Pretty much the same as Qatol. Always wanted to play that.
Edit: It's still pregame so editing is allowed? Kinda hard to tell because it's a vote... I only edited [b] tags in though to make it a little bit nicer to read for you.
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Pretty much the same as Qatol. Always wanted to play that. Edit: It's still pregame so editing is allowed? Kinda hard to tell because it's a vote... I only edited [b] tags in though to make it a little bit nicer to read for you. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I totally would chose that for someone else else if it would be PTP instead of PYP. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 06 2012 08:45 Barundar wrote: Voted pyp redux, other setup looks very fun but pyp is my favorite you need to vote in this thread like everyone else does. The poll is just a mere quick estimation for GM | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 07 2012 07:31 Mattchew wrote: When does voting close Voting for which setup will remain open for about 48 hours. Post in this thread with a ##Vote: Setup #. The deadline for votes is Monday night at 03:00 CEST (+02:00). Only vote if you think you would play (even if you'll only play if a specific setup wins). If you'd rather not vote in the thread, I will accept PMed votes and consider them anonymous. Don't vote with smurfs. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Edit: Ok figured it out myself by now. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 08 2012 19:56 Hassybaby wrote: Palmar, use Dickensian flaming. Then you can still call someone dumb, but everyone thinks you're a perfect gentleman when doing it and wbg will want to lynch you for that. So before doing that you have to check wether or not wbg is in the game as well. Edit: Oh crap those roles are so awesome. There's at least 2 roles I always dreamt of playing and 2 more roles that look REALLY sexy to me :3 Screw you GM for making me dissapointed either way: "ooooh, I've got A and I always wanted to play A, but that means I won't get to play X,Y and Z this time " This game is going to be so awesome :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 08 2012 20:15 Adam4167 wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2012 20:04 Toadesstern wrote: On May 08 2012 19:56 Hassybaby wrote: Palmar, use Dickensian flaming. Then you can still call someone dumb, but everyone thinks you're a perfect gentleman when doing it and wbg will want to lynch you for that. So before doing that you have to check wether or not wbg is in the game as well. Edit: Oh crap those roles are so awesome. There's at least 2 roles I always dreamt of playing and 2 more roles that look REALLY sexy to me :3 Screw you GM for making me dissapointed either way: "ooooh, I've got A and I always wanted to play A, but that means I won't get to play X,Y and Z this time " This game is going to be so awesome :p You should pick the compulsive vig, I hear that ends well. I have no idea what role I want to play, maybe ill just shut my eyes and randomly point at the screen when its my turn. actually that's what I thought about, together with Dayvig. I want to be Palmar "post your spreadsheet or I'll blast you away" just if I realy end up being a dayvig I know there's noone else being a day-vig so obviouly I won't have the usual palmerish problems. I could bring his strategy to perfection! Edit: LOL screw that. I'm picking town godfather | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 08 2012 20:30 Zephirdd wrote: seems like there is no compulsive vig tho what hapens with town GFs and scum Traitors? a scum Traitor would be pretty fucking awesome IMO. When targeted by night actions, becomes town. Except he can communicate with scum! Maybe it should have a limitation tho, which is "cannot claim their teammates without a real case, otherwise town loses" :D Or just disallow scum traitors. Traitor - You hold no allegiance to the town. If you are targeted by Scum at night with any action, instead of that action happening you'll be recruited by them instead. You lose if the Mafia lose. However you are part of the town count before recruitment. seems like he isn't changing alignments, he gets to be mafia. So a town traitor who gets shot or whatever else gets to be mafia and a mafia traitor who gets shot or whatever else gets to be mafia as well (read: nothing changes). However I don't really like the traitor role at all. Sounds a little imba to me. Instant -1town and +1mafia and you know you'll end up being in the mafia team? I don't see a reason why a townie should not want that given the assumption that it's balanced before roles are picked is true. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 08 2012 20:41 Adam4167 wrote: I was taking a cheap shot at Toads play in Arkham. I could have totally got behind your coin-flipping shenanigans if you were Two-Face, in fact I would have praised you for getting into the role. Take Town Janitor and then never use it, Toad. I loathe no flips. I got that :p And no lol, I'm not going to pick town janitor, but picking mafia roles as town sounds interesting for most mafia roles. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Explanation: I was Town-Godfather who was allowed to change appearence every single night and Ceph was a rolecop: 01[00:05] <+Toad|> what role am I [00:05] <+Cephiro^^> THE 04[00:05] <+Cephiro^^> TOAD IS THE [00:05] <Zephirdd> risk only went to ceph's home [00:05] <+risk7nuke> WAIT [00:05] <+Cephiro^^> TIME SHIFTING DRAGON [00:05] <+Cephiro^^> I GOT A SHIELD [00:05] <+Cephiro^^> FROM RISK [00:05] <Zephirdd> WTF IS THAT SHIT? [00:13] <+Cephiro^^> WHAT THE FUCK [00:13] <+Cephiro^^> LOL 04[00:13] <+Cephiro^^> Toad is my dad [00:13] <Zephirdd> wat 04[00:13] <+risk7nuke> ##vote toad [00:24] <+Cephiro^^> today he returned to me: 04[00:24] <+risk7nuke> kill toad [00:24] <+Cephiro^^> VOTE FOR FUCKIGN RISK That sounds so hilarious but it probably would be considered anti-town in a real game :p The thing I don't like about the traitor is that if a townie chooses to be a traitor that obviously buffs mafia because it's -1 town and +1 mafia (unless GM evens the game out somehow different in case of people choosing a traitor) and on top of that it weakens town a bit because the traitor is gone and everyone choosing traitor after the first one will be a VT instead of a blue. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 09 2012 02:28 prplhz wrote: inb4 everybody picks CPR and all but first pick ends up vanilla Do all scum have a gun, showing up to bullet bill? I am not allowed to make a plan pregame and tell people what to do pregame, but I'm sure people can figure out how to avoid that problem themselves. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 09 2012 02:31 syllogism wrote: Hider is actually the best role for a "vet" e: oh wait it's not the kind that doubles as a DT, well it's still pretty nice yeah your edit is the reason I think cpr as town vet is still #1^^ | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 09 2012 04:44 talismania wrote: Show nested quote + On May 09 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote: Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. If you're mafia and pick CPR as pick 1, then you will draw a lot of fire if you're still alive and the kp has been 2+ for three nights in a row or something like that. Also dangerous because #1 pick is likely to be checked by some role or the other. Probably still worth it, but not without its drawbacks. Just a little example for your: Mafia team: 3 (CPR + vig + RB/framer/GF/janitor) + 1 traitor = 4 => Town team = 11 people. So it's 11 vs 4 let's say town mislynches d1, which is not unlikely at all => 10vs 4 => nightphase with 3 KP => 7vs 4 and it's lylo after a single cycle. Who cares about what happens 3 cycles after the game started when you win in 2 cycles if you manage to not shoot into protection / vets / hider. Edit: And I'm not saying that because I think it's imba, it's more about that people should think about the set-up because mafia will most likely have an awesome plan if they're in irc or in a Mafia QT argueing about what's the best thing to do given the drafts. Mafia is probably not going to srew up the picks imo, but I could see townies screwing up the picks. That's why I am talking about those things because I think we need to be on an equal stage to start the game or it's instant gg :p There's some roles that are really nasty for both town and mafia and I think CPR is something mafia should never lay there hands on if town wants a chance. GF is pretty awesome as well given the changes and so is a pardoner if you use it the right way. Edit2: Oh and that's talking about a 3 vs 12 set-up. I don't actually know if it's going to be something like that. Usually a mini is 12 players and 3v9 or something like that, so maybe it's even a 4v11 setup, who knows :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
There's going to be an anouncement "ok game starts, you've got 24 hours to send in your numbers" or something like that because we don't know if it's going to be a 15 player or a 20 player game, right? :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
and yeah I know Qatol, I'll stop talking about that stuff. I just felt it might be something that could possibly end up breaking the game if people don't think about it. So I wanted to get people thinking about the roles before the game started and what could end up being really nasty because if I end with a mafia team like I mentioned above I'm going to be either really happy or really mad. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 09 2012 14:20 Foolishness wrote: I already gave him approval like a week ago! I told him he could go up to 20! And now he's bothering me again about it! More clutter in my inbox! And I have to repeat myself! Gosh! =P awesome, now make GM add those 5 pointed out earlier and I won't be shot n1 this time :3 | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
"YO DUDE, POST YOUR SPREADSHEET. YOU'VE GOT 5 MINUTES TO DO THAT OR I BLOW YOU UP" And you know what the best part about it would be? If you really are a dayvig you know noone else is a dayvig and you can't run into the usual palmerish problems that come with that strategy. That's why I'm going to bring it to perfection. In this game that kind of thing can't happen because there's 1 dayvig tops (which is also the reason VE did not sign up) :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 10 2012 07:29 GMarshal wrote: Bleh, looking at it, I disagree with the logic used in PYP:I, I'd place the numbers as so [19,19] [1,1] [1,1] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,4] [7,2] [7,2] Basically, the uniqueness of the leading number trumps ties in the second number. I think this is a more logical way to handle it, that doesn't require complex rulings. exactly what I thought as well. I like that way more than the other one :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Boooored. I want this to start NAO | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Reasoning: Mafia can talk about this in privacy and figure out what's the best course of action, town can not. I don't need to tell mafia what I picked making it easier (imo) to get a higher draft. That being said I already send in my numbers and I won't tell people for now :p I still think #1 and #2 draft both HAVE TO pick CPR. It's the by far strongest role around and we can not let mafia have that role. #2 picks CPR as well to get some fool-safety. That way we probably will end up loosing a CPR night 1 or mafia shoots into a hider / vet if the #1 guy chose to take the rnd-chance that #2 is town as well (yeah I am assuming that #1 is town for the sake of discussion, if #1 ends up being mafia we don't even need this discussion, that's why). But I am frankly perfectly fine with that. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 01:39 sandroba wrote: I've thought about assigning cpr too, but I'm not sure it's good since target for mafia to hit if the guy in the pos is town. So I think it's best for it to remain open. ok but you do agree that the CPR is the by far strongest power for mafia right? I agree that it's not the strongest role for Town at all. You might pull a Toad on everyone and end up shooting 3 townies but we can not let mafia have CPR. That being said I don't even care if a townie CPR dies to mafia. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 01:46 sandroba wrote: I do. Mafia is not likely to get shot, so town cpr is very good (infinite vigi). It's very strong for both teams. Do you agree with my denial plan? I need everyone that sees a problem with it to step up and say it. I totally agree with it for the most part and like I already said pregame (I was allowed to talk about roles as long as I don't do plans :p) the roles that you listed are very powerful for mafia. I don't actually think the GF part of the GF isn't that strong for mafia in this set-up imo because frankly a tracker or bullet-bob seems much more powerful than any kind of cop in this set-up but the vengeful part of this role adds up. The janitor is just really screwing with town and the RB is really hard for town to use (if at all) but still very nice for mafia to kill people or RB them. The only thing I disagree about is that the CPR is not there. +1 kill every night can lose us the game at before d3 has started as pointed out by me, although the example I did was tailored for a 15 player game. Therefore I will not agree to any plan that hasn't a CPR as #1 denial in it. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 01:58 sandroba wrote: @decon I asked this already and they are informed. I fail to see how dropping godfather is good. Means that if gf is ever killed we get a bonus mafia for free. @toad tell me how assigning cpr will help to keep it off mafia hands. GF is strong because it's imunity to checks + 1 free kill. But it's way stronger as mafia so that's why it's in the denial plan. Unlike cpr which is strong as both alignments. It's not, but it's at least giving us a change that a townie ends up with it instead of a mafia. Do you really think someone who's not called Sandroba, deconduo or Qatol would end up picking CPR as town themselves unless told so? I think everyone but those 3 might end up thinking something like "well I'm not that good, better leave it to someone who's really good" which will almost certainly give the role to mafia. Yes it is possible that the #1 draft is mafia but I am fairly certain that mafia will send the guy who has the highest seed to pick CPR no matter of who the guy is, just to grab that role because if they manage to get that role it's going to get ugly. Therefore I think we have to deny that role and hope the #1 draft is a townie. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote: I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. Yes I know you would. But if you are something like the #7 seed or even less mafia is going to have it. I doubt they are going to care about one goon. The CPR is like you said high risk but the advantages are even higher. +1 Kill in a mini is just ugly. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:19 sandroba wrote: @toad sorry i misread your post. You think mafia is more likely to get it if we don't assign it. Maybe you are right. But they also have to risk becoming vanilla unless they get number 5 spot. Number 5 can always pick cpr anyway if he is town. So it's really comes down to probability of mafia getting an specific spot, which is always the same. I think the CPR is way more dangerous than the GF. Yes I agree the GF is strong but it's nowhere near as strong as a CPR in the hands of a SK or mafia. If we tell people that #1 picks CPR that's 15/20 (75%) chance that it's going to be a townie. If we tell people that #5 picks CPR that's a 19,36 % Chance that a townie ends up with the CPR role if my windows-calculator is correct (15/20 * 14/19 * 13/18 * 12/17 * 11/16) which means we're screwed. In short do no like The reason I do not like it is because of what I posted pregame: + Show Spoiler [click me!] + On May 09 2012 05:31 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 09 2012 04:44 talismania wrote: On May 09 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote: Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. If you're mafia and pick CPR as pick 1, then you will draw a lot of fire if you're still alive and the kp has been 2+ for three nights in a row or something like that. Also dangerous because #1 pick is likely to be checked by some role or the other. Probably still worth it, but not without its drawbacks. Just a little example for your: Mafia team: 3 (CPR + vig + RB/framer/GF/janitor) + 1 traitor = 4 => Town team = 11 people. So it's 11 vs 4 let's say town mislynches d1, which is not unlikely at all => 10vs 4 => nightphase with 3 KP => 7vs 4 and it's lylo after a single cycle. Who cares about what happens 3 cycles after the game started when you win in 2 cycles if you manage to not shoot into protection / vets / hider. Edit: And I'm not saying that because I think it's imba, it's more about that people should think about the set-up because mafia will most likely have an awesome plan if they're in irc or in a Mafia QT argueing about what's the best thing to do given the drafts. Mafia is probably not going to srew up the picks imo, but I could see townies screwing up the picks. That's why I am talking about those things because I think we need to be on an equal stage to start the game or it's instant gg :p There's some roles that are really nasty for both town and mafia and I think CPR is something mafia should never lay there hands on if town wants a chance. GF is pretty awesome as well given the changes and so is a pardoner if you use it the right way. Edit2: Oh and that's talking about a 3 vs 12 set-up. I don't actually know if it's going to be something like that. Usually a mini is 12 players and 3v9 or something like that, so maybe it's even a 4v11 setup, who knows :p Yes it gets a little better because the game got a little big better, so mafia KP was kind of nerfed because it did not increase while the townie number did. However we now got a SK with one KP as well. Yeah that guy might end up hitting mafia as well but I'd rather not count on that to be true and win myself. So in short: I don't think the situation got better and it's still as dangerous as it was pregame. I'd like to make it either: #1 Pick CPR #2 Pick CPR or #1 Pick CPR #2 Pick RB and let him RB the CPR. Personally I agree that the GF is a lot stronger than the usual GF but I don't think it could end up gamebreaking like the CPR will if it gets into SK / mafia hands. Same about janitor / RB / framer) so I do not think we need to deny those. If someone is not sure what to pick, go ahead and pick one of those. A one-time vengeful GF is not going to hurt town THAT much even if noone denies it that we need it gone no matter what. I think a nice townie blue role is about as good as someone picking GF / Janitor to deny mafia taht role because those are 1 hit only and RB / Framer are still really good for mafia but nothing like the other roles that were mentioned. So if someone is not sure if he really should pick a strong blue role pick one of those. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 02:48 Barundar wrote: Denying roles worked best in the last game I played, PYP:Interesting I think it was. I picked a recruiter GF at the number 3 pick spot in that game, but looking back I should have picked a CPR doc since it went to a mafia low down in the picking instead. That said I'm completely behind Sandrobas list. While on denying roles, copy cat is a very powerful mafia role, and it's not boring town role, so definitely consider it if you end up in the just below top range. (for those unsure why it's a good mafia role, town tends to spill what roles they have early, they can then snipe the roles they need and pick it up.) And I'm already fairly certain we have a town sandro this game based on his offensive planning and intensive questioning. While it's not something we have to decide yet, I would totally get behind a CPR on sandro, mass medic backup snipe game. While I agree we need to randomize our powerroles, PYP:I was also super easy because we maxed out blue roles. Without being too specific to avoid snipes, if you end up lowish in the list please pickup heroes like medics and be a hero, even if it's not a superman you can still win the game for us. Don't be afraid to pick up stuff like role cop either, you can tell a lot from peoples alignment through their roles, in the PYP's I have played mafia has never been afraid to pick mafia power roles. And lastly, regarding the traitor. I know some people got dissapointed when they didn't get a mafia role. Let me just say in all the PYP's so far, someone else has picked traitor as well, and when they didnt get it claimed in thread. Very easy to hunt down the guilty person from a short list then. Why do you think Sandro is town? There's multiple ways to pick for mafia and yeah I agree with the roles he pointed out (hell I pointed the same roles out pregame...) but mafia could pick other stuff as in I don't think the roles he picked are gamebreaking imba and we could win a game vs a time like that. Something like a mafia Mason/Pardoner would be equally strong as the things he pointed out. We however can not win a game vs a 3KP setup or even a 4KP setup if the SK shoots into town with 20 people in this game. That's a straight up lose for us. Not to mention that as I already said the roles he pointed out are strong but not gamebreaking strong. Yeah having town pick them sounds good and it's definitively a nice option for uncertain townies (at least) but a strong blue might be a little better or worse depending on who ends up picking the power and what it is. Frankly if I could get a hold onto that dayvig power I'd shoot Sandro in the face d1. That's what I think about your townread on Sandro right now and about his "yeah CPR is really strong in townhands as well" when there are only 3 people in this game that really are considered to be that awesome as town, IF they are town (read: it's Sandro, Qatol, deconduo) while there are 5 other people out there who desperatly want that role. So yeah we probably should leave it to those 3 and hope than NOT A SINGLE ONE out of those 5 (that's mafia + SK) gets a better draf than one of those 3 while hoping that alle 3 want that role, while hoping that all 3 of them are town because if one of those things we have to hope on is wrong we're screwed, but that's apparently fine with Sandroba. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I don't actually think the GF screws up that much. A Role cop would be nice for mafia and it might be somewhat nice for town but I really don't see it as a strong town role. Parrity Cop gets strong later in the game, as in it's weaker than a usual DT (without paranoid and shit of course). So I don't think the town DT roles are that strong. I'd rather have a townie pick tracker (!!!) or bullet-bob because those 2 are WAY stronger in town hands than the other 2 DT roles I mentioned above and the GF ability doesn't work against those 2. So I don't really see the GF being that annoying other than the vengeful part which is strong, but it's not messing with town at all. So again. Yeah the roles on sandros list are strong but they are not that strong that I'd consider them gamebreaking. A mafia or SK who can lay a hand on a CPR is gamebreaking and it's a straight up lose for town. What's the point of making a denial list at all if it's not roles that seem to be to powerful for mafia to have them we're discussing. It seems like Sandro and everyone agrees that a mafia CPR or a SK CPR is way more nasty than anything he listed, yet he tells us we shouldn't deny it because it could be a huge asset to town as well because mafia won't care about wether a nooby or a vet gets a hold on the CPR, they can just tell them what to shoot. I think it's something like that: It's INCREDIBLE HIGH RISK and somewhat high reward if we go for sandros plan and just hope that one of the vets ends up being drafted before every other mafia and SK and on top of that picks CPR instead of hider or vet. It's pretty much no risk at all for mafia and incredible high reward for mafia if they can lay a hand on that CPR thing. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Give me some time to think about it | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I still think Sandros plan is much nicer from a mafia point of view than a town point of view so I'm still disagreeing with that and would rather make everyone choose themselves than following that plan. So if someone can come up with a nice idea that would be great. I'm taking a break and maybe I'll have a genius idea while doing that break :p Or explain to me why a GF is so incredible powerful that it is more important to deny that role to Mafia than to have a strong blue role like a tracker / vet or hider in spot #1 would be. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 04:40 hiro protagonist wrote: nvm, the other hole is that if the person who is suposed to pick CPR is mafia, he can pick something else, and let his buddy grab it -___- nono, that's actually a good point. If we make it the way I said (make #1 and #2 pick CPR and force the RB to RB #1 on top of that?) that's np, because mafia can't pick something else and let his buddy grab it because #2 will grab it as well. Unless of course people do whatever they want to do (if that's the case making a plan is useless anyways so I'm assuming that's not the case) or if both #1 and #2 end up being mafia, but come on, how likely is that ^^ So what you said is true. The copy cat will get the power of whoever gets lynched d1. That way we need to make sure someone gets lynched d1 and it's np at all. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 04:43 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 04:38 hiro protagonist wrote: Unless we do a night start, the copycat will get whatever the role is of whos lynched first, unless that person flips vanilla. So how about this, we deny the role by having CPR on the the pick list, and then we have the assigied RBer RB em till we are sure of alignment. Should the first lynch drop vanilla, we Doc the CPR so copycat becomes a non issue. The only hole with this plan is if both the roleblocker and CPR end up in Mafia hands, whitch is highly unlikely. What if mafia gets RB but not CPR? then we have a dead mafia. CPR shoots RB. If RB is town he better rb's the CPR or he is toast. If he is mafia he better rb's the CPR or he is toast. That way we deny both CPR and RB with one pick! Unless of course CPR ends up being mafia. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 04:47 hiro protagonist wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 04:43 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: On May 15 2012 04:38 hiro protagonist wrote: Unless we do a night start, the copycat will get whatever the role is of whos lynched first, unless that person flips vanilla. So how about this, we deny the role by having CPR on the the pick list, and then we have the assigied RBer RB em till we are sure of alignment. Should the first lynch drop vanilla, we Doc the CPR so copycat becomes a non issue. The only hole with this plan is if both the roleblocker and CPR end up in Mafia hands, whitch is highly unlikely. What if mafia gets RB but not CPR? If mafia get RB and town get CPR: Townie does not shoot anyways. if mafia does not RB him, next morning CPR goes "hey! i wasent RBed last night!" = dead scum. If mafia get CPR and town gets RB, then mafias best power is constatly roleblocked = good for us. the issue is if mafia is suposed to pick CPR, but then grabs something else, and lets his buddy down the line grab it... that's why I assigned #1 AND #2 to pick CPR as a fool safety and we don't have that problem. The CPR shoots the RB (at least) the first night and if we force the RB to make what we want to to do, not by teling him what to do but by forcing him to do it or he's toast. That sounds awesome to me. Only way this could go wrong is a no-lynch or a mafia ending up with #1 draft in which case any plan to deny mafia the strongest role would fail, because they can simply pick it. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Oh and he's going to claim day-vig d1 (which will be a lie) forcing some guy to post his spreadsheet or he'll dayvig him. Luckily Palmar always finds a way to target the REAL dayvig d1 so he'll get shot instead and we won't have to deal with his new "style". | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
