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On May 25 2012 02:54 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2012 00:13 Qatol wrote:On May 24 2012 17:00 Toadesstern wrote: Barundar is on the SK list himself making it pretty likely that he will indeed just flip SK and not mafia, like we already said. Hiro had a chance to flip mafia and about no chance to flip SK and Barundar had a chance to flip SK but about no chance to flip mafia.
So I'd say we're looking for a mafia and I hope my d1 read about Sandroba was right :3 Don't try to get fancy. Take the confirmed anti-town kill. It doesn't make sense to try and kill anyone other than Barundar tonight. yeah I know. I just wanted to emphasize that shooting into one of the SK targets is really bad if we are (probably) going to lynch into the SK tomorrow :p
EBWOP to make clear what I'm talking about: Obviously we shoot and RB barundar. IF that for whatever reason is not working (mafia is a RB or we have a traitor who can RB, idk) we lynch Barundar and only THEN decide what to shoot next. No shooting in other targets until we know wether Barundar flipped SK (pretty likely) or flipped mafia (pretty unlikely).
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On May 25 2012 15:49 risk.nuke wrote: I was roleblocked.
Ok, there are 3 possible Roleblockers in the game:
1)]Roleblocker: That's what misder claims to be, right? 2)Jailkeeper : That's Qatol right? 3)Traitor: that guy has a one-time roleblock
I'm saying "right?" because I'm really in a hurry right now. I need to go but this eather means Misder is lying or that we have a Traitor. I'd usually say misder claiming RB and roleblocking risk would be to stupid for mafia to make but after I saw sent flip and we're about to see barundar flip I'm not going to use that argument anymore Anyways I think a traitor is more likely although I don't know why. Sandroba still looks like a nice target for me considering his uselessness this game and how he made no sense the first couple of day and was playing against EVERYTHING he told me he likes to do as a townie in skype when he hydrad in C9++.
That being said we obviously lynch Barundar first but may as well start looking for 1 or 2 mafias around and I'm off for the next couple of hours, as mentioned.
##vote Barundar
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On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote:I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote +I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote +People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred". Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town. 1) I said I think all 3 are town reads for me. Marv and Risk because they played like a townie and Sent because his action made no sense from a mafia point of vies (just like barundars...) so yeah, I thought it's possible that all 3 are townies early on which kind of changed but since I had townreads on all 3 of them I went with the one that had the weakest townreads, which was Risk.
Also I said all the time that a 1/3 chance to hit mafia is terribly bad and that my read (Sandroba) was at LEAST 50%. So you're wrong it's a combination of both. I thought my read is WAY better than a 1/3. Check my filter before telling people I just randomly tried to not lynch into one of the 3. I said that Sandroba is a way better lynch and tried to get people on him. So that point is simply wrong, don't know if it's wrong on purpose or if you did that "case" by heart without actually checking me filter lol.
2) I would have done what I thought Risk did without voting sent. At that point in time I was hoping Risk had picked the janitor and didn't want to claim it to draw hits to himself instead of other people. So yeah if I was a Janitor in Risks position I'd definitely lie about it or at least not talk about it anymore after claiming that he / I did not follow the plan. How is that a contradiction? The reason I didn't like it was because he voted sent and I didn't believe he meant it because I gave him an about 50% to actually still have picked janitor. The reason I said a Qatol (or anyone else) lynch was about as good is because we had had a game with 1 modkilled townie, 1 SK and mafias which means a 1/3 chance to hit mafia really was a true-rnd hit, especially if you take a traitor for granted like I did. That's 6 anti towns in a 19 player setup. That IS 1/3, which was the reason I said 1/3 is not good.
3) About the Townie mindset: Qatol pointed that out when he found one of my very early posts where I ask Sandroba if he got the Mason. That was well before people knew wether or not Sandroba and I got mason. That was a trap of mine and Qatol said it's looking nice if I remember correctly.
