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On October 17 2013 07:47 Skanjab1s wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 07:39 I-be-Pro wrote:On October 17 2013 07:32 Skanjab1s wrote:On October 17 2013 07:17 Zaragon wrote: Guess we'll let the Houses trickle out to fuel discussion. There is the off-chance that scum has no one in two whole Houses, too. After my last game, I'm going to be more careful about dismissing something very unlikely prematurely.
I realized something is going to be very confusing: bits of rayn's scum play looks similar to Koshi's town, and their hydra is not particularly stating who is talking (unless I missed them setting up times or something in the pregame). For an early read, them using that ambiguity I'll put down as leaning slightly scum.
skanjab1s is just odd so far, somewhat scummy and/or new; any meta on him? (1) Not new. Odd in what way? (2) Your scumread on raynoshi is just because you don't know who is posting? Thats hardly a reason to think someone scum, especially since they have already stated earlier before the game started that rayn will put his name at the end of his posts. Why do you put so much emphasis on how that's not a reason to think someone's scum instead of putting emphasis on him doing it? It's a valid point you make but the basic idea behind it is completly wrong. I'm pretty sure a lot of people have seen that and yet noone is defending him because you usually don't want to defend other people in their stead; you want to see them defend themselves unless you already know their alignment. You ARE kind of attacking Zaragon but you're making a bigger deal out of defending here. Why? I'm not making a bigger deal out of defending. I'm pointing out the flaws in Zaragon's reasoning behind him thinking that rayn is scum. How can I be making a big deal out of defending the argument of "Rayn is scum because I don't know if rayn or koshi is speaking, even though they have said so before".
Your scumread on raynoshi is just because you don't know who is posting? Thats hardly a reason to think someone scum, especially since they have already stated earlier before the game started that rayn will put his name at the end of his posts. The first one downplays his accusation, the 2nd one downplays his accusation again, the 3rd one is defending.
What I'm saying is I usually like people a lot more when they have a somewhat agressive tone to them. Mafias have a hard time picking sides and accusing people because they have to make shit up. You're lacking the balls to call him out clearly for what he does. I don't mind you pointing out the flaws if you'd use it to attack him but you're just happy stating his flaws.
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Anyways, that's it for me, have to wake up in 7 hours again. Something that might be interesting from my QT or might just be plainly nothing:
Skanjab1s asked if I am I-be-Pro (I called myself Toad in the QT... sry) - nothing wrong with this one at all, despite my recent attacks against him. snowman answered that question with a positive (trying to rephrase here...)
Think he has been reading the thread and is actively lurking atm. Make of that what you want. I don't have the time to type any more tonight, sry.
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On October 17 2013 08:05 Skanjab1s wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 08:01 I-be-Pro wrote: Anyways, that's it for me, have to wake up in 7 hours again. Something that might be interesting from my QT or might just be plainly nothing:
Skanjab1s asked if I am I-be-Pro (I called myself Toad in the QT... sry) - nothing wrong with this one at all, despite my recent attacks against him. snowman answered that question with a positive (trying to rephrase here...)
Think he has been reading the thread and is actively lurking atm. Make of that what you want. I don't have the time to type any more tonight, sry. If you think is nothing wrong with it, then why bother posting it at all? Seems rather pointless, no? It's how I play d1. I make a big deal out of very minor things to make people talk about things happening in the thread instead of talking about politics/house-quests or whatever else. The intention is to get some reactions from people and have a quick start into d1. Some people have to start the discussion somehow and I usually take that as my job on d1.
Means I'm usually a big meanie on d1 and I'm often times stating things that look like nothing to people and they're hardly anything else to me most of the time as well. But I find that a lot better than having a discussion the first 24 hours about some weird plan of someone because people have to commit somewhat the way I'm doing things.
I might add it is currently working but now I'm really sleeping
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On October 17 2013 11:12 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 10:54 yamato77 wrote: also I'm working out the probability of scum being in only 2 houses (where they wouldn't know the members of every house)
just for shits and giggles nvm, fuck this shit, i hate statistics can't sleep.
(0.5^4) would be take on it.
the first 2 are a given because you can't place 2 people in 3 different qt's so you only have to place the other 4 constantly in the QT's that already have one mafia. That's the 0.5^4 part because you have a 50% chance to place someone in 2 out of 4 houses by chance. The "first" two don't mean the real first two but rather the first two that get a different result. So it could be AAABCD meaning the first 2 are A and B, A succeded to get placed in either A, A succeeded to get either placed in A or B, C and D did not.
