TL Mafia XLIV
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Going to start the count because I know it's coming: # people who accuse me of defending my scumbuddy: 0 | ||
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On August 20 2011 11:11 Palmar wrote: Anyone who thinks I'm promoting pro-mafia atmosphere needs to have his head checked. I took this thread and turned it from discussing vague plans and policies to a full-out scumhunting festival. Or they could just read my post. But nevermind that YOURE OBV MAFIA | ||
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WAIT FOUND SOMETHING On August 20 2011 08:03 Mig wrote: Sevryn is by far the scummiest. His vote on DB had a ridiculously scummy reason behind it. After he got called out on it he back peddles and claims it was just a pressure vote. And he says he didn't see anything scummy about DB and his only reason for pressure voting was again because of something palmar did it swedish mafia. And then he says he took the vote off not really because he thought db was innocent but he didn't want to get lynched for bandwagoning lol. Sevryn is just lol scum. No way I'm going to let you get away with that unnoticed. ##Vote Mig | ||
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And the other games I've played with Mig he's been town, and I definitely don't ever remember him ever making a post with this kind of attitude. | ||
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On August 20 2011 11:46 wherebugsgo wrote: Foolish can you tell us precisely why you don't suspect Sevryn? You said that you need to hear more from him, when his first post itself was easily more scummy than Mig's, let alone those that followed. So why does one post of Mig's stick out to you, but one post of Sevryn's isn't enough? Sevryn at least came back to explain himself. Yes his first vote post was a little strange but he said it was just to pressure. Also he confirmed Palmar's attitude is the same as Swedish mafia when he (Palmar) was town. I can confirm Palmar is not acting like he is when he is mafia. That's two people using past behavior to confirm Palmar as innocent. Sevryn also pointed out a ninja vote, that's a plus in my book but I can understand if you think it doesn't say one way or another. You can easily wait a day with him. If he goes mia and refuses to post unless asked then kill him tomorrow. If he willingly posts on his own and is somewhat active then let him be. On August 20 2011 11:57 Pyo wrote: Well if you go back a little further to SNMMV, (where he was mafia), you'll see him playing like he is in this game. I'm not saying that he's mafia this game, but basing scum reads solely off of previous games is NOT a reliable way to go. No. Here are some of his posts from that game: + Show Spoiler + On July 22 2011 18:34 Palmar wrote: lol, I can see why people say you're good Ace, you somehow convinced half the thread that a random lynch on day 1 is a good idea? Like, I've played 8 mafia games, 5 of them we've lynched scum or 3rd party on day 1. That's far higher than 25%. Is this just some clever ploy to start a discussion or try to figure out who is going to be the scummy white knight who trashes your plan? btw, Killing ace day1 is stupid, just lynch him day 2 because the mafia will shoot him if he's not part of their team. On July 22 2011 21:26 Palmar wrote: your mother. But it's still interesting. Ace proposes terrible plan, Jacinto and VE don't like it, DragonReborn actually likes it. Like.. would scum actually take the chance? The lynch isn't really 25% chance because the mafia can co-ordinate their votes, if they so please, so I think what DragonReborn did was stupid, but probably not scummy. On July 23 2011 03:15 Palmar wrote: Ace's argument is basically revolved around this sentence. This is brilliant, from this sentence, Ace pulls two things that simply aren't true. point a) he says I claim to speak for town. This is incorrect, I say this in a general way "Looking at any given mafia game from the perspective of the town players" would've been more accurate, but I assumed that people wouldn't try to twist things that aren't there. and point b) he says that I'm throwing around false facts, again, just not true. If people actually bother to read the sentence, you can see I specifically say "and judging by the 8 games that I have played". Any statistician will tell you the sample size is too small to really mean anything, but it's all I have, so I throw it out there. Feel free to provide more statistics. So, Ace is being guilty of exactly the thing that he has accused me of, namely putting words in people's mouth. Sure, I felt after initially reading the thread that there was more support for the RL plan than there actually was. And I wrote the post on DR without actually checking if he had explicitly suggested we RL, while in truth he had simply said he'd be fine with it. Now, that this is out of the way, I really want people to take a look at the list that DR posted, it really, really is something that strikes me as very odd. And yes town, this is Ace leading a bad lynch, I'm not still sure if it's because he is scum and this is the best thing he could come up with, or if it's because he simply didn't read/understand my posts. There is a deliberate attempt by him to contribute something. Sometimes he succeeds, other times you can see the mafia in him. That's what I noticed in his other games as mafia; he makes paragraphs in his post to try to blend in. This game there aren't any paragraphs of trying to blend in, just "let's kill this guy". Yes, I agree that his town contribution is lacking at this point, but he isn't making an attempt to hide himself as almost all mafia do. I've nailed tons of mafia based on past behavior. You shouldn't say it's unreliable. I agree it on its own isn't sufficient, but it's an incredibly powerful tool. I'm not voting for Palmar anytime soon. | ||
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On August 20 2011 15:14 Mig wrote: You are really stretching on a couple points to make me appear scummy foolish. Your meta argument is null at best, you say I don't post with attitude as town yet you provide no examples of me doing it as mafia. My post wasn't a text wall or gibberish I concisely summed up sevryn's scummy actions in a few lines. Your point about me not adding anything new is accurate but I would rather state what convinced me of sevryn being scum than vote and give no reasons. Your defense of Sevryn is extremely suspect. Your reasons for defending him are he pointed out a stealth vote and he came back to defend himself? Really did you read his defense? He came back posted 4 lines in which he said A) he sheeped palmar to pressure vote someone he didn't find scummy and B) he took his vote off because he was afraid people would lynch him for it. What type of player is more likely to vote for someone they think is innocent and then immediately backtrack once people call them out because they don't want to be lynched, town or mafia? Yet somehow that defense was good enough to alleviate your suspicions...... Sevryn is still by far the best lynch today. It's more about opportunity cost at this point. If Sevryn is mafia we can expect him to be inactive the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow if we leave him alone. If he's town he will be active and posting his own thoughts. Half way through tomorrow it should be immediately clear what his role is. You on the other hand I'm not so sure of. | ||
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On August 20 2011 16:07 Mig wrote: Ah so it's just that easy if sevryn lurks he is mafia but if he is active he is town. Why ignore all the scummy things he has done already? Instead of addressing any of his actions you are instead just defending him with well we can tell whether he is town or not if we let him live awhile. Why does that reasoning not apply to everyone? Because you're a good player? | ||
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You got me bro | ||