1) If someone who does whatever he wants to do we still have the CPR denied 2) We have the #2 draft for town information / a possible claim. If he get's a VT he knows #1 is the CPR, if he get's the CPR he knows #1 is not CPR which means #1 is something like a VET / Hider. Mafia is more likely to shoot into people from 1-10 than 11-20 imo because the early ones are more likely to get a blue role because they the chance of picking something that was already picked is lower making it a nice blue-hit for mafia, which is the reason a VET / hider is the only thing a townie would ever choose if he disagrees with our plan to deny CPR. Not going to say #2 should claim that, but that kind of information can be useful for a townie nevertheless 3) If #1 is mafia they can't just not choose CPR to give it to another mafia, because if that would be the case mafia would get the 2 most powerful roles that way. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 06:42 hiro protagonist wrote: EBWOP: Basicly, I think that using roles to control the top spots picks is superior to using double picks because: *power roles that can cotrol the cpr doc are more usful later in the game when we can use the role for towns advatage. * choseing a RBer denys' the role for scum. * Double picking will lead to VTowns, but not VScums. Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 06:16 deconduo wrote: If we do decide to go with set picks, we need to have a solid decision before the draft order goes through. Mafia will change their preferences based on what positions they get so we can't have any more discussion once the order is revealed. 100% agree. We make a plan, and there is no changing it after the draft phase. well we're only talking about one guy who is supposed to doublepick and I think we can deal with a single VT on top of what we're going to get anyways if that helps us with keeping KP low. Also it's nice information for the guy who ends up being a VT. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 07:39 Misder wrote: I would rather have RB be used for a more useful purpose than just defending him(her)self. RB differs from CPR and Janitor in that those two roles cannot be used as town whereas RB can be. Also, with your plan, we still cannot guarantee that the first person has CPR, which means that mafia can easily transfer it down to a scumbuddy without us knowing, which is extremely dangerous. I would rather have vanilla townies than risk having mafia have 2 KP. Imo Town RB is about the hardest role you can play. I think it's way easier to play a nice town-CPR even on day than it is to play a nice Town-RB. I say that although I totally agree with Qatol saying that the CPR is incredible hard to play the first 1 or even 2 days and totally agree with him saying that it's at least a coinflip considering wether a townie or a mafia get's hit. So no, I don't actually think you can put good use to a town-RB, especially not early on as in n1 and n2. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
What's the reasoning behind saying the Tracker is a horrible choice for town? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 08:16 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 08:12 Toadesstern wrote: Also someone (I think Qatol?) said something about the Tracker being a horrible choice for town. I actually like it way more than the two DT's and think it's the best information role together with gun-bob for town. What's the reasoning behind saying the Tracker is a horrible choice for town? Tracker only follows mafia/SK to the kill if they used their role to make the kill or they are vanilla. For example, a serial killer veteran would never seem to go anywhere if tracked. Similarly, a doctor mafia member protecting a teammate would be tracked to the teammate, not the mafia kill. that seems stupid. Why include a tracker when mafia / SK don't have to deliver the killing blow oO Do we have that stated by GM somewhere? Can the Tracker find out about a Goon mafia or a Goon SK killing someone when following them? If that's the case, yeah Tracker is really stupid for town but I can't think of GM including a Tracker if he can't track normal mafia / SK kills. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 08:52 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 08:30 Toadesstern wrote: On May 15 2012 08:16 Qatol wrote: On May 15 2012 08:12 Toadesstern wrote: Also someone (I think Qatol?) said something about the Tracker being a horrible choice for town. I actually like it way more than the two DT's and think it's the best information role together with gun-bob for town. What's the reasoning behind saying the Tracker is a horrible choice for town? Tracker only follows mafia/SK to the kill if they used their role to make the kill or they are vanilla. For example, a serial killer veteran would never seem to go anywhere if tracked. Similarly, a doctor mafia member protecting a teammate would be tracked to the teammate, not the mafia kill. that seems stupid. Why include a tracker when mafia / SK don't have to deliver the killing blow oO Do we have that stated by GM somewhere? Can the Tracker find out about a Goon mafia or a Goon SK killing someone when following them? If that's the case, yeah Tracker is really stupid for town but I can't think of GM including a Tracker if he can't track normal mafia / SK kills. It's in the role description. Show nested quote + This is also how it worked in previous PYPs (PYP2 for example).On May 06 2012 03:06 GMarshal wrote: Tracker Follow someone and find out the first person they visited that night. (role abilities supersede alignment based abilities for the purpose of tracking. E.G if you were to track a scum roleblocker, you would see who he roleblocked, not who he killed. If you tracked a scum Veteran, you'd see him stay home, even if he carried out a kill, as his role ability (Veteran) is what you track, not his factional kill) well that is stupid. In that case I agree, the Tracker is retarded for town. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I tell everyone that making sure mafia can't grab the CPR should be number #1 priority and we should make it something like #1 CPR #2 CPR or #1 CPR #2RB and that Sandrobas plan sounds more promising to mafia than it does for town and everyone is like "screw that guy, Sandroba is right, Toad is just telling bullshit". Just that people don't call me retarded this game because GM would probably modkill for that, so it's a more pleasent way of calling me retarded while still meaning the same. Qatol gets in here, basicly tells the exact same things I've been telling people and everyone is suddenly like "well that guy has a point! That sounds really awesome and logical! We should totally do that!" You've simply got to be kidding me. But yeah I'm fine with not getting credit for the basic idea and telling people they are wrong in sheeping Sandroba and that we should instead try to deny the CPR 100% as long as people end up doing the right thing. That way Qatol gets shot and I'm safe while being the hero town needs. + Show Spoiler + If that's not a nomination for Drama Queen award I don't know what else I need to do to get that award | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
It just strikes me that I am apparently doing the right things every single game (except for AC!) but am completly failing at making clear why I am doing those. Everyone calls my cases retarded, even if I copy & paste them from a skype log with Sandroba and apparently my "case" on why we need to deny those KP roles and especially the CPR to was crappy as well because everyone disagreed with it yet people think that Qatol is right with everything he said. Funny thing is that I thought I covered most things myself. I did an example showing that we can lose after 2 cycles if mafia gets the CPR to show how gamebreaking that role could be and people didn't say a word about that, yet when Qatol said the same thing (he called it slowing down the game) everyone agreed about it. It was merely a funny (?) observation. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 15:22 Carolus Magnus wrote: Sure you know where it is. You don't know the alignment of the dude though. So your plan is to tie even more roles to prevent Cpr from acting. That imho sucks balls. That are 4 other possible kp sources so by the time you can establish constant kp is being used it doesn't matter much anymore. If you invest so much into denying cpr mafia will simply not try to get and leave useless cpr in towns hands and get an advantage for free. They can ensure colision to avoid any of the very top spots easily. I'm not assigning GF because it's stronger than other kp roles, it's because 1) It's useless for town, so mafia can get it a relative low spots if we don't assign it; 2) It has 1 kp AND is imune to role checks. Very strong for scum, specially if we don't know where it is. nah the plan right now is really just to to make it #1 CPR #2 Janitor #3 Rnd between CPR and Janitor for maximum wifom and confusion! So we really don't add more roles in there to deal with the CPR. I'm just saying that I think a town RB is almost useless but it's still decent or good for mafia. So if someone wants to deny that we might as well put it to use and make it a fool-safety for the CPR. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2012 23:14 Bluelightz wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 23:06 Toadesstern wrote: the point about those DT plans is that we usualy don't have 20 cycles to find out what's going on... Good point T_T, but scum does thin out the herd though, Toad what do you think of how dangerous is the roles I pointed out? angry vig, traitor, pardoner and politician? Angry vig is nice for mafia because as we're trying to keep KP low there's people who are going to pick into vet / medic / jailor (that kind of stuff) and 2 KP just kills those things even if they end up targeting the protected guy. So if you are somewhat at the top I agree, picking angry vig might be a nice option as well. Traitor is a no-brainer. It straight up buffs mafia and nerves town while making sure you end up playing with the buffed party and you might end up screwing the town plan on top of it (which is why I still like the double assign for CPR). Considering strenght of the roles this one is probably stronger than GF and the likes but not stronger than a CPR. However, a Traitor that is not able to be a real mafia later on is really lame to play and it's about the most boring role you could imagine. Pardoner is somewhat of a gimmick role. It gives mafia one additional cycle in worst cases and if mafia have a lot of CP that's a lot. So if Mafia could grab CPR and one more KP thing that could end up devasting. However no townie would ever use this role. Never ever. So everyone who gets pardoned is probably considered to be confirmed mafia so the only use I see in a Pardoner is to either give mafia the one additional night phase as a play of time or to just pardon a townie lynch, which is a wasted cycle and on top of that peoople will think the townie is a mafia and lynch him again. So it's really 2 more cycles. I think it's really powerful gimmick-role when used the right way. People I talked to pre-game however didn't agree on the powerful part. Politician I don't see him as a huge threat. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 16 2012 07:39 deconduo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2012 07:23 slOosh wrote: Hider is strong because you are saving yourself (unlike medic) and its infinite KP proof (unlike vet). Getting stacked is highly unlikely given the setup, and the angry vig only has one shot. The chance of dying by hiding behind the wrong person far outweighs this benefit imo. I would take vet over hider any time. you can't die by hiding behind the wrong person, unless you are talking about hiding behind someone who's going to die very early making your protection vanish. But yeah I agree I'd choose vet over Hider as well. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 16 2012 07:56 deconduo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: On May 16 2012 07:39 deconduo wrote: On May 16 2012 07:23 slOosh wrote: Hider is strong because you are saving yourself (unlike medic) and its infinite KP proof (unlike vet). Getting stacked is highly unlikely given the setup, and the angry vig only has one shot. The chance of dying by hiding behind the wrong person far outweighs this benefit imo. I would take vet over hider any time. you can't die by hiding behind the wrong person, unless you are talking about hiding behind someone who's going to die very early making your protection vanish. But yeah I agree I'd choose vet over Hider as well. I think you misunderstand the hider role. If I hide behind X and someone shoots X, we both die. oh, true. Just more reasons to pick vet over hider. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Probulous probably doesn't know the game has started yet. He never posted something and GMs phrase makes it look like that happened. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Everyone agreed that denying CPR and Janitor is better for town than the best blue role could ever be for town. denying CPR is basicly a medic that saves the right person on every night and if you ended up saving 5 people cycle 1 - 5 with a medic but didn't save someone night 6, congratz you're worse than a normal CPR pick as a town medic. We had more than enough time to talk about this and EVERYBODY agreed. At least nobody disagreed although we told people to speak up if they disagree with the plan and nobody did. We already talked about why changing the plan isn't an option anymore once numbers are out. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
We sure as hell don't talk about plans anymore because as mentioned, we can't change them once the numbers are out so might as well use the time to talk about scumreads when we're "not allowed" to talk about something else. Because I still want Sandroba dead. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Too early to say something about him imo. Will comment on him the next 48-ish hours. Risk has basicly claimed traitor with his most reason post. On May 16 2012 20:13 risk.nuke wrote: So many plans, I'm going to think on this. I may or may not follow them. I may or may not tell you if I decide to follow them. Honestly though, your arguments arent nearly as persuasive as you think they are. Because the only reason to think of "town could lose before d3" as a not persuasive argument is if you are not town or if you are considering to pick Traitor. Not sure if Risk is smart enough to do that on purpose as a townie to lure mafias into picking Janitor when he really never considered to pick something else and only wanted to look like he is considering something else. Also take a look at how cocky he makes that sound. So really he either is a genius town right now who tries his best at wifom and uses fake-emotions on purpose to screw with mafia or he's mafia himself / willing to play mafia. Sandroba is usually a really smart man. A really really smart man. He destroys mafia within 2 cycles of a game or even within the first.That's the usual Sandroba So far what I saw from him pregame wasn't that smart as all because frankly he should have realized that making sure CPR is not in mafia hands has to be the #1 priority to at least have a chance as town. So those 2 are my biggest problem right now. Fancy conclusion Sandroba looks really bad imo Risk either looks incredible good or incredible bad. Not sure which one but there's pretty much nothing inbetween. Prepost Edit: Oh and yeah. I said the rolecop looks more like a mafia role in this setup but given the situation I'd love a town rolecop to figure things out right now. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 16 2012 21:21 zelblade wrote: I personally feel that we shouldnt be talking about scum reads, not at this point when roles are confirmed. Doing so may influence a heavily scrutinized scum player to pick up something like GF giving them a free kill if they get lynched. Also rolecop is definately useful for town. Hey Toad why are you explaining risk's actions for him? You just gave him the perfect excuse if he was scum and trying out a plan. Sure we might have a rolecop to confirm things, but theres always the chance mafia could pick it up. Back home: Because it's no problem at all and we got a pefect solution for the risk thing. I would not have explained this if it was really troublesome. Here's what we got: If Risk is Mafia he picks janitor because it's good. If we see someone use that power, we lynch him = gg because we lynched a mafia If Risk is Town he either sticks with the plan and will never use the janitor and therefor be one of the most powerful blue roles we've got = gg, that's what we want If Risk is town and seriously considering Traitor we lynch him the moment we see a janitor = gg. We either completly denied the Janitor although Risk picked Traitor because if they use it risk is dead or we lynched a Traitor. If Risk is town and picking something else that is not Traitor he's playing against his wincon. That's why I explained it. I have no idea what's going on in his mind but it's not even an issue. And the biggest problem for our plan is if #1 or #2 picks Traitor. However with Risks posting we have a DAMN GOOD reason for both of them not to pick traitor. Risk gets lynched if he picks traitor and #1 is scared as shit that Risk might really pick traitor. If #1 picks traitor and #2 picks traitor as well (as he claimed) we have a townie who knows of a townie that is Traitor. #1 simply can't risk that and has to stick with the plan #2 has to pick Janitor or he gets lynched So while Risks post looks incredible bad (for reasons I already mentioned) I don't actually have a problem with that because that very post is forcing him and #1 to stick with the plan and therefore incredible pro-town although it might not be intended that way :p Still catching up. Will post on the fly. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 01:03 deconduo wrote: I just realised it would be suicide for me or risk to pick traitor. 3rd pick RNGing between CPR/Janitor stops us from doing so as well as stopping us dropping the roles down. I hadn't really planned to take it, but its good that its definitely not an option now I suppose. exactly. If #3 is something other than VT we lynch into #1 or #2, depending on wether the coinflip made him pick CPR or janitor. So again, I really don't have a problem with talking about why traitor is a possibilty for both you and Risk, because we've got shitloads of reasons for you not to pick that will get both of you instalynched if you decide not to stick with the plan :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 01:03 risk.nuke wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 00:55 Toadesstern wrote: On May 16 2012 21:21 zelblade wrote: I personally feel that we shouldnt be talking about scum reads, not at this point when roles are confirmed. Doing so may influence a heavily scrutinized scum player to pick up something like GF giving them a free kill if they get lynched. Also rolecop is definately useful for town. Hey Toad why are you explaining risk's actions for him? You just gave him the perfect excuse if he was scum and trying out a plan. Sure we might have a rolecop to confirm things, but theres always the chance mafia could pick it up. Back home: Because it's no problem at all and we got a pefect solution for the risk thing. I would not have explained this if it was really troublesome. Here's what we got: If Risk is Mafia he picks janitor because it's good. If we see someone use that power, we lynch him = gg because we lynched a mafia If Risk is Town he either sticks with the plan and will never use the janitor and therefor be one of the most powerful blue roles we've got = gg, that's what we want If Risk is town and seriously considering Traitor we lynch him the moment we see a janitor = gg. We either completly denied the Janitor although Risk picked Traitor because if they use it risk is dead or we lynched a Traitor. If Risk is town and picking something else that is not Traitor he's playing against his wincon. That's why I explained it. I have no idea what's going on in his mind but it's not even an issue. And the biggest problem for our plan is if #1 or #2 picks Traitor. However with Risks posting we have a DAMN GOOD reason for both of them not to pick traitor. Risk gets lynched if he picks traitor and #1 is scared as shit that Risk might really pick traitor. If #1 picks traitor and #2 picks traitor as well (as he claimed) we have a townie who knows of a townie that is Traitor. #1 simply can't risk that and has to stick with the plan #2 has to pick Janitor or he gets lynched So while Risks post looks incredible bad (for reasons I already mentioned) I don't actually have a problem with that because that very post is forcing him and #1 to stick with the plan and therefore incredible pro-town although it might not be intended that way :p Still catching up. Will post on the fly. This is called selective reasoning. And my response to that is. Haha no. No it's not. We are trying to deny two roles that are by far the most powerful roles for mafia and are either bad or not good for town. A vig with infinite bullets sounds nice but it's really not THAT good, but a medic who saves 1 townie GRANTED every night for free without being able to be roleblocked or getting killed (hint, it's still the Town CPR. I'm talking about the denied KP every night) is the really powerful part of the town-CPR. For mafia the doubled KP is obviously the strong part. The Janitor however is somewhat strong for mafia. Not even half as strong as a mafia CPR but it's still strong. At the same time it's a completly retarded role for town because it does nothing, so no townie would choose that which makes it a no-brainer for mafia, which is the reason, we want to deny that. That's the strong part about the janitor. So no, there is no reason for a townie to pick anything other than the janitor in your position and it's not selective reasoning. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 01:11 deconduo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 01:07 Toadesstern wrote: On May 17 2012 01:03 deconduo wrote: I just realised it would be suicide for me or risk to pick traitor. 3rd pick RNGing between CPR/Janitor stops us from doing so as well as stopping us dropping the roles down. I hadn't really planned to take it, but its good that its definitely not an option now I suppose. exactly. If #3 is something other than VT we lynch into #1 or #2, depending on wether the coinflip made him pick CPR or janitor. So again, I really don't have a problem with talking about why traitor is a possibilty for both you and Risk, because we've got shitloads of reasons for you not to pick that will get both of you instalynched if you decide not to stick with the plan :p Yeah and so the only reasons for risk not to want the plan to succeed are: -He's town that wants to take traitor safely -He's scum that wants to be able to use janitor without getting lynched -He's SK that wants a better role than janitor or he's a townie trying to look like that and therefore making every other townie not choose traitor because he "is" already traitor. I don't care about his alignment, the moment we know he's not a janitor we lynch him and that's about him. No rolecop needed, no thing. It won't get any clearer. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 01:18 risk.nuke wrote: I'm Town. I still don't understand your reasoning to why you think I would pick traitor. You're just wifoming your own head dizzy. I'm not going to pick janitor. I'm not just saying I'm not going to pick janitor, I'm really not goin to pick janitor what are you going to do about that toad? we're going to lynch you if that happens because you're playing against the town wincon. Therefore you either get banned if you do that or you will flip mafia / SK / traitor. I don't have a problem with either of those. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 01:26 risk.nuke wrote: This me thing is not at all interesting. If I were SK which toad belives there is a decent chance I am I would never had put myself this high on the draft because highdraft's are likelier to get killed. If I were mafia I would never bitch like this because I'm bringing alot of attention on to myself. Toad needs to understand that saying something is the logical conclusion does not make it the logical conclusion. and you need to understand that I consider your play perfect for town if you are town with a perfect environment which is the reason I played like that as well until I realized that it's kinda dogmatic because a perfect environment will never happen. I stopped playing bw when SC2 was announced so no clue if the annology is still fitting but consider a guy who's half paralyzed and therefore can't properly play like someone who's not. Consider that he'll never ever have more than 40apm due to that situation. Would you tell him to play 2 hatch muta in ZvT because it's the way to go? No you would tell him to adjust his strategy according to the situation. You're not paralyzed but you have to play with other people and ESPECIALLY with all the new guys around there will never be a perfect situation like you are dreaming of. A mafia who has at LEAST the slightest clue about what he needs to do will have no problem at all getting enough people mistrust you to get you lynched with his buddies or at least get a NL. So while you might figure out all the mafias there are in a heartbeat with that strategy as town (and you will if you do that), you will still hurt town and at least the people who are easy to manipulate won't listen to you because of mafia. So no. I do not think you are a SK right now. I am not sure what you are and I am not sure if you are smart enough to pull the "trick" I was talking about as town, neither do I know if you are smart enough to realize the huge drawbacks to that strategy. That's why I was talking about it. If you are looking scummy on purpose to achieve something that's nice for you and town should be able to figure that out but there will always be people who don't figure it out forcing Kita to fake a greencheck on Toad to protect him from being lynched from retarded-townies who aren't able to figure out what is going on. Believe me I very much understand the situation Risk and I don't want that kind of confusion, even if it is supposed to help town. Again I don't know what's going on in your head right now but that's one of the options I am considering about you and I explained it to preemptivly stop a risk-lynch because as you can see a shitload of people are already considering to be mafia. Simple as that. If you choose something other than Janitor you WILL be lynched and we don't need people to look scummy on purpose to make other people not choose traitor or good mafia roles and this is the only warning you will get. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
So please, pick randomely no matter what | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 04:55 talismania wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 04:20 Toadesstern wrote: OH and @slOosh please flip a coin or true-randomize it somehow like that. Please don't get influenced by this risk-shit and think that you have to choose Janitor know that risk has told people that he might not choose Janitor. It is very much possible (although incredibly paranoid^^) that that is the goal for mafia right now. So please, pick randomely no matter what What? Where is this post coming from - what does sloosh have to do with the janitor pick? Oh I looked at page 1 for the drafting results. He's the 3rd who signed up 8( Was talking about marv. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 04:59 risk.nuke wrote: It still doesn't make sense. Oh and I warned you I'm not playing along your shit plan. Don't come whining later. whatever. You had 24hours to say something and you did not. You only now started to talk about the "shitty" plan and you did not talk about it, only once the Role-PMs were out you started talking about it. So yeah, we WILL lynch you the moment we see a janitor in action. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If you are going to playing anti-town I will make sure you get lynched with everything I can do. Maybe I even got the dayvig :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 05:35 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 05:09 Toadesstern wrote: We all agreed to a plan before the game started. If you are going to playing anti-town I will make sure you get lynched with everything I can do. Maybe I even got the dayvig :p Toad, it only makes sense to lynch him for playing anti-town if he is also the strongest candidate out there to be mafia/SK. Trust me, he isn't. Besides, we can adapt easily enough - just have [UoN]Sentinel take Janitor. He may or may not get it depending on what marvellosity takes. But at least we have insurance. It can be frustrating for something like this to happen, but this is the best we can do right now. Do you really think he can possibly be town if he ends up being NOT janitor? Don't you think a townie would have just told us about that? If he told us about that this whole situation would be no problem. We could have made a Plan-B for this scenario or everyone else saying that they won't stick to the plan. But he did not. I am not trying to get him lynched. In fact I am the guy telling people (like deconduo) that it is very much possible Risk is town and has some weird plan that in his mind imagination will somehow end up helping town while still picking Janitor to not get him lynched d1 although he looks bad right now. Unless of course we got confirmation that he actually is mafia (read: if he ends up picking something other than Janitor). | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 06:00 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 05:43 Toadesstern wrote: On May 17 2012 05:35 Qatol wrote: On May 17 2012 05:09 Toadesstern wrote: We all agreed to a plan before the game started. If you are going to playing anti-town I will make sure you get lynched with everything I can do. Maybe I even got the dayvig :p Toad, it only makes sense to lynch him for playing anti-town if he is also the strongest candidate out there to be mafia/SK. Trust me, he isn't. Besides, we can adapt easily enough - just have [UoN]Sentinel take Janitor. He may or may not get it depending on what marvellosity takes. But at least we have insurance. It can be frustrating for something like this to happen, but this is the best we can do right now. Do you really think he can possibly be town if he ends up being NOT janitor? Don't you think a townie would have just told us about that? If he told us about that this whole situation would be no problem. We could have made a Plan-B for this scenario or everyone else saying that they won't stick to the plan. But he did not. I am not trying to get him lynched. In fact I am the guy telling people (like deconduo) that it is very much possible Risk is town and has some weird plan that in his mind imagination will somehow end up helping town while still picking Janitor to not get him lynched d1 although he looks bad right now. Unless of course we got confirmation that he actually is mafia (read: if he ends up picking something other than Janitor). I don't dispute that what he's doing is very much anti-town. That being said, I don't think he's the strongest candidate for lynch/ day vigi on day 1 for several reasons: 1. Copy Cat. There is a role out there good enough that risk.nuke is willing to call all of this onto his head for the chance of taking it. I don't want to see whatever it is copied because it's likely a pretty strong role. I'd rather go after someone a little bit lower in the picking order. 2. I have found a much stronger candidate for the day 1 lynch. 3. Yes, I think it is possible that he is town but is stubbornly doing his own thing. It happens. Look at Bill Murray in PYP1 for example. He also decided to go rogue on the town out of nowhere, but was a townie himself. At least risk.nuke told us now that he isn't picking janitor so we can do something about it. I'm not saying that he doesn't merit watching carefully in the future, but I don't want to see him lynched right now. I totally agree with you. I don't intend to get him lynched d1. I'm just making sure everyone understands what he does. If we find out about him not being Janitor we find out about it d2 because the d1 flip was missing or later. So I really never intended him to be lynched d1. I still think we need to lynch him d2 no matter what if we see a janitor in action though. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I've started out with: VET / hider / bullet-Bob / Day-Vig / Doc / RB / Witch / Mason / Joat and reduced it to 5, Mason being one of them, so no idea yet. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Not to mention I like the wifom about wether mafia should dodge me or should shoot me :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 08:11 marvellosity wrote: On risk: normally people who resist plans so vocally are actually townie, scum tend not to risk it (forgive the pun). It's not the point that he is resisting the plan. The fact that he was fine with the plan before Role-PMs went out and changed his mind once he got his role PM is the troublesome part. Yes usually people who are that vocal don't turn out to be mafia but he could very well do that on purpose. Remember how I played in LI and WBG said "no way Toad is mafia. He said VE is mafia and told us that he hasn't even done a case on VE when asked about that. Mafias aren't usually talking about things like that so transparent" and I ended up being mafia although wbg was perfectly right with his statement. I already said to blue in another thread it's not about wether it's "normal" for mafia or town. It's about wether or not it's normal for the specific guy and if you think he has the balls to do that as mafia. I think he would have the balls to do it, making it a null for me. And on top of a null I have a guy who ignores everything what's going on while we have multiple people telling everyone that we can't change the plan once Role-PMs are out and that guy comes in here once Role-PMs are out telling everyone that he want's to destroy the plan on purpose. If he does that he is mafia. If he isn't doing it he's a townie who thought it's a good idea to draw attention away from the traitor by looking like a mafia on purpose. We'll find out about it d2 :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 09:20 PaqMan wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 09:04 Toadesstern wrote: On May 17 2012 08:11 marvellosity wrote: On risk: normally people who resist plans so vocally are actually townie, scum tend not to risk it (forgive the pun). It's not the point that he is resisting the plan. The fact that he was fine with the plan before Role-PMs went out and changed his mind once he got his role PM is the troublesome part. Yes usually people who are that vocal don't turn out to be mafia but he could very well do that on purpose. Remember how I played in LI and WBG said "no way Toad is mafia. He said VE is mafia and told us that he hasn't even done a case on VE when asked about that. Mafias aren't usually talking about things like that so transparent" and I ended up being mafia although wbg was perfectly right with his statement. I already said to blue in another thread it's not about wether it's "normal" for mafia or town. It's about wether or not it's normal for the specific guy and if you think he has the balls to do that as mafia. I think he would have the balls to do it, making it a null for me. And on top of a null I have a guy who ignores everything what's going on while we have multiple people telling everyone that we can't change the plan once Role-PMs are out and that guy comes in here once Role-PMs are out telling everyone that he want's to destroy the plan on purpose. If he does that he is mafia. If he isn't doing it he's a townie who thought it's a good idea to draw attention away from the traitor by looking like a mafia on purpose. We'll find out about it d2 :p It's possible he's just trying to bait scum into picking janitor so that they end up being vanilla. You have a good point but I really can't imagine scum waiting until after the draft order is posted then purposely act against a plan that was agreed upon by everyone. Throw in the fact that he's making a huge deal about it as well. He could have just as easily not told us his intentions. About the first. I know. I am not talking about this because I think he is mafia yet. As mentioned at least 5 times I am not sure about his alignment. He is a null to me. I am talking about this to make sure we end up with everyone being responsible for their actions. If you do stupid things I don't want you lynched unless I know you are smart. That's kind of the situation with Sandro right now. But if you do stupid things out of nowhere although we had a 24 hour timefray to talk this through and still keep to those things although everyone in the thread tells you to stop it because we all agreed on something 48 hours ago I will happily lynch you. That's the difference here. You don't lynch stupid people. You lynch people who do stupid things on purpose with a mindset of hurting town. That's what I'm talking about and I'm trying to make sure everyone agrees to that kind of responsibility (that's not the word I'm thinking of... but it comes close to it) because if you are hurting town on purpose that's the line that got crossed that should make everyone realize where to put the vote. That hasn't happened yet but I'm bored and I want this game to FINALLY START. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 09:35 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 09:20 PaqMan wrote: On May 17 2012 09:04 Toadesstern wrote: On May 17 2012 08:11 marvellosity wrote: On risk: normally people who resist plans so vocally are actually townie, scum tend not to risk it (forgive the pun). It's not the point that he is resisting the plan. The fact that he was fine with the plan before Role-PMs went out and changed his mind once he got his role PM is the troublesome part. Yes usually people who are that vocal don't turn out to be mafia but he could very well do that on purpose. Remember how I played in LI and WBG said "no way Toad is mafia. He said VE is mafia and told us that he hasn't even done a case on VE when asked about that. Mafias aren't usually talking about things like that so transparent" and I ended up being mafia although wbg was perfectly right with his statement. I already said to blue in another thread it's not about wether it's "normal" for mafia or town. It's about wether or not it's normal for the specific guy and if you think he has the balls to do that as mafia. I think he would have the balls to do it, making it a null for me. And on top of a null I have a guy who ignores everything what's going on while we have multiple people telling everyone that we can't change the plan once Role-PMs are out and that guy comes in here once Role-PMs are out telling everyone that he want's to destroy the plan on purpose. If he does that he is mafia. If he isn't doing it he's a townie who thought it's a good idea to draw attention away from the traitor by looking like a mafia on purpose. We'll find out about it d2 :p It's possible he's just trying to bait scum into picking janitor so that they end up being vanilla. You have a good point but I really can't imagine scum waiting until after the draft order is posted then purposely act against a plan that was agreed upon by everyone. Throw in the fact that he's making a huge deal about it as well. He could have just as easily not told us his intentions. About the first. I know. I am not talking about this because I don't think he is mafia yet. As mentioned at least 5 times I am not sure about his alignment. He is a null to me. I am talking about this to make sure we end up with everyone being responsible for their actions. If you do stupid things I don't want you lynched unless I know you are smart. That's kind of the situation with Sandro right now. But if you do stupid things out of nowhere although we had a 24 hour timeframe to talk this through and still keep to those things although everyone in the thread tells you to stop it because we all agreed on something 48 hours ago I will happily lynch you. That's the difference here. You don't lynch stupid people. You lynch people who do stupid things on purpose with a mindset of hurting town. That's what I'm talking about and I'm trying to make sure everyone agrees to that kind of responsibility (that's not the word I'm thinking of... but it comes close to it) because if you are hurting town on purpose for your own good that's the line that got crossed that should make everyone realize where to put the vote, no matter if the "own good" is to get better reads or if it's a mafia agenda, due to what I said about this not being a perfect world That hasn't happened yet but I'm bored and I want this game to FINALLY START. EBWOP Corrections in bold | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Unless GM isn't ranking Sandro as a vet at all if he get's to be mafia. But that sounds really far fetched so I'm just going to assume I was wrong on Sandroba right now. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 10:33 Toadesstern wrote: Could you include the Drafting results in the OP below the Player list GM? I always have to search that thing... screw that, you already did it. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 10:27 Qatol wrote: I would like to point out that this in no way confirms Mattchew. The main reason for this is because the Copy Cat just got the CPR Doctor role. If you got the role, claim it and don't use it. If nobody claims the role, I'm going to have to assume it went to an anti-town player. Why would you kill one of your own just so the copycat can get the same role? Makes no sense. If mafia have a copy-Cat it would be reasonable. If I could someone know wether or not mafia or SK has a copycat or not (modconfirmed) and it turns out to be "yes they have a copycat", I'd rather play with decunduo alive being the CPR and lynch him d2. Simply because if they have a copycat we don't know who might be that guy and have to look for the CPR. In Decunduos case we at least knew where the CPR was. So if mafia / SK has a copycat our situation isn't really better than 24 hours ago, maybe even worse. If mafia / SK don't have a copycat we're obviously in a really good position and give that decunduo ended up being #1 I don't really know if mafia would want to pick the copycat. They got the CPR without a problem. Usually they would not have a need for that role any more because they already have the strongest role. About the Shot: I think it confirms mattchew half way. If he ends up being mafia I'll eat a hat. Yes it's still possible he's still mafia and this was planed to get the CPR somewhere safe because +1KP is more valueable than decunduo / one buddy but that's soooo unlikely. The major problem I have with Mattchew is that I have the same feeling about him I had about drazerk when he insta-dayvigged into VE. So it could be entirely possible that Mattchew is actually the SK. I somehow doubt he'd do what he did as a townie. But there's no point in talking about that right now. That all sounds incredible paranoid and "what if"-ish so I'd rather follow Qatol's lead right now. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
[QUOTE]On May 17 2012 21:24 Toadesstern wrote: [QUOTE]On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: [QUOTE]On May 17 2012 10:27 Qatol wrote: I would like to point out that this in no way confirms Mattchew. The main reason for this is because the Copy Cat just got the CPR Doctor role. If you got the role, claim it and don't use it. If nobody claims the role, I'm going to have to assume it went to an anti-town player.[/QUOTE] About the Shot: I think it confirms mattchew half way. If he ends up being mafia I'll eat a hat. Yes it's still possible he's still mafia and this was planed to get the CPR somewhere safe because +1KP is more valueable than decunduo / one buddy but that's soooo unlikely. [/QUOTE] Why is it sooooo unlikely?[/QUOTE] don't think mafia would all-in like that giving away half of their team 10 minutes into the game on a coinflip. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