Super sleepy though.
On a game related note: My role is probably anti-town as fuck. I'm in the same house as Mocsta. I am almost certain there's another anti-town role in our house that I currently have a town-read on. It's a bit of a guess. My role could me incredibly pro-town as well but seems very unlikely to me.
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On October 17 2013 11:38 yamato77 wrote: you can definitely have 2 people in 3 QTs man.
i fucking hate stats no I meant you can't have "Toad and Yamato" distributed in 3 different QTs. Toad and Yamato will either end up in the same QT or in 2 different QT's but never in more than 2 QT's because it's only 2 people, so only the 4 after that matter
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On October 17 2013 17:45 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 17:25 Holyflare wrote: I have a distaste for koshi :/ Apparently it's really obvious when he's playing town or scum but I never see it, it's always spam to me. As for rayn I've only played 1 game with him and he was scum, I would be confident identifying his traits if he displayed them though.
In terms of their posts so far. Toad was being aggressive on Skan and koshi jumped all over him after that, seemed a bit overloaded over something so small. Skan made sense for one or two of his points but there was still a lot of pointless nitpicking going on, on koshi's end.
He kinda went absent after that so not sure if he was around for the rest of the conversations but Skan is also new so his responses are of course going to be flustered, would have assumed koshi would look at something like that instead of being so biased. These thoughts are synonymous with my own. My additions: Koshi surprised me, not with the spam, but the early try-hard "case". Toad is in my house, and said hes in class. I liked Toad nitpicking Supersoft on the our/town thing. But i find it really weird his response to my SAM claim. In the QT/thread he claims to have an anti-town role; but is of the opinion that 3 people in our house could have anti-town roles. That just confuses the fuck out of me. I thought Supersoft assessment was on point for Toad. Hes on hold for now - and is certainly not worth considering. If Pandain wants to give Grack a meta read based on Thug Life. My personal opinion is that Pandain is looking better than he did in Noir. I will give him slight town lean based on meta; and hopefully he can firm that up as the game proceeds. On Yamato: Im at loggerheads. Im pissed he suggested I was scum earlier and am somewhat dismayed by his lack of aura/presence when entering the thread. However, I like his pick-up on Mattchew as I felt the same way. On Syllo: I don't get the feeling from this game that he is interested in solving it/progressing it. The pressure on pandain didn't feel natural; and was dropped too easily/conveniently for my liking. Has anyone here played with Syllo enough to confirm if he is a slow starter?
@the above to explain my last post a little more because I was really sleepy back than. Basicly I'm saying that if you're stating the truth we have 3 anti-town town roles in our house. Let's say we have 1 mafia on top of that in our house. That'd be 2 pro-town roles who are town aligned, 3 anti-town roles who are town aligned and 1 anti-town role who is mafia alinged.
Seemed way too much for me. I think I'm okay with it though as I came to the same conclusion Supersoft has had (on a different matter): The roles were most likely set up before the game started. Having above average anti-town presentation of roles in Slytherin doesn't actually seem that unlikely. Either that or one of my 3 assumtpions is wrong (1) my role is anti-town, 2) you are stating the truth 3) guy #3 is town as well) and I don't want to bother with these assumptions just yet when I have no idea about how to have a go at them yet. That bein said, like I said I'm good with it as of now. It just made me think a little yesterday.
@Yamato: Your main problem with me seems to be that I'm only talking set-up and only following agression other people have put up. That is in fact a blatant misrepresention as the agression on the two people I've followed up so far (SuperSoft and this skan..guy) both times was innitiated by me. Holyflare and Supersoft mentioned that I created discussion and that we had pages of good discussion on those 2 guys (and me I guess). About set-up... you're the one who asked about the likelyhood, so please turn down the hypocrisy a little. I merely answered you while at the same time including a bit, fat On a game related note: to get away from that after answering you. I guess you're right though, I should have just ignored your innitial question and pretended to not have seen it... I did math at university so I kind of like those questions, sry.
@Supersoft As much as I hate his vauge "Toad looks townie but he's super good at mafia so he might just be mafia", this could really be something from town Supersoft because I do get that a lot. Consider your statement about me to be true about you as well, in a way I'm thinking the same about you right now. I got the idea a town Supersoft would be more boasting around how he can read me but I'm fine with it right now, could have changed a little after things like BangBang Mafia On a related note for people who don't know: Supersoft is about massclaimes pretty much every game. He did the same in BangBang (and was town) and I'm pretty sure he wanted some mason massclaim in another game as well. He really likes massclaimes in general.