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On August 21 2011 05:44 Trotske wrote: Ok guys I'd like to say I think Foolishness is scum (again) here is my original post + Show Spoiler + On August 20 2011 08:40 Trotske wrote: I agree I think Sevryn is looking pretty scummy but I am curious what you guys think about Foolishness this is his one post after the game started. he agree's with dropbears mayor plan which gives one person the power to decide between tow people and chooses someone who hasn't been acting super pro town. This scream scummy to me, inactive and then comes in with a single line to vote on a not very town plan imo. so until he defends himself some more i'm goign to vote sevryn but foolishness needs to post something more or I am going to start pushing for his lynch. QuickSilver7 pointed out how this was scummy of me to say I Think foolishness is scum and then vote for sevryn but the fact is this is a majority lynch system the fact that sevryn looks scummy and has the most votes on him is enough to vote for him unless more people agreed with me but he is the only one who seemed to read my post. The next page after I made my post calling Foolishness inactive he posts quite a few times while not addressing my post at all. Most of his posts are taking a very on the fence position. accusing quite a few people of being scum but yet he's not so sure sevryn is. This feels like he is trying to distance himself from Sevryn. I think foolishness is a great target for the next lynch. There was nothing to respond to from your original post that would have just been fluff and a waste of time for the town. You called me inactive and now I'm here posting. What more do you want? Where are the "quite of a few people of being scum"? I didn't like the Sevryn lynch of any of the other candidates (the bears, Palmar, etc) so I proposed my own lynch because Mig made a bad post. If you can find the post I made I'd appreciate it. Mig accused me of defending Sevryn. You are accusing me of distancing myself from Sevryn. Make up your mind people. I stated my reasons why I don't like the Sevryn lynch by bringing a new perspective to the table. I'd rather lynch Sevryn than nobody of course, but that doesn't mean I'm going to just sit and let it happen. | ||
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On August 21 2011 05:54 xtfftc wrote: Your post was stupid. DropBear's campaign for mayor is something worth analysing but it's not like it was going to happen, ever. Foolishness was simply acting funny. If you want to go against Foolishness, don't base your post around such a worthless argument. Also, Supersoft, after crying out about how I was avoiding casting my vote for Sevryn, we are facing the possibility of a non-linch due to you (and Jackal) unvoting. I actually thought DropBear's mayor thing was a good idea. | ||
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On August 21 2011 06:02 RayzorFlash wrote: Sure, I'll gladly take the fall if Sev proves to be green, but I don't think there was anything scummy at all about my post. I think it would be good leads to go after anyone aggressively pushing for Sev if he's green, and I know i'm included in that list :S. Does anyone think a scum would say such a thing? Especially considering he said this when everyone was voting for Sevryn? | ||
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On August 21 2011 10:28 hiro protagonist wrote: Foolishness, keep talking about Rayzor, but what do you think of Sev? do you think he is the best lynch today? I don't really like either of them. I thought Rayzor was blue all of today, but I don't think he is anymore. It's easy to hold Sev accountable if we don't lynch him. If he's the slightest bit inactive in the following day(s) we kill him. | ||
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On August 21 2011 10:52 Sevryn wrote: Alright everyone thanks for trying go ahead and vote for me again please look at people who were not here because mafia most likely just sat back and hoped i would get lynched. Needs to be resaid | ||
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I also took a hit last night. | ||
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On August 22 2011 11:10 Jackal58 wrote: I'm not sure I'm buying what you're selling. Chaplain (Veteran) - as a consecrated priest and spiritual minister you are especially well equipped to handle the attacks of the unholy cultists, your time as a chaplain in the Liquidian militia doesn’t hurt a bit either . You have an extra night life which can absorb a single KP. You will be notified if it is expended, a roleblock divests you of your extra life. I know...you could not believe how much my eyes widen when I got notified. | ||
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Why don't you roleclaim? | ||
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On August 22 2011 11:49 hiro protagonist wrote: If your town and you took a hit, you NEED to come forward about it. If this does not happen, then lets not discuss foolishness's claim because its all WIFOM otherwise. whats either chaoser of brownbear? The head of the mafia. Those are the only 2 people who would roleblock me and hit me at once. Both have been around long enough to know that I'm a threat. chaoser was mafia in XXXVII where myself and Ver (ser aspi) nailed a bunch of mafia. BrownBear was mafia in XX (might have the number wrong) where he hit me night 1 and I was a veteran. I nailed a few of his members that game. Secondary people it could be are Jackal or DropBear. As of now I think Jackal is town and I don't think DropBear would do it. | ||
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On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him. It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets? Not really. Look at the player list. Who do you think would roleblock and hit me in the same night? | ||
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On August 22 2011 12:35 BrownBear wrote: Not me. If I were playing mafia, I'd roleblock and doublestack you to ensure you died night 1. You're far too dangerous to a red team left alive. hmmm...I wonder... | ||
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On August 22 2011 12:52 wherebugsgo wrote: Foolish you were saved? Unless you can think of another way I could have possibly taken a hit then yes. | ||
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On August 22 2011 13:00 wherebugsgo wrote: Why didn't you mention that in the first place? You said you took a hit and a roleblock. Obviously before I asked the question about the chaplain it was unclear to some of us whether or not it would've been possible for you to live without a save from someone else. Someone else asked if you were claiming chaplain earlier (sorry, on phone ATM so it's hard for me to go back while posting) Why should I claim anything about my role? I took a hit and got roleblocked last night. If you assume I'm telling the truth then there's only one explanation for how this happened. | ||
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##Vote Mig | ||
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On August 23 2011 05:27 VisceraEyes wrote: Foolish, I'm concerned about your vote here. If you're not sure what to make of a night's events, why in the hell would you vote for someone that is in your opinion involved? I reread Mig's posts (like you, it was short reading) and he hasn't done anything overtly scummy so far...there are a LOT of scummy targets out here, why Mig? Everyone is voting based on YOUR logic, I'd like you to state ALL of the reasons you think Mig is the best lynch if you please. On the contrary, chaoser's the one that found the contradiction. I started the campaign against Mig yesterday, and chaoser was the only one who also voted for him on day 1 (and one of the few to actually comment about it). It only makes sense that we continue the campaign today since Mig hasn't done much to prove himself an ally to the town. And I am building a good case against him; you can expect more later in the day. | ||
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On August 23 2011 06:14 Jackal58 wrote: Dammit. Why did you slam a vote onto Sevryn when it was obvious there was a very good possibility the vote may have been shifted off of a person that appeared to be a townie getting mislynched? Don't forget that Mig did this as well. Let's say Rayzor is mafia. Does it make sense for one of Mig or Vain to be mafia? Yes because their votes ensured that the vote switch wouldn't happen. Does it make sense for both of them to be mafia? No because mafia wouldn't out two of their members just like that. You obviously know who I think is mafia. Vain's posting may not be the most optimal, but he writes stuff like this: On August 23 2011 04:22 Vain wrote: wtf, you prefer me but lets just go for xtffc. Sounds logic. Now when its not xtffc you can always say"oh jeah i liked vain better" very convenient That's totally a townie talking there. Not afraid to voice his opinion or yell at someone. I'm not totally sold that he's townie, it's just Mig looks a lot better for lynching now. Not to mention if Vain flips green we'll be back at square one. If Mig flips green we can look at who jumped on his case after Chaoser's initial vote today. | ||
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On August 23 2011 06:32 VisceraEyes wrote: hiro is acting like cocky-ass scum this game, and I think he's hiding behind his meta. He doesn't usually play like this when scum (he doesn't often play scum at all actually)...one of his only games I've played with him though he was the lurky lacky of Palmar, in the game he referenced at the BEGINNING of the game, establishing his meta. I don't like it. Hiro takes the lead of second-runner-ups-to-Palmar-on-my-scum-list. Wait a minute, you said that me using meta in my arguments was pointless and (for the most part) rampant speculation. But now you're voting for Hiro based on meta? WHAT IS GOING ON IN THIS WORLD | ||
