On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:Hi again peoples.
Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +I GOT TO SEE SNOW!
Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.
So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.
There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.
Barundar:I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.
So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.
So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.Here are a few examples:
Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...
Vote: LSB
Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!
Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.
Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable
Therefore
##Vote LSB
This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)
Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.
As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.
That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!