@Syllo He is a guy who posts very little but posts incredibly good when he's posting. I see the very little. I'm sometimes seeing good I'm not really seeing the very good just yet. I always get the feeling that unlike me, he's on point when talking. He's not a boxxy-esque guy who just chats about what goes through his mind. If he's posting there's a reason for why he is. To me the ratio is a little off right now but it's d1 so I'll let that slide. There's no way I'll consider lynching Syllo d1 without a fricking good reason.
Just finished reading what I missed last night and those are the things that I saw that could be answered without starting something "new". Going to reread some
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On October 17 2013 21:45 supersoft wrote: hehe yes you fooled me in that game where we talked about burgers and you surrendered day2 :D and lol. i just thought about a massclaim in my QT :D seriously :D you remember that game where marv was picking on you based on something along the lines of (not an actual quote):
"Supersoft tells the thread to not chit chat all the time and focus things but here we can see a barrage of chit chat with toad" ? I was mafia and got in the thread defending you based on something along the lines of "yeah but Supersoft and I have beef going on. That always happens when we're in the same game, as can be seen here *link to game with talk about WorldCup* and so on". And you were all friendly with me and I liked that as mafia.
As town it's giving me the creeps right now.
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I kind of agree with LA's take on yamato btw. That's about what I wrote earlier in our QT when he asked about our opinion about yamato. I basicly told him that what yamato does, does sound like testing the waters (that was my term I used in the QT he used in here, as you guys probably know because it's a term I frequently use), he is hypocritical and he is very emotional. However while that's all things I don't like and the first one is something I consider scummy I really don't see him playing that way as mafia after fruity
A townie can be hypocritical as well and Yamato has been mad about me. I think he even stated that in another thread + Show Spoiler +Champions mafia stating he never got lynched d1, marv said "yeah you did - fruity d1", yamato said "well that doesn't count because toad was a bitch" so that one is mostly striking me as annoying but not exactly alignment indicating. The testing water thing makes him scummy in my books because he's the unsecure kind of guy as mafia, both as not posting too much and as in actually being unsecure and that IS a sign of being unsecure. Him being emotional fits both plays. He could be trying to paint over his unsecureness if he's mafia or he could just plainly be emotional right now, which would be a towntell, so it's a null.
All in all I have a slight scumread on Yamato based on what I see in this thread that is at least nullified, if not even going into a slight town read at this point based on the fact that while posting crap he actually is posting, which is something mafia-Yamato usually has a problem with. I stated that I'd have to reread recent games on Yamato in our QT before saying more about that because fruity was a while ago and I haven't done that yet but it's a nice thing to see someone come to the same conclusion.
Anyways, now that I posted this wall-of-text might as well put it in here as well. I'm going back to my parents place, so I'll be afk for the next 3 or so hours and I just completed signing up for my courses this semester (deadline was today in 55 minutes), which is the reason for my most recent "lurking", being in irc and all but not being in here posting. Later
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On October 18 2013 01:19 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2013 00:52 LastArgument wrote: I can't think of an occasion in the last however long that a self-aware miller didn't claim on Day 1.
And they were certainly never lynched for it. Mattchew was lynched...about a year ago due to a self-aware claim day1. Sidenote, get your vote off me or re-explain why im scum.
Show nested quote +On October 18 2013 01:00 yamato77 wrote: Also, if anyone wants to comment on the waffle from Toad, I'd like some other perspectives. [big] Short answer is he sees a bunch of null tells and a couple town tells. ergo you're a townread. Grats.
Palmar, you're not much for discussing closed setups iirc, but what do you make of Yamato and Mattchew outing their QT playerlists (Top of page 25)? If you'd rather not comment on this, can you do something other than sit and wait on mocsta's return?
In other news, we're on track to policy lynch someone. Will it be the lurker, the troll, or the claimed self-aware miller? [/b]
Yes that's the short answer. The short message trimmed down to what's important would be:
I do understand why ska...-whatever is saying what he's saying and I'd agree with him if it wasn't Yamato we're talking about. The post about Yamato is about Yamato but more about the fact that I actually like ska....'s posting ever since he took the break and clamed down a little. I do like his case despite me disagreeing with it because of my game I played with Yamato so far.
