Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV
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On August 13 2012 15:10 Shady Sands wrote: BH is mostly right here. The hardest part about dealing with the 1-1-1 is how easily it can be disguised as a 1rax FE if you don't get an early scout in. Why are you buddying BH so hard? are you that desperate to establish your town cred before the game has even started?!?!? Blatant scum slip. SS IS SCUM! you heard it here first kids. | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:40 Shady Sands wrote: FYI These are the players that haven't posted yet: Darth GK Golbat Jhuyt Z-BosoN Ochrow YourHarry As a reminder, please link your filters and roles from prior games. Thank you. Shady I can't believe you are doing this again as it would have got you lynched in XXII if you didn't have a rock solid town claim. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ That being said, HI GUYS! I am super excited to be playing mafia with you. I live in Australia so my posting times will be different than yours. please don't use this as an indicator of alignment. I have some things to do today. but I will be posting fairly regularly etc. As for policy lynches; they are unnecessary if there is a vibrant discussion occurring. You fail to achieve vibrant discussion with OMGUS and Policy talk. GLHF <3 Here is my SCUM Filter from XXII. | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:15 Shady Sands wrote: Stutters. Stutters said something perfectly townish which you tried to soft twist into scummy play. Then you say: You're basically accusing stutters without accusing him directly. Why? Ok, I don't get this at all. Care to elaborate on what what exactly the case here is? | ||
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@Solarsail I strongly recommend that you as either town OR scum lift the quality of your posting. You are not doing yourself any favours by acting this way. Even though the case on you is weak, your over-reaction to it is Incredibly suspicious. I don't think this is a dead set scum read however, as you could equally just be a panicked townie. | ||
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Shady Sands The case that shady posted was incredibly weak. The first 'read' shady got certainly wasn't there. Even when shady clarified his reasoning it was a huge stretch. The whole 'soft accusing thing was nonsense and seems to be fabricated by shady out of thin air in order to pursue an agenda (this may be mis-lynching a townie or stimulating discussion) however something felt off about the whole thing, and was certainly not the same way shady was playing in XXII. I took a look through Shady's filter, the vast majority of posts contain one liner questions which add nothing to any cases. After this incredibly weak initial 'case' On August 15 2012 10:15 Shady Sands wrote: Stutters. Stutters said something perfectly townish which you tried to soft twist into scummy play. Then you say: You're basically accusing stutters without accusing him directly. Why? He does none of the 'scum hunting' that he has been speaking at length about nor adds to his case with anything but OMGUS until others board the bandwagon. In fact almost his entire filter is Fluff. On August 15 2012 10:16 Shady Sands wrote: It isn't normal, but it should speed up our scumhunting tremendously. On August 15 2012 10:27 Shady Sands wrote: Also, could you please link your play from the other game from the other forum? So we can see your meta? On August 15 2012 10:16 Shady Sands wrote: It isn't normal, but it should speed up our scumhunting tremendously. On August 15 2012 10:40 Shady Sands wrote: FYI These are the players that haven't posted yet: Darth GK Golbat Jhuyt Z-BosoN Ochrow YourHarry As a reminder, please link your filters and roles from prior games. Thank you. On August 15 2012 10:43 Shady Sands wrote: How is quoting you not helping anyone? Why should I post about someone else? And how does your vote get me to stop quoting you? On August 15 2012 11:34 Shady Sands wrote: GK, could you put up filters from XXIII and XXII? All these posts from his filter. No scum hunting which he has SAYS is the most important thing to do. Simply policy talk, OMGUS and one weak case. then after others have actually contributed to the thread: On August 15 2012 11:53 Shady Sands wrote: Heading out for the night. Great job keeping up the pressure on Solarsail. + Show Spoiler [Thrawn] + On August 15 2012 11:18 thrawn2112 wrote: Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts. In that case it would be easy for the mafia players to roll in later and pile more suspicion on solar and therefore away from themselves. As far as I could see most of the drama was based on your post asking why he is devoting his first post to appearing as town rather than use it to scumhunt. I think it's worthwhile pointing out that at the time of his original posting there were only a few D1 posts so far and not much to scumhunt on. I think right now we are still in a waiting game, people that haven't spoken up yet need to! In addition to questioning why Solarsail is devoting his first post to appearing as town, we should also be asking why he made this comment: Right after Stutters made the short comment about Hapa's XXIII postscript to open the game. + Show Spoiler [mkfuba] + On August 15 2012 11:19 mkfuba07 wrote: Dude, you're not helping your case. I didn't give anything that Shady had said any weight until you followed up his questions with overly emotional fluff and OMGUS. Your responses don't answer the questions he's raised, and provide nothing in the way of new content. While my read on you still says panicked townie, you have to cool off. Either respond to his questions seriously or make another case, or you're not helping town. Step it up. Playing the sarcastic martyr wins you no points. Great job keeping the discussion on track. Other than Solarsail, any other reads at the moment? @ Solarsail Note that when I began the entire train of questions at Solarsail, I was never directly accusing him of being scum: He immediately responded with hostility: This is what I want everyone to focus on. Why would Solarsail do this? Shady agrees with everyone who is inclined to jump on his bandwagon and congratulates them on keeping up the pressure on solar. He adds very little if anything to his already weak case yet tries to maintain momentum on this obvious bandwagon. The conclusion of his 'case' is not even a statement. It is simply a question of his motive. Something which requires little commitment and which you may easily back away from following a mislynch. What concerns me Is that he openly states that he would like everyone to focus on this. Focusing everyones attention on the mislynch of a bad townie is the perfect situation for scum. then we have this. On August 15 2012 12:07 Shady Sands wrote: I agree here. Thrawn's first post on the SK was extremely WIFOM: + Show Spoiler [Thrawn on SK] + On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote: Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player. If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK. Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. Why is Thrawn so concerned with getting town's attention on thinking about a SK, when SK is actually a bigger threat to scum than it is to town? His response to my question was yet more WIFOM: + Show Spoiler + On August 15 2012 10:11 thrawn2112 wrote: I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. Note the following sentence: Then he says he won't post about it until it becomes obvious there is an SK. Basically Thrawn is fluffing up his posts here with a mostly useless discussion. I'd like to see Thrawn commit to a case. Until then, ## FoS Thrawn2112 Another weak case which follows the pattern established with his initial case on Solarsail. He takes a VERY EARLY post by thrawn and twists it into something that is at best a stretch. He accuses Thrawn of 'fluffing up his posts with mostly useless discussion' which shady himself is guilty of. And posts meaningless questions on why you would ask about a SK and presents them as some form of case. This is not the Shady Sands I saw in XXII, Something feels off. and thus, a FoS is declared. FoS## Shady Sands | ||
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On August 15 2012 17:59 Shady Sands wrote: Given that XXII was my very first game of Mafia ever, it should be expected that my posting style has grown up between now and then. If you look near the end of the XXII game, you'll see me doing now what I was doing then--prodding people with questions and keeping the town's posting rhythm extremely high. That being said, I'm curious to know what you think about the Thrawn and Solar cases. You say they're weak. Why? Your posting was substantially better in XXII but perhaps that was because you were masoned and then confirmed town/heavily coached by BH. Asking questions which is 90% of the content that you have provide thus far, does not constitute making cases or scum hunting. all it does is maybe evoke a response from others without actually making a case or forming an opinion yourself. A very safe playstyle. and right now after I have cast suspicion on your 'case making' rather than strengthen the cases you have made you ask me to comment. Trying to look like contributing without contributing. Asking others to comment rather than commenting. The cases are weak because the cases do not exist. They were a stretch and the reasoning behind their scumminess was extremely convoluted and nonsensical. The posts you based your cases on were in my opinion obviously null tells, and then descended into WIFOM and OMGUS without adding anything further. All further points, fluff posts, appearing to contribute whilst not contributing, you yourself are far more guilty of then they. It is entirely possible they are scum. However the weak cases you have submitted and the accompanying fluff make you far more suspicious to me at this point. | ||
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On August 15 2012 18:17 Shady Sands wrote: How can you say that everyone seems to feel that Solar is now playing a pro-town style? Who has said this? This is exactly what I am talking about. One liner questions make up the overwhelming majority of your filter and do not fit with this post. On August 15 2012 09:42 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler [Thoughts on XXIII] + I'm still really mad at Hapa for essentially winning on luck in XXIII. Had GK actually spoken up in the game, Hapa wouldn't have had the GK lynch to work off of and we scum could have safely NK'd him without worrying about a medic save. Howdy town. Let's kick some scum ass. A few policy notes:
That's all for now, good luck everyone. In fact little if any of your posts adhere to these rules, or provide anything at all of substance. Yet you are the most active player. It seems that you are trying very hard to establish yourself as town. Without providing anything we can use if the case you are pushing returns a mislynch. | ||
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On August 15 2012 18:32 Shady Sands wrote: I see basically two lines of accusation here. 1) I'm asking a ton of questions and making it look like I'm contributing without actually contributing anything. 2) My two cases on Thrawn and Solar are weak. In response to 1): First, since it's only 12 hours into D1, there's not much material to work off of. That's why most of the posts have consisted of throwing around questions rather than 400 word case posts. Second, evoking responses, at this stage of the game, is critical. Without a solid base of accusations and counter-accusations in the first half of the day to work off of, there's no way to actually mine enough material to reliably identify and tunnel scum on the second half of the day. Evoking responses is important, but so is providing analysis and content which you have barely done. Without a solid base of analysis and content (especially that which is not a near fraudulent interpretation of something near meaningless) in the first half of the day to work off of, there's no way to actually mine enough material to reliably identify and tunnel scum on the second half of the day. There is not much material to work off yet you have encouraged everyone to bandwagon on the back of your interpretation of one post and solars subsequent reactions. (which are far more suspicious than any case on him you have provided.) On August 15 2012 18:32 Shady Sands wrote: In response to 2): I'm not certain how you can say your own case on me is any stronger than the cases I've put out on Thrawn and Solar. You seem to imply that since I called out Thrawn for being WIFOM/fluffy, and according to you, I've made more "fluff" posts than he has, then I'm more suspicious. But the case on Thrawn didn't rest on being WIFOM, it rested on the fact that Thrawn led off with an extremely long and odd rant on the SK; the case on Solar likewise didn't rest on that sort of accusation either--rather, it rested on the fact that he was actively being hostile to the town rather than defending himself AND his first post on what the scum was thinking was extremely suspicious. So my case on you is equally as weak as your cases? Yet you are presenting mine as invalid and yours as valid. The crucial difference between us is I have actually posted substantial cases based on the analysis of large amounts of posts in your filter and have followed the case up with additional content. You twisted near meaningless posts made at the very beginning of day one and have made a huge leap of assumption to even provide anything at all. And have followed that up with nothing further aside from fluff. My case is not nearly as weak as yours. The cases you made based on those posts were a gigantic stretch at best. Tunnelling these people without providing additional insight or content is harmful to town. | ||
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On August 15 2012 18:54 Shady Sands wrote: The way I play this game is to tunnel people until they either convince me that they're town or they end up dead via lynch or NK. That's how each townie should play this game--letting analysis go before one is satisfied is how scum slip out of our fingers. So you dropped your cases on SolarSail and Thrawn because you were entirely satisfied? are you scum slipping out of my fingers? Link me to the posts in which you become satisfied enough to drop your cases. Or are you dropping them because you have realised they are backfiring. Hard. I will look at the YourHarry case. The way he flipped on and off of SolarSail was suspicious and I am therefore rereading the thread and his filter. On August 15 2012 18:58 Shady Sands wrote: I just want to make this simple: are you committing to your read on me as the scummiest player so far? What kind of question is this? What does answering this question contribute to town? I will analyse and present cases on whoever I see as suspicious time allowing. I have found others scummy, you were the first that particularly jumped out at me. | ||
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On August 15 2012 19:19 Shady Sands wrote: The bigger issue, Darth, is why you are holding me responsible for a lack of analysis and content so far when I've been trying the hardest to get people to commit to reads on people and post more cases. Also, how is this post below: A lack of content and analysis? I note that you didn't include it in your long train of quotes on me, perhaps because it doesn't fit the picture you're trying to paint. So I ask you: How is the above case a bad case? How does it not provide content or analysis? If you can't find answers to those questions, then I'd respectfully ask you to start applying your own strict standards to YourHarry, who, by your logic, should be a far bigger scum than I am. I have mentioned that case several times. It is largely based on wild and convoluted assumptions in order to lead to anything meaningful. I have said previously you are either more guilty of the things you are accusing him of or are making assumptions based on a largely innocuous post. The not all, but the Overwhelming Majority of your posts are fluff. and the Analysis you do present is bad or a stretch. Which begs the question. Why would you be making such absurd stretches in your 'analysis' unless you are serving an agenda? I will look at Your Harry also. I have only been back for a short while and need to reread the thread. However I find it unusual that you are now, after suspicion has been cast upon you, casting aside your earlier cases without a clear or satisfying reason and trying to shift attention onto Your Harry. | ||
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On August 15 2012 19:30 Shady Sands wrote: Also, the question I asked you is to nail you down, Darth, because it seemed like you were saying I was scummiest player in the thread. But I think I misread your first post--thought you were FoS'ing me after reading through everyone else's posts, when you clearly hadn't done that at all. I look forward to seeing how your reads change once you've read more of the thread. I have read the thread twice. Your actions were particularly suspicious and thus I read through your filter carefully and presented my findings. You want to nail me down? are you implying that you find me scummy without going so far as to say it? My read on you won't change after I re-read the thread. Nothing you have said has quelled my suspicions of you. I may find others suspicious also. That does not require me to not find you suspicious as you are attempting to imply. | ||
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On August 15 2012 19:58 Shady Sands wrote: Again, you're saying my analysis is bad or a stretch without stating why they're bad. What's wrong with the case I've posted above? What are the holes? Until you can answer those questions, your case on me doesn't help the town. Furthermore, I am not casting aside those cases without a clear or satisfying reason. You're framing me for things I haven't done, which is anti-town. I explicitly stated that I'm moving to YH because I find his behavior even scummier than Thrawn's or Solar's. Furthermore, I stated why I think pushing on Thrawn or Solar when they're not in the thread and can't respond won't generate the sort of discussion that ends up helping the town. I am not framing you for things you haven't done. Why such a melodramatic Defense? You case was bad, because it was based on an assumption and the convoluted scum motivation you presented alongside that assumption. It was a stretch because the assumption you made was a stretch. Your cases bring very little to the table, and unlike XXII you are not confirmed town and cannot get away with such questionable arguments. You explicitly stated you were dropping the cases on them for now. Why not just move on without saying anything? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- With that being said. I strongly encourage everyone to read Your Harry's Filter It is so ridiculous that I feel bad I didn't jump on it sooner. @YOUR HARRY acting like you have some sort of outside information to make a PANTS ON HEAD series of posts is very suspicious and unless you have a rock solid excuse for what your filter currently consists of I have a very large; FoS## Your Harry On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote: Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now. It is 100% a good idea to reveal this information right now. | ||
