On September 19 2012 22:39 marvellosity wrote:Alright, I'm not sure how to construct this post, but here are my thoughts on some stuff in the game:
Firstly, in response to Mementoss re: what I said about Hiro (probably gonna duplicate this as my post goes on, but meh):
On September 19 2012 21:44 Mementoss wrote:I feel like the main part of the marv case is based on this post:
On September 19 2012 01:35 marvellosity wrote:On September 19 2012 01:33 prplhz wrote:On September 19 2012 01:32 marvellosity wrote:
why do GK and Palmar look town to you, then?
Well, goodkarma looks town because he was putting effort into his posts and because he was pushing the right agendas and because he replaced out (sorry, but town replaces out 10 times more than scum). Palmar is looking interested in this game and that's good enough for me for now. You will agree with me that HiroPro's case is not exactly overly convincing.
No, it's not convincing, but I found his point about throwing a bunch of new candidates into an already divided town pretty decent. I disagree on GK for the reason I outlined earlier.
I can see marvs logic behind it, but I think he just worded it in a way that seems really scummy.
This is what I thought about it:
On September 19 2012 21:03 marvellosity wrote:
I don't care if you/people thought I was weird for liking Hiro's Palmar point; to me it was a perspective that I hadn't thought of at all and so it was interesting. Additionally Hiro's points on Hapa's contradictions were strong. Listening to contributions from a day 1 scumread who was mainly a scumread for not contributing is not scummy behaviour. I'm not sure if it's enough from austin[sic] to make me not want to lynch him, but at the moment I'm leaning towards austin. He's been very absent through critical discussions when I know he could have been active, and that's scummy play.
Leading on from this, I'm a little suspicious of
Hapahauli. Partly because I know what he's capable of when I saw him dominate town as scum in one of his newbie games. There are two reasons:
Firstly, how he questioned me on listening to Hiro. I'm well aware that a lot of you disagreed with me finding Hiro's point on Palmar interesting, but I don't understand the thought train of not listening to a player just because you're voting for them, especially on Day 1.
On September 19 2012 02:25 Hapahauli wrote:@ MarvRegarding this:
On September 19 2012 01:35 marvellosity wrote:On September 19 2012 01:33 prplhz wrote:On September 19 2012 01:32 marvellosity wrote:
why do GK and Palmar look town to you, then?
Well, goodkarma looks town because he was putting effort into his posts and because he was pushing the right agendas and because he replaced out (sorry, but town replaces out 10 times more than scum). Palmar is looking interested in this game and that's good enough for me for now. You will agree with me that HiroPro's case is not exactly overly convincing.
No, it's not convincing, but I found his point about throwing a bunch of new candidates into an already divided town pretty decent. I disagree on GK for the reason I outlined earlier.
Why do you find Hiro's point compelling if you think he's mafia? You had your vote firmly on him at this point, and I don't understand why you'd be all of a sudden so willing to listen to, what appears to me as a weak observation about Palmar?
On September 19 2012 05:24 Hapahauli wrote:On September 19 2012 04:39 marvellosity wrote:
Ange, dear, what do you make of Hapa's point in the first place?
Like, Hapa is a clever fellow. The line of reasoning he proposed - "you think he's scum therefore why would you consider what he has to say" seems really off to me. Not quite as off as prplhz agreeing with it mind, but off nonetheless.
How is it off?
It can be scummy in a certain context, and your explanation makes sense enough.
It can be scummy in a certain context? What does that even mean? We only have one context here, and it's a Day 1 read for not contributing starting to contribute something I hadn't thought of. Don't know what context he was thinking of, or what answer he was possibly expecting from me.
Secondly, and with greater weight, were the contradictions on Mementoss + voting that Hiro pointed out. It's a disconnect in thinking about an issue that is often explained by the fact that scum have to manufacture opinions, and therefore they don't match up. The fact he backed down from it doesn't change the fact he made it in the first place. In Movie Mafia Day 2 (hi prplhz) Snarfs plunked his vote on me (QQ, a theme) with a contradiction of dismissing my town motivation as WIFOM, and using WIFOM to give the scum motivation. I called him scum for it, and he backed down from it (because
how can you maintain a contradictory position?) but he was scum nevertheless.
