Newbie Mini Mafia IX
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Anyway, good morning all. First real game of Mafia, played in the big game that GMarshal tried to host a while ago which turned into a mess of modkills and replacements. It seems I agree with the majority in terms of accepting a lynch on a lurker. I think a very important aspect of playing mafia is to set an atmosphere where posting is encouraged. The more people post, the more we have to analyse which is critical to getting good reads and not making poor decisions. So far it looks like we have had some activity from the majority of players which is good to see. Another issue that I believe is important, you should always try to justify your logic behind your voting. Doing so will provide valuable insight as to what you are thinking. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I should probably clarify that the acceptance of a lurker lynch of obviously conditioned on the fact that there are no other suspects out there. I think from Day 2 onwards hopefully we have sufficient information to make a logical and well reasoned lynch. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
However, this early in the game I am more willing to let it slide simply because I understand your intentions, they are simply to get people involved in the discussion etc. After the first couple of days I am less willing to treat this in a similar manner, simply because I don't think it really serves a purpose to encourage people to spam up the thread. This would only serve to muddy the waters etc. Clearly there is a balancing act involved, we want to encourage activity but not meaningless spam. People need to post, however I would prefer they be clear and concise and actually contribute to the discussion. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
If a no lynch is even possible I don't think it is a terrible outcome, in most of the past Newbie games I have flicked through I notice that it tends to be a townie who is lynched first, and the overall odds support the same occuring more commonly than a Mafia getting lynched. A no lynch would give us an additional 24 hours with the full contingent of players to add posts and help us all form a more well-rounded view of each player, then after the Mafia night kill we would be down to 8 townies. I would prefer this than to be down to 7 due to a mislynch on Day1. However, there are down-sides to a no-lynch. A few people have mentioned that you get a lack of information, you don't get a flip, but you still do have the people's votes to review and you can examine their logic and reasoning behind why they put their votes where they did. But it may not necessarily mean as much without a flip. ##Vote: Macheji For now I am going to put my vote on Macheji, he has contributed 3 posts, 2 which are essentially the same and the 3rd is questioning the logic behind 'pressure voting'. Each of the 3 posts are roughly 1 sentence each, I know we want people to be clear and concise, but you really need to make an effort to add more to your posts. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Fair enough. To clarify, I would prefer to No Lynch if that is an available option, and would change my vote off Macheji if that were to become an option. Where do you stand on the issue out of curiousity? Initially you indicated that you would be happy to lynch a lurker, I assume that is still what you are planning to do. If a no lynch was an option where do you stand? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I notice you haven't thrown your vote anywhere yet, do you have any candidates in mind at this stage? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I did change my stance along the way there, that much is evident. Initially I did not really consider no lynch as an option. Most games where a no lynch is allowed they typically state such in the rules. I know I saw a game which had that noted in the rules, for example this game. + Show Spoiler + Voting rules: 6. Voting is mandatory. You may (NOT) abstain. If a no Lynch is reached, everyone must still have casted a vote (you can vote for ##Vote: No-Lynch) I don't see what's wrong with wanting some more activity and posting from people before forming such an important decision. I still stand by what I said. If a no lynch is an option it is the option I would prefer. In the alternative a lurker would be acceptable assuming we can't find a suitable suspect. I would also like to add, that although the discussion regarding lynch v no lynch may not mean anything if indeed you cannot vote for a no lynch. It does however provide the opportunity for people to comment and add their perspective as to what they feel about the policy. This provides us with information which we can analyse nd to help show the motivation and logic behind their arguements. So it is far from fruitless. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I will assume that is in regards to the no lynch issues? If so tell us what about the no lynch you don't like? I know you only replaced in recently, but you haven't really contributed except for a hello post and a couple of one-liners. If it is not in regards to the no lynch, who are you liking less and why? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I have reviewed Solohan's first couple of posts a couple times, and I honestly don't find anything nearly as much of an eyebrow raiser as what you mentioned in your first post. So I must say I am quite keen to see what you have picked up that I have missed. In reference to what I find strange about your first post is simply; On April 14 2012 23:02 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, thank god, not mafia :D I want to point something out. Note how both The Leader of the Town and Jitsu The Mafia Specialist died? Thats what we want here. Take someone down with you if you are a townie. Dont die in vain, at least post your thoughts first. I have the utmost confidence in our abilities as a town together to kill the mafia. BUT, until we get the town together, we will suck. So play a team game. Dont decide *SCREW EVERYONE ELSE, i understand exactly whats happening." So lets get this started. I don't really know who you are trying to convince with that statement. In my opinion you are doing enough for the town for me to believe you are more likely town than Mafia. I like your activity and the pressure voting you applied early to try and spark some activity. So I just don't understand why you said that. Judging by your posting it's not like you needed too. Just some food for thought. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I think your case against Nova makes sense. I too got an early initial impression that he was a bit weird. What really stuck with me is obviously the same thing I pointed out in my earlier post, his statement of; Okay, thank god, not mafia :D I didn't actually read through the first couple of pages prior to the game starting so I missed the phrase you quoted about him being terrible town, as I signed up on Page 3. I do like the fact that he tried to pressure vote some people into contributing, but that in itself is not a town nor mafia tell. Gathering more contributions at such an early stage of the game just simply helps set the game up and could be done by either side. The content in his initial posts where laden with a decent amount of fluff. In regards to your reads on Crossfire99 and Lazermonkey I also have them trending towards Mafia on my notes, but at this stage those notes are far from conclusive. Of the two I think Lazermonkey raises more red flags. I will briefly summarise what I have noticed from him so far; Opinions on Lazermonkey's Play In his initial post his very first statement reads; On April 14 2012 23:38 Lazermonkey wrote: Sup everyone! So I'm kinda noob at this atm (...) So before contributing or anything else he immediately establishes the fact he is a 'noob'. Being that this is a Newbie Mafia game this would seem like a fairly easy assumption to make and apply to all the players. So why is there the need to state this? I don't think this is really relevant to mention as a townie, and would be mentioned more by someone who is trying to set up a way out or an excuse for any decisions or actions made during the game. Which to me is something a mafia would want to do more so than a townie. His next several posts all include quotes and statements from Nova_Terra, while this could possibly be due to his activity and the sheer volume of Nova's posts. On all three counts he simply agrees with the posts and adds a little fluff here and there to round out the posts, like encouraging people to post stating the current game situation etc. + Show Spoiler + On April 15 2012 01:00 Lazermonkey wrote: True, tho I added that I'd rather lynch someone in order to archive information than just some random lurker. And besides there really isn't much to discuss yet. On April 15 2012 15:31 Lazermonkey wrote: Morning EU-budds! People really need to start posting now, it's been almost 24 h since the day post came up, and we still only got ~2 pages of posts during that time. I think it's a decent idea to start pressuring era now, however if he doesn't show up at all I guess he will be replaced anyway. Therefore we don't need to care to much about it as of now. On April 15 2012 17:12 Lazermonkey wrote: I agree with you(Nova) on Solohan, but I think it will be hard de determ whether that is due to him being town and expressing himself the right way or if he is actuall scum. I also think that it is time for Macheji to step up a bit more. He has posted 4 posts so far, but all of them have been very short and havn't added anything useful yet. He states he is suspicious of Solohan50, who at the moment is lurking. But his early opinions seem to just line up quite nicely with Nova without really adding anything else of his own. Nova clearly states he finds the first two posts of Solohan50's scummy, I have tried to find these tells myself to no avail so far. So maybe Lazermonkey has picked up on these as well? Or is simply agreeing with Nova who appears to be the 'town leader'. Conclusion Lazermonkey's activity has been good and he has contributed a decent amount and I get the impression that it is a bit more substance than fluff at the moment. The issues I have raised are only what have stood out for me. Clearly this is not lynch worthy and i would not push a lynch with this level of substance to a case. But I am more trying to see if anyone else shares my concerns or what their thoughts on the matter are. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
@ Pure-SC2 I probably should have included this in my last post also. But another post from Nova that is bugging me is; On April 16 2012 02:11 Nova_Terra wrote: What now? Why would i not swap off of a pressure vote when the idea was to get that person to post? are you trying to tell me i should do exactly what i did as scum last game and be like, MEH, He posted, but i want to lynch him anyway? That hardly makes sense. Also, Lynching a lurker provides benefits like being able to see who voted when, peoples stances, and more importantly it sets an expectation that people who lurk will die. as an incentive to post. There isnt positive reinforcement on this game. If you lurk, you die. if you're active, you still might die, but at least you'll be helpful to the town first. First of all I have no idea as to who this post was aimed at, maybe Therapist? But to me this post gives me a bad vibe. It seems like quite an aggressive defense (in particular the first two lines), and the tone seems that of exasperation or aggression. I don't think you mentioned the post in your case, but what kind of impression does that post leave you with? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
We clearly have a large contingent of lurkers at the moment, but I feel comfortable enough lynching Nova as I think between Pure-SC2's case and my personal impressions I would be happy with the result. ##Unvote: Macheji ##Vote: Nova_Terra Anyway 12:45am here, time for me to go to bed. Boss is out of the office for the week so should have the thread open for a decent portion of the day. Will check in on the thread every now and again. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Only just got to work and access to the thread. So I won't have time to process everything. After quickly skimming through the thread I still like my initial view on Nova. I still find you suspicious, but I can't ignore the fact that you certainly are active, and there is no time to process everything thoroughly before the end of the day. @ Nova Why is oneplus a better lynch candidate then you? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
