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On ilovejonn
He has 17 posts in the day cycle after the day starts. Almost all the first half are one-liners talking about rereading the OP or jokes. The first major post is this:
On May 05 2011 04:26 ilovejonn wrote: Just finished reading the thread. I read really slow as I'm often thinking about other stuff when I read.
First I'll give my opinion on the Irish13 discussion even though it has dropped. I like what redtooth did do get responses out of people but as he said himself, it became a null tell when almost everyone defended Irish. The post redtooth used to invoke responses from was a post that could have been misinterpreted by people and from seeing people defend Irish, it leads me to believe Irish isn't scum. I've only played 4-5 games on TL mafia, but I'd like to ask what does RSV/RQV stand for?
Secondly, my gut feelings tell me that redtooth and chaoser are not scum based on their posts. They are actually quality posts, and even if they are scum, at least what they are posting benefits town for now. It is better to heed the advices in their posts than to bash them for it (for now). I don't want another Kavdragon incident in here again where we lynch someone because they are "too pro-town". Pretty silly.
Last but not least, FOS Kurumi and Airblade. Kurumi for his posting behaviour. Why are you posting like that? Maybe English isn't your first language but what about the post with numbers? Are you trying to breadcrumb something? I'm just not understanding your posts. Airblade for saying "At least if we lynch him and he flips town, we won't have to attempt to read those type of posts anymore." That is extremely anti-town. Of course you would want to lynch someone who isn't scum, because then you'd waste a day AND lynched a townie, am I right?
This is mostly reposting what redtooth's gambit at the start of the game. The FoS on Airblade is understandable. FoS on Kurumi is reasonable at this early stage as he hasn't talked about his plans or posted any analysis yet.
On redtooth:
On May 05 2011 07:03 ilovejonn wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 06:36 orgolove wrote: So we're just letting people divert our attention from the actual scum posts. Redtooth has shown clear signs of scummy behavior, both in his lies, his attempts to turn this discussion into useless pages about "experience," his lies, his inane essay posts without any real substance, his lies, his lies, and his lies.
And we're just letting the suspicion go just like that? I think this is true. I don't know why he would ask questions such as what was your mafia experience. Sure it generates discussion but is any of that really relevant to scum hunting? Unless this is another one of his plans to draw out responses..
You agree we should definitely keep suspicion on redtooth but you then go and rubbish it straight away. No stance here at all.
This is the explanation of his vote for Kurumi.
On May 05 2011 08:30 ilovejonn wrote: Tbh, I would place my vote on Kurumi. Irish comes off to me as a player defending hard for himself. Kurumi's post make no sense to me. Questioned about he says he makes his posts weird just for the hell of it. That's no way to defend yourself if you're playing to win. His last post does become a bit more understandable but still makes no sense. Look at what he thinks of Kenpachi etc. I don't really understand your reason for voting for him. You decide against voting for Irish because he defend himself hard. I'm pretty sure Kurumi did that too. Kurumi has said repeatedly that he was trying to bring out scum, I think he's been quite successful. He made himself a bandwagon and you have jumped on. If he's playing to win, he wins if he can get some scum killed. He doesn't have to survive til the end. You are trying to cover up his plan.
In response to you being called out as quiet:
On May 05 2011 12:04 ilovejonn wrote: Told you guys I'm an invisible poster. I've made my stance before and have voted for Kurumi. I also explained why I don't think the other candidates are a better choice than Kurumi. Only reason people may think I'm inactive is because there are posts and pages flying through and my posts are probably not long enough. I would agree that some vets around are posting less than usual though. However I'm pretty lenient since it's only Day1. On that note though, I have work 11 - 9 est tmr and will only be posting after 10 pm.
You haven't explained anything about any of the other candidates. You disappear after bandwagoning him.
Lastly this just before the lynch:
On May 06 2011 11:59 ilovejonn wrote: I got off work at 9 pm est. Come home and had to read 10 pages. I already explained I read slow. And by the time of this post it is already 10:56 pm est. I have to eat dinner and stuff too. Please people if you don't have anything to contribute don't post something because I never skip any single post. I read them all, even the spam. Maybe I should learn to scan but them I'm afraid I'll miss something.
My vote stays on Kurumi, I'm not going to switch a vote at 10:58 pm est, especially when it doesn't do a damn thing.
Off the top of my head though, my suspicions are on the guy who made an excel spreadsheet. I'll post more later.
First of all, why not change your vote if you don't think he's scum? Last minute switches have happened before. Also, why is making a spreadsheet which specifically shows the links to everyone suspicious? You need more than that.
CONCLUSION
ilovejonn is very suspicious but I'm less certain than on VarpuliS. ilovejonn does have a history of being fairly quiet in past games.
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On sinani206
He has 14 posts in the thread after the game begins. I understand this is his first game.
His first real post was in response to redtooth's initial call on Irish_Punk13 and resulted in a warning for editing:
On May 04 2011 13:12 sinani206 wrote: How so? EDIT: You never know.
I don't know what it was pre-edit but the interesting thing to point out is the link, once again, to redtooth. Cthsazsa does the same thing.
On May 04 2011 23:19 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 21:47 Jackal58 wrote: I am one of the people IP13 and chaos13 know from another forum. The other one is Coagulation. Just putting it out there so you know he's not bullshitting anybody. Read the two posts above you. He did it to see who would jump on it, not to actually accuse Irish.
Defence of redtooth.
On May 05 2011 01:27 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 01:09 Kurumi wrote: Oh,also I am voting on Irish Punk. Funny how he and chaos have 13 in the end of their nicknames. So you vote for people because there's some type of coincidence? Don't make this like SC2 Mafia, please.
Quick to jump on the Kurumi train.
