|
On May 07 2012 21:19 Gummy wrote: If anybody is hesitant about "WHAT IF WE LYNCH THE DETECTIVE" just remember that at this point in the game all mislynches are equivalent. If we happen to lynch the detective, the detective being a townie, we lose just the same as if we lynched any other innocent townie. Actually Mafia are allowed to communicate among themselves, so he might not be a power role and, instead, is just using information gained from his partner in crime. Nonetheless I believe there is a special role and that the special role is a rolecop.
|
Another point. People keep discounting my math regarding probabilities as to the presence of roles. These roles are in fact generated by random numbers. Matt picked out the roles based on those generated here
|
On May 07 2012 20:45 Ange777 wrote: @Gummy: It's not being wrong about you but being wrong about the next lynch that would make us lose. Even without Tofu confirming you mafia, your word is the least credible.
##Vote: Gummy
My guess for the last mafia is Aces or Dahdum as well. Having Gummy very actively trying to confuse town and the other mafia member somehow lurking and hidden seems like a good strategy. Tofu and Paschl are both too active and pro town for that.
I suggest Tofu to check Aces or Dahdum the following night. None of them were very active in this game so it's hard to guess. I'll check their filter later once more. If Tofu can get the crucial bit of information there will be a good chance for us to win this game. Thanks for identifying yourself as the second mafia.
|
There is no additional lynch. As it stands it is 4-2. After lynching me it will be 3-2. After tonight it will be 2-2.
Your insistence, despite my very clear and repeated warnings that this is the last night make you very obviously scum.
|
Tofu and Ange.... just when you think you have it in the bag, you get careless
WAKE UP ALL INACTIVES AND VOTE TOFU!
|
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA I AM THE BEST MAFIA PLAYER EVER!
|
Lol. You would rather lose than let the facts inform you... Oh well :p
|
You are way too emotional. I'm an idiot. Just try to win please
|
So you're reason for voting me is that I'm a terrible townie. If you're really going to vote me, can I trouble you to make a case behind your vote? If you are wrong, you lose.
|
It is up to you. At this point in the game if the two mafia vote together + you, it is instant G_G in the scum's favor.
|
On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote:@Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? Show nested quote +On May 06 2012 02:46 Gummy wrote: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch.
There's no point in arguing my case further. It's sound, but you have the votes you need. No logic or reason will sway a stubborn heart like Paschl's.
Well played you and tofu
|
Well, there's quite a bit of time left to change Paschl's mind. Out of game favors, Paschl? Here's a poem to get you to reconsider.
Paschl is an awesome guy His smile is sweet, his hair is fly. Hockey is his sport of choice. His ride is cooler than a 'Royce.
Paschl is my favorite man I am but his biggest fan! How very cool a man is he Oh Paschl, dear, I pray to thee
Change your vote! You are the key! ( to the town's victory )
|
While I'm at it, since XIII hasn't started yet, here's some rebuttals (directed at the rest of the town).
On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote:@Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Yes, and for good reason Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. Read his good-bye post one more time if you don't think that's good enough reason to risk the no-lynch I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. The only thing that would prove me wrong or scummy is if he flipped medic. My case was that either he was scum, or that he was playing in such a way that would be hurting the town. It turned out, unfortunately for us, to be the latter. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. If I were Mafia, as Tofu and Ange are, I would be all in favor of getting rid of the innocent townie. Even better if it's a medic. I could say the same thing I'm saying to you now and just say "I wasn't online for his last post." But since I did not do that, you should take it to mean that I really did believe in his innocence and wanted to protect him for the sake of the town. This is called the intuitive criterion.During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Of course it is. I wanted you to think, as you now do, that you have a clear and simple path to victory. If you got rid of a vanilla townie during the night and then used my apparent confession to lynch me during the day, the game would be the scum's. You two have basically revealed yourselves to be scum based on the apparent desperation and heavy rhetoric in your arguments, but I'm not really sure you care anymore since you have the votes you need to win, x_x. Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? My vote was on dahdum, before I refreshed the page and noticed Firm's accusation of me based on an alleged read (the first time I thought he was blindly echoing paschl's vote). Once I noticed he was lying about his read, and could not come up with a justifiable townsperson's rationale for lying about the read, I concluded that he must be Mafia. My accusation of you, ange, is based on your echoing his sentiment in this post, again, without any real substance. Furthermore, you posted after Claw's goodbye vote, yet you did not retract your vote as I did.Show nested quote +On May 06 2012 02:46 Gummy wrote: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum.
Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Night play is a very different beast from day play. I pretended to be scum so as to have one last chance to make the case that I'm making before the town today, with the egocentric mentality that I would notice something that the inactive townies might not. Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch. Seeing as I'm the medic, lynching me makes it 3 townies - 2 mafia. Tonight, you win, ange!
|
Gosh, why am I such a tryhard in a game when the townies consist of a troll, a proud and upstanding (but stubborn) hunk of a man, and a bunch of inactives.
|
to put it simply, I don't have enough information about dahdum to say anything regarding that. See previous post with red text for my accusation of ange.
The key reason why I'm trying to vote tofu is that a mislynch today is an autoloss.
|
Look here's my take on it:
Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town.
That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what roles might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum.
While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit.
|
Edit:On May 08 2012 03:20 Gummy wrote: Look here's my take on it:
Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town.
That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what other roles they might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum.
While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit.
|
On May 08 2012 04:13 dahdum wrote: As of now, I don't have any reason to suspect Tofu is lying. He outed himself after a double medic claim, assuming he would be protected (safe assumption) and has been forthright in his checks. I didn't like the Matriarch check but the check on Gummy is logical to me. There is only a chance of a framer + a chance they frame Gummy, and mafia/town alike will use that same defense, so playing the odds sounds right to me.
##Vote: Gummy
That's not correct. He outed himself after a single medic claim. I only questioned Claw's medic claim afterwards.
|
His outing was extremely suspect as demorcef, myself, and a number of others pointed out. Also, it seems like none of the townies really care about the outcome of this game and are voting on false beliefs or based simply on who they like.
I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over.
If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle.
|
FWIW, at this point second mafia is dahdum rather than ange. I guess it's just poorly reasoned play all around.
|
|
|
|