I have read a few threads and would like to give online mafia a try
Newbie Mini Mafia LII
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have read a few threads and would like to give online mafia a try | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't know if that is what 'clues' refers to, sorry | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
We are currently looking for coaches. Coaches will provide a brief post-game analysis to their assigned players with tips for improvement. From everyone's messages I wanted to make sure, we will also be able to talk to coaches during the game right? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
http://bit.ly/1dxgIP8 | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST). So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering. When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line. That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided. Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy - Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think OnceKing's points are 1) Post is long 2) Criticism re: not playing before 3) Criticism re: claiming town 4) Criticism re: playtime 5) Inactives / not voting I think I touched on a few of these in my last post, but let me ask this - Regarding playing before, don't you think that is relevant to the game? Your last post even mentions that it is relevant this is a newbie game. I still think it is scummy that you wanted to suggest voting me but decided not to until someone else did, first. This early in the game I think we should post our suspicions as they arise. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 17 2014 05:59 Cavalinho wrote: I townread OnceKing, because he's posting his thoughts without fear. Hell, he even brought up what I wanted to bring up, so I see no point to view him as scum at this point if we think the exact same way. I see no point in scumreading anyone that shares the same viewpoint as I do about something so suspect and out of place so early. Any other post probably would have brought me around to vote you, had I not finally come out and made my suspicions clear before anyway. Also, you say it's scummy to suggest voting you but I should post my suspicion as it arises. How is it that I'm scummy for saying that I think you're scum? Should I just never vote on my suspicions? Should I just ignore my suspicions if someone else shares the same sentiment as I do? Your argument has holes in it and really only seems to be poking at the fact that I'm supposedly bandwagoning. On February 17 2014 05:38 Cavalinho wrote: Because, quite frankly, I wasn't sure if I should have pursued your post due to this actually being a newbie game. I wasn't sure if real players would actually think like that in a gametype that emphasize newness. But since I'm not the only one that thinks it, then I'm going to roll with the fact that this is probably the right path to go down. I don't think it is scummy that you voted for me But, it is scummy that you said you wanted to suggest vote for me. You posted after mine, yet your post did not address mine at all. You only raised the point after someone else had voted, then bandwagoned without providing anything comments on my post or OnceKing's post. It is scummy that your reason for not acting is that it is a newbie game. It seems to me there's all the more reason to raise suspicions in a game where players are inexperienced - we will not have as much skill making our own reads. It is worrying to me that you wouldn't raise a point just because someone else hasn't raised it - is that something you intend to keep doing in this game? My preference is that we all provide our scumreads ASAP. Incidentally, you didn't respond to my comment regarding game experience. I think our experience playing/watching mafia is important. If you felt we wouldn't grasp your thoughts is that its a newbie game, clearly you also feel experience is relevant. I think opening posts should provide this information so we can evaluate each other with as much information as we can obtain. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
What do you think the other posts d1 contributed? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Cavalinho: Let's start here. As I said earlier, I think his suggestion that he wanted to vote for me but didn't act on it is scummy. What makes it worse is this post, where he does something similar: On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote:What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him. Again, Cavalinho says he had a thought or analysis, but didn't act on it. He doesn't say what points he agreed or disagreed with, and is attempting to align himself with another player without offering anything. I read players that bandwagon without providing reasons as more likely to be mafia than noncontributing players. If Beneather or n1k0 provide a post with nothing more than a vote, I would raise the same criticism about them. Idle players are good when we lack information, but when someone acts scummy and continues to act scummy they take a higher priority. But, it gets worse for Cavalinho. First he said he wanted to vote for me before the first vote. Then, he said he was probably on the right track. Then he said he considered Lord Tolkein, but decided he should still go after me. Then, you get this: On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote:There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads. If Cavalinho wanted more reads, this was the absolute wrong way to end the post. He should be pressuring the people he wants reads from. I see this post as trying to appear unsure - I think it's clear that my number one suspicion was on him, so when I flip town it'll look bad for him, so this is an opportunity to start looking for someone he can target on day 2. This is hedging his bets and it isn't doing anything for town. IAmRobik: I have a slight scum read on him because of the ambiguity of his post. On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? It doesn't say he agrees or disagrees. And, he doesn't follow up on his question at all. I think he should explain his posts and provide some analysis or at least weigh in on one side or the other for my post.. LordTolkein: This post concerned me On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters. If you are town, it should be super relevant whether I am mafia. I've given some explanation of my playstyle and I'm the focus of day 1. If you are town, you should be wondering about my side because it may be the only information you get going into day 2. If you are town, why are you willing to enter the next day with as little information as you have? This is at worst a scumslip, and at best it's the wrong attitude to have. I don't want to base too much off this comment, but it made him lean scum for me. OnceKing: I discussed OnceKing somewhat earlier. In summary, although he is voting for me and I am town, I think he's at least directed town toward some useful discussion and provided reasoning. More importantly, he's followed that up by pressuring for thoughts of other players. I don't like that he is leading a lynch on me, but and I think he has selectively misinterpreted my posts twice. But as I said before I think this is town-favored play because it has helped conversation.. theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho & Beneather, [b]n1ko[b/]: Nothing to read yet. I would also like to know what they think of Cavalinho since I fingered him in response. I'd also like to know whether they can commit to being more active in the coming days because right now we have no information to use. Regardless of whether you agree with me, I think you should at least be dissatisfied with the contributions you have gotten from most of town today. I hope you do not vote me, I will certainly keep on contributing while I am alive. Hopefully I can persuade you to change your minds to avoid a mislynch. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
##Vote: Cavalinho I saw a few more things to comment on above so I'll write something on those now. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
##Vote: Cavalinho | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: I've a strong town read on Cavalinho, I really like his posts and the reasoning he's put into them, especially where he goes over the scenarios in which Amiko flips. He's really put himself out there trying to help town, even going as far as quoting one of the guides on TL to support his read on Amiko. After reading through Cavalinho's and OnceKing's posts, I'm starting to be a bit more convinced that Amiko is scum, however with so many inactives I will wait until they start posting more before casting my vote. Scum have a huge incentive to hide right now if Amiko is town. I think Cavalinho's analysis of the flips is off and you should not like these scenarios. On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote: A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather. I think #1 makes some sense because Mafia doesn't know when starting a vote whether town would follow. This is why I don't feel that OnceKing voting me reflects any scumminess. But, Mafia have every incentive to join in the vote on a non-mafia player. Right now mafia should be encouraging the idea that I am the only vote for today, or that the vote is decided at this point. That's why this post by Tolkein is troubling: On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters. ##vote Amiko Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town I'm not advocating a vote for Tolkein right now, but that post is encouraging the idea that the day is already over. Even if you think I'm the scummiest player, you should be pressuring other players to give their logic and explaining your reasoning so that town has more information for the following day. In other words, mafia shouldn't be hiding among the inactives, they should be actively trying to close the deal on me. Basically, Cavalinho and I entirely disagree. He thinks mafia are either the leaders, or uninvolved in the vote. I think mafia have the most to gain by encouraging an incorrect vote. On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote: B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early. I won't flip red so I don't see much point in commenting on this. But, I do agree it's unlikely mafia would bus when there are probably 2-3 mafia in the game. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
