gonna try to get back in to TL mafia, is it alright if I start here?
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ExO_
United States2315 Posts
gonna try to get back in to TL mafia, is it alright if I start here? | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On December 30 2014 01:00 Half the Sky wrote: Welcome back Exo. How long ago did you play? Heads up - sent a few messages to a few whom I think might fancy it here. Looks like we need 2-3 more at this point, so I hope I can help eek out something. As for Tube, he has told me a few days ago he'd rather shadow or observe this game. 6 months ago. I had to leave in the middle of a game (my 3rd on TL I think?) last time due to some IRL circumstances. I PMed the mod but I don't think he was okay with it. I checked the Ban List but I didn't see my name on it. I don't wanna violate any rules though, so if I'm supposed to sit a game I'll sit. But I'd love to play if I'm allowed, especially since my TL mafia experience is extremely limited. | ||
ExO_
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ExO_
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On January 05 2015 09:35 rsoultin wrote: nope, not implying she's scum, just implying she's awfully anxious to make sure we don't think she's scum which is actually less an implication and more an outright statement given my question. aren't you interested in the answer, ls? Correct me if I'm wrong, but she just made one post right? And that's your basis for "awfully anxious to make sure we don't think she's scum"? Seems like that's reading into things quite a bit more than is reasonable. I'm much more highly suspicious of you for trying to through some nonsense suspicion on someone else. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On January 05 2015 12:25 jarjarbinks wrote: Good day everyone I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I also have a broken compy. Womp womp. Ill also be more active when Im not sick but Ill read and stuff I really hate this post. Coming up with not 1, but 2 excuses for inactivity immediately. Like you gotta be kidding me, you're too sick to post on your broken computer but you're going to "read and stuff". I don't buy this as helpful to town at all, but merely as a tactic to try to slip by day 1. You get my vote for now. | ||
ExO_
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ExO_
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On January 05 2015 23:22 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Hey guys. Trying to get my head around the theme because I've never actually watched 24, though I know about it. I know, I know, sorry. Got my thesis submitted this morning, yay! So now I have time to actually do stuff. Although I'm not going to spend ALL my time in here because frankly I had no Christmas or New Year and my Birthday is next Monday so...yeah I have to make up for that. Going to watch all of Breaking Bad and Puella Magi Madoka Magica. :D But I'll still do whatever I can to help with the scumhunting in between trying to relax. Anyway, as I understand it we need to decide on a lynch for Wednesday night, right? According to the counter anyway. Going to be tricky because lots of new players but of those few who HAVE played before...well actually I've been watching some of the recent mafia games over the holiday before I even signed up so I recognise some names. Hope that helps with my reading. I'm not really familiar with most of the people here I've got some initial thoughts on other people's posts so far. I've read it all and there's just enough to make comments on everyone at this early point: The Shining made some good points on both HtS and rsoultin. Not a lot to go on but I like his thinking and comments on both of them, its logical and nicely detailed. I'd tentatively start learning towards town on this guy based on that. Half the Sky posted some fluff and moved onto questioning a couple of people in the last couple of posts. Some people posted some good things about scum reads but Trfel's point that she opened the other game exactly the same way (where she was town) has a lot of merit, I watched some of that game myself actually before signing up here and found her really hard to get a read on early. So for now I'm just saying neutral. rsoultin running around poking people with accusations. Little bit too quick about it and jumping from person to person very fast it seems. I'm not sure whether to read that as a genuine scumhunt attempt or bluehunting. And very, very quick to judge HtS like he's trying to find a reason to hang someone up as a nice big lynch target right away. Neutral leaning towards scum, I'm somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's my own feeling or influenced by comments from other people so it'd be unfair to go all of the way and say scum. Maybe he's just really enthusiastic? jarjarbinks hasn't posted much to go on at all. Don't know whether that's because of the claimed computer problems or because he's trying to stay unnoticed though so its somewhat unfair to read at this early point. Though he IS making a lot of inactivity accusations which doesn't look good. Trfel made a good initial impressions post with a good observation about HtS. Neutral. I want to almost say "leaning away from scum but not leaning town" here from that first post because its how I feel even thought it makes no sense. Gumdrop one post. Neutral because judging based on one short post, as for jarjarbinks, is unfair at this point. Silverarte immediately jumped by rsoultin for lack of