There's not enough else in Hapa's filter to warrant me voting him or anything. A lot of what he's done seems constructive, so I'm not willing to go after him, but I'm uneasy.
mkfuba: Someone else I'm kinda suspicious of but I don't want to vote today. Mementoss, I know you think we're buddying, but agreeing on a potential read is just that we agree on a potential read.
The reason I'm suspicious of fuba is that he was absent for such a long time at the beginning of the day, so I was expecting to come back with something big and impressive in the evening, and he did not.
Ameliorating these concerns slightly is that mkfuba is holy-shit wishy washy at the best of times. Seriously, go read any of his games, he's a known wishywashy meister. So this isn't really a tell either way for me. I need more information and posting from fuba to get a proper read on him.
From what I know of him, he struggles to write posts as both alignments, but especially as scum finds it hard to find stuff to write about. So that's what I will be looking out for as the game goes on (presuming I survive this lynch :D)
HiroPro: Suspicious of him too. If his contributions on Palmar/Hapa weren't things I'd even considered myself, I'd probably want to lynch him right now. Whether people agree with it or not, I found his point on Palmar pretty good,
especially as Palmar at the time came in swinging with scum/town reads with practically no explanation. The fact that he picked up on Hapa's contradiction also shows an attentiveness to the thread and analysis that indicates townie. The problem at the moment is that he has not subsequently taken a firm stance on anyone or anything beyond these observations. Leaning kinda scummy.
Zephirdd: I know he attracted a vote or two today, but I don't wanna lynch him. I thought his Hapa case was bad, and the fact he backed down from it even weaker. But his posts since then have had a collaboratory feel that I haven't felt from Zephirdd since we were town in NMM2 together. So leaning town.
austin: yeah, I think I most of all want to lynch austin. Some of it's gonna be a rehash, but it's important for the whole thing. The reason people jumped on austin in the first place:
On September 18 2012 06:55 austinmcc wrote:On September 18 2012 06:50 Blazinghand wrote:
Hey pudding-munchers stop arguing about that and read my case
I don't know how anyone can munch on pudding.
I DO kind of like that observation. It feels almost TOO obvious but...man it's kind of damning.
Pretty much generally agreed that this was scummy, so won't delve too much. Where shit starts to diverge is on the response, which people read as townie. There's important time issues to look at. BlazingHand first pushes him to elaborate on it, and we get this as a response:
On September 18 2012 07:16 austinmcc wrote:On September 18 2012 07:09 Blazinghand wrote:On September 18 2012 06:55 austinmcc wrote:On September 18 2012 06:50 Hapahauli wrote:
If mafia would like to keep hypothetical townie-marv alive to the endgame because of my "policy lynch," then awesome! Mission accomplished! Though in all seriousness, I've read through quite a few of his recent games. He never lives as town past N3 (barring Mad Men Mafia where he was a replacement) in his recent games. If he's alive a long time, there's a very high chance (IMO basically guaranteed chance) of him flipping red.
<3 everyone at all, but you need to look further. He's generally not being killed off for supersexy scumhunting, but because he comes off as very townie and is generating a lot of discussion/activity from others. His early reads, although I haven't read recent games, are not generally a big threat to mafia.
On September 18 2012 06:50 Blazinghand wrote:
Hey pudding-munchers stop arguing about that and read my case
I don't know how anyone can munch on pudding.
I DO kind of like that observation. It feels almost TOO obvious but...man it's kind of damning.
Elaborate. Now.
Elaboration on the second half - Pudding is soft. Munching feels like it requires chewing, crunching. Can't do that with pudding. As to the obvious bit, obvious is the wrong word. I like...neat observations like that. It says something, unsure what, about you that you could pull out the starts to prplhz's game just like POOF. Like, I key in on the initial question more than the actual scummy stuff, because there's a chance that prplhz doesn't realize he's started scum games like that. But ... he has to, right? I gotta leave work, but the thought process is convoluted here.
Pudding blabla not satisfactory at all.