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On August 15 2012 20:40 Shady Sands wrote: You're saying I was abandoning the cases for no reason, when I clearly stated I was temporarily dropping them to look at someone who I thought was scummier. There's a key difference between those actions and I think we need to be on the same page as to what they are. As for my cases on Solar and Thrawn, what assumptions were they based on that you found faulty? You still haven't responded to the specifics in my case at all. I'm not giving you a hard time here because I think you're scum--on the contrary, it's because you're a pretty logical player that I feel I need to convince you. Glad to see we agree on YH. OK some specifics. The assumption on the solar case was that his post was in some way 'soft accusing' someone on the basis of this post. On August 15 2012 09:32 Solarsail wrote: Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing. Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. The scum motive you put behind this is a huge stretch and as the basis of your case against him it is a very weak case. The second assumption is that this post was somehow scum trying to seem as if they were participating etc. and making it out to be any more than it is (beginning of the game Policy/Small talk) is a huge stretch and makes the case weak. That being said, If your harry doesn't have an extremely enlightening answer to his mysterious hints etc. I have a hard time finding anyone else more suspicious than him. @Your Harry Please explain the hints to outside information that you posted. If you do have a town reason for this it is better for you to claim etc. than for us to mislynch you. | ||
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On August 16 2012 03:48 YourHarry wrote: Posting from work. Mkfuba: First, there is a difference in cautiously wondering if Solar is a newbie townie, which is what you did, and knowing that Solar is a suspiciously playing town. This is what GK wrote: You guys propose the same thing in that Solar is not a good lynch. But the underlying basis for GK's proposal is based on what he somehow knows as a certainty. There is a subtle but important difference here. And this is why I think GK is scum, now that I realize that they are not mason brothers. Second, I do think the evidence was quiet sufficient. I am actually surprised that no one saw the same thing I did. In addition to GK's cooperative acceptance of Solar as just an over-agreessive townie , Solar's bold posting style fit almost perfectly once I started believing that he was a mason. Finally when GK no longer questioned me, I became more confident of my read. Also, what information do scums have that townies don't have that would allow scums to speculate better on mason alignments? There is one thing: since scums know everyone who is not scums, they may have easier time identifying the mason claims. But from my perspective, as long as I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together. I explained my reason for thinking that GK/Solar are not scums together, though I am having second thoughts about this. Thus, my identifying GK/Solar mason combination, even if it was based on less than convincing evidence does not lend much support to me being scum. You read way too much into a single post by GoodKarma and used that to base an entire read off? Whilst this seems plausible it is not enough to sell me on your Innocence. The swiftness in which you flip from voting for someone to believing him to be masoned is near unbelievable, unless you know that they were green. On August 16 2012 03:48 YourHarry wrote: I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together. You deemed someone which you had just proclaimed as scum and voted for to be green? and this allowed you to Identify the scum pair? You see, This is a major hole in your logic and perhaps the first slip of the game. You publicly stated that the reason you unvoted solar was that you believe he was masoned. Now you are saying that you could identify the mason pair as easily as scum because you ruled out the possibility of them both being scum. This is a fallacy. It seems very likely that you knew the alignments of both GK and Solar and that was the reason that you made the mason connection. | ||
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On August 15 2012 19:16 goodkarma wrote: Expect a meaningful case writeup on who I suspect to be likely scum sometime tomorrow. I am still eagerly awaiting this writeup GK. | ||
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On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Why are you actively trying to prove that someone is a town? rather than find the scum? what possible town motivation is behind this? It seems to me like you are trying to convince the one person at that time whom had still expressed doubts on Your harry's alignment to believe that he was town and not scum. This is not pro-town activity. Spending time trying to convince a particular person of a players green status day one is scum behaviour. | ||
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Your Harry: On August 16 2012 11:47 YourHarry wrote: If I am scum and knew that they were green, you could accept my sudden change in my point of view regarding Solar's alignment. Would scum Harry decide to compromise what seems to be a semi-promising mislynch in Solar (assuming Solar is not Harry's scum partner) to risk being suspected, by trying to protect who scum Harry thought was a mason? Then continue to sacrifice being suspicious by not revealing his initial read even despite continuous pressure, until it became obvious that Harry was wrong about his mason reads? Or is this more likely the course of action from a town Harry? This defense of your day 1 posting behaviour is WIFOM and incredibly difficult to make sense of. I don't know if it is your logic that I have a problem with or the way you are explaining yourself, but I am far from satisfied with this explanation. You were convinced enough to vote for solar sail. And then based on a lacklustre interpretation of GK's post, changed your mind completely. Aside from the fact that I do not see from that solitary post that GK is either mason or scum as you do, your posting seems to be based entirely on a mind blowingly large assumption. What I further find suspicious with you is the MARKED DIFFERENCE in your posting as soon as you were found to be suspicious. And that you resorted almost entirely to WIFOM in your defense. The Part of your story that bothers me the most is this. You were 'convinced' solarsail was scum. Then after one innocuous post from GK. View your number one scum read and GK as masoned. To change your mind this drastically that quickly and to leap to the assumption of a mason pair rather than scum without question is very strange. There are several more natural assumptions to make in that situation especially when you were 'convinced' Solar was scum: -Goodkarma simply believed Solar was bad town. This does not rule out solar as scum, and is by far the most likely scenario. -Goodkarma was defending her scum buddy. I do not believe this to be the case but I find this to be a far more likely assumption when the person she was 'defending' was clear scum in your mind. (you use WIFOM to eliminate this) -Goodkarma and solar are masoned. a huge assumption based on the content of GK's post. The only way this scenario jumps out at you as the immediate answer is if YOU KNEW BOTH SOLAR AND GOODKARMA'S ALIGNMENT. The slip is that you behaved in a way that is natural for someone whom knows these players alignments. And have attempted to explain away the more natural assumptions that someone in the dark would take with WIFOM. You even admit that your 'stated' reasoning behind the entire fiasco is WIFOM and barely believe it yourself. On August 16 2012 13:47 YourHarry wrote: actually, upon re-evaluation, I can accept the possibility that GK was indeed not sure about Solar's alignment but was indeed worried that we may tunnel on a player that he somehow thought was a town. Still, the alternative is also possible. It could have been a scum slip that GK is now fabricating the explanations for. Either way, since this is WIFOM, I want to partially retract my case against GK. and yet you were so sure and seemed incredulous when questioned. Your day one posting has been ridiculous, you have flip flopped your vote around, Defended your self with WIFOM, encouraged others to confrim you as town to your doubters, been incredibly wishy-washy and your explanation is a stretch at best, and a scumslip at worst. I will continue to watch you closely. In order to avoid an incredible wall of text I think I will just post this and then continue on reading the thread. | ||
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On August 16 2012 19:42 Shady Sands wrote: I am going to say this again very clearly: ## Vote Thrawn2112, ## FoS Ochrow Everyone just do it. Yeah shady. Any Town Cred you had just went flying out the window. To be honest I am having trouble following the narrative of the thread right now (perhaps I am just tired.) but this is a very anti-town post. Your case on thrawn2112 was OK. But attempting to stifle any further discussion and demanding everyone to sheep your reads (which is ironic because this is one of the things you are accusing these people of doing.) Is just flat out ridiculous. I want some clarity on what your case is. But the crux of the matter is this correct? On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote: But the issue with Archrun is you didn't compare him at all to the other lurkers. Nope. You just went ahead and joined in on Ochrow's accusation of Archrun without even offering any of your own analysis to back it up. Who were those other 3 people who had posted 4 times or less? Can you tell me who you checked? And of course you can't defend yourself from the blatant double-teaming you and Ochrow are doing. Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell. You may have already clarified your case and I have not yet got to it. If so could you just make a brief summary of your case. | ||
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I have been reading through Thrawn2112's filter. And something jumped out at me. thrawn2112 Thrawn throws a FOS on YH. On August 15 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote: I also put a FoS on yourharry. It was this post that most confused me out of all of harry's. After re-reading this thread, the 'right ball park' comment immediately caused me to start suspecting harry. It just doesnt seem like something somebody who is town would want to say. It looks like you are trying hint at something without ever saying it, but wouldn't a town player assume that any hints they drop intended for town players might also be picked up on by scum? What ball park are we talking about and why did you say mkfuba's question was a good question? These posts struck me as a little strange. YH is showing an eagerness, in fact the most eagerness out of anyone, to push a conclusion towards whatever reads (of solar and myself) have been presented, reads which so far people have found weak and/or unsubstantiated. Thrawn2112 Sheeps Shady and I on YH after the momentum against him had well and truly begun. But note the wording and lack of content or a clear statement in his conclusion. Incredibly wishy washy and adds nothing to the discussion. His very next post On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Immediately after his FoS on your harry. He comes up with several WIFOM scenarios to potentially explain YH's behaviour and then reaches the conclusion that not only is your harry no longer suspicious. He is town. What are these conclusions based off? ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING. He then proceeds to immediately push his town read of Your Harry. And when I call him on it? He explains that confirming town is pro-town behaviour. And your harry backs him. Bear in mind there is absolutely nothing in his post which explain his sudden change of heart. From FoS to pushing him as 'confirmed town' off the back of nothing whatsoever, directed at someone who had just put a FoS on Your Harry. This is not the same as confirming a townie and yet this is what it was represented as. Thrawn2112 actively tried to confirm Your Harry's Townieness. Which in the context of the thread and his FoSto town read is incredibly suspicious. On August 16 2012 11:07 DarthPunk wrote: Re-reading the thread something Thrawn stated seemed incredibly suspicious. Why are you actively trying to prove that someone is a town? rather than find the scum? what possible town motivation is behind this? It seems to me like you are trying to convince the one person at that time whom had still expressed doubts on Your harry's alignment to believe that he was town and not scum. This is not pro-town activity. Spending time trying to convince a particular person of a players green status day one is scum behaviour. On August 16 2012 11:31 thrawn2112 wrote: @darthpunk Also it seems to me that confirming somebody is town isn't a waste of time, it will give you new information yo0D So my case on you is ill have a narrower list of who potential scum could be. While it isn't the most important part of the game it isn't useless like you have described. He says that confirming a town whom he had just backflipped off for no reason is not a waste of time. Your Harry chips in that establishing himself as town is 'actually advantageous'. On August 16 2012 13:00 YourHarry wrote: Establishing someone as confirmed townie is actually very advantageous for town. Masons, for example, are nothing but confirmed townies to each other and can be very powerful, especially in the late game. It is also another reason why scums prefer to NK confirmed townies. But, of course, it is difficult to establish to 100% confirm townies, just like it is difficult to establish confirmed scums. So I agree that, in the beginning of the game, we should focus more on establishing scum read. But if obvious town read sticks out, we should share it with others. It is scum motivation to do the opposite - to limit as many town reads as possible. There was no town motivation for establishing Your Harry as town. But there was a scum motivation for protecting one of their own and establishing a scum as town. There was no explanation for Thrawn2112's backflip from FoS to dead set town read in the space of one post. Vote## Thrawn2112 FoS Your Harry | ||
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On August 17 2012 00:00 thrawn2112 wrote: Whatever happened to your campaign to get everyone posting their previous game filters? Based on what you have done since demanding filters from everyone, I don't see a pro-town motive for your request. Your reasoning in asking for them was that having filters can be very useful in getting reads on people's posts that are made in specific circumstances, such as what a player usually acts like when accused of being scum. After asking for everyone's filters, you haven't even brought the subject back up. What was the point of asking in the first place if you are not going to follow through with analysis? If you wanted to view the filters for your own sole benefit, it would have been way easier for you to just find the filters yourself. If you wanted the group to view the filters so that the town can make better reads, then why haven't you provided any analysis of a player's posting within this game to their posting within previous games? I can't figure out why you asked from them in the first place, which leads me to the conclusion that your filter requests were fluff. ##Vote Shady Sands This is just... I don't even know. The most hard to read piece of Irony in the thread. If you have a reason to vote Shady why is half your post such garbage? I have made far better arguments against shady and I haven't even voted for him. This is not a case, nor a read, and is certainly not enough to be the none OMGUS part of the post in which you vote for shady. This does nothing to aid in the scumhunting that is occuring. This is Fluff. It is distracting us from being able to clearly read the cases for and against you. | ||
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On August 17 2012 01:45 marvellosity wrote: Please format your votes correctly or THEY WILL NOT COUNT. Keirathi even posted about it on this page >.< Sorry. ##Vote: Thrawn2112 | ||
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I think this is a null tell. The important thing to pay attention to is the content or lack of content in a post. I am off to bed now. I will set an alarm and be back in a few hours. | ||
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On August 16 2012 11:31 thrawn2112 wrote: @darthpunk Also it seems to me that confirming somebody is town isn't a waste of time, it will give you new information you didn't have before and you will have a narrower list of who potential scum could be. While it isn't the most important part of the game it isn't useless like you have described. EBWOP: One of the Quotes in my case seems to have been garbled in the formatting stage. This is the correct Quote. | ||