At this point I think you have contributed enough to spare you from the Day 1 lynch. As I said I haven't had a chance to really look through the last few pages thoroughly. I still have my suspicions, but for now I might consolidate the vote on oneplus. To prevent any last minute switching. ##Unvote: Nova_Terra ##Vote: oneplus | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
The main thing I don't like is still those two posts, they just give me an uneasy feeling. You have certainly done some good work, and I like a lot of the things you have been doing in the thread. But those two posts just mean I have a heard time fully trusting you. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Sure, the two posts are; On April 14 2012 23:02 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, thank god, not mafia :D I want to point something out. Note how both The Leader of the Town and Jitsu The Mafia Specialist died? Thats what we want here. Take someone down with you if you are a townie. Dont die in vain, at least post your thoughts first. I have the utmost confidence in our abilities as a town together to kill the mafia. BUT, until we get the town together, we will suck. So play a team game. Dont decide *SCREW EVERYONE ELSE, i understand exactly whats happening." So lets get this started. On April 16 2012 02:11 Nova_Terra wrote: What now? Why would i not swap off of a pressure vote when the idea was to get that person to post? are you trying to tell me i should do exactly what i did as scum last game and be like, MEH, He posted, but i want to lynch him anyway? That hardly makes sense. Also, Lynching a lurker provides benefits like being able to see who voted when, peoples stances, and more importantly it sets an expectation that people who lurk will die. as an incentive to post. There isnt positive reinforcement on this game. If you lurk, you die. if you're active, you still might die, but at least you'll be helpful to the town first. The parts I don't like are the first statement in the first post (not mafia part) and the overal tone in the first couple sentences in the second post (the part up to "That hardly makes sense"). | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
ONEPLUS (Townie) - excuse for poor english - explanation of odds on random lynching - wants a town leader - argument with both @Nova & @Lazer - kind of OMGUS reaction to @Nova - thinks that maybe Lazer is bussing Nova - says Lazer changes his vote too sudden ** Initial post included an excuse for poor english, I really don’t like people posting excuses, especially in their opening posts, sets a bad precedent. But this excuse isn’t really related that much to gameplay so it is slightly more acceptable. Especially considering it appears english is not his primary language. ** Wants a town leader, not a huge fan of that idea, I would prefer everyone to work on their own and contribute to the towns goals as a group rather than relying on 1 figurehead to guide us around like sheep. ** Odds on random lynching, not terribly informative, anyone can do this basic math. ** Argues with @Lazer and @Nova who at that point I had scummy reads on, he does make some sense here and there but it can be hard to read and decipher at times. Forces a reaction out of both @Nova and @Lazer, claiming OMGUS for their pressure votes on him. But @oneplus had pressure votes on him from other players too, yet he only singled out @Nova and @Lazer. Thinks there is a connection between the two. But if you look @Lazer, you can see he has a town read on @Nova (prior to @Pure-SC2’s case), but i don’t know how invested into an argument you would get to protect a modest at best town read, but again that’s WIFOM. ** Thinks that @Lazer might be bussing @Nova, could be possible. States that @Lazer changed his vote too suddenly. PEOPLE THAT VOTED FOR ONEPLUS BlueyD ** From his posting history he seems to have a town read on @Nova, he has stated a few times that some of @Nova’s actions push him towards town, ie not worrying about his own safety and accusations and pressure on @Solohan. ** His lynch switch doesn’t raise significant eyebrows either. His vote would have been wasted had he not switched. If he is town he would try protect his town read (@Nova), if mafia almost anything can happen, although I imagine bussing your teammates at this stage would be retarded. Crossfire99 ** Uses the phrase ‘to save @Nova’ rather than to lynch @oneplus. To me that signals that he is leaning town on @Nova, or is at least on the same page as @Nova. @Pure-SC2 thinks they could be scum teammates, definitely a possibility. I basically came to the same conclusion in regards to the lynch so can’t be too critical. ** Should make a point of pressuring him for his point of view, he doesn’t really seem to put his ‘money’ anywhere, almost looks like he will take whatever comes his way. I certainly expect more from him if he is to remove any scum suspicions. Lazermonkey ** Seems to buddy up to @Nova, maybe he feels @Nova’s activity and pressure voting (which he states he likes) make him a townie read? This is confirmed in his post about switching his vote to Nova. @Pure-SC2 posted a good case on @Nova, which apparently was all the convincing @Lazer needed to switch. Although it’s a rather meek acceptance, slightly defends @Nova while still voting for him. Then finally says something along the lines of ‘if @Nova is townie gotta look @Pure-SC2’, counter-wagon maybe? ** Was convinced @oneplus was bad town (I think during their spat), yet is happy to vote for a bad town as opposed to anyone else. Kind of OMGUS. Nova_Terra ** Seems to be rushing some posts, I would think that is more a sign of townie-ness being unafraid to post your thoughts immediately without fear. I know when I was Mafia I was careful to review and preview my posts before submitting them. No reason to think other players wouldn’t do the same. ** Didn’t sway from his town read on @oneplus. Only switched his vote as an effort to save himself which makes sense. I like how he sticked with his read on @oneplus, It’s perfectly acceptable to vote for someone else you have a read on to save yourself. Noone is going to lie down and accept a lynch when they don’t need too. He is also clearly more active than @oneplus, so it isn’t a bad idea to keep him around. There should be more than enough posts to analyse his play on. ** After my early suspicions of @Nova, I think he did a decent job of defending himself, he threw in a few posts which were a bit un-necessary (rude, put-downs etc). He was reasonably aggressive on his defense, a few people came in to post