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On August 18 2012 09:47 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 08:59 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 08:44 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 08:34 thrawn2112 wrote: No I do not think that you think that town thrawn should investigate to determine if thrawn is town or scum lol. But you seem to think that I and harry are most deserving of suspicion, and my post was an attempt to show why I, as town thrawn, am investigating archrun. Yep, which is why the post was not really directed at you. Because I think you may be scum. Why are you constantly addressing yourself as town thrawn? You seem pretty desperate to establish your townieness. Or perhaps as Scum Thrawn you need to constantly think about what your towny alter ego would be doing and that is coming out in your posting. Sounds somewhat similar to zork from XXII. You always describe my motivations as how they make sense to scum thrawn, I am trying to get you to see how they are more reasonable coming from town thrawn. There have been quite a lot of things said about me and it will take a good amount of time to write up a post. Expect one in the next couple hours.
The Issue is that the scum motivation behind your play is clear as day to me. When Yourself and Your Harry try to paint yourselves as town it is based on large assumptions, misinterpreting posts in order to further your agenda, WIFOM etc.
Yourself and Your Harry clearly tried to lead another Mislynch on Archrun. and were trying to use a ridiculous interpretation of one post of his to paint yourselves as confirmed town. Something which you have been trying to do for one another since day one.
Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town.
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On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Lets look at the events that have happened during D1/N1
Shady was lynched and flipped town Archrun was killed and flipped town Mkfuba was killed and flipped town
Goodkarma and Darthpunk both claim to have very strong reads on me as scum. Their reasoning is that I was pushing for shady and archun to be lynched, and both of them flipped town.
Mkfuba wrote a very long post on why he had a town read on me:
Which is completely irrelevant.
On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum?
No, I did not see a scum agenda behind mkfuba's post but I did see one behind yours. He questioned Your Harry, you put a FoS on YH and then IN YOUR VERY NEXT POS found him town (a read you have defended to the death ever since) with no explanation or arguement. Tried to confirm him as town against the prevailing consensus at the time. You both have since spent a large amount of effort trying to confrim one another as town, when no person in their right mind could have a strong enough town read on either of you to do that. There are a whole hosts of reasons I find you scummier, despite the way in which you are trying to divert/misrepresent my case on you.
On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were.
So aside from the WIFOM, your entire defense is that you are claiming VIG? Do you have any evidence or are just you scum desperate to get yourself out of a whole?
On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town?
WIFOM, ally of scum. You cannot argue the case against you, so now you are resorting to WIFOM. Honestly how stupid do you think I am?
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On August 18 2012 10:28 YourHarry wrote:EDBWOP: I just read your post. I believe you. I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway.
Of course YOUwould be the one to see this weak as shit breadcrumb. If it is even a breadcrumb. Of course YOU would Immediately accept him to be vig without any discussion whatsoever.
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On August 18 2012 10:49 thrawn2112 wrote: Darthpunk:
Right before I claimed vig I read the "General Guide to Mafia." This is what I read:
"Claiming that you shot player X as a vig after the fact is usually a good claim if you have no shots left, especially if you hit a red, as you bring new information to the table that the mafia cannot punish."
The guide takes a pretty strong stance against role claiming, with the exception of Vigilante.
You say that my argument concerning mkfuba is wifom. However I think it provides a very strong reason why I wouldn't kill mkfuba as scum thrawn. He was the MOST convinced that I was town, and wrote a very long argument as to why he believed so. He had the strongest town read on me, and was killed. I cannot conceive of any possible mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town.
That argument is WIFOM and is therefore useless regardless of what you want us to believe.
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On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: For the record, and I am repeating myself here, my strong town read on thrawn was based on my strong scum read on Archrun.
That is bullshit. You yourself stated that your town read on him was CONFIRMED by that post not based on that post.
On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance)
A Thrawn Lynch has been met with an Incredible amount of resistance so far. Shady's counter wagon and mislynch were almost a direct response to it. You yourself have spent vast amounts of time and effort trying to establish Thrawn as town and are continuing to soft-defend him and stop him from being lynched at the same time as you cast VERY MILD suspicion on him.
On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn.
So now it is an initial town read? LMAO Even though you said before archuns post that you had a town feel from thrawn and defended his laughable town read of you? Seems like you are trying to play down the connection between you both and are preparing to Bus him.
On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill.
This is obvious but I 100% agree. and yet you believed thrawns claim almost Immediately despite it containing no evidence and there being no discussion. If thrawn was the Vig, He 100 percent should have crumbed his hit in the night post.