OnceKing’s comments on Lord Tolkien (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20816932) Although I’ve indicated I dislike Tolkien’s post earlier, I felt yesterday that I wished for more to go on. OnceKing’s points made me take another look at him. It’s tough. I agree with most of OnceKing’s points on Lord Tolkien, but disagree with a few: (1) I still think experience is a useful metric. Though, I grant that I haven’t found much use for it yet in this game. (2) I don’t understand why commenting on the game setup is something scummy/towny. OnceKing mentions it with a (meh) so I’m not sure which way he leans on the issue. I see this as neutral, I think - we can only guess at which town and mafia roles are in the game, but I think it’s at least educated guessing. (3) I don’t put much into his highlighting the “(newbie)” comment made by Tolkien. I also see this as neutral. Re-evaluating Lord Tolkien OnceKing did make me look into Lord Tolkien more in this post. I do have at least one thing to add: In this post, Tolkien says he won’t speculate on night actions. On February 17 2014 14:38 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill. But, this earlier post is doing just that: On February 17 2014 08:45 Lord Tolkien wrote: Just thought of something. The other option is if Amiko flips green or blue, and two of the (currently) three people advocating the lynch are red. Mafia will probably kill the non-red active player at night, and from what it currently stands, the two can lead the town into a self-lynching orgy. Also possible. I'm leaning towards there being 2 mafia, but it's also possible that there's 3 (highly unlikely I think given only 9 players, but possible?). We'll see. I see this as somewhat scummy because it is inconsistent – why will he comment on night actions in one post but not another? On February 17 2014 16:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: How about this: if you guys do and I turn up green or blue, you guys lynch OnceKing? Because I'm now pretty sure you're scum after this post, and a town for a mafia is a pretty sure trade. I get the point he is making here, but I don’t really like this play. As someone who was just accused a lot, it never occurred to me to offer myself as today’s lynch in exchange for killing someone else tomorrow. So, I see this as a strange statement. Frankly, neither of these posts are damning. I see them as unusual plays, but I know I’m still feeling my own playstyle out. I want to reread IAmRobik and Valenius’ more recent posts, but these comments make me like lynching Tolkien as an alternative to Cavalinho would be acceptable though not ideal. OnceKing’s Rescind on Me I wish I had more to say on this. If OnceKing is mafia, he does have a little to gain by unvoting me because I have said (and at least for now, will continue to say) that I read him as town. So, it is possible that he is pocketing me as someone who trusts him. If he’s mafia, this also gives him some credibility, because if I were voted off I would flip town, and some players might question him as the person who led the initial lynch on me. Right now I do not think OnceKing is mafia, but I think it is important to analyze what he gains or loses. Beneather (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817073) The above post is all I think I can use for analysis. There’s not much to say, but here goes- I don’t like that he opens by saying he doesn’t think Tolkien is scum, but the remainder of the post seems to argue (or suggest, since it doesn’t come down very hard) that he finds Tolkien scummy. He points to the troubling Tolkien post and mentions he does not understand why Tolkien thinks I am scummy. I don’t have much to say about his scenario where I live and Tolkein is shot/potentially a veteran. I see this post as more noncommittal than scummy. I at least want to see Beneather commit more. Beneather, if you don’t think Tolkien is scum, is there anything you see as weighing against him as town? Beneather, what comments do you think are scummiest in the game so far? Your comments at the end of your post seem to suggest you want to leave me and Tolkein alive – who would you lynch? Cavalinho’s Response to OnceKing (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817116) I don’t think we waste time by attacking each other. We are giving town things to talk about and analysis they can agree or disagree with. At the least, we have given town reads and interactions between ourselves and the rest of town that they can use. I hope that my activity will help everyone see me as town, but (as I said earlier) I think the best thing that’s come from the attacks on me is that town is starting to actively analyze things. ------ I need to re-read the posts by Valenius and IAmRobik, I’ll try to post some comments on those next. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 17 2014 14:06 Cavalinho wrote: I think it's ridiculous that I'm getting looked at as possible mafia because I agree with someone else's analysis. (For the record, I agree with all of what you said about it. Just in case this comes up again.) To explain my reasoning on Cavalinho a little better, this is the kind of direct post I was looking for earlier. As I am looking at everyone in this thread, I want people to tell me what they agree or do not agree with. I don't see the post as important. But I wanted to at least try to clarify to Cavalinho why I think most of us found his followup vote so scummy in case he is town. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I wanted to include a little comment on him since recent posts have given more to analyze. I think theDragoon makes good points when discussing Tolkien. I didn’t think of it earlier, but I like the questions he asked Tolkien, specifically where he questions (1) why Tolkien suggests he stuck his neck out and (2) questions him on OnceKing moving his vote from me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817275). I’ll talk more about Robik below, but I felt theDragoon’s post here was the exact right town response – Robik is taking some positions, but they seem off to me and there’s insufficient explanation. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819793). I would have liked to see theDragoon respond more as to what he agrees or disagrees with in Robik’s post, but it’s a start. Based on this I’m seeing theDragoon as slightly town. IAmRobik I like his posts even though we reached different conclusions. It seems to me IAmRobik has provides explanations for his actions when asked when questioned by me and OnceKing, and I’m glad he picked up in activity over the past few hours. I commented on this post earlier, but I want to clarify one thing- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? This post got raised a few times. I just wanted to say again, I think it is too ambiguous to use one way or another. It could mean IAmRobik is impressed with OnceKing’s argument – as in, “that’s a hell of an argument, I’m impressed, have you done this before.” Or it could mean it as a defense of me – as in, “that argument seems too good to come from a new player.” I didn’t read the post strongly one way or the other, and I think his answer makes sense. I read him as more townsided at this time. I disagree with his read on Cavalinho. Valenius I read his filter but I really don’t come away with anything I think is helpful to highlight and have to get back to work. I’ll try to take another look tonight if I'm not occupied with Cavalinho. -- Cavalinho: I just saw your last post, I'll put a quick post in response in a few minutes | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 18 2014 06:38 Cavalinho wrote: Except nobody found it scummy except for two people. Almost every single other player in the game has a townread on me. Stop talking as if everyone shares the same views that you do, because they obviously don't. You aren't even saying anything in this post. You say it's direct and that it matters, and then you're saying it doesn't matter. Explain your scumread. Do it now. Stop beating around the bush and looking for things you can twist. I have to work for a few hours, but if you want to go back and forth more I can try to go over it 3-4 hours from now. Here's the best summary I can provide for you. In exchange, I would appreciate if you provide comments on my two above posts. Tell us what you agree with and what you don't agree with. That's what you need to do to to help town. The post I made noted that you (finally) provided at least some direct explanation of your vote for me because you explained you agreed with OnceKing. If it helps, the bolded statement above is a concise explanation of why I scumread you. It is in mafia's interest to encourage voting for a town player. However, they don't want to stand out or draw attention. If they succeed, the player will flip town and people will question their logic because there is proof they were wrong. In my view, this game moved from mostly meaningless day 1 voting to a game when OnceKing voted for me. He provided reasons for his vote that made it carry actual weight. In doing so, he started a vote on a town player. Your post bandwagoned him without any meaningful commitment. I think it could be summarized as "me too" - when I flip town, you didn't provide anything that would incriminate yourself. Your post leaves you a lot of room: you can later say you weren't sure, or you agreed with OnceKing regarding discussing experience, but not about post length, or whatever suits your fancy. In addition, you pretend that you had the idea beforehand, which I see as an attempt to align yourself with OnceKing without offering anything yourself. You then make a very similar move where you indicate you were rethinking voting for me. Again, it doesn't offer anything except seeming to align yourself with a player without committing. If you thought through a player, you should be providing your reasoning (just as you are asking of me). You also have indicated a few times that you want to scumhunt. But, I don't see you actively pressuring anyone. I also dislike like that you read IAmRobik's comment as defending me when I read it as ambiguous/weird. I wrote this hastily, so I'm sorry for points I missed or did not address adequately. If you want to understand my reasons for suspecting you, you'll find them better explained by reading my filter. Your section is in bold, and I think it's longer than everyone else's I'll finish with this thought - I don't really think you and I are getting anywhere with this discussion and I'd rather spend time looking at other people. I'd like to see you lynched, but a lot of town doesn't - hopefully I can convince them that you are town in the coming days, or maybe you can convince me you are town with your play. To do that, please provide analysis, scumhunt, and when you vote make sure it's clear why. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Cavalinho 2) Lord Tolkien 3) maybe n1k0, maybe IAmRobik, maybe Valenius. Not sure. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Sorry out of time, I'll respond to cavalinho later since I have to go, expect me in a few hours | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
