On December 20 2012 02:05 Eywa- wrote:The Story Of Palmar
From the very first post
First post, fairly harmless, but it's downhill from thereon.
Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 18:54 Palmar wrote:
Can we have instant majority lynching optional so I can hammer bugs dead on the night christ was born?
Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 22:32 Palmar wrote:
I like my millers unaware and of the death variety.
Palmar decides to comence his character development before the start of day 1... It's a bold move, how can it go wrong. I'll tell you, it starts off that Palmar is a hyper-aggressive player who enjoys blindsides and what not. He's very keen on this idea, so keen, that his gameplay should follow the same trend right? Well, that's the first anomaly... His pre-game attitude is polar opposite to his ingame attitude. In the game, Palmar is no where near this aggressive.
The game has started, Palmar detects an anomaly in someone's post, something he can't make sense of... No suspicion is raised, no attack is made... Nothing but a Wut and a half assed explanation offered. Not even asking for a second opinion.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 10:26 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 09:11 yamato77 wrote:
I'm miller.
This post is not going to count against my post count because I'm forced to do this, I believe.
wut?
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 10:26 Palmar wrote:
oh and I'm going to sleep will read tomorrow
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 10:30 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 10:27 iamperfection wrote:On December 19 2012 10:26 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 09:11 yamato77 wrote:
I'm miller.
This post is not going to count against my post count because I'm forced to do this, I believe.
wut?
wut are you confused about?
He seems to think he's forced to claim miller, and is talking about post count?
Now, Again, we look farther into Palmar's filter... We find some very telling info. First, he offers the hypothesis of posting or lurking is in no way affiliated to allignment, then he goes off and says, but if it was it would be this way. I mean, the indecisiveness is in no way the Palmar we saw pre-game... It's kind of like he's leaving his options open so that people can agree with either side of his argument, like... I don't like tomato soup, but if you're making some, I prefer it with crackers rather than noodles.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 18:20 Palmar wrote:
Actually that's not true. I don't think you can safely read anything into the frequency of posting, but if you really want to, I'd rather go with it being a point in the scummy column than the townie one if a player is posting less than expected.
Also what the fuck is up with this new TL town shit meta of defending everyone and everything for no bloody reason. What happened to only defending if you're certain you're right and just letting people fend for themselves?
In the same post as we see the indecisiveness of someone afraid to take innitiative, he claims that people should stop defending each other... Why does he claim this? There's no reason to... Is he seeking for there to be less counter-evidence provided on cases? That seems pretty
scummy to me.
Next, we have perhaps the biggest teller which clearly marks Palmar as
scum. Never does a townie have to explain how they would be playing if they were playing scum... It just doesn't make any reasonable sense to. His argument is entirely based around the scum not getting lynched on the first day he claims miller even if there's a counter-claim... Regardless, one of the Millers is going to die today, the next tomorrow... Given that, the scum don't find themselves any further ahead in any scenario except if there's no counter claim which basically turns his entire mathematics scenario into complete hocum.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 18:41 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 09:10 sciberbia wrote:Hi everyone!
In the interest of getting discussion started, I'm going to argue why millers should claim on D1 in this setup:
We have either no millers or 1 miller, and the chance that we have a miller is roughly 40%.
+ Show Spoiler +C9++ specification:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++Keirathi said in the OP that he replaced innocent child with miller. So, we have a miller if Keir drew exactly 1 M or exactly 3 M's. He drew 7 letters and each has a 10% chance of being an M.
Chance of 1 M = (.1)^1 * (.9)^6 * (choose 1 from 7) = 37.20087%
Chance of 3 M = (.1)^3 * (.9)^4 * (choose 3 from 7) = 2.29635%
So overall, the chance that we have a miller is 39.49722%
Therefore, it would be a major risk for scum to fakeclaim miller. They'd have a 40% chance of being counterclaimed and subsequently lynched. Because it is such a big risk for a scum to take, I think we could have some faith in any D1 miller claim being an honest one.
Thoughts?
You forget that the counterclaim doesn't necessarily mean that the scum will get lynched right away, I dare say I'd take this chance as scum. If you manage to argue your way out of the day 1 lynch and get the real miller lynched, you've successfully wasted a day for town and even if you yourself will die the following day, it's 2 days pretty much wasted.
So not only do you have 40% chance of getting ridiculous amount of town cred (who is thinking about lynching yamato77 now? anyone?) But you also get an additional 30% chance of at least wasting towns time for not a great, but acceptable trade. (assuming there's 60
I'd do it in a heartbeat.