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On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: As I said earlier, my vote against shady is not just a OMGUS reaction. Throuought our argument, shady kept bringing up the same accusations which to my knowledge I gave reasonable and believable responses to. It is not an OMGUS reaction? yet your arguments against shady are OMGUS. 'I am voting for him because he doesn't believe me' is OMGUS and is not a reason to vote for someone. Why do you feel the need to preface that your reposes are believable? On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: From my knowledge (which is that I am the only one I know 100% is a townie) is that shady is either trying to set me up because he is scum or he is a town player making some of the worst arguments possible. Why do you feel the need to point out you are 100% townie? So you believe shady to be scum or a townie who is making bad arguments against you. That is not a good enough reason to vote for him. The fact is that if you read through the thread there are far better cases against shady than what you are presenting. On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: I find it more likely that shady is scum because I really can't see how somebody could make such a bad argument. He even went so far as to say that it should be completely obvious to everyone else in the thread that my actions and ochrow's were coordinated. This claim was based on ochrow and I both putting a FOS on archrun within 30 minutes of each other. This is a nonsensical accusation to make. If I was scum with ochrow and trying to pin suspicion on archrun, I hope that my attempt would be way more subtle than what shady accused me of doing. I also pointed out that beyond the posting time and our both fos'ing the same player, he has given no evidence to support his claim. Anyone could easily use the same type of 'argument' against him, as he and archrun voted against me within 3 minutes of each other. By Shady's standards of evidence, the case for he and archrun being scum is even stronger than his case for ochrow and I being scum. I am not making a case that shady and archrun are both scum for those reasons, nor am I trying to prove that BOTH ochrow and I are innocent. It is just an example to show how truly unfounded shady's case was. I agree that the post timing should not be used as a read of some sort. However there are far more valid cases against you (my own for example) and the post timing was only one argument, and in no way constitutes Shady's entire case against you like you are implying. On August 17 2012 02:21 thrawn2112 wrote: The filter posts were a result of me thinking shady is scum because of how he was presenting his argument against me, so I went back through his filter and that was the first thing that leapt out at me as additional evidence of him being scum. The filter posts were nothing. You have brought back policy talk in the past and are doing so again. All this does is distract from the real cases and confuse the thread. This is not cause for a scum read in my opinion and shady has done far more suspicious things than ask people to post their filters day 1. | ||
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On August 17 2012 02:58 thrawn2112 wrote: The last post mkfuba made before I posted that quote, was this: Mkfuba puts a FoS on YH, with his reasoning being that YH was acting as if he had more information than anyone else concerning his read on solar and gk. I then posted: My first paragraph under the YH topic is a little difficult for me to understand right now. I'll admit that I was in no way giving a clear picture of my train of thought. As I posted the night before I made my posts about YH, I was not sober that night. If you are curious about this then go check what other threads I post in as it might cause you to believe that I was likely to be telling the truth about not being sober. Despite not being sober I did lurk in the thread for 3 or 4 hours before sobering up after a quick nap. I take notes whenever I read a new post, and my scattered train of thought after my nap was probably brought on by taking notes in a scattered frame of mind before the nap. The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH. However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why. I guess the lessons to be learned are to give reasoning behind my posts, and uh .... don't read the mafia forum if I'm not sober. So your defense to my entire case against you was that you were drunk? Not good enough. The justification that you provide for backflipping so swiftly from a FOS on YH to promoting him as town in your very next post seems weak. Because you have also had a feeling that two players were masoned, YH is not only cleared, but a dead set townie? You have said that you asked mkfuba07 if he had come around to your point of view to gain insight on his position. But he had JUST POSTED a case on YH in which his position was quite clear. You then change your mind and say that you wanted to ask mkfuba07 because you wish to know if your arguements were sufficient to convince him. Why are you so concerned with convincing a third party who had just cast suspicion onto Your Harry that he was innocent? This is incredibly suspicious You had not at that time, and still have not, presented reasons or arguements on how you suddenly changed your view on YH so much that you actively tried to persuade others to view YH as green The only reason or arguement to explain this incredibly suspicious behaviour is that you were drunk, don't really follow your own reasoning and the only real justification you have provided is that you were slightly inclined to believe Your Harry thought GK and Solar were masoned. This is the basis for your Switch from FOS to persuading others to view YH as town; and in that context talking about confirming townies does nothing to alleviate the suspicions raised in my case against you. That you speak about being drunk and brush off not providing reasoning with your switch like it is nothing furthers my suspicion towards you. On Shady Sands His case against Thrawn2112 was average at best. I don't think it was Suspicious enough to lynch him off though. And I certainly fail to see the scum game he is playing if he is scum. Why would a scum take on as much risk as Shady has to secure a day 1 mislynch? He has an incredible amount of exposure depending on flips. And will not likely last all that long if he is scum and his posting continues as it has been. He is still one of the people that I am suspicious of but I DO NOT feel as that he is a good day one lynch. | ||
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On August 17 2012 06:21 thrawn2112 wrote: A lot of your post was VERY difficult to follow. Not because of logic... I had to re-read sentences a few times because I couldn't figure out what you were trying to say. This has nothing to do with my read on you.... lol I'm honestly just having a hard time following your post. I am having a similar problem with your posts | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote: My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns? I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town. You are now Guilty of the exact same thing as Archun except you have worded it without looking blatantly suspicious. That makes you more suspicious to me than Archun's post did. I don't see why you have a 'strong town read' on thrawn, I don't think any one in their right mind could have a strong town read on him at this point in time. I could see why you don't think he is the best lynch candidate, but strong town read? give me a break. In no way at all does Archun's post confirm Thrawn as town. Jesus Christ. First thrawn does it for you and now you are doing it for thrawn. | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:15 Solarsail wrote: I would be prepared to swap to Archrun, but I don't want to unvote quite yet in case Thrawn is accidentally lynched, since the Archrun route implies Thrawn is town. How does it Imply Thrawn is town? | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:12 thrawn2112 wrote: My initial FOS on yourharry was bad play. I didn't have sufficient evidence to put a FOS on YH. My suspicion was only based off of how many times yh had flip-flopped so I was wary of him. The FOS was unwarranted. I called FOS without putting enough thought into the decision. I do think that I gave a good explanation of why I later believed he was town: I clarified my argument after being pressed about it: This is not a good argument. I am inclined to believe Your Harry does not give a town read. at best it is null. and is incredibly weak in the context of you pushing your 'town read' so heavily. There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip. | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote: Vote count, cowboys: ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline! Er. What? It is a tie. What happens then? | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:43 Golbat wrote: In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses). OK thanks. | ||
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[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip.[/QUOTE] You say my justifications were poor, and I say they weren't..... That's fine. But is not a particularly compelling reason to change my mind when they so obviously are poor. Let me be clear. The justifications you gave would be acceptable to give Your Harry the benefit of the doubt. But to make a town read and then champion that read. Not a chance. | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:46 DarthPunk wrote: That's fine. But is not a particularly compelling reason to change my mind when they so obviously are poor. Let me be clear. The justifications you gave would be acceptable to give Your Harry the benefit of the doubt. But to make a town read and then champion that read. Not a chance. | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:52 YourHarry wrote: Darth, there is such thing as a town read. You may disagree on what reads we have etc, but whatever. We can talk about that later. For now I would like to get your attention to Archrun. Did I say there was not such a thing as a town read? No. I said that the justification for HIS town read was marginal and I could definitely see a scum motivation behind his actions. Just as I can see a scum motivation for you two to constantly soft-defend each other, have strong town reads on each other with little or no explanation. Using third party posts to justify these town reads. Then defending the town reads you each have on one another. | ||
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On August 17 2012 08:57 YourHarry wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote Shady Flipping off shady when he has a majority. Flipping back on when the votes are tied. | ||
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On August 17 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote: OK. It's OK. This should provide further evidence that Archrun is scum. The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2 In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read. And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town. What the Fuck? This does not confirm Archun as scum. You are doing the exact thing that you Initially found Archun suspicious of. And it certainly does not confirm Thrawn as town. | ||
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Night guys. | ||
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Thrawn Shady was an obvious counter wagon that sprang up very quickly and with the kind of momentum that comes from scum coordinating to push a mislynch on someone. He was also the top scumread of now townie shady sands and was very active in pushing the shady mislynch. On August 18 2012 06:58 thrawn2112 wrote: Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight. He is now trying to paint Archrum who didn't vote for the shady mislynch as a more likely suspect than those who were influential in orchestrating the counter wagon on shady. Namely himself and Your Harry. My second Scum read is Your Harry The half hearted and altogether too late masquerade to alter his vote to Archun seems like an rather obvious attempt to distance himself from the shady mislynch and to set up a mislynch the following day. He is guilty of the exact thing that he accuses Archun of and yet the way he is going about it is far more suspicious. He also maintained a vote buffer on shady sands throughout the voting cycle and based it on some interplay with Thrawn. Although he says only one townie had to switch to Thrawn two actually did The thing that makes me very suspicious of these two is that they are now trying to paint themselves, two of the people who lead the obvious counter wagon on shady as being confirmed town after shady's flip and are now obviously trying to set up another lynch on someone whom suspected thrawn on a questionable interpretation of a single post for a reason that they are both now far more guilty of. I will post far more detailed discussion on both these players if I live. However If I die. Town, please seriously consider lynching Your Harry and Thrawn ASAP @Your Harry and Thrawn: Yes I understand what you are saying about Archun. However I don't buy your case or your interpretation of the post it is based on. | ||
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On August 18 2012 08:17 thrawn2112 wrote: So you're saying I should be investigating myself and yourharry instead of archrun? No. I am not saying you should investigate yourself. Is that what you genuinely got out of my post? | ||
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On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote: Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. Err. What? ##FoS Ochrow | ||
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On August 18 2012 08:34 thrawn2112 wrote: No I do not think that you think that town thrawn should investigate to determine if thrawn is town or scum lol. But you seem to think that I and harry are most deserving of suspicion, and my post was an attempt to show why I, as town thrawn, am investigating archrun. I explained my read on yourharry, and the 'investigate myself' comment was a (probably lame) attempt at humor. Yep, which is why the post was not really directed at you. Because I think you may be scum. | ||
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On August 18 2012 08:44 DarthPunk wrote: Yep, which is why the post was not really directed at you. Because I think you may be scum. Why are you constantly addressing yourself as town thrawn? You seem pretty desperate to establish your townieness. Or perhaps as Scum Thrawn you need to constantly think about what your towny alter ego would be doing and that is coming out in your posting. Sounds somewhat similar to zork from XXII. | ||
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##Vote: Thrawn ##FoS Your Harry ##FoS: Orchrun I 100% agree with Goodkarmas post and it fits my reads completely. I was also roleblocked. I can't imagine a town role blocking me. So scum saw fit to do it. As I have been pressuring YH and thrawn it all adds up. GG Scum. | ||
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On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote: I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn. ##Vote Thrawn also, ##FoS YourHarry His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. Shady is dead dude. He flipped town. | ||
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On August 18 2012 09:47 thrawn2112 wrote: You always describe my motivations as how they make sense to scum thrawn, I am trying to get you to see how they are more reasonable coming from town thrawn. There have been quite a lot of things said about me and it will take a good amount of time to write up a post. Expect one in the next couple hours. The Issue is that the scum motivation behind your play is clear as day to me. When Yourself and Your Harry try to paint yourselves as town it is based on large assumptions, misinterpreting posts in order to further your agenda, WIFOM etc. Yourself and Your Harry clearly tried to lead another Mislynch on Archrun. and were trying to use a ridiculous interpretation of one post of his to paint yourselves as confirmed town. Something which you have been trying to do for one another since day one. Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. | ||
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On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Lets look at the events that have happened during D1/N1 Shady was lynched and flipped town Archrun was killed and flipped town Mkfuba was killed and flipped town Goodkarma and Darthpunk both claim to have very strong reads on me as scum. Their reasoning is that I was pushing for shady and archun to be lynched, and both of them flipped town. Mkfuba wrote a very long post on why he had a town read on me: Which is completely irrelevant. On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? No, I did not see a scum agenda behind mkfuba's post but I did see one behind yours. He questioned Your Harry, you put a FoS on YH and then IN YOUR VERY NEXT POS found him town (a read you have defended to the death ever since) with no explanation or arguement. Tried to confirm him as town against the prevailing consensus at the time. You both have since spent a large amount of effort trying to confrim one another as town, when no person in their right mind could have a strong enough town read on either of you to do that. There are a whole hosts of reasons I find you scummier, despite the way in which you are trying to divert/misrepresent my case on you. On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. So aside from the WIFOM, your entire defense is that you are claiming VIG? Do you have any evidence or are just you scum desperate to get yourself out of a whole? On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? WIFOM, ally of scum. You cannot argue the case against you, so now you are resorting to WIFOM. Honestly how stupid do you think I am? | ||
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On August 18 2012 10:28 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: I just read your post. I believe you. I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway. Of course YOUwould be the one to see this weak as shit breadcrumb. If it is even a breadcrumb. Of course YOU would Immediately accept him to be vig without any discussion whatsoever. | ||
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On August 18 2012 10:49 thrawn2112 wrote: Darthpunk: Right before I claimed vig I read the "General Guide to Mafia." This is what I read: "Claiming that you shot player X as a vig after the fact is usually a good claim if you have no shots left, especially if you hit a red, as you bring new information to the table that the mafia cannot punish." The guide takes a pretty strong stance against role claiming, with the exception of Vigilante. You say that my argument concerning mkfuba is wifom. However I think it provides a very strong reason why I wouldn't kill mkfuba as scum thrawn. He was the MOST convinced that I was town, and wrote a very long argument as to why he believed so. He had the strongest town read on me, and was killed. I cannot conceive of any possible mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town. That argument is WIFOM and is therefore useless regardless of what you want us to believe. | ||