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On August 23 2011 06:48 Curu wrote: Foolishness is scum because he's not trolling. afk NOBODY CARES | ||
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On August 23 2011 06:58 Curu wrote: Seriously where are you Mig? Yeah I can understand that you're pissed at Personality, I'm pretty put off too, but if you're Town help us win this game. If you're scum, feel free to continue. You were in DrH's experimental game with Mig. Does anything about his behavior this game resemble that game? | ||
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On August 23 2011 08:37 Palmar wrote: I still think we should lynch brownbear. All in due time my friend...all in due time | ||
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On August 23 2011 10:52 Mig wrote: hm no why? Is there a connection I have missed between them? Errr no, it's just because xtfftc seems to be a big candidate for lynch (I'm still not entirely sure how his attitude is scummy) so I thought you would vote for him just in case everyone wanted to kill you. | ||
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On August 23 2011 09:08 VisceraEyes wrote: Foolishness, hiro protagonist, Palmar, xtfftc. BOOM Headshot. Discuss. Heading by the policy known as "VisceraEyes's mafia list is always wrong" we can safely say we have 4 confirmed townies now. | ||
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On August 23 2011 11:45 Curu wrote: Yes. Your post is excellent and needs love, but I still feel more strongly about xtfftc, especially given the timing of the two wagons. Your post did prod me to consider DB in a new light, and I encourage everyone to read the case and do the same, but I'm still leaning harder scum on xtfftc. Hey chaoser, got any RELEVANT things to say? You know, about the people in this game. You still think your vote should lie on Mig? Mig has a blatant contradiction in his posts. I'm sure he's going to requote that in one of his coming posts. xtfftc has no contradictions, and is a very classic example of a "dumb townie" (no offense to him). I do not feel like he is pushing an agenda in any of his posts. Since it's his first mafia game I cannot compare past behavior, but Mig is looking like he was in DrH's game: posting paragraphs trying to blend in. Compare that to XLIII where he was blue, and he was actively calling people out (like JeeJee). Here is one of his defense posts from that game where he was a lynch candidate: On August 03 2011 04:53 Mig wrote: I have a pretty simple defense. People should actually read my posts. Where have I backed down after putting pressure on people? What mafia objectives have I pushed? Look at the questions I asked varp and JeeJee. Was I trying to slander them or cast suspicion on them to look like I was fake contributing? Or was I asking legitimate questions that the town should be asking. The town has almost no activity and I am actively trying to get people to post in IRC. What a scummy thing for me to do! I have pmd half the people in town asking them for their opinions. And I have no problem with giving my opinions on people. No one has to force me to contribute. So just ask yourself if my play is helping the town or helping mafia. If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me. The confident attitude is what struck me most here. He actively challenges the town "What mafia objectives have I pushed?....Or was I asking legitimate questions that the town should be asking". This game that attitude is completely gone. Take a look at part of his defense: On August 23 2011 09:19 Mig wrote: My activity this game has been a lot lower than most of my games. I am really burned out on mafia right now. I have played too many games recently and I am going to take a break after this game. I have to force myself just to actually read the thread. It is no excuse for my poor play but it is the truth. So if I am lynched because of it my apologies for sucking. I remember someone mentioning that 'appealing to emotions' is a mafia tactic. But as a whole his posts lack the confident attitude that we all know from town Mig. I agree that his case against DropBear is good (and DropBear should be looked at carefully after today), but that doesn't mean we should just assume he's innocent. If xtfftc released a good analysis against Pyo we wouldn't just abandon his case and jump ship. Anyone has potential to release a good analysis. The point is that Mig's defense of himself is sloppy and incomplete. Outside of yesterday's vote, he hasn't addressed many of the things chaoser and myself have presented. Why was he so unhelpful yesterday? Why is his attitude changed from his normal townie behavior? Also I attacked him yesterday and got shot. Very frequently mafia flip out if they get attacked day 1 and shoot the attackers. I can list 3 separate games off the top of my head where this happened to me, and I'm sure I can find many more easily. Yes, this piece by itself does not mean Mig is mafia. The problem is that when you look at the big puzzle, all these individual pieces fit together to form the big picture. Mig | ||
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On August 23 2011 12:19 Curu wrote: You got shot N1 in Personality and you weren't doing anything except trolling all day. I really don't like a case built on "I got shot so xxx is Mafia" as this assumes Mafia plays to their absolute dumbest and most predictable. The case against Mig is mostly meta, and he's stepping out of his invisible play. chaoser's accusations read like one big OMGUS, voting Mig on meta reasons too after being accused for meta reasons, you don't think there's some lazy vote parking and contradiction there either? If there's a scum in that pairing I would lean heavily towards chaoser. I don't know what OMGUS means. If you care about the town then type out what you want to say, don't hide behind acronyms. Mostly meta? I accused him of bad posting yesterday. Chaoser found a contradiction today. No meta there. I look at his past games to verify my accusations. So far it's not in his favor. If his attitude this game was like when he was town (XLIII for example) then I would rethink my analysis and would not be pushing him this hard. In response to "you don't think there's some lazy vote parking and contradiction there either?" no I don't. If there is point one out to me. Chaoser found a contradiction in Mig's post. That's pretty good in itself. I bring forth these arguments about "meta" because they serve as further evidence that I'm on the right track. On August 23 2011 12:19 Curu wrote: You got shot N1 in Personality and you weren't doing anything except trolling all day. I really don't like a case built on "I got shot so xxx is Mafia" as this assumes Mafia plays to their absolute dumbest and most predictable. You clearly did not read the last paragraph of my previous post. I'm not building a case on this. I'm not building a case on this. I'm not building a case on this. My case is built upon his contradiction and bad day 1 posting. Everything else I've said only builds on top of that. Look at the big picture. The individual pieces are what make the big picture, and that's where you find the mafia. Examining one individual piece does not find you mafia. For those that are wondering, I think xtfftc is town at the moment. I'm not thoroughly convinced, but the evidence against Mig just fits too well together. | ||
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On August 23 2011 12:29 Mig wrote: I am just stunned that you are trying to lynch based on something that wasn't even a contradiction and ignoring DB's posts which directly contradicted each other. I'm sure chaoser can tell you all about that. He's the one who found it. I already said that your case against DB is nice. I was going to make one tonight as well but you saved me some time. I actually thought you two were both mafia coming into today. | ||
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For reference On August 22 2011 14:02 chaoser wrote: There is only conjecture as to who would hit you and also block you at the same time. This only matters, of course, if you're telling the truth. I've seen mafia claim to be roleblocked when they really haven't been, I really wouldn't put it pass mafia to claim they were also hit, especially if it's you who is claiming to be blocked. I'll have to sleep on this. That being said, mig, I have a question: you said that to foolishness about him using meta to place suspicions against you but then you turn around and post this: and yet have not provided examples of me acting the way I did as mafia. A bit hypocritical don't you think? What's with the flip flopping on stances? On one hand, you don't accept meta when it's against you, but on the other you use it freely against others? And to foolishness, mig seems like the one you are most suspicious of, and yet instead of voting for him and pushing hard, you backed off with a "I wouldn't mind lynching mig" followed by a "rayzorflash is an outstanding issue as well" When I was mafia in XXXVII I basically posted just that about a teammate and this was noted by Ver as something that mafia would do. Why aren't you pushing harder on mig? | ||
