TL Mafia XXXIX
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Mig
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On May 03 2011 11:04 VarpuliS wrote: I'm depressed because no matter how much I spam I still have to wait for at least another month before I get my Zealot. I'm just hoping that it changes at three months, and not 6. Congrats on the (almost) 1000 posts, Aidnai. If you think that's depressing you should try still being a zealot after 7 years. | ||
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The chaoser/redtooth long posts- I don't really have an opinion on whether the posts are scummy or not but a big part of why kavdragon was lynched last game for similar posts was because those were pretty much all he posted. He posted very little actual analysis and the analysis he did post wasn't very good. So as long as red/chaoser post some good analysis I don't think there is a problem with them trying to help out the newer players. AO/Irish/Karumi- I don't find AO that suspicious other than him saying chaoser was suspicious without giving any reasoning. Irish/karumi seem by far the most suspicious to me. Irish saying karumi had made a lot of great posts is either him defending a teammate or he hadn't actually read anything karumi had written. Almost every post of karumi's has had almost no content and has been confusing. I don't know why a townie trying to win would play like him, other than to try and get reactions out of people. But if that's the case I would like to see some more reasonable posts from him. His one analysis post was better but didn't actually have much analysis in it. Cthsazsa- I think the scum slip jackal is going on about is way overblown. It seems a lot more likely to just be a mistake than his attempt to run some mafia agenda of protecting lurkers, especially when hes being pretty active himself. I would be more suspicious of beneather who didn't post at all then instantly jumped on the supposed scum slip. Anyway I guess if I had to vote right now I would vote karumi but I will wait for more information to officially decide. | ||
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On May 05 2011 09:50 VarpuliS wrote: Chaoser has been very pro-town in his posting across the board. Being super-vocal day 1 is a sure way to get killed night one. It's the players who haven't posted any real content that we have to worry about. I agree with varpulis here. And I would add I think it would be a pretty huge mistake to vote for chaoser on day1, unless we had some really damning evidence. He was one of the best players in the last TL mafia. It would be too big of a risk to potentially lose one of our best players unless we were very sure. | ||
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Kurumi- I disagree with most of your analysis of sandroba. Your main points against him seem to be you criticizing his asking people questions saying hes trying to bandwagon their analysis. But really its a good idea to ask people questions and have them make stands so you have posts which you can analyze yourself. I don't believe your story about trying to attract attention to yourself at all really. It just doesn't make any logical sense. You complain about people focusing on you instead of the vets who aren't posting. But of course people are not focusing on the lurkers after you drew so much attention to yourself. And you said you wanted to draw mafia out by having people vote for you on day2 right? So I don't really get why you said you made mistakes, it seems to me if this was really your goal then you just succeeded a day early. It just feels to me like you made this plan up to try and save yourself. So I am going to vote for kurumi, but if irish doesn't post before the deadline defending himself I would probably be ok with switching to him. I would rather not vote for red just yet because he is a vet and I am a little gun shy to lose potential assets to the town early on when our information is still limited. Conversion- The only thing I know for him is he played exactly like this (hardcore lurking) last game and he was town. | ||
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I want you to look at this from my viewpoint for a second. On one hand I see kurumi who is obviously spamming and trolling with 90% of his posts. Who then comes up this ridiculous explanation that all his posting was a plan (I still think this was a lie, I think he just posted terribly at the start and then made up something to try and save himself). Then on the other side the absolute only argument defending him is you saying hes so bad he can't be mafia. Which in my limited experience isn't always going to be the case. Along with this after you defended irish/kurumi you don't make any argument for who people should lynch. You say killer is somewhat scummy but make no argument for him. You say chaoser is the most scummy but then claim you don't have time to make a case to get him lynched. So really with the information that I have who do you expect me to vote for? You accuse the town of sheeping onto kurumi, well maybe if you had made a case for someone else to be lynched you could have convinced the town to switch their votes. And I think your rules are a pretty bad idea. In an ideal world the rules sound like a great idea. But I think when you post this long 10 point list of rules and at the end you say if you don't follow these I am going to assume you are scum, the only thing you are going to do is discourage people from analyzing. If people have to go and follow 100 rules before they can post their thoughts most of them just won't bother. It's going to make it easier for scum to lurk, since less people will be actively contributing. | ||
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If I were going to vote now I would vote for Cthsazsa. I am not 100% sold on him being scum but out of the leading candidates I think he looks the worst. Mainly for his first couple of posts where he was staying extremely neutral and then his reaction to jackals tunneling. I am not completely sold on amber being mafia yet. The long post where he talked about his previous games I thought was pretty shady but I thought his reasons for voting for kurumi were fine. So I guess the main points against him are the long post and just his overall lack of content along with possibly aidnai fosing him. I will wait for him to post more before the end of the day before I make a judgment on him. And so its clear GGQ is the only one claiming to have been role blocked last night right? | ||
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Between amber and cthsazsa I am still pretty torn. But I don't believe it makes any sense for amber to be blue after his long post drawing attention to himself and his great scum hunting abilities. And cthsazsa's recent posts have me leaning a bit more towards him just being new town. So I am going to vote for amber tonight. But really I would like to see one lynched and the other vig hit. Both are pretty suspicious and have a good chance at being mafia and their deaths would give us the most information on peoples alignments. | ||
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Redtooth how can you talk about creating a pro town environment then make such an obviously anti town bet? Sandroba your bet is also anti town and stupid. Why are these bets being discussed at all when this should be common sense. | ||
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On May 09 2011 08:02 chaoser wrote: Varpulis, for the bet to be pro-mafia, mafia would have had to be tunneling amber since day 1 just to get redtooth to be either shot or support mafia lynches. Think about that. You're saying that Amber is being bussed just to target redtooth. No the bet is pro mafia because mafia only accepts the bet when it knows its going to win. Town can never win the bet against mafia since they have complete information. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:29 DropBear wrote: If Amber is cleared, we kill chaoser, sandroba and orgolove. If Amber is red, chaoser is cleared, sandroba is cleared, redtooth probably is as well, maybe even Cthasza. If amber is red it in no way clears redtooth. He was one of the main driving forces behind the lynch of cthasza which could very easily have been to take heat of amber. Along with he defended amber all day and he tried to build a case where if cthasza flips red then it would link chaoser. So I think its quite the opposite. | ||
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I know every game is balanced differently but from the ones I have looked at most of them have balanced mafia/town teams, in terms of vets/new players. So with amber/irish gone I would guess they have 1-2 vets and 2-3 new players remaining. Along with that its a big deal that amber wasn't the gf. I think its pretty unlikely they gave gf to a new player with amber in the game. Which makes it even more likely that between red/kita/GGQ/jonn one of them is gf. For this reason I would probably not dt check one of them and instead dt check the newer players you suspect, eternal or sinani. | ||
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Like kitaman said for chaoser to have been shot twice there's almost no way we have any medics. For GGQ to be mafia and not have been GF. We need to look really closely at the few remaining vets in the game. Primarily kita/redtooth/ilovejonn. | ||
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So basically I would like to know what the numbers would look like if voting had stopped at 11:15 with dropbears vote. | ||
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On May 10 2011 17:22 Forumite wrote: The simple fact that Cthsazsa was a strong lynchtarget the last turn, but show up as -17 (!) in the graph, tells us that this technique is unreliable at best. Well I think it should be pretty obvious at this point that Cthsazsa is town. I believe several of the mafia probably put themselves out there trying to get the lynch from amber onto cth, we already know GGQ did this. If they were both mafia I imagine the mafia would have just hung back or tried to come up with a 3rd lynch candidate. | ||
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I think there's still a chance db is just an extremely overactive townie who has been trying too hard to do analysis on everyone and consequently hasn't always thought everything through before he posts. | ||
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On May 10 2011 18:18 orgolove wrote: Ah. I don't think I see anything that particularly stands out about him from the rest, from voting patterns. All his votes were non-critical. What makes you so sure?... I won't claim I am 99% sure like sandroba but his analysis when he was defending amber/attacking sandroba was poor. As for votes after the votes on amber reached 7 and tied for first 4 people voted for cthsazsa (GGQ, AO, EM, DB) I think there's a decent chance another mafia besides GGQ was in there as they tried to make sure amber wasn't lynched. I will add tho I still believe that between kita/jonn/red one of them is the gf. But it's probably best to focus on trying to eliminate one of the easier to pin targets before we go after the gf. | ||
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Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it? What sense does this make jonn? Just because you have been town in the past it obviously doesn't mean you are town by default in this game. You say you are going to vote EM which is fine but who do you think is the GF and why? | ||
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On May 11 2011 03:59 redtooth wrote: DropBear reads town to me. But then again I've been wrong a lot lately. Voting in case I'm not able to get back before night. Who do you suspect red and who do you think is the gf? Even if you have been wrong a lot its better for the town still if you post your reads. | ||
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EM calling for a vig shot definitely makes him look terrible. His talking about pming node so he can post his role pm makes him look a lot better. But one scenario where he could do it safely is if he pmd node and found out he wasn't allowed to post his role pm before he ever posted in the thread about it. That would have to be a pretty clever play from the mafia if that is true. The main thing I have against sinani is actually an argument EM used. Sinani posts like he either has no ability to properly evaluate information at all or is not reading the thread. His 6mafia swing line was retarded and his day 1 analysis of players was almost completely incorrect. But as EM pointed out it seems obvious hes reading the thread since he was able to post a list of all the people who hadn't contributed and he was around for both day posts. But then as I looked through all his posts on TL to try and judge his reasoning ability I saw that hes only in 8th grade. I don't want to stereotype all 8th graders but his posting makes a lot of sense to me as an overwhelmed 8th grader. And its obvious that his posts are not being coached. With only 3 mafia left I figured the other 2 might try and help him post a bit better to survive, which clearly hasn't happened. So for now I am going to vote EM because of the vig shot he called on himself, because his analysis now seems much better than when he analyzed sandroba, and because after the voting on amber tied 7-7 GGQ, AO, EM, DB all voted for cthsazsa and I thought there was a decent chance at least 2 of them were mafia trying to clinch up the vote. | ||
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@impervious no worries I am 25 and ilovejonn is probably like 45 | ||
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On May 12 2011 11:07 kitaman27 wrote: Wouldn't mind seeing what he flips :/ Seems pretty unlikely he is going to flip GF if he is modkilled. | ||
