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On May 19 2012 01:20 zelblade wrote: So Toad if that is what you think why is your vote on sentinel? Theres several hours left, use it to convince people (well or try to) to actually vote for who you think is scum?
Also Palmar please dont use the pardoner power especially today. Whilst it possible the situation gets handled at night I dont want the flips to get covered assuming that janitor is in the game, and if all 3 are left alive the same shit will happen tomorrow.
I tried to do that yesterday and Sandro ended up putting me on his ignore list agreeing with me and voting for senti as well while saying "we probably should no-lynch thought" hinthint: it's the same sandro that says stuff like
[23.04.2012 19:19:06] Sandro Maculan: hmm yeah it might be [23.04.2012 19:19:14] Sandro Maculan: it's non optimal though [23.04.2012 19:19:27] Sandro Maculan: i really like to optimize stuff [23.04.2012 19:19:31] Sandro Maculan: specially day' [23.04.2012 19:19:33] Sandro Maculan: 1
But yeah, whatever, lynching a modconfirmed townie obviously is optimal play d1 and if that's not possible one should nolynch instead. Very much optimal play in my book as well.
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On May 19 2012 01:34 Mattchew wrote: I just can't believe that a town marv or town risk could be this arrogant to the thought process of the rest of town. Your role claims can help us lynch scum today.
marv who do you want to lynch
Risk is the KING of arrogance. The KING Even more than palmar because palmar gets annoyed at some point and will just shut up because of that and be like "whatever, let's lynch a townie" after nonstop talking to a wall for 12 hours.
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On May 19 2012 01:48 Palmar wrote: I don't actually intend to pardon people.
From where I stand at the moment, Sentinel's claim makes absolutely no sense from mafia perspective.
If we try to solve the puzzle given Sentinel is mafia, he basically has forced a triangle of lynch between him, risk and marv. This makes almost no sense at all because the mafia is already weak after getting deconduo shot 5 minutes into the game.
The other two at the moment make much more sense. next medal going out. Exactly what I said 12 hours ago but maybe people listen to you instead like people listened to Qatol pregame although I said the exact same thing.
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On May 19 2012 02:06 Snarfs wrote: Toad, you keep tossing around "modconfirmed townie" in Sentinel's direction. What do you know that we don't?
He said he's a VT and he said that either risk or marv is a janitor => He either is a mafia who tries to get himself lynched in a 1v1 fashion on purpose or he's a modconfirmed townie due to the set-up (only one role available). I don't think mafia try to lynch themselves.
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Ok Palmar you're on guy that's listening to reason. sent: I give sent] about 5% chance to flip mafia, tops. Marv: Honestly I don't see marv flipping mafia either because he's looking really townish, asking questions, asking what people meant (mostly what I meant) to say and stuff like that. That's a town attitude. I would usually say he's about 10% mafia 90% town but the fact that he played really bad in C9++ and nothing like that as a townie makes me think it's maye 20-30% mafia and rest town because he didn't play that way as town. Maybe coaching on how to play townish or mafia advice on how to play townish or he simply got better Risk: He's really ignorant, always, no matter of alignment. I could see him do this as both town and mafia but I'd give him a 50% chance to flip mafia.
Agree / Disagree? Think we have a chance to get someone other than sent lynched?
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On May 19 2012 02:17 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 02:10 Palmar wrote:On May 19 2012 02:05 Snarfs wrote: Palmar, you say that Sentinel claiming VT is very unlikely for mafia, but if he had claimed anything else he would be going against a plan that he had agreed to before day 1 and would very likely be under fire anyways. By claiming VT, if he is janitor, he at least has a chance to survive until the night and hide the flip and whatever information that might contain.
That's how I see it. You forget that sentinal did not have to claim at all. And if we lynch townie today, we're killing the other two anyway, so whatever. I don't think we would have forgotten about him if he just didn't claim. I agree with risk that it seems like he rushed into this without thinking everything through fully. Either way, everyone needs to be voting between Sentinel and risk.nuke at this point to ensure we have a lynch.
So you think that after seeing 2 out of 3 people not doing what they were supposed to do according to our plan and the third flipping mafia he would be crazy panicing as mafia and "shitshitshit, they will lynch me if I tell them I didn't do what I was supposed to do"?