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On October 18 2013 03:07 Pandain wrote: Given the fact Palmar isn't going to do shit without X happening he's good chance of scum. Also I haven't played with him in forever but isn't he good on day one and nail people? I haven't finished catching up yet so no idea what you're talking about but yes, Palmar is usually very focused on d1. He has a somewhat gut-feeling-approach (not really but if you want to compare it with people like syllo it is) to it and his d1 reads are incredibly good most of the times unlike other vets that don't do a lot early on and become stronger later on (rad, foolish come to mind for example).
d1 is when palmar is better than the average vet. Not that he's hitting everything on d1 but he's really good when there's still chaos going on.
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Yamato you're being an asshole, more than I ever was in fruity, try to keep it down a little.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=431052¤tpage=34#668 3 posts in a row: The first one iss somewhat decent, at least it's not horrible, The 2nd one is a "lol wall of text that I haven't read but I want to post about it!"-twoliner that, if I had to guess, has no other purpose than to diss me as in "lol Toad so stupid" without any explanation or anything else to it. The 3rd one is somewhat decent although completly wrong. You were hypocritic when you told me I'm speaking about set-up when you were the person that asked about set-up and I only answered your question... Want me to go back and quote it? You were talking set-up a lot more than anyone else in the thread in the first 12 hours. And it follows up with "That post reeks" without any explanation, thus you're emotional and I don't think I have to argue that at all seeing how you kept on posting the next couple of pages.
Calm down, try to explain yourself or stop posting for the sake of telling people how mad you are about someone or something.
I'm telling you this because I sadly still thinking you're likely to be town and that you think you're doing good when you're really not, so keep it in mind.
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Supersoft, quick question for you, sry too lazy to search for it: Who's in your QT again?
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On October 18 2013 03:42 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2013 03:35 I-be-Pro wrote: Supersoft, quick question for you, sry too lazy to search for it: Who's in your QT again? Ravenclaw: Onegu, syllogism, LastArgument, Tunkeg, supersoft, yamato77 anything interesting about Onegu, LA and Tunkeg in your QT happening? Can't judge Onegu and Tunkeg at all so far, got a good idea about LA.
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and there goes the BH speculation about me. How are things BH, have you read anything yet or do you have to catch up?
Getting a neutral point of view from people is always interesting, so if you already read the thread on your own and are willing to chat gogo!
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deadline is in 24,5 hours if I'm not terribly mistaken btw
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I like the Cephiro vote. Guy is usually a really quircky ##grab tornado-guy who's funny and all that shit. Not the most collected guy, certainly can't handle being mafia and is overwhelmed by it everytime I saw him play mafia either in IRC or in here. He usually was overwhelmed as town as well, he's posting a bunch more and doesn't make a lot of sense as town as well but I don't see that yet. Not enough wtf, my Toad-check came back as "I AM YOUR FATHER", he must be mafia because that's a common mafia role"
##vote Ceph
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On October 18 2013 05:05 Pandain wrote: He's been making posts I really like in thread.
He got super frustrated with me and Rayn for reasons I can see and appreciate now, and would have to have been a forced mindset if he was scum. Took it really personal.
Apparently he was just too busy in life and didn't want to make a post yet in thread. QTs were more relaxed to him and a post in the thread would have been too definitive a statement when he wasn't really sure on everything going on.
I'm pretty surprised at the plethora of people voting him who aren't in Gryffindor as he hasn't said anything then, right?
Toad, why are you deciding on a man you haven't seen any posts of instead of doing actual analysis.
A random lynch isn't going to gain traction and it shouldn't gain traction almost everyone has posted so far and it's a game that should be decided through analysis not random voting. Furthermore I have a soft town read on Rayne/Koshi, Koshi's posts were Koshi town and apparently Rayne agrees with my views which means even if he's scum he's working into my favor.
I love StorrZerg's last post and he's town in my eyes.
Which leaves these people: Sn0 Vayne Echelon Mattchew Onegu Tunkeg Palmar I-be-Pro Stutters JAT.
Palmar doesn't fit into this list and is playing like his scum self. I don't like how he's attempting to hide information he has from the rest of the thread and hoping to get a last minute bandwagon, if even that. He seems sure Mocsta is scum and yet is waiting for a response, which indicates he wouldn't be sure Mocsta is scum. His play is flawed, illogical, and seems calculated and he should be voted.
This is the same playstyle Palmar did in Thug Life where he acted aloof and distant. If Palmar wasn't a vet, he would be auto-lynched and the reputation Palmar has in this game suggests that he's playing exactly opposite of how he would want to as town.