On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums.
Thanks for gracing us with more WIFOM Your Harry. even though you point it out doesn't mean it stops being useless. You seem to be desperate to distance yourself from Thrawn's red flip. I find it very plausible that after Shady made a case against thrawn you and your scum buddies decided to form a counter wagon onto shady.
I find Thrawn, Yourself and Ochrow all incredibly suspicious. Who do you find suspicious?
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On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum.
You are lurking pretty hard buddy. I would also like to ask Ochrow, solarsail Z-Boson and Stutters to increase their contributions.
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EBWOP
On August 18 2012 15:13 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: For the record, and I am repeating myself here, my strong town read on thrawn was based on my strong scum read on Archrun. That is bullshit. You yourself stated that your town read on him was CONFIRMED by that post not based on that post.
On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote: My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?
I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.
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On August 18 2012 14:13 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I agree 100% that if a Vig exists but didn't shoot Arch, they should NOT counter-claim. I disagree that waiting is fruitless and lynching thrawn is a good play currently. No matter how we spin it, Thrawn is now tied to Archrun's death. If Thrawn is town, he has no incentive to lie and claim a kill he didn't commit (likewise about being a 1shot vig [which really isn't that uncommon for balance purposes in minis, from what I've read >1shot Vigs are a rarity]). Now if we don't lynch Thrawn today his fate is directly tied to future NKs. If he's scum and another Vig took a shot last night it would be absolutely terrible play for him to claim the kill he had no knowledge of. A counter-claim if we have a vig essentially kills him for no value at all to the scum team. If 2 people die Night2 a Thrawn lynch is essentially a given Day 3 and we'll see then. If only one person dies it either means he's telling the truth or either the scumteam or SK decided to hold their shot to throw us off (good for us in that we save a night kill). Essentially it comes down to how certain we are that Thrawn is scum. If he flips red we're in a great position and have a lot of info to go off of. If he flips blue we've wasted Day 2 on a lynch that we could have gathered info by letting him live while trying to catch other scum. Currently I'd rather focus on other targets and see what we can do as opposed to gambling on this. I'm about to reread the thread and get some thoughts up on my reads, I just wanted to weigh in on this.
I am fine with not lynching thrawn today and lynching Your Harry instead.
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These lurkers are really hurting us by the way.
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On August 18 2012 15:32 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:19 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. You are lurking pretty hard buddy. I would also like to ask Ochrow, solarsail Z-Boson and Stutters to increase their contributions. I agree i'm lurking, but I feel that I have at least contributed well for my sparse filter. I made my case on thrawn, and cast my vote. When I see something worth discussing I mention it. I may not be living in the thread as hard as you, harry or thrawn, but at least I've contributed. What do you suggest I do to be less "lurky"? Make a shit case on someone in a misguided attempt to look active? Last game it got me lynched and cost town a vigi shot. I'll go over the thread again and see if anything catches my eye, but I don't really see a case I can make that hasn't already been made ATM. At the very least i'll prod some people in my next couple posts.
Why so defensive? I understand that you got lynched for being over eager in XXII but your posting is markedly different than what I experienced there (although you were only alive for 24 hours so not much of a meta to read ) my post was not a personal attack but rather a call to all lurkers to contribute something.
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On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip.
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On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip.
What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town.
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On August 18 2012 16:00 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:59 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town. Isn't that the same way you caught Zork in XXII?
I was Godfather in that game. but yes it was similar.
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On August 18 2012 16:03 thrawn2112 wrote: Darthpunk, you have been twisting everything I've said to you into more reasons why I'm scum, and for that I'm going to be looking closely at your filter. It seems like you're less interested in seeing what I have to say and more interested in convincing town I'm scum regardless of my arguments. Goodkarma on the other hand even asked me to defend myself. I can sense sincerity in his motivations but you just seem focused on interpreting everything I say as evidence against me.
@goodkarma
dont worry it's coming
LOL OMGUS vote number 2 incoming.
I am listening to your arguments but as GoodKarma stated they don't really exist aside from your Vig claim and a truckload of WIFOM. You can be sure that if you come up with something good enough, I will view it with an open mind and adjust my position accordingly.
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On August 18 2012 18:09 thrawn2112 wrote:Regarding WIFOM: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOMI read the definition, and have come to the conclusion that people keep using that word and I do not think it means what they think it means.
We all know what it means.