place 2, 3 and 4 all failed to do what they were supposed to do because although they all were fine with it before alignment went out. Memo for myself: Next time suggest #1-4 CPR, #5-8 Janitor That being said I like Qatol but I'm not really convinced by the case. Do you have someone else? I'm think a Risk lynch would be nice to teach him a lesson on why you don't look scummy on purpose but I guess lynching into a null will get me as banned as he will be if he ends up being town. So blue it is for now. He's usually VERY MUCH in peoples faces and you can see that "pre-game" (before d1 started, not sure how to call it) but I don't see that right now. No "guuuuys, this guy is clearly town, this guy as well oooh and that guy over there as well. Not willing to lynch THAT" shenanigans at all. ##vote Blue Sandro did you end up getting Mason? I did not go for it but didn't feel like telling you due to my read on you prior to the mattchew thing. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 03:55 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 03:47 Toadesstern wrote: Ok summary: We had a nice plan to deny mafia CPR although we have a dead mafia which is awesome, mafia probably still has the CPR and we don't know WHERE. place 2, 3 and 4 all failed to do what they were supposed to do because although they all were fine with it before alignment went out. Memo for myself: Next time suggest #1-4 CPR, #5-8 Janitor That being said I like Qatol but I'm not really convinced by the case. Do you have someone else? I'm think a Risk lynch would be nice to teach him a lesson on why you don't look scummy on purpose but I guess lynching into a null will get me as banned as he will be if he ends up being town. So blue it is for now. He's usually VERY MUCH in peoples faces and you can see that "pre-game" (before d1 started, not sure how to call it) but I don't see that right now. No "guuuuys, this guy is clearly town, this guy as well oooh and that guy over there as well. Not willing to lynch THAT" shenanigans at all. ##vote Blue Sandro did you end up getting Mason? I did not go for it but didn't feel like telling you due to my read on you prior to the mattchew thing. Firstly stop with the ban talk. Secondly we don't lynch to teach someone a lesson. Thirdly I think we're better off using the appropriate bluechecks on risk during the night than we are lynching him right now. Yes. That's exactly what I just said. Thanks for pointing it out again in proper english. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 03:59 Snarfs wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 03:54 Qatol wrote: You guys, unless you're going to commit to making a long analysis, don't bring up a new target for lynch. This kind of lazy/impulsive lynching is a way to get us in trouble. We're just going to divide the town and wind up letting the mafia control the lynch or destroy the productive atmosphere we had earlier. Also, because I don't think lynching Mattchew is a good idea right now, I'm going to stop taking about him and focus on PaqMan. Not much to analyze in my vote. Sentinel said he would do one thing (which would benefit town), then did another (thus, benefiting mafia) while not making it clear that he didn't do the thing he intended to do (making it seem like he tried to benefit town, when in fact benefitting mafia). Why would town do this? Marv and Risk did the exact same thing. I'm pretty sure one of the 3 is bound to be mafia but I have no idea who out of those 3 it is yet. Do you want to lynch into a three-way constellation like that when all you know is that one of them is probably mafia? I don't think that's a good idea. Hence, we leave all of those 3 alive while telling them how anti-town that behavior was no matter if they had a genius plan behind it or not because frankly they failed horribly with their genius-plans to save the town. We've got than enough time to figure that out this day or the next day and make an (at least) educated guess on who of those 3 is the guy to lynch instead of just lynching into them. So if they proceed to do things like that, fine we lynch the guy who proceeds to do thigns like that. If they stop it we try and figure it out BEFORE lynching into them. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 04:04 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 03:59 Snarfs wrote: On May 18 2012 03:54 Qatol wrote: You guys, unless you're going to commit to making a long analysis, don't bring up a new target for lynch. This kind of lazy/impulsive lynching is a way to get us in trouble. We're just going to divide the town and wind up letting the mafia control the lynch or destroy the productive atmosphere we had earlier. Also, because I don't think lynching Mattchew is a good idea right now, I'm going to stop taking about him and focus on PaqMan. Not much to analyze in my vote. Sentinel said he would do one thing (which would benefit town), then did another (thus, benefiting mafia) while not making it clear that he didn't do the thing he intended to do (making it seem like he tried to benefit town, when in fact benefitting mafia). Why would town do this? Marv and Risk did the exact same thing. I'm pretty sure one of the 3 is bound to be mafia but I have no idea who out of those 3 it is yet. Do you want to lynch into a three-way constellation like that when all you know is that one of them is probably mafia? I don't think that's a good idea. Hence, we leave all of those 3 alive while telling them how anti-town that behavior was no matter if they had a genius plan behind it or not because frankly they failed horribly with their genius-plans to save the town. We've got than enough time to figure that out this day or the next day and make an (at least) educated guess on who of those 3 is the guy to lynch instead of just lynching into them. So if they proceed to do things like that, fine we lynch the guy who proceeds to do thigns like that. If they stop it we try and figure it out BEFORE lynching into them. And that's pretty much the same situation for mattchew here. I'm sure it was weird as shit and I am SO CONFUSED about it because if someone would have asked me pre-game if mattchew had to balls to do something like that as town I would have told him "Never". Scum makes no sense from his point of view as well as Sandroba has pointed out. SK makes a little sense imo but it's still weird. That's why I am confused. However I am pretty sure we can figure him out the next couple of days, hence we leave him alive and try to understand what happened and why it happened. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I thought none of those 3 picked janitor and now we have confirmation that 2 picked it? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ? Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ? Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 05:11 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote: On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ? Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet. so lets say risk is janitor... why is he voting sent?... why would a townie lie to allow us to mislynch someone? Do you think it's something that is necessarily scummy? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 05:20 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 05:16 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 05:11 Mattchew wrote: On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote: On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ? Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet. so lets say risk is janitor... why is he voting sent?... why would a townie lie to allow us to mislynch someone? Do you think it's something that is necessarily scummy? Are you asking if lying in order to mislynch a townie is scummy? nah I am asking if he considers lying as a townie (wtf?!?!) as someting scummy. Obviously the mislynch part is bullshit and I ignored it. The guy has 2 votes and already flipped town according to mattchew. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 05:11 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote: On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ? Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet. so lets say risk is janitor... why is he voting sent?... why would a townie lie to allow us to mislynch someone? 1) We've got 2 votes on sent 2) We don't know if it's a mislynch if it were to happen, although I agree that he's looking good. That's why I ignored that part. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Yeah he voted him but come on. Do you see anyone backing him up? Do you see anyone saying stuff along the lines "well that's great logic! That makes me sure you are town risk"? I don't see that, therefore I don't consider it a push, therefore I don't care about his vote right now because it could be just to stick with his "thing" right now, whatever that thing might be. I'm not saying risk is town, although if he really is the janitor he is most likely town. I'm saying that I have no clue who the liar right now, all I have is a guess based on my reads but I'm not willing to lynch into one based on a guess when we have enough time to figure out a better lynch. And it's really easy to figure out what's going on between risk / marv / sent within 1 or 2 days. Why would you guys be willing to lynch into that BEFORE we know what's going on in that constellation if it is really obvious that we WILL have a better idea about it the next couple of days. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well. I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read. Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit. Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy. Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too. However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it? Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town. So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't, I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue. If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD.... | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 06:40 Toadesstern wrote: + Show Spoiler + Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well. I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read. Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit. Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy. Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too. However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it? Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town. So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't, I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue. If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD.... EBWOP Walls of text like Qatol did. Not Sandro. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 06:59 sandroba wrote: @Toad What exactly is your reasoning for me being mafia? You keep saying I look weird and I'm scummy but you don't provide any reasoning. And because I didn't agree on the cpr thing being denied is not a good reason, but I'm not going to get into that, because I don't wanna flood the thread with obsolete discussion. So the facts we got so far are the following: Risk claims he didn't try for janitor. I know you said you wouldn't, but can you explain why, since you posted that you thought that role was worth denying? Marvelocity claims he didn't go for janitor nor cpr. Again, why is that? Sentinel claims he tryed janitor and didn't get it, thus vanilla. A role or bulletbill check could work in his case, narrowing it down to marv or risk, or finding out he is mafia. My reasoning for you being scummy is that you are usually a very smart man but so far I haven't read anything smart yet. And yes I would consider what you posted so far as not-smart-at-all. @2nd paragraph: And if mafia has a framer we're screwed big time. See what I am referring to when I said you are usually a smart man? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 07:33 sandroba wrote: @toad you are just not smart enough to realize what i posted previously is smart @palmar based on what? I see no reason to do so as of now, specially on day 1. so who do you think is the best lynch for d1? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote: I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 08:22 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote: I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? just to make it clear because apparently people (hint: marv) are not getting what I am talking about when I am not explaining it explicitly and while I usually do that on purpose it's 1:30 am right now for me, so no time for games. I was referring to this one: On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote: I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. You are the guy who says "give me KP and I'll give you dead scum". You are the guy who thinks CPR doc is equally good in towns hand because it's an infinite bullet vig. Clearly you don't want a noob to take it but someone like you would be really good with a CPR. Clearly you know that you tend to die early a lot if you are mafia. Remember saying something along the lines of "I'm sick of getting shot n1 as town" when we hydraed? Your train of though is just way off. 1) You want CPR to shoot n1, because apparently you die early A LOT as townie and if you don't shoot n1 what's the point of infinite vig because you usually get shot as townie n1 or n2. 2) You don't want noobs to get the CPR (I hope) because noone wants another AC happening. 3) Yet you still say it's incredible powerful due to the fact that it's infinite bullets which is just not adding up considering what I just said. 4) And you get in here telling us that we should no lynch now because you are apparently not sure at all about people. What happened to the guy "give me CPR and I'll give you a dead mafia" down the road? What happened to "cpr is awesome for town as well", what's the reasoning behind thinking CPR is awesome for town. How is that guy town. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 08:32 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 08:22 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote: I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? just to make it clear because apparently people (hint: marv) are not getting what I am talking about when I am not explaining it explicitly and while I usually do that on purpose it's 1:30 am right now for me, so no time for games. I was referring to this one: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote: I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. You are the guy who says "give me KP and I'll give you dead scum". You are the guy who thinks CPR doc is equally good in towns hand because it's an infinite bullet vig. Clearly you don't want a noob to take it but someone like you would be really good with a CPR. Clearly you know that you tend to die early a lot if you are town. Remember saying something along the lines of "I'm sick of getting shot n1 as town" when we hydraed? Your train of though is just way off. 1) You want CPR to shoot n1, because apparently you die early A LOT as townie and if you don't shoot n1 what's the point of infinite vig because you usually get shot as townie n1 or n2. 2) You don't want noobs to get the CPR (I hope) because noone wants another AC happening. 3) Yet you still say it's incredible powerful due to the fact that it's infinite bullets which is just not adding up considering what I just said. 4) And you get in here telling us that we should no lynch now because you are apparently not sure at all about people. What happened to the guy "give me CPR and I'll give you a dead mafia" down the road? What happened to "cpr is awesome for town as well", what's the reasoning behind thinking CPR is awesome for town. How is that guy town. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote: My suspicions on Bottom 10: Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting. Please, feel free to request me for more opinions. vote Sandroba and you're fine :3 Reasoning has been given. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. + Show Spoiler + Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor? Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke? Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch? This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote: @Toad and Qatol By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them. We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3. On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town. Which is not indicative of alignment, yet This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. 1/3 is horribly bad... You don't lynch into people that have a 1/3 chance of flipping red.... If I would consider sandro to be 1/3 I wouldn't even have mentioned him To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. WAAAAT?!?!?! Yeah, let's lynch into a green, shall we? @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. Yes you are. You say so yourself right below this My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Awesome, you consider ALL three could possibly flip mafia? Wtf and you really consider lynching into them? That's not an educated guess. That's a straight rnd-lynch equal to the chances of a policy lynch hitting mafia Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. If I would consider Sandroba to have a chance of 1/3 to flip mafia I wouldn't even have mentioned him lol. 1/3 chance to flip mafia is HORRIBLY bad. So no, lynching INTO one of those 3 WILL cause confusion. There's multiple people having multiple opinions and everything things someone else is the most likely townie in this constellation. If you can figure out 2 (!) of them are mafia FOR SURE (as in 85%+) fine, we lynch the 3rd guy. Unless that happens we don't lynch into them. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Plus we get 0 information out of a Risk / marv / sent lynch because there's so many different opinions on that matter. Why would you possibly want to lynch into something that has a 1/3 chance to flip mafia when you have an about 100% chance to know their alignment the next day. This is just beyond me. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far. If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie. So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies. How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia... Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that. A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK... might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else. Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra. That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation. Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Consider my reads from C9++. That's what I had on d1 in C9++ #2 + Show Spoiler [picture] + Hinthint: Every town read was right. Mafia team ended up being VE + foru + Ace. Here's my sheet considering those 3: + Show Spoiler [picture] + Yes I'm that awesome now please just trust me for once. Marv and Senti both are looking really townish and I REALLY doubt they have a chance to flip mafia right now. Marv is ACTIVLY asking me ALL THE TIME what I am talking about when I am not explaining my thoughts. That looks a lot like a towny who's ACTIVLY trying to figure out what's going on in peoples head. That's one of the biggest town tells in the game. Could it be faked by a good mafia? Hell yeah, it's d1, but I have no reason to believe so yet. Senti claimed VT who tried to pick Janitor. Think about the situation. Would a mafia claim that? Both Risk and Marv claimed they are not janitor. If we somehow figure out they really aren't he is INSTA-BUSTED. If he is mafia he shoveld his own grave with this action. Not today but d2 or d3 because if we find out about one of Risk / Marv being janitor (which is highly likely) he is insta-dead. High risk of dying for mafia, about 0 gain. IF sent is mafia he went for a 1:1 trade with that statement. I am more than happy to take that trade, because we WILL figure that out soon enough without having to randomly lynch into one of those. Risk is looking somewhat townish but he might as well be yellow. That's the one read I'm not sure about but I'm not willing to lynch into a yellow read either. THE ONLY THING people are talking about are the lies. Liar doesn't mean mafia. I caught VE lieing in my first 30-man game. He claimed day-vig d1 in a game with an election and it was obvious to me that he was a liar and I was right about it. I came to the conclusion that he has to be a mafia because of that, which was completly bullshit. He lied because he wanted to win the election for mayor because he knew his own alignment and thought a 100% proven town as mayor is better han a somewhat proven player who's a vet (VE wasn't considered a vet back then). Long story short: Someone lying doesn't mean they have to be mafia all the time, especially if they have a good reason to lie about it and you ALWAYS have a good to lie about your role. ALWAYS. I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. About the same situation for marv. Fancy conclusion: I'm not even sure if one of them is mafia. Yeah it could be one of them is mafia but it's not bound to be like people said. If sent would have picked something else it would have been a whole other situation and THAT's why people started voting them because people misunderstood what sent said. Now that sent cleared those things up it should be clear that neither of them makes a good d1 lynch. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 13:12 PaqMan wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy. If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that. A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK... might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else. Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra. That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation. Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1. Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote: We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia... 1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here. You're getting an award for this. 1/4 is true random lynch, aka a lynch into someone without a second of a though done by a random generator. Yes 1/3 TRUELY are aweome odds... And no I am telling you to only lynch people when you are AT LEAST (!!!!!) 50% certain they'll flip mafia. Everything else is a mislynch. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 13:38 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town. This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations: 1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking. 2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended. I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him. ##Unvote: PaqMan ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel Just this one question: If sent is mafia, why did he take the risk to claim VT who tried to take janitor when both Risk and marv said they haven't picked janitor. That's an instant death for him if they really did that. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 13:47 Misder wrote: @Bluelightz As mentioned, one of them is lying about not having the Janitor role. Town cannot use Janitor in any way that would actually benefit town; therefore, only scum would have any reason to keep silent. @Toad Why did you want to assign Janitor pre-draft then? Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 12:02 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote: @Toad and Qatol By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them. We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3. I also don't get how we get confirmed mafia. Janitor PMs during the night when he wants to clean up bodies. I don't understand why we want the Janitor to use his power at all. mostly because it's a mess for noobs and people tend to freak out about it although it it's not really that strong. It's more of a mental weapon than anything else. IF we have a janitor'ed d1 lynch: SENT is confirmed green because he told the truth about being a VT and knew there was a janitor. Also we know that there there's a mafia between risk and marv. We either get to 50/50 by lynching into a townie to have one less tomorrow or we get into 50/50 automatically by wainting while lynching someone else who is ACTUALLY SCUMMY. IF we don't have a jantor'ed d1 lynch: We still have a blue roles who can check those guys and all 3 have things to look into that are confirming the other 2 guys but there's only 1 framer (if at all) | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If we see a flip without role / alignment we know sent told the truth and one of risk / marv is a janitor => Therefore sent is confirmer town and one of risk & marv is pretty likely to be mafia. No townie would use the janitor power. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [EBWOP] + On May 18 2012 14:04 Toadesstern wrote: If we have a janitor in action. A lynch d1 that is not flipped. If we see a flip without role / alignment we know sent told the truth and one of risk / marv is a janitor => Therefore sent is confirmed town and one of risk & marv is pretty likely to be mafia. No townie would use the janitor power. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
What are you going to do if the flip ends up being without alignment / role due to the janitor? Go on lynching the other 2 as well? There's just a shitload of reasons not to lynch into those 3 until we're at least somewhat certain on who out of those 3 (if at all) is mafia. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If sent really is mafia he is a janitor, because he can't say he's a VT unless he knows neither risk nore marv picked janitor and he only knows that if he is a janitor himself or a mafiabuddy of his. So if sent really is mafia and he flipped without an alignment, what do you guys propose to do next? We have no idea abut what happend, 0 information (as I mentioned about 10 times) no idea wether we hit a mafia or hit a townie out of that constellation. Do we proceed to lynch Risk and Marv who are both town to go for savety or do we stop lynching them? Why do we stop? What's the point in only lynching one of them if one of the 3 is bound to be mafia (according to people...)? As you can see we would be forced to happily lynch into townies the next day even if a sent/risk/marv. lynch ended up being mafia If Risk is mafia he is the janitor because he was first to pick after decunduo and got the role. That way sent and marv both told the truth. That way a lynch would be concealed. 0 Information about wether or not we actually hit a mafia or not. Same as above. Do we proceed to lynch the rest? If not, why do we stop? What's the point in lynching just one of them when we think one of them is bound to be mafia but don't know if we hit mafia last night. As you can see we would be forced to happily lynch into townies the next day even if a sent/risk/marv lynch ended up being mafia. If Marv is mafia either Risk or Marv is the janitor. Both could be possible. If marv is the janitor same problems as above. If Risk is the janitor luckiest hit ever because that flip won't be conceiled. Lynching any of those 3 forces us to lynch all 3 of them IF one of them really is mafia. If none of them are mafia people will be "come on, we hit a townie, now it's 50/50, better luck next time" and the one after that "well that was bad luck, but we at least now know that the last guy is mafia" and that's 3 mislynches in a row and game over. If one of Risk / marv / sent is mafia lynching into them d1 is either pointless or it's game loosing depending on wether or not we keep on lynching until we hit mafia. Hence my point to wait for d2 at least. So again, d1 is not the time to lynch into those 3, even if you think they are mafia. It will cause massive confusion and it is bound to be a failure no matter what because we're either not told that we succeeded which will lead us into lynching 2 townies or we don't hit mafia at all for 3 cycles. You don't lynch "it's either X or Y" or even "it's either X or Y or Z" when a janitor is alive because you don't get information so get the fuck off those 3 and get your votes onto Sandroba or for all I care on somebody else. I don't even care if we policy lynch someone else instead at this point of time because lynching one of these 3 is RETARDED. So PLEASE don't lynch into one of them until you are really sure that ONE specific guy is mafia because only in THAT situation would be stop lynching with a conceiled flip. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