-------------- On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote: Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole. In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing. I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself. But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia. I think your insults are not appropriate, and if we are alive tomorrow please do not continue them. We're playing a game together. It's a logic game where we don't have perfect information. It's a newbie game. I am not going to play perfectly. If I'm town and mistaken, it is your imperative to convince me that I'm wrong. What I asked you for was this: On February 18 2014 07:56 Amiko wrote: In exchange, I would appreciate if you provide comments on my two above posts. Tell us what you agree with and what you don't agree with. That's what you need to do to to help town. As I see it, you asked me to restate why I was suspicious of you. I did. My expectation is that you would go through the points, or at least try to convince me of something. Instead you ignored the content, so I guess I wasted my time. I asked you to please give analysis on my comments in the prior posts. You ignored that request, too. I'll also mention that I feel I've been pretty fair when I comment on your posts. I opened one post saying: On February 17 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat I also point out that I agree with one point you make regarding red flips On February 17 2014 13:03 Amiko wrote: I won't flip red so I don't see much point in commenting on this. But, I do agree it's unlikely mafia would bus when there are probably 2-3 mafia in the game. I haven't presented everything you say as scummy. But, you haven't given me what I need to see you as town. ---- I have more to say on Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 which I will put in the next post. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
There's four things to note: 1) Currently, Cavalinho is set to be lynched. 2) Cavalinho voted for n1k0. 3) Cavalinho is the only vote on n1k0. 4) Cavalinho posted that he would not change his vote from n1k0. On February 18 2014 08:42 Cavalinho wrote: And I'm not changing my vote. I'm staying on N1k0 until the end of today. -- I read Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 as townsided (with one caveat). Basically, this post locks him into a vote on a player without any votes. If his goal is merely surviving, why not put his vote on someone who has a vote on him (Robik, Tolkien, OnceKing)? I am not surprised he didn't vote for OnceKing. His has just recently said that he agreed with all of OnceKing's first reads when OnceKing voted me, so it would be pretty questionable to challenge him now. However, I think he could have moved his vote to Tolkien and Robik without as much attention. He posted here that he had concerns about both players: On February 17 2014 14:06 Cavalinho wrote: I'm actually getting very frustrated with the way this is going, because I can't sit down and get reads from anyone since I'm defending my views every other post I make. Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik, I have people doubting the fact that I'm town since I'm focused on getting one lynch done today and looking at these other people in the mean time. (And also, Tolkein's disinterest in who gets lynched today is very concerning. I know I suggested him slightly before, but if we aren't going to go after Amiko, then I suggest either IAmRobik or Lord Tolkein.) He reasserts that the three of us are his primary scumreads again here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=9#168). So, why didn't he move his vote to someone who had some traction from another player? I wouldn't even think it's that important, but he even commits to not changing his vote on n1k0. This essentially is tying his own hands - if he's mafia, he loses the ability to move his vote to either Robik or Tolkien if they get a second vote, thereby saving himself. Well, he could still change his vote, but he'd look really scummy. So, I do think the vote on n1k0 reflects some towniness. There is one caveat I'll mention which I do think is neutral or scummy. Cavalinho has argued that the case on him is bogus. But, then he argues that n1k0 did the same thing as him, so n1k0 is scummy. If Cavlainho seeks his actions and n1k0's actions as similar, I think it's illogical to say n1k0 is scummy but he is not. In other words n1k0's actions -> similar to Cavalinho's actions n1k0's actions -> scummy to Cavalinho Cavalinho's actions -> not at all scummy to Cavalinho | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins. Robik - I just figured you were joking with that post so I didn't really comment on it. On February 18 2014 11:25 Lord Tolkien wrote: Read above Amiko. :o IAmRobik's also voted for him. That came in while I was typing. It makes me feel a little better :3 I guess if Cavalinho is mafia, it's possible his vote on n1k0 wasn't as townsided if he knew a mafia partner would join his vote. But, I would tend to think two mafia wouldn't be wiling to be the only two people on someone. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think it's clear I was the most outspoken against Cavalinho. I was wrong, though I think I provided a lot of my analysis on him so I hope you understand why I reached that conclusion. I'm not certain what to read into the votes, but here's one line of analysis to offer up. I would like comments on what I write, but what I would like more is to see someone else try to give some comments on the votes. -- Tolkien seemed to read him as town in the following posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20813953 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20814229 However, he does note he is suspicious of Cavalinho in this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821031 theDragoon stated he had a strong town read on Cavalinho here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20816693 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257 IAmRobik stated a strong town read on Cavalinho in these posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819310 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819462 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819671 n1k0: Reads Cavalinho as more likely to be red here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819851 Valenius: Reads Cavalinho as more town here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820162 OnceKing I don't think he weighs in too strongly one way or the other, but does seem to lean scum here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821149 Beneather No comments re: Cavalinho --- So, theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius read Cavalinho as town/very town. So, I want to look at why they didn’t move their vote to someone else to avoid Cavalinho being lynched and if the play was consistent. I’ll mention each of the three for completeness’ sake, but I think IAmRobik is the only one that gives me ground for suspicion. theDragoon seems consistent. Valenius doesn't give me enough to make a read. theDragoon only could have saved Cavalinho by voting for n1k0. He voted for Lord Tolkein theDragoon does have a slight scumread of n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), but that’s all I see on him. I can’t say his vote was inconsistent based on this. Valenius Valenius could have saved Cavalino by voting for Tolkein or n1k0. Valenius reads Tolkein as town here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20815145 I didn’t see anything else on the two. Valenius doesn’t say any read of n1k0 either way – he does draw n1k0 into posting, at least. I can’t say much for him either. -- So, this is one I would like some responses to, particularly from IAmRobik. IAmRobik IAmRobik could have saved Cavalinho by voting for Tolkein. IAmRobik states dislike for Tolkein in the following post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819400 More importantly, he also lists Tolkein as his #2 scummiest and lists Cavalinho as his most town (after himself) in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819671 On the one hand, IAmRobik did vote for the person he thought was the scummiest, so I think there is consistency. But, I think if I were in IAmRobik’s position, I would have considered changing my vote to Tolkein to preserve my most town and lynch my second most mafia. What do you guys think? The other thing I'll say is, tomorrow I really think we need to narrow our focus on a smaller group of people. If the highest vote count for anyone is only two people, we are too split. Mafia's votes can affect the result too much, and there's no clear direction town is taking. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I do agree with you about the vote splits, though, we can't really look at a bandwagon because of the vote splits. Your vote is the only thing that's really struck me so far, but I might try to take another approach later and see if it goes anywhere. theDragoon Happy birthday theDragoon! Let's play pin the tail on the mafia at your party :3 On February 18 2014 15:00 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko I felt like I had a better scum read on LT than I had for n1k0. I asked Cav about why he had such a strong feel for n1k0 scum but he didn't return in time to answer. At this point LT is still my top scum read but I really would've liked if Cav answered my question in time to give me some light on his thoughts on n1k0. Fair enough. I included the discussion of theDragoon and Valenius because I went through the analysis on all three, but only IAmRobik's actions struck me as questionable. If all three had votes that seemed inconsistent it might be less remarkable. Formals I don't really like the 'formal' idea from Tolkien. I am worried that it would let people direct the conversation too much. I do think we need to focus more in day 2. But, I'm not really convinced the system you suggested is the best way. I think if someone posts a strong case, town will (hopefully) examine that case and decide where they lie. Since there are still some people with very few comments, I think we should make them comment more. On that vein, n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here: 1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why? 2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote? 3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? Please remember, if your post says you read someone as very town, it may be better to wait until day 2 to post. -- Does anyone else have any analysis we can try to take from the votes? If you want to wait until day that's alright, I'll try to read and respond once I get home. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours. Who did you think would switch? Where did you think they would switch to? On February 18 2014 11:07 IAmRobik wrote: I wanted to see if anyone put n1k0 in their town list after I said the above, but no one did. My opinion on n1k0 hadn't changed before of that post, nor did I think that he was town based off of the fact that no one posted after his one post. I still think he's scummy and think he's one of the better lynches for today ##vote: n1k0 What made you change your view of n1k0 as scummy and one of the better lynches of the day to an obvious mafia? