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Honestly you guys are giving me an hard time to find which one of you is the most scummy...
@debears
SDM clearly stated that he dislikes last minute lynches and that he was ok for a no-lynch. Yet, we have pressured him onto a vote on Z-BosoN and we almost got the veteran killed. At this point, the situation was clearly fucked-up. He didn't want to get dragged in mislynches anymore I guess. The flip of Omni was enough info to get. Also he wanted to wait for a counterclaim. All of this makes sense from a town PoV.
What doesn't make sense is a mafia SDM not jumping on the easiest wagon of all time for a mislynch. Do you believe that the last scum wouldn't have taken this golden opportunity not to lynch you ?
Seriously debears, go find something scummy in RSC filter or concede.
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Don't worry, I'm also going to feel like a total idiot I you flip town...
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Okay, I get your point now.
So, according to you, who are the guys we should lynch tomorrow ?
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I don't think your alignment is going to help us much for a possible lylo. I don't see any possibility where there is a lylo with you and SS still alive...
I think it would be better to lynch SS first.
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By the way I'm reading through the thread right now and I'm going to bring up some elements to lynch Shady first tomorrow...
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Honestly guys I recommend you to read the thread again. There is some gold in here, in particularly in corrosion's filter !
Look what I've just found into Shady's filter just after Alsn's lynch. Nobody has ever mentioned or imagine the possibility of a cop at this point but here comes Shady's advice:
On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote: Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum.
## Vote debears
Heading out for the night. If I don't make it back by daypost, cop please check omni or remedy and remember it is possible GF is last mafia. That's all, glhf.
How can he know this setup is a cop setup ? This is a big scumslip in my view. He is GF himself so he knows there is a cop somewhere around.
I'll come to you with a nice complete case before the end of the night ^^
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First of all, let's have a look on the amount of scumhunting produced by corrosion, we have:
- a weak-ass case against DarthPunk, which seems scum-motivated
- a FoS on debears followed by a vote on him, in a pure OMGus style
And then a quick glance at Shady's scumhunting:
- drops by and casts a vote on Alsn, no original thinking
- drops by and casts a vote on Debears, on whom he was still not sold on
- drops by and FoS then vote Z-Boson, which create great confusion, his first attempt of real scumhunt
That makes the total amount of scum-hunting very close to absolutely nothing...
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Ok, here is my analysis of Corrosion's filter ! I assume he is the last scum here and show how his actions make sense with this hypothesis.
He starts with some posts without any real content, calls out Remedy for lurking (how ironic). And then decides to attempt his first case on DarthPunk. Pretty ballsy for a newbie...
Here is the case with my comments in bold fonts
On September 29 2012 04:29 corrosion wrote:I'm just going to address the "fight" between Darth and Kush. I'm going to focus on Darth for now. Looking more closely into Kush's contribution is something I think should be done well ahead of lynch time. I'm actually going to start by telling about some thoughts I had after reading my role PM. I was trying to figure out what players town should be focusing on. I had obsed NMMXXVII, and came to the conclusion that it might be reasonable to go after any player except Kush. I figured that Kush was going to make a lot of posts anyway, so I was thinking that we could get a good analysis of him without any early pressure. His motivation is to shift the focus away from Kush. I've also watched a few games before ining and what I was thinking of Kush is that he was hard to analyze because of his scummy meta. So, on the contrary, I had thought of a Kush Lynch Policy rather than this "let him post without paying mind" Policy.One of the first things Darth did was to antagonize Kush: + Show Spoiler +On September 28 2012 08:34 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 06:58 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic getting everyone's thoughts on lurker policy is important. Don't argue about it but share your views on the matter please.. No it's not. It is simply a mechanism to get the discussion going and allows scum to seem to participate and to potentially mislynch an inactive townie. Any more talk of policy will get you FoS'd. I'm thinking that this could easily be an attempt to start a fight that would result in derailing the thread. Kush responded the way I expected him to, and these two posters exchanged arguments back and forth. In the middle of this, Darth made a remark against lurkers, but quickly changed his focus back on Kush. Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 10:36 DarthPunk wrote: So is everyone just going to drop their welcome posts and then afk? I don't see why he should make this comment at this time, since it wasn't going to get looked at while there was a fight going on. His case is forced and he has to put in irrelevant stuff to make it look like there is some content in itShortly afterwards, Kush makes his supposed scum slip. Darth jumps on it, and shortly afterwards he posts about his previous mafia games. I've watched the game where he played cop, and seen that he and Shady argued a lot on D1. So I was thinking that this seems to be Darth's town meta. But I also asked myself why he did post about his previous games at this point in time. Maybe this was all intentional. Suppose he suddenly remembered that game. He might not have wanted people to look at those games earlier, but now he realized that if he posted them he would be able to establish a town read on himself. he might have skimmed through Darth's filter to find anything that could make him suspiciousI'm not sure if this is a strong case against Darth at the moment. I would like some input from the more experienced players here. If Kush hadn't made that slip, I think the derailing argument would have looked strong. Now it doesn't look so strong, because we've actually gotten new information. I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner. He knows his case is bs so he's protecting himself. Try to reduce the importance of Kush's scumslip as the same time. It's kind of funny because he is also slipping himself at the same time (in bold).His cases against Debears and Alsn are something that might reveal useful information, but I've not studied them closely yet. I still think that Kush seems more suspicious when everything is taken into consideration but with all the focus that has been on him, I'm sure someone else can post a decent case on him before we need to consider our first lynch. Doesn't want to commit to do the dirty job. Ask for someone else to build a case against Darth
In this post he gets defensive and keeps his options open regarding Kush, then vote him giving bad reasons.
On September 29 2012 07:17 corrosion wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2012 05:50 Z-BosoN wrote: corrosion, some issues with your post.
...
You're not seeing my points in the proper context. Now maybe you think my analysis is weak. I can understand that view. I haven't played in one of these before, so I'm not really good at seeing the difference between weak arguments and strong arguments. Some of the other posters in the thread encouraged new players to post, but maybe I should have waited awhile and tried to build a really solid case. Show nested quote + Who are you more inclined to vote on and why? I can't tell by the wishy-washy tone of your post
I haven't made up mind yet, so I'll be voting tomorrow. I'm thinking Kush, but I'll browse the latest developments tomorrow and see if anything has changed by then.
Later in the thread, it doesn't want this to backfire at him so he gives his motivation for building a case on Darth.
On September 30 2012 23:43 corrosion wrote:I'm going to explain my actions on the second part of D1. I had just made a post trying to induce Remedy to post more, so we could get a better read on him. I might have come across rude, but I wanted to get his attention. Because I hadn't posted much content myself, I decided that I was going to start writing a case on Darth that I had been thinking about doing earlier. Before saying more about the post, I'll specify that this happened after Kush's scumslip and after his explanation. When the slip was pointed out, I thought that the "townie statement" could just be implying that he had a town read on Darth. I think someone later implied that it was a contradiction because he had earlier accused Darth of being scum, but I don't find any prior statement from Kush that actually says that Darth is scum (maybe others did read something between the lines). I've read that mafia don't usually make blatant slips, so I was hesitant. Kush mentioning his streak earlier also seemed blatant. It's not really good town strategy to simulate your play from your last scum game, but with Kush I thought it might be his way of applying game theory to stay consistent no matter what role he is. Then I saw his explanation, and it didn't fit the defense I would have expected if my earlier assumption had been correct. At this point I thought that it was a good chance that Kush was scum. I did not find the use of the word "townie" natural. I guess the main reason that I didn't totally stick with that read, was this post from Darth: Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 21:23 DarthPunk wrote:On September 28 2012 21:18 Djodref wrote:@corrosionI'm actually working in Korea so I don't enjoy so much free time . But a big national holiday is coming this week end so I should be able to participate to the thread and finish to read all the guides. @everyone This also means party time ! I'm currently headed to get drunk all night so you shouldn't be hearing from me until tomorrow 12.00 pm KST. Also I'm accepting Kush explanation for calling Darth a townie but it would be better for him to refrain calling someone a townie or a scum without explanations later on... Wow. Really? That was not an explanation at all. It was a slip, and now everyone believes his weak as shit explanation. Anyway this is obviously going nowhere. And it is becoming a distraction at this point. ##Unvote##FoS: Kush I felt like this was a strange reaction, and a somewhat bad explanation. I especially thought that the point about "everybody believes his weak as shit explanation" seemed strange because it seemed to me that only a few people had said that, and since those people might as well have been mafia I thought the reasoning for unvoting was weak. Then he goes on to FoS Alsn. This flipflopping made me uncertain of his motives, so I decided to try to make my "case" on him. The case itself has been discussed already. I'll address a few things: + Show Spoiler +"Maybe this was all intentional. Suppose he suddenly remembered that game. He might not have wanted people to look at those games earlier, but now he realized that if he posted them he would be able to establish a town read on himself."