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Summary of why not a word in Snarfs case is actually true:
+ Show Spoiler [#1] +On May 16 2012 21:01 Toadesstern wrote:Yeah Mattchew gives a bad vibe but he usually does that as far as I can see. Too early to say something about him imo. Will comment on him the next 48-ish hours. Risk has basicly claimed traitor with his most reason post. Show nested quote +On May 16 2012 20:13 risk.nuke wrote: So many plans, I'm going to think on this. I may or may not follow them. I may or may not tell you if I decide to follow them. Honestly though, your arguments arent nearly as persuasive as you think they are. Because the only reason to think of "town could lose before d3" as a not persuasive argument is if you are not town or if you are considering to pick Traitor. Not sure if Risk is smart enough to do that on purpose as a townie to lure mafias into picking Janitor when he really never considered to pick something else and only wanted to look like he is considering something else. Also take a look at how cocky he makes that sound. So really he either is a genius town right now who tries his best at wifom and uses fake-emotions on purpose to screw with mafia or he's mafia himself / willing to play mafia. Sandroba is usually a really smart man. A really really smart man. He destroys mafia within 2 cycles of a game or even within the first.That's the usual Sandroba So far what I saw from him pregame wasn't that smart as all because frankly he should have realized that making sure CPR is not in mafia hands has to be the #1 priority to at least have a chance as town. So those 2 are my biggest problem right now. Fancy conclusionSandroba looks really bad imo Risk either looks incredible good or incredible bad. Not sure which one but there's pretty much nothing inbetween. Prepost Edit: Oh and yeah. I said the rolecop looks more like a mafia role in this setup but given the situation I'd love a town rolecop to figure things out right now. In short: Not sure what to make of risk, either good looking or bad looking at that point, it turned into good looking later on. The important thing though is that I said Sandroba is my main mafia read and already gave him a somewhat good chance to flip mafia.
+ Show Spoiler [#2] +On May 17 2012 01:15 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 01:11 deconduo wrote:On May 17 2012 01:07 Toadesstern wrote:On May 17 2012 01:03 deconduo wrote: I just realised it would be suicide for me or risk to pick traitor. 3rd pick RNGing between CPR/Janitor stops us from doing so as well as stopping us dropping the roles down. I hadn't really planned to take it, but its good that its definitely not an option now I suppose. exactly. If #3 is something other than VT we lynch into #1 or #2, depending on wether the coinflip made him pick CPR or janitor. So again, I really don't have a problem with talking about why traitor is a possibilty for both you and Risk, because we've got shitloads of reasons for you not to pick that will get both of you instalynched if you decide not to stick with the plan :p Yeah and so the only reasons for risk not to want the plan to succeed are: -He's town that wants to take traitor safely -He's scum that wants to be able to use janitor without getting lynched -He's SK that wants a better role than janitor or he's a townie trying to look like that and therefore making every other townie not choose traitor because he "is" already traitor. I don't care about his alignment, the moment we know he's not a janitor we lynch him and that's about him. No rolecop needed, no thing. It won't get any clearer. In short: Me telling that I think Risk has a good chance to flip town and that decunduos post is missing important points. (take into consideration, still pre-day1 and I was mad at risk at that point in time)
+ Show Spoiler [#3] +On May 17 2012 10:30 Toadesstern wrote: That apparently makes Sandroba look way better considering it's a GM game. Unless GM isn't ranking Sandro as a vet at all if he get's to be mafia.
But that sounds really far fetched so I'm just going to assume I was wrong on Sandroba right now. In short: I still think Sandroba looks incredible bad but the decunduo flip made me rethink because usually GM doesn't rng the alignment as far as I know. I checked the OP later on and found him stating that he DID rng them, so I ignored that "conclusion" as it was wrong, but you can see I still think Sandroba is looking incredible bad or else I wouldn't say he's looking better if there was no reason to doubt him in the first place.
+ Show Spoiler [#4] +On May 18 2012 03:47 Toadesstern wrote: Ok summary: We had a nice plan to deny mafia CPR although we have a dead mafia which is awesome, mafia probably still has the CPR and we don't know WHERE.
place 2, 3 and 4 all failed to do what they were supposed to do because although they all were fine with it before alignment went out. Memo for myself: Next time suggest #1-4 CPR, #5-8 Janitor
That being said I like Qatol but I'm not really convinced by the case. Do you have someone else? I'm think a Risk lynch would be nice to teach him a lesson on why you don't look scummy on purpose but I guess lynching into a null will get me as banned as he will be if he ends up being town. So blue it is for now.