No player's role or alignment will be revealed upon death for that upcoming Day. I read that as "no lynch information" oO IF that's wrong screw everything I said and whatever. It's still bad to lynch one of them but we at least got a 33% chance to hit mafia... | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 14:34 Toadesstern wrote: Hey GM, does "no information on day" mean no information about nightkills once day started or does it mean no information about deaths happening on day, aka the lynch? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
We told townies not to use KP roles early on. So if it really is a night-kill janitor whatever, I'll vote sent to make a lynch happen but just to show you guys how wrong your are, so that we can carry on d2 and win this | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If none of those 3 come in here and explain the situation (aka who is the liar) prior to the lynch we at least have the chance to actually hit mafia because that way one is really bound to be mafia. And since it's too late to talk about this now because everyone's like "LYYYYNCH THAT" even if one of them is town noone will talk about it. I'll be the one yelling "told ya" if he flips town, just so you know :p Going to ignore the issue for now until the flip, not going to talk about it anymore. I tried everything I can and it failed :/ ##vote sent | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 01:06 zelblade wrote: Also I find the fact that people are using "Sentinel is a VT anyway, if we lose him we lose the least" as a scummy and lousy reason for their vote. Apply actual analysis instead of basing it on the potential loss please. Well I still disagree with the situation that we have to lynch into one of the three but at least that sentence is worth a fucking medal. Finally I feel like I'm not the only one realizing what's going on (Palmar and Sandro know what's going on as well but Sandro somehow ended up saying "Sent CAN NOT BE MAFIA, therefore we lynch him" which I don't understand) but sadly you have to show people that they are wrong by lynching the mod-confirmed townie and shove his green head up their way and yell "SEE?!?! SEEE?!?!?!". Sad thing that's how tl mafia works these days, so let us lynch the townie today and start off d2 anew with everyone realizing how stupid this lynch was. That way people might consider something else. If people are willing to lynch into someone with the reason "at least he WILL (!) flip VT". not even giving him a good chance to flip mafia, there's really not much to say about this that could change peoples opinion. It's not getting any more obvious, ever, and we'll have to go through with this at this point... | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 01:20 zelblade wrote: So Toad if that is what you think why is your vote on sentinel? Theres several hours left, use it to convince people (well or try to) to actually vote for who you think is scum? Also Palmar please dont use the pardoner power especially today. Whilst it possible the situation gets handled at night I dont want the flips to get covered assuming that janitor is in the game, and if all 3 are left alive the same shit will happen tomorrow. I tried to do that yesterday and Sandro ended up putting me on his ignore list agreeing with me and voting for senti as well while saying "we probably should no-lynch thought" hinthint: it's the same sandro that says stuff like [23.04.2012 19:19:06] Sandro Maculan: hmm yeah it might be [23.04.2012 19:19:14] Sandro Maculan: it's non optimal though [23.04.2012 19:19:27] Sandro Maculan: i really like to optimize stuff [23.04.2012 19:19:31] Sandro Maculan: specially day' [23.04.2012 19:19:33] Sandro Maculan: 1 But yeah, whatever, lynching a modconfirmed townie obviously is optimal play d1 and if that's not possible one should nolynch instead. Very much optimal play in my book as well. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 01:34 Mattchew wrote: I just can't believe that a town marv or town risk could be this arrogant to the thought process of the rest of town. Your role claims can help us lynch scum today. marv who do you want to lynch Risk is the KING of arrogance. The KING Even more than palmar because palmar gets annoyed at some point and will just shut up because of that and be like "whatever, let's lynch a townie" after nonstop talking to a wall for 12 hours. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 01:48 Palmar wrote: I don't actually intend to pardon people. From where I stand at the moment, Sentinel's claim makes absolutely no sense from mafia perspective. If we try to solve the puzzle given Sentinel is mafia, he basically has forced a triangle of lynch between him, risk and marv. This makes almost no sense at all because the mafia is already weak after getting deconduo shot 5 minutes into the game. The other two at the moment make much more sense. next medal going out. Exactly what I said 12 hours ago but maybe people listen to you instead like people listened to Qatol pregame although I said the exact same thing. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:06 Snarfs wrote: Toad, you keep tossing around "modconfirmed townie" in Sentinel's direction. What do you know that we don't? He said he's a VT and he said that either risk or marv is a janitor => He either is a mafia who tries to get himself lynched in a 1v1 fashion on purpose or he's a modconfirmed townie due to the set-up (only one role available). I don't think mafia try to lynch themselves. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
sent: I give sent] about 5% chance to flip mafia, tops. Marv: Honestly I don't see marv flipping mafia either because he's looking really townish, asking questions, asking what people meant (mostly what I meant) to say and stuff like that. That's a town attitude. I would usually say he's about 10% mafia 90% town but the fact that he played really bad in C9++ and nothing like that as a townie makes me think it's maye 20-30% mafia and rest town because he didn't play that way as town. Maybe coaching on how to play townish or mafia advice on how to play townish or he simply got better Risk: He's really ignorant, always, no matter of alignment. I could see him do this as both town and mafia but I'd give him a 50% chance to flip mafia. Agree / Disagree? Think we have a chance to get someone other than sent lynched? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:17 Snarfs wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2012 02:10 Palmar wrote: On May 19 2012 02:05 Snarfs wrote: Palmar, you say that Sentinel claiming VT is very unlikely for mafia, but if he had claimed anything else he would be going against a plan that he had agreed to before day 1 and would very likely be under fire anyways. By claiming VT, if he is janitor, he at least has a chance to survive until the night and hide the flip and whatever information that might contain. That's how I see it. You forget that sentinal did not have to claim at all. And if we lynch townie today, we're killing the other two anyway, so whatever. I don't think we would have forgotten about him if he just didn't claim. I agree with risk that it seems like he rushed into this without thinking everything through fully. Either way, everyone needs to be voting between Sentinel and risk.nuke at this point to ensure we have a lynch. So you think that after seeing 2 out of 3 people not doing what they were supposed to do according to our plan and the third flipping mafia he would be crazy panicing as mafia and "shitshitshit, they will lynch me if I tell them I didn't do what I was supposed to do"? Just a straight yes or no. Want to know if I need to talk you in the future. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 03:04 marvellosity wrote: Alright I've talked it over. I am mason and I chose the random townie option. This is not a breadcrumb but this was me taking a stab at what I believed zelblade had chosen given he said he was VT. If the thread thinks it is correct I will tell you who I got, for the mo I'm gonna exercise and have dinner. hey there. I picked mason and I got VT, just so you guys know. Not that it tells anything about his alignment but I believe his claim. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 08:44 hiro protagonist wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2012 08:39 Palmar wrote: I'm going to send in a pardon for sentinel. So either we lynch risk.nuke or we lynch no one. I approve of this. same here. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 09:25 risk.nuke wrote: + Show Spoiler + He's low on the draft. He took what he could get. As for why he is sk. As town Palmar is serious busniess. As mafia he can be both serious and lazy depending on his mood. As third party he's a troll. + Show Spoiler + Right now the scum is falling apart, this isn't good for the sk who wants to maintain a balance. Not lynching sentinel today will continue the chaos that's come from our triangle drama for another cycle. That's wrong and you know it. Ever since L Palmar decided to change his townplay. Since then he used to nonstop troll as all 3rd party, mafia and town HARDCORE. The difference (imo) in his style and how to figure him out is his wish to win the game. As Pretty much the same as wbg in LI, because I just don't see him being THAT concerned about the lynch. Palmar wants you lynched and is not willing to lynch sent AT ALL. Do you really think a SK Palmar would be anything like this? Hell no, he'd maybe try for 2 or 3 posts and afterwards stop talking to a wall and be like "whatever, I'm an SK". If Palmar is a SK he doesn't care about who gets lynched at all. Right now a SK probably wants town and mafia to die equally. There's possibly a shit load of KP floating around and killing townies won't be a problem, killing mafias however could be because they tend to die to lynches, one per cycle. What palmar does makes no sense at all if you consider him a SK. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 13:40 GMT
#1029
On May 19 2012 13:29 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote: On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play. Show nested quote + On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote: On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote: On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote: Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet. And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town. Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying. Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively: 1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd 2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd 3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla 4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla 5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor. 1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him? I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further: 1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.) 2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened: 2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars. 2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars). 3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him. So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early? Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying. If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated: We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target? I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates. hinthint: As you said, there have to be 2 liars OR risk is the liar because if Risk is the liar it all works with only one liar as well. Occhams razzor says we should lynch risk. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 13:41 GMT
#1030
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 13:44 GMT
#1031
Still don't understand why Sent wanted himself to be lynched, he had no reason to claim at all lol oO | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 19:32 GMT
#1049
On May 19 2012 23:37 Mattchew wrote: I think any townie with a gun should shoot barundar according to my sheet Sandro is mafia and Barundar is the SK. Sooooo, idk my read yesterda was horrible :p I will make it something like this post from now on until I adjusted accordingly, no pushing from my point until I am back on track. I'll give you a couple of updates on my reads but won't explain a lot and I don't even think anyone will take them into consideration given how d1 worked out. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 19 2012 19:47 GMT
#1050
I honestly still have no idea how noone in his team told him about that. That wasn't even a move like "herpederp I'ma going to vote myself"-so-stupid-mafia-would-not-do-it. It was a mafia-shot-mafia-at-night-stupid move. That's why I called him Town because I never could have imagined a mafia doing that mistake and rather thought it's a townie not having a clue what he's doing because I was really certain a mafia buddy would have explained him what he did if he was mafia. Random thought Massclaim is stupid and only helping mafia. Townies know what to do themselves and even if someone else who is a townie knew your role his advices are not going to help you because townie #1 makes decisions on the same information townie #2 has. Therefore massclaim would be free information for mafia with only very limited information for town. We could catch a mafia like that but they could just as well claim the truth or go for roles they know aren't around and claim VT (mason, Joat, stuff like that) and noone could really tell the difference between a townie and a mafia claim imo Next update from me tomorrow :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 20 2012 04:25 GMT
#1069
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 20 2012 14:05 GMT
#1083
It's only 2 and I doubt the SK would shoot into someone he/ everyone thinks so be mafia when 2 are already dead. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 20 2012 15:03 GMT
#1101
On May 20 2012 23:51 Bluelightz wrote: EBWOP: @Marv I made a spreadsheet on the night kills, the results: CPR (which I think is in Mafia hands): no | Mafia alignment kill : yes | talis SK kill : no | We know risk's vig shot went through so that confirms 1 kill What I think: Mafia kill is the one that went through as there is nothing preventing this as this is at the top of the tree of action resolution. SK Kill was blocked/ hit a veteran. CPR was roleblocked/ held his power (VERY UNLIKELY) What do you guys think? I'd say it's kinda unlikely that we managed to block 2 hits, therefore I'd say no copycatted-CPR and the SK hit a vet or something like that. It's at least easier of an explanation than that + another nighthit that was absorbed. Also consider we had a witch flip. Not sure if the witch can protect himself / herself (if she can she probably didn't use her power) but I'd say witch using the power n1 is definitely the way to go considering that we have so many people who are looking really good and you have an about 0 chance to accidently protect a mafia considering that mafia has to do something about those good looking people. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 20 2012 17:13 GMT
#1111
On May 21 2012 01:50 Zephirdd wrote: Show nested quote + On May 21 2012 01:08 Qatol wrote: On May 21 2012 00:49 risk.nuke wrote: Qatol what do you mean? Simple. I'm the Jailkeeper and I jailed you last night. Please explain why you haven't mentioned that the PaqMan shot wasn't your vigilante shot. You were roleblocked. Question: did you send the action to chaoser? Its possible that he didnt get the action if GM was offline, and afaik you must send it to both hosts. this or risk is scum and thats fucking awesome because that means I wasnt entirely wrong. Well if risk got roleblocked from Qatol you would have gotten the "you got roleblocked" PM no matter of alignment. As town he has no clue if he was roleblocked by a townie or a mafia. both would make sense given the vig claim and given the earlier idea to keep KP low early on because there's likely to be a lot KP from mafias side. So the important point is, if risk got roleblocked he knew that either way. So this is again some kind of shenanigans he's pulling on us to figure out mafia himself with a "trap" because I simply don't see him do that as mafia. He could have easily said he got roleblocked and said he did not shoot him as mafia. No need to lie because he knew (if there really are RB-pms, I don't know about that) he was roleblocked and a lie would bring him into the situation we had with sent yesterday just worse: Either the RB is a liar or the Vig is a liar and one of them has to be mafia. So if he is mafia he just burried his own grave when he had no reason to tell us such a thing. But assuming people know how to play mafia made me think sent was town as well so idk lol. I'm not going to make a conclusion out of that, just laying that information out because frankly it looks like people haven't realized it: Risk would have gotten the PM (if there is one) as mafia as well. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 13:12 GMT
#1162
On May 21 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote: Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway. well people said "we're lynching into one of the three" and all three of your were a topic. You were the least likely but people talked about you as well. Remember what I said about "come back to me when you think 2 of them are town and we're going to lynch the last one remaining or if you figure out one of them has to be mafia" ? That's the reason for the VT claim AFTER your mason claim. As Qatol said it shut up people talking about you and while I agree you weren't under heavy suspicion you were under suspicion as well. That way the "it's either Risk / marv / sent" thing turned into "it's either Risk or sent". Yeah I was wrong on sent but I at least cleared you for the day. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 13:26 GMT
#1165
On May 21 2012 22:17 zelblade wrote: Show nested quote + On May 21 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote: On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote: Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway. I agree it is more of a null tell than anything. Considering that sandroba already claimed before the end of the draft phase that he himself was going to pick mason, its highly possible that a scum toad weighed in that sandroba was more likely than not going to confirm your claim since he had no reason to lie about his pick and thus decided to buy some cred off the situation. Do you think I should have not claimed the VT? I think it gave marv's claim credibility and was the reason it went to "risk or sent" rather than "risk, sent or marv". So just for the sake of it: Just take the VT for granted, take the town alignment for granted and take the "I picked mason" for granted as well. Do you think it's bad for town if I claim in that situation? I'd say it helped a lot yesterday. You yourself say in the case of me being mafia I am a guy who wants to get cred, so you agree that it was good after all? Why think about a good thing (your words) and come up with some explanation that I did that good thing because I was forced to instead of doing something mafia-oriented. Read my statement again. Does that sound like a planned thing? Or does that sound like a "nice, I can confirm that" burst? Check the timestamps. Do you really think I would instantly post something like that without a second of a thought as mafia? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 17:45 GMT
#1173
On May 22 2012 02:23 slOosh wrote: True, true. I'm still of thought that Palmar is the last scum, as from the list of risk voters he is the least towniest. As for the 1 missing KP, if people aren't notified of saves then it is likely that mafia shot SK and they are in understanding that they need each other to win. Next day we need a majority lynch by clear margin lest we run into this "politician swapped my vote" shenanigans. What are people's thoughts on the mass roleclaim at day? I'm not sure because people expressed reservations but it may just have been for the night time and not the plan in itself. Pros are we might catch people with contradictions and it puts immense pressure on the anti town players, but cons are if they survive then they have a clearer idea of how to shoot (maybe?). I just don't see the point of the massclaim at all unless we got a 2nd sent... clearly at this point mafia has to know that a lie about the role will end up devastating. Therefore they could just tell the truth about their role, as sent could have and nobody can tell if it's a townie who's tried to deny a mafia role or if it's really just a mafia. Picture sent claiming Joat who tried to get the KP-role out of the way that can still just use the other actions to be pro-town. He would not have lied and I doubt he would have gotten lynched that way because it makes sense from a town point of view as well. So imo we still don't get a thing from a mass roleclaim while mafia gets complete information about our roles and where to shoot if they don't think the good looking people are not worth a shot for whatever reason. So what's the point of the massclaim... We might end up finding the politician lying but most people think that it's the SK because mafia politician would have caused a NL or a risk lynch yesterday but with all the information we already bursted out he's completly fine claiming VT who went for JOAT / vig / Mason as well so again I don't see the point in claiming. And for those of you thinking "stop giving mafia / SK advices". If I am smart enough to figure this out mafia and/ or SK are surely smart enough as well and talked about this kind of thing at some point in their rc / QT / whatever. I don't want us to give away all we've got (role information) because that's only useful for mafia so that's why I am talking about it. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 18:39 GMT
#1179
On May 22 2012 03:18 risk.nuke wrote: Sent agreed to pick janitor and then picked something else. No toad he could not had claimed joat and walked away from it. Roleclaiming: Yes the mafia can tell the truth which is what I always hoped for. With my ladder idea the roleclaim was never designed to create a Sent situation. It was designed to truthfully determine who picked what role and then we will to determine if someones claim and and actions are suspicious from a town perspective. And outing the last blues is hardly dangerous, we already have an outed vigilante, a jailer (who the medic should bloody well protect tonight, no wifom. Do it!), two confirmed masons if marv have the brains to claim before one of them dies. I am obviously talking about a scenario in which he would not have lied, as mentioned when talking about "they could have just told the truth". Thought it's selfexplaining that "telling the truth" = not lying for me.... If he would not have claimed VT who tried to pick janitor but instead from the very beginning shut his mouth and only claimed JOAT once he had to he WOULD have been perfectly fine. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 18:40 GMT
#1180