I was going to write maybe instead of suppose, but just then I remembered that indecisiveness isn't good for town. I see now that I went overboard with that paragraph, and should probably have dropped it altogether. + Show Spoiler +If Kush hadn't made that slip, I think the derailing argument would have looked strong. Now it doesn't look so strong, because we've actually gotten new information. I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner.
When I say town would be lucky, I meant that we would be lucky that Kush made such a huge slip. It seems now that Darth did a very good job at exploiting Kush's tendencies, so it's hardly luck alone that led to a successful lynch.
While writing the post, I was starting to get tired. It was getting late and it had been a long day. Instead of finishing analyzing Darth's filter, I decided to stop. I did feel the pressure to post something after my comment to Remedy, and I thought: "Fuck it. Newbies were encouraged to post, so I'll just post what I have and see what feedback I get." Voting: + Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 21:59 corrosion wrote: Let me just state the reasons that my vote is on Kush right now:
1) I think his explanation of the slip was poor. If he had given a good explanation, I might have believed him. 2) I've been thinking about who would benefit if the result is a no-lynch. I'm thinking mafia is likely to benefit the most from a no-lynch.
Right now, I think that there's more than a 25 % chance that Kush is scum. Therefore, I'm voting for him. I'm not sure if any of these points are original. I'm having trouble keeping up with the thread, because I tend to get hanged up in details. I've already explained my first point. The second point was poorly worded. Here's my thought process: I was thinking about the majority lynch, since I hadn't watched any games with this mechanism before. My thinking was that there was a reasonable chance that Kush was mafia so even if I had reason to vote on another person that I found even scummier, the wagon on that person could lead to a no-lynch. I was also unsure how the missing vote from Lesrah would factor into this. If someone needs 7 of 11 active votes to get lynched, the chance of a no-lynch would be rather big. I guess I could have asked about this, but I was unsure how that question would be interpreted. The reason I state that I think mafia would benefit from a no-lynch and my mention of 25 %, was that I was thinking that it would be a lot worse for mafia to lose a power role(a possible outcome) than for town to lose a vanilla. Kush hadn't made any attempt at claiming a blue role. 25 % is the percentage of mafia in this setup if I read correctly. This doesn't take into account my own alignment, but I figured that my earlier theory of power roles would compensate for that. I'm estimating that I was actually around 50 % certain that Kush was scum at this point in time. Here are some references of early posts regarding postin: + Show Spoiler +On September 28 2012 07:41 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 07:08 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 28 2012 06:58 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic getting everyone's thoughts on lurker policy is important. Don't argue about it but share your views on the matter please.. Encouraging newbie towns to post is more important than typing out the same things I've said about lurker policy in XXVI and XXVII yet again: If we don't have a good scum case (lurker or active) by late d1, we lynch the most suspicious lurker. We should obviously be looking to avoid that scenario by scum hunting. That's really all that needs to be said as far as I'm concerned. Agreed but, regrettably, there isn't really anything else to talk about this early. To second his point about townies being active, don't get intimidated if you aren't really sure how to make a case and stop posting. Long cases aren't the only way to catch scum so if you feel overwhelmed sick around and ask questions. Demand answers for things you find wrong. Even if it doesn't directly catch a scum it provides insight into both you and the person you question. Silence allows the scum to hide very easily without having to do anything. Here, Sonic and Stutters advice newbies to post. On September 28 2012 11:34 debears wrote: @Darthpunk
Do you have links to all your previous games?