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 19 2014 13:49 Lord Tolkien wrote: Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well. Basically, because of the vote split, anyone could have voted to save Cavalinho by moving their vote (including Cavalinho! Actually, I'll put a quick comment on that below). So, I only looked at the three people who I felt gave a stronger town read on Cavalinho (theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius) so could reasonably be expected to try to vote to save him. For you, I felt your read was somewhat town, somewhat scum, so it wasn't inconsistent for you to vote against him. I wanted to get some reads off of Robik's response because I did think it was weird he didn't move his vote and therefore suspicious. Frankly, I figured it was just that he hadn't considered the possibility, but it was a good thing to pressure him on. That might sound like under-reading Robik, but this is why I mention Cavalinho's vote again. Cavalinho could have saved himself by moving his vote (to Tolkien) and he didn't. If I were in his position, I think I would have moved my vote to Tolkien - Cavalinho knew he was town and didn't know Tolkien's alignment. In other words, Cavalinho didn't play as he should have from his point of view, but it seems likely that's just because he didn't read how tied votes worked. -- I'll go through the rest of your post tomorrow afternoon Tolkien and try see if anything in Robik's activity brings me more to think about. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I wanted to see how people responded to my point on Robik's vote to press reads, then point to Cavalinho's play to explain why I didn't read Robik's vote as a strongly scummy. But maybe the comments would have indicated something. Writing this really reaffirms my feeling that we need to ensure we have a less split vote today. When there's only 1-2 votes on people, a single vote can spare almost anyone, and mafia probably has at least two votes to use. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Focus for Today I mentioned a few times that I thought it was best if we try to focus on a few people today to avoid vote manipulation. Currently the focus seems to be on Valenius, n1k0, and Beneather. I am pretty sure I have come out with a strong read on any of these three yet because they haven’t said as much, so I’m happy with this focus and will try to give more attention to them in this post. Loss Condition / Number of Mafia I want to point out one assumption regarding when we lose from mislynch – it is possible we survive some mislynches with successful power roles (town vigi / doctor / roleblocker). Obviously, we can’t bank on that possibility (there’s no certainty we have those roles or that they would make the right shot/save/block) and I don’t think it affects our play today, but I wanted to make the correction. Tolkien’s Post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828567) Tolkien points out the lurkers I mentioned above with the inclusion of theDragoon. I think looking at the lurkers is worthwhile, but I would mention that a mafia Tolkien has a nice justification for doing so. I know we can’t read too into Robik’s death, but I would note when he listed his reads earlier, his top mafia were basically the people Tolkien mentioned, plus Tolkien. So, a mafia Tolkien could want to steer the conversation to the people around him, particularly given that there were a few scum reads on him yesterday. On February 18 2014 02:08 IAmRobik wrote: As of right now, this is where I'm at from most town to most scummy: Me Cavalinho OnceKing TheDragoon Amiko Beneather Valenius Tolkien N1k0 Moving on to his analysis, I think I would see Valenius and Beneather as more scummy, with n1k0 as a little less scummy. It’s hard to separate them that much, but I don’t really see theDragoon as lurking, and I feel Beneather is similarly situated to Valenius- I think you cover Valenius pretty well, I don’t have much to add to that. I dislike that Beneather had some frequent posts at the beginning of the game, and has since posted very rarely. I am a little mixed about the posts here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817073) as I discussed earlier (he says he doesn’t see Tolkien as town but only provides an example where Tolkien acts scummy). I also dislike his light response to Tolkien’s push here: On February 18 2014 08:33 Lord Tolkien wrote: @ Beneather: Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet. On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia. A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. ##VOTE Valenius It’s not that I necessarily disagree with Beneather, it’s just, I wish he had posted more reads on other players, too. I thought it was weird that Beneather hadn’t even commented on Cavalinho. So, as to Tolkien’s discussion of these players, I think yes, Valenius looks scummy, but I do want to mention that caveat that I see Beneather somewhat similarly. Tolkien puts forward a more directed case on Valenius in the next post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828667). I agree with a few things Tolkien raises about OnceKing. For one, I did think OnceKing might be a night target since a few people had pointed to him as a town read (myself included). I don’t know if they were trying to avoid a medic save or not, but for now I still feel okay about my read on OnceKing (more town than scum). I was a little surprised at the night kill on IAmRobik because I was moving to pressure him, but I don’t think I can read much into that. Aside – Beneather’s & Valenius Votes I spent a little while looking at Beneather and Valenius’ votes but I couldn’t get anything I felt was meaningful out of them. I do want to note, though, theDragoon raised Beneather and Valenius as a possible mafia team. On February 20 2014 02:37 theDragoon wrote: @OnceKing On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. I don’t have any strong confidence that they are a team, but I do agree that Beneather’s vote on Valenius doesn’t do anything to convince me they aren’t same-aligned. Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town: On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post? I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context. On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good: Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him. I have more to say on these posts and will put it up this PM. I accidentally deleted a post earlier so I am working back through my thoughts. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have comments on valenius & n1k0, I see they have some recent posts so I'll try to put some things in on those before throwing in my vote | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Two quick questions that are more technical rather than game talk: 1) Is there any way to have a filter with two people in it? Like, if I want to see player A and B speaking in order but not the rest of the comments in between? 2) Is there an easier way to post quotes than to click quote on each post and copy and paste the relevant parts? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: First point: Wtf does OMGUS'ing mean? I had to look this up earlier - http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Oh_My_God_You_Suck Basically voting for one person because they voted for you. I read through Valenius' explanation of his vote on IAmRobik and I think it makes a little sense from his point of view. I don't know, I guess I saw Robik's as trying to get leads by calling out XYZ as scummy or towny just to see how people responded. For my part I think I mostly wrote those posts off because they seemed ambiguous or just joking around. I can imagine that Valenius would feel that these were scum (as I think Tolkien felt with OnceKing and I felt with Cavalinho). So, I don't put too much into Valenius' vote on IAmRobik. Valenius' read of theDragoon as very towny (here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101 and here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833346) seem a little odd because a few people saw Cavalinho as town -- on n1k0 I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz". -- I am still unsure about this so I want to have a few questions for Beneather to answer if/when he shows up. @Beneather: I asked this one yesterday which I don't think he answered (in the one post he made since then). On February 18 2014 06:07 Amiko wrote: I see this post as more noncommittal than scummy. I at least want to see Beneather commit more. Beneather, if you don’t think Tolkien is scum, is there anything you see as weighing against him as town? Here are three questions I want to start with: 1) Would you support a vote on n1k0 today? 2) Would you support a vote on Valenius todday? 3) What is your current read on Tolkien? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Valenius' read of theDragoon as very towny (here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101 and here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833346) seem a little odd because a few people saw Cavalinho as town, so I'm not sure why he highlights theDragoon for reading Cavalinho as town. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 21 2014 02:09 Valenius wrote: Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today? I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened. At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read. I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else (n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads. So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town). So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town. I think the same thing comes up here from n1k0- On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his) OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 21 2014 06:32 Valenius wrote: Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads. You're right, sorry about that. Also I think you must read much faster than me :o -- My last post was basically going to end that I conclude it's best to vote on n1k0, but I saw Beneather posted so wanted to see if I could pull anything from it. I don't, really. Beneather's post doesn't do much to change what I typed except (to me) it makes it less likely he is idle town. I don't find his post above does much of anything for my reads for or against him. On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I think this is a good question, but I think I should not respond until just before night 2. I am going to certainly going to try to look at vote & flips during night2, but I think your flip will have more of a bearing on who I see as town or scum tomorrow and I don't want to point to that part of the analysis just yet. (If I forget someone please poke me to remind me to post those thoughts during n2) Based on the above post and thoughts now, my preference for today's lynch is n1k0, then beneather. I will be back before the votes and probably here as the clock ticks down. ##Vote: n1k0 | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I just want to note (again) I would like to encourage analysis in the night phase if we are still going, but if people would prefer it waits until day that is okay with me. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think this flip gives us some good info. For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost). (1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good) | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) I feel confident Valenius is town Whether there are two or three mafia in the game, I feel it is highly unlikely they would begin day 2 by pressuring their mafia teammate n1k0. On this basis, I now feel very good about Valenius because I feel he opened the case against n1k0 and placed his vote on n1k0. This is particularly good because Valenius presented as less towny (at least to me) and among my lynch candidates going into d2, so having him now present as very likely town puts us in a good position. To explain this reasoning more in depth: If there are three mafia, they only needed to get one mislynch to almost certainly secure a win. In this case, I don’t think bussing n1k0 would make sense. Looking back at the first posts of the day, I think early pressure was building on Valenius. If Valenius is town (as I currently feel) then I feel that would have been the seemingly most obvious target for a mislynch. In other words, I don’t feel mafia would sacrifice n1k0 if they could win by only convincing one person. If there are two mafia, I still feel they would not try to push a vote on n1k0. It seems too risky with the potential of town power roles alive, and it gives up two votes to manipulate when town appeared undecided day 1. Thus, I do not think a mafia Valenius would start pressure on mafia n1k0. (2) I am pretty confident there are two mafia in the game (n1k0 + one other person) I agree with Valenius’ posts here: On February 21 2014 16:45 Valenius wrote: Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted. On February 21 2014 04:46 Valenius wrote:If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg. I do have one thing to add to that, though. I agree with OnceKing as to my question (why didn’t n1k0 fakeclaim a town role) – I think he gave up. I feel like even if he ended up getting lynched, he may have had a better shot at surviving if he claimed a town role once momentum started to build on him. If he’s mafia he doesn’t know what roles town has, so it’s possible if he outed as a role no one would have existed to counterclaim him. I mean, it’d look really scummy when he was still alive and we’d probably kill him d3, but I feel like that would have a mafia desperation/gamble play. I bring this up here because again, it makes me think this game only has 2 mafia. With 3 mafia that move (which I see as a desperation play) might have been more realistic because swinging just one vote on n1k0 could have led to a win. (3) I think there is probably a mafia vote among the votes for n1k0 I’m not as confident on this conclusion than my others, but I still feel pretty good about it- N1k0 pulled five of the seven votes yesterday. Working on the belief there is only one mafia left, I don’t feel a mafia theDragoon would have think he could sway enough town to Valenius to justify keeping his vote there. Moreover, I think momentum built behind n1k0 early enough that mafia could have joined the vote for him. Although I am among the later votes on n1k0 I think looking at the later votes is worthwhile. I would summarize my reasoning as: (1) I was not confident between Valenius /nik0/Beneather and (2) I felt voting earlier took pressure off Beneather when we needed more info from him. I’m fine with being re-scrutinized d3 but if you also Beneather is high on your scumlist (as I do, see below) realize that we get so little out of him there should be some push on him earlier. That provides some of the justification for this one: (4) Right now Beneather is my top vote followed by theDragoon Going into day 3 my #1 scumread is Beneather. First, I don’t think Beneather’s vote on n1k0 yesterday night makes him less scummy because it came late enough it was unlikely to swing the vote. Moreover, as noted, I feel there is probably a mafia among the n1k0 votes. Second, both times Beneather came into the game he raised a case on Valenius. Suspecting n1k0 doesn’t strike me as bad (I felt Valenius was potentially scummy until n1k0’s flip) but here’s my problems: (1) I don’t think he adequately goes after other players. I pushed him on Tolkien d1 (d1 he said townread Tolkien but only indicated one thing by Tolkien he scumread). (2) If the scumteam is Beneather + n1k0, I think their best target to mislynch is [b]Valenius[b]. I saw those three as the candidates for today, so if that’s the team it makes sense for him to keep pushing Valenius. Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day. To be fair, theDragoon also voted on Valenius. theDragoon is currently my second potential scum on the grounds I don’t read him as towny as the others and keeping his vote on Valenius could reflect an attempt to push the vote onto him. I just think Beneather did so more directly and his playstyle seems wrong to me. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
4 town vs. 1 mafia. Even if we mislynch Beneather, we should have 2 town vs 1 mafia tomorrow. On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote: I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night. Here's what I think re claims, tell me if you agree: If cop has a red check, they should claim. If the mafia counterclaims, we lynch both players and win. If cop has green checks then I'll leave it to him to decide how to play it since there might be a godfather. On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. Typically they can't. If 2 town mislynch with 1 mafia remaining, then 1 town 1 mafia go into the night. If the last town is a vigi, the mafia and town shoot each other, do both sides win? (Obviously this isn't a situation to aim for, I thought of that seems funny given the win conditions in the first post) On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote: Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing. Yeah sorry I sometimes get you and OnceKing confused sometimes because you are a Lord and he is a King :3 Just to be clear, I agree OnceKing brought a focused case but to me that's irrelevant to why Valenius is town - I think if he was mafia he would not have put up his post attacking n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101) where he names him as his top read and would not have put his vote on n1k0. If he was mafia I think he would have followed the path of discussion of OnceKing discussing theDragoon. I can understand suspicion on me given my day 2 play. I didn't feel as strongly on n1k0 as you guys did and went back and forth between the three potential votes. I'll be around tomorrow morning but out tomorrow afternoon to evening so my responses may be a little later. There's a long time until the night, though. Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town? Not much to add except ##Vote: Beneather | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 22 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: oh, and are you guys planning on joining in on the next newbie game? I think I will, it's been good fun. (If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..) I'm not sure, but I probably won't ^^; I do kind of want to try a larger setup though so maybe if there is one I will try that. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop. Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up theDragoon Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien. In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before). In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best. saving a mafia At the end of day 1, I did some notes on who could have saved Cavalinho. While I’ll grant that theDragoon’s vote is somewhat consistent I’ll point this out: theDragoon hesitated to name n1k0 scummy, but later implied that n1k0 was his second scumread. He named Cavalinho as towny. Nonetheless, he did not move his vote from Tolkien (who he voted on with a very weak justification) to n1k0, who we know to be scum. The confusing votes from theDragoon make much more sense when you realize he is trying to avoid lynching his mafia teammate n1k0. Moving into day 2 Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day. The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else. A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy . OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill. Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post: On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched, On February 21 2014 12:49 theDragoon wrote: This feels so good, my last mafia game we had no successful lynches so it puts a huge smile on my face seeing that red text show up. OnceKing you are the MVP for this one. and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players. -- That’s all I can contribute for now. It was written in a pretty long sitting so hopefully it's kind of coherent. I had fun with the little section titles at the end, lol. I do want to be clear on this post (and it’ll be the same for Tolkien when I pull one together) – I decided before I started the goal was to make a case on theDragoon. Working through this has made me review a lot of posts and I think I’ve come away with some reads that I didn’t have before (unrelated to theDragoon) so I would encourage you guys to try too :D we are going into a bona-fide 3 player standoff which is probably the coolest way a mafia game can end. As usual I'll be working tomorrow morning, if I have time in the afternoon I'll write up some notes on Tolkien or Valenius | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I feel that if you are town and alive tonight, you will help tomorrow’s discussion most by raising a case. I think you should post a case on someone regardless of whether they are your most scum read. The people alive can weigh the cases and defenses tomorrow given the information they have (that they are town & potentially informed by cop checks). Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one- On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. Anyway that doesn’t really matter as much because n1k0 is dead, but I just mention it because I noticed a few other things I will share tomorrow if I am alive and maybe you will notice some things too if you re-read to make a case. Be back later, at least we have an exciting finish :3 | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