On May 05 2011 10:31 sinani206 wrote:OK, back from practice. + Show Spoiler [Redtooth] + He is probably the most confusing player right now. First he accuses Irish for no reason, but then takes it back, followed by a policy post. His excuse was that he was trying to see how quickly people defended Irish, but what if that was plan B? Redtooth hasn't posted in a while now, and this has kinda died down, but I just want to remind everyone about what happened earlier. Don't just throw things away as soon as he makes an excuse.
+ Show Spoiler [Chaoser] + Chaoser was very aggressive at first, of course starting with his accusation of Irish which was followed by additional aggressive posting. But then he calmed down a little. Is it because his Mafia buddies told him to, so as not to be targeted? That is the main question I have here.
+ Show Spoiler [Jackal58] + Aggressive, but in a neutral way. Nothing he has said swings me one way or the other. He plays very well. You get a star! lol.
+ Show Spoiler [Irish_Punk13] + May have overreacted to accusation, but that was probably just surprise... I don't blame him. He then blames AirbladeOrange, which isn't too suprising. More on him next.
+ Show Spoiler [AirbladeOrange] + Very suspicious with not much of a defense. Possible vote right here.
+ Show Spoiler [Cthsazsa] + Posting, but no real substance. Another possible vote.
+ Show Spoiler [Forumite] + Very analytical, no aggressiveness.
+ Show Spoiler [Others] + Nobody else really stands out enough or has enough posts for me to analyze their play. Just keep posting, people! [/spoiler
There isn't much here. You say you have more on Irish_Punk13 and never provide. The suspicion of AirbladeOrange and chaoser isn't elaborated on at all. Why does Jackal get a star exactly? For being aggressive? The analysis of redtooth is easily the most substantial, but you never follow up on it. The only person who has been a large voice so far who is missing is of course Kurumi which chaoser calls you out on in the next post.
On May 05 2011 10:51 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 10:46 chaoser wrote:On May 05 2011 10:31 sinani206 wrote:OK, back from practice. + Show Spoiler [Redtooth] +He is probably the most confusing player right now. First he accuses Irish for no reason, but then takes it back, followed by a policy post. His excuse was that he was trying to see how quickly people defended Irish, but what if that was plan B? Redtooth hasn't posted in a while now, and this has kinda died down, but I just want to remind everyone about what happened earlier. Don't just throw things away as soon as he makes an excuse. + Show Spoiler [Chaoser] + Chaoser was very aggressive at first, of course starting with his accusation of Irish which was followed by additional aggressive posting. But then he calmed down a little. Is it because his Mafia buddies told him to, so as not to be targeted? That is the main question I have here.
+ Show Spoiler [Jackal58] + Aggressive, but in a neutral way. Nothing he has said swings me one way or the other. He plays very well. You get a star! lol.
+ Show Spoiler [Irish_Punk13] + May have overreacted to accusation, but that was probably just surprise... I don't blame him. He then blames AirbladeOrange, which isn't too suprising. More on him next.
+ Show Spoiler [AirbladeOrange] + Very suspicious with not much of a defense. Possible vote right here.
+ Show Spoiler [Cthsazsa] + Posting, but no real substance. Another possible vote.
+ Show Spoiler [Forumite] + Very analytical, no aggressiveness.
+ Show Spoiler [Others] + Nobody else really stands out enough or has enough posts for me to analyze their play. Just keep posting, people!
So...nobody else stood out except those that you looked at but then you voted for someone that didn't stand out for you and not the one you have marked down as "Possible vote right here" (AO) On May 05 2011 10:39 sinani206 wrote: ##Vote: Kurumi Huh? I'm confused by your actions. Please explain. Oh sorry, did I not include Kurumi in my post? He was in the Word document. Here he is: [spoiler=Kurumi] Very analytical, but at the same time, very aggressive. He doesn't give up. This causes me to believe he is a member of the Mafia. I will be voting for him today,
Why on earth is this a good reason to vote for him? He's very analytical? That's a huge pro-town factor! Your boss redtooth has also been very aggressive but you don't talk of voting for him.
On May 05 2011 10:54 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 10:51 Forumite wrote: I´m voting Kurumi. His last post was 5 pages ago, and I´m open to retracting if he has a good defence once he gets online, or we find someone more scummy, but my vote is on him for now.
##Vote: Kurumi There's a voting thread.
Uh-oh, someone not voting for your bandwagon?
On May 05 2011 11:41 sinani206 wrote: Kurumi has just been generally unhelpful and detrimental to the town. Must I say more?
Yes, yes you must say more.
On May 06 2011 11:07 sinani206 wrote: Do you need a majority or a plurality to win the vote?
This question is very important to Mafia.
CONCLUSION
sinani206 is Mafia
UPDATED SUSPICIOUS PERSONS LIST
Redtooth MAFIA VarpuliS MAFIA sinani206 MAFIA Beneather MAFIA Cthsasza MAFIA
ilovejonn SUSPICIOUS Lyter SUSPICIOUS
The interaction between sinani, Varpuli and Redtooth is reminding me of the scum team I was part of last game. One vocal leader and the underlings doing his bidding. Redtooth is focusing on chaoser to help take down one of the vocal opposition.
UPDATED ??? LIST
I am removing Rising_Phoenix due to his post about getting caught behind and pissed off. He is new and the only game he has played was Newbie Mini Mafia 1 which was 15 pages total length. It will be interesting to see how kevconsim acts as his replacement.
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At Cthsazsa, my commentary of your post is in red.