I see validity in your points. However, I need to see how you've played before. You are coming off really strong really early.
and @Kush
Tunneling does not mean only looking at the people under pressure. It means that we should only post cases with substance at that point. Someone going off tangent on some stupid duck hunt with no reason and distracting the attention of the town is bad at that point. If you do feel suspicious of someone but don't have a good case, just keep it on word and save it for when evidence does come out. Here, Debears advices against posting cases that are weak ("at that point" refers to the second half of D1). So maybe I didn't pay enough attention on Debears' advice, and just thought about Stutter's post. Interestingly, this is the same post that Debears made that I overlooked when making my "previous game history" argument against Darth. Whew. I'm gonna take a little break. Psssht (Tychus quote)
He says that the unvote move of Darth has irked him. But then why not including it in the initial case ? I'm pretty sure he has been looking for a reason a posteriori. And regarding the Voting part (in red), the second reason is absolutely ridiculous. At the moment when Corrosion casts his vote, the threat of a no-lynch has disappeared.
Here are also one post about his town-read on Darth.
On September 30 2012 05:16 corrosion wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2012 05:50 Z-BosoN wrote: corrosion, some issues with your post.
3) You are just rambling here, I think. I take the DP/kush exchange as being genuine, unless they are both scum and agreed to flaming each other. I don't think thta's likely, due to kush's fiery meta.
I considered the possibility of both being scum early on but if both were scum, I see no reason whatsoever for Kush's scumslip. So I'm now saying that Darth is close to being confirmed town. This is something town should keep in mind during N1 and D2. It would be a spectacular bus if they did this on purpose. The only reason I can see for doing that, would be if Kush had slipped earlier in the thread. I do not think so but if someone wants to look into it, go ahead. I'm not going to spend my time on that.
Darth is close to be confirmed town in his opinion but I have the impression that Corrosion would welcome gladly a case bases on an bus of Kush by Darth. Confirmed townies are indeed a pain for the mafia.
I'm not going to go through the rest in detail but here is a sum-up:
- Poorly addressing Debears case against him and OMGusing him with a FoS
- States that he is spending too much time reading but also admits that he doesn't even entirely read Alsn posts
- Make a list before being remplaced. Mafia players make lists, it's in all the newbie guides !
I don't know what to add. I think it's pretty serious incrimination, I don't even understand how I could have a slight town-read on this guy. I never should have let my FoS down
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And now here is my analysis of Shady's filter ! His actions pretty much speak for themselves
Please notice first how Corrosion's leaves the thread with a no-lynch vote. I think this move was advised by the mafia coach to let all options open for the replacement when he comes into the thread.
So let's look at Shady's first real post. My comments are in red bold font in the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote:So at this point I have a moderate scum read on Alsn and strong town read on Darthpunk. Picks up Alsn as a target while distancing himself from the lynchI'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why? - First, his activity and "choppiness" is way higher than in the last newbie game I played with him, where he flipped town. That game, I was scum, and I whacked him N1 because his analysis was so dead-on, accurate, and well-composed--we actually placed killing him at a higher priority than trying to snipe our top cop read. I don't get that feeling with Alsn this game. Alsn's analysis has been much, much weaker than I usually give him credit for. But overall, meta is a weak way to read a player. Much stronger...
- ...is his reasoning regarding the Kush switch. He was one of the last to go to Kush and tried to appear as reluctant and thoughtful as possible. He also tried to subtly denigrate the worth of a Kush flip
First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange). While we might just think he was being reluctant, part of me thinks Alsn posted like this because it was the only way out of a bad situation. Alsn went to sleep at 03:50, when no one had voted anyone yet. Then wakes up 14 hours and several pages later with a massive wagon forming on scum Kush. At this point, if Alsn was scum, he'd be stuck in a terrible spot: he needs to somehow look like he's been convinced into voting Kush. So he does do this, with a pretty WIFOM starting post that gets pressured and then gives him the ladder he needs to climb down to a kush vote. All in all a pretty neat play... but one that feels just a little too much like play-acting rather than genuine scumhunting for me to like it.
