSB next post.) Look, Bumatlarge didn't even respond to this post because he didn't need to! That's what the mafia want to do, try to make it look like they are pressuring someone when they aren't. If he made this post against you, would you sit down and write a reply to it? I sure wouldn't because he's not threatening at all. You can safely ignore him and nobody will notice. Good job blending in! Even after this is only posts were one liners or a restatement of his argument against LSB. It is quite convenient that he comes in right before day ends and votes for JBright. On March 03 2011 08:57 LastArgument wrote: I'm heading out for a bit and just got home from work and should be back before voting. However, until then. ##vote Jbright Ridiculously convenient if you ask me; this seems like an attempt to save his mafia buddy Seraph. (This was his last post in the game up until the writing of this). You might say that this doesn't mean anything because JBright is probably mafia as well. However Seraph is probably more valuable to the mafia than JBright (assuming JBright is mafia), which makes sense because Seraph has more experience, and is more active than JBright. ------------------------------------- It seems to me that we shouldn't kill JBright, as he is probably a townie. This might seem like a radical thing for me to say at first, because if JBright was town why didn't he die last night? The vote was pretty close at days end, surely the mafia could have gotten him killed right? No. The fact that a mafia died day 1 shows that the mafia have very little pressence in the thread (I discussed this in a previous post). If the mafia couldn't save annul on day 1 they wouldn't have been able to yesterday when it was much harder than day 1. LastArgument has not done anything that benefits the town (besides pointing out LSB's list thing I guess). Furthermore, it is clear that he is not a bored townie. He read the town guide and was trying to use it early game. He clearly has had suspicions against people and is able to point out what was wrong with LSB's list. He is for sure playing the game, just not in the thread, he's playing it on the mafia forum. LastArgument | ||
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On March 04 2011 11:46 Jackal58 wrote: Thank you guys. I am not nearly as eloquent as you two are. I put them on my list at the start of night and promised more. Another one is GMarshall. I am pretty much incapable of providing analysis such as you guys did. My beliefs are entirely gut feelings. I've learned to trust them. It just takes a little bit of practice. Once you know the things to look for it's actually not as time consuming as you would think. | ||
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wait....I'm dead... >.> | ||
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Lazy host =P | ||
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On March 15 2011 12:21 LunarDestiny wrote: My "pm slip" with foolishness is really me not taking his pm seriously. My inactivity is just me being busy. Excuse. Excuse. Excuse. But really. If I have enough time to play, I could have been less scummy. QUESTION TO FOOLISHNESS: HOW THE FUCK YOU FIGURED OUT THAT THERE WAS A DISTORT IN KP ON NIGHT 2? DID YOU GET OUTSIDE HELP? Yeah I realized that it wasn't a slip, hence I decided to lay off you for the time being. After you started going inactive I was pretty sure again you were mafia...but by that time I was dead =P There were 3 kills night 1 and 4 kills night 2. There were not enough roleblock claims to effect this. There had to have been a distortion otherwise: 1) There was a town KP used night 2: obviously not true since nobody claimed to hit or anything (I didn't see any reason why the person wouldn't, or wouldn't at least claim to someone they trusted who would tell everyone in the thread). 2) Mafia used extra abilities night 1: this doesn't make much sense at all. Why use extra abilities day 1 when you have little or no information? The only reason they would is if they were sure they found blue roles or knew who DTs were checking. Given it was day 1 there is little to no reason to suspect mafia had some information that the town didn't (unless they were doing some pro-blue fishing behind the scenes). Also, Coagulation didn't flip day 1 as medic, so that ruled out him claiming to a mafia. Given that, something was wrong with the night kills. | ||
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