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On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: For the record, and I am repeating myself here, my strong town read on thrawn was based on my strong scum read on Archrun. That is bullshit. You yourself stated that your town read on him was CONFIRMED by that post not based on that post. On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance) A Thrawn Lynch has been met with an Incredible amount of resistance so far. Shady's counter wagon and mislynch were almost a direct response to it. You yourself have spent vast amounts of time and effort trying to establish Thrawn as town and are continuing to soft-defend him and stop him from being lynched at the same time as you cast VERY MILD suspicion on him. On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn. So now it is an initial town read? LMAO Even though you said before archuns post that you had a town feel from thrawn and defended his laughable town read of you? Seems like you are trying to play down the connection between you both and are preparing to Bus him. On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill. This is obvious but I 100% agree. and yet you believed thrawns claim almost Immediately despite it containing no evidence and there being no discussion. If thrawn was the Vig, He 100 percent should have crumbed his hit in the night post. On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums. Thanks for gracing us with more WIFOM Your Harry. even though you point it out doesn't mean it stops being useless. You seem to be desperate to distance yourself from Thrawn's red flip. I find it very plausible that after Shady made a case against thrawn you and your scum buddies decided to form a counter wagon onto shady. I find Thrawn, Yourself and Ochrow all incredibly suspicious. Who do you find suspicious? | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote: I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. You are lurking pretty hard buddy. I would also like to ask Ochrow, solarsail Z-Boson and Stutters to increase their contributions. | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:13 DarthPunk wrote: That is bullshit. You yourself stated that your town read on him was CONFIRMED by that post not based on that post. On August 17 2012 08:10 YourHarry wrote: My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns? I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town. | ||
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On August 18 2012 14:13 Stutters695 wrote: I agree 100% that if a Vig exists but didn't shoot Arch, they should NOT counter-claim. I disagree that waiting is fruitless and lynching thrawn is a good play currently. No matter how we spin it, Thrawn is now tied to Archrun's death. If Thrawn is town, he has no incentive to lie and claim a kill he didn't commit (likewise about being a 1shot vig [which really isn't that uncommon for balance purposes in minis, from what I've read >1shot Vigs are a rarity]). Now if we don't lynch Thrawn today his fate is directly tied to future NKs. If he's scum and another Vig took a shot last night it would be absolutely terrible play for him to claim the kill he had no knowledge of. A counter-claim if we have a vig essentially kills him for no value at all to the scum team. If 2 people die Night2 a Thrawn lynch is essentially a given Day 3 and we'll see then. If only one person dies it either means he's telling the truth or either the scumteam or SK decided to hold their shot to throw us off (good for us in that we save a night kill). Essentially it comes down to how certain we are that Thrawn is scum. If he flips red we're in a great position and have a lot of info to go off of. If he flips blue we've wasted Day 2 on a lynch that we could have gathered info by letting him live while trying to catch other scum. Currently I'd rather focus on other targets and see what we can do as opposed to gambling on this. I'm about to reread the thread and get some thoughts up on my reads, I just wanted to weigh in on this. I am fine with not lynching thrawn today and lynching Your Harry instead. | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:32 Golbat wrote: I agree i'm lurking, but I feel that I have at least contributed well for my sparse filter. I made my case on thrawn, and cast my vote. When I see something worth discussing I mention it. I may not be living in the thread as hard as you, harry or thrawn, but at least I've contributed. What do you suggest I do to be less "lurky"? Make a shit case on someone in a misguided attempt to look active? Last game it got me lynched and cost town a vigi shot. I'll go over the thread again and see if anything catches my eye, but I don't really see a case I can make that hasn't already been made ATM. At the very least i'll prod some people in my next couple posts. Why so defensive? I understand that you got lynched for being over eager in XXII but your posting is markedly different than what I experienced there (although you were only alive for 24 hours so not much of a meta to read ) my post was not a personal attack but rather a call to all lurkers to contribute something. | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote: How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town. | ||
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On August 18 2012 16:00 Golbat wrote: Isn't that the same way you caught Zork in XXII? I was Godfather in that game. but yes it was similar. | ||
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On August 18 2012 16:03 thrawn2112 wrote: Darthpunk, you have been twisting everything I've said to you into more reasons why I'm scum, and for that I'm going to be looking closely at your filter. It seems like you're less interested in seeing what I have to say and more interested in convincing town I'm scum regardless of my arguments. Goodkarma on the other hand even asked me to defend myself. I can sense sincerity in his motivations but you just seem focused on interpreting everything I say as evidence against me. @goodkarma dont worry it's coming LOL OMGUS vote number 2 incoming. I am listening to your arguments but as GoodKarma stated they don't really exist aside from your Vig claim and a truckload of WIFOM. You can be sure that if you come up with something good enough, I will view it with an open mind and adjust my position accordingly. | ||
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On August 18 2012 18:09 thrawn2112 wrote: Regarding WIFOM: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM I read the definition, and have come to the conclusion that people keep using that word and I do not think it means what they think it means. We all know what it means. | ||
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On August 19 2012 10:19 thrawn2112 wrote: Here is the page where it happened. Notice that Ochrow and I both made posts on August 15, 5:27 KST. In these posts, we both come to the conclusion that yourharry and solar are town and we use similar reasons causing people to later on (nobody pointed it out when it happened) to think Ochrow and I are sharing qts. Solar and yourharry were definitely in the spotlight at that time, of course they would be the ones who anyone posting would choose to talk about. Do you think that it is more likely that scum thrawn/ochio decided to make posts at the exact same time, about the exact same people, and use the exact same arguments? I say it is more reasonable to think it's a coincidence caused by yourharry and solar being in the town's spotlight. I am not making a wifom argument, because my argument is that you should think that the coincidence option is more likely to be true. Ochrow puts a FOS on Archrun in that post. I did not. My post contained nothing about Archrun. The post I made about Archrun did not happen until 7:11 KST, just short of two hours later. I quoted Ochrow's 5:27 post to show my agreement that Archrun should be a target, and I gave my reasons for doing so. My reasons happened to look like a rewording of what Ochrow said, because both of the things that we said were true and they were the best reasons anyone would have given for why Archrun should be suspected. The fact that I didn't mention Archrun until a post that happened after the 5:27 posts everyone is looking at, and the fact that I quoted Ochrow's earlier post to show that I agreed with him that Archrun should be pressured makes the coincidence theory even more believable. I did not know what Ochrow was writing at 5:27. After I posted my 5:27 post I read his 5:27 post and then quoted it in my next post to show my agreement with his FOS on Archrun. Despite agreeing with Ochrow about Archrun, my FOS on Archrun came up independently from Ochrow's read. I had looked at all the lurkers, read all their early game filters, and then I choose the one whose posts contained the least substance. This is all I can possibly say concerning the ochrow-thrawn qt theory. I am not making a wifom argument, as I don't think that from somebody else's perspective that the coincidence explanation and the qt explanation are equally likely. I am very hesitant to post this, but I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway just in case it will convince some of you. I think there are some people who have already closed their minds to the possibility that I'm town so I do not care if they don't accept this post. I'm not going to discuss this issue again because I don't have anything else to say about it and I don't want to waste time. If I am lynched, when I flip blue all you town players need to go back and look at the filters of whoever made arguments against me, and you should also look through my filter at the scum reads I'm currently working on. Currently I have a case against Yourharry and I've pointed out some odd statements in one of Ochrow's posts. I'm waiting on responses to my cases both from them and from everyone else. It is probable that both you and Ochrow posting at the exact same time is a coincidence, that being said, I think the suspicions of a shared QT rely more on the fact that, without influence from either of each other; You both post almost the exact same thing on the exact same people, you both find Your Harry town against the prevailing sentiment with incredibly weak reasoning which makes it look as if painting Your Harry as town is part of an agenda you both shared. You further push your Town Harry agenda throughout your discussions with me until you both backflip from your town reads at around the same time and start bussing eachother. I find your Vig claim to be weak because it was made 'after the fact' with no breadcrumb before the day post of your hit it is so weak that the lack of a counter claim does not exonerate you. Vig should be the easiest role to claim and yet yours is incredibly lacking. What makes me even more suspicious of you is this On August 18 2012 15:59 DarthPunk wrote: What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town. Blatant scumslips that you have brushed aside and are almost the nail in your coffin. I am 90% sure you are scum With all that being said you have continued to argue against your lynch and have contributed vastly more than many of the players here. Whilst I hardly agree with the majority of your arguments you are generating discussion and providing content and that does give you some credit in my opinion. Ochrow on the other hand whom is just as suspicious as yourself has not contributed anything, has not defended himself etc. and this post: On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote: At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight. Is incredibly suspicious combined with the Mkfuba NK. The Mkfuba Nightkill was very confusing in that it had no clear motive and was, I think, an attempt to confuse us. Further, the lack of a counter claim has me a bit nervous. Whilst I can completely understand if the real vig chose not to claim at this point in time. It is the one thing that makes me reconsider auto lynching you. As it stands I still have Strong scum reads on Your Harry, Thrawn and Ochrow and am willing to support any of these lynches. However taking into account his contribution (which I may strongly disagree with, but contribution nonetheless) to the thread and lack of a counter to his Vig claim, whilst I still think he is scum he is no longer my primary priority. ## Unvote I have yet to decide who out of my three reads I prefer right now and may vote for thrawn after all. But I have a very strong scum read on Your Harry so I will be focusing on him. ## Vote:Your Harry | ||
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On August 19 2012 10:39 Stutters695 wrote: I'm going to go through filters and draw up some better cases after I run to the store, but just some food for thought. I'd wager that if Thrawn is actually Vig, YH is scum 100%. And I would wager that if Thrawn was not the Vig Your Harry is scum. Either way he is scum and must be lynched. | ||
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Reads that do not make sense unless aware of alignments. I originally found him Suspicious due to his flip flopping around Solarsail. He explained that this was due to a mason read on GK and Solar sail which I believed to be an incredibly odd connection to make, and the only way in my mind that he would make that connection first is if he was scum. Your Harry's assumption was indeed NATURAL for one who knew both good karma's and Solar's alignments but confusing to those who did not. When I pointed this out he attempted to explain the more natural assumptions that someone in the dark would take with WIFOM. He admitted that his stated reasoning behind his mason read was WIFOM and barely believed it himself. On August 16 2012 13:47 YourHarry wrote: actually, upon re-evaluation, I can accept the possibility that GK was indeed not sure about Solar's alignment but was indeed worried that we may tunnel on a player that he somehow thought was a town. Still, the alternative is also possible. It could have been a scum slip that GK is now fabricating the explanations for. Either way, since this is WIFOM, I want to partially retract my case against GK. Your Harry made a blue read that was unnatural to someone with no knowledge of alignments to make. This has largely been forgotten but was A major point that I kept my FoS on your harry at that time. You may think that making such odd reads was an isolated incident. Except that he did it again. On August 18 2012 10:28 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: I just read your post. I believe you. I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway. Once again he makes a blue read swiftly and without discussion. A read that would be easy to make if you were aware of others alignments, but certainly not if you were in the dark. I originally thought that this post was an attempt for Your Harry to validate Thrawn's Claim. This remains entirely possible, but even if Thrawn is telling the truth these posts are still damning. He has made two blue reads that are only plausible if you view them with the knowledge of their alignments. Never mentioning Ochrow as a lurker despite FoS on all lurkers Your Harry has NOT ONCE called out Ochrow for lurking, Despite laying a FoS on every other lurker in the game and wanting to potentially policy lynch one of them. On August 16 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking. On August 17 2012 05:20 YourHarry wrote: I think the best lurker lynch candidate is Golbat. Stutters and Jyhut don't have many posts, but at On August 17 2012 05:38 YourHarry wrote: Thrawn, it is called policy lynch for a reason. I don't particularly find Golbat scummy, but if someone doesn't post he should be lynched. That's policy. This will encourage more participation in subsequent days. In this post he says it doesn't really matter which lurker is lynched, and yet he has not even mentioned Ochrow at all in his lurker group. On August 17 2012 05:30 YourHarry wrote: @Thrawn While there probably is such thing as lynching the best lurker, they are basically all lurkers. I did read your explanation on your choosing Arch, but it doesn't seem substantial to me. Having little content in your post is a scum-tell but when someone is lurking, I think it makes a little difference. All of them have minimal contents in their post, so I disagree with your analysis of Arch being the best lurker. I think most important thing is how promising is it that these lurkers will become active posters. I see Arch beginning to contribute, now that there are more posts to go on. So I think Arch could be more active from now on, which will give us posts to base our reads on. If it doesn't matter which lurker is lynched why is Ochrow absent from all the list of lurkers that you originally FoS and why does he not mention him at all when he was clearly lurking. Having to specify he is not scum because it is clear tthat his arguments look scummy. On August 17 2012 09:21 YourHarry wrote: Darth, maybe I didn't explain myself clear enough. This is how I interpret Archrun's motivation. By saying that exactly one of Shady or Thrawn is scum, he is basically proposing to lynch the other one if one flips town. So if Shady flips town, he is asking us to lynch Thrawn and vice versa. This way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated. In this post he is either trying to establish his scum partner as town, which he has done all game. Or, If thrawn is actually green he is using knowledge of alignment to make his cases. He even realizes this is incredibly scummy and acknowledges this. This is a classic slip. Making excuses for your posts before anyone has even accused you for them. On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote: And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. Again guilt of his actions scumminess before anyone has even accused him. Classic Scum behaviour. It is even written about in the guides. This post is also damning as it seems he was desperate to avoid a thrawn lynch at all costs. And yet, he incredibly also states that thrawn was one of his scum reads at the same time as he was saying he was all but confirmed town. and that I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. The last thing I want to point out that makes me believe he is scum is this. As I mentioned before he instantly believes thrawns vig claim with shaky reasoning and little discussion. Then he defends and defends and defends thrawn as if his own success depended on it Defends Thrawn from day one onwards. Then immediately after that post where it seems as if he just wants to delay the inevitable. We get On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: For the record, and I am repeating myself here, my strong town read on thrawn was based on my strong scum read on Archrun. It turns out that I was wrong, but in my recent game, the scum did exactly the same thing as Archrun - attempting to benefit from a mislynch of one townie to ensure a mislynch on the second townie. So I felt confident that Archrun was trying to do the same thing. Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance), I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn. And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill. At this point, it seems like a safe claim from scum's point of view - knowing that SK would never claim at this point. And as far as the quick wagon on Thrawn, it is possible that all of the players voting for Thrawn are indeed all townies and they are correct about Thrawn being scum. And I guess it is also possible that one or more scums are bussing their scum partner in Thrawn. In addition, I also find Thrawn's attempt to discourage the detective from investigating him (despite him not having the misfortune of being the miller) suspicious. I tend to think that townies want to feel the peace of mind in being confirmed by the detective. And, I was not trying to keep Thrawn alive as long as possible, per se. I just thought that there could have been a strategy that we can employ that would allow us to find out Thrawn's alignment without having to compromise town's interest. But as goodkarma suggested, since townies can get a medic save OR scums may intentionally forgo one night kill (although extended giving up of the scum kill power or SK not sending in the kill could be eliminated from the possibility, for reasons I described earlier). As such, I am withdrawing my proposal to try to wait and see Thrawn's alignment. I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums. Also, if you do get a chance, I advise everyone to read the XXI game (Mafia XXI Link and Scum Dr. Wiggle's Filter). I believe you will have a much easier time understanding where I was coming from, in terms of my strong suspicion of Archrun and thus my earlier town read on Thrawn. For reasons explained above: ##Vote Thrawn His Very. Next. Post. Almost as if it was decided in his QT that he was going to bus Thrawn. And this is exactly what he does. HARD. There is no natural progression from staunch defender to rabid accuser. Read his filter. Read the interplay between Thrawn and Your Harry. They clearly defend each other for a lengthy period of time and then almost like someone has flicked a switch or collectively made a decision they begin to bus one another. | ||