First off, this is going to be the last day if anyone wants to claim cop please start off with that and list your checks so we can evaluate your play/checks. I have a little more to say on this in a responsive post but not right now. I am not a cop, though. theDragoon, I felt the case I wrote against you was fairly weak. I am not decided at this point whether you or Valenius is the last mafia. My post reading Valenius as town after the n1k0 lynch was honest and I felt he was a reliable town. However, when I was making a case for you I noted that you had a similar conclusion here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20838473) so I was concerned that a mafia Valenius would leave the two of us alive because we both indicated we read him as town. Tolkien also gave Valenius a town read in this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#368). The only thing I can really distinguish on this point is that you and I both indicated we were still somewhat solid on our reads of Valenius – I did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20849478) and you did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20864161). Tolkien didn’t really comment on it afterwards that I can see until his pre-death post. Based on that, my feeling coming into today was that if Valenius was mafia, he would probably not kill one of us; based off that read, I felt that if you died my read on Valenius as town was more likely to be correct - if he was mafia it would be very unlikely he would kill one the two people who had so recently named him town. That said, Tolkien was the target for tonight. Although I had some concerns about Valenius, I was pretty surprised to see Tolkien finger him as a first priority lynch in that last post. On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. I’ll go through your response to my case also. On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1? This is one of the points I raised on you that I did feel was legitimately scummy. I wasn’t sure what Tolkien’s role was, but I didn’t feel comfortable voting for someone who hinted at being a blue role, even if he was voting for OnceKing who I named as towny. I absolutely agree your point that it would be a bad mafia play on your part because you’d expect to get negative attention day 2. For what it’s worth, by the same logic, if n1k0 and I were a scumteam, having both mafia players vote on the same person day 1 (who, if we were mafia, might even flip blue!) seems like an even worse play to me. On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it? I can follow this logic, I just felt like it was a weaker justification than votes on other people. I also raised the Cavalinho vote issue- I agree with your points on that. I felt like this was a weak read (I even noted the Cavalinho thing myself), but it was something to push you on. On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument? In sum, theDragoon, we came into day 4 having indicated that we townread Valenius. At some point in this day we are going to have to start voting. If we cross voted I don’t know who Valenius would pick. But, if he is mafia and we are both town, we need to make sure that we are as sure as we can be that we can trust him to make the right choice. My plan for tomorrow is to try to re-examine Valenius and see what reads I can get out of him and not let my read hang entirely on the n1k0 vote. I also need to give Tolkien’s post a closer look. I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them: @theDragoon – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or Valenius as mafia? @Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia? @Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day) @Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? I'm super sleepy now x.x but I'll try to be extra attentive to the thread tomorrow since it's exciting lylo times. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Tolkien’s Scumbait Post On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that. My Discussion of Cops This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now. Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both. First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows: 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored 1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop. But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop. If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop). If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game). So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice. Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls? Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive. The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird. I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read. Night Kills theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1. I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town. Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation. The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill. Kill on Robik First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is. 1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik. I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting. I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it). Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so. 2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here. On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245). 3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill. In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik. -- @Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1? I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 25 2014 16:22 Amiko wrote: Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument? | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I was referring to this post (the 'decent argument' was a quote from you that I was confused about): On February 20 2014 01:45 theDragoon wrote: LT believes that the most likely mafia are the day 1 lurkers: Valenius, N1k0 and Beneather. I just went through each of their filters and Valenius has been the most active of the three but also his posts have the least amount of substance. Even Beneather pointed it out in his latest post: I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him. N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him. I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3. ##Vote Valenius Going to get some dinner then try to put up some more ideas | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Godfather On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former. This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game. On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence). Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment. On February 26 2014 09:20 Valenius wrote: I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were. Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik. This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering. The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point. On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon. Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly. On February 20 2014 09:24 Amiko wrote: Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town: I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context. Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him. Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night. On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY) | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
[u]Night Posts[u] In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion. First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone. Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night. Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck. On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction. I get what you are saying, but I don’t feel this is strongly indicative of town or mafia. The people who voted for me moved their votes off of me – they considered me and decided I was more town than scum, or that I was at least not as scummy as other players. I think mafia Amiko would want to keep them alive since they had a townread or nonscumread d1. I imagine mafia amiko is me but with an evil moustache and black hat :3 | ||
Amiko
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This one is responding to Valenius' post Valenius comment on n1k0 comment on godfather On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever. N1k0’s post was early in the game, however your comment on n1k0’s analysis was not. At this point we know there is no cop, so it seems very unlikely there is a godfather. So it doesn’t make sense that n1k0 would Just to be clear, this is all meta argument. It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather. It is possible there is a town roleblocker, even though that role could serve no town purpose given the available roles (it can’t stop a mafia kill and can’t cancel a mafia roleblock, so essentially town roleblocker could only screw over a cop/vigi/medic). To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection. On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard? We had a lot of activity that could be seen as OMGUS on day 1. I voted Cavalinho after he voted for me. Tolkien voted for OnceKing after OnceKing voted for him. Cavalinho voted for n1k0 after n1k0 voted for him. I don’t see your vote on Robik as indicative of much of anything, Robik read on theDragoon Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon. On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon. I posted one thing where Robik says he likes theDragoon and Valenius says that isn’t a strong read- On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from. Robik equated that post to a read of theDragoon being town. He spelled it out a little more clearly here: On February 18 2014 04:57 IAmRobik wrote: I just haven't switched my vote yet. I do think TheDragoon is town as I expressed. I honestly forgot that my vote was on him. ##unvote I hope you can understand how I read your posts and feel they are not correct, if you open Robik’s filter and search theDragoon these posts are there. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response. I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play. In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance. I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss. I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play. | ||
Amiko
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Here’s where I am at. I think I pushed a little on theDragoon and more on Valenius today and Valenius pushed more on me today. From the posts I feel Valenius is more likely to be mafia, but I don’t like that theDragoon is on the sidelines. Even so, when I tried to make a case on theDragoon I couldn’t really convince myself he was more likely to be mafia than Valenius. I feel Valenius is probably the last mafia. However, if you are town Valenius I would ask you to post what you can about theDragoon. You can certainly respond to my posts but I think we spent more time going over you and me than theDragoon so maybe you will turn up something new. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 04:03 Valenius wrote: Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious. welp. That basically answers my 3/3 post (above this). Maybe we are only spinning wheels at this point, but if you have new comments on my posts please do post them. | ||
Amiko