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On May 12 2011 12:22 sandroba wrote: @Mig I can't seem to find sinani's post that states he's on 8th grade. Could you please point me to it? On April 05 2011 11:14 sinani206 wrote: Let's see if we can start this at my school... Starting 9th grade next year, but I don't know any of the high schoolers, but as far as I know, me and some close friend(s) are the only ones at my school who play SC2. From this thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=209187¤tpage=3#42 Orglove wtf you blame the town when you had your vote basically not count. You come here right after day ends blaming others when you could have voted sinani or argued for a 3rd party before day ended instead of having a null vote. | ||
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You talk about all the work you put in but you didn't post for what like 40 hours? And you are surprised no one went with your ideas after you completely disappear? | ||
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And you still haven't said why you didn't vote between EM and sinani. | ||
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And varpulis chaoser is definitely right, town should not be cocky right now. If we lynch sinani and hes mafia then we pretty much have the game locked up but if hes town then we will have gained very little information from the last 2 days and we won't be in the greatest shape. | ||
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On May 12 2011 13:10 Mig wrote: From this thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=209187¤tpage=3#42 I posted it on p91. | ||
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But I am going to vote for sinani mainly because I think sinani still looks scummy from the previous day. I don't think much has changed for him and I am not completely sold on ilj's or orglove's guilt yet. | ||
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Pretty obvious now that sinani's big post was coached. After that failed to convince everyone I think mafia mostly gave up on saving him. So we need to look closely at the people who voted late for him, redtooth and jaminez especially. | ||
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But first I want to give big props to chaoser who correctly called irish,amber, sinani and GGQ as mafia. What a monster. | ||
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On May 15 2011 16:31 DropBear wrote: If this is the case and the only blues left are veterans, why wouldn't they want to claim? A) If they did it unopposed, noone would lynch them. B) Mafia having only 1 KP means they would have to kill other people. That way the pool of suspicious people shrinks. How is anyone going to oppose them? What is to stop mafia from claiming veteran? There is no way we can know how many veterans are in this game so it would be incredibly easy for mafia to claim them. And we want mafia to hit the veterans..... This should be obvious. If they hit the vets they lose one of their kp. If we announce who our vets are the mafia will know which players they should avoid killing. | ||
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Redtooth - He originally pushed extremely hard that Cth was mafia and tried to link him to chaoser as mafia as well. His voting has been completely useless. Day1 he voted for chaoser when he obviously wasn't going to be lynched. Day 2 he voted for Cth before switching to amber after the dt claim. Day3 he voted for himself pointlessly. Day 4 he was the very last person to vote for sinani and he didn't even bother posting in the thread about it. I guess he might just be a demoralized townie after every single thing hes done has been incorrect but I feel like he might have decided to just lurk after all his plans fell through to try and avoid attention. I also think hes a good candidate for GF. Orgolove - Voting he voted for kurumi day 1. Day 2 voted amber which makes him look a bit better. Day 3 voted for ilj pointlessly even tho he was around and could have cast the deciding tiebreaker voter. Day 4 once again voted ilj and not scum sinani. Has overall been very unhelpful to the town and his comments about gmarshals last day post are suspicious. Gmarshal has been trolling the entire game it should have been very obvious his post was fake I think orgolove reacted to it just so he could use it as a possible defense (which he did the very next page). Also since he is one of the few remaining veteran players hes a good candidate for GF. Forumite - pushed the sinani lynch harder than anyone. This alone should pretty much make him auto town. Varpulis - pushed the lynch for sinani very hard early on. He flip flopped a little on day4 but still ended up voting for sinani. chaos13 - has been on the correct lynch everyday except for the first. Voted for amber and sinani twice. And he pushed a lot for sinani in the last couple days Unsure Kita- Has been on the right side of almost every lynch and I think most of the things he has said have been very helpful to the town. The only reason I don't put him under green is because he is one of the last vets who I think could possibly be the gf. Still I would definitely lean towards him being town. DropBear- Has been on the wrong side of several lynches. He also tried to start up a ilj bandwagon/defended sinani today and was on a sandroba bandwagon for awhile. But he did vote for sinani late in day3 which he def gets big +town pts for. Also I think its clear he is at least putting a lot of effort into attempting to analyze and generate discussion. There was also the slip where he said he pmd ver for coaching advice. ilovejonn- has been on the wrong side of every lynch except for today. Sinani seemed to try and get a bandwagon started against him which gives him some town pts, but it still possible that he was mafia and they were just trying to get him town credit. He is another possible gf candidate. Leaning towards red. Impervious- Haven't had the time to look through his posts but sandroba felt strongly he was mafia so has to be suspected. We have the best case against jaminz because of his voting and the strong analysis kita did of him. He should be our lynch target for today. | ||
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On May 16 2011 15:11 Impervious wrote: ilovejonn is showing up on a lot of different scum lists, and was on chaoser's scumlist. His list proved to be crazy accurate so far, so I don't think that ilovejonn would be a bad lynch for today. Chaoser's scumlist actually hurts your argument since he said he went back over jonn's posts and didn't find them very suspicious. | ||
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Redtooth - He originally pushed extremely hard that Cth was mafia and tried to link him to chaoser as mafia as well. His voting has been completely useless. Day1 he voted for chaoser when he obviously wasn't going to be lynched. Day 2 he voted for Cth before switching to amber after the dt claim. Day3 he voted for himself pointlessly. Day 4 he was the very last person to vote for sinani and he didn't even bother posting in the thread about it. I guess he might just be a demoralized townie after every single thing hes done has been incorrect but I feel like he might have decided to just lurk after all his plans fell through to try and avoid attention. I also think hes a good candidate for GF. Orgolove is very suspicious. It especially doesn't feel right to me that on day3 he was lurking and could have given his opinion and vote to decide the EM vs sinani lynch but didn't. So if people wanted to vote and lynch him I would have no problem with it. Impervious- rising phoenix's posts were suspicious, sandroba seemed 100% sure he was scum, pushed for em and defended sinani and overall his posts just seem a little off to me. I went back and reread jaminz's posts and his long posts do make him look a bit more town. I am still suspicious of him for still contributing very little overall, and while he may have just voted at an unlucky time it is still extremely suspicious that he was the one who saved sinani on day3. So my top 3 lynch candidates would be red/orgolove/impervious. After them I have a 2nd tier consisting of jaminz/ilovejonn/AO. | ||
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So right now I am leaning more towards orgolove being an unhelpful townie more than scum. The only evidence I have for this is basically meta game so I don't think he should be completely cleared, anyone who has contributed that little to town should be under suspicion, but I think it would be better for us to go after more suspicious targets tonight. I am going to vote for jaminz. He has contributed very little even though he has shown in previous games to have the ability to analyze and help the town (similar to amber and GGQ). And his last 2 votes were the final vote that led to a townie being lynched. | ||
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AO elmizzit/db/orgolove I am most suspicious of AO who has contributed pretty much nothing and has been on the wrong side of a lot of votes. The others I am conflicted about. Also I wouldn't put too much stock into impervious martyring himself to save orgolove. What impervious did was incredibly stupid. He sacrificed a confirmed townie (himself) to save someone he really couldn't be 100% sure was town and by doing it he didn't even clear orgolove. Already this game at least 4 people have asked to be killed when under target (EM, ilj, orgolove, impervious). If you are town just defend yourself, panicking and asking the town to kill you doesn't help anyone. | ||
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On May 22 2011 12:12 chaos13 wrote: Alright, I'm down to AirbladeOrange, Ilovejonn, and orgolove as candidates for my vote today. The post ilovejonn just quoted makes me think that Forumite hadn't yet checked orgolove, and that he hadn't actually checked a scum. If I was a DT and checked a scum player, I would be pushing for their lynch as hard as I could, complete with full analysis of those players. I will go back through his posts and find any that might be referring to a DT check. I disagree because forumite voted for him 2 days in a row. So he had one night that he could dt check someone in between his votes. For him to vote for him twice in a row I think he almost certainly checked him. I think forumite was just trying to not to push too hard and tip off he was a dt which would lead to him being killed. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 22:27 Forumite wrote: ANALYSIS: Why orgolove is Scum ____________ Early posts. + Show Spoiler + Defending confirmed scum On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote: Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly. Diverting attention to Town On page 35, after EM posted his excelsheet, orgolove posted that the ones who looked suspicious to him was EM, chaoser, kurumi (and DropBear), two of which are confirmed [green]Town[green]. On May 06 2011 04:15 orgolove wrote: Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22. On May 06 2011 04:20 orgolove wrote: Oh and 17 too. Trying to look helpfull Nothing came of this, even though the spreadsheet could be easily recreated. On May 06 2011 04:23 orgolove wrote: Can you give me this spreadsheet? I may have some pattern recognition software that I might be able to gather, and coordinate the time of the accusatory posts with the contents to see if a particular group of players (reds) were on-line and accusing the same person at around the same point in time. Tunneling on helpfull Town-leader, redtooth + Show Spoiler + Following are a few posts that implicate redtooth as scum, 9 of them. After the first 5 posts against redtooth, he suddenly becomes convinced redtooth is Town, but quickly after, he posts 4 times urging a lynch on redtooth, including a ##Vote. On May 07 2011 09:30 orgolove wrote:He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended). Trying to save Amber by lynching a probable Town as an information-lynch On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote: I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute. A pre-night posting of useless information + Show Spoiler + During Night 2, just 15minutes before the daypost. It didn´t show us anything that the voting thread didn´t allready show. Seriously, the post contained NO usefull data. On May 10 2011 11:47 orgolove wrote: This is in progress - I'm posting this just in case I'm killed in the night (though not likely) [url blocked] The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers. First attempt at analysis, during day 3. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473 The analysis was full of conditions that turn Cthsazsas from +1 to -17, conditions easily tweaked, added or removed to get the desired outcome, or even asking his scumbuddies to vote in a way that makes them look Town to his conditions. This is also referenced later to try and get DropBear lynched. He sends out his FoS, summarized in the next spoiler FoS and votes + Show Spoiler + Focused accusations. Has been trying to get these lynched since Day 1 FoS DropBear 6 FoS Ilovejonn 2 FoS AirbladeOrange 2 FoS VarpuliS 2 FoS Eternalmisfit 2 FoS redtooth 9 Votes on helpfull Town-leaders, Town, and one post on Amber, which he milked for Town-points. Votes! Day 1 ##Vote: Kurumi Day 2 ##vote: Amber[Light] -(tieing Amber with Cthsazsa, for which his analysis makes him more Town) Day 3 ##Vote: ilovejonn His latest post, which was 27h ago. He´s confident that Town will mislynch, so he´s been lurking ever since, there´s no need to interfere. ____________ Conclusion + Show Spoiler + Unhelpfull analysis, the few times he gives it, voting on Confirmed Town or in a way that is used only to gain Town-credit. Defends Irish and Amber. Lurks now that noone is thinking about lynching him. Scum. This post was on page 83 so for the last 35 pages forumite has been pushing orgolove. There is a 0% chance he wouldn't have checked him in this time frame. | ||
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I know forumite was pretty close to confirmed town after he pushed sinani for so long but if I were mafia I probably would have let him live if orgolove was town. | ||