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On August 23 2011 12:36 Mig wrote: How about the fact he voted for hiro because he didn't give any reasons behind his vote. Then voted me without listing a single reason and he had said there was no case against me. Are you really arguing that isn't a contradiction. I mean come on. It was 48 hours apart. He voted for you after chaoser wrote his post that I quoted above. There's nothing wrong with that. Chaoser brought new information to the table and DropBear was convinced of it. Jackal never really said anything about you yesterday. Are you going to call him out for voting you today as well? I agree that DropBear is suspicious and has issues, this isn't about him though. | ||
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On August 23 2011 12:41 Mig wrote: Also I did call out jackal wtf? And he gave me his reason asked me a question and I responded. Yes I just reread that now. My mistake. On August 23 2011 12:41 Mig wrote: No but I am saying he voted for hiro because hiro didn't list any reasons. He immediately turns around and votes me listing ZERO reasons. Okay I see that as well. Your post against DB didn't say this though (or at least I got the wrong impression about what you were saying). | ||
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You cannot lynch any person on 1 piece of evidence. Any piece of evidence against someone on it's own is a terrible argument. It's when you find multiple pieces that fit together than you have a mafia. Sevyrn was a good example. Lots of small pieces made him look like mafia. But the pieces didn't quite fit together. | ||
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On August 23 2011 14:14 Mig wrote: Btw foolish if you were mafia who would you have shot last night? Myself/chaoser/palmar/BB all had votes and suspicions placed on them. You were one of the only vets who wasn't suspected. I think you probably take a shot almost every night unless the mafia were afraid of you being protected. And I understand that you are just using being shot as a small part of why I am mafia but the fact that you are using it at all shows how weak your case against me is because realistically there is virtually no connection there. I'm pretty sure one person said something nasty about me. Although I might be confusing whoever it was with chaos13 today. There is a connection; as you said it's a small one. You're not looking at the big picture. I could take one small piece of your argument against DropBear and rip it to shreds if I wanted (I already pointed out one minor detail). As a whole your argument is sound; DropBear has not been posting with the town's interest in mind, he flat out does not seem to care at all, and he's conveniently missing a lot (not just because of time difference either). | ||
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On August 23 2011 14:34 Mig wrote: Right I understand it is just part of your overall case, but my point is I don't really think it even connects me. I mean if you were one of the mafia who would you have shot? I have a hard time believing you wouldn't have shot yourself. So if I take that out completely I am left with just your meta arguments. Which basically consist of me not posting with enough confidence, except for my first attack on sevryn which was too confident? Right now you seem dead set on tunneling me with a much weaker case than the one against dropbear just because you are suspicious of me. If palmar/chaoser had posted against db I think you would be a lot more open to it. No I'm pretty open to it. It's just right now I believe you are the best lynch. The bandwagon on xtfftc is too easy (surely you can admit to that as well). I'm definitely for killing the bear (although you should have chosen the other bear). If you are town I'm a bit confused on why the bandwagon isn't on you. You're a reliable player surely getting you lynched is much preferable over xtfftc (assuming he's town). It's pretty simple, at the beginning of the day all they had to do was post "Foolishness is probably town, we can trust his judgment, Vote Mig". Strangely enough two people did do that, DropBear and Varpulis (the others all are active and/or gave reasoning). Varpulis gave reasoning but it wasn't much. I believe he's town at this point but I could probably be convinced otherwise; his track record isn't the greatest. So why aren't you on the chopping block then? I was hoping to save this information for later but there are a few notable people who have diverted attention away from the accusations against you (both yesterday and today). Surely if the mafia was competent they wouldn't let one of their own get lynched this early in the game. | ||
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On August 24 2011 03:45 Jackal58 wrote: You were uncertain before. Why the change of heart? He's one of the people that has diverted attention away from the case against Mig. | ||
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Finally someone else notices about this guy | ||
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We need to figure out who we're lynching now. You all know what I think, but tossing random votes on DropBear or supersoft is not going to help the town. | ||
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On August 24 2011 04:37 hiro protagonist wrote: No, Mafia would be pleased as punch to let him live out the night. They love the WIFOM that it creates. DropBear is the best lynch right now. His death will shead some light on your alignment, as well as show that Mig might not be to far off of his usually good scumhunting powers. They love having a medic around that's going to make them waste another hit to kill me? I'm not sure I follow | ||
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Mafia very frequently kill those who are suspicious of them day 1. Quicksilver made a solid post against him if I remember correctly. No, before someone chimes in about my first sentence, I'm not basing an accusation of him based off that. Nor am I using that as sufficient proof that hiro is mafia. I'm pointing out the facts. | ||
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On August 24 2011 09:02 Palmar wrote: I do think we have time to push the chaos13 lynch. He's catching up with the others quite fast, and I think he's a better option than all the others. You are providing a huge distraction to the town. You're almost helping the mafia by splitting up the votes like this. I don't care if you don't like the prospects, you spent all day doing nothing about the people who were the top candidates, don't pansy out now. At the time, I didn't like either of the 1st day candidates but I sucked it up and voted rather than push for a last minute switch against my favorite candidate (Mig). I think most everyone agrees that at least one person of the 3 (Mig, hiro, xtfftc) is mafia. To ignore that is asking to get lynched/shot. We have 3 people who we have good analysis for, who have spent time defending themselves. To toss all of that out the window at the last second could not be more anti-town. Not to mention, when either of these flip we have good leads. If Mig is mafia I have an incredible lead on his team (Dropbear confirmed the link between Mig and other players in the game) so I'm not bluffing. People have pointed out the connections between hiro/xtfftc and other players. Where does chaos13 fit in? No where. Take your garbage somewhere else. | ||
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On August 24 2011 09:07 Kurumi wrote: Everyone is able to spit words and say how x done y , I want evidence . Also dont put words in my mouth scum . Why would supersoft and Palmar try so hard to avoid You get lynched , huh ? Sixth sense ? Chaos 13 case is just a lurker lynch . We could lynch lucidity same way . But we are not going to do that , we are lynching scum , not lurkers . As many games have shown , scum rarely lurk hardcore unless they are bad . This needs to be resaid because Kurumi is absolutely right. | ||
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On August 24 2011 09:20 hiro protagonist wrote: this is bad logic. vote for scum. your trying to discredit and blame. also, you where all for switching to razorflash on day one? and you even said it was worth a shot. now its not? what gives? Because it was day 1, and there was really only 1 lynch target: Sevryn. If you didn't like lynching Sevryn then it was too bad because he was the only real candidate. Today is different because it's day 2, we have more information, and 3 solid candidates. By solid I mean we've spent time discussing and analyzing them. Why would we discredit all the analysis to lynch a semi-lurker last minute? We should be spending our last 2 hours (1.5 now) debating between hiro and Mig (as someone said xtfftc does not have enough votes at the moment). Instead we have to deal with random switches to kill semi-lurkers and we'll have to listen to chaos13's defense when he comes back. Waste of time. Based on what happened yesterday, I doubt there's even enough people here to get him lynched even if he roleclaimed mafia. There simply is not enough people here. | ||