He's usually VERY MUCH in peoples faces and you can see that "pre-game" (before d1 started, not sure how to call it) but I don't see that right now. No "guuuuys, this guy is clearly town, this guy as well oooh and that guy over there as well. Not willing to lynch THAT" shenanigans at all.
##vote Blue
Sandro did you end up getting Mason? I did not go for it but didn't feel like telling you due to my read on you prior to the mattchew thing. In short: Me laying a trap for Sandroba, aka I still think he's my best read while pressuring blue to get him posting.
+ Show Spoiler [#5] +On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote:On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ?
Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet. In short: Me pointing out I'm not convinced one has to be mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 18 2012 06:40 Toadesstern wrote: Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well.
I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read. Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit.
Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy. Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too. However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it?
Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town. So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't,
I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue. If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD.... I'm just going to quote here:
Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well.
I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now...[...] If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today and you're telling me I didn't think Sandro was a good target snarfs? lol...
+ Show Spoiler [#6] +On May 18 2012 07:02 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 06:59 sandroba wrote: @Toad What exactly is your reasoning for me being mafia? You keep saying I look weird and I'm scummy but you don't provide any reasoning. And because I didn't agree on the cpr thing being denied is not a good reason, but I'm not going to get into that, because I don't wanna flood the thread with obsolete discussion.
So the facts we got so far are the following: Risk claims he didn't try for janitor. I know you said you wouldn't, but can you explain why, since you posted that you thought that role was worth denying? Marvelocity claims he didn't go for janitor nor cpr. Again, why is that? Sentinel claims he tryed janitor and didn't get it, thus vanilla. A role or bulletbill check could work in his case, narrowing it down to marv or risk, or finding out he is mafia. My reasoning for you being scummy is that you are usually a very smart man but so far I haven't read anything smart yet. And yes I would consider what you posted so far as not-smart-at-all. @2nd paragraph: And if mafia has a framer we're screwed big time. See what I am referring to when I said you are usually a smart man? In short: Yet another post about how I think Sandroba is the scummiest guy around
+ Show Spoiler [#7] +On May 18 2012 08:32 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 08:22 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote: I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? just to make it clear because apparently people (hint: marv) are not getting what I am talking about when I am not explaining it explicitly and while I usually do that on purpose it's 1:30 am right now for me, so no time for games. I was referring to this one: Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote: I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. You are the guy who says "give me KP and I'll give you dead scum". You are the guy who thinks CPR doc is equally good in towns hand because it's an infinite bullet vig. Clearly you don't want a noob to take it but someone like you would be really good with a CPR. Clearly you know that you tend to die early a lot if you are mafia. Remember saying something along the lines of "I'm sick of getting shot n1 as town" when we hydraed? Your train of though is just way off. 1) You want CPR to shoot n1, because apparently you die early A LOT as townie and if you don't shoot n1 what's the point of infinite vig because you usually get shot as townie n1 or n2. 2) You don't want noobs to get the CPR (I hope) because noone wants another AC happening. 3) Yet you still say it's incredible powerful due to the fact that it's infinite bullets which is just not adding up considering what I just said. 4) And you get in here telling us that we should no lynch now because you are apparently not sure at all about people. What happened to the guy "give me CPR and I'll give you a dead mafia" down the road? What happened to "cpr is awesome for town as well", what's the reasoning behind thinking CPR is awesome for town. How is that guy town. In short: Yet another explanation why I think Sandroba is the scummiest guy around. The two posts before that were the same but those were 2-liners without explanation in detail why Sandroba is mafia.
+ Show Spoiler [#8] +On May 18 2012 09:38 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote: My suspicions on Bottom 10:
Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting.
Please, feel free to request me for more opinions. vote Sandroba and you're fine :3 Reasoning has been given. In short: Telling people to vote Sandroba instead
+ Show Spoiler [#9] +On May 18 2012 09:46 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.+ Show Spoiler + Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?
Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?
Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?
Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch? This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1. In short: Me telling people that a 1/3 hit is not better than true rnd unless you make an educated guess. I had townreads on all 3 of them (risk and marv because of play, sent because of the weird action), therefore it was true-rnd for me. Therefore it is a Plan-B lynch for me because the chance to hit mafia were really low from my point of view. Didn't realize janitor can't make the flip dissappear d1 and although it only was able to do it d2 or later. Hinthint: I didn't even read the role and didn't know how it works. Surely a mafia would know such a thing.