On May 22 2012 03:39 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2012 03:18 risk.nuke wrote: Sent agreed to pick janitor and then picked something else. No toad he could not had claimed joat and walked away from it. Roleclaiming: Yes the mafia can tell the truth which is what I always hoped for. With my ladder idea the roleclaim was never designed to create a Sent situation. It was designed to truthfully determine who picked what role and then we will to determine if someones claim and and actions are suspicious from a town perspective. And outing the last blues is hardly dangerous, we already have an outed vigilante, a jailer (who the medic should bloody well protect tonight, no wifom. Do it!), two confirmed masons if marv have the brains to claim before one of them dies. I am obviously talking about a scenario in which he would not have lied, as mentioned when talking about "they could have just told the truth". Thought it's selfexplaining that "telling the truth" = not lying for me.... If he would not have claimed VT who tried to pick janitor but instead from the very beginning shut his mouth and only claimed JOAT once he had to he WOULD have been perfectly fine. Unless of course you are talking about the "pregame" stuff and the plan. You and marv agreed to pick Janitor as well and didn't end up doing it. So that's apparently not a reason to lynch someone unless you & marv want to be lynched as well :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 18:57 GMT
#1183
On May 22 2012 03:52 risk.nuke wrote: I didn't agree to that plan. I specificly said it was a bad plan and I'll explain why in the post game if you want to. Most of you got bloody butthurt because of that and nearly mislynched me despite I was the without a question the least likely to be the scum. If you had just been able to produce the slightest amount of common sense you had seen how Sentinel was clearly the most suspicious which I think snarf was the one to quickly point out. We asked about 4 times in the first 48 hours that EVERYONE who does not agree with the plan to say it before alignment pm's are out. Noone disagreed but sandroba => everyone but sandroba agreed to it. You just completly bombarded it although we planned to go with it. If you would have just told us that you disagree with it there would have been no problem at all, but you didn't. That's the point. But you playing anti-town although you are town isn't even the point. The point is that a massclaim won't help us because we won't be able to figure out who picked what role with what reason. Mafia won't lie about their roles and simply say they tried to deny a town role. SK wil just claim something that's safe at this point (thanks to the marv / risk / sent thin it's already bloody easily to do that) and there's just no way to figure out that as well. Just lynch into scumreads instead of talking about massclaims when the chance to catch a scum like that is like 0,1%... | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 21 2012 18:58 GMT
#1184
On May 22 2012 03:57 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2012 03:52 risk.nuke wrote: I didn't agree to that plan. I specificly said it was a bad plan and I'll explain why in the post game if you want to. Most of you got bloody butthurt because of that and nearly mislynched me despite I was the without a question the least likely to be the scum. If you had just been able to produce the slightest amount of common sense you had seen how Sentinel was clearly the most suspicious which I think snarf was the one to quickly point out. We asked about 4 times in the first 48 hours that EVERYONE who does not agree with the plan to say it before alignment pm's are out. Noone disagreed but sandroba => everyone but sandroba agreed to it. You just completly bombarded it although we planned to go with it. If you would have just told us that you disagree with it there would have been no problem at all, but you didn't. That's the point. But you playing anti-town although you are town isn't even the point. The point is that a massclaim won't help us because we won't be able to figure out who picked what role with what reason. Mafia won't lie about their roles and simply say they tried to deny a mafia role. SK wil just claim something that's safe at this point (thanks to the marv / risk / sent thin it's already bloody easily to do that) and there's just no way to figure out that as well. Just lynch into scumreads instead of talking about massclaims when the chance to catch a scum like that is like 0,1%... EBWOP | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 11:10 GMT
#1223
We're missing one KP again. SK has 1 KP and mafia has 1 KP but there's only one dead guy and I guess whoever shot blue went for a save hit rather than someone looking good to avoid protection. So unless somehow SK and Mafia (going to use "mafia" for both SK and mafia from now on...) BOTH had the same idea and BOTH shot the exact same guy we're missing one guy. I'd assume Qatol jailed risk or marv and I'm pretty sure mafia assumed something along those lines as well. Or at least someone like Risk / marv. The imortant part is that Qatol can't jail himself, even if he could he would probably RB himself before protecting rendering the protection useless :p The the interesting part here is, did mafia shoot into someone like Risk / marv and we'll probably never know because Risk / marv won't get confirmation on that one according to Chaoser, or did mafia shoot Qatol because that would have been the reasonable thing to do if you want to avoid protection, unless of course there's a real medic around, however I'd take that risk over shooting into risk / marv without a second of a thought as mafia. Right now I'd assume Qatol did not jail risk and rather went for his #2 "target" because he said something along the lines "vigs shoot into XYZ" yesterday, didn't he? So he probably wanted risk to shoot because there's not a fantastillion vigs around anymore. Risk could tell us if he was RB'ed but he can not tell us if he was protected and Qatol could just tell us who he jailed :p However the interesting part here is why Qatol is not dead. He is the guy able to save everyones life except for his own. So I'd actually say the 2nd hit was Qatol and he was protected by a real medic. Can't imagine mafia not wanting Qatol dead right now when he's even the save-hit if there's no 2nd medic. Confirmation on who was RB'ed / protected / hit would still be nice to figure this out. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:03 GMT
#1229
On May 22 2012 20:18 Mattchew wrote: Toad qatol said he jailed marv and that marv nor himself took a hit and I agree with a sandroba lynch yeah exactly, however I only had the nested quote of this one in my mind, didn't see chaosers update until you just said that: On May 22 2012 04:58 chaoser wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote: On May 22 2012 03:41 Qatol wrote: What about if they are saved by being Jailed? Is the player doing the saving informed of the save? Reading back on old PYP games, jailkeeper saves do not get notifications while doctor saves do From PYPI: Jailkeeper You have the ability to lock someone in jail, preventing all night actions on a player of your choice during the night. This includes DT checks, bombs, night hits, and recruitment. It does not prevent roleblocks. You may not protect yourself. No one will be notified of any results. Jailkeeper can protect someone the night she/he gets killed. After reading logs with GM, I have to revise my answer and inform everyone that if someone is jailed and saved then both the jailer and the person who is saved will be informed. so I thought he assumed he would get a notification when really he would not. But that statement makes clear that he would have gotten an notification which brings us to our problem again: We have a jailer who can protect people but he protected someone that didn't end up being shot and we're missing KP => we probably have a medic or someone shot into a vet / hider. Pretty sure a vet and a medic would get a notification as well, not sure about the hider though. I'm just mentioning that because it could be an issue for the massclaim and I would like Qatols thought on that before starting doing anyting because if we have a medic that could change some things. I'm going to do whatever Qatol says because clearly he's carrying town right now but I want his comment on that one before starting everything to make sure he just didn't forget about that part. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:13 GMT
#1230
We have a claimed hit and people questioned that the first time. We still don't have a counterclaim à la "hey I got shot as well". Risk did not get shot and neither did Qatol / Marv according to them. So right now it looks like Zeph was REALLY shot and since he is a VT (he claimed Joat-VT or am I confusing things right now?) we have a medic OR zeph is a mafia / SK who hold his shot to savely claim being shot for towncred. But that's a little hypocritical considering I told him (or zelblade, lol) to stop thinking of worst case scenarios of things that make me look good. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:28 GMT
#1234
On May 22 2012 21:16 Zephirdd wrote: Also, witch could have protected me day1. He would have to chose between me and PaqMan, and it was pretty obvious I was the one to be protected >_> oooh. Screw everything I said. You were protected n1 and not yesterday... mixed that up, so we still have a missing KP? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:30 GMT
#1236
Playing by heart really gives me a hard time differentiating between all those claims... | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:37 GMT
#1238
On May 22 2012 21:33 zelblade wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2012 14:51 talismania wrote: deconduo [1,1] - Mafia CPR doc (DayVigged by Mattchew) risk.nuke [4,2] - Vigilante marvellosity [7,2] - Mason [UoN]Sentinel [9,1] - Mafia Jack of All Trades (Lynched Day One) Mattchew [11,x] - Day Vigilante zelblade [12,x] - Vanilla Townie (Picked JoAT) Bluelightz [13,x] - Town Rolecop talismania [15,1] - Town Witch Misder [2,2] PaqMan [2,2] - Vanilla Mafia (Picked ???) slOosh [10,x] Toadesstern [10,10] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Barundar [3,1] Zephirdd [3,2] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Politician) hiro protagonist [3,x] Palmar [5,1] - Pardoner Snarfs [5,1] Qatol [5,1] - Jailkeeper sandroba [5,1] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Probulous - Vanilla Townie (Modkilled) Assuming that we believe zeph's claim, this narrows down the SK to misder, sloosh, toad, and barundar. Since toad has already claimed VT I suggest we get the remaining three to claim for now. why can the SK only be misder, sloosh, myself and barundar? Marv can you get your townie to claim? Especially if it narrows it down further. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:37 GMT
#1239
On May 22 2012 21:37 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2012 21:33 zelblade wrote: On May 19 2012 14:51 talismania wrote: deconduo [1,1] - Mafia CPR doc (DayVigged by Mattchew) risk.nuke [4,2] - Vigilante marvellosity [7,2] - Mason [UoN]Sentinel [9,1] - Mafia Jack of All Trades (Lynched Day One) Mattchew [11,x] - Day Vigilante zelblade [12,x] - Vanilla Townie (Picked JoAT) Bluelightz [13,x] - Town Rolecop talismania [15,1] - Town Witch Misder [2,2] PaqMan [2,2] - Vanilla Mafia (Picked ???) slOosh [10,x] Toadesstern [10,10] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Barundar [3,1] Zephirdd [3,2] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Politician) hiro protagonist [3,x] Palmar [5,1] - Pardoner Snarfs [5,1] Qatol [5,1] - Jailkeeper sandroba [5,1] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Probulous - Vanilla Townie (Modkilled) Assuming that we believe zeph's claim, this narrows down the SK to misder, sloosh, toad, and barundar. Since toad has already claimed VT I suggest we get the remaining three to claim for now. Marv can you get your townie to claim? Especially if it narrows it down further. EBWOP: woops, posted inside the quote: why can the SK only be misder, sloosh, myself and barundar? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:40 GMT
#1240
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 12:53 GMT
#1248
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 14:53 GMT
#1262
On May 22 2012 22:58 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2012 22:49 risk.nuke wrote: Mattchew do you think snarf is scum despite posts such as these which was crucial to condemn Sentinel. + Show Spoiler [Mainpost] + On May 18 2012 03:36 Snarfs wrote: Sentinel said he would take Janitor if he had to: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 05:59 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I'll be cool with it, but I'd rather have risk cooperate lol. Risk please cooperate? risk made it quite clear he was not going to cooperate. Then Sentinel tries to make it sound like he attempted to pick the janitor role by adding a frowny face: When in fact we now know that the Janitor was not picked by anyone in the top 4. Sentinel lied then tried to make it seem like he didn't lie without actually lying anymore. That's good enough for a day 1 lynch to me. ##Vote [UoN]Sentinel + Show Spoiler [Example backup post] + On May 18 2012 04:47 Snarfs wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 04:45 Qatol wrote: On May 18 2012 03:59 Snarfs wrote: On May 18 2012 03:54 Qatol wrote: You guys, unless you're going to commit to making a long analysis, don't bring up a new target for lynch. This kind of lazy/impulsive lynching is a way to get us in trouble. We're just going to divide the town and wind up letting the mafia control the lynch or destroy the productive atmosphere we had earlier. Also, because I don't think lynching Mattchew is a good idea right now, I'm going to stop taking about him and focus on PaqMan. Not much to analyze in my vote. Sentinel said he would do one thing (which would benefit town), then did another (thus, benefiting mafia) while not making it clear that he didn't do the thing he intended to do (making it seem like he tried to benefit town, when in fact benefitting mafia). Why would town do this? What exactly did he say he would do which he didn't do? He said he would take Janitor. He tried to take Janitor. He claims he got vanilla instead. What about that is anti-town? Calm down a little and think this through, please. I'm not necessarily saying he isn't the best lynch target of the 3 (him, risk.nuke, and marvellosity), but I am saying that your logic for voting him isn't sound. This is why you need to do an analysis. And I still think PaqMan is a stronger target (sorry my post is taking so long - I'm at 6 pages in word and counting). All I'm doing is trying to get everyone to calm down and have an open mind about lynch targets. I clearly posted that with the assumption that risk.nuke was telling the truth. Now that there is new information, I am open to either a risk.nuke lynch or a Sentinel lynch. However, I still believe that the wording in Sentinel's posts seemed deceptive; whereas, risk.nuke has been completely clear and straightforward in his decision making. Is 1 mislynch on you worth looking bad to the rest of town? Sent took a risk (no pun intended) and he was going to hang for it day 2 if not day 1. Scum lost 1 kill and 0 overall kp from him dying and at the time, I think there was a strong voting force against you if I recall correctly. He speaks with a lot of certainty especially in a time where there should not have been much (IMO) from outsiders perspectives. On May 22 2012 22:54 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On May 22 2012 22:45 marvellosity wrote: On May 22 2012 22:42 Mattchew wrote: and I think that snarfs/sandroba is the last scum Based on? sandroba not really caring about the game or aggressively asserting himself as town leader snarfs cause his posts against sent feel like bus (which if you look at the situation retrospectively would be the right play as scum) and cause I believe that there is scum within all the [5,1] picks, and I don't think its palmar or qatol that's exactly what I thought as well. ///here be huge explanation that got deleted because of ongoing-games-rule, *hinthint*/// The part about Sandroba however is wrong. There's a bunch of reasons to suspect him but him not caring isn't alignment indicating at all. Remember C9++ #2? He made about 4 posts withint 3 days if I recall correctly and ended up being town together with me. The part that is worrying about Sandroba is that he really wants to play a perfect d1 as town and therefore wants to lynch into mafia no matter what, yet he came in here declaring that we should no lynch not even trying to talk about better alternatives. He could be lazy playind d3 right now bu I'd still say a lazy, d3 playing Sandro wouldn't suggest a NL out of nowhere. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 18:54 GMT
#1289
So short: we need that information^^ | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 19:06 GMT
#1290
On May 23 2012 03:47 slOosh wrote: Well that rules out hiro as SK, as if he were roleblocked then he would have died if shot, and there is still an unaccounted for KP, and no one chose to pick a defensive role (protective roles all accounted for if I'm not mistaken). Ok I'm not understanding that one. What does rule out hiro as SK and why. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 19:32 GMT
#1292
On May 23 2012 04:30 Misder wrote: Since no one has claimed the second shot tonight, we can assume that mafia shot SK, and since I roleblocked hiro, which would have gotten rid of the SK bulletproof, hiro would have died if he was SK. Therefore, hiro is not SK. (I actually did not think of this either) there's a problem to that conclusion qatol has already pointed out as well. Will talk about it once the claims are over :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 19:44 GMT
#1294
On May 23 2012 04:41 Misder wrote: That one of either mafia or SK did not action last night? I guess. Either way, I don't believe hiro is SK and more likely to be mafia. @ first: nah lol | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 20:28 GMT
#1297
People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred". Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? I'd say we lynch into Barundar or hiro depending on the last claim and you'll see why :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 22:12 GMT
#1308
On May 23 2012 06:43 marvellosity wrote: slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician. So we need him to claim atm. I don't think that's necessarily the assumption to go with. I have a few problems with the assumption that mafia shot the SK last night 100 %. I came to that assumption myself and said so a couple of hours before someone else pointed it out as well but I realized that it's not the only explanation. Same here. I find it hard to believe that someone would deny politician as town. I don't think that role is THAT strong except for the first lynch of the game. Ever after the first lynch the lynches tend to be pretty clearly in one direction. Not to mention that it would be a perfect claim for the real politician as well. He makes everyone on top of him (I'm talking about the list you kids :p ) look bad while he knows that noone else got that role because he himself has it. We don't have a role-Cop anymore to check that and there is no way to check it unless we lynch into something like 4 people to find out there never was a politician within the higher drafts the begin with. That all sounds really convenient imo. Not saying it's him. It just looks fishy imo. However we have to wait for barundars claim to figure this mess out, that way we at least know what happened with the missing night hit. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 22 2012 22:38 GMT
#1310
On May 23 2012 07:18 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On May 23 2012 07:12 Toadesstern wrote: On May 23 2012 06:43 marvellosity wrote: slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician. So we need him to claim atm. I don't think that's necessarily the assumption to go with.. Toad, I just meant that if all the claims we have are true, then Barundar must be Politician. I know, it's just not telling us anything. You're basicly saying "if all that was said so far is right the only guy who hasn't said a thing so far has to be the one not telling the truth" which is kinda obvious considering the fact that we're massclaiming and there's probably one guy who's a politician :p If barundar is not talking with us we lynch him. If he claims as well we look at everything from a "complete" point of view rather than speculation what might or might not be confirmed under the assumption that X, Y or Z is probably right. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 11:28 GMT
#1326
On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote: I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic at position 16 due to the fact that its rather likely that someone above them in the draft could have taken it, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade. Which means if we go by the assumption that hiro isnt making a (really bad) gambit barundar is the SK. And you think that what Barundar is doing is a good gambit from a mafia / SK point of view? I'd actually say what Barundar claimed makes less sense from a SK / mafia point of view because why the heck should he claim something wrong to get into a 1v1 ON PURPOSE. You're telling us that barundar is not a medic and told us he's a medic on purpose to get into the "it's either Barundar or hiro" position which makes just no sense. Problem here is that we're owning pretty hard right now and maybe mafia / SK want to give up like that. So either way, either hiro did a suicide attempt or Barundar just did a suicide attempt. Barundar fully knowing that one guy already claiemd medic (assumption: he is mafia / SK) which is nuts and playing against his wincon to just get over with this faster when he can't give up due to the other 2 factions still alive. Hiro did not know what barundar was about to claim so maybe he fakeclaimed hoping noone would claim medic. That would theoretically make sense if he's the politician. The politician-VT claim however was someone on a higher draft so that can't be the reason for a fake claim because as mafia he could have just claimed the truth. Only politician needs to fakeclaim in this situation. Fancy conclusion We lynch into one of those two and both actions are somewhat weird. I think barundars actions makes less sense from a mafia / SK point of view but maybe he did that on purpose after seeing how big of an issue that was when dealing with sent. So if the sent thing didn't happen (expectially the part about me being wrong) I would totally say lynch hiro first. However it did happen and therefore it could be on purpose. Not to mention that this could be a cheap "I give up" when a normal surrender is not possible with the other factions still batteling it out. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 11:41 GMT
#1327
##vote: hiro protagonist | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 11:41 GMT
#1328
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 12:10 GMT
#1330
On May 23 2012 21:07 zelblade wrote: Hey toad if you think that hiro is the SK that would mean that either 1) Theres a really really dumb townie who decided not to claim getting politician. 2) Zeph decieded to lie for no reason about his pick at a point he didnt need to. So unless you think zeph is scum and has decided to suicide, barundar is most likely the sk here. Even if im wrong (which I dont think I am) we could just lynch hiro tomorrow who would be confirmed SK and zeph who would be confirmed scum and win the game. I think we're lynching for mafia right now. Why is barundar most likely to be the sk here? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 12:29 GMT
#1338
Is that under the assumption that your claim (VT who went for politician) is true and therefore there has to be a politician higher on the draft than you are? If that's the reasoning yeah fine with me, I just don't take those things for granted because if I were to take something else for granted I could come up with another explanation that makes more sense. I just don't understand why barundar would claim medic (a role that was already claimed) instead of just something else. He was the last to claim and could have come up with something perfectly fine. If he really is mafia / SK he wants to end the game which is kinda hard to read because if that's the case he's trying to get himself lynched. But yeah, if barundar flips town medic we're lynching hiro and you. Hiro because he fakeclaimed medic and is SK / mafia. You if we still haven't found the SK by then and lynched into mafia. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 12:33 GMT
#1340
We have caught someone who wanted to be caught pants down. That's the thing right now and I don't know if that's his way to give up or if it's something weird. Anyways since I thought Barundar is the most likely to be SK (not mafia though) I am fine with the lynch based on the reads I had before claims went down. After claims went down it's just a coinflip. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 14:34 GMT
#1346
Could be a framer or a godfather as well. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 14:56 GMT
#1349