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On August 19 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: And you say that if Thrawn is vig, I am 100% scum. I don't think Thrawan is vig, but let's suppose that he is vigilante. What does scum Harry have to gain by trying to confirm Thrawn's alignment based on tonight's actions. Also, looking back on Day 1, why would scum Harry make himself so suspicious by preferring to lynch Archrun or even Shady, when scum Harry knew that Thrawn lynch would be just fine? To me, mislynch in Archrun, Shady, or Thrawn would have been just fine. On the other hand, it was because I had a strong scum read on Archrun, that I wanted to defend Thrawn. This is WIFOM. But i will explain to you what I believe the answer to be. You wanted to stop Thrawn flipping red at all costs as you to were and are still clearly linked. You jumped on the shady mislynch when it was a tie. Causing a thrawn lynch to require 2 townies to switch instead of just one. After realizing you will look really bad when shady flips green you jump on to Archrun in order to distance yourself from the Shady mislynch. When the votes tie once again you jump back on to shady in order to retain your majority. During this time you have laid the groundwork for a second mislynch of Archrun on day 2. A mislynch which you began pushing Immediately after the night post which SCREAMED scum to me. On August 17 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote: OK. It's OK. This should provide further evidence that Archrun is scum. The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2 In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read. And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town. Maybe you convinced the real Vig enough to cause him to use his shot. Maybe the real vig was smart enough to realize that Archruns flip would provide a great deal of information without a wasted lynch. Either way the follow up mislynch that Thrawn and Yourself seemed to cooperatively push backfired spectacularly, Thrawn claimed vig. You backed him but then realized that the situation was near hopeless which causes you both to decide in your QT to bus one another. GG SCUM. | ||
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On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: Strong defense of Thrawn. Because I thought Archrun was for sure scum. This made me think Thrawn was for sure town, because ARchrun wanted to lynch Thrawn and Shady. This is a flat out lie. You stated BEFORE THAT POST that you had a strong town read on Thrawn and that post CONFIRMED IT Had already been soft-defending him and claiming a town read. You lie. On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: Night post from Thrawn made me think he was blue role. So I quickly believed Thrawn's vig claim. Another terrible read that conveniently fits into your agenda. On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: Upon re-evaluation and taking into account that Archrun flipped town, I had to get rid of my initial town read on Thrawn. You missed the part where you first defend him several times and only change your mind because it was impossible to defend him. On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: And when Thrawn denied his breadcrumb post, made me think why did vig not leave a breadcrumb post. It followed that Thrawn had to wait until the SK kill was apparent, before he could ever claim. Also the fact that I think in the same "breadcrumb" post, Thrawn discouraged the detective to check him out. So now pretty strong scum read on Thrawn. Using a poor role claim as a weak excuse to dramatically shift (bus) your vote and position. I have tried that before didn;t work. Won't work now. | ||
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On August 19 2012 13:13 YourHarry wrote: OK. He hasn't posted much, and can I talk about my theories regarding him. I have had so much suspicion on me for being wrong about my assumptions, but I have an alignment-related theories. I guess it should be OK because I could be wrong and scums may not believe me anyway or if they believe me they may be wrong. OMFG you are doing it AGAIN?!?!? On August 19 2012 13:18 YourHarry wrote: Actually, never mind. It will just sound really stupid again and people will suspect me. And if I am right, it's not a good thing for town. I have a town read on him. I don't know if Ochrow was scum with Thrawn, he would NOT have coordinated such similar ideas with Thrawn. Maybe WIFOM, but I think it is just as likely that their similar postings were coincidence. Seriously YH? what is wrong with you. Once again hinting at outside information or making a pants on head retarded read. and not telling us. What town motive could there be in not sharing this info? What possible read could you get from ochrows non-existent filter? I am assuming you are hinting a blue read. | ||
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On August 19 2012 14:04 YourHarry wrote: Hey Darth, I will respond to your posts by sections because you came up with so many reasons why I am scum. First, me thinking that GK and Solar are masons. You are right, that it would be more difficult for town to make that read because town may have thought that GK and Solar are scums together. But I did, also. I explain it in my earlier explanation. And while making that assumption that GK and Solar are probably not scums together could be WIFOM, wouldn't you say it is understandable for a townie to think "Hmm, I doubt scum GK would defend scum Solar so openly because it would be too obvious that the other is scum, if one of them flips red." And if I was scum, why would I have withdrawn my suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum partner. If scum Harry thought that he identified two mason brothers, would he have not kept it a secret and maybe target one of them at night... instead of withdrawing suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum buddy. And if scum Harry was doing this simply to earn some town points, would he not more readily revealed his read that GK and Solar are masons - instead of waiting, despite much suspicion, until it became apparent that they were not masons? Too much WIFOM. I think you already know this. But it makes the majority of this post meaningless. | ||
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On August 19 2012 14:07 YourHarry wrote: I think about a lot about these things, OK. Maybe it's my imagination. It's just that none of us are currently a blue role, I went through different blue roles on page 1 to see which one fits who. I think it's stupid. Please, just ignore it. Do you honestly expect us to ignore something like that? | ||
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On August 19 2012 15:28 thrawn2112 wrote: please, not like this He may just be replaced, although that expression and that you were the one who noticed makes me think he went missing from your QT.... | ||
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On August 19 2012 14:30 YourHarry wrote: You dismiss almost everything I say as WIFOM, but your case also includes the similar WIFOM. You accuse me for defending Thrawn, because scum Harry would defend Thrawn. But even if I were to bus Thrawn in the beginning of Day 2, you could have made the case that scum Harry is simply defending his scum partner. Similarly, if it is possible for scum Harry to continue to defend Thrawn, despite others being suspicious, because busing would have made Harry suspicious - "he is simply trying to bus afterall" No. You see, I have made a strong and lengthy case on you that has been growing since day 1. My case on you does not involve WIFOM but your defense (including this post) does. The fact that you are restorting to admitting you look bad and then saying 'why if I were scum would I look bad' is so suspicious it makes my eyes bleed. If not for that vigi hit you wouldn't look too bad. You would be sitting pretty, pushing a second mislynch painting Thrawn and Yourself as near confirmed town. On August 19 2012 14:30 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: But even if I were to bus Thrawn in the beginning of Day 2, you could have made the case that scum Harry is simply busing his scum partner. so you are admitting you bussed thrawn? Now I guess I should address your harry's case against me. On August 19 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: OK. I need to re-evaluate. Possibility of Darth, Thrawn, Golbat scum team is what I am currently thinking. Darth says he is so sure that Thrawn and I are scums together, as he outlined in the case, but he suddenly wants to vote me rather than Thrawn. Thrawn has an unchallanged vigi claim to back him. you have squat. I have already stated that this introduces about 10% doubt in my mind and combined with actually attempting to contribute is enough for me to hold off on him for now. On August 19 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: I know Thrawn and Darth scum team would be surprising, because of how hard Darth has been accusing Thrawn. But this can be explained because Thrawn flipping scum may almost confirm Darth as town. This may have been their initial plan, and Thrawn's distancing of Golbat can be classified as similar strategy. Sacrifice one scum to mislead town to believe Golbat and Darth are townies. So my plan was to bus Thrawn and then to back away from him? This shit is weak dude. Sort of defeats the purpose of a bus. On August 19 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: Also, one of my initial town read on Darth based on his claiming roleblock is not justified. Scums can also claim roleblock, because there could be no roleblocker OR the there could be a town roleblocker. I got role blocked. I claimed. reading anything more into that than it is is fallacious. | ||
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On August 19 2012 21:35 thrawn2112 wrote: I was investigating his claim that he was unable to post because he went to a lan. And that expression would come from both town thrawn and scum thrawn, you're just reading it as coming from a scum thrawn because I think you're already of the mindset to not believe anything I have to say. I am not saying anything about the expression. I was commenting based on the fact that if my scum partner went AWOL last game I would likely be the one to notice first. Not really anything. | ||
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On August 19 2012 21:57 thrawn2112 wrote: ##Vote Ochrow If he is modkilled, my vote will probably go to yourharry I wanna restate this: The only reason why I am not confident in my vote is because we have heard so very little from these players. It's pretty worrying to me that jhuyt, solar, and gobalt have been lurking for pretty much all of day 2. (ochrow as well but he was banned) Yeha I agree 100 percent with this sentiment. | ||
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On August 20 2012 07:21 Obvious.660 wrote: Holy shit, I've been in the game for 7 hours and have 3 posts and am already getting called out for lurking. You guys are doing an incredible job at that policy shit. I'm just gonna get real with you for a minute, sons. The rest of the you seem to think that killing off the closest thing you have to a confirmed town member (Thrawn) is a good idea and are still holding what I can tell you was simply piss-poor town play from Ochrow against me, the vanilla manilla town member with no super powers. One town lynch today, one town lynch tomorrow, and scum are laughing all the way to the bank. + Show Spoiler [in which gk holds a grudge] + On August 20 2012 07:03 goodkarma wrote: @SolarSail: So, in other words, you're saying that Thrawn looks scummy by association with Obvious and YourHarry? I've already mentioned this before, but you should vote your strongest scum read. Voting because of association, when none of the suspects have actually flipped, can be dangerous. I've already described how this could cause bias, and it is one of the reasons for switching my vote. Ochrow just outright is a stronger scum read than Thrawn for me right now. I don't follow your logic when you say you won't switch your vote, when it seems you already have a stronger scum read on Ochrow/Obvious than on Thrawn. If your read is solely based off "association," then I would urge you to reconsider your vote. And regarding my vote switch, I'm not following a policy of "present your defense and I won't vote for you." But the fact that Ochrow, and now Obvious, have not presented a defense of any kind to the case points against him gives me a stronger scum read on him. His choice to afk from thread until after the vote tells me he's trying to buy enough time to survive today's lynch and make it to the next day, which is scum-motivated behavior. GK, your points against Obvious are exactly what? The only valid thing you said against me was that I disappeared from the thread for a while. You're so engrossed in your delusion that Ochrow was scum that you're transferring it to me and on the basis of what, exactly? I'd love to try to respond to those allegations but I'm not Ochrow so you present to me an impossible challenge bordering on telepathy. How can I know what Ochrow's long game was when I'm not allowed to contact him? There's no QT to refer to, I'm all by my lonesome here and I can sort of see why maybe his ban could have been on purpose since this game is full of delusional people. How about you all take a step back and reboot, have a reality check and maybe figure out why it is that the town is hell-bent on destroying itself and who the people behind it are. HEHE this is the Obvious I remember <3. However like your predecessor you are defending thrawn and have barely mentioned Your Harry. This is incredibly suspicious as, if you had read the thread and peoples cases against them I don;t see how you could state that Thrawn is the closest thing to confirmed town. Or not mention YH at all. | ||
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On August 20 2012 08:58 YourHarry wrote: But at this point, I can't risk getting lynched since i know i am town 100% Survival instincts are a mafia trait not a townie trait. | ||
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I have a town read on Z-boson and Goodkarma. They may be scum and I am less sure on Z-Boson. GK especially seems to have expressed very similar reads to my own, though for slightly different reasons. I am going to state that I am inclined to believe Obvious and Your Harry because the case on them was mainly associative and alot of the case required Thrawn to be scum. They have also shown an effort in posting and defending themselves and have contributed to the thread. Although their arguments are bad and look scummy/WIFOM based (Harry) this does not mean they are scum. WIth thrawn gone the scum motivation behind their actions becomes unclear, so I am leaning towards them probably being town. It is obvious now that scum are just sitting back letting the active townies argue and kill each other. Stutters whilst lurking was also in agreement to hold off on the thrawn lynch which was the position of myself and GK when it was not the prevailing sentiment and when it would have been far easier to sit on the bandwagon like others did. to summarise, currently I view Goodkarma, Z-boson, Stutters, Your Harry and Obvious.660 as probable town from most to least likely SO I think we need to look closely at the following. Golbat Jyhut Solar Sail | ||
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SO I think we need to look closely at the following. Golbat Jhuyt Solar Sail | ||
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On August 20 2012 19:12 goodkarma wrote: A much-belated EBWOP: I'm mostly in agreement with DarthPunk's suspect list, with one notable exception (Obvious/Ochrow). Obvious is actually contributing something though. and is not sheeping cases/lurking. @ everyone. we cannot afford to waste this night cycle. we potentially have 1 more day to nail these scums. I was never much a fan of lurker lynch policy but it is hurting us bad now. | ||
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On August 20 2012 19:39 goodkarma wrote: @Darthpunk: There is some meaningful discussion posted by Obvious on this page. But one post isn't enough for me to take him off my scum radar. And as far as lurkers go: Would you be willing to take the hardline stance of pressuring lurkers? And if they refuse to cooperate, lynching them? You may not like it. Honestly I don't either. But if you say, "Hey everyone. You should be ashamed of being inactive." There's no personal accountability in that message, and you can expect there will be no meaningful change in activity day 3. There are several lurkers right now, to the point where I strongly suspect we have inactive lurker scum in this game. The best way to get them, and any potential townie lurkers, active is to pressure them. The easiest way to pressure them is to vote them if they refuse to help us scumhunt. If you see other options, I'd be happy to hear them. But how I see it right now, I have no clear scum reads amongst the current active players, and amongst the lurkers is the only spot left to really look. Yeah I was already planning to do something similar. At this point if all the lurkers are town. Then they have handed scum the game regardless. | ||