On May 06 2011 13:57 Cthsazsa wrote:My take on the situation before I go to bed. Actually, I did do something about it. I looked up Beneather's post history in this thread. VarpuliS was wrong. Beneather posted 3 times since the game started. The three posts he made don't have much value to them, though. This is entirely true.Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 08:24 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:22 Forumite wrote: Of these three, I think we have the least to go on with AirbladeOrange, because he´s only got 4 posts so far. He looks more like a slow poster that made a few scumtells. Could you analyze these posts. So that we can see the scumtells you are telling us. We can't just bandwagon a guy just you say he has 4 posts and had a few scumtells. We need a little more than that. He asked Forumite to analyze the posts. Forumite did, but very poorly. After Forumite's analysis, Beneather never commented on it. In fact he never talked about it again. This dude's clearly lurking. As for my one liner, I apologize DropBear. My girlfriend was in the hospital, and I couldn't resist checking up on the thread while I was waiting. So I hastily gave my opinion of him, which was a mistake. I should've waited until now to give my analysis. Ok fair enough, I hope she's ok.DropBear, you also said I didn't do anything about it. Well, neither have you. And on your post against VarpuliS, you do a really good job pointing out his slipups. You've pretty much stated why he is one of my FoS. I certainly did do something about it. I voted for him. He's been in every scum list I have presented so far and I've heard nothing.Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 13:08 DropBear wrote: Cthsazsa is on my scum list as well as you. This is an attempt to help you appear town down the line when Cthsazsa flips.
That is exactly what VarpuliS said, you even quoted it. I find that to be a horrible reason to call someone scum. Not because I'm the target in it, but because you can use that argument on literally anyone. This is true, but I believe your other interactions with the people I find suspicious to be interesting. I have linked all of you together and if I am correct this is what he has done. I may be incorrect. Your extreme overreaction to being accused is mostly what leads me to suspect you and the suspicion is strengthened by aforementioned interactions.ForumiteWhy he is becoming a FoS in my books. + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 06:58 Forumite wrote:EBWOP Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 06:51 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote: I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round. Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either: - 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. - 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. What does 70/30 come from? + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 07:04 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 06:59 Kurumi wrote:Again I stayed up for Mafia a bit too long,but I just want to see how it goes,so I will be lurking from my PSP in bed. Just a thought: I flip red,Irish and redtooth are suspicious. 3 Scum giveaway on Day1? Really? I don't think it is possible. I flip blue and people can't understand how I managed to get myself lynched I flip green and Irish and redtooth are not as suspicious,but every person nitpicking and tunneling me is now suspicious,together with bandwagoners and lurkers emerging just to vote on me. + Show Spoiler +I will flip rainbow,maybe even double one If you are blue, now´s the time to roleclaim. Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 07:00 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 06:56 Forumite wrote: Where does 70/30 come from? This is the last time I'm helping you. Seriously, stop acting like a baby and do the reasoning yourself. You're quickly losing any credibility you have with your empty questioning. Chaoser stated that he was 70% sure Irish was scum. That is the "70" part of 70/30. The "30" part of 70/30 comes from when you subtract 70 from 100 and then you get 30. Why are you arguing that day-vigilante is a good move by using probabilities you yourself think are wrong? + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote: You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior. AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them. I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.
On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote: Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why? We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches. Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now? + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote: I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round. Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? Lets make comparisons between those posts by Forumite. Each of these posts are either asking a question or making a statement to continue the argument. They aren't worth any value, don't contribute, and all they do is draw out pointless/stupid arguments that don't benefit the town. Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 09:00 Forumite wrote: Moving my vote to Kurumi. If we have 20 votes on one person, at least we know it stays there, scum can´t flip the vote at the last second.
##Unvote: redtooth ##Vote: Kurumi In his last post before Kurumi's death, he hops on the bandwagon and switches his vote to Kurumi. My top 3 FoS right now are Beneather, Forumite, and VarspuliS
I hadn't looked at Forumite at all. This has actually been interesting. Again, someone who has been at odds with redtooth is getting FoS'd. I disagree when you say his questions are pointless. His questions here have been almost exclusively calling out redtooth. The only thing that interests me from what you've shown is the last-minute switch from redtooth to Kurumi. I will look more closely at him but your analysis makes me feel the opposite way.
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This will be my last post for a little while. I have a large number of commitments in the next 48 hours so I will be fairly quiet but will try and keep updated.
On May 06 2011 13:58 AirbladeOrange wrote: I remember ilovejonn being mostly a lurker in the last mafia game providing no real analysis. Why is he suspicious this game when he was acting the same way last game and was town?
He is acting similar but he's still suspicious . I agree that he is acting similarly to last time to a degree and that's why he's on my suss list not my mafia list. See the bottom of my post regarding him. The most obvious difference between this game and last is that he voted for the townie to die in this game and voted for Protactinium last game who was tearing the scum team apart.
On May 06 2011 14:13 kitaman27 wrote:@DropBear, nice to see some analysis. In the future, you might wanna consider posting them before the day post so you don't influence night hits, but I guess this provides a chance for further discussion at least. Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 14:05 KillerSOS wrote: Well can't say that result was unexpected... we all pretty much agreed that he was just a noobtown.
Oh well. If you felt so strongly, how come you spent so little effort defending him or pushing your preferred target?
I post when I can. I didn't get the time to write them up until now and I want to get them out while everything is fresh in the game. The Kurumi flip is evidence so it makes sense to post now. I'm not sure what you mean about posting before the day post? I have posted before the day post.
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Redtooth this first "reorganisation" post is COMPLETELY at odds with your original longpost. Let's recap it.
1: Don't lurk. 2: Don't spam. 3: Never give up.
On May 04 2011 16:27 redtooth wrote: Rule 3: Never Give Up This is directed at townies. If you're scum, by all means feel free to give up and get modkilled or bussed. However, as mentioned above, it is likely that townies will lose interest in the game much faster than scum will. There are two provisions to this rule: don't stop participating and don't stop defending.
Sometimes your ideas are overlooked or cast aside simply due to the number of strategies or targets being promoted. That doesn’t mean you should stop participating. The town may be tunneling, they may be overlooking something, you may see a scumtell nobody else believes, etc. Each members’ participation is vital to a successful town operation.
4: Kill scum 5: Have fun.
Yet we are not capable of following it? I'd say everyone is, in general, following it pretty well so far.