There are simply too many variables to make me believe Palmar is town.
FoS on I-be-Pro for voting Ceph
long story short: Like I said, I was really busy today with the 3 hour trainride, didn't sleep a lot because I stayed up until 4m yesterday when I had to wake up at 7am again to get to my math classes comming home to an empty fridge and all that so I haven't realy done anything today due to that and me being sleepy as fuck when it's only 22:00 over here. (Explaining what moeboats are to Oats in irc for 45 minutes straight didn't help either )
A bunch of people I might have considered voteable are unvoteable d1 due to my role so I'm going for someone I know really well because we hang out in irc a lot, because I feel comfortable reading him in a short amount of time due to that restriction of mine.
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On October 18 2013 05:09 Pandain wrote: The people who contributed greatly earlier on in the thread were:
Hopeless Last Argument Skanjabs Yamato
I have town reads on all of these people and others, upon analyzing them, should confirm/deny this from their own perspective.
I also would like it if someone took the time to summarize their House QT for the thread.
I don't agree with hopeless at all. Neither sskanjabs nor yamato have contributed anything, they've posted but yeah, they're most likely town.
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On October 18 2013 05:24 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2013 05:16 I-be-Pro wrote:On October 18 2013 05:05 Pandain wrote: He's been making posts I really like in thread.
He got super frustrated with me and Rayn for reasons I can see and appreciate now, and would have to have been a forced mindset if he was scum. Took it really personal.
Apparently he was just too busy in life and didn't want to make a post yet in thread. QTs were more relaxed to him and a post in the thread would have been too definitive a statement when he wasn't really sure on everything going on.
I'm pretty surprised at the plethora of people voting him who aren't in Gryffindor as he hasn't said anything then, right?
Toad, why are you deciding on a man you haven't seen any posts of instead of doing actual analysis.
A random lynch isn't going to gain traction and it shouldn't gain traction almost everyone has posted so far and it's a game that should be decided through analysis not random voting. Furthermore I have a soft town read on Rayne/Koshi, Koshi's posts were Koshi town and apparently Rayne agrees with my views which means even if he's scum he's working into my favor.
I love StorrZerg's last post and he's town in my eyes.
Which leaves these people: Sn0 Vayne Echelon Mattchew Onegu Tunkeg Palmar I-be-Pro Stutters JAT.
Palmar doesn't fit into this list and is playing like his scum self. I don't like how he's attempting to hide information he has from the rest of the thread and hoping to get a last minute bandwagon, if even that. He seems sure Mocsta is scum and yet is waiting for a response, which indicates he wouldn't be sure Mocsta is scum. His play is flawed, illogical, and seems calculated and he should be voted.
This is the same playstyle Palmar did in Thug Life where he acted aloof and distant. If Palmar wasn't a vet, he would be auto-lynched and the reputation Palmar has in this game suggests that he's playing exactly opposite of how he would want to as town.
There are simply too many variables to make me believe Palmar is town.
FoS on I-be-Pro for voting Ceph
long story short: Like I said, I was really busy today with the 3 hour trainride, didn't sleep a lot because I stayed up until 4m yesterday when I had to wake up at 7am again to get to my math classes comming home to an empty fridge and all that so I haven't realy done anything today due to that and me being sleepy as fuck when it's only 22:00 over here. (Explaining what moeboats are to Oats in irc for 45 minutes straight didn't help either ) A bunch of people I might have considered voteable are unvoteable d1 due to my role so I'm going for someone I know really well because we hang out in irc a lot, because I feel comfortable reading him in a short amount of time due to that restriction of mine. But he hasn't posted anything in thread. [...]
And if you read my post about him you'll see how that is exactly why I'd be okay with lynching him. He is a very quirky guy who doesn't give a shit about wether he's right or not, or wether he's catched up on the thread or wether he understood something someone else said, he'll comment on that either way. He'll look overwhelmed and won't make sense but he'll comment on it.
As mafia he is overwhelmed in the fashion I see happening here. Not posting at all, being scared to come out in the open and all that. I don't see a reason at all why he should be fine to discuss in his QT but won't do so in here if he was a townie (especially considering who he is).
I don't like the palmar lynch d1 out of nowhere despite me not liking Palmar right now. That can wait and I completly agree with Syllo, most people who are being active make a terrible target atm, maybe with the exception of hopeless but I seem to be the only one thinking that his "helpfulness" is faked or for the sake of posting. So yeah Cephiro lynch makes an awful lot of sense here.
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