+ Show Spoiler [#10+#11] +On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote: the last red part obviously was mafia = town. 5 am in the morning here and I'm sleepy...
But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far.
If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie.
So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies.
How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy. If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK... might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else. Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra. That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. In short: Me telling people that I think we have better options around (hint: Sandroba or sheeping Qatol)
+ Show Spoiler [#12] +On May 18 2012 13:30 Toadesstern wrote:Ok I'm really at a lose of word right now and I'm tired so one last try to get you people off those 3: Consider my reads from C9++. That's what I had on d1 in C9++ #2 + Show Spoiler [picture] +Hinthint: Every town read was right. Mafia team ended up being VE + foru + Ace.Here's my sheet considering those 3: + Show Spoiler [picture] +Yes I'm that awesome now please just trust me for once. Marv and Senti both are looking really townish and I REALLY doubt they have a chance to flip mafia right now. Marv is ACTIVLY asking me ALL THE TIME what I am talking about when I am not explaining my thoughts. That looks a lot like a towny who's ACTIVLY trying to figure out what's going on in peoples head. That's one of the biggest town tells in the game. Could it be faked by a good mafia? Hell yeah, it's d1, but I have no reason to believe so yet. Senti claimed VT who tried to pick Janitor. Think about the situation. Would a mafia claim that? Both Risk and Marv claimed they are not janitor. If we somehow figure out they really aren't he is INSTA-BUSTED. If he is mafia he shoveld his own grave with this action. Not today but d2 or d3 because if we find out about one of Risk / Marv being janitor (which is highly likely) he is insta-dead. High risk of dying for mafia, about 0 gain. IF sent is mafia he went for a 1:1 trade with that statement. I am more than happy to take that trade, because we WILL figure that out soon enough without having to randomly lynch into one of those. Risk is looking somewhat townish but he might as well be yellow. That's the one read I'm not sure about but I'm not willing to lynch into a yellow read either. THE ONLY THING people are talking about are the lies. Liar doesn't mean mafia. I caught VE lieing in my first 30-man game. He claimed day-vig d1 in a game with an election and it was obvious to me that he was a liar and I was right about it. I came to the conclusion that he has to be a mafia because of that, which was completly bullshit. He lied because he wanted to win the election for mayor because he knew his own alignment and thought a 100% proven town as mayor is better han a somewhat proven player who's a vet (VE wasn't considered a vet back then). Long story short: Someone lying doesn't mean they have to be mafia all the time, especially if they have a good reason to lie about it and you ALWAYS have a good to lie about your role. ALWAYS. I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. About the same situation for marv. Fancy conclusion:I'm not even sure if one of them is mafia. Yeah it could be one of them is mafia but it's not bound to be like people said. If sent would have picked something else it would have been a whole other situation and THAT's why people started voting them because people misunderstood what sent said. Now that sent cleared those things up it should be clear that neither of them makes a good d1 lynch. In short: Telling people to just believe me once and vote who I think to be mafia instead (that's Sandroba)
+ Show Spoiler [#13] +On May 18 2012 13:33 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 13:12 PaqMan wrote:On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy. If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK... might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else. Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra. That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1. On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote: We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here. You're getting an award for this. 1/4 is true random lynch, aka a lynch into someone without a second of a though done by a random generator. Yes 1/3 TRUELY are aweome odds... And no I am telling you to only lynch people when you are AT LEAST (!!!!!) 50% certain they'll flip mafia. Everything else is a mislynch. In short: Me teling people my lynch is AT LEAST 50% while the other lynch is a 1/3.
+ Show Spoiler [#14] +On May 18 2012 14:09 Toadesstern wrote: Next question for everyone: If you consider them all about equally scummy (1/3)
What are you going to do if the flip ends up being without alignment / role due to the janitor? Go on lynching the other 2 as well?
There's just a shitload of reasons not to lynch into those 3 until we're at least somewhat certain on who out of those 3 (if at all) is mafia. Again me not knowing how that role works, aka I haven't even read it lol.
+ Show Spoiler [#15] +On May 19 2012 02:01 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 01:20 zelblade wrote: So Toad if that is what you think why is your vote on sentinel? Theres several hours left, use it to convince people (well or try to) to actually vote for who you think is scum?