On May 07 2011 01:12 redtooth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +OK EVERYBODY STOP AND LISTEN Collectively as a group, town is playing the worst mafia I have ever seen. I think there are literally >20 suspects being listed as being scum with only around half that amount actually being actively pursued. People observing the game from the outside are laughing their asses off at the ridiculous level of fingerpointing going on right now and frankly it's embarrassing. There is so much criticism and scrutiny on my help-the-town longpost. Honestly I wouldn't have cared as much if you guys knew all of the advice listed there. But seriously none of you guys have shown that you're capable of following it so far. Do you want to know why I posted it in the first place? Because Chaoser was literally the only person who realized my first vote on Irish was a RVS vote and I immediately lost all hope in having a smart town. It's amazing that some of you are able to move forward with that smug "I-know-you-did-it" attitude after being so blatantly wrong about Kurumi. I think Jackal (very slightly), aidnai (late addition), and I are the only ones on the record arguing against his lynch. Not to mention it's hilarious how so many of you were guaranteeing Chaoser's town alignment and being sheeped by him, only now to turn around and accuse him of being scummy just because. Stop for a second and actually think about what you are doing. If all you have is "there is a possibility _____ is mafia" then stay quiet and pursue evidence indirectly. I don't want to hear your quotewalls and orgies of bad evidence. All it does it make town lose focus on the real suspects. If you do raise an argument against one person, you will be held accountable for the results of either the lynch or the press. Learn how to distinguish a scumtell from a nulltell. Suspicious =/= Scummy. Listen to yourselves talk before you blurt something out. I am connected to Chaoser? My kick-the-hive post was the one that made him fall from Town God status that would have easy-carried him to victory if he was scum. You figured out the entire opposing scumteam? Not a chance, players much better than me and you wouldn't have been able to confidently find even 2 with the level of focus the town has right now. Every post _____ made is scummy? Well everybody looks scummy when you haven't even bothered to objectively consider if he is town at all. Your ideas aren't clever. Your ideas aren't smart. Your ideas aren't correct. From now on, I will show no more lenience.
If you are incompetent and provide a terrible accusation backed by flawed reasoning, I will move forward with the assumption that you are scum trying to derail the thread.
If your terrible accusation is proven wrong by the night kills or otherwise, you will be held accountable.
The people who are not lurking are posting analysis, which is point 1. Now that they are posting analysis, this is bad. You also now are asking people to give up on their analysis, yet never give up was point 3. Plus, isn't hunting scum point 4? Find scum, prosecute scum, lynch scum, beat scum?
People have been posting analysis since the lynch of Kurumi. People are already being held accountable for their posts against him. It looks very much to me as though you are discouraging looking at who voted to lynch him. Sure not everyone on it was mafia and knew for sure that he was town but there are absolutely guaranteed at least 2 mafia on the list of those who voted for him, most likely more considering how easily he won the vote.
Why is pointing out people you believe to be suspicious bad exactly? Who are these real suspects you speak of?
Finally, could you explain to me why suspicious =/= scummy? I don't understand.
All this sounds like to me is "if you don't listen to redtooth, you are a retard, mafia or both". You're trying to lead the town away from finding information.
I'm going to pretend for a moment that I think you are town and are trying to help, which I don't. Provide me with some town guidance.
On May 07 2011 01:32 redtooth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +EBWODP: Node please tell us exactly what time (TL Time or EST) that the Night officially ends.We are starting all over again. The previous pages can be used as evidence but all cases must be set forth again with new, strict standards in mind. Abide by the following: - All official accusations and arguments must be prefaced by the sentence: "I, [name], have thought about the following argument and have relatively high confidence in its accuracy". This is to make sure people aren't just throwing out arguments they don't believe in. Do this for each person you make an official, on-the-record argument against.
- No more than 4 quotes per argument against a player. This is to discourage quotewalls nobody reads and to encourage people actually thinking about what evidence they present. If you need to quote him 10 times to prove he's scum, you're doing it wrong. Unlimited references and paraphrasing is allowed.
- If an official argument sounds valid to you, request to cosponsor it. Arguments not cosponsored within 3 pages or 3 hours (whichever come later) will be dropped. You personally will not be able to make that argument again until the end of the round (day and night count as separate rounds). If another person makes the same argument against the same person, you can cosponsor that one and add your reasonings to it.
[red]Why would you want to completely drop an argument?
- All new arguments made from this point forth cannot link to your previous argument. We are starting over. Even if its the same argument, write it up again. Keep it focused, efficient, and clear. I know I haven't been the best at doing that either but we now will have higher standards.
- Failure to abide by these rules will be automatically receive a pFoS (pseudo Finger of Suspicion) by me.
I will not deny that I am taking draconian steps in reorganizing town. However, unless you really think what I am proposing is anti-town, shut up and deal with it. By the way, this applies to my argument against Chaoser as well. If I make an official argument and it's bad or doesn't adhere to these rules, call me out.
1. What is the point of a formalised declaration about confidence in your own accuracy? Isn't being confident in your own accuracy what EVERYONE has been doing so far? What purpose does it serve? Other than create filler in your posts?
2. Why limit the number of posts you look at? If I see something dodgy in more than 4 posts, why should I leave out the extra ones?
3. Why must cosponsoring happen? Why must we drop arguments of absolutely nothing is done to allay suspicions? Remember your point number 3!
4. Why must we completely ignore every argument we've made so far? Do we pull new evidence out of thin air? The arguments made in the thread become useful later. As you have stated so boldly, people are held accountable if their accusations are proven wrong.
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One more thing I noticed after going over your post again.
On May 07 2011 01:12 redtooth wrote:OK EVERYBODY STOP AND LISTEN There is so much criticism and scrutiny on my help-the-town longpost. Honestly I wouldn't have cared as much if you guys knew all of the advice listed there. But seriously none of you guys have shown that you're capable of following it so far. Do you want to know why I posted it in the first place? Because Chaoser was literally the only person who realized my first vote on Irish was a RVS vote and I immediately lost all hope in having a smart town. At no point have you ever voted for Irish_Punk13. You voted for Cthsazsa, then switched to chaoser. Could you explain please?