- Contrast his reads on Kush with his posts on Debears. Before he switches to Kush, he says he did soul searching and hard thinking and found no one as a better lynch. Then all of a sudden, on D2, when there's a fresh slate to push a new lynch, he starts using Debears' D1 posts as evidence that points to scumminess. This is wierd. Why didn't Alsn publish this beforehand? There is no motivation for a town Alsn to change his mind on cut and dry evidence in this fashion.
- Finally, and this is pure speculation unless a medic/JK comes out and claims an action on DP, the fact that there is no NK might mean that medic/JK saved the obvious confirmed townie (DP) and scum tried to kill him. This is wierd play if scum knows it's likely DP was going to be saved. This means something that DP did during night spooked scum. DP accused Alsn during the night.
The points add nothing new. He is clearly sheeping right now (as a lot of us did). I'm quite sure he did pick Alsn over Debears because he was afraid of Alsn potential in the future of the game.All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote AlsnHowever, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind. Distancing himself and disappear
And comes back just to vote on debears with this post
On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote: Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum.
## Vote debears
Heading out for the night. If I don't make it back by daypost, cop please check omni or remedy and remember it is possible GF is last mafia. That's all, glhf.
First of all, he doesn't give any kind of reasonable explanations for his vote. He is just sheeping on our previous cases on him which he was not buying yet, as he stated on his previous post. Plus, I'm sure now that I've found a serious scumslip in this post. I've checked all filters carefully and the few mentions of a cop role that I saw were referring to the game where DarthPunk was cop. Before him, nobody has ever mentioned nor imagined the possibility of a cop. At this time, he is the only one with me who know that we are playing a cop setup because he is the Godfather ! Please also notice how he wants me to check Omni or Remedy rather than Debears. He knows that Debears is town and doesn't want the cop to defend him the following day.
Unfortunately, things don't go according to his plan during D3. Except me, nobody wants to lynch Debears anymore. And the focus is starting to get very close to him again (Omni and SS were the candidates for the second edition for the battle for the noose which never happened). He decided to confuse everybody by doing this
On October 05 2012 14:19 Shady Sands wrote: By the way, I'm reading through the thread. Right now, my top scumread, believe it or not, is Z-Boson. His interaction with Kush D1 was just... strange (it almost feels like half of the discussion there was occurring somewhere else, like in the Scum QT), his unvote of Debears and transfer to Alsn is also wierd, and finally his constant fingerpointing without any commitment D3 fits the profile of being the very last scum trying to stay alive and set up mislynch chains over the next few cycles.
##FoS Z-Boson
I fall into his evil trap and town goes scatter. We need two consecutive blue claims to avoid a mislynch, SDM brain has exploded, Z-Boson is super angry. Debears and me are running in circles. But now it is the end, the last scum is going to fall.
So, Shady, how about you concede ?
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Hell, it really looks like nobody cares anymore...
So my final recommendation is to lynch Shady first. If it gets to lylo after, I would advice to lynch debears first but I'm not 100% sure.
See you in the afterlife !
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yeah, sorry for the formatting...
I thought that votes were not taken into account during night time.
##Vote Shady
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Are the night votes taken into account the day after ?
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I'm going to bed soon so I would just like to say that I'll try to invest debears tonight...
Lynch Shady -> GG
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I really enjoyed my first game so I would like to thanks everyone for playing, hosting and coaching. I'm a little disapointed that all my scum reads were wrong and that SDM picked me up as the cop during D3. I've learned that I shouldn't WIFOM myself into oblivion and I should scumhunt more. In this game, showing survival instinct was a good scum tell (and cop tell) but I didn't pay attention to it.
I hope to improve for my next games and that I could play with you again
Props to SDM for playing alone this whole time ^^ Props to debears for his patience when I was building pure WIFOM cases against him
Thank you everyone !
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I should also be carefull of confirmation bias...
I was having town confirmation bias for the other newbies and scum confirmation bias for debears and Shady at the end. My conviction of deabears being scum has really dropped during D3 but I was getting lazy at this time and I didn't think through all the implications, mainly the possibility for a bus and a setup.
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