However, I think we need to trust yamato's claim. Or well it's the default position. I don't know the guy and I usually assume people I don't know just play straight up, because recognizing this opportunity as mafia, having the confidence to win against the counterclaim, and having the balls to make the claim seems too much to ask from someone who's new I think.
That leaves 11 people to look at.
Now, not only does he lay out the "I would do this if I were
scum, he also lays out that we should trust someone whom we've never heard of, seen play or spoken to before because it's a bold move to claim Miller... How the $#(% does that leave us with 11 people to look at? I mean... This post just has
scum written all over it, and it gives us his partner in crime too (unless he's trying to get yamato killed - in which case yamato would be revealed town (we're assuming that Palmar has this knowledge) and once yamato is revealed town, Palmar looks innocent because his hypothesis was proven right). Puleeeease.
Moving ON
SORRY ABOUT THAT, I DIDN'T MEAN ANYTHING BY IT, PLEASE DON'T HURT ME.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 19:56 Palmar wrote:
oh, I misread the earlier conversation. Sorry about that.
You might take the chance if you were town, given your current state though, you don't seem to want to actually take ANY decision whatsoever, even trivial ones. You're afraid to stick your toe out... Sounds
scummy.
You'd think it can't get better... Well, it does.
So now you're telling us how you are even though your actions are entirely the opposite? And since when do we talk in absolutes... YOUR OPINION OF ME IS A LIE! I'M NOT
SCUM... Do you really think that your defensive nature here is helping you?
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 19:57 Palmar wrote:
Also what do you intend to accomplish trying to argue whether or not I'd take a chance on a powerplay as scum? Are you just trying to stir up shit for the sake of it?
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 20:45 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 20:14 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 19 2012 19:57 Palmar wrote:
Also what do you intend to accomplish trying to argue whether or not I'd take a chance on a powerplay as scum? Are you just trying to stir up shit for the sake of it?
nope, just pointing out misrepresentation.
I don't believe it is one. And I think I know myself better than you do.
So you're lying right now. Why?
I want you to come up with a justification for why this guy is
scum... I know I just called you a lier and thus, probably should think of you as a scumbag, but I am just going to throw all that out the window to prove that debears is indeed scum... However, I don't want to point it out because that'd be too risky, I want you or anyone else for that matter to point out that debears is scum with an explanation for it. What's gotten you so scared of taking the wheel Palmar? Concerned you may look
SCUM for attacking people?
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 21:03 Palmar wrote:
In fact bugs, I want to know exactly how you feel about debears. Please don't just give me a random answers, I want explanation for whatever hunch you may have, and if you cannot tell which way you're leaning, I want you to explain why.
In return, I'm willing to extend the invitation for anyone in the thread to challenge me to analyse any player's alignment based on their posting so far. Obviously I cannot write a lengthy analysis on everyone in the game, so the first 2 suggested I will check out.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 21:15 Palmar wrote:
Why do you consider asking you to sit down and give me your thoughts on a player to be a waste of time? I can see two very good things come out of it. One is that if I compare your thought process to mine, and see the reasoning behind yours, I may get a better read on your alignment.
The second is I don't understand how trying to figure out player's alignments can be a waste of time, it's kinda the point of the game dude.
I'm reaching out to you bro. Embrace the hug!
I WOULD TOTALLY DO THAT, I WOULD TOTALLY DO THAT EVEN THOUGH THIS GAME I HAVE BEEN AS PASSIVE AS THAT BUMP ON THE LOG. Oh wait... You're right, I wouldn't do it
... I'm not
scum though... DONT HURT ME, YOU'RE RIGHT! YOU'RE RIGHT... I Love you, please don't hurt me.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 21:18 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 21:11 wherebugsgo wrote:
Also lol @ the lying part. You might know yourself better than I do but I certainly don't think the best judge of one's play in mafia is himself.
Well I thought you'd judge what I do based on past experiences. I've proclaimed myself King as mafia, I've claimed an insane cop for no good reason. I do powerplays all the time, and if I say that I'd take the chance to this powerplay I would.
However you are somewhat right, because due to how publicly I despise miller claims, in the end I wouldn't do it. My point was that if I wasn't bound to playing to my meta, I would take this risk. However no one would believe me claiming miller on day 1. I wouldn't even do it if I was town anyway.
Hah, just kidding, I'd do it but it'd be in a way that nobody would ever know it were me and I would never prove that it's me... Seriously...