Also Palmar please dont use the pardoner power especially today. Whilst it possible the situation gets handled at night I dont want the flips to get covered assuming that janitor is in the game, and if all 3 are left alive the same shit will happen tomorrow. I tried to do that yesterday and Sandro ended up putting me on his ignore list agreeing with me and voting for senti as well while saying "we probably should no-lynch thought" hinthint: it's the same sandro that says stuff like Show nested quote +[23.04.2012 19:19:06] Sandro Maculan: hmm yeah it might be [23.04.2012 19:19:14] Sandro Maculan: it's non optimal though [23.04.2012 19:19:27] Sandro Maculan: i really like to optimize stuff [23.04.2012 19:19:31] Sandro Maculan: specially day' [23.04.2012 19:19:33] Sandro Maculan: 1 But yeah, whatever, lynching a modconfirmed townie obviously is optimal play d1 and if that's not possible one should nolynch instead. Very much optimal play in my book as well. In short: Me trying a last time to get people to vote Sandroba instead.
Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?"
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On May 26 2012 08:47 Snarfs wrote:Woah, where's all this sandroba stuff coming from Toad. Allow me to patronize you as you're clearly patronizing me: + Show Spoiler [My points on Toad] +On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote:I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote +I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote +People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred". Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town. IN SHORT: Me saying Toad is traitor or scum because one would have to try really hard not to think in order to actually believe that all 3 of risk.nuke, marv and Sentinel could have been town. Show nested quote +On May 26 2012 06:44 Toadesstern wrote: Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?" Thanks for the attempt at misrepresenting me, yet again. I'm not sure if it's because you lack a certain mastery of the english language, you're just being a jerk, or you are actually scum, but at least have the courtesy to address what I actually said. Of course I read your novel of a filter before posting. Do you think I want to sound like an idiot? Are you kidding me? Here's what you posted: Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all
You're telling me what I did is scummy because I did it only thinking those 3 are town. Yes I did think those 3 are townish early on but that's not the reason I wanted someone else lynched. I did it because I thought Sandro has a 50-80% chance to flip mafia at d1. I still think so because he did multiple thinks he considers BAD for town, things he would NEVER do himself as a townie according to our skype conversation. Either he lied to me in skype or he's mafia.
Secondly I said the beginnging of d1 that I thought all three are town. Once I realized sent was above 3 votes I realized that this is not what I thought it would be and one of them had to be mafia. Still I had a townread on all 3 of them which means one of those reads had to be wrong, which is the reason I went with the weakest townread when I failed to get you voting Sandroba instead. So no, again wrong: In the end I no longer thought all 3 are townies. That was only my first impression when they both "casually" had about 2 votes that meant nothing.
So basicly, as already pointed out your 2 basic points of your case are made up and just not true at all.
Anyways that's it for me. I have no idea why people think I'm mafia at all and snarfs makes some things up I don't even begin to understand. The only reasonable thing that was said about me is that I was wrong about a townread on d1. Yeah I agree, that hasn't happened FOR AGES when I was town but everyone can be wrong sometimes. Last time I was wrong like that was AC...., every other game was at least 50% mafia caught d1 as town, so I get why people don't trust me I guess.
Last 2 mafias (mafia + traitor) are Sandroba + one of zelblade or Zephird. I think looking into people who voted barundar early on isn't actually bad considering anyone taking a second of a thought should have realized that lynching hiro first is the way to go with barundar counterclaiming although it wasn't right. I pointed that out first, Snarfs pointed it out again, Marv agreed and Qatol pointed it out again and agreed to everything that was said about hiro being the better lynch option at that point in time. So there was no reason to actually think barundar is the better lynch option from a townie perspective, at all.
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On May 26 2012 21:13 Zephirdd wrote: Toad, there is a reason when you know politician cant be below you on the draft and hiro was below me while barundar is above.
so what? We're looking for 1 mafia and 1 traitor after Barundar flipps and once he flipps we know wether or not your claim is right.
If he flips politician you're good :p If he's not we've got 2 mafias left that may or may not have something to with politicians AT ALL. So far I don't know if I can trust your claim therefore leaving it as an option, although it might seem unlikely but after Barundars action and hiros flip I'm not taking anything for granted anymore.