Just a straight yes or no. Want to know if I need to talk you in the future.
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On May 19 2012 03:04 marvellosity wrote:Alright I've talked it over. I am mason and I chose the random townie option. This is not a breadcrumb but this was me taking a stab at what I believed zelblade had chosen given he said he was VT. If the thread thinks it is correct I will tell you who I got, for the mo I'm gonna exercise and have dinner.
hey there. I picked mason and I got VT, just so you guys know. Not that it tells anything about his alignment but I believe his claim.
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Palmar explained it as well and so did Sandroba if I remember correctly. Their filter is a bit less in total. Just in case :p
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On May 19 2012 08:44 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 08:39 Palmar wrote: I'm going to send in a pardon for sentinel.
So either we lynch risk.nuke or we lynch no one. I approve of this. same here.
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On May 19 2012 09:25 risk.nuke wrote:+ Show Spoiler +He's low on the draft. He took what he could get. As for why he is sk. As town Palmar is serious busniess. As mafia he can be both serious and lazy depending on his mood. As third party he's a troll. + Show Spoiler + Right now the scum is falling apart, this isn't good for the sk who wants to maintain a balance. Not lynching sentinel today will continue the chaos that's come from our triangle drama for another cycle.
That's wrong and you know it. Ever since L Palmar decided to change his townplay. Since then he used to nonstop troll as all 3rd party, mafia and town HARDCORE.
The difference (imo) in his style and how to figure him out is his wish to win the game. As Pretty much the same as wbg in LI, because I just don't see him being THAT concerned about the lynch. Palmar wants you lynched and is not willing to lynch sent AT ALL. Do you really think a SK Palmar would be anything like this? Hell no, he'd maybe try for 2 or 3 posts and afterwards stop talking to a wall and be like "whatever, I'm an SK".
If Palmar is a SK he doesn't care about who gets lynched at all. Right now a SK probably wants town and mafia to die equally. There's possibly a shit load of KP floating around and killing townies won't be a problem, killing mafias however could be because they tend to die to lynches, one per cycle.
What palmar does makes no sense at all if you consider him a SK.
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On May 19 2012 13:29 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play. Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote: Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet. And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town. Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying. Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively: 1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd 2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd 3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla 4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla 5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor. 1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him? I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further: 1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.) 2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened: 2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars. 2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars). 3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him. So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early? Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying. If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated: We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason.
Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target? I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates.
hinthint: As you said, there have to be 2 liars OR risk is the liar because if Risk is the liar it all works with only one liar as well. Occhams razzor says we should lynch risk.
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That being said I'm going to sheep the fuck out of Qatol from now on and shut up. I was obviously wrong
Still don't understand why Sent wanted himself to be lynched, he had no reason to claim at all lol oO
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On May 19 2012 23:37 Mattchew wrote: I think any townie with a gun should shoot barundar according to my sheet Sandro is mafia and Barundar is the SK. Sooooo, idk my read yesterda was horrible :p
I will make it something like this post from now on until I adjusted accordingly, no pushing from my point until I am back on track. I'll give you a couple of updates on my reads but won't explain a lot and I don't even think anyone will take them into consideration given how d1 worked out.
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Oh and about the "is toad a good lynch?" question just my point of view as a last explanation to make you understand what I thought process was, although it's pretty much what Palmar said:
- I thought Sent would have been perfectly fine as mafia if he had just not claimed at all or just claimed JOAT to deny mafia a KP, like we said pregame. Noone would have said that's a reason for a lynch considering how both Risk and marv didn't follow the plan as well
- I thought it is very unlikely that a mafia pushes himself into a "it is either him or me" situation when he would have been perfectly fine without claiming or just claiming the truth.
- Therefore I thought it's a townie telling the truth because it's just way too retarded for mafia. If he is mafia he tried to get himself lynched with that claim and succeeded in doing so
- I did not think he would try to get himself lynched therefore I sticked with the "honest townie"-read
I honestly still have no idea how noone in his team told him about that. That wasn't even a move like "herpederp I'ma going to vote myself"-so-stupid-mafia-would-not-do-it. It was a mafia-shot-mafia-at-night-stupid move.