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On August 19 2012 10:19 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 19 2012 07:45 goodkarma wrote: He claims that the post timing for both him and Ochrow I pointed out is merely coincidence. While I still find that a little hard to believe, I'm looking at his actions too. Here is the page where it happened. Notice that Ochrow and I both made posts on August 15, 5:27 KST. In these posts, we both come to the conclusion that yourharry and solar are town and we use similar reasons causing people to later on (nobody pointed it out when it happened) to think Ochrow and I are sharing qts. Solar and yourharry were definitely in the spotlight at that time, of course they would be the ones who anyone posting would choose to talk about. Do you think that it is more likely that scum thrawn/ochio decided to make posts at the exact same time, about the exact same people, and use the exact same arguments? I say it is more reasonable to think it's a coincidence caused by yourharry and solar being in the town's spotlight. I am not making a wifom argument, because my argument is that you should think that the coincidence option is more likely to be true. Ochrow puts a FOS on Archrun in that post. I did not. My post contained nothing about Archrun. The post I made about Archrun did not happen until 7:11 KST, just short of two hours later. I quoted Ochrow's 5:27 post to show my agreement that Archrun should be a target, and I gave my reasons for doing so. My reasons happened to look like a rewording of what Ochrow said, because both of the things that we said were true and they were the best reasons anyone would have given for why Archrun should be suspected. The fact that I didn't mention Archrun until a post that happened after the 5:27 posts everyone is looking at, and the fact that I quoted Ochrow's earlier post to show that I agreed with him that Archrun should be pressured makes the coincidence theory even more believable. I did not know what Ochrow was writing at 5:27. After I posted my 5:27 post I read his 5:27 post and then quoted it in my next post to show my agreement with his FOS on Archrun. Despite agreeing with Ochrow about Archrun, my FOS on Archrun came up independently from Ochrow's read. I had looked at all the lurkers, read all their early game filters, and then I choose the one whose posts contained the least substance. This is all I can possibly say concerning the ochrow-thrawn qt theory. I am not making a wifom argument, as I don't think that from somebody else's perspective that the coincidence explanation and the qt explanation are equally likely. I am very hesitant to post this, but I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway just in case it will convince some of you. I think there are some people who have already closed their minds to the possibility that I'm town so I do not care if they don't accept this post. I'm not going to discuss this issue again because I don't have anything else to say about it and I don't want to waste time. If I am lynched, when I flip blue all you town players need to go back and look at the filters of whoever made arguments against me, and you should also look through my filter at the scum reads I'm currently working on. Currently I have a case against Yourharry and I've pointed out some odd statements in one of Ochrow's posts. I'm waiting on responses to my cases both from them and from everyone else.
It is probable that both you and Ochrow posting at the exact same time is a coincidence, that being said, I think the suspicions of a shared QT rely more on the fact that, without influence from either of each other; You both post almost the exact same thing on the exact same people, you both find Your Harry town against the prevailing sentiment with incredibly weak reasoning which makes it look as if painting Your Harry as town is part of an agenda you both shared. You further push your Town Harry agenda throughout your discussions with me until you both backflip from your town reads at around the same time and start bussing eachother. I find your Vig claim to be weak because it was made 'after the fact' with no breadcrumb before the day post of your hit it is so weak that the lack of a counter claim does not exonerate you. Vig should be the easiest role to claim and yet yours is incredibly lacking.
What makes me even more suspicious of you is this
On August 18 2012 15:59 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town.
Blatant scumslips that you have brushed aside and are almost the nail in your coffin. I am 90% sure you are scum
With all that being said you have continued to argue against your lynch and have contributed vastly more than many of the players here. Whilst I hardly agree with the majority of your arguments you are generating discussion and providing content and that does give you some credit in my opinion. Ochrow on the other hand whom is just as suspicious as yourself has not contributed anything, has not defended himself etc. and this post:
On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote: At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight.
Is incredibly suspicious combined with the Mkfuba NK. The Mkfuba Nightkill was very confusing in that it had no clear motive and was, I think, an attempt to confuse us. Further, the lack of a counter claim has me a bit nervous. Whilst I can completely understand if the real vig chose not to claim at this point in time. It is the one thing that makes me reconsider auto lynching you.
As it stands I still have Strong scum reads on Your Harry, Thrawn and Ochrow and am willing to support any of these lynches.
However taking into account his contribution (which I may strongly disagree with, but contribution nonetheless) to the thread and lack of a counter to his Vig claim, whilst I still think he is scum he is no longer my primary priority.