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Redtooth, if I survive the night, I am going to vote to lynch you as soon as I get to my computer. If there are any detectives out there, check this guy.
If you force everybody to post exactly the same way then how the hell are we supposed to pick out scum? Your plan is extremely anti-town.
If you want people to improve their posting, why not tell them to be more structured instead of making everyone look the same? If everybody looked the same, we'd get tired of looking at each other.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOI-zEwjdEQ
You still haven't explained the absolute backflip between your original longpost and your new town guidelines. You also still haven't explained your comment about voting for Irish when you never did.
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What redtooth is doing is derailing town. Don't listen to him.
Before his big "reorganisation" people were looking at who voted for Kurumi. Now discussion is being dominated by rules on how we should post. He is trying to shift the focus of town away from scumhunting. If this isn't pushing Mafia objectives I don't know what is.
I urge everyone to continue posting analysis and prodding people. Instead of his rules, I offer two:
1. Keep it structured 2. Back it up with evidence.
That's all you need!
Continue looking at people, keep hunting!
JAMINZ
You received the most incredible blue slip out of KillerSOS.
On May 05 2011 11:11 jaminz wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 11:10 KillerSOS wrote:On May 05 2011 11:06 chaoser wrote:On May 05 2011 11:00 KillerSOS wrote:On May 05 2011 10:50 ilovejonn wrote:On May 05 2011 10:45 KillerSOS wrote: Guess I fall into "doesn't stand out"
Success? >_> ?? Your posts don't hold a lot of value really. I consider myself an invisible poster but I don't spam the thread with useless wifom like what you did here. What do you mean success? You like to not stand out because you are scum? Killer FOS How could standing out possibly be a good thing? Its only going to get you lynched or killed by the mafia. Nice play on my name btw, but I would prefer Killer SOSAlso my whorish posting can be somewhat explained by my lack of interest in working on my paper, therefore I am obsessively F5'ing the thread. I'll be up all night finishing anyways... Actually I agree with Jaminz's recently written post about you. The object of mafia FOR TOWN is not to stay alive till the end. It is to try to find mafia. And to do that you take stances on issues and you fight for them. We're not trying to say another 3 years in congress. However, it IS the job of the mafia to stay alive till the end. I've been standing out all game and I probably will be killed but I'll do some god before I go. FoS KillerSOS. That is an interesting way of putting things. I'll allow you to think of all the possible roles in this game before blatantly explaining how you are wrong. The way you make it look like you are a positive to get killed and in the same statement giving me a FoS is too easy of a lead for any potential mafia to use. Simply put if you were to die tonight, by this line of reasoning I must be mafia. That seems a bit too forward than seems reasonable. Are you saying you're a blue? That's a really dumb thing to say either way.
Your post just now explaining your voting pattern has left out this post just after:
On May 05 2011 11:14 jaminz wrote: Yeah, I posted that without thinking about it, dumb move on my part.
You voted for him anyway. Could you explain please?
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Great minds think alike kita
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Node, you put out a call for subs. Is it possible to find out which players are requesting replacement and why? There are a lot of people lurking and this information is relevant.
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On May 07 2011 03:22 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 03:17 DropBear wrote: Redtooth, if I survive the night, I am going to vote to lynch you as soon as I get to my computer. If there are any detectives out there, check this guy.
If you force everybody to post exactly the same way then how the hell are we supposed to pick out scum? Your plan is extremely anti-town. By examining the content and merit of their argument. Honestly, isn't that what we want? We don't want the speechwriters or the rabblerousers drowning out the silently intelligent. A standard ensures two things: - that there is a minimum (not maximum) quality expected of the town - that there are repercussions for advocating misleading lynches Please, think through this carefully. If after considering it you still believe that it is antitown, by all means feel free to vote me. This post redtooth is really confirming things for me. Don't want to drown out the silently intelligent? What does that mean? It very much looks like "don't too closely at anyone who isn't talking".
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On redtooth
I PM'd Ver for help last night regarding redtooth. Part of this was because I couldn't find his history, which Ver provided.
I was concerned that redtooth was derailing town. The question Ver posed to me was this: Is what redtooth is doing what only a mafia would do? Is there a possibility he is a misguided townie? If he was mafia, why would he draw so much attention to himself for no reason?
My answer is this: on looking back the thread is difficult to read with accusations and massive posts everywhere. It is actually reasonably easy to blend in. I have contributed to this. redtooth claimed to try and drag people back on track and clean things up. Mafia wouldn't want this. redtooth if you are town and were trying to help, I am extremely annoyed with the method you chose to do it. I am however concerned about how quickly 4 votes accumulated on you with little opposition.
Ver also suggested I keep to only one target instead of attacking 7 at once, which on second thoughts makes sense.
ORGOLOVE
His voting pattern for the first day: redtooth switch to chaoser switch to kurumi
He is bandwagoning with whoever is most popular to suspect at the time. This pattern is continued with the first few votes on day 2 when he votes for redtooth.
Orgolove has 9 posts before the game starts, and 16 in total since it has begun. There is a marked change in activity here.
His original accusation on redtooth starts here. It is based around redtooth smurfing in old games and lynch all liars. This isn't really relevant to this game at all.
He continues to push on redtooth.
All up until his reaction to the introduction of the spreadsheet.
On May 06 2011 04:15 orgolove wrote: Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22.
Hmm...
I'm trying to see a pattern here between the players the reds want to coordinate against or no.
Are the numbers in chronological order of the way they were speaking out against? Let me get this straight. Actively using this resource to point out how mafia can use it to coordinate against town?
Then this: nobody picks up on his bandwagon so he abandons it. His vote switches to chaoser on the basis of him making the spreadsheet:
On May 06 2011 04:28 orgolove wrote: Oh wow. I didn't even realize it was chaoser himself that made the spreadsheet. Ugh. Hmm....
orgolove's vote ends up on Kurumi. AT NO POINT DOES HE GIVE A REASON FOR THIS.