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 21:21 Palmar wrote:
So yeah, I guess you lying is a bit over the top. To sum up and explain better, I would make the miller claim as scum, if was playing on a smurf, but not under my main account and all the baggage that comes with that.
Everyone is being watched, even though I earlier claimed Yamato was 100% innocent... Odd isn't it?
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 21:40 Palmar wrote:On December 19 2012 21:37 wherebugsgo wrote:
I have no reason to make public reads that are better off being developed in private. Tainting reads by giving your targets forewarning that they're being watched carefully is generally (I've found) a good way to ruin them, at least on day 1.
Everyone is being watched anyway.
Wait... it's not over ladies and gents, there's more...
The guy who has refused to give out a solid opinion on anything this game - including his own gameplay is now saying that it's hard to read someone because they didn't decide anything? Yeah... Trully feeling it.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 22:20 Palmar wrote:
Whatever, your refusal to share any of your thoughts make it hard to get a read on you. Maybe we should just lynch you to get a read on you.
Now... If you've read up until now, this next part is totally hilarious... Like, take a good look, he's been talking a whole bunch about his past games and now he's saying "THIS GUY IS SCUM FOR SAYING HE DID IT BEFORE".... OKAY, YOU FINALLY... Oh wait, you're second on the target and even then... YOU ARE SKEPTICAL, you have no opinion... Why? I imagine you want to mirror someone else's.
SCUMShow nested quote +On December 19 2012 23:32 Palmar wrote:@sciberbia
To add to your case, I had already noticed this post as you did:
On December 19 2012 09:33 debears wrote:
I've done the same thing before. Claiming VT serves no useful purpose for town early d1
What sticks out to me here is the first part. The second part is obviously correct, but the first part is interesting, why is it included in this post? It's not necessary to drive the point across, it doesn't help debears press the issue, all there is to it is an attempt to convince that since this is what he does, we need not worry about him being mafia.
I need to read more, but I think maybe we have a good option here for a lynch.
Once again, I don't mind, but I won't make the call.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 23:39 Palmar wrote:
Also I don't mind lynching the roleplayer.
Oh good, someone voted on an easy target, let's kill him.
People don't like how he's posting, I can make another easy decision! YAY!
Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 00:07 Palmar wrote:On December 20 2012 00:05 iamperfection wrote:On December 20 2012 00:03 Palmar wrote:
##Vote Eywa-
see the same thing im seeing so far?
No I cba even reading his posts.
We're watching everybody, but we're not lynching these guys... Let's add someone who seems less questionable so that I gain credibility.
Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 00:12 Palmar wrote:
An important update:
Sciberbia has joined yamato77 in the list of players we're not lynching.
No one should gain town influence, because that's dangerous... It's okay for me to go and sheep opinions without throwing anything out there that might turn someone against me...
Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 00:17 Palmar wrote:On December 20 2012 00:13 Toadesstern wrote:
Hey Palmar. Do you think WBG would be so open about explaining what he's doing if he's really trying to do what he wants us to think he's doing?
He's just an overconfident asshole, I don't really care what he's doing at the moment. As long as he doesn't gain any sort of influence on the town I'm pretty much okay with not worrying too much about him at the moment.
He's notoriously difficult to read, he's wrong/right/bad/good/aggressive as any alignment, so I'm just gonna go with "whatever" for now.
Ah, back onto the subject of the easy target... This game is simple.
Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 00:21 Palmar wrote:On December 20 2012 00:18 iamperfection wrote:On December 20 2012 00:13 Eywa- wrote:
I have been running an investigation and, thus far, I have one very strong criminal lead... I always knew I should have taken to law school since it is one of my strong suits. I will surely clear out some time from my evening to bring a full legal report against said citizen. It's really a shame that it comes to something like this, but I am afraid, if you are to murder me in my sleep, then I might as well prevent the death of both myself and all other current and future town members.
i cant believe you say its a shame that you think you found scum but whatever ill be waiting for your case.
I can't believe you care.
And now, we're back...
Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 00:59 Palmar wrote:
So do you think he's scum because of it bugs?
Do you think he's scum? I don't think unless someone else thinks the same thing before I think, otherwise people might not like me.
In conclusion, Palmar is playing the role of "let's not piss anyone off" and "if I were scum, I'd play polar opposite to what I am now"... When in reality, he just can't play
scum and is guilty. I call for lynch on day 1.
##vote PalmarYou've made it obvious buddy, welcome to the big leagues.