His 'townie' explanation that follows only comes after me, Hapa, and BH apply further considerable pressure.On September 18 2012 08:03 austinmcc wrote:On September 18 2012 07:21 Blazinghand wrote:
The "it's way too scummy, he must be town" argument is dumb on its head. What are you even saying
On September 18 2012 07:23 marvellosity wrote:
austin, you're not playing with grush.
speak plainly or die like a little bitch.
It's not that it's too scummy to be town. Because the part of your post that I key in on is that prplhz, in two other scum games, and in none of the games he's played as town (out of what you reference), opens in a similar manner.
I think you are stretching when you say that the questions are scummy. Yes he can go look the guy up. Yes, he might ought to at least remember that the guy played in a game he hosted. But it's not like...asking a question about who someone is is scummy on its face. There's no scumhunting heuristic for "opens games asking questions about a particular player." It MAY be scummy as applied to prplhz, but it's not like every player who opens like that is probably scum.
So then . . . working off that. If it's not scummy on its face, but might be scummy to prplhz, why? There's no objective pushed there, it's not like starting off a game with that post helps a mafia objective. If prplhz is scum and happens to start all his scum games this way, it's just something he does without knowing it. There's no objective pushed.
Then finally, if starting games that way as scum is just something prplhz does without knowing it, not to push an objective, then . . . it's almost null? Not getting there in the same way "small sample size" gets there. The train of thought is...
(1) This is a thing that prplhz has done in scum games
(2) This is a thing that does not further mafia objectives, or actively DO anything really
(3) Therefore, it's likely he's just doing it subconsciously
(4) If he's doing it subconsciously, then it's not really a tell.
Could argue that he only does it subconsciously as scum, but then you get the sample size discussion and there's no real proof either way.
So obvious was really the wrong word choice, when I fully go through this. It's not a bad explanation as it goes, and I can see why people viewed it as townie. But the fact is that it only came after his previous, poor explanation. In other words, he had to give a good explanation because he knew a large part of town was hounding him for it. In this context, I believe it loses some of its 'townieness'. I bold the final line as well for a reason. Obvious was the wrong word choice, eh? Look at how austin usually posts - longwinded, carefully thought out. Yet in this instance he'd thrown out his 'obvious' and 'too damning'. It looks like austin is justifying his scummy words after the fact.
austin has a few posts subsequently, but they are all focused on his own defence rather than any other scumhunting. Why is he so worried about how others view his defence? Why is he only talking about his own defence rather than being proactive elsewhere? Because he's worried that he needs to appear as town.
After these posts, austin has been markedly absent from any of the considerable goings-on in this thread. We don't have an opinion on anyone or anything, except his own defence. His play is marked by being worried by how he appears, rather than finding scum.
##Vote: austinmcc
The only other candidate I'm interested in is prplhz. Ange makes some very good points, especially the two I pointed out a little earlier:
On September 19 2012 21:12 marvellosity wrote:On September 19 2012 20:28 Ange777 wrote:prplhzOn September 18 2012 20:33 prplhz wrote:
Disclaimer: I don't read any analysis that refer to the "Zephirdd Rule" also known as the "Kenpachi Rule Extended" because I think it's bullshit.
Anyway, HapaHauli is playing active and townie and I have no interest in lynching him today. Ange777 is looking terrible though.
@Ange777 Have you been scum at any point and can you direct me to one of those games?
List of people who suck: Bluelightz, marvellosity.
Nice excuse for not reading the thread.
Why wouldn't someone read the thread closely? Bullshit is not always just bullshit, it can have town motivation or scum motivation. Is it because you are scum and already know the alignments?
On September 19 2012 06:54 prplhz wrote:
I have some small reservations with the marvellosity lynch that I can tell you about later but for now he's my top candidate.
So when is it "later"?
How do you want to convince us into lynching your allegedly top scum read when you yourself have reservations you are not willing to share with us? I just read your case properly Ange, and I've left in the quote above the two points I think are particularly good. I'd like an answer from prplhz sooner rather than later.
Unless these are answered satisfactorily, I am open to a prplhz lynch too.