This post was made just before the Kurumi lynch:
On May 07 2011 09:30 orgolove wrote: Although I've initially suspected redtooth because of his (kinda dumb) initial post that asked people to share their mafia experiences...
The past ~10 pages have convinced me otherwise.
He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended).
This is pretty clear that he's giving redtooth town points.
On May 07 2011 14:13 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 13:49 DropBear wrote: What redtooth is doing is derailing town. Don't listen to him. Yeah. Actually, this was how I felt in the first place... he started the game by attempting to lead town's discussion into "sharing your mafia experiences" And now he's doing shit like this. ugh. You know what. Despite all my misgivings, I'm voting on him. Beep beep, warning! Wtf?
On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote: I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute. His last post is restarting the bandwagon. He had misgivings not very long ago.
Orgolove is bandwagoning whoever is most suspicious at the time. His votes redtooth despite misgivings. Why would you vote redtooth if you think he could be townie? Why did he vote for Kurumi?
Orgolove is mafia.
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EBWOP: He is bandwagoning whoever is most POPULAR at the time.
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On May 08 2011 14:57 chaoser wrote:DropBear, what are you opinions on Amber, Irish, Beneather, and Cthsazsa? Let's focus on them and leave orgolove for another day. I'll give you that in detail later. I'm leaving in a minute and won't be back for about 8 hours.
In short: if you read my posts you'll see massive posts on Beneather and Cthsazsa. Irish and Amber, not sure.
What is wrong with what I have said about orgolove?
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On May 08 2011 15:11 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 15:00 DropBear wrote:On May 08 2011 14:57 chaoser wrote:On May 08 2011 14:19 DropBear wrote: Stuff about Orgolove
DropBear, what are you opinions on Amber, Irish, Beneather, and Cthsazsa? Let's focus on them and leave orgolove for another day. I'll give you that in detail later. I'm leaving in a minute and won't be back for about 8 hours. In short: if you read my posts you'll see massive posts on Beneather and Cthsazsa. Irish and Amber, not sure. What is wrong with what I have said about orgolove? Because we can deal with orgolove another day. So far we're looking at four people, all of whom people think are scummy and have decent analysis on. Let's not offer too many lynch targets let mafia just ride on random ones and end up with nothing. I'd prefer there were only two lynch targets since then mafia HAS to take a stance one way or another but I'll be fine with 3-4 right now. I saw your massive posts on Beneather and you basically looked at three of his posts and says that he's contributed nothing. Ok, thats fine, but mafia don't do that. Mafia don't not contribute. Mafia try to LOOK like they're contributing but they really aren't. This applys to orgolove as well. He's not TRYING to look like he's contributing, he's just straight up not. Mafia aren't inactive like beneather or Kenpachi is and they're not posting their ass off like redtooth is. They're in that middle region where they look like they're contributing with long posts but ultimately it's all fluff. Mafia aren't INACTIVE, they are LURKING. They know what's going on and they'll jump in from time to time to post something with little substance and be wishy washy on their logic for voting.
Alright, lets keep our lynch targets to two or three. You say mafia aren't inactive like Beneather, so lets remove Beneather. By your same logic, Irish_Punk13 cannot be mafia.
Lets look at Cthsazsa, Amber[Light] and Orgolove.
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On May 08 2011 15:24 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 15:19 DropBear wrote: Alright, lets keep our lynch targets to two or three. You say mafia aren't inactive like Beneather, so lets remove Beneather. By your same logic, Irish_Punk13 cannot be mafia.
Lets look at Cthsazsa, Amber[Light] and Orgolove.
Nah Irish is different in that he's under questioning and he's not posting to respond. He says that he's not logging in cause he forgot his password except you can retrieve and change your password. He also has access to the TL Mafia IRC which I've seen him frequent before a lot so he could have asked one of us to ask a mod for him. He's still on my scum list. Either way he'll be modkilled if he doesn't vote and if he does vote/respond to the thread you can be sure he'll be under intense pressure. If you think Irish is mafia, I have a quote from orgolove regarding that as well, one of his first posts to be exact. A defence:
On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote: Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly.
What do you think about what I've said about orgolove? Other than "lets delay it for another time?"
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Plus if you think he's going to be modkilled, why bother with Irish at all? Why not leave it until he comes back? Orgolove is here now. Orgolove has done these things recently.
If Irish comes back, lets look at him then.
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On Amber[Light]
I do not think he is mafia at all. Hopefully I can show you why.
He has 4 posts before the game begins and 11 posts since. He has shown low levels of activity as town before, let me refer you to Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX as a point of reference. In this game he posted rarely as a blue but still tried to help.
+ Show Spoiler [His first major post] +On May 05 2011 06:17 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 15:09 AirbladeOrange wrote:On May 04 2011 14:09 chaoser wrote: Ok, so I posted that line just to see how people would respond. You can see that I didn't even post in the actual voting thread and already I think I've got some good reactions. Irish, why such a big response, going so far as to posting a link to another website, even saying that you would dismiss me and "not waste time on trying to convince someone I'm not scum". I didn't even actually vote for you, I posted some bolded words that could have easily been knocked down since there was no analysis behind it, and no logic behind it; it had nothing behind it. Why so serious? Why such a big reaction? Same thing to chaos13.