## Unvote
I have yet to decide who out of my three reads I prefer right now and may vote for thrawn after all. But I have a very strong scum read on Your Harry so I will be focusing on him.
## Vote:Your Harry
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On August 19 2012 10:39 Stutters695 wrote: I'm going to go through filters and draw up some better cases after I run to the store, but just some food for thought. I'd wager that if Thrawn is actually Vig, YH is scum 100%.
And I would wager that if Thrawn was not the Vig Your Harry is scum. Either way he is scum and must be lynched.
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I am going to begin work on a case against Your Harry it may take some time but should put into writing my thoughts.
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There are many reasons that I believe Your Harry to be scum you can re-read the cases I have brought against him in my filter.
Reads that do not make sense unless aware of alignments.
I originally found him Suspicious due to his flip flopping around Solarsail. He explained that this was due to a mason read on GK and Solar sail which I believed to be an incredibly odd connection to make, and the only way in my mind that he would make that connection first is if he was scum. Your Harry's assumption was indeed NATURAL for one who knew both good karma's and Solar's alignments but confusing to those who did not. When I pointed this out he attempted to explain the more natural assumptions that someone in the dark would take with WIFOM.
He admitted that his stated reasoning behind his mason read was WIFOM and barely believed it himself.
On August 16 2012 13:47 YourHarry wrote: actually, upon re-evaluation, I can accept the possibility that GK was indeed not sure about Solar's alignment but was indeed worried that we may tunnel on a player that he somehow thought was a town. Still, the alternative is also possible. It could have been a scum slip that GK is now fabricating the explanations for. Either way, since this is WIFOM, I want to partially retract my case against GK.
Your Harry made a blue read that was unnatural to someone with no knowledge of alignments to make. This has largely been forgotten but was A major point that I kept my FoS on your harry at that time.
You may think that making such odd reads was an isolated incident. Except that he did it again.
On August 18 2012 10:28 YourHarry wrote:EDBWOP: I just read your post. I believe you. I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up.
I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated.
Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway.
Once again he makes a blue read swiftly and without discussion. A read that would be easy to make if you were aware of others alignments, but certainly not if you were in the dark. I originally thought that this post was an attempt for Your Harry to validate Thrawn's Claim. This remains entirely possible, but even if Thrawn is telling the truth these posts are still damning. He has made two blue reads that are only plausible if you view them with the knowledge of their alignments.
Never mentioning Ochrow as a lurker despite FoS on all lurkers
Your Harry has NOT ONCE called out Ochrow for lurking, Despite laying a FoS on every other lurker in the game and wanting to potentially policy lynch one of them.
On August 16 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking.
On August 17 2012 05:20 YourHarry wrote: I think the best lurker lynch candidate is Golbat. Stutters and Jyhut don't have many posts, but at
On August 17 2012 05:38 YourHarry wrote: Thrawn, it is called policy lynch for a reason. I don't particularly find Golbat scummy, but if someone doesn't post he should be lynched. That's policy. This will encourage more participation in subsequent days.
In this post he says it doesn't really matter which lurker is lynched, and yet he has not even mentioned Ochrow at all in his lurker group.
On August 17 2012 05:30 YourHarry wrote: @Thrawn While there probably is such thing as lynching the best lurker, they are basically all lurkers. I did read your explanation on your choosing Arch, but it doesn't seem substantial to me. Having little content in your post is a scum-tell but when someone is lurking, I think it makes a little difference. All of them have minimal contents in their post, so I disagree with your analysis of Arch being the best lurker.
I think most important thing is how promising is it that these lurkers will become active posters. I see Arch beginning to contribute, now that there are more posts to go on. So I think Arch could be more active from now on, which will give us posts to base our reads on.
If it doesn't matter which lurker is lynched why is Ochrow absent from all the list of lurkers that you originally FoS and why does he not mention him at all when he was clearly lurking.
Having to specify he is not scum because it is clear tthat his arguments look scummy.
On August 17 2012 09:21 YourHarry wrote: Darth, maybe I didn't explain myself clear enough. This is how I interpret Archrun's motivation. By saying that exactly one of Shady or Thrawn is scum, he is basically proposing to lynch the other one if one flips town. So if Shady flips town, he is asking us to lynch Thrawn and vice versa.
This way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated.
In this post he is either trying to establish his scum partner as town, which he has done all game. Or, If thrawn is actually green he is using knowledge of alignment to make his cases. He even realizes this is incredibly scummy and acknowledges this. This is a classic slip. Making excuses for your posts before anyone has even accused you for them.