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On August 21 2012 13:24 YourHarry wrote: Good point on scums not having time to respond to your latest post. But there were common suspicions between Golbat and Jhyut that were posted hours before deadline: Z-boson's suspect list went: me, Jhyut, Golbat Darth's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Solar GK's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Obvious Maybe WIFOM. But to me, I still can't get my head around scum Golbat lynching town Jhyut, who seemed to be scum Golbat's only way out. Regards to no lynching, the only caveat for choosing to lynch today rather than tomorrow is the medic save. But if we decide to go ahead with our lynch today, I think claiming today is a good idea. We NEED a scum lynch today. And everyone claiming would make that much easier. Sorry I am kind of busy and am not following the thread right now. but I agree with a mass claim. we are at the stage of the game where we need as much info as possible because we cannot afford a mistake. I feel really out of my depth here, scum are either afk winning or playing really well. | ||
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To be honest I am feeling pretty demoralised about this entire situation. This game is incredibly difficult with the amount of lurking/ inactivity that has gone on. Not to mention losing 5 townies in the first 2 cycles. I am not sure if lurkers are even the right place to look at this point. I am going to sound out my thoughts on the page and be transparent as possible. At this point denying information to the mafia is less important than revealing Information to the last 5 townies. I know you guys are reading this I just wish I knew who you were. I have a strong town read on Goodkarma, but even with him/her I am not sure. I can see GK being scum. and if so I both applaud you and say WTF?!?! to the rest of town for being so shit. Z-boson has appeared town like and active but has just sheeped cases and not been proactive in pushing them. Pretty much a neutral read. Your Harry has been mental all game. Impossible to make out his motivations he is bad town (which is his meta) but this allows him to hide beneath this if he actually was scum. I read through XXI and I thought he was scum in that game. I was wrong, but this at least gives me something to think on. Everyone was pushing the Obvious/ Your Harry/ Thrawn train. Too easy. Something was wrong. I had a lingering doubt in the back of my mind but I did not argue against the Thrawn lynch at all because he was so scummy in my eyes. At this point I have no clear reads and anyone could be scum which doesn't help at all. | ||
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Golbat did not post during the night cycle. and his last post was 2 days ago. will golbat be modkilled or replaced? | ||
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On August 21 2012 22:45 marvellosity wrote: No. He will be modkilled at the end of day 3 if he has not posted/voted. No more replacements at this stage. OK, thanks. | ||
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confused and demoralised. However I am back with a clear mind, and I realised this was a stupid idea. I am going to trust my reads and build my cases and catch those scum. | ||
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On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote: Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet. In no particular order: YourHarry Z-Boson Stutters Golbat At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not. What is your view on Solar? | ||
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On August 22 2012 11:37 Obvious.660 wrote: On the phone right now, just got a call, I'll take a second look after I'm done. Is he one of your suspects or are you confused as to why he didn't make my short list? I am about to post a case on him. would like your thoughts. | ||
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We all know the dramatic shift in his behaviour and the quality of his posting on day one. He was acting strangely and was called out day one after which his posting became highly erratic and panicked. The next day there was a SUDDEN AND SIGNIFICANT turn around in his posting behaviour. He says that his day one behaviour was intentional and that was generally accepted by the people in order to pursue cases on the more obvious suspects. (thrawn, shady, harry etc) and since that point has done ZERO SCUMHUNTING and FLOWN UNDER THE RADAR. He has only commented on the most popular candidates and only when they were the flavour of the moment. Day one he votes for shady after he is by far the most popular vote candidate. But his explanation is very weak and he brought nothing of substance to the table. On August 17 2012 01:53 Solarsail wrote: On Shady: I was never completely satisfied by his explanation of jumping on me second post to stimulate discussion, nor persisting with it. The encouragement of baseless voting is another strike there for me. None of his suspicions have had sufficient evidence for ##Vote Shady Sands Can't shake the feeling that Thrawn has set Shady up as his own worst enemy and Shady is just playing very badly to fall in. DarthPunk is my strongest Town read this far and he is saying the opposite. But I have had so many problems with Shady this game, and while Thrawn is not off my radar I can't ignore this. On August 17 2012 01:53 Solarsail wrote: On Shady: I was never completely satisfied by his explanation of jumping on me second post to stimulate discussion, nor persisting with it. The encouragement of baseless voting is another strike there for me. None of his suspicions have had sufficient evidence for ##Vote Shady Sands Can't shake the feeling that Thrawn has set Shady up as his own worst enemy and Shady is just playing very badly to fall in. DarthPunk is my strongest Town read this far and he is saying the opposite. But I have had so many problems with Shady this game, and while Thrawn is not off my radar I can't ignore this. He even expresses doubt over this vote, and the reasoning behind his doubt is far better than the justification behind his vote. He is taking the safe choice. Joining a bandwagon with little to no case. He has not participated in scum hunting at all day one. His filter mainly consists of small comments on the interplay between others, it looks as if he is a participant in the discussion but is not contributing. On August 17 2012 01:58 Solarsail wrote: Sorry I missed DP's new post. That is very strong. I would like to see Thrawn defend that. Now that DP's argument is there in full with evidence, the line "mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?" is really, really out of place. On August 17 2012 08:07 Solarsail wrote: Archrun didn't mention the possibility that they are both town and just got trapped fighting each other. Golbat your explanation better follow very, very quickly. Day 2 opens and he immediately sheeps the most popular lynch candidate. (thrawn) that myself and shady have made a case on. On August 18 2012 10:28 Solarsail wrote: The Archrun death completely validates gk's post. I was already wavering on Thrawn yesterday early on and Ochrow's most recent post (before GK even said anything) I'm less convinced on YourHarry since there is no direct link and I had a soft town read from yesterday, but there's two good candidates right there. Lol Thrawn your vigilante claim is ridiculous. Vigilantes do not reveal that they are vigilantes over such a trivial matter as defending themselves, as the role is so powerful that scum have no choice but to kill you immediately. ##Vote: Thrawn ##FoS: Ochrow No scum hunting. No participation or addition to the discussion. He is sheeping myself and GK with a short justification for his vote. On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote: My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little. I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch. The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention. Elaborates on his thrawn vote. Does not scum hunt and justifies his vote by sheeping GK. Note that despite really weak justification he states that: I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch. this is not a pro-town. Despite the large discussion on thrawn/ your harry throughout the day does not comment again.He has not added anything original yet to the thread. On August 20 2012 08:06 Solarsail wrote: gk, I want to make clear: my read on thrawn stands on its own. I am prepared to lynch Ochrow for being my strongest read but only if it goes through, because thrawn/YH/ochrow are so close in verbal support that if we have in fact made a mistake like one of the three isn't mafia then the mafia members we could easily see a switch close to deadline. When questioned by GK he then says his thrawn read 'stands on its own' despite adding nothing to the case and purely sheeping others opinions. More side comments, not scumhunting but seeming to participate. On August 20 2012 08:19 Solarsail wrote: You can move your vote with an even stronger case on someone else. I encourage you to do so because your initial vote against Thrawn wasn't with much evidence. Asking your harry, Who although scummy has provided far more analysis and justification for his positions is kind of a stretch but reinforces that he is trying to participate without actually finding scum His last vote. On August 21 2012 09:30 Solarsail wrote: We're not going to realistically win this game without three good mafia lynches. Being decisive is exactly what is needed, so we need a leader and gk has stepped up. If this devolves into eight lynch candidates we have poor odds of picking the right one even if our accusations of certain behaviours are correct. So it's really just a question of your read on gk. If you think he's town, vote for Golbat. If you think he's not, vote for GK. If GK and DP are mafia then wp because they've been nothing but active and helpful (and terribly wrong yesterday). I haven't done nearly enough independent work, and it's hurt me because I've been taken in by bad logic following others, but ultimately it's a lesson learned. I don't even think Golbat is the greatest lynch candidate ever because lurking is a often a null tell but I'm seeing that it's come down to the choice I said. I'd go with Obvious myself but I don't even trust any reads I have after D1 and D2. ##Vote: Golbat Sheeping GK on the popular choice once again. not actually scum hunting. Playing safe and flying under the radar. SOLAR SAIL IS SCUM AND MUST BE LYNCHED. | ||
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On August 22 2012 14:59 Obvious.660 wrote: Do I count as sheeping if I posted my case on him before you posted yours even though you asked? Semi-joking. Not sure what to make of the Golbat situation but he's voting for Solarsail as well. Hard to speculate as to why, best guess is that it's because it was the most recent case posted. If we lynch correctly today and he's not NK'd hopefully he participates tomorrow. No. Sorry I took so long to post. I am in the middle of a messy breakup right now and my Ex came over, so that kind of took precedence. I think it is pretty obvious that solar is scum from looking at his filter. Too careful. Always sheeping the popular lynch. never contributing to scum hunting. The nail in the coffin is that he had not been mentioned as a scum candidate since day 1 but if you look through his filter it is clear he is not contributing. As to Golbat sort of wish he had just got himself mod-killed, but i don't really want to lynch him yet. he could just be an inactive townie. | ||
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On August 22 2012 16:41 YourHarry wrote: Darth, while I agree that sheeping other cases and trying to get get by without getting noticed is scum and in this regard Solar is scummy, I have a much stronger scum read on GK. Please let me know what you think. I also would like to know what Obvious currently thinks about GK being scum. I don't think I will have much time to post tomorrow. But I will try to log in. Goodkarma is my strongest town read. I see the points that you make in your case and I can see where you are coming from but I believe you to be on the wrong track. I find it incredible that your top scum read is one of the most proactive townies in the game. also because I missed it ##vote: Solarsail I look forward to solar's defense. | ||
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On August 22 2012 21:15 goodkarma wrote: @DarthPunk: Have your other scum reads changed since you reassessed everyone's filters? And why is SolarSail stronger than your other scum reads? I would agree that SolarSail hasn't stuck his neck out at all. But this is MYLO, and from what I've seen there are also townies in this category. What about SolarSail, specifically, makes him a "best read" from this category? At this point I needed to alter my scum hunting from finding those that seems scummy due to logical inconsistency's or bad and confusing arguments, because it has gotten us nowhere so far. Scum this game seem to be blending in and Solarsail was the most flagrant example of this. He has also not been mentioned or involved much at all and has played very carefully since his early game behaviour which he came out and said was an act. It could be an act. or it could have been coaching from his scum buddies which caused him to dramatically alter his posting. Something else which caused some concern was this. On August 20 2012 09:31 Solarsail wrote: .............................. .............................. @self 1. Make your own reads, not those of others 2. Don't trust your own reads, ever 3. Wow you're a terrible player I mean just look at this post, first thing that is apparent is the apologetic nature of it and the fact that he states he is such a bad player. He was not under suspicion but it seems even with that being the case he is trying to make excuses for his play. He says to never trust his own reads, Yet he has not made any. He says not to sheep cases then sheeps the case of GK immediately afterwards. He is scum and needs to die. | ||
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On August 22 2012 22:28 goodkarma wrote: @DarthPunk: Also note that with three scum left and three on each of our candidates, there is at least one scum behind at least one of our candidates. So I feel it's very likely at this point that not both of us are right. So are you so certain that SolarSail is guilty that you could visualize YourHarry being innocent? I see scum motivation behind YourHarry's actions, but I'm having trouble seeing any behind Solar's. Being sheepish and lurky are definitely suspicious traits, but they're not inherantly scummy ones. Unless you truly believe all three scum are lurkers (which honestly might be possible at this point), I still see YourHarry as the better candidate. Add to that how suspicious I still am of Golbat and Obvious, and I'm skeptical about getting behind SolarSail right now. I think solar and harry are both scum. | ||
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On August 22 2012 22:41 goodkarma wrote: @DarthPunk: So you think scum is busing one of their own? Yes I think they are forced too at this point. I think that one of them is Bussing. Solarsail is scum and voting golbat. so I view him as town. I think obvious is town also as he was so quick to drop the Golbat lynch after looking into solar's filter. I think a scum obvious would have tried slightly harder to go for the easy mislynch. That leaves either Stutters or Z-boson as scum bussing YH. | ||
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On August 22 2012 02:51 Z-BosoN wrote: @DarthPunk Wait, what??? Like you said yourself, please read through the filters. After my heavy attack on thrawn, actually being the first one to put up a formal and well explained case against him (with the archrun bit), and, as far as I recall, doing the same with YourHarry? Explaining while ShadySands shouldn't be regarded with THAT much suspicion and why Jhuyt should have deserved the day one lynch? After sticking with thrawn after you and goodkarma pointed your pitchforks at different directions? After I continued my case against YH even after you, for some reason, ignored all the "scumslips" and "hinting at external information" against YH once thrawn was innocent? And ALL of this after me taking hours reading everything and trying to make my posts as reasonable as possible, giving a detailed explanation regarding all of my decisions? You will say that I am sheeping? That's insulting. Please do like you said you would and read everyone's filters. I will do the same on the remaining people I have not yet attacked. Guys, we have to read and reread and read yet again EVERYTHING. The more we read, the less we have to guess and the better we can communicate with each other to find these scums That goes to everybody else, because right now it's only half the people discussing the most important read we have to make. This will basically guarantee our loss if there is not more contribution... | ||
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On August 22 2012 22:47 goodkarma wrote: Nvm I guess it would make sense for them to "blend in" with the votes if two correct scum candidates were mentioned, as otherwise they would be easily spotted. I still think it's unlikely we're both right, but I acknowledge it as being possible. But if you feel both are scum how can your read on Solar be stronger when YourHarry clearly is playing with scum motivation in mind, and by nature of being a lurking sheep scum motivation can't be determined with Solar? So... You can see no scum motivation for not making any reads? for blending in with the majority? really? I urge you to read through his filter carefully and share your thoughts? | ||
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On August 22 2012 23:20 goodkarma wrote: I will admit the pieces fit together relatively well, but the one problem I have with it is that it all assumes that Golbat is town. Which given how incredibly lurky he is is impossible to really infer outside of a flip... You warned Obvious ahead of time that you were making a case on SolarSail, so it would have been easy for Obvious to guess that SolarSail was the guy you planned on voting for. Further, from a scum perspective, making a case on a guy like SolarSail (super-sheeping lurker) is super-easy. So while it's great he took the initiative to put forward his own reads, I'm not ready to believe he's town. But we both agree that YourHarry is scum, so I'm wondering why it is we can't all vote for him today? YourHarry has had a lot to say about others, so upon flipping red there's definitely plenty of information to sift through that can be used to find the other two scum. But until then, "association-based" reads are going to be pretty unreliable. And if you look at SolarSail, who you advocate lynching today, his flip really doesn't provide any useful info, as all he's been doing is sheeping. We are not lynching for information we are lynching scum. My read on Solar is not associative at all. Can you please read Solars filter and give me your thoughts on him. Do you believe Solar to be scum or town? | ||