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On May 26 2012 22:57 sandroba wrote: Let me tell you why you are scum and your trap is retarded. Toad uses trap to see if sandroba is mafia based on mason role -> it fails, sandroba really went for mason -> toad concludes sandroba is still mafia anyway -> ??? -> more nonsense and ignoring everything else.
never said it was a good trap :p If you would have told me you were a mason you would have been confirmed mafia yeah. Telling me you ended up being VT is a nullread and doesn't change it because you could be smart enough to figure out the "trap" (and again, it wasn't really that good after announce I'd pick mason myself lol) or you just told the truth. I can't tell the difference, how am I supposed to?
And I already adressed everything in your spoiler when answering Snarfs, so I don't really feel like copy & pasting stuff
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I'm not being mad or not-nice at all. It's just incredible hilarious that Sandroba has not done a thing until now, comes in here with basicly the same arguments snarfs has presented (and I already explained why they are simply not true) and tells people I'm 100% mafia.
- I said a 1/3 lynch is not good because I'm not sure which of those 3 is mafia d1 once I realized one had to be mafia and suggest lynching Sandroba as an alternative instead because I felt like he had a better chance to flip mafia than 1/3 anyways.
- Sandroba said he had no idea which one of those would flip mafia and proposed a NL while NOT even giving a read at all or an alternative. He simply got in here told people to NL, no reason why, nothing and settled with one of the 3 because he had to (frankly with the guy that was looking the most townish imo)
- I hate no-lynches as town, especially if half the playerfield is within their first 10 games or something like that because I feel like NLs are hurting the less experienced more and only a handfull of players can really deal with a NL properly and I don't think I'm one of them. Therefore I pushed for my (imo way better) alternative and settled for one of the 3 once I realized a Sandro-lynch is not going to happen
- Sandroba hates NL's and is a guy who says stuff like "I want to make d1 optimal every single game as town", yet he did nothing and proposed to NL without giving an alternative. That's optimal play? That's what snarfs is saying I'm doing and while it's totally wrong it is right about Sandroba.
- I told people I think Sandroba is at least a 50% chance to hit mafia d1 and I still think so. My strongest mafiareads on d1 have in general an incredible goot chance to hit mafia d1, proof here + Show Spoiler [d1 reads from my last 5 games] +
L: Erandorr, turned out red. Next one: Sandroba, turned out red AC: Schworz My one big failure, but that guy fakeclaimed DT and told people he got a red check on my mod-confirmed bodyguard in a game without framers as a townie, lol. Ever since that happened I just completly lost myself and derped the game. Storm: RoL, WBG, VE RoL was the strongest read but he basicly claimed mafia in the thread so that doesn't count. WBG flipped mafia, VE flipped SK, pick one of those C9++ #2: VE, guy flipped mafia
So thats a 4 in 5 chance to hit mafia. Yeah I'd consider my d1 reads pretty good although I don't always know why I think someone is mafia, which makes it kinda hard to explain it to other people lol
and I'd consider the read I had (and still have) on d1 stronger than average compared to those 5 reads. And not to mention that I have given a SHITLOAD of explanations why Sandroba is mafia
- Sandroba on the other hand does nothing, gets in the thread telling people "lulz toad is 100% mafia" while telling me I've got some arbitrary number on how likely he is to flip (the pun is Sandroba saying "100% mafia") without giving a reason for something like 7 days in a row (when did this game start?. And now he gets in here and repeats what snarfs said about me which doesn't make it any right.
So basicly everything he said about me is completly wrong and he labels me as a 100% mafia while everything he "pointed out" about me perfectly fits his own play this game. This guy is ridiculous and no way is he going to flip town. I'd say he picked traitor to be in a good position either way once he realized he's dead last in the draft: You either confirm there's a traitor for town while being town (which would be awesome) or you get to be a traitor in a game where 1/3 of all people are anti-town.