messages of support so either a lot of people have town reads on him, or his scum team and a few sheep came in to save him. ** Says he has a town read on @Pure-SC2, I think for almost anyone in the thread he is the most obvious town read. Would be very shocked if he were to flip Mafia at this point, however it is still early. @Nova was probably the easiest target due to his excessive posting. I wouldn’t think someone as Mafia would give a town read on someone who posted a good case on them, but that is simply WIFOM and nothing more at this stage. Therapist ** Softly defends @Nova, saying that it’s a bandwagon that is forming. There were a reasonble number of people around at the time, if it was truely an easy bandwagon, why did more people not jump on? Several have town reads on @Nova, or at least state as much (@Crossfire & @BlueyD, @Lazer initially also, prior to @Pure-SC2’s case), his soft defense would suggest that he has either a town read on @Nova or is possibly a teammate? ** Doesn’t see a reason to bandwagon @Nova, but is willing to basically bandwagon @oneplus. Seems slightly hypocritical, but it could simply be because he has a town read on @Nova. Need more information. Although his vote did not end on oneplus I will also include my noted on TheRavensName, because he switched late TheRavensName ** Seems really indecisive, not contributing much in terms of post quantity or quality ** Early on states he has no issue with @Pure-SC2’s case, then @Pure-SC2’s post about the scumslip convinces him, then when he changes his vote to @Nova he isn’t sure about Pure-SC2 again. ** Throws his suspicions around without really providing any information why, doesn’t provide any reads either. ** Last minute of the oneplus lynch he switches off, this change of vote made absolutely no difference at all to the outcome, did it with 15mins to spare. To me that seems to indicate him trying to distance himself from the lynch target. Does he maybe know something we don’t? Possible, but certainly need more information and activity to determine whether this is the case. CONCLUSION I know this is a lot of information to digest and I am not sure how much of it people will agree or disagree with. In case I can't get online prior to the deadline tomorrow here is the link. Also included in this mess if you have a look at my notes about @Nova_Terra it states in their why I was willing to take my vote off him to an extent. I will also briefly explain again here why I changed. Nova_Terra has by far posted the most content in the thread so far, that's easy to see. At the time of the vote, I didn't have the time to thoroughly analyse roughly pages 10-14 prior to the lynch deadline. I skimmed through and noticed Nova_Terra had been incredibly active during this time so i chose to spare him so i could read through his posts to see what I thought of him. As you can see from my notes he is slowly erasing my earlier doubts about him. I am not yet willing to 'confirm him town' but he is trending that way. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Lurking particularly badly - Macheji - Solohan50 Lurking but posting enough to get by - Therapist - TheRavensName Contributing, but want more - BlueyD - Lorant Crossfire dying doesn't surprise me all that much, I was thinking that Mafia would probably target either a lurker, Pure-SC2, Nova_Terra or possibly myself. Why did I not find his death surprising? Crossfire had been lurking fairly hard to start the game, he was unwilling to take a stand on anything really. His posts were wishy-washy-ish. Suspected a few people here and there but never built a solid case, defended himself from Lorant a little bit, although he wasn't in significant danger. All this gives the impression that he wasn't really trying to ruffle any feathers and fly beneath the radar. Now in my mind, when I think about who could possibly have those motivations, it would either be a Blue or a Mafia. As it turns out Crossfire was a Vigilante, now why does this make him a good target? Easy, the Mafia are all well aware of who each other are, and I would imagine either 1-2 would be lurking trying to avoid as much responsibility and suspicion as possible. So for them to shoot into the Lurkers, I figure the odds are they will either pick off a dis-interested townie or a blue trying to hide, neither of which are a bad result for Mafia. This is why I think we really really need to start pushing these lurkers to step up and take some responsibility, yes this is still early days. But we have had like 80hours to contribute, that's over three days and some people have posted less than 10 times. That is pathetic, if you are town what reason do you have for trying to blend into the background and contribute absolutely nothing? I honestly can't find any. My Proposal I think we should seriously consider lynching into this group of lurkers. At the moment I still think @Lazermonkey will be a good lynch, but he will be around the day after also. And the longer we let these lurkers contribute absolutely nothing towards the town's success the more detrimental it will be. If it comes to Day 3 and we still have people barely contributing, you are fast approaching the point where you have to lynch right or we lose. Feedback Please note, this is just my observations of where we currently stand, I would really appreciate some feedback and opinions of what you guys think. Clearly the fact that we have a lurker problem is not really in dispute. I admit this is a bit of a radical plan, but I think if we can fix the lurker problem sooner rather than later, we will have more posts to analyse from which we can hopefully pick up information from. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Thanks for providing some input on my suggestion, still want to hear from others as well. Of the lurkers I reckon either Solohan50 or TheRavensName would be the ones I am most concerned with, and I could quite possibly form a case against both that I would be happy enough to present, but at this stage I am not sure how wise it would be to post cases for multiple individuals, we should probably try come to a unified conclusion. Currently I do still have Lazermonkey as my strongest scum read, so I would be more than happy to post my case on him and also push the lynch in that direction. But at this stage i feel we really need to motivate the lurkers to contribute. Lynching one provided the case is solid I think would accomplish this fairly well. On Lorant Based on Day 1, I was happy to read him as leaning town, but some of his more recent posts are starting to push me away from that direction. One of the issues is the point you raised, he pushes everyone to post some analysis prior to daybreak here. On April 18 2012 05:29 Lorant wrote: Post what you'd like others to hear in case you die. Says he will go off and prepare his statement. On April 18 2012 06:48 Lorant wrote: A little disturbance in eloquence there but it's alright, now I'll leave you talking to yourself while I'm preparing for my statement. Then returns at the deadline to post a playlist. So he was there and I personally haven't looked at the playlist, but I imagine it would have taken a similar amount of time to make as posting some brief thoughts on his reads. To have such dis-interest in providing anything prior to the deadline, I can't help but get the impression he either knew he was safe, or simply doesn't care about the town. Either of those outcomes is a problem. If he posted that for any other reason I would really love to hear it. 'The Council' Several people have mentioned their dis-approval of this idea, I personally am not terribly keen on the idea either. It gives me the impression of a stalling tactic a way to waste time and discussion, and to that extent I think it has succeeded. In amongst the rubbish, he does raise some points which I find reasonable; - Establishing order as he puts it, to me means a good atmosphere. Yeah sure, that's fine. - The idea of a council as far as a group of people contributing to the construction and refinement of a case on a possible lynch target, that is also fine. - Arbitrarily assigning players onto said council? That's where it starts to get a bit stupid again. @ BlueyD, about Nova_Terra I notice you had a town read on Nova early in the game, you stated as much and provided some defense for him when he was a lynch target. I myself am starting to lean towards Nova_Terra being more town than Mafia. I just want to know, has your opinion changed? I have in my notes that you believe one of either @Lazer or @Nova is mafia but not both. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I agree it was good to see Solohan's thoughts, but he is basically coming in, posting enough to avoid suspicion and appear he is contributing then disappearing into the shadows again. Just like many of the other lurkers. This is the main problem I have with them. I really do believe that there is at least one, possibly two mafia just hiding amongst the lurkers. Surely after the volume of posts in the thread there should be more than information to make a case on anyone (except Macheji who has posted so little he needs to be pressured), whether that case be town or mafia. Before the end of the day I want to see these people contributing. If you are town there is zero reason to not contribute something, it doesn't matter if you get the wrong read, it's your logic and reasoning that we want. I agree that TheRavensName is probably the most suspicious, but that is also because he has posted more than most of the other lurkers. That is precisely the reason they are lurking. They don't want to incriminate themselves. At some point we are going to have to lynch into the lurkers. But I do appreciate the fact that you think we need a solid case before we do so, I completely understand and think the same. As stated earlier, I still think Lazermonkey is my favourite lynch target. Would like to see something from the other people too. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
2nd Para should be 'more than enough information to make a case' | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
You say you suspect Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey. Can you please provide a case for both or either one of them? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
You still around? If so you around for much longer, or you about to head out? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
MY CASE ON MACHEJI Macheji’s Filter – Current Game Comparison to his only prior TL Mafia Game (‘Meta’ analysis) Here is the filter from Macheji’s other previous Mafia game on Team Liquid, Bastard Mafia. Now given that we are all fairly new and still learning I do not really want to put too much stock into ‘meta’ analysis based on only one past game, but from just having a quick glance at the two I can notice a distinct difference between the two. Currently in this game Macheji is not really contributing all that much information at all and lurking fairly extensively, however in Bastard Mafia in which his role was a Bodyguard, you can see his is posting more in terms of content in each post. And looking at the timestamps you can see that both games have spanned a similar length of time. Now onto the more relevant performance in this game In the early portion of the game it is very challenging to present any real read on Macheji simply because his lack of activity prevents any such analysis from occurring. Upon his return he provides a reason for his absence, don’t have a problem with that. He states he doesn’t want to post during the night for fear of being killed here; On April 17 2012 09:46 Macheji wrote: Fine, i'll post my reasons for the vote. Didn't really want to because the night is comming and the last time i accused somebody at the start of the night i got killed.(...) He contributes his preliminary thoughts anyway, this is his first post of any real substance. He lays his suspicions towards Nova_Terra, which at that point in time was probably the easiest target, I don’t think this means too much at this point in the game as his opinions seemed to support his train of thought. He then declares 72hrs prior to the next lynch; On April 17 2012 09:46 Macheji wrote: Now, that was the reasoning behind my vote. But now that i've read your case-post i am alot more sure of my vote. If i don't die tonight, i am voting for him again. Clearly he has a scum read on @Nova_Terra, but being willing to tunnel Nova_Terra before the day even breaks is a bit of a red flag to me. It’s good that he seems to be convinced of his read, but don’t just blindly tunnel someone, provide us with some more information as to why you are making this decision. A minor grievance, but I do not like this statement either; On April 18 2012 20:59 Macheji wrote: Oh man, 9 pages in and i have a full paper of notes. Most of them on Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey. I saw an obvious connection between the two of them. Share briefly with Pure-Sc2 , but tbh i find Pure-SC2 very ''town'' atm , not sure what that was about ( ganging on solohan w/o any evidence ) . I have to decide if i should make a list with everybody or just post my scum conclusion and post a case vs 1,2 people. What do you guys prefer ? If you are town, surely you don’t need to be told what to contribute to discussion, everything is all laid out in the thread. Post any thoughts and analysis that you believe will assist the town in winning the game. The statement gives me an impression of ‘I want to do enough to be ok’. Macheji’s big post about his reads On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote: I'm dizzy after the first 10 pages so i'll stop here for the moment. I may come back later today to finish and make a new post. So far. + = town - = mafia Daymor (+/--)-> In the start he favored both no-lynching / Lynching me. At the moment , lynching me gave no information. So he was ''divided'' between getting no info from a no-lynch to lynching the guy whos death would bring the less info(-). Also, from what i've seen, i've got the impresion he is a very guilable, easily to be impressed person that changes mind-stances often(+/-). Lorant ( +/--- )-> Gave a good very good town advice in the start ( the journal thing ) +. Proved to be a smurf of fourface that ''likes to do crazy things so town does not think he is mafia'' -> Creates this thing called The Coucil of Four ( crazy thing -- )to rise against Nova_Terra but dosn't really accuse him of anything, this seems a bit dubious , like a false conflict ( - ) Crossfire ( ++ )-> I know now he's dead, bear with me ( did not know the name of the guy that got killed last night when i made this so that i don't get subjective)... Made a post regarding the fact that people , especially blues will have no info if there is a no-lynch , this was a giveaway for me ( ++ ) NovaTerra (++/--------)> oh man, oh man... .... Ok here we go. Accuses Solohan of appology post -> makes appology post moments later ( --- ). Made alot of accusations w/o arguments(-)(ex vs solohan, therapist ). Spamming, atleast 6 posts in the first 7 pages saying the same thing(-). From page 8, 18:25, when he is beeing accused he start to seem very troubled, he makes post-after-post, very twitchy. He goes crazy about him beeing the most active person. He gets even more crazy when someone mentions him beeing in the same team with Lazer.At first it seemed like an ok reaction, the guy was mad because he was wrongfully accused, but why get even more stirred up when beeing named a teammate of Lazer, that's something kinda specific to be generally mad against. Also, when Oneplus attack him he tells him he is digging his own grave, he was so sure about it, like he had some power the rest of us do not. Also when Oneplus attacks him in one post he says he is not impressed... he's not impressed of what ? When someone innocent is beeing accused of something, does it ever occure to him to say that he is not impressed with the case against him ? I am acc thinking of those real-life gangsters or white-collar criminals that laugh on the tv when they are beeing accused. ( -- ) . In another post he is accusing bandwaggoning when people started voting for him, but he had no problem with people bandwaggoning when there were like 4 voting me for beeing inactive or for 4 more to vote for oneplus when he got killed. ( - ) . He is by far the most frequent poster ( ++ ), but his posts lack any real information ( already rated this ) . Also it's clear in his mind that mafias are people that generaly don't want attention, so he may meta this and try to hide the poop in plain sight. He even says at a point that '' you do not vote for an active thought player for info'' when someone suggested his lynch in order to get information. Lazermonkey ( ---- ) > Agrees with Nova_Terra on solahan beeing scummy even tho there were 0 arguments Why ? ( - ) Calls therapist scum again w/o evidence Votes for me -> Side with N_T vs oneplus -> is accused on multiple front of mafiateam with N_T-> says he is conviced oneplus is town -> Votes N_T without revealing to much -> In the end votes oneplus ( --- ) Therapist ++ > I only see i noted that he gave me the impression that he really does not want a misslynch ( ++ ) TheRavensname ( +/- ) > a bit wierd that at page 6 he accuses Nova_Terra of beeing to lynch happy ( +/-). 1 hour later he votes me and Nova_Terra + Lazermonkey ( the ''double'' at that point) soon fallow. Pure-SC2 ( +++/-- ) At a moment he accused Solahan for beeing a scum, fallowing N_T and LM, when there were no arguments or evidence. THe only thing i noticed about Solahan until that post was that he was a bot noobish at this game. Later on he goes after oneplus because he said N_T and LM are scummy without any arguments/evidence. ( -- ) But, to be honest Pure-SC2 has made alot of valuable posts since then. I found them clear, argumented, transparent and it seemed to me like he added alot to the game ( +++ ) . Still the mark of doubt remains. In this post I find a few things that concern me when I read through, apart from the inconsistency in terms of how he is dishing out his reads, the main one I note is Therapist, who he gives a town/leaning town read to because he stated he didn’t want to mislynch. Personally I don’t think this statement is any kind of tell. Stating you don’t want to mislynch isn’t difficult and cannot be proven false either, it’s a no risk statement in my opinion. His two strongest scum reads are Lazermonkey and Nova_Terra, while not terribly surprising as both have copped their fair amount of suspicion. It almost seems like the easy way out to me, there has been a substantial amount posted in regards to why both are found to be suspicious. As such the whole post really seems like more of a summary of the current position rather than anything that is distinctly his, with the exception of a few parts in his review of Nova_Terra. Why omit BlueyD and Solohan50 from the analysis? I am not sure whether this means anything or not, I wouldn’t mind some opinions on this matter. But it certainly does seem a bit strange to me, he posts a few notes on every player except these two and oneplus who was the victim of the first lynch. Alarm Bells On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote: NovaTerra (++/--------)> (...)He goes crazy