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On August 22 2012 23:24 goodkarma wrote: @DarthPunk: Allow me to elaborate a little: I see both possible town and scum motivation behind blending in like that. It's either a timid first-time townie that doesn't trust himself, or: A conservative scum afraid of getting caught. The difference in my reads between SolarSail and YourHarry is for YourHarry there is no plausible townie motivation for some of his play. A timid first time towny would not make the play that almost got him lynched during the first day. Which to my mind is not adequately explained by "trying to stimulate discussion'. Since then he has sheeped and not contributed at all whilst seeming to do so. He is also not presenting a defense which is not doing him any favours | ||
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##Vote: Your Harry | ||
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##unvote ##Vote: Your Harry | ||
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On August 23 2012 08:27 Z-BosoN wrote: Obvious and DP, it also depends ALOT on you both!! Please be present and send your opinion before the deadline! Who did you want to switch to? Solar? I think trying to switch now just creates confusion and room for error. maybe you should have decided this 10 hours ago when my vote was still on solar. | ||
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On August 23 2012 08:53 Z-BosoN wrote: EBWOP: sniped YourHarry is an excellent case. I just think right now SolarSail's was better. Just pray now. @DarthPunk I was going over other people's cases. Didn't think I'd find Solar to be a serious candidate. Yeah, I agree. but gk didn't budge. and i still think YH is scum. anyway let us pray. In nomino partri et fili et spiritus sancti. (i am agnostic not pushing religion lol) | ||
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On August 23 2012 09:24 Solarsail wrote: After you've finished going through the filters let me know if I've got to defend myself against anything, because tomorrow's gonna come down to me vs Obvious and I'd much rather be going through filters trying to find a third option, especially if Golbat somehow flips town and throws everything off. My play today was weak sheeping because I believed we had pretty much lost. I wasn't trying to put together a case of my own because it came down to whether goodkarma was right or not. Today I will be more active and more independent. Read my case against you. You better believe I am coming for you son. | ||
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On August 22 2012 22:47 DarthPunk wrote: Yes I think they are forced too at this point. I think that one of them is Bussing. Solarsail is scum and voting golbat. so I view him as town. I think obvious is town also as he was so quick to drop the Golbat lynch after looking into solar's filter. I think a scum obvious would have tried slightly harder to go for the easy mislynch. That leaves either Stutters or Z-boson as scum bussing YH. This scenario seems even more Likely after both Z-boson and Solar tried those vote switching shenanigans at the last minute trying to shift away from the your harry lynch. @Obvious and Goodkarma. My top scum reads at this point are: Z-Boson and Solarsail | ||
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It is also strange that your harry only voted for Solarsail at the very last minute when it was not going to effect the outcome and it was half hearted at best. This is in contrast to his previous behaviour when on both day one and two he aggressively pursued a mislynch on another leading candidate. I feel like Solar is scum so the counter wagon on him was not really an option. Otherwise wouldn't scum have expended more effort in securing his lynch? I think scum tried to form a wagon on GK. Z- Boson placed a FoS on him and YH voted for him. Also solar and Z- boson both happen to be the people pushing for a vote swap last minute which when combined with the other suspicions against them fits together nicely. Just my current thoughts. | ||
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On August 23 2012 19:14 Z-BosoN wrote: @gk and dp I noticed it looked suspicious, me trying to change vote at the last minute, but I did so because I did quite a bit of thinking and thought I had enough reason as to why Solar Sail would be a better candidate then YourHarry. The timing really looks suspicious, because I was busy doing other things and my focus was not on Solar when it should have been. As soon as I decided that Solar was a better candidate, I tried doing a switch, when we still had around an hour to go. I have school in a couple of minutes, but when I get back, I'll explain in detail as to why I think Solar was a better candidate than YourHarry and still is a strong one. Also, what exactly is so incriminating me trying to vote-switch at the very end? Now that YH is guilty, it doesn't look nice, but how was I supposed to know? I had a hunch, had my reasons, and I followed them as best I could, because I honestly thought we were going to lose. What are your reasons? having an unexplained 'Hunch' is the justification your harry used constantly. The vote switch at the end was clearly anti town even before harry flipped. It looks supremely suspicious now. | ||
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Here are my current reads. GK. <3 Stutters. His day 2 play with YH has me leaning town with him. Obvious: not convinced either way. Golbat. Meh, he and YH went at each other pretty hard during day 2 and if he is sick that would explain his lurking. I don't think we should be lynching lurkers. To be honest. I am almost certain he is town. Your harry has tried to get a lynch on him several times. and has cast suspicion on him since day one. He and your harry went at each other hard day 2, and he was being set up for a lynch night 3 seems to me that he is just super inactive townie. Z- Boson: SCUM Solar: SCUM At this point in my mind it comes down to two of either Z- Boson Solarsail Obvious. With a heavy lean towards the first two | ||
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On August 24 2012 08:03 Z-BosoN wrote: @DarthPunk So, according to you, everyone should mindlessly base themselves on goodkarma? I don't think that's good for the town. What's good for the town is making discussions and reaching thought-out conclusions. At the end, if no compromise is made, THEN we make decisions based on gk. Am I wrong here? I don't think I ever said that? Care to identify the post in which I made such a claim? I have not sheeped GK. I had a scum read on Your Harry since day one. I disagree with GK on his read on golbat and stated that. GK disagrees with me on Solar and has stated that. I was the first to cast suspicion on you and if others then do the same then that is their prerogative. I don't see what town purpose you have for perpetuating this idea. | ||
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On August 24 2012 08:03 Solarsail wrote: You're correct, that would be biased deduction. But that's not what happened. The arguments of the two posts against you have been: Goodkarma: "Z-Boson's scummy behavior is related to the last minute vote switch request" Obvious: "The guy who has been laying into YH the entire game has a change of heart just before the deadline." Those aren't "A scum Boson would be doing X". Those are, "Boson's behaviour here and here is scummy". Please give town motivations for the listed behaviour. Yeah dude, this is completely accurate. Just because your defense is WIFOM does not mean that the case against you is. this is really suspicious. | ||
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On August 24 2012 08:18 Z-BosoN wrote: You didn't use the word mindlessly, but one can interpret this from: The town purpose? Stimulate discussion. Force people to make their own reads. A blind band wagon will ultimately succeed based only on the choice of the leader's target... The town purpose is that the eggs choose what basket they should jump into, and not have one egg choose it for them. That way it is easier to prove that I'm innocent if I'm innocent, and harder to prove that if I'm scum. I actually said IF I DIE. Please follow GK town! thanks for blatantly mis-quoting me. | ||
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On August 24 2012 08:19 Z-BosoN wrote: @Darthpunk Stop saying "this is suspicious", and say why you think it is. Explain to me the difference. Again, It is obvious. but using WIFOM to defend yourself and then because your defense is WIFOM dismissing the case against you as WIFOM is suspicious, as you are trying to squirm out of a situation without an invalid, and frankly ridiculous argument. Your town motivation that you have provided directly contradicts your earlier actions. You believed that Solar was a far stronger case but provided zero evidence at the time. You have made cases against YH all game and yet tried to switch the vote from him at the last minute. This is with no case against solar and no contribution to the cases others had made against him. The last minute push by both yourself and Your Harry reek of WIFOM bombs. and therefore my read will not use the associative information on solar gained at the end of day 3. One question would ask SOLAR? You tried to alter the vote at the last minute whilst you were the other leading candidate. Who would you have voted for and why? if we had decided to not vote for YH. | ||
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On August 24 2012 08:56 Z-BosoN wrote: If for some reason I die, which I think is unlikely, I actually think DP is the third mafia. Please read my exchanges with him carefully. GL TOWN! Care to elaborate on this. or, you know, actually post a case along with your accusation? I find it extremely weird as to why there was no night kill. we know we have a town roleblocker so I am assuming it was a role block. If that is the case. Whoever you roleblocked is confirmed scum. @GK can I ask the reason behind asking for Z- Boson to be roleblocked? and also why you are so sure that Golbat is scum? | ||
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And we are no longer at MYLO. I was so certain we were going to lose and now I don't see how we can | ||
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I will get to your case on me shortly but right now ##Vote: Z -Boson | ||
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In response to the case against me. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: I've been doing my homework and look at what I've come up on DarthPunk. He and goodkarma have been trading hugs ever since the beggining of the game Not entirely true, but I have had a strong town read on Goodkarma from pretty early on. This is largely due to the fact that goodkarma's position though made independently, strongly mirrored my own. I fail to see how this is scummy and I certainly have not just sheeped GK this game. I made my own reads and cases and they happened to match up. I have also not completely mirrored Goodkarmas position or taken everything he said at face value. However, I do believe him to be town. And two townies working together at MYLO was the best course of action. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: DarthPunk ignores what's convenient for him Suddenly me and Harry have become much more suspicious on his eyes because we became suspicious of goodkarma? Did he even bother responding to mine or YourHarry's posts? Also, note how he quotes my post and doesn't address it. It feels a lot more like an instant reaction , as if he read my post, didn't like it, immediately quoted it and made weak arguments, basically stating that I've . Of course, he does this without being afraid because he doesn't feel like he is a target. Your post contained the over reaction to me saying you were neutral at that point in time, I had not yet called you a scum but your reaction to not viewing you as town was what caused me to initially become suspicious of you. I do not ignore things that are inconvenient. It seems to me your are attempting to attack my credibility just as you and your harry tried with GK. What is the town motivation for attacking BOTH of the most established townies? On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: What's even more hilarious about this is his next argument: I haven't been attacking SolarSail. Seriously guys, go to his filter and look at how many times he's addressed SolarSail since August 15th. Ok, you probably found, once in august 17th, once in 18th, once in 19th, and, from 22nd forward, a TON. And, in these days (17th,18th,19th) he didn't attack SolarSail ONCE. So how is it that he can go ahead and say that I've been ignoring Solar ever since day 1, since he has been also doing the same thing? This may cause me to be a hypocrite but that does not make me scum. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: He can't. He's not worried about that. He thinks his word is now law and in his mind he doesn't need to bother with such details, and can go spreading them like wildfire. And WHEN was I a bit too defensive when you accused SolarSail of being town? I'm not even going to search for this, so please, enlighten me. Also, make sure and see if I did so without reason or without an explanation. I don;t know what you are talking about here. Could you please quote the post you are referencing and I will get back to you. As to I think my word is law? You sound like a scum panicked by the fact that two townies Myself and goodkarma are working together and you are now trying to discredit us as much as possible. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: He's dodgy with his responses and says: "this seems very suspicious" multiple times, without explaining, always making SURE that he is sheeping goodkarma. This is blatantly false. I have not just sheeped Goodkarma. I have made my own reads but I have also worked with GK for the good of the town. This is hardly anti town behaviour. I apologise if I have just assumed that it was obvious why certain things was suspicious However I have alwaysed clarified when questioned. It was pretty obvious to be honest. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: MAJOR scumslip by DarthPunk [spoiler] Guys, read their last conversation, before they both went to sleep. Doesn't it bring up a lot of red flags? WHY IN THE WORLD would scum feel forced to bus one of their own? If scum can get a misslynch, they win, that easily. If he feels that way, why didn't he bother explaining it?. Because he finds no reason to. He feels comfortable that he and goodkarma are the "untouchables" and can go around making people believe what he wants. And this, as mafia, is exactly what he is thinking right now. He feels they can't get a misslynch train going on Solar with someone obviously scummy such as YourHarry, so they just go with bussing their scum friend, YourHarry. Most likely, they will focus on Solar next, granted his easyness to target. You are coming apart at the seams. Ignoring the first WIFOM argument you make. You are saying here that I was trying to bus your harry in order to facilitate a mislynch on Solar? except at the conclusion of this post you say you roleblocked Solar and prevented the NK. So this Your entire argument relies on Town Solar whom in this very post oyu say is scum. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: Please elaborate and quote the post in which this occured.1) He made up the argument that I was quick to defend SolarSail, which is UNTRUE. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: 2) He invented that I didn't give reason as to why I chose SolarSail over him. Once again, Please elaborate and quote the post in which this occured. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: 3) He stated that it was me and YourHarry who did the last minute push, when YH had nothing on it. Your Harry voted solar at the last minute. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: 4) He AGREED WITH ALL THE BLUES CLAIMING. When he saw that this was a bad idea, he immediately retracted. Saying he was "emotionally compromised", when it was JHuyt who had just been killed, which is an actual help for us. What kind of crap is this, and why does it go unnoted? This is probably the strongest point against me, all I can say is that I thought we needed all the blues to claim in order to have the best chance of avoiding a mislynch. On reflection I decided it would be best for the blues to claim at their discretion as they had more info then I did on their circumstances. On August 24 2012 10:00 Z-BosoN wrote: I noted this ever since you began to idolize him, since day 1 or 2. I also noted that he was roleblocked twice, and that must mean that your are a [blue]JailKeeper[blue]. I've suspected this for a long time, given your affection of him, and thus, I did not KILL YOU. Why would I not do that? So I could use that right now as an argument? How is this relevant at all to the case against me? I find it difficult to believe that YH did not RB me on consecutive nights due to me calling him out day one. Regardless this is not relevant. | ||
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On August 24 2012 10:34 Z-BosoN wrote: As expected, you would be the first to answer this. Let's learn to count first. YourHarry, Obvious, and You. That requires one jailkeeper and two roleblockers. Unless you wish to claim roleblocker as well, lol. goodkarma jailed you. I roleblocked YourHarry. YourHarry roleblocked Obvious. Three. Massive slip. If you RB'd harry his RB would not have gone through. Nice try SCUM | ||
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On August 24 2012 11:01 DarthPunk wrote: Massive slip. If you RB'd harry his RB would not have gone through. Nice try SCUM Never mind, I just read about roleblockers in the OP and all recipients of a roleblock will be notified. I retract this. | ||
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On August 24 2012 11:12 Stutters695 wrote: If anyone else was roleblocked now is the time to claim. And if there is a counter claim I would like to hear it. | ||
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A roleblock from night 1 I was roleblocked, No other claims, Z-B didn't roleblock. We are minus 1 RB claim. we are missing nothing from night 2 I was roleblocked, Obvious was roleblocked (Why does Z- B state this was a roleblock from Your Harry? when the more likely scenario is that I was Roleblocked by Harry.) And Z- B roleblocked YH. 2 roleblock claims from night 3. Solar has not claimed RB and we are still missing the other roleblock. | ||