Just take into consideration we're dealing with Sandroba here. That guy is probably top3 or top5 of the best town players ON TL. Does this Sandroba you see in this game feel like a "holy shit that's BY FAR the best townie in the game and he already figured out 2 or 3 mafias by the end of d1"? Let's give him a bad day excuse just for the lulz: Does this guy feel like top 3 townies in this game? Because that's what Sandroba usually does when getting town. He destroys mafia within 1 or 2 cycles tops, which is the reason mafia always shoots him n1. I'm not taking the "mafia shoot him n1" as an argument at all because if I'm really wrong and those something like 30% really happen and he's town he's entirely useless this game for whatever reason, but that's not town Sandroba. Town Sandroba is lazy as shit but still figures out mafia in a heartbeat without posting and giving a case on d1, n1 or d2 that is DEAD END correct on at least 2 mafias.
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I know who got roleblocked :3
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zelblade: Kind of unreadable for me. Would be a decent plan-B lynch but has done nothing of importance yet as far as I can see Mattchew: Makes 0 sense as mafia. The only possible scenario we ever considered was him being dayvig and one of the mafias being copy-cat. Seems like that did not happen and he shot a mafia so no lynching that risk.nuke: Town as well. He shot mafia as well and apparently got roleblocked by the traitor. marvellosity: Town. Mafia buddy thing and all, no way that guy is mafia. Snarfs: Town for obvious reasons Palmar: Hard to tell but I'd say town. He once told me he considers people lying about RL-stuff (something along the lines "sry no time for the next 2 days. I've got some finals!") cheaters, or at least considers lying like that cheating and would never do something like that. So basicly I buy his frustration story and don't think he'd replace out as mafia and just forfeit. Furthermore I don't think he'd say he wants to replace out as mafia to look townish because as mentioned he considers something like that cheating. sandroba: Mafia lol Misder: He roleblocked me yesterday and we can assume the traitor RB'ed risk and not misder, making him look somewhat decent. Also the fact that he roleblocked me probably makes him look good because he's trying to hit the right targets instead of holding it. Obviously he's wrong and I have no idea what the point of RB'ing a vanilla is but whatever.
So everyone but Zelblade and Sandroba is town to me. I'd say it's Sandroba >>>>>>>>>> Zelblade >>> One of my townreads is wrong.
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On May 28 2012 21:23 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 21:22 marvellosity wrote:On May 28 2012 20:54 Toadesstern wrote: I know who got roleblocked :3 Care to enlighten us then? Oh I misread your post maybe - you said 'he roleblocked me yesterday' - you meant he roleblocked you during the night we just had? yeah the night qatol and zephirdd died I got roleblocked.
If I knew about the last night (although I assume it was Barundar being roleblocked like misder announced) I would have told you guys last cycle lol.
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Actually I'd but Zelblade a lot more in Sandros direction, something like
Sandro >> Zelblade >>>>>>>>>>>> my town reads are wrong
The Joat-VT thing seems really convenient considering we have a flipped Joat. Not sure what to make of it yet and I don't think we're going to know if that's just bad luck or a fake.
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EBWOP
On May 28 2012 21:30 Toadesstern wrote: Actually I'd put Zelblade a lot more in Sandros direction, something like
Sandro >> Zelblade >>>>>>>>>>>> my town reads are wrong
The Joat-VT thing seems really convenient considering we have a flipped Joat. Not sure what to make of it yet and I don't think we're going to know if that's just bad luck or a fake. Stupid band-aid. Makes typing a living hell.
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On May 28 2012 23:39 marvellosity wrote: Toad, have you lied to us this game? maybe. I tend to lie as a townie from time to time but I don't recall anything. Anyways since this is my last day in this game a few hints:
Don't listen to sandroba and don't listen to Zelblade at any point for obvious reasons after I flipped.
Don't listen to snarfs because he's unable to make cases, don't listen to misder, don't listen to palmar if he gets back in the game.
Do whatever Risk, mattchew or maybe marv (if the other two are dead) are saying tomorrow but highly priority on risk and mattchew. Those 2 are the only ones who I think are truely able to find a mafia themselves and the rest has demostrated that they're just not able to this game and I thought so before the game has started a well. That's not meant insulting or me being mad it's just that half the people in here either look for the wrong things that they deem a scumtull when it's really not or are not objective at all.