At the same time, why so much silence on the issue from people who were clearly present? Kitaman? You pop in to say that people shouldn't edit but you don't mention a single thing about Irish, a single thing about me, and a single thing about anything. What up? I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said. Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 04:09 AirbladeOrange wrote:On May 05 2011 00:56 Kurumi wrote: Drop Chaoser discussion as scum. He will be probably shot this night because he is good at Mafia and is staying really pro-town. It is good to see some lurkers waking up! I don't like this post. I never like it when a townie tries to end discussion. The town should always encourage discussion. However, Chaoser does not seem to support Kurumi at all. It seems like Kurumi could be trying to defend his mafia buddy Chaoser but Chaoser is being very serious about not defending Kurumi at all. Maybe Kurumi just made a bad mistake that Chaoser is trying to distance himself from it in order to not be involved if Kurumi turns out to be mafia. Chaoser even did a little investigation on Kurumi's other TL posts which is very interesting. Chaoser is a good player which nobody should forget. I believe he has the potential to be a great townie or a great mafia player. Eternalmisfit did a good analysis of Kurumi as well. I think the worst part about him is his posting method. What's up with that? At least if we lynch him and he flips town, we won't have to attempt to read those type of posts anymore. I agree with your overall assessment of Kurumi and I see him at least as of right now being most likely to be mafia. This is my third mafia game. I played haunted mafia a while ago and I had no idea what was going on the entire game. Then I just played Brown Bear's mafia game in which I was a mafia goon. DropBear, Coagulation, and GMarshal were all on my team. I'm trying to understand your posts because you seem to do a little flip flopping. You seem nervous to challenge anything Chaoser has said because of his "vet" status. You are very suspicious of Chaoser on page 15 [see initial quote], but now all of a sudden Chaoser decided to push against Kurumi just enough for you to resist attacking him [see 2nd quote]. I think this might have been a TL mafia first to create a campaign against a player because of posting habits on other parts of the forum. I'd like to believe that people are capable of wearing many hats. One of those hats is used in mafia, while the others are used elsewhere, when appropriate. From a first look I would say Chaoser wants to come in as a town leader but I don't really agree with the methods he used, though they are a bit convincing. Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? You say either they could be together or they could be against each other, but you don't really elaborate on how to figure this out. Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. Do we have an updated list of the inactive players? I saw one a few pages back and I'll bump it in my next post.... If you're new please contribute, ask questions, and start being critical!
This is all very relevant. AO has made strange posts, contradicting himself regarding chaoser. He defends Kurumi on his posting outside this forum. This all seems to me to be helping things.
+ Show Spoiler [Regarding lynching inactives] +On May 05 2011 06:41 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 06:30 Eternalmisfit wrote:Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. As I posted earlier, I am not too keen on lynching a lurker/inactive on the first day in a 30 man setup as a blue kill would hurt us quite a bit. However, if we have someone in the game who has not posted/voted till somewhat close to the deadline and the town cannot reach a consensus on a mafia lynch, I would recommend lynching the inactive person since he was going to be mod-killed anyways. That is my 2 cents on the issue but it would nice to hear thoughts from more experienced players about it. Depends on the situation. Are we going to be sure that the person we're sparing isn't red anyway? Why were we even going to lynch him? I believe that the inactive player should be disregarded as their punishment will be coming, and we need to use the lynches to lynch mafia, not avoid getting duplicate mod kills with potential mis-lynches. Sacrificing 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 0 mafia is bad. Ignoring 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 1 mafia is a pretty good deal.
These are all arguments which have been trumpeted in the last few pages regarding Beneather and Irish_Punk by many people, including myself. He brought them up on day 1 and got no credit for it.
+ Show Spoiler [Large post from Amber] +On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 06:51 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote:On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote: You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior. AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them. I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.
On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote: Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why? We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches. Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now? No it is tunneling when you continually misinterpreting what I said instead of objectively reading it and realizing that it is referring to an era long past. Where do I say you're right? On May 06 2011 06:24 Cthsazsa wrote:On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote: Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate. I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi. I've written a novel on it. It's on the NYTimes bestsellers list. On May 06 2011 06:30 AirbladeOrange wrote: Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.
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Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?
I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.
I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS. I've provided plenty of reason for it. Less confident about Kurumi but still think he leans town nonetheless. The reason is that I thought he burned out after being pressed so hard and that fit his persona of being a slightly immature ADD townie. Instead he came back and spammed with a vengeance. Still fits his persona but a little less so. And you may be "to a lesser extent town" but you're town nonetheless. What are you complaining about? On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote: I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round. Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either: - 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. - 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway. I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us. If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches. If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking. Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk. Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained.
This is the only post I don't understand. He seems to be advocating a lynch for information. Do however note how he has responded to a post about blues.
On May 08 2011 00:21 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 13:51 chaoser wrote: Btw, though redtooth and I are butting heads, I really don't think he's mafia. His posts come off as strong and has a lot of conviction behind it. Mafia are probably sitting back and chilling out and posting without much content. Amber has been such a person. He spent his biggest post quoting previous games and his reasoning for voting Kurumi is basically "Everyone else was doing it, so I did". I'll write a bigger post about it tomorrow. I didn't realize quoting old games was any less important than quoting peoples posts in non-mafia threads on TL.
This is in fact an extremely relevant point. One of the initial arguments against Kurumi was the difference between how he posted in the sc2 forum and here. Old Mafia game history is conversely extremely relevant.
On May 06 2011 07:42 Amber[LighT] wrote: ##Vote: Kurumi This vote immediately follows.
+ Show Spoiler [Defence of himself] +On May 08 2011 00:27 Amber[LighT] wrote:Just putting these here before Chaoser goes on his anti-Amber campaign. I would like to stress that Chaoser is tunneling me. Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:On May 06 2011 06:51 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote:On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote: You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior. AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them. I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.
On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote: Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why? We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches. Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now? No it is tunneling when you continually misinterpreting what I said instead of objectively reading it and realizing that it is referring to an era long past. Where do I say you're right? On May 06 2011 06:24 Cthsazsa wrote:On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote: Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate. I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi. I've written a novel on it. It's on the NYTimes bestsellers list. On May 06 2011 06:30 AirbladeOrange wrote: Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.
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Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?
I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.
I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS. I've provided plenty of reason for it. Less confident about Kurumi but still think he leans town nonetheless. The reason is that I thought he burned out after being pressed so hard and that fit his persona of being a slightly immature ADD townie. Instead he came back and spammed with a vengeance. Still fits his persona but a little less so. And you may be "to a lesser extent town" but you're town nonetheless. What are you complaining about? On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote: I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round. Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either: - 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. - 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway. I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us. If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches.