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I think we need to seriously consider that kita could be mafia, and the likely GF. He is an active, good, veteran player and he hasn't been killed yet. It seems really suspicious to me that the mafia is just going after likely townies and not someone who is a good known player. Along with that his analysis of jaminz and impervious ended up being completely wrong, which looks suspicious coming from a good player. If you look at his voting day1- voted for irish late in the day when it didn't matter (a good way to get town cred for voting for an unhelpful mafia member) day2- voted for cth late in the day when the lynch was close between him and amber (could have tried to save a potentially helpful mafia member) day3- voted sinani day4- voted sinani - makes him look a bit better but sinani was worthless, would have been a good mafia to vote for to try and build town cred day 5- voted impervious (town) day 6 - voted jaminz (town) And overall I just have an off feeling about kita's posts. I just don't really buy that mafia made AO or elmizzit gf and xedat having to be replaced is almost certainly not. There is a small chance they could have made chaos or db gf, but I think db is still too inexperienced to get picked and this is chaos' first game on tl. So I think either ilj or kita must be the gf. And after rereading iljs posts I get more of a town feel from him. If orgolove flips red I think we can just about clear ilj and lynch kita. If orgolove flips miller then we should decide between those 2 for who we should lynch. | ||
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Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite. If orgolove flips red I think it mostly clears ilj and we can safely lynch kita. If orgolove flips miller we still lynch kita because then it doesn't really make sense for them to kill formite and let kita live. | ||
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On May 22 2011 14:00 chaos13 wrote: What made your opinion on him change? Ah I worded it a bit wrong, I am still suspicious of AO. But if you look at AO/db/elmizzit they all have suspicious things about them. I think there is a decent chance one of them is mafia but there is a high likelihood that we would mislynch trying to find them. We have a better chance of lynching a mafia at this point by focusing on trying to find the gf (after orgolove). | ||
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On May 22 2011 14:11 chaos13 wrote: And what do we do if orgolove flips vanilla townie? We kill ourselves because our DT inexplicably just tunneled and voted for someone twice without checking them. I think the odds of that are so low I wouldn't even give it serious thought before it actually happened. | ||
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On May 22 2011 14:19 chaos13 wrote: I have a few problems with what you're saying: -You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it -You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town -You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather. Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum. AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig? Orgolove can't be gf if we assume that he came back as red for forumites dt check. If you look at my last long post where I talked about suspects I thought he was a likely gf candidate before this. I voted for amber who was also mafia. But I agree my voting is still somewhat suspicious. | ||
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I think your posts have been mostly pro town other than being wrong about jaminz and impervious. But look I still think the mafia are much more likely to pick a veteran player to be their gf, looking back through old games 80% of the time they picked an experienced player. The only 2 vets left are you and ilj. If orgolove flips red I don't believe that sinani and him would have just been bussing ilj constantly for the last 4 days. So by process of elimination you are a prime suspect. And even though you have been wrong how can you deny it isn't suspicious that you are still alive? It is extremely dangerous for mafia to leave a good, active vet alive this late. | ||
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On May 22 2011 14:40 chaos13 wrote: There are a few reasons they may have killed Forumite. 1. To send town into WIFOM - "He was pushing hard for orgolove, we should kill him." 2. orgolove is scum, and they didn't want the lynch leader alive for another day. 3. They picked up on a huge blue tell, as quoted. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 07:04 Forumite wrote: Keeping with Sandrobas suggestion, I´m checking Amber and Cthsazsa. Unfortunately I can´t get a good read on them. About Amber. Reluctant to point fingers. Talks a bit about Chaoser, but mostly defending himself. Calling attention to the nightkills. Would have lurked much better unless tunneled by Chaoser. Vote on Kurumi for the weak posting. Good music in his Profile. OMGUS: Wall-of-text'ed Chaoser, not a real Omgus but that wall was almost as scary as Redtooths rules. Took no votes at all during Day 1, but tunneling from Chaoser. Cthsazsa, initially no real accusations, talking about inactives and how noone looks scummy. Claims noobtown. Soon starts with FoS. Objects to redtooth and his rules. Defends himself by brushing away accusations or being rude. Not afraid to get attention. FoS and votes on: AO, Conversion, Irish, Beneather, Forumite, VarpuliS OMGUS on: Conversion, Chaoser, possible others 2nd most votes Day 1 (5 after Kurumis 13) Fun fact: Jackal who voted on Cth died. _________________ Crude postcheck, I probably missed a lot of things against them. Right now I get red/bluetell from Amber, red/green from Cthsazsa. A lot of it depends on who you decide are obvTown, because the accusers are more or less the same for both. With Cth battling or accusing Conversion, Irish, two scummy players, makes me doubt the idea of lynching either of them. I´m having trouble backing a lynch on Cthsazsa OR Amber, and will keep my vote on Irish for now. 1. Do you really believe this is true? Forumite has argued for and voted for ogolove for 2 days straight if he was still alive he would still be pushing orgolove. If orgolove is town they would want forumite alive. Instead they could have easily killed kita who is a pro town vet. The only reason for them to kill forumite if orgolove was town is if they didn't have another good option to kill but kita is right there. 2. Right if orgolove is scum gives perfect motivation for forumites death. 3. I doubt this is the case. If they picked up on a blue tell they probably would have killed him much sooner. That post is from like day2. | ||
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On May 22 2011 14:17 kitaman27 wrote: You do realize this is probably why I'm still alive right? Scum saw how much I wanted jaminz dead so they allowed me to live until I pushed him and he flipped green and then use the godfather suspicions against me to get me lynched late game, simply because I've played a couple more games than everyone else. That's weak. A couple more games is a bit of an understatement. This is my 2nd game, this is elmizzit's 1st, AOs 2nd, dbs 2nd, chaos 1st on tl, conversions I think 3rd. You and ilj are way way more experienced than the remaining players. I've only ever been scum once and we chose annul as our godfather in his first ever game. The same exact argument was used in Haunted and it ended in a town loss because nobody suspected the newbie. Also, why would scum give me godfather over Amber when it was extremely likely he would be dt checked on night one? I agree my argument isn't 100% but in the history of tl mafia it is more likely for vets to be picked. And the part about amber applies to everyone still left in the game. So my argument isn't just 100% omg you are the last vet you must be gf but it's the fact that A) its more likely for vet's to be chosen than newbs B) you are a good vet and yet you are still alive in the game while inexperienced players (varp and forumite) are being killed C) you were on the wrong side of the huge amber/cth lynch and you were incorrect on impervious and jaminz when you are a skilled player. None of it is solid evidence but I think all of it combined makes you look pretty suspicious to me. | ||
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Who do you think is suspicious / want lynched after orgolove? Chaos what are your thoughts on me and kita? | ||
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On May 22 2011 16:40 elmizzt wrote: I voted orgolove last cycle, and I will do so again based on the same reasoning as before. Forumite's role reveal only strengthens my belief that org is scum. The orgolove vote is obvious and everyone will vote him. But who do you plan on voting for after his lynch? | ||
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Like I said before I am not 100% that kita is scum but with this few people in the game we should be discussing all possibilities and not take anything for granted. And I would like to hear everyone's opinion on it. Would anyone have a problem if we moved the lynch up to tonight, instead of tomorrow? It seems a lot of people are just going to wait until after orgolove is killed before actually saying anything. If that is the case we might as well get it over with instead of just sitting here for a day. Especially since everyone has already voted. | ||
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And I don't think it matters if the mafia know who we are considering it's not like there was any chance they were going to kill AO/ilj anyway. | ||
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On May 24 2011 13:24 DropBear wrote: I guess miller was an apt role for him. RIP orgolove. I think we should keep it quiet tonight guys. Mafia will be trying to avoid taking out people that are found suspicious. Keep your analysis to the morning, or post it at the very last second of the night. Why would we keep quiet? Mafia is not gonna kill you/elmizzit/ao/ilj tonight regardless of what we say. We should not be quiet when one of the only active people left is going to be killed. We need to discuss what our best play is now while we have the chance. If we keep quiet you are going to quickly find yourself trying to scum hunt with people who have posted 3 times in the last 2 days. | ||
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On May 25 2011 09:38 kitaman27 wrote: After writing a fairly long argument against AO, I've come across a post that I originally missed that may have changed my mind. I probably won't be able to stay up until 11 tonight to post it before the day post so I will post it tomorrow, assuming I survive the night. I am writing a post against AO right now, can you at least give a summary of your ideas? And what is your final opinion of DB. I understand you maybe tired but if you are killed tonight would be terrible for town if you don't have your opinions posted. | ||
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xedat- conversion I was very uncertain of but since being replaced all of xedat's posts seem very pro town to me. And assuming he is not a smurf and this is his first game I really feel he is town. I think it would be very hard for a first time player to jump in mid game as mafia and immediately start analyzing people and making pro town posts. DB- He has been wrong on so so much of his analysis, his voting history is very bad (voting sandroba and cth on day2) also the posts that AO quoted where db seemed to be trying to save sinani make him look terrible. However he also reversed himself and called out sinani's long post for looking like it was coached (which I totally agreed with). So that + his constant activity and scum hunting + the slip where he mentioned being coached by ver + the fact that he is 100x more active this game compared to last game where he was mafia all lead me to believe that DB is town. If we lynch AO and he flips red I am even willing to say with close to 100% certainty that db is town. So basically those are the people I am fairly confident are town. People I don't trust kita- His posts are certainly pro town overall but I don't trust him for the reasons I listed before. I won't push for his lynch right now because I don't think people will vote for him but I think everyone should keep in mind the possibility that he is mafia. elmizzit- Has basically been worthless the entire game. He voted for beneather pointlessly during the huge day2 lynch, similar to sinani leaving his vote on kevconsim. But he did at least vote for sinani the next day. Eh overall not sure what to make of him other than he probably has contributed the least out of everyone in the entire game. And then the 2 main lynch candidates we have for today. ilovejonn- He hasn't contributed much to town and his voting record is definitely terrible. I don't know what to think really about him. His posts around when he was first accused and he offered to let the town lynch him seem town to me. Some of his other posts make him look worse but I guess overall I lean towards town for him. AO- AO I think is the best target for us to lynch today. He has the worst voting history of anyone left by far. Day 1 he voted kurumi town Day 2 he voted cth late in the day when the vote was close between him and amber- extremely suspicious Day 3 he voted for em helping to save sinani Day 4 he voted for the obvious sinani Day 5 and 6 voted for orgolove- can't learn much from this since everyone fucked up here. He has also contributed nothing really to help the town. If kita or someone else can post a good argument for why AO should be saved I am open to listen. But for now AO is our best choice for lynch. Also I really hope chaos posts his thoughts before the end of the night. | ||
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I can't be 100% sure, the only people we can be sure he checked are chaos/sinani/orgolove. There were 2 other nights he could have checked AO but considering he defended him before he could even check people I think he probably chose targets he was more suspicious of. I am going to put my vote on AO. If there is a strong argument made defending him I might still change but right now I would say he has the most going against him. | ||