On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote:
And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens.
Again guilt of his actions scumminess before anyone has even accused him. Classic Scum behaviour. It is even written about in the guides. This post is also damning as it seems he was desperate to avoid a thrawn lynch at all costs. And yet, he incredibly also states that thrawn was one of his scum reads at the same time as he was saying he was all but confirmed town. and that I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens.
The last thing I want to point out that makes me believe he is scum is this.
As I mentioned before he instantly believes thrawns vig claim with shaky reasoning and little discussion. Then he defends and defends and defends thrawn as if his own success depended on it
Defends Thrawn from day one onwards. Then immediately after that post where it seems as if he just wants to delay the inevitable. We get
On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote:For the record, and I am repeating myself here, my strong town read on thrawn was based on my strong scum read on Archrun. It turns out that I was wrong, but in my recent game, the scum did exactly the same thing as Archrun - attempting to benefit from a mislynch of one townie to ensure a mislynch on the second townie. So I felt confident that Archrun was trying to do the same thing. Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance), I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn. And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill. At this point, it seems like a safe claim from scum's point of view - knowing that SK would never claim at this point. And as far as the quick wagon on Thrawn, it is possible that all of the players voting for Thrawn are indeed all townies and they are correct about Thrawn being scum. And I guess it is also possible that one or more scums are bussing their scum partner in Thrawn. In addition, I also find Thrawn's attempt to discourage the detective from investigating him (despite him not having the misfortune of being the miller) suspicious. I tend to think that townies want to feel the peace of mind in being confirmed by the detective. And, I was not trying to keep Thrawn alive as long as possible, per se. I just thought that there could have been a strategy that we can employ that would allow us to find out Thrawn's alignment without having to compromise town's interest. But as goodkarma suggested, since townies can get a medic save OR scums may intentionally forgo one night kill (although extended giving up of the scum kill power or SK not sending in the kill could be eliminated from the possibility, for reasons I described earlier). As such, I am withdrawing my proposal to try to wait and see Thrawn's alignment. I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums. Also, if you do get a chance, I advise everyone to read the XXI game ( Mafia XXI Link and Scum Dr. Wiggle's Filter). I believe you will have a much easier time understanding where I was coming from, in terms of my strong suspicion of Archrun and thus my earlier town read on Thrawn. For reasons explained above: ##Vote Thrawn
His Very. Next. Post. Almost as if it was decided in his QT that he was going to bus Thrawn. And this is exactly what he does. HARD. There is no natural progression from staunch defender to rabid accuser.
Read his filter. Read the interplay between Thrawn and Your Harry. They clearly defend each other for a lengthy period of time and then almost like someone has flicked a switch or collectively made a decision they begin to bus one another.
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On August 19 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: And you say that if Thrawn is vig, I am 100% scum. I don't think Thrawan is vig, but let's suppose that he is vigilante. What does scum Harry have to gain by trying to confirm Thrawn's alignment based on tonight's actions. Also, looking back on Day 1, why would scum Harry make himself so suspicious by preferring to lynch Archrun or even Shady, when scum Harry knew that Thrawn lynch would be just fine? To me, mislynch in Archrun, Shady, or Thrawn would have been just fine. On the other hand, it was because I had a strong scum read on Archrun, that I wanted to defend Thrawn.
This is WIFOM. But i will explain to you what I believe the answer to be.
You wanted to stop Thrawn flipping red at all costs as you to were and are still clearly linked. You jumped on the shady mislynch when it was a tie. Causing a thrawn lynch to require 2 townies to switch instead of just one. After realizing you will look really bad when shady flips green you jump on to Archrun in order to distance yourself from the Shady mislynch. When the votes tie once again you jump back on to shady in order to retain your majority. During this time you have laid the groundwork for a second mislynch of Archrun on day 2. A mislynch which you began pushing Immediately after the night post which SCREAMED scum to me.
On August 17 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote:OK. It's OK. This should provide further evidence that Archrun is scum. The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read. And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town.
Maybe you convinced the real Vig enough to cause him to use his shot. Maybe the real vig was smart enough to realize that Archruns flip would provide a great deal of information without a wasted lynch. Either way the follow up mislynch that Thrawn and Yourself seemed to cooperatively push backfired spectacularly, Thrawn claimed vig. You backed him but then realized that the situation was near hopeless which causes you both to decide in your QT to bus one another.
GG SCUM.
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