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I still want to kill Mig lololol | ||
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Seriously, mafia are usually afk at nighttime. When have you ever seen mafia blatantly arguing with town like you guys are? Why should they choose to be out in the open arguing with you all when they can just go afk and let it blow over? If Palmar suddenly disappeared you would notice for a while then forget all about him as you go to lynch supersoft. Don't even try to deny it. The lurker list is huge this game. You guys are providing a horrible atmosphere to the town. Although I guess through this you've all pretty much confirmed each other as town (except BrownBear obviously). If you're all writing angry posts you definitely are not thinking clearly and thus your judgment is null. Gee you lynched a townie who was pretty suspicious. Oh well move on and learn from it. Have you guys even reread Hiro's posts and see who he was having conversations with? Lay off each other and think for yourselves. I thought Hiro was mafia from the beginning of the day because he's one of the people that fell into my trap. Instead of trying to get your post count up why don't you try to learn from our mistake and see if we can get any leads based on Hiro's posting. If anyone is just reading this, don't read pages 74 through 77. I've seen less bantering and more logical arguments in the general forum. I'm almost happy I'm going to be dying tonight because this is just ridiculous. | ||
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On August 25 2011 03:55 VisceraEyes wrote: Foolishness I'd like your thoughts on Palmar please. I stated above that I'm sure anyone who's posting around now is town (exception of our favorite colored bear poster). I believe I said earlier in the game (day 1) that I thought he was town as well. He's too aggressive in his posting to be mafia. When he's mafia he has the "blend-in" posts which for him consists of two paragraphs where he doesn't use the word 'fuck' or aggressively say anything. Like this from PTP2: On July 27 2011 01:59 Palmar wrote: By the way, just for reference, Fishball claimed cop in CCM, and he was in no way confirmed, but in that game BC was willing to lie, because he was convinced that Fishball was telling the truth. He was willing to falsely confirm a cop claim he believed, because that's how much he trusted Fishball's claim. I just have no idea how this does even fly, and the constant threats that anyone who votes for you will be held accountable. I'll be the first person to be held accountable for you, I want you checked, or dead. His willingness to flat out argue in the thread (like he's doing now) just does not seem reasonable for mafia. When he's mafia, he'll call people stupid and say 'fuck', but I've never seen him get into a long argument like he is doing now. But you know his attitude is so detrimental to the town right now you might as well kill him if he keeps this up. The one strange thing I've noticed about Palmar is that as mafia he likes to accuse his scum buddies day 1/2. He did that to me in PTP2. I nearly have enough proof to show that BrownBear is mafia, and Palmar did accuse BrownBear day 1. So now I wonder.... | ||
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On August 25 2011 04:28 chaoser wrote: @Foolishness, I still think we should get mig lynched. He's like 90% mafia in my eyes. His early contradiction followed by his posting patterns (scarcely and only when needed) are all red in my eyes. Of course. But BrownBear should be the next person to follow. RayzorFlash is probably mafia as well. | ||
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On August 25 2011 05:50 BrownBear wrote: Oh, this is gonna be fun. I can't wait to hear this one. Seriously, that meta argument that got you started on me is among the dumbest arguments I've ever heard in mafia, period. I expect better of you. | ||
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That's right fellow players! After 2 torturous days of trying to find mafia, hunting seasons has officially begun! The target of our illustrious hunt is the elusive and fearful BROWNBEAR I will go through in detail the characteristics of the BrownBear. It is vital that we are all prepared to catch this sneaky fellow, as if we are too loud he will simply run away from our grasp, and if we are not careful he will sneak up behind us and maul (shoot) us. 1) restatement of already said arguments. As everyone should, BrownBear has written paragraphs to explain his lynch votes. Of course, everyone should justify their vote so we know where we stand. But our BrownBear is lacking in that he has yet to make a vote that is uniquely is own and push for it. Let me bring to attention these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar. Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens: LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you. I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day. Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so. Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Vote Sevryn. + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2011 07:17 BrownBear wrote: k, xtfftc: This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't). Ok, fair enough, I'm sure you'll come back later in the day cycle to see how the discussion is panning out and see if you're opinion needs changing... Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Also he and supersoft get in a small catfight over "please vote lists" which is completely inconsequential, so I'm gonna ignore it. A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten. I approve of the apology to supersoft tho. Good sportsmanship there, keep it up! Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.) This is "The Big Slip" that everyone keeps talking about. He explains it away as "town kills = kills by town" later, but... ehhh, lets look at it more. The way I think he meant it is, he wanted to use our lynch vote to hit someone else, then let Sevryn get modkilled to take out the maximum number of people that day. This brings us to ye olde "Double Vote Conundrum" from back when double votes were standard in games. Thing about DVs is, sometimes they nail us 2 mafia and we are happy. Sometimes they nail us a mafia and a town, and we're like "ok, cool, I guess." Most of the time, we lynch two town and basically give mafia a free extra kill. In a situation where we have confirmed scum (like a DT check or something), then this can be an alright thing to use. In our case on day 1, the other suspicious players were me (not scum), DropBear (probably not scum), Palmar kinda (not scum), and Rayzor (no clue). This is NOT a situation where we want to kill an extra person - we'd argue a bunch, probably settle on one of the 4 people above (most likely Rayzor, given how he almost got switched onto), and then... what? We'd have possibly 2 town dead for nothing, scum still gets to kill at night, we're one day closer to MYLO than we would have been. Someone's gonna say "But BrownBear, Sevryn was town! How dare you say an extra lynch would be a waste!" Yes, NOW that we know sevryn was town, we should have lynched someone else. DId we know sevryn was town at the time? No. The only person I saw who straight-up said Sev was town was Palmar, and I'm suspecting he just said that cause he was tunneled in on me and wanted everyone else to switch to me. Most other people either thought he was scum, or were convinced enough he could be scum to vote for him over a no-lynch. Towards the end of the day it got a little more vague with the switch, but clearly since everyone switched back, everyone preferred Sevryn to nobody, which is not the tack you'd take if you were 100% convinced sev was town. This is a very random post. Supersoft and QS is a bit of an OMGUS, which he admits. His post about the Bears (it's BrownBear btw ^^ ) contains nothing to back up his accusations, which are wrong to begin with (wasn't going aggressively against inactives at all, posted in ONE POST "hey we should look at the guys who have only posted a few times and have contributed nothing", then Palmar jumped down my throat and made it seem like it was this huge thing that was the centerpiece of my evil plan to mislead and destroy town). Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. Whatever tho bro, continue to sheep along different paths without ever contributing your own ideas. Raises the concept of a no-lynch (this was in the period where everyone was thinking "wait a minute what if Sev's just dumb town?). This is true, he was the first to dump an accusation on Rayzor. Perhaps we should look at Rayzor more, now that I think about it. We did almost lynch him, after all. xtfftc does harp on his accusations of rayzor a LOT from this point out, so I'll gloss over the posts that are literally just "hey guyz i was the first to suspect rayzor did you know I still suspect him?" Although, he goes to mig as a better candidate. Let me highlight the part of his post that makes no sense to me: So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one? After this post, it basically boils down to VE discovering xtfftc's big slip, and xtfftc frantically defending himself. VERDICT: He's focused a LOT on Rayzor and is "very suspicious" of him, but has always seemed to find a better lynch candidate (with really shitty logic usually, i might add.) His HUGE EFFING SLIP OMG is pretty damning - it seems he takes the "kill everyone and hope we hit mafia" approach, which I don't like one bit, because it's not a very town-favored viewpoint. He has yet to really contribute anything besides his Rayzor argument, and he hasn't backed that up too well. He's very comfortable sheeping along behind more vocal townies. He wanted stories that were already fully developed to "develop further". In short, he's very wary of putting his ass on the line, and he's using very misleading and bad logic, and he's slipped. I'm comfortable lynching him. ##Vote: xtfftc In the first spoiler, we see the BrownBear explaining his vote for Sevryn. On it's own there's not much to say about it, and if this was the first accusation against Sevryn it would be pretty legit. The problem is that it's not the first accusation against Sevryn. By the time he made this post, Curu and wherebugsgo had already spent hours explaining why Sevryn deserved to die, and embedded in their arguments (as well as others) where the exact same reasons BrownBear listed. All he did was restate what everyone said. The first post of Sevryn's he quoted was the exact post that started the lynch against him (Sevryn), which was first pointed out by Curu and Kurumi. BrownBear wrote a text wall to explain his vote which can be summed up as "I agree with everyone". And he was here posting in the thread against Palmar when the first accusations on Sevryn were going up as well. Except he tossed his vote on JeeJee with a text wall of analysis (some of which I admit was good). The problem here is that he accused JeeJee (fine) but then never again said a word about him. BrownBear was active for the next ~6 hours and was posting but never against said the name JeeJee. If he really thought JeeJee was mafia, he'd be there trying to push his lynch and get people off the Sevryn wagon. Instead he posted one liners (most against Palmar) and flat out did not say anything of significance to the town. This is where the mafia hide. BrownBear is guilty of rewriting arguments to justify his votes. He's guilty of waiting until there are votes on a person before switching to them (check the voting history if you don't believe me. Both times he waited until at least 5 people were voting before switching to Sevryn/xtfftc). Both times he restated arguments to justify his vote. Even more incriminating, he never pushed hard to lynch anyone. He would make his vote post then write one liners and hardly touch upon his accusation. He seldom talks about who he thinks is mafia, and most of the time it's only when asked when he tells. Also, if I'm right about Mig and Rayzor both being mafia, then this just further incriminates him more as he voted for townie in both situations (when he voted for xtfftc, at the time it looked like xtfftc or Mig was going to be lynched). There will be more about Mig and Rayzor later in this post. 2) Dodging Responses. We must be very wary of the BrownBear, because just when you think you have him cornered he barrel rolls to the side and escapes up a tree! Let's observe two of the instances where is dodging is suspect: + Show Spoiler + On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote: BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1. BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum ##Vote BrownBear This is Palmar's accusation of BrownBear day 1. I will say right now that Palmar's accusation is a bit iffy as I feel like he's stretching points to make ends meet. But as a whole, he brings up some good points about BrownBear deflecting discussion away from himself and DropBear. When I first read this post I was a bit intrigued. My initial response was "lol okay Palmar...whatever you say" but upon closer reading there are valid points that need to be addressed. And how does our BrownBear respond? Take a look: On August 21 2011 01:23 BrownBear wrote: Lol Palmar? Keep trying to twist my words bro, it's getting you nowhere. You have no credibility with town right now, and you really only have yourself to blame. Just give it up. Your crusade against bears has failed. Switching my vote to Sevryn because that deadline's looming, and he's got the most votes right now. Of course, why should he respond when he knows that things he say might incriminate him more? I will give him some benefit of the doubt in that it is Palmar, but long accusation posts in which there was a clear attempt of effort put in need to be taken seriously. I'm interested in why BrownBear even chose to respond in the first place. VisceraEyes has called me mafia twice after I claimed the hit and roleblock, and I ignored him. Why? Frankly because it's VisceraEyes and I don't think he's serious. I figured that if I responded it would only clutter up the thread and lead to an argument. But BrownBear chooses to respond to Palmar with clutter, basically telling him "go home bro". Another dodge which I overlooked for a long while is this conversation I had with him: On August 22 2011 12:33 Foolishness wrote: Not really. Look at the player list. Who do you think would roleblock and hit me in the same night? On August 22 2011 12:35 BrownBear wrote: Not me. If I were playing mafia, I'd roleblock and doublestack you to ensure you died night 1. You're far too dangerous to a red team left alive. Dodge much? Why wouldn't you answer that question and instead choose to immediately defend himself? All he had to do was say "chaoser" or "jackal" or "maybe chaos13 or DropBear or Curu". Or he could have easily taken what Curu said: "Foolishness, I don't think it means anything; plenty of people know about your history, and it's easy to find out from the mafia quiz. Frankly I could see almost anyone roleblocking and hitting you at once, especially if they couldn't agree on a better target". That's a very pro-town response (what Curu wrote) because it's honest and considering alternate possibilities to a situation. But yet, BrownBear chooses to claim innocence. It's almost like if you caught a 5 year old stealing cookies and then asked him "who do you think stole the cookies?" and he immediately responds "I didn't do it!". ATTENTION: IF YOU ARE VISCERAEYES PLEASE STOP READING HERE AND CONTINUE TO THE SUMMARY AT THE BOTTOM. THE NEXT SECTION IS ALL ABOUT BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS AND "META", OF WHICH YOU CLAIM MEANS NOTHING IN TERMS OF FINDING MAFIA This quote will lead into my last point: On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him. It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets? First I want to address his "meta builds a pretty shit argument", because I honestly think he knows better than that. He's been around for a while now and plays a pretty mean game of mafia. Secondly, he's reasonably sure that I'm townie though. Nothing to say about that. He asks me about potential lynch targets. Of course I have potential lynch targets, everyone does. We all know that it's at this post chaoser and I voted for Mig. I was pleased for him to say this because I thought he was on my side. I believed he would listen to what I say and auto vote with me with simple logic: "well Foolishness is 99% confirmed. Foolishness is known for hunting mafia, particularly lurkers. If he says person X is mafia, person X is probably mafia". Boy was I in for a surprise. 