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Currently I still read you as scummier than theDragoon. There is some relaxation in thinking that well, if Valenius is town and he is voting wrong (which you are) then the game is lost at this point regardless of who I vote for. For what it's worth, even if I convince you to vote theDragoon, I will probably still vote for you, so maybe the result won't change the game. But this does at least give town a better shot at winning because I know I am town. We've both already tried to read through theDragoon's filter and we didn't come up with much. But, if you look at theDragoon and I, I think you can at least conclude that I have been more proactively scum hunting than him - he has been mostly defensive on himself without contributing as much to the points you and I have raised on each other. Maybe we can't make a strong argument for theDragoon as scum, but I'd at least argue you can read me as more town than him. You haven't seen theDragoon put substantial questions to either of us, and I feel you can fairly conclude that I've justified my scumread on you with more than he has. Yeah, I am probably going to vote you, but if you are town then the only way we can win is if you vote theDragoon. I'll likely eat a quick lunch and be back in about an hour. | ||
Amiko
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Amiko
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1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it. Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me. He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to. theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't. ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT Also copchecks / godfather Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game. Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person. | ||
Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
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On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote: He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko. Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip. | ||
Amiko
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(I haven't actually rechecked all the posts but I don't think anyone else raised that?) | ||
Amiko
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Amiko
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On February 27 2014 06:21 theDragoon wrote: One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon. If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia? | ||
Amiko
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I have trouble saying that your filter is more town than theDragoons but his last post just seems so inconsistent with town that I can't really read it another way. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:29 Valenius wrote: The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you. I get what you are saying, but I feel like we both have acted the same way here: if you are town, you mostly focused me. I mostly focused you. I don't feel either of us was really aiming our comments at theDragoon to convince him. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If you are town the same logic applies to you - you should have directed comments at theDragoon to try to convince him I'm mafia. I can't say your logic is wrong, I'm just saying I'm town and I didn't follow that logic, if you are town then you know you are town and didn't follow it either. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 06:38 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious. We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people. Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me. theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read. On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#437 On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#438 On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#430 On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised. --- Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia. | ||
Amiko
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Amiko
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On February 27 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. 1) Where did you express that intent? 2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius? On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 06:48 Valenius wrote: Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play. That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius. Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole). | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote: How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you. However I'm not convinced right now. 1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter. 2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s 3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967 But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes? -- theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote: At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind. The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum. I know what you mean by option 1, that's the WIFOM argument I'm referring to (Mafia wanted to portray themselves as a pair so they could argue they wouldn't do that). I think there is a good case to discount that option one, though, because whereas n1k0 piggybacked onto me, I don't think I did anything to encourage the idea we were together. I did question n1k0, even pointed out that I didn't feel I had questioned him enough in my post n1 and started trying to get information out of him. And yeah I mean I have to consider theDragoon as more scummy given his play today. I'm not going to pretend I liked your arguments yesterday (MAFIA SANDWICH) but I just really do not like the quality or depth of theDragoon's play today. | ||
Amiko
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On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote: I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town. To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist. Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote: At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind. The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum. I will mention (though this runs against me being able to convince theDragoon you are mafia) that I feel if you were mafia your best play would have been to say sorry I have to sleep and disappeared a few hours ago. You have not. I feel your best play would be to be more aggressive on me at this time, and you have not. It's possible that theDragoon's comments have just been a lot worse today for some reason, and it's possible that you want to secure your hold on theDragoon. But I have to see theDragoon as increasingly mafia. I don't know I'll keep fighting for as long as you are up. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I just have to make sure you made the right decision for town theDragoon, WELCOME TO THE SANDWICH. theDragoon, Here's what I need from you: First, dude, read the posts that came before your vote and try to give me some responses on that. Second, from my view, if you are town then Valenius is mafia. If he is mafia, I think he would only move his vote if he felt he had a better chance of changing my mind (which had been mostly presenting him as mafia) than I had of changing yours (which I feel like wasn't getting us anywhere). Third, although I'm happy Valenius is convinced enough I am town to change his vote, I admit I don't feel this post is as damning of you (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20876925), I suppose because I also felt he was probably town based on the n1k0 vote. Even so, I'm going to reread the posts around it and I'd appreciate if you respond to the post if only to give me more reads So I would like your response on it but to be honest I think I will need to reread your filter a little to figure out why it matters | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 08:15 theDragoon wrote: I have to go out for about 2 hours so I'll be available for a couple of hours before the deadline. Whoever is the town player out of you two, please make the right choice and vote for the real mafia. If there's a vote for me then it's very likely that we will lose and the one to vote me first is the real mafia. I've played for the town right from the start of the game and it's really a surprise for me to last this long since several players have read me as town throughout various points in the game. I think the only reason why I'm alive and didn't get night killed was because I was the only vote on Valenius, and mafia could try to use that against me. I'm not exactly a strong player but I really tried to put in the effort to help town. I will be really disappointed to see us lose this game, and if we lose then we totally deserve it since the mafia will have outplayed us. I really hope that when I get back, the town player left over doesn't make the mistake of voting for me. Please consider what each player has done throughout the game to make your decision. I've tried looking through everything during day 4 trying to find the right answer and I don't even know if I succeeded. I'll be back in time to answer any questions. See you guys later! theDragoon when you get back please start posting responses raised above. Valenius is going to bed so I am not going to get anything more from him until the vote and the game will basically hinge on my responses to what you raise. It is very important that you give me as much information as possible. Right now I feel that you have done the most scummy stuff today - you seem to ignore some posts, provide only short answers to things. In addition to the above, I want you to justify your play today. In addition to the earlier points, here's a few more to work with: Why did you vote earlier when you will be back later in the day? Why did you vote while recognizing there were new posts you didn't read? You raised some points in your post for why you felt I was mafia and I posted some responses. Why didn't you use time today to respond to those and decide if you still felt I was mafia? I guess if Valenius is asleep and you are heading out for a few hours I will take some time to myself. Maybe get a sandwich... | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have some general comments and ideas I want to work through, but I think this is the important one for now and I'd appreciate your comments. I want to post this because I feel your responses on it may be more helpful - tell me if you think something is logically correct or incorrect and why. Sorry in advance, though, this may not be as composed as some of my other posts. Prior to today I expected to vote Valenius. To go a step further, I think I telegraphed fairly clearly that Valenius was my likely vote. Similarly I feel Valenius telegraphed that I was his likely vote. So, if the expectation is Valenius & I voting for each other- If you are mafia you feel you are in a good position - if we cross our votes, you win. If Valenius is mafia, he is uncertain. He only wins if you vote on me over him. He has to convince you that I am mafia. Well, I can say that, but honestly it doesn't give me much. If Valenius is town, he still needs to convince you that I am mafia to win. If you are town, your priority is figuring out which of us is more scummy. The telegraphed votes do feel relevant, though, to whether mafia Valenius would switch his vote. In short, mafia Valenius has to decide: Does he have a better shot at convincing me you are mafia? Or does he have a better shot at convincing you that I'm mafia? I am not sure, but I think he would conclude the second (convince you). At that point in the game, we had all indicated our reads were sort of up for grabs. But, you had indicated a preference for voting for me, whereas I had indicated a preference for voting for Valenius. I had even said I would probably vote him even if he voted for you. So, I think mafia Valenius would have probably felt you were the easier one to fool. Yet, he leaves me with something that is really townfeeling. He's moved his vote off me, which I know is a townsided play (because I'm town). At the same time, it's frustrating that he does so in his departure post. Neither of us can press him on his actions any more because he's gone to sleep, so my final impression is a town move. This is how I'm thinking right now, I don't have a specific question on it for you but if you comment on it maybe you can give me new something to think about. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 10:42 theDragoon wrote: I'm still very new to the whole mafia game (forum and IRL) so I wouldn't have guessed that having a cop means there would be a godfather, but what you're saying makes perfect sense. I was just really eager to find the true mafia between the two of you, and it definitely is a scummy thing for n1k0 to do. Now that I think about it, it makes n1k0 look scummy (which he is). It wouldn't make sense to out his teammate like that but there's the possibility that he's mind gaming us but thinking that way doesn't lead anywhere. Perhaps he did it to try to implicate you? Just to clarify, it's not that having cop means there is a godfather. It's just, if there is no cop in the game, then, there is probably no godfather in the game. There can be games with cops without godfathers, though. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
As I indicate in this post, I do not understand how it can be bait- Here is the summary, see the post below for more: (1) First you say you can't explain it or it won't be bait. However, the post we are looking at came after the votes, so it's after mafia fell for the bait or didn't. (2) You explained prior to the vote that you would change your vote (I didn't notice it before), so I don't understand - how is your post even bait if mafia knows you will switch your vote? (3) You provided an explanation after the vote which didn't mention the idea of bait. Your justification is that it might maybe raising it later on would be useful. To me, it seems like either you lied to town then when explaining your vote, or you lied now. Can you give me an example situation where that would be useful? (4) Whether you are mafia or town I don't know why you even brought that up, it is just WEIRD. On February 27 2014 07:20 Amiko wrote: However I'm not convinced right now. 1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter. 2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s 3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967 But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes? -- theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 11:12 theDragoon wrote: Ok, call it bad logic or whatever, I'm not exactly that great of a mafia player, which is why I got lynched day 1 my last game. I do agree that it would have been poor mafia play if someone caught on early, but I was just trying to entertain all possibilities. Sorry if I'm being mean, I didn't mean it that way I just was frantic and worried. Whether you are town or mafia I didn't feel like your play was bad, it's just that your comments today really threw me for a loop. I mean I misread Cavalinho, started a case on Robik, was slow voting on n1k0 day 2, and then voted Beneather. I think these were justified, but I still think I have made some mistakes through this game. This decision is particularly hard because if you were mafia, I feel like you didn't need to post your vote on me. It's only thanks to that comment I was able to convince one town to remove their vote from me, I just don't know whether that town is you or Valenius yet. I've got about 35 minutes left so there's still a little time to work through this. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 11:24 theDragoon wrote: I think his purpose today was to determine exactly that, hence the early vote on you. He wanted to see if I followed suit and wanted to gauge your reaction. His switch onto me means he found that he had a better chance of convincing you that I am mafia. See this is the thing which I feel makes it more likely that this was not a play by Valenius. Your post prior to the vote did indicate you were going to vote. But, Valenius didn't know when you were going to vote. And, he could only try to win me over by swapping votes if there was reason to do so, and there wasn't reason until you voted. To be fair, Valenius did indicate he was looking at the times of posts (in his last post he refers to your vote time and he mentioned comparing the vote times of me and n1k0). It's possible that he guessed you would be back in the afternoon and put up a post. Yet even then, if your post had been stronger my response might have been to try to convince you rather than him, which I think is a fair assumption by him given how I was reading him as mafia. I'm just saying, without your vote and my frantic response, he was basically locked into the vote on me. (I mean Valenius could pop up in the next 30 minutes, if so please show up now cause I have some questions for you) In other words, I can see Valenius making the vote swap play to win me over. But, I don't think he could have reliably expected to be able to make that play because it needed you to make a post that was weird/scummy enough to justify him changing his vote and me seeing you as scum. -- I could definitely be wrong on this, and if so sorry to everyone. Please forgive me because I am certainly trying as hard as I can on this one. @theDragoon I am not done reading, keep on posting, I could change my mind. I will keep reading and responding. If Valenius is scum then I don't know what to say except wow, gg. ##Vote: theDragoon | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
##Vote: theDragoon | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 11:38 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko I want to ask you, do you think Val's justification to vote for me is solid? Would it be something you agree with? That's pretty much the only reason he's voted for me, if he really thought I was mafia I'm sure there would be a lot more evidence that proves it. Yes and no. I mean, I don't feel that the last post from him put any sort of strong case on you. To me your conclusion that he was town was totally legit, it's one I reached myself. I don't find the timing to be that persuasive. The thing is, I do feel like your weird play in the last day (your bait with explanation, or late explanation for something that is different than your prior explanation, your non responsiveness to defenses yet asking me to defend, your summary vote post) felt like weird plays. I keep using the word weird because it's like, if you are lying about the bait, why would you? If you did miss my responses, why would you? Maybe I should see that as weighing for you as town. In other words, by that logic I raised a second case on you that I do not feel is strong, so Valenius shouldn't have switched his vote (because my case was not compelling enough). I think this is actually the best post you made tonight and if anything is going to convince me it's probably that. I'm going to reread my case on you and decide how I feel on it. | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote: Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point. I really wish I had not said this. On the one hand as a town in LYLO the only way I can win is to convince the town voting on me not to. I did accomplish this (because you have moved your votes to each other). But, I indicated strongly to Valenius that I would vote for theDragoon so it makes it very tempting to swap onto me. I guess from that I have to conclude that I can't really consider Valenius' swap onto me as indicative of towniness, even if it had a town result. Time is about up. I am certainly not sure about the vote, it'd be nice to end the day strong but I'm not there. gg either way and well played to both sides | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/N2cxFAYK3hr Some minor notes on my play and thoughts- > I breadcrumbed being vanilla town in my first post. As Balla pointed out, this serves no purpose, but I felt clever at the time. lol. > I felt posting this in the forum would be a mistake, but one reason I hesitated on n1k0 is that if I was mafia and saw one player call another player an asshole, I would go out of my way to keep those players in the game together so they could hurt the town atmosphere. So, I thought mafia would be less likely to vote Cavalinho > I don't know if my vote analysis n1 was wrong or people just played weird. If that was wrong I would appreciate knowing it > I am pleased with my play to the extent that I got a lynch off of me day 1 + 4. I don't think I my reads or leadership were that great, even if I did end up on the right person two times out of four. > I think theDragoon played pretty consistently well throughout the game and would have probably won if his post voting me were done after Valenius went to sleep or with more backing. I don't think it was a terrible post, but I was so desperate that it was the only thing I could use and I just tried to get as much mileage out of it as possible. This was my first forum game and a mixed experience for me. I was hoping that with 24 hours between posts, the game would provide more numerical analysis of votes, posts, phrasing, etc. But even with time I feel I often didn't post things quite how I intended, and there was very little analysis of that sort. The constraints of forum mafia really came across in the last day... the brief period where all three living players were on at the same time was invaluable to me in moving away from my prior scumread on Valenius and convincing him I was town. I really feel that if our times hadn't lined up just so it'd probably be over. I'll welcome any postgame comments from anyone on my play, I felt like I learned a lot through playing. Thanks again to all the hosts and coaches. (I edited this post cause the game is over) | ||
Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote: I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST). So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering. When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote lol | ||
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