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On August 24 2012 12:13 Solarsail wrote: I was not informed of any roleblock last night. Thus Z-Boson is lying and I am forced to ##Vote Z-BosoN Excellent Now If Z- boson flips roleblocker we auto lynch Solarsail. | ||
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On August 24 2012 12:33 goodkarma wrote: We absolutely need to hear from SolarSail now, as SolarSail can confirm or deny being RB'ed today... @Z-Boson: This makes zero sense. Feel free to ask host in-thread, but my understanding is this: If one role-blocker role-blocks another role-blocker that role-blocker's role-block doesn't happen. So in this case if you did role-block YourHarry, YourHarry couldn't have role-blocked Obvious. Which means there's a third role-blocker to make this believable. But there's also DarthPunk being role-blocked, which means there's actually a fourth role-blocker... In a mafia game of this size, I find it very hard to believe there's four role-blockers. So at this point I would say it's more likely either you or Obvious is lying... I look forward to your defense, but I'm not really buying it. Also, did you see what I wrote against you just before the start of today? I would highly recommend you take some time to defend yourself against what I wrote there. I thought that way about the roleblocks also. However in the OP it says that All roleblocks will result in the target being notified. I suppose we need some resolution in to how Roleblocks are handled this game. How are multiple roleblocks resolved, Particularly in the following scenario: Will Roleblocker A roleblocking Roleblocker B prevent Rolebocker B's roleblock of Player C? | ||
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On August 24 2012 20:54 marvellosity wrote: Uh, never came across the situation. Will have to investigate and get back to you So Marv has not come across the situation yet this is the exact situation that Z- Boson is claiming. | ||
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On August 24 2012 21:00 marvellosity wrote: That's more of a reflection that I haven't hosted very much, don't read anything into it It's a bit hard not too when this exact situation has supposedly occurred 24 hours ago. But I understand you do not wish to influence the game and I apologise if I put you in that position. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: Golbat | ||
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On August 25 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote: @DarthPunk: I wouldn't just focus at Golbat's filter. Focus on his interactions with YourHarry, as I feel it's pretty telling. YourHarry focuses a lot on Golbat, especially given how little he was contributing. And then goes on to soft defend him on Day 3. There are some pretty strong scum tells there if you look for them. Add to that that he just voted for himself, saying GL town. Let's think about this for a second: I would argue that town is in a very strong position right now. If he was town, why would he vote for himself? He would just be reducing his winning chances, which are strong at this point. He could have chosen to just vote anyone without explanation, and that would have been consistent with his most recent play. Instead, he chose to vote for himself. This is more consistent with a demoralized scum giving up than with a lazy townie. Golbat has become as lazy as you can get, popping up to vote without explanation to avoid a modkill. He could have effortlessly kept this up as town, but instead has decided to off himself. Golbat is scum. Everything fits. You can call him a lurker, but YourHarry's interactions with him and reluctance to vote him after bussing him make sense from a scum perspective, and don't make sense from a town perspective. His vote for himself is the same way. Another thought to keep in mind: The NK didn't go through, so it's safe to say we have at least one town roleblocker at this point. I highly doubt that Z-Boson is roleblocker, but if he actually is we would be loosing a valuable power role. I'm willing to lynch him next day cycle in the hopes that some other power role can confirm or deny that he is scum tomorrow. I agree with you. I think that is pretty clear that the last scum are Golbat and Z-boson/Solar whichever is lying. | ||
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On August 25 2012 10:36 Obvious.660 wrote: The fact that the NK didn't go through is not solid evidence that there was a successful roleblock. It could have also been withheld to make us believe that a roleblock was successful. False sense of security. Just a thought. Scum would have to be crazy to withhold a NK at MYLO. I think it was a roleblock and so one of us has a confirmed scum off that roleblock. | ||
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On August 25 2012 11:19 Keirathi wrote: Day 4 Vote count: Z-BosoN (2): Golbat (3): Golbat, goodkarma, DarthPunk Not Voting: Z-BosoN, Stutters695 Golbat currently set to be lynched. Just under 22 hours until the deadline. As an aside, I just found out that I need to go to the hospital at 7am in the morning to sit with my grandpa. That means I'll be able to check the thread from my phone and answer questions, but vote counts will kind of be a pain, and I think marv is going out of town for the weekend. Can some of you guys step up and keep the vote counts accurate for me? I should be home in time to do the flavor tomorrow, but it would be a big help to me if you guys could at least keep an unofficial vote tally running every couple of hours and I'll just double check it whenever I get home. <3 I can help keep track if you want. | ||
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<3 | ||
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On August 25 2012 16:07 Obvious.660 wrote: The explanation that Golbat is scum is guesswork. The explanation that Z-Boson is scum is that no NK occured. If you think it's unlikely that scum would withhold the NK, then Z-Boson is guaranteed scum. Why take the risk? We lynch scum here. There is no risk. I am 90% sure Golbat is scum. | ||
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On August 25 2012 17:28 Obvious.660 wrote: It's also clear that Golbat isn't interested in playing. He can extend us the courtesy of yielding to a town victory once his scum partner is lynched without compromising his team's prime directive. If the remaining team is Z-Boson/Golbat and Z-Boson is dead, Golbat can surrender and we win. Why not lynch the scum? We Know that Z-boson is scum but we also know that golbat is. Does it really matter? If GK wants to lynch Golbat first then there is no point dividing the town with a trivial matter of which of the almost guaranteed scum goes first. | ||
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On August 25 2012 17:52 Obvious.660 wrote: That's fine I guess. You let him decide for you. I'll decide for me. I don't see what your problem with working together with goodkarma is. This game is not about personal achievement. We have a shared win condition and if the best thing for town is to work together (which it is) to ensure our victory. I am not blindly sheeping goodkarma either. I have my own reasons for voting for golbat and I think it is obvious he is scum. If you have doubts read the last ~ 2 pages of GK filter and Golbats filter. There are some clues there that cement his guilt in my mind. It is important to be united in our vote. This will guarantee victory, by all means argue your points, but in the end we are stronger united. | ||
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On August 26 2012 07:08 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry guys I reformatted my laptop for GW2 and had some driver issues. I'd like to second Z-Boson's post here: We should either be lynching Z-Boson or Solarsail today without question. Currently its a 5/2 split. If we go after Golbat and he isn't scum for some reason unless there is no night kill again we put ourselves back into LYLO at 3/2 where every town has to hit the same scum or its GG. If we lynch Solarsail or Z-Boson and we hit the wrong one, we still end up at LYLO 3/2 but we have essentially confirmed a scum (town has 0 reason to lie about being roleblocked or roleblocking in the circumstances it happened in). We simply lynch the other person next day and at least salvage it to 2/1 pretty easily. Note: everything from here on is WIFOM on trying to reason who to lynch, but it should be clear that one of them has to die. So in my mind it becomes a question of if we should believe Z-Boson or Solarsail. Looking back at the facts we have these roleblocks claimed by the people who got blocked: N1: DarthPunk N2: Obvious, Darthpunk (Z-Boson claims he RB'd YH) N3: None (Z-Boson claims he RB'd Solar, solar denies) It's pretty safe to assume DarthPunk is telling the truth. He's had a pretty strong town presence all game and would be a fairly good RB target. So that leaves 1 unexplained RB N2 and N3. If Obvious is telling the truth that backs Solar claiming Z-Boson is lying about his RBs and he's scum. If he's not it means both Solar and Obvious are lying and its hard to believe the scums would commit themselves together on something that's easily verifiable. Of course the converse is if Z-Boson is telling the truth we lynch our RB in exchange for a gauranteed scum kill next round. I'm going to reread their filters now to figure out who I think we should lynch but I encourage everyone to consider one of those two as our target today. and if golbat is scum that is still a perfectly legitimate scenario. Several of us are convinced that he is scum, and if he is when he flips red we will look at Z-Boson and solar. | ||
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I am fairly certain of a Z-BOSON and GOLBAT scum team. | ||
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On August 26 2012 07:49 Stutters695 wrote: You're missing the point though. If Golbat isn't scum (its not a 100% certainty) we're putting ourselves in a 50/50 shot to win or lose on a MYLO the next day instead of having a near 100% chance to take it down to 1 scum by the next lynch. Why would YH distance himself from Golbat by accusing him instead of trying to do something similar with the third scum who isn't lurking and asking to get poilcy lynched like Golbat is. It doesn't make sense at all. We should have policy lynched him d1 or d2 yes but having more info on more people before a LYLO or MYLO is only beneficial. Lynching Golbat we get nothing unless he flips red and if he doesn't we've just wasted a lynch and put ourselves against the chopping block. except we have another night and potentially another roleblock to determine who of solar/Z-Boson is scum. The negative scenario you are espousing is reliant on the idea that golbat will flip green. I believe that is unlikely and therefore am not as worried as you are to that outcome. Let me put it another way. If we mislynch in order to get Solar/Z-boson is Golbat going to be an asset or liability at Endgame? Let me answer this for you. Town Golbat would be a huge liability. Scum Golbat would be a huge liability. There is no reason not to vote for golbat now. even if he is town it is better for us for him to be out of the equation than debating his lynch on day six. | ||
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GG Golbat. WP town. We got this. <3 | ||
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FoS Solarsail | ||
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On August 26 2012 10:24 Solarsail wrote: 1. If there is absolutely no way that Z-Boson could have roleblocked me as a night action without me recieving notification about it, he is definitely lying and hence definitely scum. 2. Thus either I or him are scum 3. I am prepared to be lynched in order to implicate Z-Boson and will self-vote to do so if necessary. If anyone knows of a way (I would be not have been informed) AND (Z-boson is not lying) please inform me as that is essential to my plan. No. It is impossible. Either you or Z-Boson is lying. And here is what I propose. If we have a roleblocker or jailkeeper. RB Z - BOSON if their is no NK we lynch Z-Boson if their is we lynch Solar. | ||
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On August 26 2012 16:10 goodkarma wrote: And btw, the call to role-block Z-Boson.: I deliberately jailed Golbat instead after saying that . I felt pretty clever at that moment . Meta rock-paper-scissors lol. Yeah I totally saw this. I was almost going to say something about it to obvious when he didn't want to lynch golbat. But I thought better of it. If you read my coaching thread I had a Solar, Z-boson, Your Harry team before YH flipped. But I got a red check on Golbat last night. <3 | ||
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Highly speculative WIFOM point 1) My understanding is that neither the target nor myself is notified of a roleblock. So after night one when he claimed RB I thought it was mafia's doing. However, after night 2 he also claimed RB. As I understand it, this is only his second game, so it is entirely possible that he hasn't carefully read the differences in how RB-ing works and is in fact a blue. More specifically, a cop that isn't getting his night checks returned to him. This is highly speculative, and I feel DarthPunk is an intelligent player, and would have a good enough grasp on game mechanics to only claim RB if it was clearly from a RB-er. Honestly, I'm not exactly sure why I bring this up as I feel this is highly unlikely. From GK coaching QT. It seems as if because my Night action was blocked I got a role-block notification. The exact words were 'You were roleblocked' | ||
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On August 26 2012 18:27 goodkarma wrote: Yeah... The wording on my role PM confused me a bit. I spent half the game thinking my jail target wasn't notified of being role-blocked lol. <3 Thanks GK by the way. You carried us big time. HAHA. | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10819 Posts
On August 26 2012 18:33 Obvious.660 wrote: Okay my fellow players. Post-game question for you who were suspicious of Ochrow and wanted me to explain his play. Now that we have no pretenses, what kinds of things were you looking for? I honestly, laden with the curse of knowing his role, read it all as bad town (quite clearly I was almost as bad as him at the role). I'd love to sub in again, but what kinds of things specifically were you looking for? Was it just willingness to analyze his filter and figure it out for you? I certainly didn't feel like that would do much good, since I wasn't the one interacting with him. Any input from those questioning me would be appreciated, I want to try this social experiment again sometime. I thought it was pretty clear you were town to be honest and the way you went about not trying to prove yourself but actually participate was good. I think we all could have been more active (apart from GK) but otherwise I felt that you were town. This also could have been to do with the fact that after the Thrawn flip. I realised how retarded associative cases could be and the main case against Ochrow was associative. The other aspect of the case against you was that Ochrow and Thrawn shared a QT. That was invalid as soon as thrawn flipped green and I am glad GK dropped the case gainst you in the end. | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10819 Posts
On August 26 2012 18:35 Stutters695 wrote: @GK & DP Well played, sorry for arguing with you so much towards the end. Clearly I need to work on recognizing blue roles because at most I had one of you as a JK. From a noob VT perspective lynching Golbat did seem like a shitty decision without the last RB coming in to verify his lynches. Rum and hindsight give me 20/20 so in retrospect I should have realized that given how adamant you guys were and my town read on you that you probably knew something I didn't instead of trying to come up with ways that you could be wrong. After the Thrawn mislynch though I was scared you guys were leading the town into another Thrawn type lynch where a "feeling" was going to trump getting the maximum amount of information for town. I feel like I should have argued for a YH lynch much stronger on D2 instead of just saying "hey, here's why lynching Thrawn is bad. Brb you guys decide." That was definitely a mistake. Except we both voted against thrawns lynch in the end. Give us credit where it is due. And to be honest even though I read in the QT that my argument against thrawn was drivel (lol <3) he did seem scummy as hell by association with YH day one and night one. But in the end we did not vote for him and I even voted for Harry so I think it should have been obvious that we both had the best interests of town at heart. That being said, after thrawn flipped town when I was so sure he was scum my confidence in my own reads plummeted and I was sure we had lost. Thanks to BH <3 <3 <3 and GK <3 <3 <3 they pulled me through when I was sure all hope was lost. | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10819 Posts
On August 27 2012 16:36 thrawn2112 wrote: I didn't know why you guys wouldn't believe my vig claim.... a lot of the case against me was because of how I was pointing at archrun the whole game... yet you thought me being vig and shooting archrun was unreasonable. there was also the possibilty of an sk but that's something you could have figured out by waiting You had no breadcrumbs, You seemed scummy as hell, your claim was weak in that it was not clear and the Archun flip made you look really bad. It was of my opinion that your claim was a desperate scum looking to hide after the real vig had shot archun. And you clai was so bad that the real vig did not see the point in counter claiming and was instead being vocal about you being lynched. At the end I was worried that there had been no counterclaim and that you may have been telling the truth and thus I went for YH instead. | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10819 Posts
On August 27 2012 17:44 thrawn2112 wrote: i considered breadcrumbing and even pm'd marv asking if it was allowed but for some reason i did not follow through. oh well first game... what ya gonna do If you are ever going to claim you should leave some breadcrumbs or at least say that you shot Archun 1 min before the day post. I didn't leave any breadcrumbs either though. but I was never going to claim cop. This might have been a mistake in hindsight. But even when I was being retarded and wanted a mass claim I was just gonna claim VT. | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10819 Posts
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DarthPunk
Australia10819 Posts
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