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The best cases by far right now are those brought up against Seviro and Nova. The case against Gossamer by Virtu was unconvincing, especially since he failed to post the whole thing... And the case against michaelthe is weak as well: He defends himself well against Artanis’s legit pressure, and Seviro’s case on him feels very forced to begin with.
Nova: Not much to say here, just read mementoss’s post on him, he does an excellent job pointing out the inconsistencies, weak cases brought up, and different metagame of Nova this game... Nova’s defense, in return, is spectacularly bad: He makes the most unreasonably long-winded post in the thread full of real life spam, and explains his ‘new metagame’ as a way to get closer to mementoss’s play, even though he’s actually getting farther from it in my opinion. Scummy behavior in my eyes.
I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed.
Seviro: I think he’s scum too. Erratic voting record, most posts giving no new contributions, some stuff about ‘pressure but no lynch’ which was really silly, etc... It’s all been pointed out before me so I won’t repeat. But I will point out a few posts (or parts of posts):
+ Show Spoiler + “I had no position on this, and since it seems that I don't have opinion or I just use others argument I might as well just not post.”
You had no opinion, really?! On a vigi hit?!
How seviro’s case against mementoss begins:
+ Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
And I like how you position yourself as a defender of Rise, twice...
+ Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 05:44 Seviro wrote: Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote: What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:
+ Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
He was commenting on Rise's "I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline." comment at that point... I get it now! That must be the old “defend him by pointing out his scummy behavior” strategy! Yeah, I don’t see it too often…
I’d be fine with lynching any of these two at the moment. They may very well both be scum. But since I only vote once…
##Vote: Seviro
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Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts:
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Never try to defend me, by the way.
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EBWOP
Oh, for people wondering, my issue here isn't Rise, it's Seviro trying to gain credit on something he didn't do after the fact. That's a scummy thing to do.
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I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance".
I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched.
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I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch:
Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro
Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
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Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
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>.< How do we suck so much...
I wish he'd defended himself like he did in his last post earlier, instead of self-voting...
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My 2 suspects are Nova and michaelthe at this point. I don’t really have anything new to add to Nova’s case, but michaelthe’s ridiculous voting behavior puts him ahead of Nova at this point. Some of the things he says are contradictory, some of them are just plain wrong. I’ve pointed out a few problems with that switch already, but I missed this the first time:
Look at who we have active as well:
Mementoss, Artanis, You, Seviro, Nova.
We can get the guaranteed kill on Nova easily. Goss and Ninja are both afk.
Goss (who had his vote on Nova) was not afk at the moment this post was made. He had posted just 40 minutes before, commenting on michaelthe’s voteswitch. AND MICHAEL ACTUALLY REPLIED TO GOSS, so he can’t have missed the fact that he was there. But after that, it’s convenient to turn around and tell me Goss is afk… So what we have here is a nice little lie!
I don’t know how the vote switch relates to motive, though. If michaelthe is scum, then he knows Seviro is town, yet he’s trying to direct the lynch in the other direction, towards Nova. The least risky move for mafia, by far, would have been to just stick with that lynch. This said, if michaelthe is scum, then Nova is probably townie, and he’s been more threatening to michaelthe than Seviro has so that might be the motive? In terms of information, this is a good lynch – but we can NOT afford a lynch based on acquiring information here. Still I think the case stands on its own.
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Since I appear to be under heavy suspicion, I’ll comment on Seviro’s last post, which I wish he’d done a few hours earlier instead of self-lynching, because there was a lot more effort in it. I still think my analysis of his ‘defense’ of Rise was all right: Sure, you can point out places where he’s saying ‘I think he’s townie’ without real justification or defense of the argument, and others where he’s saying “give him time”, which I don’t call a defense because whoever put out a vote against Rise at that point still had the option to unvote later on – everyone was already giving him time until the first lynch, and many were saying “I find Rise suspicious but I’m gonna give him a chance”, like Seviro was. Then Seviro says:
Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him. I don’t think I should get any scum points for pointing these things out…
It’s pointed out by others that I was more useful at the beginning than at the end, to which I reply that I get home/wake up and the best cases are already written by other people, so all I can do is add to them, so I review the thread and filters and point out what I find, which most of the time turns out to be against someone who has a case on them already. I can’t really point out anything against Artanis (confirmed townie) or mementoss (whose play has been very green, so not a lot to point out), or our inactives like Virtu, so yeah my commentary fell to Goss, Nova, michaelthe (see above) and the late Seviro most of the time – and surprise! They were the ones with cases on their back. When I agree with a case I just say so, no need to clutter up the thread.