That being said, lynch into Sandroba / Zelblade tomorrow unless Risk or Mattchew have a fucking good reason to say otherwise and I hope Zelblade flips mafia because if it's Sandroba I'll be fucking mad at you all for lynching me.
gg
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On May 29 2012 05:30 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2012 02:32 Toadesstern wrote:On May 28 2012 23:39 marvellosity wrote: Toad, have you lied to us this game? maybe. I tend to lie as a townie from time to time but I don't recall anything. Anyways since this is my last day in this game a few hints: Don't listen to sandroba and don't listen to Zelblade at any point for obvious reasons after I flipped. Don't listen to snarfs because he's unable to make cases, don't listen to misder, don't listen to palmar if he gets back in the game. Do whatever Risk, mattchew or maybe marv (if the other two are dead) are saying tomorrow but highly priority on risk and mattchew. Those 2 are the only ones who I think are truely able to find a mafia themselves and the rest has demostrated that they're just not able to this game and I thought so before the game has started a well. That's not meant insulting or me being mad it's just that half the people in here either look for the wrong things that they deem a scumtull when it's really not or are not objective at all. That being said, lynch into Sandroba / Zelblade tomorrow unless Risk or Mattchew have a fucking good reason to say otherwise and I hope Zelblade flips mafia because if it's Sandroba I'll be fucking mad at you all for lynching me. gg why is this your last day?
dude look at dem votes. If I start blabbering how I am not mafia we probably lose a day or still end up lynching me while generating the biggest shitstorm TL has ever seen. Snarfs case is the worst I have ever seen and is completly made up as I have already pointed out but he keeps tunneling me for things I never did while Sandroba actually did the things he's accusing me for lol.
Not going to put effort into this if people are not willing to even think about it and I don't have a chance to change people's mind because clearly snarfs hasn't even read my posts nor my filter so far. If you guys figure out wether it's Zelblade or Sandro and vote him awesome. But I'm not going to talk to a wall and pretend that I can still change this because clearly I can't due to peoples lack to actually read the thread. I can't force people to do that. I tried that in my frist newbie game ever and it did not work, neither would it work here. I have given all the reasoning why there is no case on me while the legendary Sandroba keeps on doing everything he told me he'd never do as a townie in skype and keeps on doing nothing to contribute at all while pusing for a NL without having other alternative.
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On May 29 2012 05:51 marvellosity wrote: I admit sandroba looks bad.
But he was voting for Sentinel on quite a weird reason at the time. Snarfs and I can't quite get over why he'd bus like that when the votes were so close. Sandroba is the the biggest busser on all of TL.net ... That's how he plays mafia. The moment he thinks someone plays weird enough to come to the conclusion his townie-self would figure him out he busses that guy no matter what. You can take that for granted once I flip :p
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On May 29 2012 09:05 Snarfs wrote:That being said, this: Show nested quote +On May 29 2012 06:08 Toadesstern wrote:On May 29 2012 05:51 marvellosity wrote: I admit sandroba looks bad.
But he was voting for Sentinel on quite a weird reason at the time. Snarfs and I can't quite get over why he'd bus like that when the votes were so close. Sandroba is the the biggest busser on all of TL.net ... That's how he plays mafia. The moment he thinks someone plays weird enough to come to the conclusion his townie-self would figure him out he busses that guy no matter what. You can take that for granted once I flip :p is probably the most useful thing you've said so far. Why can't all your posts be this simple and informative?
they are, but they are so heavily compressed with information that people don't understand them as I am typing them and usually end up forgetting something inbetween so the explanation often times lacks a critical detail which I obviously only figure out hours later.
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Oh a last thought/explanation about Palmar.
I still think he's town but here's the reason why I don't want people to listen him if he decides to start playing: It is very much possible that his claim is completle garbage and is something entirely different. The thing is we have a DT check on him telling us he's green but he could be something like a godfather so I'd rather trust reads than a check on him. Both tell me he's town but nothing like a confirmed townie, which people tend to think after hearing someone DT'ed the guy.
Still think he's town and it's either Sandro or Zelblade but if both flip town (I'll eat a hat if that happens) he might be an option.
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gg I guess. I'm going to sleep and if Sandro flips mafia I'll be really mad at the people who lynched me for voting a mafia d1 instead of voting a 1/3 chance of hitting mafia that ended up hitting mafia. So I guess I hope Sandroba flips town and it's Zel who flips mafia lol
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ftw. How did you guys not lynch zelblade?
Haven't really followed since I died but I figured this is a won game because it's either Sandroba or Zelblade
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