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But this doesn't really make sense to me. A) mafia kp was on the line so it would have been in their best interest to target a townie so they chose an easy target (ilj because he was already being tunneled non stop by orgolove and kita had listed him as suspicious) B) if they were just trying to buy jonn town cred why bother coaching sinani? They could have had sinani make his usually nonsensical analysis and it would have worked the same. But by having it coached and seem reasonable there was a chance it could actually work and they would lynch ilj (which mafia would not want), and it actually did almost work as several people switched to ilj. After thinking about it I am feeling more and more certain that ilj is town. | ||
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We have no mislynches left. | ||
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During the previous day I posted about how I was suspicious of kita. I have done a lot more thinking on it and I am 100% sure now that kita is mafia. First I will briefly summarize the points I used before. 1) During the biggest and most hard fought lynch of the game, day 2 amber vs cth, kita voted for cth. Not only did he vote for cth but he voted late in the day when it was tied 6-6. It was extremely important for mafia to win this lynch and we already know one mafia member, GGQ, voted for cth late in an attempt to save amber. In fact GGQ's vote was just 45 min after kita's. Also consider that earlier in the day kita had said he was suspicious of amber yet he still voted for cth. You might think voting for sinani on day 3 would somewhat clear him, but look at when exactly he voted. He voted for sinani when it was 7-4 in favor of EM with sandroba leading the charge to get him lynched. Kita knew that he would be under heavy suspicion after being on the wrong side of the amber lynch. So all he had to do was vote for sinani late that way A) he wouldn't be linked to voting to lynch another townie and B) it wasn't a big risk because at the time it looked like EM was going to be lynched anyway. 2) Despite what kita says the godfather IS more likely to be an experienced player. Look back through past games 9/10 times the godfather is a vet. Kita and ILJ are the only 2 vets left. It is much much more likely for kita to be gf than conversion, elmizzit, myself, db when it is all either our first or 2nd games. 3) Kita is a good experienced player who people feel is town and yet he is still alive. First time players like forumite and varpulis are being killed off while kita is still around. The forumite kill is especially telling. Forumite was campaigning non stop to have orgolove the townie lynched. Yet mafia killed forumite because at the time the only people that were considered pro town were kita and him. It makes so much more sense for mafia to kill kita who was perceived as a pro town vet than forumite who was a 1st time player campaigning hard to lynch a townie. And now I will discuss my new points which are even more damning of kita. 4) His analysis against jaminz was bullshit and was only done to further mafia goals. His first argument was that jaminz was playing completely different this game than in previous games. This is completely false, while jaminz was active in newbie mini mafia for one day, look at mafia XXXVIII. That game was of comparable size to this one and had a mix of vets and new players. During that game jaminz lurked as a townie for almost the entire game, very similar to how he played in this one. Kita played a big role in that game and he should know this. He also criticized jaminz's posts saying in the previous games they were much more detailed and now he is playing the newbie lurker card. But actually go through and look at jaminz's posts. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2011 11:36 jaminz wrote: I’ve been pretty inactive over the past few days, but I caught up this morning, and have decided I’m going to vote for: Eternalmisfit First of all, let’s look at his voting record: Day 1: -Votes Kurumi (turned out to be green, but was suspicious so this is totally understandable) Day 2: -Votes Sandroba, who, based on his scum-hunting, I see as pro-town and a good target for mafia. -Follows up this vote with a switch to Cthsasza when there was a close race between Cthsasza and Amber[Light], who turned out to be mafia. This would be an obvious move for mafia to make in order to save one of their own. Even before looking at any posts, this is a fairly suspicious voting record. Early on he made a spreadsheet that listed possible connections between players. This looks helpful on the surface, but I think it’s a pretty good way to just act like you’re helping people without having to really say anything. Look at the quality and substance of a post, not aggregate numbers of who is accusing/defending who. + Show Spoiler + On May 09 2011 04:38 Eternalmisfit wrote: Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be). Having said that, despite my misgivings with Chaoser and Sandroba, I do agree that the vote is way too fragmented and with 10 people yet to vote, mafia can easily make last minute votes to influence the lynch. I would agree with focusing on these three in my opinion. If I were mafia, I think this list would make total sense. You have an easy scapegoat (Cthsazsa), a scum-hunter (Sandroba), and a guy you’d that’d make you look suspicious if you didn’t include (Amber[light]). Out of the three of these, I feel like the other two are town (based on the close race between Amber[light] and Cthsazsa. + Show Spoiler + On May 09 2011 05:48 Eternalmisfit wrote: Let me recap the events of last night. You started off with a FoS on Amber which was followed by Sandroba's rather quick jump from redtooth onto Amber. At the point where I first pointed Sandroba seemed suspicious, a bandwagon seemed to be forming against Amber. Several others started stating Amber seemed a little scummy without backing it up with any analysis. If I had not raised my suspicions on Sandroba, a similar bandwagon to the one on Kurumi would have formed on Amber. Even if Amber flipped green/blue after a lynch, it would be hard to pinpoint any scum strongly since a large number of townies would have been mixed in with the scum (like what happened with Kurumi). At this point, even if the lynch of Amber goes ahead and he flips town, it will be quite clear who all are suspicious. As to why Mafia would want Amber dead, I (and also several others in this thread) have got a potential blue read from Amber. Getting a blue lynched would be a big victory for scum at this point since town already lost 2 blues on Night1. As for my case against Sandroba, I have stated it before and do not see the necessity of restating it again. A defense of Amber. I shouldn’t have to explain why that’s suspicious. Later posts: I can’t see a reason why he’d claim to be a vanilla townie. It’s a dumb roleclaim, and just makes me even more suspicious of him. Claiming seems like a desperation move when you’re trying to get the focus off of yourself. If you’re town, you should be more worried about finding scum than dying. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 08:42 Eternalmisfit wrote: Firstly, regarding your other post, I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba as I was convinced that he was scum more than you. However, a few people stated towards the end of the day that I should take a stand between the two of you and thus I voted for you. If I was scum and knew Amber was scum, why wouldn't I have voted for Cthsazsa long before that point in order to increase the lead between Amber and Cthsazsa instead of focusing on Sandroba (it was clear that he was not going to be voted at some time before that). As for ilovejonn's accusations and anlaysis. Point 1: Non-important as it was just A FoS Point 2: I cant even count how many PbP analysis had been on Day1. Interesting you pick apart each of my posts the same way I did for Kurumi and then claim I am scum for that. Point 3: The strategy of voting a person likely to be mod-killed was something I proposed in Surpirsingly normal mini mafia in case the town didnt reach a consensus well and it worked out decently there. It is the same logic I applied there. Point 4: I voted for Kurumi since he posts seem to focus on derailing town discussion and not because his posts were bad in grammer/hard to follow. Also, there was no content in his spam posting Point 5: I was of the opinion Irish is a reasonable lynch target as well. If you see the post I was referring to, redtooth made a specific argument for Irish and thus, I was replying in context of Irish. I still believed Kurumi was a better lynch target at that point. Point 6: I posted later that I got busy at work and thus will be unable to make the post. It is interesting that someone who claims about lower activity due to real life stuff use the same argument to paint someone else as scum. Point 7: Spreadsheet - If making a spreadsheet showing who voted/FoS/defended whom makes me scummy, I don't know what to respond that with. Also, at this point, I would recommend that if someone is putting a vote on someone (be it me or someone else), please make a case or argument as to why you are voting for that person. Despite me being wrong or right, I have always posted as to why I voted for someone unlike a lot of people who either made bandwagon votes or voted w/o posting any explanation at all. In any case, quite a few people are missing from thread completely today and I would like to hear their opinion/take on the discussion. Them being: VarpuliS, Kenpachi, jaminz, Conversion, and sinani. Holy crap. Did you really just spend this much time defending yourself? I don’t see a reason any town member would find it worth it to spend that much time defending themselves. Yes, make a quick defense, that’s fine. But to go point by point seems a little excessive to me. I don’t think there’s a need for town players to do this, but it would obviously be necessary for mafia. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2011 08:22 Eternalmisfit wrote: Interesting that you say so since I posted my reasons here. First analysis Then, I also clarified when you raised a question here and here: 1 2 Also, you read those posts very well since you questioned me on the initial analysis (to which I replied) and said I was building a case against sinani206 here: Forumite's post Whether you agree with my analysis or not, I believe I have posted my suspicions more coherently than Sinani's agruments against me. I also find it suspicious that you choose to ignore what you clearly read and commented on and summarized my vote as I am not 100% convinced that he's mafia but among the people I suspect, he is the most likely one. I am going to my reads on different players as well since it is quite likely I will end up getting lynched. Also, I won't be on again till much later. Town reads Sandroba - for obvious reasons at this point. Kenpachi - for obvious reasons at this point. DropBear - Townie claim, general posting, and tying himself so closely with myself. At this point, if I flipped red, he is nearly #1 target for next lynch. scum reads Sinani - voting patterns suggest that he is either disinterested townie or scum. It is unlikely that he is disinterested townie based on my above analysis but it is not a 100% read. Ilovejonn - If you leave aside the fact that he raised suspicion on me (which is why he is not being considered at the moment), he has shown rather scummy behavior i.e. suggesting he always gets town, claimed blue read on Amber (would suggest asking him why he thought so), weak FoS on me on Day2 start, trying to gain town cred based on a dead man's read. Conversion and Elmizzit - Textbook examples of posting w/o contributing. They also seem to be good at making themselves not noticeable. In fact, I don't recall anyone having analyzed their posting. Suspicious reads - not necessarily scummy jaminz - Missing from thread in general. Vote 1 was inexplicable since he knew Killer was Blue but still voted for him. Vote 2 was accompanied by contradictory reasons. He votes for Amber early so that is why I don't get a clear scum read but that might have been an attempt to bus Amber. redtooth - sudden decline in activity. Lot of people have been wrong in their votes (hell, I am a perfect example for it) but very few have shown such a sudden decline in activity. orgolove - He never explained why he switched his vote from Redtooth->Chaoser->Kurumi on Day1. His Day2 vote was on Amber which I why I am hesistant on this as a scum read. Null Reads Kitaman VarpuliS Impervious - mostly due to lack of sufficient posts to analyze Mig I am confused on my reads about Forumite, AirBladeOrange, Cthsasza, and Chaos13 but it is mostly a combination of mixed signals and gut feelings so I am not posting them here. This post gave me a bit of a pro-town vibe as he does some analysis, but he still spends a large amount of the post defending himself. That bothers me. Thus, I’m voting for Eternalmisfit. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 10:54 jaminz wrote: I’ve changed my mind about chaoser for the most part and tend to think he’s more town than scum at this point. His posts have been constructive, and he’s done some good analysis so far. I didn’t like how Karumi was posting before, as I think a lot of it just ended up confusing everyone. He seems to have stopped that so far, whether that’s from not being able to check the thread or through conscious effort is hard to say. I think he may have realized he was somewhat close to getting lynched and decided whatever little game he was playing was doing more harm than good. I guess we’ll have to see how he continues to post. I think the case against Irish_Punk13 has been the strongest so far. He had no reason to say that Karumi’s posts were good/to defend him. There was no evidence from Karumi’s posts that would lead anyone to believe they are helpful unless he’s seeing something in them that I’m not. For this reason I think the actual defense of the weird posting is more scummy than the actual weird posts themselves. I understand why people are suspicious of AirbladeOrange, but I feel like what he said wasn’t that horrible of a thing to say, was it? This is my 4th game of mafia now, so I understand why it’s bad to say its fine to just go and lynch someone even if they might be town, but I feel like there are other candidates out there who would be better lynch targets. I don’t really understand why Jackal is tunneling Cthsazsa so hard, but I guess it’s probably just to try to get a reaction out of people. I don’t really understand why he picked Cthsazsa when there were better candidates in my eyes. I guess it could have just been random. I don’t really see the harm in it other than the fact that maybe the aggression could have been put to better use somewhere else (maybe redtooth since he was suspicious earlier but hasn’t posted much recently?). I did want to mention some thoughts about KillerSOS. So far, he has 49 posts in the thread, and I’ve seen only one that even attempts analysis. In pretty much everyone of his posts all he’s doing is agreeing with other people about who they’ve suspected. He posted briefly about his thoughts on Jackal, Cthsazsa, and chaoser, and decided that chaoser is the most suspicious because he posted a lot in the beginning then (seemingly) dialed back later on. His posts don’t really seem to have much substance to them. He’s definitely suspicious for me. If I had to pick someone to vote for right now, it’d likely be between Irish_Punk13 and KillerSOS. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 12:02 jaminz wrote: I've been gone for a while, but I'm more or less back now : ) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems the case for voting for Amber[LighT] stems from his big post about being great at scum-hunting, and then his subsequent failure to post any real analysis, coupled with the fact that he’s a veteran player. Do I have that right? I definitely don’t get a strong town vibe from him (lack of analysis, lack of opinions, etc.) but I’m also having a bit of trouble being convinced that he’s scum. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 06:17 Amber[LighT] wrote: I'm trying to understand your posts because you seem to do a little flip flopping. You seem nervous to challenge anything Chaoser has said because of his "vet" status. You are very suspicious of Chaoser on page 15 [see initial quote], but now all of a sudden Chaoser decided to push against Kurumi just enough for you to resist attacking him [see 2nd quote]. I think this might have been a TL mafia first to create a campaign against a player because of posting habits on other parts of the forum. I'd like to believe that people are capable of wearing many hats. One of those hats is used in mafia, while the others are used elsewhere, when appropriate. From a first look I would say Chaoser wants to come in as a town leader but I don't really agree with the methods he used, though they are a bit convincing. Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? You say either they could be together or they could be against each other, but you don't really elaborate on how to figure this out. Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. Do we have an updated list of the inactive players? I saw one a few pages back and I'll bump it in my next post.... If you're new please contribute, ask questions, and start being critical! Early on he posts some general thoughts about the game, and seems to generally just be asking questions. I understand that a popular scum strategy is to ask questions/get opinions from others while pretending to, or even completely failing to, give their own views. This post looked fairly harmless to me, but I could see how it could be scum behavior. + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote: I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway. I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us. If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches. If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking. Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk. Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained. I actually began to get a slight town read from him based on this post. I thought his views on the Kurumi situation was very calm, logical, and thought through. He didn’t immediately advocate for an immediate FoS on chaoser if Kurumi flipped green. If he were scum, it’d be easier to push for a chaoser lynch (assuming chaoser is town – we don’t really know that though). He could pushing immediately for chaoser would be a dumb thing to do since he’s a veteran, but going into that just starts a big WIFOM argument. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 00:27 Amber[LighT] wrote: Just putting these here before Chaoser goes on his anti-Amber campaign. I would like to stress that Chaoser is tunneling me. And after Redtooth posted in response to this post I gave a little clarification about my justification for lynching Kurumi. I was not just voting for kurumi because everybody else was doing it. This is probably going to be the last time I correct peoples ignorance. Please stop tunneling Chaoser. I'm not trying to point my FoS onto you, yet. This is his most suspicious post in my opinion. He’s being very defensive about Chaoser’s “tunneling.” I agree that Chaoser is being aggressive, but I think to call it tunneling, and then to post a defense of himself while not contributing any analysis is pretty suspicious. He posts a vague threat at the end, which adds to my suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 00:50 Amber[LighT] wrote: Some important posts to look at: Jackal58: + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote: Alright then. A little free time. Chaoser/Redtooth - 1 of them is scum. Would be worth a lynch of Chaoser and if he does flip green vig Redtooth. I'm leaning more towards Chaoser being the scummy one. sandroba - scum GGQ - scum Cthsazsa - scum Eternalmisfit - scum Chaos 13/ Irish Punk 13 - Leaning much more towards Irish. He's a very active player. Now absent. That's the way I see it at the moment. Sorry if I didn't submit the correct form. I couldn't find a "Tunneling Request" form On May 07 2011 08:17 Jackal58 wrote: I'm not a fan of lynching people because they appear wierd or different or stupid. But I can understand it. I do guarantee you that at least 4 on his lynch were scum. Hell maybe more. On May 07 2011 06:55 Jackal58 wrote: First chance I've had to read this since my post this morning. I got as far as Redtooths requirements for FoSing somebody. Sorry dude. I'm not filling out a form letter to satisfy your ego. Don't like it. Lynch me. I may not be able to go through all of this before some time on Sunday. I'll be reading but I probably won't have much heart to put into it for the next day or so. My dad is dying and my thoughts and duties are with him and my family atm. Don't replace me Node. This is my distraction from the real world. On May 06 2011 23:31 Jackal58 wrote: But as town you wanted him dead? But if you were scum you would never want him dead? But as town you did? But as scum you wouldn't? So since you voted for him you're obviously town right? Because obvscum would want him alive? But you have no problems with voting for obvtown? It's not rape. It's surprise sex. Enjoy it scummy. On May 06 2011 00:50 Jackal58 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 00:30 chaoser wrote: @redtooth Except I have focused on him? There's a certain thing called reading the air. I've already posted my thoughts on Irish, barely anyone responded to it and everyone seems to find it better to lynch Kurumi. I already consider both of them to be scum based upon behavior (Kurumi says to stop talking about me and 100% supports a lynch of Irish, AO accuses Kurumi, Irish comes in and chainsaw defends Kurumi with AO, Kurumi IMMEDIATELY switches votes onto AO) In this situation, whether we vote Irish or Kurumi, doesn't matter since 1) Both of them are acting scummy 2) Both lynches will be telling of the other person's alignment. The reason I push Irish's lynch is because I am more confident about his lynch over Kurumi's (70% sure vs 60% sure). Go reread KillerSOS' posts. People think he is scummy because of his line "Why would I want to be lynched, I don't want to die." Go reread his posts and decide if he's just a simple newbie or red. Either way, we can discuss his lynch tomorrow, after the night. About Irish. At the end of the day, whether you think he is mafia or not, he hasn't come back yet to defend himself at all. He has yet to explain his "Kurumi has made excellent analysis statements" and he has yet to explain his quick sudden suspicions onto AO. He literally popped in, said almost nothing, and then hasn't posted since. You're damn straight I find that scummy as fuck. I quote this line way too much but Ace, when he was helping coach Team Melee said: About Kurumi. Kurumi is tied to Irish and you can see in his crazy convoluted posting that he's still trying to push the lynch off Irish. No where in that post does he address the Irish issue. He doesn't explicitly defend him but he does insinuate that both of them are town. He passes off all the conversation on them as "scum forming an easy bandwagon". He states: but previous to this stated: So did he PLAN to act as an easy target to draw mafia out to band wagon him or was it just mistakes? He's wishy-washy here. Either state that your posting was planned all along or that your posting was "mistakes", stick to a statement, not both. Could be all that. Could be just overwhelmed noobs. If Irish is scum he'll out himself. Cthsazsa already has. His response to my poke was over the top and quite extended. His post I poked him about was a pure scum agenda. His response was pure scum response. He constantly evades the issue I poked him on and shifts it to a not 'knowing the definitions of lurker/inactive" That's not the item in his post I FoSed him on and I told him that. Yet he still tries to deflect back to that issue. He's scum. I am voting for him and urge you all to do the same. I may not be back before day is over. I have to travel to Dallas. So I make my vote now. Aidnai: + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 03:30 aidnai wrote: FoS? Vote? might we expect a fullblown analysis with an accusation soon? I must say I look forward to it if you do it. Amber is certainly a scummy player and I plan to push his lynch today, but I can't tell if you're serious about him from this post. On May 07 2011 02:51 aidnai wrote: dropbear, think how much better the thread would be to read if people went by redtooth's advice. It is protown. Please don't fight it. The problem with the thread yesterday was that everyone was posting analysis, and (almost) all of it was half-assed and not even worth responding to. Therefore nobody was responding, so none of the cases gained traction (except kurumi t.t). In this situation, scum is not pressured, scum can make weak arguments, scum can wagon freely, scum can lurk without being punished. If everyone is held to high standards, how are the scum going to contribute? if they try to do real analysis, it's either fake (therefore usually weak as well) or a bus. BTW, you are one of the shining examples in the thread so far, i doubt redtooth had you in mind when he wrote this stuff. And he answered your questions already, read his posts again. redtooth's initiative is a pro-town take over of the thread, get on board all townies. On May 06 2011 08:44 aidnai wrote: i know, right? I'm going out for the evening, and since Irish hasn't posted yet, I will not remove my vote. Of the three vote leaders, I think Irish is most likely to be scum, followed by cthsazsa, followed by kurumi. See you guys later. On May 06 2011 07:49 aidnai wrote: This was a pretty good post cthsazsa, you should do more like this. I'd like to hear more opinions on cthsazsa from kita and chaoser. So far, I agree with jackal's original reasons for pressuring, but i kind of have a null read on cthsazsa's response. The fact that he's done very little in the thread other than one-liner spam defense + a brief spat with conversion is a big strike against. But I do like his post on conversion... I'll just state this right now, I will be very surprised if kurumi does in fact flip red, and I wish sheeping townies would move their votes. There is no reason for a scum to attract attention the way that kurumi has been doing. GGQ's point about serejai is moot. There are key differences between these cases -- serejai was a hardcore lurker, kurumi is quite active; serejai was (and is) a big troll and is also demonstrably quite clever as seen by his posts elsewhere on the site, kurumi that I know of has no history on this site to make a similar conclusion; kurumi has been interacting with the thread, addressing current issues etc, serejai only did this on perhaps one occasion. There is also the language issue that makes kurumi's posts seem stranger than they actually are. And yes kurumi has made some troll posts, but that can be explained by frustration. Serejai made troll posts just because. On May 06 2011 05:59 aidnai wrote: There is room for differences of opinion, but I would 100% rather lynch someone useless (kenpachi, takuna, lyter, etc) day 1 as opposed to a vet. On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote: First, to address your line of thinking: lynching for information is a bad idea, that is not why we are lynching either player. Your situations and hypothetical ideas are in fact wrong, if we lynch either player, we will not get any reliable information for the next lynch. We get at most a piece of evidence that we'll be able to factor into a decision. Kurumi is probably town, based on two things: - thread response to pressure on him (easy bandwagon) - His posts are extremely un-'guarded'. Meaning, it seems clear that the last thing on his mind is trying his hardest to look like a town, which is actually the first thing on the mind of a scum. In this sense, yes, it is true that the most 'obvious' scum are often bad townies. Irish_punk on the other hand: - is ignored as a bandwagon target - his posts (what few there are) are in fact guarded, and now he's too scared to show his face around here. Please consider switching your vote. As I consider myself a player who could stand some improvement, I'm interested in seeing you differentiate killerSOS from kurumi and AO. I currently am reading AO Kurumi and Killer all as noobtownies, AO less noob than the others. This seems like an extremely weird question to ask, but i'm interested in the answer to this as well. :/ I find it suspicious that all you have done so far is defend irish and attack kurumi. Kurumi is in fact an easy target, so i can hardly blame anyone for wagoning him, but if that is the ONLY thing you have done, it looks fishy. FOS chaos13. added in Lyter for you. Would also like to add conversion to this list. Players like beneather and amber have been around long enough that I doubt they will be easily vote-pressured into appearing. I hope you'll consider using your vote elsewhere. When I read sandroba asking chaoser for help, I understood that to mean that Sandroba looks up to chaoser. Asking for chaoser's opinion can help sandroba validate his own opinion about conversion and at the same time make a new opinion--about chaoser! I can understand this because I think and behave the same way in thread. When Chaoser didn't really buy the analysis, sandroba dropped it for a while, imo because he respects chaoser's opinion a lot. But he still brought it up later looking for more support, showing that he actually meant what he said in the first place. All of this is consistent from my point of view with sandroba being a greenie. Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote. On May 06 2011 03:38 aidnai wrote: I think Lyter, Conversion, Amber, and rising_phoenix are all good lynch targets that haven't gotten much discussion yet. (For the record though, amber has looked scummy to me pretty much every time I've played with him-_-.) Do you really not find anyone at all scummy or at least scummier than chaoser? Also it seems you misunderstood something about PMs -- the scum team can most definitely PM each other. The single most scummy thing that irish_punk has done is go AFK exactly when the heat was turned on. This is even worse for him since the heat was, as you have pointed out, not a strong case at all. I cannot discount this possibility because it is exactly how I dodged a lynch once upon a time. Your maths game is biased by the way, sorry i didn't play along -_- Here's my own version: -is it more likely that a noob townie would skip the thread after facing a weak accusation, or a noob scum? In my experience, the noob is much more likely to respond with defense and increased activity. But a noob scum would have a team to advise that a better course of action is to lay low and let the thread move on. I believe that irish_punk is active lurking right now. His excuse for not posting was checking his other game, which means he's still online, still able to read this thread, he just doesn't want to post here. If he was a noob town, I seriously doubt he could resist the urge to post some response to this kind of pressure. Last -- I do not understand why you consider him obviously town. You also allude to him giving an 'abundance of information' and not being 'guarded'. Having read his (11) posts, this description does not seem apt, please state your evidence. KillerSOS: **Not much on him. His posts weren't as valuable as the other two imo. + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 14:22 KillerSOS wrote: I didn't have a solid target, but you can look back and see that I said he was town. anyways, headed to bed. On May 06 2011 03:43 KillerSOS wrote: That table does bring some interesting things into easier view. First and foremost is that redtooth is defending both Irish and Kurumi, two of the most scummy looking players at the moment. Honestly defending players is worse than attacking at this early stage, unless you are over the top with it. On May 05 2011 13:02 KillerSOS wrote: Because the people who have provided analysis on his posts seem to be the most correct? Cthsazsa posts alot like me... short and numerous. For some reason I feel as though it might be the incorrect method of play, but it is enjoyable to say the least. Again, we have a whole bunch of nothing really. He lays out a few posts he thinks are “important” which are really just posts from the people who died. He doesn’t bother to post any analysis on why he thinks they’re important, however. It’s hard for me to see the reasoning behind leaving out analysis, as I think analysis is always pro-town. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote: His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan. We share the same frustrations too. As I'm reading over his most recent posts he's also pretty upset with Chaoser and if I'm not reading into his posts too seriously he is suspecting him more than me. I don't know if Chaoser is just trolling vets or is just trying to get us more riled up but it's causing more and more people to consider him as a lynch target. I think this post has a lot of weight to it: Though it makes sense I think strategically his posts would have been irrelevent unless mafia chose to take out Redtooth. It would have made him look incredibly scummy. Think about it from another perspective. If you were mafia and you saw Redtooth accuse Chaoser and chaoser was red, would you still gun down Redtooth to "confirm" him using the WIFOM argument? I think posts at night are more catch 22 than anything else [damned if you do; damned if you don't]. His most recent post confuses me. He took the time and effort to try to defend himself earlier when there were (relatively) few accusations against him, but now that he’s the major lynch target he doesn’t even address the situation? Did I miss a post by him explaining his behavior? I can’t say this is terribly scummy as we chaoser (and others) encouraged him to post analysis, and he’s posting his thoughts on a situation in this post, but it is confusing nonetheless. I’m not going to place my vote on Amber[LighT] for now as I haven’t done enough analysis on other players to compare him with (though I’m working on it and plan to do more before the day cycle ends) but I wanted to mention a few things as well. I’m a bit confused as to why he’s the veteran (other than redtooth) receiving most of the scum-focus in the game so far. I don’t think his posting habits have been drastically different from other players in this game, and I find it interesting that he’s been jumped on so quickly. Jaminz made some long, detailed, well researched, pro town posts, yet kita ignored them in his analysis. And then he uses this post as part of his argument + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 12:41 jaminz wrote: Aaaand fuck. I was completely wrong on my analysis of KillerSOS Kita said this post just screams of his guilt but kita is an experienced player he should know that that is a complete non tell. Kita only brought it up because his analysis was weak and he needed something else to smear jaminz with. Kita calls jaminz the godfather even though he knows that more often than not the godfather is an experienced player. He did this so that people wouldn't look closely at the experienced players, like himself, and to try and divert attention from the voting list on cth. Chaoser and sandroba had said we could probably find almost if not all the mafia out of the people who voted for cth. So to try and divert the town from looking closely at the list he creates a distraction and comes up with the ridiculous claim that jaminz is gf. And look at the timing where kita calls out jaminz and ilj. He posts his analysis when everyone is debating between EM and sinani. He did this to try and confuse the town and possibly save sinani. Sandroba even calls him out on it. On May 11 2011 21:48 sandroba wrote: Sorry for the quadruple post but I need further explanation on this. @Kitaman27 So you are saying ilovejonn is scum. I'm sure you realize that if we catch mafia today, mafia are reduce to 1 kp. Explain to me how it is possible for EM to be scum in the scenario where ilovejonn is scum. Also your analysis on jaminz is complete bullshit. It's a common tactic for mafia to introduce more candidates for a lynch, to confuse town. Right now my prime godfather suspect is you. 5) My final point is probably the most important. Throughout the game people have thought kita's posts were pro town. But actually read his posts with this question in mind, does kita actually care if the town wins? The answer is no. Look through kita's posts does he actually push hard for the people he thinks are the scummiest? After his initial analysis of jaminz kita just stops discussing him. Plenty of other people begin doing analysis on jaminz and discussing his posts yet kita barely comments on it. During night 5 I offered to switch last minute to impervious (the original person kita voted for and the one he claimed was most scummy) yet he doesn't try and convince me or anyone else to switch. Before kita votes he will post a small explanation for his vote but then never actively pushes for who he thinks is the scummiest. Because he knew that we were debating between lynching townies and so he wanted to distance himself and not stand out. In fact the last few days where we have only been discussing lynching townies you will see kita hardly discusses anything. And ask yourself has kita really defended anyone this entire game? The previous night he throws up 1 quote in a small defense of AO. But while we are discussing it does kita actually try and save AO at all? The answer is no. And can you find any other instances this game where he has taken a strong stance and actually tried to save someone? Look through his posts in mafia XXXVIII where he was town. Kita was one of the best players that game, constantly taking hard stands and fighting for the people he thought were scummy and trying to save those he thought were town. Kita this game is playing completely different, he is basically active lurking. He has not been arguing for who he thinks is scummiest nor tried to save innocents the entire game. He doesn't care about whether the town wins or not. Jaminz also noticed it and tells us this in his last post. On May 21 2011 10:28 jaminz wrote: I think kitaman is suspicious/scum. He's been pretty actively pushing for me this entire game (which is fine), but his play has been very different than how I've seen him play in other games. He's done a great job of toeing the line between lurking and providing just enough analysis to keep suspicion off of himself. He's also a veteran player, making him a decent candidate for godfather. So look at how weak kitas analysis of jaminz was, look at how he tried to divert attention away from the fact that he was on the wrong side of the most important lynch this game, and look at how kita hasn't actually cared about town winning all game. Kitaman27 is 100% without a doubt the Godfather. | ||
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You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched. This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. | ||
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I was somewhat worried you could have been the other mafia but I don't think mafia would give this lynch up so easily when they could clinch the game if we mislynch. So if you side with me and vote kita I think there is virtually no chance that you and kita could both be mafia. | ||
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On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote: There is this just before Xedat's death though... Which part of that post worries you? | ||
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For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now. | ||
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But I probably was a little eager to clear db right away,there is no reason for us to try and rush into who should be lynched after kita right now. We should focus on this lynch make sure we don't fuck it up and then really look at all the information we have before we decide the final lynch. | ||
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One of the most reliable scum tells is when someone is usually uncertain with their decisions except when attacking other mafia after they already look caught. Mafia don't want to gun super hard for townies because they are afraid of the rebound and so they don't take strong stands. But they don't have the same problem when dealing with mafia. You have no problem instantly accepting that kita is mafia after my post and you attacked sinani very fast but when faced with townies you seem to be overwhelmed and not have much of an opinion. I won't claim 100% that you are mafia just yet but I am definitely more suspicious of you atm. I am interested to hear jonn's thoughts because assuming kita is mafia I think he is pretty much 100% cleared. | ||