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Reply to mementoss’s questions:
Reply to Seviros last post (guess you did now) Who do you think will die tonight/why? Who do you think is logically next to go after Michael flips scum?
Question 1: Done!
Question 2: Artanis seems to be the best pick at first: He’s confirmed townie, so he won’t get lynched. He won’t even get any votes from now until the end of the game (whereas mementoss might, but it's unlikely), so obviously he has to end up night-killed. But let’s look at the situation here...
-Most people see you as likely green, right below Artanis (though not confirmed) -Mafia see that a green (me) seems to be the town’s lynch target for day4, after michaelthe day3 -You’re the driving force (along with Nova, but people listen to you more) behind lynching me day4
It’s pretty easy for mafia to let Artanis live another night and hit you tonight instead, hoping the town lynches me in retaliation on day 4 (Day 3 is, of course, a lock for a michaelthe lynch imo). In fact, if it worked, that would win them the game right there, and I’m not getting the feeling my "I'm getting framed!" defense would work on the remaining townies. If somehow I didn’t get lynched day 4 after that, the town still would get your advice for one less day. You're not a good lynch target day 4 so letting you live provides them no advantage in terms of survival, either... So it’s one of you two, but if I were mafia I’d probably go for you now, and Artanis next night if they haven’t won yet.
In other words... townlynch michaelthe (5-2), scumhit mementoss (4-2), townlynch blueyd (3-2), scumhit whoever (2-2) and mafia wins. That would be my plan as scum.
Question 3: I’m going to assume that we lynch michaelthe on the next day and he’s scum, as the question asks me to, and go from there. That probably is what will happen, anyway. I’ll go by elimination first, then see who remains...
- Not you or Artanis, you’re the greenest non-confirmed in my eyes and Artanis is 100% confirmed town. - Not Nova for reasons explained in previous post: michaelthe wouldn’t try to switch a Seviro lynching towards Nova if Nova is scum and Seviro is town, so that makes Nova a lot more likely to be town. - Yeah, not me. Call me biased!
So that leaves ninja4ever, Gossemerr, and Virtu as options for day 4 after the day 3 michaelthe lynch, from my point of view anyway. Time to look at all 3! I’ll post more later on.
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EBWOP:
Oh wait, I knew something was wrong. Point 2: The next death is a scumhit not a townlynch. :-p
So, scumhit mementoss (4-3), townlynch michaelthe (4-2), scumhit Artanis (3-2), townlynch me (2-2) and this is done.
Doesn't really change the idea (getting me framed since I'm already #2 target and green), just puts everything in the right order.
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Whaaaaaaaat... How are you both still here?!
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Monster post time!
Okay, I said I’d post analysis on ninja, Virtu and Gossemer. Gossemer is dead, though... I’ll see what I can tell from his death.
Before that, though, let’s get this out of the way:
##Vote: Michaelthe
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I mostly want him to stop parroting and post some analysis of his own at this point. He’s been lurking and just putting his vote on who’s the next lynch all game long, and getting away with it. I add that I don’t have to be scum in order for his parroting behavior to be suspicious, he just has to know who’s scum and who’s townie, and jump on whatever bandwagon targets the wrong people... which is apparently those I’m in, every single time. -_-
Yeah, so this has all been said. Sue me. Still I have a question, and I hope he finally replies with something worth reading... To ninja: Assuming we get a scum today, who would you then lynch day 4, and why?
My take on ninja4ever: null leaning scum. ----------
On Virtu:
Our other lurker. I went through the whole filter looking to see what it looked like... The last reason for his inactivity seems believable, he even asked a mod if he could be subbed out. And then he came back for the vote. There was no comment on seviro/nova we can work with.
There was a bit of an inconsistency no one caught early on to justify his inactivity, though, but it’s not enough to build a case around it. See these two posts for yourself: MLG is good for activity, then it’s bad.
Nice to see this started before MLG weekend, will be watching plenty of MLG so should have time to be active.
I'm slightly more inactive than I'd like to be, I joined after GMarshal said that we most likely wouldn't start until after the end of MLG under the presumption that this would be the case, but as it's started before, MLG has taken up most of my attention so far. Go figure... I like that he’s targeted guys other than those we ended up lynching, though, and the MLG thing seems very minor to me. He seems to have his own opinion. He’s less suspicious than ninja4ever to me.