3) Failure to comment about Mig. For those that haven't figured it out yet, I deliberately laid a trap for the mafia day 2. I was very certain that Mig was mafia after chaoser's initial accusation so I decided to vote for Mig and go afk. I knew chaoser was going to be afk soon based on his posting schedule as well. What's the trap? Assume for a minute that Mig is mafia (just go with it for a second here, I'll comment about this assumption later on). Mafia won't let one of their own die day 2, so at some point we can either expect someone to come in and help defend Mig OR for the topic to derail and shift the focus on a townie. And the latter is what happened. At the beginning of the day everyone was discussing Mig and quite a few people were on board with chaoser and I. This is reflected in the fact that 3 others voted for Mig in this time. What happened then? Hours upon hours later, Mig was just a secondary topic to the newfound suspect: xtfftc. Attention shifted to xtfftc and it was immediately clear to me that Mig was probably not going to get lynched because everyone just kinda forgot about him. Now it's what happened in between that's very important. Mig correctly pointed out in his defense, "If I'm mafia, why has nobody come in to defend me? Am I so bad that the mafia team has left me to die?" A valid point, but he brings this up multiple times (which I believe is an indication he's mafia, but this is about BrownBear). Now I didn't comment on this at the time, but the mafia did not need to defend Mig because they distracted the town with a different target: xtfftc. I advise you all to reread day 2 if you have the time. When you do, you will notice that there are a handful of people who refuse to comment about Mig. This is important. Why, as a townie, would you ignore one of the most prominent lynch suspects for the day? Multiple people wanted to kill Mig, why would you disregard that and shift focus elsewhere? This is precisely what mafia did, and this is why I was sure xtfftc was town. Since nobody was defending Mig, I knew attention would shift to another candidate and the mafia would run with that. Here is the list of people that never voiced their opinion about Mig: BrownBear, RayzorFlash, Hiro Protagonist, Vain. A few people half ignored the Mig but not to the same extent as the above four. I jotted down their names as well: Barundar, Erandorr, Greymist (who is now Insert_Freq). This is why I was okay with the Hiro lynch yesterday, because he was on the top of the list. And no, before you say, I'm not claiming that these lists are perfect and that I've found the entire mafia team. But I bet that there's at least 3 mafia in these 7 people, and my guess is it's BrownBear, Rayzor, and Barundar. With Mig as mafia that's 4 mafia I found. This is why I was adamant about killing Mig. If he flips red I guarantee there are mafia in those lists I just wrote. This is also why I kept telling people to look at the big picture and put the pieces together. Everything fits together perfectly. Mig is mafia, he uses the "why is nobody defending me" in his defense because he knows the mafia is deliberately shifting town focus onto someone else (xtfftc). The people who are doing that are most likely those who aren't voicing their opinion about Mig. Mig acts like he's helpless and nobody is on his side (anyone else ever notice how concise his defense posts are?) Remember that this is mafia, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit together in an arbitrary manner. I know some of you will probably say that I'm just throwing together random happenings and this is all just coincidence, but I encourage you to go reread any mafia game upon seeing the mafia list. It will be immediately clear why those people were mafia and how they were all linked together in the process. That's why I am able to say the things I've been saying with such certainty. I found the big picture and the majority of the pieces that go with it. For those that aren't convinced Mig is mafia, at the very least this shows that BrownBear is not willing to comment on big town issues. Why is he blatantly ignoring all posts against the person with the highest or second highest vote count? Why does he refuse to comment about him? Simple, BrownBear does not care about the town, nor does he care about who's getting lynched. The only other explanation is that he is so convinced that xtfftc is mafia that he cannot focus about anyone else. Based on his posting history we can all agree that's not going to be true. If you don't believe me, go filter BrownBear's posts and ctfl + f 'Mig'. He only mentions his name in passing "looks like Mig or xtfftc is getting lynched today". No discussion about whether Mig might be mafia or not. Note: this next part is important. Take a look at BrownBear's post when I posted the 'trap card' meme: On August 25 2011 05:58 BrownBear wrote: How is deciding I think xtfftc is scum, posting analysis on him, then reading everyone else's analysis, deciding mine's still better, and sticking to it tunnelvision? Are you saying the arguments against hiro were correct? Sure, some of them had merit, but in the end I thought the case against him was extremely weak, and my case was better. Mig's got a stronger case, I wouldn't mind him as a lynch target tomorrow, but I'm still gonna be pushing xtfftc until a better candidate comes along. That's not tunnelvision. Tunnelvision is when you're argument against someone boils down to: 1. He's scum because he called me out on my scummy behavior (classic OMGUS btw) 2. He's scum because I think he is. And then posting one-liners all game along the lines of "Let's lynch Player X" while offering NOTHING ELSE constructive. What you call "not being interested in pushing your case" is actually me just being drowned out by a metric buttload of spam. Also, I really don't see how Palmar is trying to get me lynched - or even really trying in this game anymore. He basically ragequit with this little gem: (ps don't ragequit yet Palmar, I know you can actually play this game, and if you drop the tunnel and cut the spam, you can really help town win. We still have a very real chance at turning this around, but we need active players like you to help!) That is the first (yes, the first) time BrownBear has voiced an opinion about Mig. And what is the first thing he said? "Mig's got a [strong] case against him". Wow, how convenient for you to say that considering YOUVE NEVER EVEN SAID ANYTHING ABOUT MIG IN THE PAST 72 HOURS! And now all of a sudden you think the case against him is good? Where were you when chaoser was accusing him, or when Mig and I were going back and forth? You were definitely here because you were posting in the thread. Nevermind I can answer that for you: you don't care about the town (and that's regardless if Mig is mafia or not). I imagine that BrownBear must have an expression on his face similar to this: I have now provided all the necessary information needed. As a town, you now have the tools to hunt the BrownBear and prevent him from escaping. Together, united, you can capture the BrownBear and once again bring peace to our town! SUMMARY Jimminy Christmas that was long. Let's recap on everything I have said since I know there's bound to be a few people who are too lazy to read through all of this: 1) BrownBear is mafia 2) BrownBear's vote posts are just restating already said arguments. He's never voiced his own opinion. Furthermore he never pushes who he's voting for. He makes his vote post, then spams one liners. 3) BrownBear has been extremely dodging and defense. He flat out refuses to respond to Palmar even with Palmar writes something good. He is very insistent that he is innocent. 4) BrownBear has refused to say anything with regards to Mig (until just now). If he was town he would be sure to voice his opinion on one of the top lynch candidates. He does not care about the town and this is evident because he has ignored the case against Mig. 5) If Mig is mafia, then BrownBear (and a few others) implicitly defended him by purposely switching town focus onto xtfftc (and then Hiro). They did this by not sharing their opinions about Mig and instead wrote paragraphs about why xtfftc (or Hiro) should have been lynched. I will still advocate that Mig should be the next lynch. But if you are too put off by his defense then BrownBear must die. On a random note I believe Pyo to be mafia as well. Someone should take a look at him in the near future. | ||
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Although strange...I remember at one time thinking Trotske was mafia, but don't recall why. | ||
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In the meantime, I would like to hear peoples' opinions about the following 3 people: 1) nard 2) Lucidity 3) Trotske (now iGrok. I'm mainly focused on Trotske's posting since iGrok just joined in). And yes Mig and BrownBear, I want your thoughts about these three as well. | ||
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I'd still like to hear what people think of the inactive list I posted earlier. Eventually we will have to start hunting in there so it's best to generate some discussion about it now while we're waiting for people to come back and/or respond to the accusations. 1) nard 2) lucidity 3) Trotske | ||
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I do believe that Mig is lying, but part of me feels that we should just take the safest option here. If he's indeed the tracker, it will force the mafia to roleblock him (or they risk him finding a mafia so once he does die we will know who to lynch). Of course we will make him check whoever we want (Pyo). I also do not believe chaos13 to be mafia. And Mig you never commented about my lurker list. | ||