On May 23 2012 23:46 sandroba wrote: Framer doesn't matter. It doesn't hinge on sloosh not being scum, because as long as he is alive he has to confirm other players anyway. It hinges only on GF. well framer could frame someone else red making us lynch into that guy first and secondly probably lynch sloosh even if he tells the truth because everyone will be like "woooah, you lied, LYNCH HIM" after seeing a red check flip green. Which would be a NL followed by 2 mislynches. Yeah that's pretty much a worst case scenario but given that mafia has a good idea on who to frame it's like a coinflip if there really is a framer. And yes it is thinking about what could go wrong and not about what could go right but I think with out course of action we have right now we're fine because we're going to find a mafia/SK in either hiro or barundar. Pretty much no matter what. So it has some downsides (somewhat unlikely but totally scarry ones) but very little advantages imo. If hiro / Barundar is the SK we can't even shoot him that night and there's plenty of targets that could be shot right now, like risk, marv, snarfs, Qatol and so on. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 15:38 GMT
#1352
On May 24 2012 00:33 Barundar wrote: Didn't expect me to have picked doctor eh hiro? As I said it's smarter to kill Hiro first, since he is obviously lying to anyone who doesnt go by hear say but who actually reads the thread, but at least you are dead the moment I flip yeah I'd usually say you can't be mafia / SK but the same was already pointed out about hiro. On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote: I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic at position 16 due to the fact that its rather likely that someone above them in the draft could have taken it, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade. Which means if we go by the assumption that hiro isnt making a (really bad) gambit barundar is the SK. and here's what can be said about barundar: On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote: I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic after someone else claimed medic already, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade. Which means if we go by the assumption that Barundar isnt making a (really bad) gambit hiro is the remaining mafia. Both make equally no sense. I think IF hiro tells the truth barundar is going to flip SK and we still have the mafia left who claimed something else. I think IF barundar tells the truth hiro is going to flip mafia and we still have the SK left who claimed something else. Both stories make equally no sense and one of you is aiming for the "hey this makes no sense from mafia / SK point of view, it's got to be the other guy!", especially after sents flip. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 16:15 GMT
#1355
I just don't think there is a way to figure this out based on the role claims AT ALL. Both are equally mafia-esque. Barundars action makes a little less sense than hiros action from a not-town perspective but he could do that on purpose. I doubt getting the medic (if there is one) is a goal. I'd say the one who is not town out of those 2 gave up the game and wants to be lynched which makes it incredible hard to judge wether something makes sense or not from a mafia point of view. We should see to it that one of those 2 is lynched today, It makes no difference who get's lynched first except for the lucky factor if we hit mafia or town but there's just no reasonable way to figure this out. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 16:24 GMT
#1361
On May 24 2012 01:16 marvellosity wrote: Toad, I disagree. Snarfs comment explains why hiro is the superior lynch. I think so to but not by far and people wanted to barundar lynched first. I'm not exactly in a position were I can talk about 80% of the people and tell them to switch votes. I said Barundars action makes less sense from an anti-town position as well earlier when I was talking with Zephird but he and zelblade disagreed and so I stopped talking about it because as mentioned I don't really have the platform to do that in this game anymore. A hiry lynch is SLIGHTLY better but the important thing is that a lynch happens today so make sure we don't no-lynch please :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 16:51 GMT
#1367
On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote: If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK. If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK. If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK. (Right now, believing scenario 1 actually) ##Vote: hiro protagonist Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to who except for scenario two where he only got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 16:53 GMT
#1368
On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote: If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK. If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK. If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK. (Right now, believing scenario 1 actually) ##Vote: hiro protagonist Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 17:29 GMT
#1372
On May 24 2012 02:19 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 24 2012 01:53 Toadesstern wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler [clicky!] + On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote: If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK. If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK. If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK. (Right now, believing scenario 1 actually) ##Vote: hiro protagonist Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ Actually, there are several mistakes, but the big one is treating them like they are equally likely. In fact, I think scenario 1 is nearly impossible, if not completely impossible. I don't believe Barundar would suicide by giving us a 50/50 lynch when we can afford to mislynch. However, the conclusion is correct. Townies have no reason to lie right now. If hiro flips mafia medic, then Barundar has to be SK. I think the most likely situation is that hiro is mafia ____ (not medic), in which case we have a few candidates for SK - Zephirdd, Barundar, Toadesstern, and slOosh. (Note: either Zephirdd is the lying Politician or he is town and the role is actually above him, so we don't need to consider Palmar or hiro for SK. zelblade doesn't make sense for SK because, while he would know JOAT was in the first 4 picks as mafia, he would have no way of specifically claiming that role had gone as SK unless he tried to take it.) However, I think Barundar should be the last lynch on that list (assuming hiro flips red) and Toadesstern should be second to last. So really it's probably either Zephirdd or slOosh. Misder's conclusions are correct for the case in which hiro flips town. Barundar is an easy next lynch. Agree. I didn't realize that if hiro flips medics it makes barundar a liar lol. But yeah that one is really unlikely to happen. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 23 2012 22:55 GMT
#1383
On May 24 2012 07:44 hiro protagonist wrote: @zed, A few posts up from yours, I point out that the last scum is one of you, zel, or toad. should none of those turn out to be scum, I guess looking at sandro would be my next guess. sandros scum meta is to be super useful day1/2, and then transitioning into apathy for the game. So far I think he is just bored townie this game, but He is following his scum meta some what. @Snarfs, whoops, sorry I missed it he asked for scum. What you listed was zel, zeph and myself who all are a more or less reasonable guess for SK due to the politician claim and us being higher on the draft than the politician guy or being the politician guy ourselfes. So that's SK reads, not mafia reads. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 24 2012 08:00 GMT
#1399
So I'd say we're looking for a mafia and I hope my d1 read about Sandroba was right :3 | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 24 2012 17:54 GMT
#1413
On May 25 2012 00:13 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On May 24 2012 17:00 Toadesstern wrote: Barundar is on the SK list himself making it pretty likely that he will indeed just flip SK and not mafia, like we already said. Hiro had a chance to flip mafia and about no chance to flip SK and Barundar had a chance to flip SK but about no chance to flip mafia. So I'd say we're looking for a mafia and I hope my d1 read about Sandroba was right :3 Don't try to get fancy. Take the confirmed anti-town kill. It doesn't make sense to try and kill anyone other than Barundar tonight. yeah I know. I just wanted to emphasize that shooting into one of the SK targets is really bad if we are (probably) going to lynch into the SK tomorrow :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 24 2012 17:57 GMT
#1414
On May 25 2012 02:54 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 25 2012 00:13 Qatol wrote: On May 24 2012 17:00 Toadesstern wrote: Barundar is on the SK list himself making it pretty likely that he will indeed just flip SK and not mafia, like we already said. Hiro had a chance to flip mafia and about no chance to flip SK and Barundar had a chance to flip SK but about no chance to flip mafia. So I'd say we're looking for a mafia and I hope my d1 read about Sandroba was right :3 Don't try to get fancy. Take the confirmed anti-town kill. It doesn't make sense to try and kill anyone other than Barundar tonight. yeah I know. I just wanted to emphasize that shooting into one of the SK targets is really bad if we are (probably) going to lynch into the SK tomorrow :p EBWOP to make clear what I'm talking about: Obviously we shoot and RB barundar. IF that for whatever reason is not working (mafia is a RB or we have a traitor who can RB, idk) we lynch Barundar and only THEN decide what to shoot next. No shooting in other targets until we know wether Barundar flipped SK (pretty likely) or flipped mafia (pretty unlikely). | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 25 2012 12:06 GMT
#1435
On May 25 2012 15:49 risk.nuke wrote: I was roleblocked. Ok, there are 3 possible Roleblockers in the game: 1)]Roleblocker: That's what misder claims to be, right? 2)Jailkeeper : That's Qatol right? 3)Traitor: that guy has a one-time roleblock I'm saying "right?" because I'm really in a hurry right now. I need to go but this eather means Misder is lying or that we have a Traitor. I'd usually say misder claiming RB and roleblocking risk would be to stupid for mafia to make but after I saw sent flip and we're about to see barundar flip I'm not going to use that argument anymore Anyways I think a traitor is more likely although I don't know why. Sandroba still looks like a nice target for me considering his uselessness this game and how he made no sense the first couple of day and was playing against EVERYTHING he told me he likes to do as a townie in skype when he hydrad in C9++. That being said we obviously lynch Barundar first but may as well start looking for 1 or 2 mafias around and I'm off for the next couple of hours, as mentioned. ##vote Barundar | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 25 2012 21:09 GMT
#1457
On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote: I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote + I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote + People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred". Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town. 1) I said I think all 3 are town reads for me. Marv and Risk because they played like a townie and Sent because his action made no sense from a mafia point of vies (just like barundars...) so yeah, I thought it's possible that all 3 are townies early on which kind of changed but since I had townreads on all 3 of them I went with the one that had the weakest townreads, which was Risk. Also I said all the time that a 1/3 chance to hit mafia is terribly bad and that my read (Sandroba) was at LEAST 50%. So you're wrong it's a combination of both. I thought my read is WAY better than a 1/3. Check my filter before telling people I just randomly tried to not lynch into one of the 3. I said that Sandroba is a way better lynch and tried to get people on him. So that point is simply wrong, don't know if it's wrong on purpose or if you did that "case" by heart without actually checking me filter lol. 2) I would have done what I thought Risk did without voting sent. At that point in time I was hoping Risk had picked the janitor and didn't want to claim it to draw hits to himself instead of other people. So yeah if I was a Janitor in Risks position I'd definitely lie about it or at least not talk about it anymore after claiming that he / I did not follow the plan. How is that a contradiction? The reason I didn't like it was because he voted sent and I didn't believe he meant it because I gave him an about 50% to actually still have picked janitor. The reason I said a Qatol (or anyone else) lynch was about as good is because we had had a game with 1 modkilled townie, 1 SK and mafias which means a 1/3 chance to hit mafia really was a true-rnd hit, especially if you take a traitor for granted like I did. That's 6 anti towns in a 19 player setup. That IS 1/3, which was the reason I said 1/3 is not good. 3) About the Townie mindset: Qatol pointed that out when he found one of my very early posts where I ask Sandroba if he got the Mason. That was well before people knew wether or not Sandroba and I got mason. That was a trap of mine and Qatol said it's looking nice if I remember correctly. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 25 2012 21:44 GMT
#1458
+ Show Spoiler [#1] + On May 16 2012 21:01 Toadesstern wrote: Yeah Mattchew gives a bad vibe but he usually does that as far as I can see. Too early to say something about him imo. Will comment on him the next 48-ish hours. Risk has basicly claimed traitor with his most reason post. Show nested quote + On May 16 2012 20:13 risk.nuke wrote: So many plans, I'm going to think on this. I may or may not follow them. I may or may not tell you if I decide to follow them. Honestly though, your arguments arent nearly as persuasive as you think they are. Because the only reason to think of "town could lose before d3" as a not persuasive argument is if you are not town or if you are considering to pick Traitor. Not sure if Risk is smart enough to do that on purpose as a townie to lure mafias into picking Janitor when he really never considered to pick something else and only wanted to look like he is considering something else. Also take a look at how cocky he makes that sound. So really he either is a genius town right now who tries his best at wifom and uses fake-emotions on purpose to screw with mafia or he's mafia himself / willing to play mafia. Sandroba is usually a really smart man. A really really smart man. He destroys mafia within 2 cycles of a game or even within the first.That's the usual Sandroba So far what I saw from him pregame wasn't that smart as all because frankly he should have realized that making sure CPR is not in mafia hands has to be the #1 priority to at least have a chance as town. So those 2 are my biggest problem right now. Fancy conclusion Sandroba looks really bad imo Risk either looks incredible good or incredible bad. Not sure which one but there's pretty much nothing inbetween. Prepost Edit: Oh and yeah. I said the rolecop looks more like a mafia role in this setup but given the situation I'd love a town rolecop to figure things out right now. In short: Not sure what to make of risk, either good looking or bad looking at that point, it turned into good looking later on. The important thing though is that I said Sandroba is my main mafia read and already gave him a somewhat good chance to flip mafia. + Show Spoiler [#2] + On May 17 2012 01:15 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 17 2012 01:11 deconduo wrote: On May 17 2012 01:07 Toadesstern wrote: On May 17 2012 01:03 deconduo wrote: I just realised it would be suicide for me or risk to pick traitor. 3rd pick RNGing between CPR/Janitor stops us from doing so as well as stopping us dropping the roles down. I hadn't really planned to take it, but its good that its definitely not an option now I suppose. exactly. If #3 is something other than VT we lynch into #1 or #2, depending on wether the coinflip made him pick CPR or janitor. So again, I really don't have a problem with talking about why traitor is a possibilty for both you and Risk, because we've got shitloads of reasons for you not to pick that will get both of you instalynched if you decide not to stick with the plan :p Yeah and so the only reasons for risk not to want the plan to succeed are: -He's town that wants to take traitor safely -He's scum that wants to be able to use janitor without getting lynched -He's SK that wants a better role than janitor or he's a townie trying to look like that and therefore making every other townie not choose traitor because he "is" already traitor. I don't care about his alignment, the moment we know he's not a janitor we lynch him and that's about him. No rolecop needed, no thing. It won't get any clearer. In short: Me telling that I think Risk has a good chance to flip town and that decunduos post is missing important points. (take into consideration, still pre-day1 and I was mad at risk at that point in time) + Show Spoiler [#3] + On May 17 2012 10:30 Toadesstern wrote: That apparently makes Sandroba look way better considering it's a GM game. Unless GM isn't ranking Sandro as a vet at all if he get's to be mafia. But that sounds really far fetched so I'm just going to assume I was wrong on Sandroba right now. In short: I still think Sandroba looks incredible bad but the decunduo flip made me rethink because usually GM doesn't rng the alignment as far as I know. I checked the OP later on and found him stating that he DID rng them, so I ignored that "conclusion" as it was wrong, but you can see I still think Sandroba is looking incredible bad or else I wouldn't say he's looking better if there was no reason to doubt him in the first place. + Show Spoiler [#4] + On May 18 2012 03:47 Toadesstern wrote: Ok summary: We had a nice plan to deny mafia CPR although we have a dead mafia which is awesome, mafia probably still has the CPR and we don't know WHERE. place 2, 3 and 4 all failed to do what they were supposed to do because although they all were fine with it before alignment went out. Memo for myself: Next time suggest #1-4 CPR, #5-8 Janitor That being said I like Qatol but I'm not really convinced by the case. Do you have someone else? I'm think a Risk lynch would be nice to teach him a lesson on why you don't look scummy on purpose but I guess lynching into a null will get me as banned as he will be if he ends up being town. So blue it is for now. He's usually VERY MUCH in peoples faces and you can see that "pre-game" (before d1 started, not sure how to call it) but I don't see that right now. No "guuuuys, this guy is clearly town, this guy as well oooh and that guy over there as well. Not willing to lynch THAT" shenanigans at all. ##vote Blue Sandro did you end up getting Mason? I did not go for it but didn't feel like telling you due to my read on you prior to the mattchew thing. In short: Me laying a trap for Sandroba, aka I still think he's my best read while pressuring blue to get him posting. + Show Spoiler [#5] + On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote: On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote: Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ? Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet. In short: Me pointing out I'm not convinced one has to be mafia. + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2012 06:40 Toadesstern wrote: Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well. I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read. Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit. Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy. Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too. However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it? Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town. So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't, I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue. If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD.... I'm just going to quote here: Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well. I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now...[...] If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today and you're telling me I didn't think Sandro was a good target snarfs? lol... + Show Spoiler [#6] + On May 18 2012 07:02 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 06:59 sandroba wrote: @Toad What exactly is your reasoning for me being mafia? You keep saying I look weird and I'm scummy but you don't provide any reasoning. And because I didn't agree on the cpr thing being denied is not a good reason, but I'm not going to get into that, because I don't wanna flood the thread with obsolete discussion. So the facts we got so far are the following: Risk claims he didn't try for janitor. I know you said you wouldn't, but can you explain why, since you posted that you thought that role was worth denying? Marvelocity claims he didn't go for janitor nor cpr. Again, why is that? Sentinel claims he tryed janitor and didn't get it, thus vanilla. A role or bulletbill check could work in his case, narrowing it down to marv or risk, or finding out he is mafia. My reasoning for you being scummy is that you are usually a very smart man but so far I haven't read anything smart yet. And yes I would consider what you posted so far as not-smart-at-all. @2nd paragraph: And if mafia has a framer we're screwed big time. See what I am referring to when I said you are usually a smart man? In short: Yet another post about how I think Sandroba is the scummiest guy around + Show Spoiler [#7] + On May 18 2012 08:32 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 08:22 Toadesstern wrote: On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote: I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? just to make it clear because apparently people (hint: marv) are not getting what I am talking about when I am not explaining it explicitly and while I usually do that on purpose it's 1:30 am right now for me, so no time for games. I was referring to this one: Show nested quote + On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote: I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. You are the guy who says "give me KP and I'll give you dead scum". You are the guy who thinks CPR doc is equally good in towns hand because it's an infinite bullet vig. Clearly you don't want a noob to take it but someone like you would be really good with a CPR. Clearly you know that you tend to die early a lot if you are mafia. Remember saying something along the lines of "I'm sick of getting shot n1 as town" when we hydraed? Your train of though is just way off. 1) You want CPR to shoot n1, because apparently you die early A LOT as townie and if you don't shoot n1 what's the point of infinite vig because you usually get shot as townie n1 or n2. 2) You don't want noobs to get the CPR (I hope) because noone wants another AC happening. 3) Yet you still say it's incredible powerful due to the fact that it's infinite bullets which is just not adding up considering what I just said. 4) And you get in here telling us that we should no lynch now because you are apparently not sure at all about people. What happened to the guy "give me CPR and I'll give you a dead mafia" down the road? What happened to "cpr is awesome for town as well", what's the reasoning behind thinking CPR is awesome for town. How is that guy town. In short: Yet another explanation why I think Sandroba is the scummiest guy around. The two posts before that were the same but those were 2-liners without explanation in detail why Sandroba is mafia. + Show Spoiler [#8] + On May 18 2012 09:38 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote: My suspicions on Bottom 10: Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting. Please, feel free to request me for more opinions. vote Sandroba and you're fine :3 Reasoning has been given. In short: Telling people to vote Sandroba instead + Show Spoiler [#9] + On May 18 2012 09:46 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. + Show Spoiler + Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor? Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke? Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch? This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1. In short: Me telling people that a 1/3 hit is not better than true rnd unless you make an educated guess. I had townreads on all 3 of them (risk and marv because of play, sent because of the weird action), therefore it was true-rnd for me. Therefore it is a Plan-B lynch for me because the chance to hit mafia were really low from my point of view. Didn't realize janitor can't make the flip dissappear d1 and although it only was able to do it d2 or later. Hinthint: I didn't even read the role and didn't know how it works. Surely a mafia would know such a thing. + Show Spoiler [#10+#11] + On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote: the last red part obviously was mafia = town. 5 am in the morning here and I'm sleepy... But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far. If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie. So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies. How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia... Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy. If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that. A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK... might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else. Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra. That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation. Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. In short: Me telling people that I think we have better options around (hint: Sandroba or sheeping Qatol) + Show Spoiler [#12] + On May 18 2012 13:30 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm really at a lose of word right now and I'm tired so one last try to get you people off those 3: Consider my reads from C9++. That's what I had on d1 in C9++ #2 + Show Spoiler [picture] + Hinthint: Every town read was right. Mafia team ended up being VE + foru + Ace. Here's my sheet considering those 3: + Show Spoiler [picture] + Yes I'm that awesome now please just trust me for once. Marv and Senti both are looking really townish and I REALLY doubt they have a chance to flip mafia right now. Marv is ACTIVLY asking me ALL THE TIME what I am talking about when I am not explaining my thoughts. That looks a lot like a towny who's ACTIVLY trying to figure out what's going on in peoples head. That's one of the biggest town tells in the game. Could it be faked by a good mafia? Hell yeah, it's d1, but I have no reason to believe so yet. Senti claimed VT who tried to pick Janitor. Think about the situation. Would a mafia claim that? Both Risk and Marv claimed they are not janitor. If we somehow figure out they really aren't he is INSTA-BUSTED. If he is mafia he shoveld his own grave with this action. Not today but d2 or d3 because if we find out about one of Risk / Marv being janitor (which is highly likely) he is insta-dead. High risk of dying for mafia, about 0 gain. IF sent is mafia he went for a 1:1 trade with that statement. I am more than happy to take that trade, because we WILL figure that out soon enough without having to randomly lynch into one of those. Risk is looking somewhat townish but he might as well be yellow. That's the one read I'm not sure about but I'm not willing to lynch into a yellow read either. THE ONLY THING people are talking about are the lies. Liar doesn't mean mafia. I caught VE lieing in my first 30-man game. He claimed day-vig d1 in a game with an election and it was obvious to me that he was a liar and I was right about it. I came to the conclusion that he has to be a mafia because of that, which was completly bullshit. He lied because he wanted to win the election for mayor because he knew his own alignment and thought a 100% proven town as mayor is better han a somewhat proven player who's a vet (VE wasn't considered a vet back then). Long story short: Someone lying doesn't mean they have to be mafia all the time, especially if they have a good reason to lie about it and you ALWAYS have a good to lie about your role. ALWAYS. I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. About the same situation for marv. Fancy conclusion: I'm not even sure if one of them is mafia. Yeah it could be one of them is mafia but it's not bound to be like people said. If sent would have picked something else it would have been a whole other situation and THAT's why people started voting them because people misunderstood what sent said. Now that sent cleared those things up it should be clear that neither of them makes a good d1 lynch. In short: Telling people to just believe me once and vote who I think to be mafia instead (that's Sandroba) + Show Spoiler [#13] + On May 18 2012 13:33 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2012 13:12 PaqMan wrote: On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy. If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that. A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK... might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else. Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra. That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation. Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1. On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote: We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia... 1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here. You're getting an award for this. 1/4 is true random lynch, aka a lynch into someone without a second of a though done by a random generator. Yes 1/3 TRUELY are aweome odds... And no I am telling you to only lynch people when you are AT LEAST (!!!!!) 50% certain they'll flip mafia. Everything else is a mislynch. In short: Me teling people my lynch is AT LEAST 50% while the other lynch is a 1/3. + Show Spoiler [#14] + On May 18 2012 14:09 Toadesstern wrote: Next question for everyone: If you consider them all about equally scummy (1/3) What are you going to do if the flip ends up being without alignment / role due to the janitor? Go on lynching the other 2 as well? There's just a shitload of reasons not to lynch into those 3 until we're at least somewhat certain on who out of those 3 (if at all) is mafia. Again me not knowing how that role works, aka I haven't even read it lol. + Show Spoiler [#15] + On May 19 2012 02:01 Toadesstern wrote: Show nested quote + On May 19 2012 01:20 zelblade wrote: So Toad if that is what you think why is your vote on sentinel? Theres several hours left, use it to convince people (well or try to) to actually vote for who you think is scum? Also Palmar please dont use the pardoner power especially today. Whilst it possible the situation gets handled at night I dont want the flips to get covered assuming that janitor is in the game, and if all 3 are left alive the same shit will happen tomorrow. I tried to do that yesterday and Sandro ended up putting me on his ignore list agreeing with me and voting for senti as well while saying "we probably should no-lynch thought" hinthint: it's the same sandro that says stuff like Show nested quote + [23.04.2012 19:19:06] Sandro Maculan: hmm yeah it might be [23.04.2012 19:19:14] Sandro Maculan: it's non optimal though [23.04.2012 19:19:27] Sandro Maculan: i really like to optimize stuff [23.04.2012 19:19:31] Sandro Maculan: specially day' [23.04.2012 19:19:33] Sandro Maculan: 1 But yeah, whatever, lynching a modconfirmed townie obviously is optimal play d1 and if that's not possible one should nolynch instead. Very much optimal play in my book as well. In short: Me trying a last time to get people to vote Sandroba instead. Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?" | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 26 2012 00:11 GMT
#1460
On May 26 2012 08:47 Snarfs wrote: Woah, where's all this sandroba stuff coming from Toad. Allow me to patronize you as you're clearly patronizing me: + Show Spoiler [My points on Toad] + On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote: I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote + I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote + People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred". Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town. IN SHORT: Me saying Toad is traitor or scum because one would have to try really hard not to think in order to actually believe that all 3 of risk.nuke, marv and Sentinel could have been town. Show nested quote + On May 26 2012 06:44 Toadesstern wrote: Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?" Thanks for the attempt at misrepresenting me, yet again. I'm not sure if it's because you lack a certain mastery of the english language, you're just being a jerk, or you are actually scum, but at least have the courtesy to address what I actually said. Of course I read your novel of a filter before posting. Do you think I want to sound like an idiot? Are you kidding me? Here's what you posted: Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all You're telling me what I did is scummy because I did it only thinking those 3 are town. Yes I did think those 3 are townish early on but that's not the reason I wanted someone else lynched. I did it because I thought Sandro has a 50-80% chance to flip mafia at d1. I still think so because he did multiple thinks he considers BAD for town, things he would NEVER do himself as a townie according to our skype conversation. Either he lied to me in skype or he's mafia. Secondly I said the beginnging of d1 that I thought all three are town. Once I realized sent was above 3 votes I realized that this is not what I thought it would be and one of them had to be mafia. Still I had a townread on all 3 of them which means one of those reads had to be wrong, which is the reason I went with the weakest townread when I failed to get you voting Sandroba instead. So no, again wrong: In the end I no longer thought all 3 are townies. That was only my first impression when they both "casually" had about 2 votes that meant nothing. So basicly, as already pointed out your 2 basic points of your case are made up and just not true at all. Anyways that's it for me. I have no idea why people think I'm mafia at all and snarfs makes some things up I don't even begin to understand. The only reasonable thing that was said about me is that I was wrong about a townread on d1. Yeah I agree, that hasn't happened FOR AGES when I was town but everyone can be wrong sometimes. Last time I was wrong like that was AC...., every other game was at least 50% mafia caught d1 as town, so I get why people don't trust me I guess. Last 2 mafias (mafia + traitor) are Sandroba + one of zelblade or Zephird. I think looking into people who voted barundar early on isn't actually bad considering anyone taking a second of a thought should have realized that lynching hiro first is the way to go with barundar counterclaiming although it wasn't right. I pointed that out first, Snarfs pointed it out again, Marv agreed and Qatol pointed it out again and agreed to everything that was said about hiro being the better lynch option at that point in time. So there was no reason to actually think barundar is the better lynch option from a townie perspective, at all. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 26 2012 12:30 GMT
#1462
On May 26 2012 21:13 Zephirdd wrote: Toad, there is a reason when you know politician cant be below you on the draft and hiro was below me while barundar is above. so what? We're looking for 1 mafia and 1 traitor after Barundar flipps and once he flipps we know wether or not your claim is right. If he flips politician you're good :p If he's not we've got 2 mafias left that may or may not have something to with politicians AT ALL. So far I don't know if I can trust your claim therefore leaving it as an option, although it might seem unlikely but after Barundars action and hiros flip I'm not taking anything for granted anymore. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 26 2012 15:28 GMT
#1466
On May 26 2012 22:57 sandroba wrote: Let me tell you why you are scum and your trap is retarded. Toad uses trap to see if sandroba is mafia based on mason role -> it fails, sandroba really went for mason -> toad concludes sandroba is still mafia anyway -> ??? -> more nonsense and ignoring everything else. never said it was a good trap :p If you would have told me you were a mason you would have been confirmed mafia yeah. Telling me you ended up being VT is a nullread and doesn't change it because you could be smart enough to figure out the "trap" (and again, it wasn't really that good after announce I'd pick mason myself lol) or you just told the truth. I can't tell the difference, how am I supposed to? And I already adressed everything in your spoiler when answering Snarfs, so I don't really feel like copy & pasting stuff | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 26 2012 19:30 GMT
#1468
So basicly everything he said about me is completly wrong and he labels me as a 100% mafia while everything he "pointed out" about me perfectly fits his own play this game. This guy is ridiculous and no way is he going to flip town. I'd say he picked traitor to be in a good position either way once he realized he's dead last in the draft: You either confirm there's a traitor for town while being town (which would be awesome) or you get to be a traitor in a game where 1/3 of all people are anti-town. Just take into consideration we're dealing with Sandroba here. That guy is probably top3 or top5 of the best town players ON TL. Does this Sandroba you see in this game feel like a "holy shit that's BY FAR the best townie in the game and he already figured out 2 or 3 mafias by the end of d1"? Let's give him a bad day excuse just for the lulz: Does this guy feel like top 3 townies in this game? Because that's what Sandroba usually does when getting town. He destroys mafia within 1 or 2 cycles tops, which is the reason mafia always shoots him n1. I'm not taking the "mafia shoot him n1" as an argument at all because if I'm really wrong and those something like 30% really happen and he's town he's entirely useless this game for whatever reason, but that's not town Sandroba. Town Sandroba is lazy as shit but still figures out mafia in a heartbeat without posting and giving a case on d1, n1 or d2 that is DEAD END correct on at least 2 mafias. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 11:54 GMT
#1485
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 12:19 GMT
#1486
Mattchew: Makes 0 sense as mafia. The only possible scenario we ever considered was him being dayvig and one of the mafias being copy-cat. Seems like that did not happen and he shot a mafia so no lynching that risk.nuke: Town as well. He shot mafia as well and apparently got roleblocked by the traitor. marvellosity: Town. Mafia buddy thing and all, no way that guy is mafia. Snarfs: Town for obvious reasons Palmar: Hard to tell but I'd say town. He once told me he considers people lying about RL-stuff (something along the lines "sry no time for the next 2 days. I've got some finals!") cheaters, or at least considers lying like that cheating and would never do something like that. So basicly I buy his frustration story and don't think he'd replace out as mafia and just forfeit. Furthermore I don't think he'd say he wants to replace out as mafia to look townish because as mentioned he considers something like that cheating. sandroba: Mafia lol Misder: He roleblocked me yesterday and we can assume the traitor RB'ed risk and not misder, making him look somewhat decent. Also the fact that he roleblocked me probably makes him look good because he's trying to hit the right targets instead of holding it. Obviously he's wrong and I have no idea what the point of RB'ing a vanilla is but whatever. So everyone but Zelblade and Sandroba is town to me. I'd say it's Sandroba >>>>>>>>>> Zelblade >>> One of my townreads is wrong. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 12:27 GMT
#1489
On May 28 2012 21:23 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2012 21:22 marvellosity wrote: On May 28 2012 20:54 Toadesstern wrote: I know who got roleblocked :3 Care to enlighten us then? Oh I misread your post maybe - you said 'he roleblocked me yesterday' - you meant he roleblocked you during the night we just had? yeah the night qatol and zephirdd died I got roleblocked. If I knew about the last night (although I assume it was Barundar being roleblocked like misder announced) I would have told you guys last cycle lol. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 12:30 GMT
#1491
Sandro >> Zelblade >>>>>>>>>>>> my town reads are wrong The Joat-VT thing seems really convenient considering we have a flipped Joat. Not sure what to make of it yet and I don't think we're going to know if that's just bad luck or a fake. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 12:31 GMT
#1492
On May 28 2012 21:30 Toadesstern wrote: Actually I'd put Zelblade a lot more in Sandros direction, something like Sandro >> Zelblade >>>>>>>>>>>> my town reads are wrong The Joat-VT thing seems really convenient considering we have a flipped Joat. Not sure what to make of it yet and I don't think we're going to know if that's just bad luck or a fake. Stupid band-aid. Makes typing a living hell. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 17:32 GMT
#1496
On May 28 2012 23:39 marvellosity wrote: Toad, have you lied to us this game? maybe. I tend to lie as a townie from time to time but I don't recall anything. Anyways since this is my last day in this game a few hints: Don't listen to sandroba and don't listen to Zelblade at any point for obvious reasons after I flipped. Don't listen to snarfs because he's unable to make cases, don't listen to misder, don't listen to palmar if he gets back in the game. Do whatever Risk, mattchew or maybe marv (if the other two are dead) are saying tomorrow but highly priority on risk and mattchew. Those 2 are the only ones who I think are truely able to find a mafia themselves and the rest has demostrated that they're just not able to this game and I thought so before the game has started a well. That's not meant insulting or me being mad it's just that half the people in here either look for the wrong things that they deem a scumtull when it's really not or are not objective at all. That being said, lynch into Sandroba / Zelblade tomorrow unless Risk or Mattchew have a fucking good reason to say otherwise and I hope Zelblade flips mafia because if it's Sandroba I'll be fucking mad at you all for lynching me. gg | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 20:37 GMT
#1499
On May 29 2012 05:30 Mattchew wrote: Show nested quote + On May 29 2012 02:32 Toadesstern wrote: On May 28 2012 23:39 marvellosity wrote: Toad, have you lied to us this game? maybe. I tend to lie as a townie from time to time but I don't recall anything. Anyways since this is my last day in this game a few hints: Don't listen to sandroba and don't listen to Zelblade at any point for obvious reasons after I flipped. Don't listen to snarfs because he's unable to make cases, don't listen to misder, don't listen to palmar if he gets back in the game. Do whatever Risk, mattchew or maybe marv (if the other two are dead) are saying tomorrow but highly priority on risk and mattchew. Those 2 are the only ones who I think are truely able to find a mafia themselves and the rest has demostrated that they're just not able to this game and I thought so before the game has started a well. That's not meant insulting or me being mad it's just that half the people in here either look for the wrong things that they deem a scumtull when it's really not or are not objective at all. That being said, lynch into Sandroba / Zelblade tomorrow unless Risk or Mattchew have a fucking good reason to say otherwise and I hope Zelblade flips mafia because if it's Sandroba I'll be fucking mad at you all for lynching me. gg why is this your last day? dude look at dem votes. If I start blabbering how I am not mafia we probably lose a day or still end up lynching me while generating the biggest shitstorm TL has ever seen. Snarfs case is the worst I have ever seen and is completly made up as I have already pointed out but he keeps tunneling me for things I never did while Sandroba actually did the things he's accusing me for lol. Not going to put effort into this if people are not willing to even think about it and I don't have a chance to change people's mind because clearly snarfs hasn't even read my posts nor my filter so far. If you guys figure out wether it's Zelblade or Sandro and vote him awesome. But I'm not going to talk to a wall and pretend that I can still change this because clearly I can't due to peoples lack to actually read the thread. I can't force people to do that. I tried that in my frist newbie game ever and it did not work, neither would it work here. I have given all the reasoning why there is no case on me while the legendary Sandroba keeps on doing everything he told me he'd never do as a townie in skype and keeps on doing nothing to contribute at all while pusing for a NL without having other alternative. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 28 2012 21:08 GMT
#1501
On May 29 2012 05:51 marvellosity wrote: I admit sandroba looks bad. But he was voting for Sentinel on quite a weird reason at the time. Snarfs and I can't quite get over why he'd bus like that when the votes were so close. Sandroba is the the biggest busser on all of TL.net ... That's how he plays mafia. The moment he thinks someone plays weird enough to come to the conclusion his townie-self would figure him out he busses that guy no matter what. You can take that for granted once I flip :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 29 2012 00:23 GMT
#1506
On May 29 2012 09:05 Snarfs wrote: That being said, this: Show nested quote + On May 29 2012 06:08 Toadesstern wrote: On May 29 2012 05:51 marvellosity wrote: I admit sandroba looks bad. But he was voting for Sentinel on quite a weird reason at the time. Snarfs and I can't quite get over why he'd bus like that when the votes were so close. Sandroba is the the biggest busser on all of TL.net ... That's how he plays mafia. The moment he thinks someone plays weird enough to come to the conclusion his townie-self would figure him out he busses that guy no matter what. You can take that for granted once I flip :p is probably the most useful thing you've said so far. Why can't all your posts be this simple and informative? they are, but they are so heavily compressed with information that people don't understand them as I am typing them and usually end up forgetting something inbetween so the explanation often times lacks a critical detail which I obviously only figure out hours later. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 29 2012 14:16 GMT
#1512
I still think he's town but here's the reason why I don't want people to listen him if he decides to start playing: It is very much possible that his claim is completle garbage and is something entirely different. The thing is we have a DT check on him telling us he's green but he could be something like a godfather so I'd rather trust reads than a check on him. Both tell me he's town but nothing like a confirmed townie, which people tend to think after hearing someone DT'ed the guy. Still think he's town and it's either Sandro or Zelblade but if both flip town (I'll eat a hat if that happens) he might be an option. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
May 30 2012 00:46 GMT
#1524
So I guess I hope Sandroba flips town and it's Zel who flips mafia lol | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 12:18 GMT
#1655
Haven't really followed since I died but I figured this is a won game because it's either Sandroba or Zelblade | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 12:25 GMT
#1657
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 12:26 GMT
#1658
| ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 12:30 GMT
#1660
That just sucks, it's LI all over again... | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 12:37 GMT
#1663
On June 07 2012 21:31 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On June 07 2012 21:30 Toadesstern wrote: that's kind of depressing. Isn't it a modkill as well because Misder did not vote? That just sucks, it's LI all over again... no, you still haven't read the thread dear you can't modkill for someone for not voting when they had an extra 24 hours to, in fact, vote LOL | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 19:41 GMT
#1696
On June 08 2012 04:06 Mattchew wrote: Just outta curiosity is 2 minutes into day 1 the fastest scum death ever? I was once lynched within 14 seconds in a PYP game in irc because of a "scumslip". I obviously flipped town. I have decided I will never, ever play PYP games again though. I have never been lynched before. Not as mafia and not as town and the instant I sign up for both PYP games I get lynched in both. This kind of game seems to be cursed :p | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
June 07 2012 20:07 GMT
#1702
If you had an issue with the plan like saying vig is more dangerous than what we put in #2 spot (I would have btw agreed with it, just everyone else kept saying pardoner is really scary for whatever reason) you should have just told us before the deadline imo. That just freaked me out, not because I disagreed with the action itself but with the fact that you did not tell us about it earlier. That's basicly everything that got me mad. And sorry for being so mad | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 Other Games Organizations Other Games StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War
StarCraft 2 • HeavenSC 73 StarCraft: Brood War• Hupsaiya 49 • gosughost_ 19 • practicex 8 • Kozan • LaughNgamez Trovo • aXEnki • Poblha • intothetv • Gussbus • Migwel • Laughngamez YouTube • IndyKCrew Dota 2 League of Legends Other Games |
Sparkling Tuna Cup
ESL Pro Tour
World Team League
ESL Pro Tour
BSL
Gypsy vs Bonyth
Mihu vs XiaoShuai
ESL Open Cup
ESL Open Cup
ESL Open Cup
ESL Pro Tour
ESL Pro Tour
[ Show More ] ESL Pro Tour
ESL Pro Tour
Online Event
ESL Pro Tour
Hatchery Cup
BSL
ESL Pro Tour
|
|