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1. 2 of jaminz long posts were before before you wrote up your analysis calling him the gf, yet you don't seem to take them into consideration. 2. I agree I didn't look closely enough at jaminz before I voted for him but I was convinced by the fact that he had been the last person to vote twice in lynches that killed town. 3. You still haven't addressed the fact that you used that one completely non scum tell post by jaminz as a big part of your analysis against him. I expect a lot better from a veteran player than to make 3 major points and have one of them be a completely false supposed scum tell. 4. You are once again completely wrong about jaminz metagame. He was active for 1 day in a newbie mini mafia game. Do you not see how incredibly different that is compared to being active for multiple days in a row in a 30 man game with vets? And why exactly couldn't jaminz have been blue? You declared after 1 day that he was a lurking mafia when he could have easily been a lurking blue according to you. 5. The dt check of AO. I am like 90% sure that forumite did not DT check AO. Did you read the post where I gave my reasoning for this? Throughout this game there are a lot of times where you seem to skip over points that don't quite coincide with your plans instead of addressing them. You didn't even address iljs argument about the sinani coached post as well. Instead you attacked a couple of minor trivial points he made. 6. And like I tried to make as clear as possible I am not just bashing you for being wrong I am bashing you for not trying to actually win. Show me examples of you pushing hard for a lynch or pushing hard to defend someone. Or more importantly actually discussing relevant points with people to make the correct decisions. This game you post your analysis then pretty much sit back and let the rest of the town do all the real discussion. In the previous game you were wrong several times but you were actively discussing and trying to make sure the town got the right lynch. Can you show me anywhere in the game you actually tried to defend someone? While everyone else seemed content to sit back and just hope they survived (yourself included) I put like 4 hours into my researching my post against you. I seem to be the only person left that really cares about making the correct decision and winning. I am kind of rambling here but I guess my point is yes I am town and right now I am voting for you. If I am wrong the other 2 mafia will also vote you and the town will lose. So you need to convince me to change my vote and so far you haven't given me anything that out weighs all the points I have against you. Show me clearly why I can trust you are town and show me clearly who the other mafia are. | ||
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Lets look at jaminz posts from mafia XXXVIII on day 1. + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2011 13:32 jaminz wrote: I realize I've been inactive for pretty much the entire game so far, and I don't really have a great excuse other than that I've been a bit busy lately. However, I'm working my way through the thread right now, and plan to be completely caught up by the end of the night. I've only played one game of Mafia before (Haunted Mafia this past Halloween - put on by Doctor H), so I'm still fairly new to the game, but I'm doing what I can to take everything in. Thanks in advance for everyone being patient with me. + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2011 13:39 jaminz wrote: I'll be completely honest about that one, and you can ridicule me all you want for it: I was nervous that I'd be modkilled for not voting, and wanted to make sure I had a vote in before things got too out of hand so I voted for Dr. H. I know he knows how to play the game, and my gut said he was the one to pick. I guess those 2 posts were all you needed to determine he was a lurking blue that game instead of a lurking mafia? Here is his one and only post from day 2 + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2011 11:55 jaminz wrote: Man, this game is pretty intense. I'm having a bit of trouble keeping up, but I'm working on it. It seems like Bumatlarge, DoctorH, and GMarshal have all had a lot of analysis done on them so far, so I'll try to look at a few of the other players and post whatever analysis I can. I gotta say pretty impressive that you knew he was a lurking blue from just those posts. And you say that blues and reds lurk but so do disinterested/busy/overwhelmed townies. In fact those are probably the most common type of lurkers, especially in big games filled with new players. I don't think I am buying your story about knowing that jaminz was a lurking blue from day1. It feels more likely to me you just made that up to try and give your argument credit. Which is just another thing that makes you look scummy in my eyes. | ||
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I was wrong about the jaminz lynch but I used the information of him being the last voter twice before pushing for his lynch. You were pushing for him from the very beginning using just faulty analysis (especially the ridiculous argument about his post concerning killers death). I am not punishing you for voting for sinani. You are misinterpreting my argument. I was arguing that you should get no town credit for that vote. Which makes perfectly logical sense given the points I mentioned. For impervious yea you asked is anyone willing to switch and reposted your analysis but do you really think that counts as pushing your lynch? You don't add anything to your analysis even though impervious had posted like 10 times since you did the analysis. You don't discuss why he is more scummy than any of the other candidates you only posted your limited (like 4 lines) thoughts on impervious. In fact you don't even mention redtooth or orgolove and why they are worse people to lynch at all. Oh also after impervious comes back and votes for himself you conveniently stop posting and giving your thoughts completely. Disappearing during the most crucial times of a big lynch, solid play when you are by far the most experienced/best player left and should be leading the town. I agree the vig call makes you look slightly better but it is literally pretty much the only pro town thing I could find of yours this entire game. I know you are gonna give various reasons for why your bad play should be excused but it just seems so strange to me that you have played so much worse and consistently lead the town in the wrong direction this game when compared to last. | ||
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On May 29 2011 00:50 kitaman27 wrote: This shows how much you are tunneling. You are unwilling to listen to reason and seem to think anything I say is scummy. I did indeed know jaminz was blue because I was the watcher. We watched the same target on night one. If fact, I knew you were blue day one as well since all three of us visited bum. That is why I subtly defend him in that game when people wanted to have him lynched. Ah k yea I retract my point about that then. I thought you were implying you could tell from his posts right away he was blue. Why do you disagree with the fact that I don't think forumite checked AO. Forumite defended AO on day 1 saying he wasn't scummy. Why exactly would forumite check someone he doesn't feel is scum, instead of people he was voting for or suspicious of? Also later on he twice randomly lists chaos as green for no reason. I see absolutely no reason he wouldn't have listed both AO and chaos if he had actually checked him. And my point is you didn't really defend him. You brought up the check but did you really argue for it? You are arguing now 50000x harder than you have all game. If you are mafia you want AO lynched so you soft defended him to buy yourself a bit of credit but you still want him lynched so that you can use ilj as your target for the next day. Mafia does not want to just reach lylo no matter what, they want to reach lylo with people they think are lynchable. If you had put 1/10th of the effort you are using now to actually defend someone this game your arguments would be a lot more believable to me. And you dismiss the sinani coached post as just wifom really? How about the fact that mafia kp was on the line? How about the fact that they chose the easiest and most obvious target (ilj). How about the fact it almost worked and 4 people insta voted for ilj after it. If they were just trying to buy town cred they could have had sinani make his usual shitty analysis instead of coaching him to write an actual convincing argument and risk lynching jonn. Instead of just offhandedly dismissing my points as wifom why not actually look at all the evidence surrounding it. You keep saying I am mindlessly tunneling you but I am looking at all the points you make then researching them and building an actual case. | ||
Mig
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On May 29 2011 00:48 ilovejonn wrote: You guys realize this is lylo right? Seeing 3 votes out of 5 on kitaman27 already before the first half of the day is very suspicious to me. One of Mig, elmizzt, Dropbear, has to be mafia. I'm willing to bank on elmizzt being the second mafia but we have to leave that discussion to another day like DB said. Way to go out on a limb jonn lol. Obviously if you are town and 3 people have voted already at least one of them must be mafia. | ||
Mig
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I think we can pretty safely say that there is pretty much a 0% chance that both jonn and kita are the 2 last mafia members. I also think it is extremely unlikely that both db and elmizzit are mafia. If they were I am not sure they are savvy enough to attack each other after I accused kita today although there could be some small chance that they are the 2 remaining mafia. So that leaves us with these possible mafia combinations ILJ/elmizzit ILJ/dropbear kita/elmizzit kita/dropbear Since kita and ILJ are the pair we can be most certain of not being both mafia we should focus on lynching between those 2. That way we will have a confirmed townie in the final 3. I know this is common sense but I figured I would post it just to try and keep us from getting side tracked. | ||
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Once again you don't actually address my points for why AO wasn't checked by forumite. Can you give me some logic for why you think forumite checked AO and what day you think he did it? Dts can post their opinions of people even if they haven't checked them you know. And lol did you really think you were adding another confirmed townie? Your posts certainly didn't show it. Your first post that day you mention that there was also a chance that AO was the gf so the check could mean nothing. Your 2nd post you say that AO and ilj are both being silent and one of them should be lynched that day. I mean come on did you really believe that AO was town? If you did why did you not try in any way whatsoever, other than quoting one post by forumite, to save him???? We had 2 full days with nothing else to do and you let the town lynch someone you thought was a checked townie with no protest. I mean come on. And wtf once again you don't address the sinani coached post points. Instead you again try and attack some smaller irrelevant point. I am looking for some logic behind these decisions kita. I don't believe mafia are just randomly doing things. They obviously put some thought into it before they coached sinani so tell me what exactly was the mafia logic behind doing it considering the points I brought up about. Does it really make more logical sense that mafia was bussing instead of really trying to save sinani? And no I am not contradicting myself because I already explained why you probably felt you had to take the calculated risk to vote sinani on day 3. I know you said the lynch was still close so you should get points. Day 4 pretty much everyone voted sinani once again means totally nothing. You quoted all the analysis you have done all game and claim you have pushed your targets. No you haven't. You can't even come close to arguing that you have. Everyone posts their thoughts before they vote, it is pretty much required if you don't want the entire town to endless hound you. Just posting some limited analysis is not pushing your targets. Actually debating with people and telling them why they are wrong about their lynch targets and you are right and why your lynch is a better choice is pushing your target. And can you explain why you haven't defended a single person this entire game, other than quoting one post from forumite? Can you explain why you didn't try to actively keep any innocents from being lynched? So basically throughout this entire game the only things I can give you any town points for are 1) calling for vig shot on day 2) GGQ calling you a lurker-but obviously this is a minor point 3) you attempt slightly to defend AO but then you ruin it by not bothering to defend him whatsoever the following day. 4) you voted sinani but on day 3, I am willing to give a small amount of credit here but I explained why people can't just assume this clears you. So after playing for 9 days kita there is 1 clearly pro town thing you did then 3 things which are mildly pro town. From my perspective it looks like you pretty much just actively lurked this whole game without contributing anywhere close to your normal level. I understand maybe you are getting frustrated because I seem to just dismiss anything you would view as pro town but I give logical reasoning behind all my points. So instead of attacking irrelevant details give me some logical answers to my questions. Tell my why you think forumite checked AO. Tell me why you think it is more likely the mafia bussed ilj instead of really tried to save sinani. Tell me why you didn't really try to save AO at all. I need some logical responses to believe you here. Also you still haven't posted a decent argument against ILJ. You just quoted your analysis from day 3. Can you give an up to date analysis for why he should be lynched over you? And jonn you said it was good that this was saturday and sunday so I assume that meant you are going to be active. So come on you gotta give me something here. You have made no real analysis and have just taken a completely obvious and pointless stance that we need to be careful because it is lylo. So ask kita some questions, give specific examples of how kita is suspicious, defend yourself from his accusations. You gotta help out. Me and kita are the only 2 trying here. | ||