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These things I've just listed have nothing to do with Mig's alignment. I believe that if Mig was town, his response to my analysis against BrownBear would be "Foolishness you're wrong, I'm not linked to BrownBear. However all your other points about BrownBear are really condemning. Let's kill BrownBear and I'll prove myself to you." Even if you are a tracker why would you be so adamant about getting chaos13 killed when you know perfectly well that most everyone here would gladly lynch BrownBear? Of course chaos13 is 95% mafia if you really are a tracker, but that would be something you would post before day ends in case we lynch you. BrownBear is your replacement lynch, not chaos13. My point is that you failed to comment about the case against BrownBear. Just like BrownBear failed to comment about the case against you. Just like everyone else in my mafia list (Rayzor, Vain, Barundar, Erandorr) failed to comment about you. When I'm mafia I hate having to talk about my mafia buddies in the thread, because it's so hard to fake an opinion when you know the truth. The analysis I've done this game is centered around the ideas that mafia hate having to take a firm stance about an issue, and that mafia hate having to talk about their members. As Mig pointed out, I was hesitant today to respond to Mig's posts because I feel like I cannot objectively read them. Anything I read of Mig's I just see the mafia in him. But other people (particularly Curu and wherebugsgo) have been able to analyze his arguments today without the subjectivity that I have, and they still want to kill Mig. That's all the proof I need that Mig is the correct lynch choice today. ##Vote: Mig I still want to hear from people about nard, Lucidity, and Trotske/iGrok (those who haven't given their opinions yet). | ||
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On August 27 2011 06:22 iGrok wrote: Alright, I've got a bit of time before hurricane hits, so let me get this straight. BrownBear lynch will not happen today if he is scum. So if you are a townie, vote Mig. A majority agrees that both are scum, but have a LOT of votes on Mig already. Make it happen. Don't let there be a no-lynch. You care to explain this one broski? I'm starting to like a BrownBear lynch now | ||
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On August 27 2011 06:42 Lucidity wrote: scumatlarge is taking over from BB's lurker defence too. If you wouldn't mind I hope you put your vote on Mig before the deadline to prevent a mafia vote switch that causes a no lynch. Yes I'm paranoid. yes I'm second guessing myself. | ||
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On August 27 2011 07:04 Lucidity wrote: That would basically confirm them as mafia though. I'll put my vote on the leading candidate before I go to bed, but for now I'd still like to try and get a BB lynch going. Why is everyone AFK? If they have a vigi they might be able to end the game a little sooner then we all anticipate On August 27 2011 07:05 iGrok wrote: After reading my second post, do you still need me to explain this? I doubt there will be enough activity to change the lynch from Mig to anyone else. Much more likely is a nolynch. uhhh...I was more referring to how your first post sounded extremely silly...and by silly I mean suspicious | ||
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On August 27 2011 07:23 wherebugsgo wrote: WTF ARE THESE DOUBTS? I'm heading home right now from class, so I'll keep this short. We NEED to lynch Mig today. Any other lynch target is NOT optimal. Don't second guess yourselves; we did this days one and two and then got screwed by our own mistakes. If we decide to lynch BB/bum we get no information, bum hasn't even posted anything yet. When I get home I'll be making a post that provides my thoughts on the history of the votes. I was looking at it this morning but I didn't have time to formulate my opinion. I told you I'm paranoid lol but I trust Curu and your's decision to lynch Mig. And that's what's going to happen today. | ||
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On August 27 2011 07:44 supersoft wrote: Brownbear is innocent by the way. Doesn't matter what mig flips. What makes you say that? | ||
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On August 27 2011 08:33 Lucidity wrote: If they have a vigi it would be Kurumi. Why would they delay their KP if they can't miss? (Now I really feel like a spammer) Well what if Kurumi is a town vigi and the mafia have their own with a fully loaded gun still? Although you make a good point in that I don't think they would delay their KP given the current situation. | ||
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On August 27 2011 11:09 bumatlarge wrote: If I was mafia, I would have doublestacked him night 2, because he would be a dangerous townie to go against. Is it just coincidence that BrownBear nearly said the exact same thing? You clearly did not read my analysis against BrownBear. Just like Mig didn't read it. BrownBear wasn't voicing his own opinion nor did he show he cared about the town at all. That has nothing do with what alignment Mig. I would have rather killed you today than Mig but I felt it too mean to not give you a chance to defend yourself. So you got it, I hope you make it count. It's likely the mafia roleblocked Palmar, or were planning to have either Mig or BrownBear claim it. They might have used it on someone thinking they were a veteran (that's what they did with me). If you want to be a Pyrrhuloxia that's fine with me, but until you read the thread and post a decent analysis I don't feel the need to respond to you. | ||
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1) nard 2) Lucidity 3) Trotske (now iGrok) There's bound to be mafia in the lurkers this game, it's best if we start figuring out who now. Even if you don't die tomorrow we still need to find a mafia. | ||
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Why? I pointed this out already, but day 1, Mig and Vain came in and voted for Sevryn doing the attempted vote switch. I do not find it reasonable that 2 mafia members would out themselves like that. Seems suicidal from the mafia perspective. | ||
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That was before I was really gunning for Mig though. I'm not ruling him out yet, I just think we have better targets at the moment. He's definitely someone to keep an eye on. | ||
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On August 28 2011 01:20 bumatlarge wrote: I think I've thoroughly defended myself and BB's actions. Foolishness said himself that BB was mostly guilty through connections, which I find incredibly faulty, and a majority of his analysis was based on BB's lack of original opinions and reasoning for what he did. I don't believe that was true at all, and I especially felt BB's xttc analysis was very much his own and I saw multiple points that I did not see posted by people foolishness said he copied. Why I am still under heavy consideration is beyond me. I'll address the suspects listed one by one so you can have my opinion, and you can't blame me for restating because I've barely read the thread! jk What do you think of the following 3 people then? 1) nard 2) Lucidity 3) Trotske/iGrok | ||
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On August 28 2011 02:09 chaoser wrote: Foolishness, what are your takes on them? I asked before and you didn't answer. Oh right, I was distracted with the lynch at the time. 1) Not entirely sure at the moment. Last time I read through his posts I saw it going both ways. His inactivity level over the past day or two is really disturbing though. Day 1 he seemed a lot more active. 2) Not mafia, Lucidity is putting himself out there too much. I don't think a mafia would risk drawing attention to them self at this point in the game. Also Lucidity called me mafia at one point. If Lucidity knew that Mig was mafia I don't think he would try to call me mafia in the thread right as I'm gunning for his teammate. 3) I thought Trotske was mafia, but I think iGrok is town. At this point iGrok seems to be here and posting (which was more than Trotske) so I think we can put him aside for a day or two. | ||
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Yes it's 100%. I wanted to bring this information up yesterday but the timing never came, especially after Mig claimed. It should be clear why I had everyone write up what they thought about those 3 people. Make sure to look at the people who didn't respond to that (there are a few who did, and they are all on my suspect list). Kill nard today so that the mafia will have their KP reduced. Mafia list: nard, BrownBear, Barundar, Pyo, RayzorFlash. If one of those flip green then Erandorr. | ||
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