That's why I called him Town because I never could have imagined a mafia doing that mistake and rather thought it's a townie not having a clue what he's doing because I was really certain a mafia buddy would have explained him what he did if he was mafia.
Random thought Massclaim is stupid and only helping mafia. Townies know what to do themselves and even if someone else who is a townie knew your role his advices are not going to help you because townie #1 makes decisions on the same information townie #2 has. Therefore massclaim would be free information for mafia with only very limited information for town. We could catch a mafia like that but they could just as well claim the truth or go for roles they know aren't around and claim VT (mason, Joat, stuff like that) and noone could really tell the difference between a townie and a mafia claim imo
Next update from me tomorrow :p
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I signed up for Caller game? :p
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there has to be missing KP oO
It's only 2 and I doubt the SK would shoot into someone he/ everyone thinks so be mafia when 2 are already dead.
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On May 20 2012 23:51 Bluelightz wrote: EBWOP:
@Marv
I made a spreadsheet on the night kills, the results:
CPR (which I think is in Mafia hands): no | Mafia alignment kill : yes | talis SK kill : no |
We know risk's vig shot went through so that confirms 1 kill
What I think:
Mafia kill is the one that went through as there is nothing preventing this as this is at the top of the tree of action resolution. SK Kill was blocked/ hit a veteran. CPR was roleblocked/ held his power (VERY UNLIKELY)
What do you guys think?
I'd say it's kinda unlikely that we managed to block 2 hits, therefore I'd say no copycatted-CPR and the SK hit a vet or something like that. It's at least easier of an explanation than that + another nighthit that was absorbed.
Also consider we had a witch flip. Not sure if the witch can protect himself / herself (if she can she probably didn't use her power) but I'd say witch using the power n1 is definitely the way to go considering that we have so many people who are looking really good and you have an about 0 chance to accidently protect a mafia considering that mafia has to do something about those good looking people.
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On May 21 2012 01:50 Zephirdd wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 01:08 Qatol wrote:On May 21 2012 00:49 risk.nuke wrote: Qatol what do you mean? Simple. I'm the Jailkeeper and I jailed you last night. Please explain why you haven't mentioned that the PaqMan shot wasn't your vigilante shot. You were roleblocked. Question: did you send the action to chaoser? Its possible that he didnt get the action if GM was offline, and afaik you must send it to both hosts. this or risk is scum and thats fucking awesome because that means I wasnt entirely wrong.
Well if risk got roleblocked from Qatol you would have gotten the "you got roleblocked" PM no matter of alignment. As town he has no clue if he was roleblocked by a townie or a mafia. both would make sense given the vig claim and given the earlier idea to keep KP low early on because there's likely to be a lot KP from mafias side.
So the important point is, if risk got roleblocked he knew that either way. So this is again some kind of shenanigans he's pulling on us to figure out mafia himself with a "trap" because I simply don't see him do that as mafia. He could have easily said he got roleblocked and said he did not shoot him as mafia. No need to lie because he knew (if there really are RB-pms, I don't know about that) he was roleblocked and a lie would bring him into the situation we had with sent yesterday just worse: Either the RB is a liar or the Vig is a liar and one of them has to be mafia. So if he is mafia he just burried his own grave when he had no reason to tell us such a thing.
But assuming people know how to play mafia made me think sent was town as well so idk lol. I'm not going to make a conclusion out of that, just laying that information out because frankly it looks like people haven't realized it: Risk would have gotten the PM (if there is one) as mafia as well.
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On May 21 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote: Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway.
well people said "we're lynching into one of the three" and all three of your were a topic. You were the least likely but people talked about you as well.
Remember what I said about "come back to me when you think 2 of them are town and we're going to lynch the last one remaining or if you figure out one of them has to be mafia" ? That's the reason for the VT claim AFTER your mason claim. As Qatol said it shut up people talking about you and while I agree you weren't under heavy suspicion you were under suspicion as well. That way the "it's either Risk / marv / sent" thing turned into "it's either Risk or sent".
Yeah I was wrong on sent but I at least cleared you for the day.
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