clarity after her first post commenting on his reading on all his jumping about. This very much makes me feel they're not teamed up as otherwise they'd not want to draw attention like that. My initial feeling is that either one of them is scum or neither is. Though that could change with more posts. TheWarWaffle gave an analysis on HtS that seems earnest. On the other hand Trfel pointed out that HtS opened exactly similarly to last time when she was town; and given that WW made such a big deal of the quality of his reads it seems a bit strange that he'd either miss such an obvious source of information. So either WW is trying to make an earnest analysis as town and isn't aware of HtS' past game (which would seem strange given his apparent confidence), or he's scum and might be trying to get a lynch train going against HtS. Possibly with rsoultin possibly just taking advantage of his early comments, I don't know. Hard read to make. ExO_ made good points about rsoultin and jarjarbinks and was good to call out WarWaffle on his claims of tells but not actually saying anything. Although he hasn't posted a lot I like what I've seen. Probably my strongest townread. LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. Tubesock is coming across as really scummy from those first few posts. He comments about how he likes rsoultin's finger pointing and comments on jarjar positively as well despite the fact the guy has said little. His only other comments are a question about guides, a comment about how we definitely need to lynch D1 and how "even a mislynch gets a lot of information" and playing down his D1 read ability in order to remain under the radar. It seems a mix of sidetracking, contributing for the sake of looking like contributing, and making excuses for not really getting involved. So yeah...in short I'd say that my strongest townread so far is probably ExO_ and my strongest scumread would be Tubesock. Though with not much to go on so far that could all change. Convince me! :D Day 1 is hard. Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. Before I get started I wanna mention I'm on my phone and so my ability to sift through everything and then subsequently organize my thoughts will be limited. So my posts are likely going to be numerous short posts for now. I think its important to remember this isnt a purely newbie game. There are coaches, and they are going to have an effect on the posts here. And I think the above post is coached to a certain degree, or celestial is not as new as he seems. I only count 2 town reads in his post, and the rest are either neutral or scum reads. At first I thought this was scummy, but the more I think about it the more im not entirely sure. Mafia love to call town as town, and a strong townread on me is an easy move for a mafia. For his first real post into the thread though, its quite a large post. And quite calculated. Makes me uneasy. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
Also I read through the setup and its my understanding we dont actually know the number of scum. Is this correct, and if so 3 would be the right number to assume correct? | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On January 05 2015 10:51 rsoultin wrote: Well, I am going to question things when they're not clear or seem out-of-place. Not sure how else to scumhunt cause I don't have a handy dandy scum divining rod. If you're implying that I'm bluehunting, though, not sure what you're basing that comment on apart from paranoia. Care to enlighten us? Rsoultin needs to post more, but I agree with this exchange in particular. Though I think her initial scum hunting was unlikely to produce anything, its better than not doing anything in the end. Shining looks like scummy with his post and right now looks like a good vig target to me (assuming we have a vig). However her activity has severly dropped off after this exchange. Id really like to see more posts from her. leaning town for now | ||
ExO_
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On January 06 2015 02:18 LightningStrike wrote: Rsoultin is a guy lol..... Also -Celestial- I did play the SC2 Mafia on Arcade mode too and I also play Town of Salem! Unfortunately TL Mafia and Fourm Mafia in general is quite different then Town of Salem and SC2 Mafia where it's not reliant on role claiming so early and also much faster Days and Nights. Im afraid this isn't true, as I've played video mafia with her just a few days ago. | ||
ExO_
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ExO_
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I thought she had posted significantly more than she had. But what she has posted I've largely approved of. Her posts, to me, seem reasonable but she's not shying away from giving scum reads. She has been helpful without being rude, while being concise. I think she's town, and definitely not a day 1 lynch candidate. However take a look at LS in these 2 quotes: On January 05 2015 23:50 LightningStrike wrote: + Show Spoiler + My new player reads I never played with before since you asked for them HTS -Celestial-: Town since he gave a lot of good points on why his reads were they were the way they were although he did make a mistake on editing and hoping he not modkilled. Gumdrop: I need some more posts to figure him out. Jarjarbinks: Need more posts from him but he got some excuses for why he so little posts so far. I hope he feels better and can play like like his brother! The Shining: Town for now since she asking some questions and looks like she trying to figure