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Forumite only posted that AO was pro town early on, which was the only time he was really active. I already mentioned this since forumite defended him on day 1 he defended him for the same reason later on. Hm your answer to my questions about why they would bus jonn instead of actually try and divert the lynch are meh. This is an important point for me, because it is a big reason I think ilj is prob town. With all the factors considered during that day I really feel like it was more likely for mafia to try and actually save sinani and just not bus one of their own. And if they did decide to bus I am not sure why they would have done it the way they did. But you have answered the question so I won't ask it again. That's fine we still have over a day left. As long as you get up the analysis with enough time for us to debate it should be fine. Well I am definitely uneasy about none of the other town helping. But we have a day left so hopefully the others can step it up a bit before the final decision is made. But something we should consider is I think it is pretty unlikely that elmizzit is mafia while you are town. Elmizzit I feel panicked and threw you under the bus to try and save himself after he decided I had you pegged with my analysis. If he/ilj were actually the remaining mafia it seems more likely to me that elmizzit would just continue his lurking ways and not really post much in the hopes that we lynch you and the game is over. He seems to only post really long posts when he feels threatened so either he felt threatened because ilj/db are the last 2 mafia or he thought you were screwed for sure and he was trying to save himself. Obviously I can't know this for sure but we do know for sure that elmizzit likes to lurk and seem confused when we are lynching townies and he had no problem insta jumping on the attack of mafia sinani. I don't think he has the skill on his own to attack db just to confuse town if him/ilj were both mafia, his natural instinct would have been to continue his lurking ways. I would like to hear your thoughts on this and if you think I am wrong tell me why. | ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
But yea jonn you have to actually post some content. You have been mostly silent this game now is a time you need to step up and try to put as much information out there as you can. Because the real decision today is between you and kita. And so far kita has posted like 50 times and you have posted only a couple. | ||
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2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this. | ||
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But yea that is fine that is what I wanted to know. | ||
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On May 29 2011 14:56 DropBear wrote: This game needs moar roleclaims I am vanilla but what else do you expect people to claim right now lol. I can't really see anyone claiming differently at this point. | ||
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So we gotta decide between ilj and kita. | ||
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And you will notice I mentioned this fact last page and asked kita's opinion of it and he didn't respond. While asking kita all these questions over and over again anytime I ask him a tough question that he doesn't have a good town answer for he just skips it. I have actually been somewhat worried this whole time that possibly you/ilj are the mafia and I considered trying to lie and say I wanted to kill ilj just to see if you would follow along. But then I am like well if db is town and I lie to him he might suddenly freak out and stop trusting me. But luckily when I asked you who you wanted to kill you have been pretty indecisive and even seriously suggested we kill elmizzit instead of going the easier route of killing kita. So that combined with my original town read of you has renewed my trust. So unless kita says something that really shifts my opinion tomorrow then I am pretty set on going for him. | ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
On May 29 2011 16:02 DropBear wrote: We have to make the hard decision at some point anyway. Lets clean out the trash first. What does ilj think about elmizzt? You haven't talked about him at all, just defended yourself. Ilj has said he thinks elmizzt is definitely scum. But yea we have to make the hard decision at some point so we should do it sooner rather than later while we are both still alive. | ||
Mig
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And like you mentioned on this same page ilj's play this game has been consistent with his play in previous games right? Where as kita's play is different than his play in XXXVIII. | ||
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I don't want to kill elmizzit then get killed during the night and not get a vote in the most important lynch of the game. So I am going to vote for either kita or ilj today and like 95% I am leaving my vote on kita. | ||
Mig
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Also if you end up being town I am going to hate you forever. | ||
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On May 29 2011 20:55 DropBear wrote: At this point, everyone thinks elmizzt is mafia yes? We aren't sure about the others. Why not just kill the one everyone thinks is mafia? We can handle the last day and you never know what info can come up if we go another day. We either take a punt on the potential gf now and have a 50/50 chance of losing today, or we kill elmizzt and go in with the same odds tomorrow with slightly more information. I don't see the point of risking everything on who the second Mafia is when we can get someone pretty much guaranteed today. We are going to have a 50/50 shot at hitting the gf regardless of what day we try and kill them on. We will only get a tiny amount of extra information on who is night killed but we will pretty much be in the same position we are now. If I knew for sure that mafia would kill you during the night instead of me I would have 0 problem voting elmizzt. But I have no intention of being dead for the most important decision of the game. Even if I make the wrong decision today I want the ability to at least make it. So I will not be voting elmizzt today, I will vote either kita or ilj. | ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
I agree that there is a very high chance that elmizzt is scummy but I don't want to deal with him atm I want to decide between you and jonn. I have read through all of your posts and jonn's posts like 5 times each. And what has really decided me about jonn is just the whole part where he gave up and then sinani pulled out the coach post. I agree with your point that often times when under heavy pressure the scum players can pull out the ok I give up lynch me trick but usually they only do it when they are either A) trying to push some goal of theirs or B) they are under very heavy pressure but there was no real pressure under jonn when he did it. There were like 4 votes on sinani then jonn comes in and basically goes I am worthless I will go with the town and vote sinani. Then db makes a post and goes ok we should all switch our votes to jonn and 3 minutes later jonn goes yep you are right everyone should vote for me and then votes for himself. Considering how quickly it all came down this seemed like either he and db would have to be working together or it was just spontaneous on jonn's part. So then shortly after, jonn goes ok you guys are right I won't just give up and then targets orgolove saying he is the scummiest. And then a few hours after that sinani comes out with his coached post to try and get jonn lynched/save himself. The whole thing just seems so so strange to me. Like what was the scum's plan here, have jonn martyr himself even though 95% of the town was focused on sinani and then right after have him change his mind and coach sinani to try and bus him all to buy jonn town credit? And this insane master plan was completely put together by jonn, sinani, elmizzt? I mean maybe if like ace was on the mafia team but we aren't exactly looking at a group of mafia all-stars here. So I think jonn was demoralized by being completely wrong all game long, especially having his long analysis on EM end up being just completely worthless. He was really ready to die. Mafia saw this and they knew jonn would be their best shot at diverting the lynch, so they wrote up sinani's long coached post and tried to save him and keep their kp. If this was really some complex plan by the mafia to try and buy jonn super town cred then I will just say hats off to them because they have completely fooled me. After spending hours and hours looking through posts and thinking on this my mind is pretty much made up. I don't think there is anything you can say to change my opinion but I guess if you come up with a plausible story for how the whole jonn trying to die/sinani bus thing was actually a giant mafia plan then I would be willing to listen. | ||
Mig
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I have been reading pypi while it was going on. And GMarshal did try to martyr himself but it was clear right away he had a goal. He was saying either kill me now to remove suspicion or follow my plan until the end. He was giving people an ultimatum to further his objectives. Jonn was just like fuck it I am terrible everyone kill me here I will even vote for myself. I just don't see the mafia motive behind it other than trying to gain town cred, but in that scenario the mafia were already going to give him town cred by bussing him with sinani. So if all my analysis is wrong and I have just been completely fooled and I am killing the wrong person kita then I am sorry. I will try and figure out where I fucked up and went wrong to improve for the future. But right now everything tells me to kill you. | ||
Mig
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Fun game though. And yea don't feel bad db kita/ilj did a really good job I think we woulda still lost even if we lynched kita tonight. | ||
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Also please for the love of god if you are town defend yourself. Do not just disappear and do not vote for yourself. | ||
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Also my early game is very weak but as I gain experience I should improve on that. | ||
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05-14-2011 01:30 AM ET (US) woah.. i said vote me not convince the whole town to jump on me... but if you wanna bus me its alright. haha this is from the mafia quick topic this is pretty funny no wonder it didn't make sense lol edit: jonn was talking to sinani about his long post attacking him. | ||
Mig
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Nice job forumite you checked 4 mafia out of your 6 picks and correctly called chaos and AO as town. If chaos had ended up being mafia we never would have lynched him with everyone so certain about him being checked. | ||
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I want to give a big thanks to Ver. I was suspicious of kita for several days but after I posted my suspicions he shot me down without a huge amount of trouble. I pmd asking for advice and Ver gave me a list of things I should think about while looking through kita's posts. One of the things that really stuck with me was to ask whether kita really cared about the town winning. After that I was able to write a much more convincing post attacking him. Obvious Town MVP goes to chaoser for being such a monster Scum MVP goes to kita for appearing pro town to most people until the end and even when you were under suspicion you did a really great job attacking jonn so nobody suspected you could be together. | ||
Mig
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On May 30 2011 12:27 sandroba wrote: yeah, kita was gf... I had him for gf on day3 and mig only read my posts on lylo =( Maybe if you hadn't told us that impervious was 100% scum we woulda read back through your posts more carefully :p | ||
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On May 30 2011 21:35 Impervious wrote: I'll say it for him. There was a reason I sacked myself for him..... But, nooooo, you guys go and lynch him afterwards anyways..... He was dt checked and came back red what did you expect the town to do? And sacrificing yourself was really a very very bad idea. You should never ever sacrifice yourself when you know you are a townie for someone you can't be sure of. There will always be some chance that you are wrong but you know 100% what your alignment is. And what is worse is that you sacrificed yourself for ogolove who was worse than useless. He refused to do any analysis whatsoever other than his vote list which proved to garbage. So for like the last 3-4 days he was alive he would just come in post about how bad the town was and disappear. And yet you said he was more useful to the town than you? I think you just kind of panicked when you came back late and saw some people wanted to kill you and when you are being bashed as a townie part of your natural desire is to die to prove that you're right. | ||
Mig
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On May 30 2011 22:56 chaoser wrote: No one fucking questioned the fact that kita, who is a veteran player, was somehow alive on Day like 8 or something and that as soon as the ranks started thinning out he ramped up his activity like woah? Come on...Also Ilovejohn's post about how my post cleared him so "if chaoser says I'm green then I have to be" was scummy as fuck...wtf. I gave you guys three scum off a fake DT claim no less and you guys throw the game away. Town was horrible this game. You only lynched a mafia cause I fake claimed DT. Well I brought up that exact point about kita but didn't follow through with it. But he never ramped up his activity he pretty much active lurked through the whole game. He only really went crazy with posting once it hit lylo. Which should have been an even bigger warning sign. I just didn't trust myself enough to push hard for his lynch before lylo and I deserve a big share of the blame for the town's loss because of that. I mean obviously the town failed super hard. But once you died we had redtooth/orgolove who were both worse than useless then an entire town full of 1st and 2nd time players vs kita/ilj so I don't think it should be that big of a surprise that we failed. Next time you are in a game with such a large amount of inexperienced players you should keep yourself alive longer to lead :p | ||
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