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This was to be Gossemer’s section, but now he’s dead.
Here was how I thought night lynches would go: Artanis would be night hit first and mementoss next night, or the opposite. Either way, they would be the next 2 night hits. If somehow things didn’t go this way, I figured Artanis would die and mementoss would live, in which case I would get to ask mementoss why he’s still alive. Until then he seemed to me like dead-man-walking, an assessment he agreed with for a time before changing his mind, so I figured I’d let it go and hold off on analysis since he would likely die in the next 2 nights and our only day target before that was already decided.
Turns out both are still alive after night 1, which was totally unexpected for me. I’m going to say that this is because both are useful for mafia’s purposes right now, whereas Gossemer wasn’t. Both are aiming for michaelthe, then for me – If you’re mafia, this point of view is a very useful one to keep alive at least until more people are convinced, since I’m town. (I realize this won’t convince anyone, but I’m just telling you what’s running through my head at the moment.) Gossemer was aiming for michaelthe but didn’t comment on me after the Seviro lynch, preferring to aim for... mementoss.
I don’t have a case on mementoss right now, but he’s back on the suspicions list. I’ll read what others have written on him again tomorrow, go through filters, etc... See if the case stands up or doesn’t at all.
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Whew, finally got one.
Sorry I haven't been active, real life stuff getting in the way. There wasn't all that much urgent stuff to deal with in the town anyway - well, apart from the fact that you guys seem to be about to lynch me, but I still have a while before even that happens. It was pretty clear michaelthe was our lynch choice for today, anyway.
I'll get to what I gotta do in 2 days, or maybe late tomorrow night. I still have to post an analysis of mementoss as I said I would, too.
If anyone but Artanis gets scumhit tomorrow, I will be extremely surprised.
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No, nonono guys, it's not MYLO, it's LYLO. It's 3-2. Mementoss, ninja/Janaan, Nova, Bluey, Virtu. 5 of us, 2 scum. Lynch no one and we fall at 2-2 tomorrow night, and mafia wins. We HAVE to lynch today.
I'd like to request that the discussion today revolve around who we lynch today. As of now, it’s entirely useless to discuss strategy for days we won’t get to at this rate.
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I stand by my earlier analysis on 3 of you. I thought Nova was scum, but now I think “leaning town” because michael tried to switch the votes to him on the day we lynched Seviro, which could very well have worked. Ninja/Janaan is more suspicious than Virtu, but it’s hard to know with the guy hardly being active. Between those 3, I’d say Ninja/Janaan is most likely to be the scum. But I’ve said all that already.
Ah, but we have 2 scum left, don’t we? Who’s the other one? The answer is, I don’t know. I’m taking it 1 day at a time right now.
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Just a few questions to town about mementoss…
First, how is he still alive? How come the greenest of the green, the town leader, survives to this day over froggynoddy and Gossemer? If I’d been mafia I would’ve taken him down on the first day, unless of course he were mafia as well, given that it was pretty clear from last game that he doesn’t really belong in a newbie game. Does he just have mad surviving skills, or is he simply on the side that doesn’t get night hit?
Second, let’s take a hypothetical situation: You’re scum, you’re clearly about to be lynched and nothing will save you. You have one last opportunity to attack someone. Do you…
a) Attack a townie, hoping the town still believes your attacks are legit when you flip scum. b) Attack another scum, making him look greener when you die.
It’s pretty obvious to me that michaelthe had zero chance of making a mementoss lynch pass at that moment, that any attacks he could make would backfire once he was revealed as scum, and that he used some very weak arguments unlikely to convince anyone, so this looks more like B than A to me.
I’d love to make a stronger case against mementoss, but the truth is he’s very good, and that’s pretty much all I have. And it’s a WIFOM, and of course he’s gonna win these by being seen as a greenie by eeeeeeveryone.
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Mementoss, I’d like to ask another question. You said:
I am certain that there is a scum between you [Nova] and BlueyD. Why is that? Where does this certainty come from?
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Who said anything about me convinced you're not town? I'm merely not convinced you're town, there's a difference. Can't I analyse you, or do anything without being branded scummy, really? And didn't I say I don't think I had much of a case on you if you were scum? Jeez...
Well, I really don't think I can save my ass, so I'll just put my vote on the on Nova like Janaan did, in a desperate attempt to keep the game going, and I'll get back here after the game to laugh at you all.