about him beeing the most active person. He gets even more crazy when someone mentions him beeing in the same team with Lazer.At first it seemed like an ok reaction, the guy was mad because he was wrongfully accused, (...) On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote: NovaTerra (++/--------)> (...) Also when Oneplus attacks him in one post he says he is not impressed... he's not impressed of what ? When someone innocent is beeing accused of something, does it ever occure to him to say that he is not impressed with the case against him ? (...) So in his case against Nova_Terra, not once but twice does he briefly mention Nova_Terra’s innocence or that fact he is being wrongfully accused. The only people who know of Nova_Terra’s innocence are Mafia & Nova_Terra. It could possibly mean nothing, but the fact that he is essentially calling his strongest scum read ‘innocent’ is quite alarming. While I appreciate that he has stepped up and provided with some of his thoughts, most are in a heavily summarised manner and I do not feel they add too much insight except maybe his post on Nova_Terra. Summary I admit, this was a fairly hard case to build due largely to not having much content with which to work.I would be happy to lynch Macheji based off this information as between not contributing and the alarm bells in regards to his case against Nova_Terra I feel comfortable enough sticking with it. Please express your thoughts on this case, I know it may be a little thin In the meantime ##Vote: Macheji | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
For clarification purposes yes I did vote for oneplus on the day one lynch, my reasons are included in that huge post in regards to lynch analysis, mainly in the @Nova_Terra section if you actually read it. But to summarise, I jumped on shortly before the deadline reviewed the thread and noticed Nova_Terra had made a significant number of posts and i did not have the time to review and analyse everything. In comparison oneplus did not make nearly as many posts, so I decided to take my vote off Nova_Terra as I value someone who is actively contributing posts as that helps analysis etc significantly more than someone who doesn't provide much. @Pure-SC2 - I agree the case is a bit of a stretch, to the extent that it encouraged Macheji to post I am happy. Macheji is not my strongest scum read, nor do I believe the case was strong enough to lead a lynch, so I do plan on ending the day with my vote on someone else. I think at least a couple hours before the lynch we should try to lock in a solid lynch target. Lazermonkey has been the person I have had the strongest scum read on for the last couple of days. I haven't really had the chance to look at his most recent post, but he is probably the candidate that I would most like to lynch. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
@Lorant - In regards to your question about sparing Nova_Terra from the lynch and my position after the fact. I personally did not have a solid read on oneplus at the time, but looking back on it the fact that he was willing to stick his neck out is probably something I should have picked up on. I do think that Nova did a decent job of defending himself, the one thing I got from it is he is at least invested in the game, I saw less of that from oneplus. Your case on Pure-SC2 Similar to BlueyD's perspective I don't really find your case terribly convincing, there are a few issues I have with your case and your more recent play, I don't intend to turn it into a case at the moment, but I will list a few of the bigger things that I find concerning; + Show Spoiler + On April 16 2012 21:16 Lorant wrote: @Pure-SC2 in response to your case on Nova. We'll have to see what his suspicion of solohan is, but I'd still like Crossfire to answer the same question .. preferably before Nova. If crossfire has an argument to offer Nova will just have to find another one. ..noted, yes that was bad. It pains me to say this but Nova has outlasted his use to town already. He did good with the voting (although that was symbolic, not sure if it had any palpable effect) and he has shown us an anti-example of how a leader should not act. I doubt we can expect him to make substance-packed, easy to follow cases but I would love to be positively surprised. On April 19 2012 06:21 Lorant wrote: My gut feeling basically is that I'm scared. I'm pretty scared that Pure-SC2 is playing good scum while Nova is bad scum. If so, they tried to control the thread from the very beginning and establish Nova as leader and it would've worked because Nova could've posted Pure's observation/analysis making him look capable. Pure's case on Nova was trivial and he would've switched his vote but oneplus already had 6 votes and Nova only 4. After Raven switched it would've been way to scummy for Pure to switch too. Now what's happening is that Pure is the capable one and Nova might be covering his back like a dog, grunting at everyone who even considers his strongest town read scummy. I don't know which is worse (hard to counter), this or a leader Nova with Pure's posting. So this is basically what I'm afraid of. Nothing more, nothing less. Irrational .. maybe Oh and talking about Nova bulldogging for Pure. Check out how he's on my ass after I say Pure is scummy. He doesn't even care why he just wants to take me apart with the council stuff and whatnot. 1) Initially, I get the impression that you are at least somewhat agreeable to Pure's case, you don't really ever state you thought it was good or anything. But you state that Nova_Terra 'has outlived his usefulness' as you put it, so a similar opinion is certainly there. Between the two posts, I think it's fairly clear you haven't changed your position in regards to Nova_Terra, but you have in regards to your perception of Pure's case, it went from a more neutral stance to being 'trivial'. Nowhere in that first post in response to Pure's case could I find a solid stance on it either way. So I say neutral because you have come to the same conclusion. 