If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking.Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk. Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained. And after Redtooth posted in response to this post I gave a little clarification about my justification for lynching Kurumi. I was not just voting for kurumi because everybody else was doing it. This is probably going to be the last time I correct peoples ignorance. Please stop tunneling Chaoser. I'm not trying to point my FoS onto you, yet. Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 07:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:On May 06 2011 07:37 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote: If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches.
If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking. I'm fine with that. Sort of surprised that you actually think Kurumi is scummy though. Well, once again, I doubt we'll be shifting votes anytime soon so he's pretty much a lock for the lynch. Off to study, bbl. Voting Chaoser in case I miss the deadline. He's using a lot of diversion tactics and getting really defensive to the point where he was analyzing players that were either targeting him or easy pins for inactivity. It seems like it's more pseudo-analysis than actual content. You know, posting just to post. I'd like to point out that before this post, chaoser mentions Amber on several occasions as someone who he suspects before Amber defends himself against tunneling. Sandroba's argument on the previous page about Amber defending himself pre-emptively due to his own guilt is completely incorrect. Note that chaoser has pushed this list of vets who are posting rarely and who vote for Kurumi. Orgolove and GGQ are on this list too, why not them? All the attributes that chaoser claims are scummy are present in orgolove and Chaoser not only ignores them, he actively tries to get others to ignore them too. Chaoser IS tunneling Amber. Amber has used this trumpeting of his own skill level as an attempt to not get lynched. If defending yourself was scummy, then everyone would be mafia.
Posts of the dead are pointed out here. This is contribution.
+ Show Spoiler [Last major post] +On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 00:40 sandroba wrote: Amber, what's your opinion on the redtooth situation? His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan. We share the same frustrations too. As I'm reading over his most recent posts he's also pretty upset with Chaoser and if I'm not reading into his posts too seriously he is suspecting him more than me. I don't know if Chaoser is just trolling vets or is just trying to get us more riled up but it's causing more and more people to consider him as a lynch target. I think this post has a lot of weight to it: Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 04:33 redtooth wrote:On May 07 2011 04:26 chaoser wrote: You guys do realize that talking about whether we should follow redtooth's strict ass guidelines just allows for scum to seem like they're contributing but not really right? I appreciate the sentiment redtooth but all it does is let people post a whole lot of nothing. That's suspicious yo. Analyzing any alignment right now is a waste of breathe. If anything, it gives scum an opportunity to manipulate lynches to make innocents look scummy. For example: Redtooth: Node is scummy! I'm going to lynch him asap! Node: Stfu no I'm not! Redtooth has been killed. He flipped green.Town: Kill Node! He had the most reason to kill redtooth! WIFOM ensues, followed shortly by chaos then scumwin.There is literally nothing that's needs to happen tonight that we can't do tomorrow morning with more information. That is why I'm not posting an argument against you right now because if I die or if you die then it is a waste of my breath. Alternatively, we can debate standards to set for town posting that will benefit us when day does come around so that town can hit the ground running. Though it makes sense I think strategically his posts would have been irrelevent unless mafia chose to take out Redtooth. It would have made him look incredibly scummy. Think about it from another perspective. If you were mafia and you saw Redtooth accuse Chaoser and chaoser was red, would you still gun down Redtooth to "confirm" him using the WIFOM argument? I think posts at night are more catch 22 than anything else [damned if you do; damned if you don't]. This is all very relevant. Amber is contributing just as much as redtooth, he's just not been as prominent in the thread nor has he tried to force everyone to act the same way.
CONCLUSION
Is Amber attempting to contribute? Yes. Pushing mafia objectives? No. Being tunneled by chaoser? Yes. I am getting a massive blue read out of Amber. He is definitely contributing but isn't trying to stand out.
Don't vote to lynch Amber[Light]. Vote orgolove instead for the reasons I have already given.
Orgolove is choice number 1. Sandroba is choice number 2. After his presence on the voting list for Kurumi, he joins the wagon I started on redtooth. Sandroba has now joined the wagon on Amber out of the three people up for debate. If noone is willing to vote orgolove I will switch to sandroba. Chaoser is choice number 3.
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On May 09 2011 00:53 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 14:19 DropBear wrote: On redtooth
I PM'd Ver for help last night regarding redtooth. Part of this was because I couldn't find his history, which Ver provided.
I was concerned that redtooth was derailing town. The question Ver posed to me was this: Is what redtooth is doing what only a mafia would do? Is there a possibility he is a misguided townie? If he was mafia, why would he draw so much attention to himself for no reason?
My answer is this: on looking back the thread is difficult to read with accusations and massive posts everywhere. It is actually reasonably easy to blend in. I have contributed to this. redtooth claimed to try and drag people back on track and clean things up. Mafia wouldn't want this. redtooth if you are town and were trying to help, I am extremely annoyed with the method you chose to do it. I am however concerned about how quickly 4 votes accumulated on you with little opposition.
Ver also suggested I keep to only one target instead of attacking 7 at once, which on second thoughts makes sense.
In the future, please refrain from quoting / paraphrasing coaches, or directly bringing what they tell you into the thread. We don't want arguments centered around "This is what Awesome Coach told me to do, so it must be correct!"
Ok sorry
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On May 09 2011 01:06 sandroba wrote: @Dropbear Oh my god. What Amber is doing is pretending to be contributing. Go read his posts and you will see there's no pointing to scum at all in any of them. About the tunnelling of chaoser: Many of the previous mentions were not a FoS and were present along with several other members who were also inactive. The first time chaoser FoSed Amber was in the post I quoted in my analysis. This is NOT tunneling. He hasn't pointed at scum. So what? This is precisely what he does done in the past in a blue role.
Why then, has chaoser selected Amber and not orgolove or GGQ?
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