My metagame for next game: Shut up like Virtu, apparently that's good for survival and actually trying isn't.
##Vote: Nova_Terra
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The point is survival for me because if I die, it's 2-2 and mafia wins. I wouldn't normally care about surviving or not, but the situation just calls for it. I don't have an extremely solid lynch target in sight, so
And I'd rather put a vote on Janaan or even you, but it doesn't look like that would actually pass. In such a case a Nova lynch is better for town than lynching me, from my own point of view, because I at least know it's not 100% loss.
You seem to have dismissed or just ignored a LOT of what I've said to try to convince you that I'm green, and you just keep repeating that I'm scummy, so of course I don't have anything new to offer, and all I see is our loss getting closer and closer every hour. The other guys in town seem happy to just put a vote without really explaining it (my explanation might suck in your eyes, but at least it's honest), so again, not much to reply to. So it feels a bit like a lost cause to me, really.
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Ack, 1st paragraph...
EBWOP:
(...) so all I can really do is try to defend myself and hope that, somehow, I become a less attractive lynch target. Heck, it's not like the others are giving me any activity to work with and try to make a case.
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Oh, and I might add, flagging me as the obvious #1 was a great way to stiffle discussion. We already had 2 inactives, and if any of them is mafia then they really had no reason to become active, because you went "It's michaelthe then Bluey" 2 days ago, and got Artanis's support as well. That's when the town started getting ghosty.
Virtu and Janaan were under ZERO pressure today.
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As I've said repeatedly, I see Nova as "leaning townie" due to his interaction with michael: michael trying to switch the vote from Seviro to Nova. There's really two ways to see this move: 1) michaelthe legitimately tried to switch a lynch from a townie to townie to cause chaos, or 2) michaelthe was commiting suicide just to make Nova look less suspicious, which was entirely unneeded because Seviro was gonna be lynched over Nova anyway. #2 seems far-fetched to me, and so I think Nova is more likely to be town.
I put my vote on him because after the whole "Bluey vs Nova" thing and Janaan's vote, his lynch looked like my only chance of surviving, therefore our only chance of not losing tonight. He's not my #1 lynch candidate, ideally.
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You say a Janaan or Virtu lynch has the disadvantage of not giving us much information. That's true, but that's also our fault: We didn't pressure these guys much in the last few days, even though we had plenty of time due to michael's lynch being decided very early on day 3 (or even night 2). We called them inactive and suspicious, but as long as we were attacking the active ones they just had to stay in the back and eat their pop corn.
You've already said don't think both Nova and I are mafia, which means right now you HAVE to be thinking at LEAST one of the lurkers is. My best pick between the two is Janaan, and yours is as well.
And unlike what you say, it's not too late: Nova said he'd be around, Virtu will show up to vote, and we represent 2 votes. We could actually do it.
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As for the michaelthe lynch, you seem to think pointing out why exactly the voteswitch was nonsensical, which is what I did, was a non-important part of the case. I was on michaelthe's ass right when that happened, asking him why he was trying to switch from Seviro to Nova and pointing out how his "I'm just making sure we get a lynch" excuse made zero sense given the number of votes, and his "but the guys on the other side aren't here to switch votes!" excuse didn't stand because Gossemer was actually there.
I'll be the first to grant that I wasn't the first to make a case against him. You'll have to agree that the part of the case which I did make was very convincing, and that no one made it before I did. If your own case against him had been that convincing, we would've lynched him day 2 instead of Seviro.
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Come on, mementoss, stop deforming my words. I said an analysis of you would come. All I had against you, I posted. It wasn't much. I recognised it. I never said I'd make a case - I hadn't even looked at your filter in a while when I said that, hence why I said I'd take a closer look and post what I had.
And I just explained why I voted Nova, twice, but here you go again... At the moment of my vote, this was the situation:
Probability of lynching someone other than Nova or me: Very low; would probably result in me being lynched instead Probability of town losing if I am lynched, from my own point of view: 100% Probability of town losing if Nova is lynched: Somewhat less than 100%
Possibility of making a very good case on anyone else: Very low as well, since there are 2 inactives, 1 very good player and 1 guy I think is more likely to be green than red.
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On April 02 2012 08:13 Mementoss wrote: That being said I am still not set in my vote, if other people other than me and BlueyD contribute to the conversationg I might be willing to switch.
"Hey guys, if you don't say a word, we'll lynch Bluey!"
Lol... Well you just took both mafia out of the conversation, good job. Why would you do that?
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