2) In reference to your case against Pure-SC2, this part I don't think contributes anything towards your argument or provide a solid reason why he should be lynched; On April 19 2012 06:21 Lorant wrote: My gut feeling basically is that I'm scared. I'm pretty scared that Pure-SC2 is playing good scum while Nova is bad scum. If so, they tried to control the thread from the very beginning and establish Nova as leader and it would've worked because Nova could've posted Pure's observation/analysis making him look capable. Pure's case on Nova was trivial and he would've switched his vote but oneplus already had 6 votes and Nova only 4. After Raven switched it would've been way to scummy for Pure to switch too. Now what's happening is that Pure is the capable one and Nova might be covering his back like a dog, grunting at everyone who even considers his strongest town read scummy. I don't know which is worse (hard to counter), this or a leader Nova with Pure's posting. So this is basically what I'm afraid of. Nothing more, nothing less. Irrational .. maybe This section starts by stating your gut feeling, and that you are scared. Then to support this statement instead of really introducing anything I would consider tangible you introduce a big WIFOM and speculation basically stating 'if this, then that' etc. Your perspective is certainly vastly different to mine, but I have a hard time taking that seriously when you support the argument with nothing tangible other than speculation and what essentially amounts to fear-mongering. As for today's vote I still have a town read on Pure, and Lorant's case doesn't really change that perspective at all. My strongest scum read is still Lazermonkey. His more recent posts I feel have been better, but I still trust my earlier opinions on him from this post. So I am going to put my vote on Lazermonkey. ##Unvote:Macheji ##Vote:Lazermonkey | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Think I screwed up the spacing on my voting ##Unvote: Macheji ##Vote: Lazermonkey | ||
Daymor
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Can we get a final vote tally at some point from the mods? Did he PM a vote or is he getting a warning/modkill for not voting? | ||
Daymor
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Should probably green the question. Can we get a final vote tally from the Mods? What happened with TheRavensName's vote? | ||
Daymor
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Daymor
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You getting modkilled will end the game now, if my read is right. | ||
Daymor
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Daymor
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Daymor
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Daymor
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You reasonably up to date with the thread? | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
So there is a decent chance you just get a warning, so I might cya round later in the game. For now I am going to go have my lunch, getting hungry. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
So I was tossing up between posting my google doc or trying to summarise everything within 30mins. So I decided to post my link before I went to bed. Then when the deadline got extended, well yeah. I probably didn't need to post the whole doc because I could have summarised it. But yeah in all honesty I am scratching my head as to what to do now. Mislynch and we pretty much lose. Anyway here are some quick thoughts, obviously I have a town read on Pure-SC2, so with the result of the lynch as it stands, the two candidates in my mind are two townies. So Mafia have no need to be worried at all. So therefore similar to you I think 1 may be on Lazermonkey because a lot of people thought he has scummy tendencies, so it would be easy to blend in. Then the rest would be scattered, and then from there you can't really do too much more. It's not exactly credible in the first place anyway, since it's purely speculation and WIFOM. But those are my thoughts anyway. It seems Newbie Town's always have issues anyway. I was reading up on the game prior to this one, The VIII one, I think it was Mattchew who was a coach said a lot of newbie town fall into the confirmation bias trap. They have a read, stick to it just to see if they are right or not. I thought it was an interesting bit of insight and most certainly is true of me. I had a scum read on Lazer and wanted to see his flip, and when I did my heart just sank, just sat there shaking my head. It's frustrating, because I did re-read his filter just 1hr or so before the lynch and the thinks I picked up early on didn't concern me as much any more and I started to get a slight impression he may be town. But my options where lynch him who I at least had suspicions against or lynch you who I am about the only read I am convinced of. Anyway that's enough for a late night rambling. Time for bed. | ||
Daymor
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Daymor
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I think the mafia kind of have it easy in Newbie games aye. Because by it's very nature there are a handful of dumb decisions made, and they only have to maybe slip in for a couple seconds, bring what they want back into the discussion and sit back and let town go the wrong way. So I can definitely see them sitting back and not really having much to do at all. But given our current situation, where we essentially must lynch scum or lose. We can't really go after the lurkers, because the risk of missing is huge because we don't have much on them (I think about 4 or so people fall into this category). That leaves us with a tiny pool of players that are contributing on a level that allows us to form solid reads. I don't think all 3 scum would be lurking (although it is possible). So I definitely think we have a huge task ahead of us. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Daymor
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Maybe I should just go to bed and clear my head a bit. Just frustrating, because even with all the effort i have tried to put in I still haven't really got anywhere. | ||
Daymor
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Daymor
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Last words; GL Town you are gunna need it. | ||
Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Was way off on some of my reads. Just looking at the wrong things I guess. Guess it's just one of those things that comes with experience, was a interesting experience no doubt. But my time zone would make it difficult to play in any more I think. Knowing what I know now though, if I do ever play again. Definitely gunna be pushing those lurkers lynches. Jesus Christ. | ||
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