this game out but again I need more posts from him to confirm my thoughts of him being town. Silverate: I need more posts from her to determine her alignment. ExO_: Need more posts from because other than the nitpicking on your post there is nothing for me to look at TheWarWaffle: Town he at least tried to break down the stuff in your post and explain in his mine what the stuff means and asking questions about it. I hope he post more so I can confirm my read on him! On January 06 2015 00:34 LightningStrike wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2015 00:18 Half the Sky wrote: LS, unless I am misreading your sentence, moderator situations are not alignment indicative, but that aside, Celestial looks good for the most part for the in-depth analysis. I am a little surprised though you mentioned you had nothing alignment indicative on any of the veterans. Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting? Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself. I was just sharing my thoughts on his edit on his post and was hoping he not get modkilled lol. Also on alignment of the vets I not played with you guys when you guys were scum but I do have a slight feeling you and Rsoultin are town again and thought of a funny situation where you tfrel and rsoultin are scum vs me in a dream. Also it's Day 1 and my reads on Day 1 are normally poor except on Metal Mini on Palmar and KSC on Carol of the Bells as scum but I wasn't confident in my scum read there. That just my thoughts for now. The theme here, is "everybody's town". Not a single scum read here. He has a lot of posts, but when I read his filter I don't see scum hunting. I see him not ruffling feathers of anybody in particular. He's even got a nice little "my reads on day 1 are normally poor" excuse lined up all nice and pretty. nope nope nope. I see scum ##Vote: LightningStrike | ||
ExO_
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On January 06 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote: ExO was leaning town for me up until the part where he said I look like scummy and called for the vig, assuming we have one, to kill me tonight. And that was it. ExO, unless you're trying to just bandwagon off of someone else's logic, I would really like to know what about my post made me look scummy? Otherwise, you're just taking advantage of HTS pushing suspicion on me and trying to garner support for it before I can defend myself. Mafia would love it if the vig would do their killing for them. You've also already put in a lynch vote. Why so quick to kill? We're required to lynch Day 1 but we still have a lot of time to gather information. just going to address this part very quickly. I agreed with HTS logic, in that it did seem like you were disproving of scum hunting (the whole "let something slip" as if that would be a bad thing). I proposed you as a vig target because you made a suspicious post, and then disappeared. To me, if you stayed inactive you would be a decent vig shot. I'm not necessarily going to stand by this opinion now, though I think if you don't start helping town you'll remain on my scum radar. As for the lynch vote, I like having my votes in and visible. You're right there's plenty of time to gather more information, and I'm freely able to change votes. Keeping my votes in there lets you know where I stand and what I'm thinking. I think voting is generally a good thing. Players submitting votes introduces extra information. Even though it's minor, I think being able to look through and see how people voted and changed votes during the course of the day is a good thing. I wish we could get more people voting. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On January 06 2015 09:25 jarjarbinks wrote: I am a man. Exo and Celestial: I think you are wrong about LS. She did have some scum reads. The first post that everyone has been overanalyzing is a typical first post (at least in my newbie mind). Using "we" at the beginning implies to me that she wanted people to post. It's kind of like a "Let's go" kind of deal. Actually the first whole page of stuff seemed like people who were just excited the game started. I would expect more scumreads in the future, when there's much more to work with. Lol Rsoultin. Everyone did think you were a guy! I thought it was just the other game! Reading through all of this, I do see a lot of posts about how I need to defend my lack of posts. Right now I'm resisting the urge to come up some more excuses just so you guys can complain about them. I'll try to post more tonight. If she had scum reads, what were they. Can you quote them for me. And it's not your lack of posts per say. It's your lack of helping town. you aren't doing anything to establish innocence. You aren't doing anything to scum hunt. You aren't giving your own reads. You've clearly read the thread to some degree because you noticed that people thought rsoultin was a guy, yet you are offering nothing. I think you should be vigi shot. I almost think it's worth it to policy lynch you. You aren't even willing to give more than 2% effort. You might be town, but you seem like you couldn't care less. | ||
ExO_
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ExO_
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People seem to have the impression I was scum flipping. But I'm going to constantly be updating my thoughts as more information goes in. At the time I first questioned shining (I didn't even accuse him of being scum) there were not that many people in the thread. Since then however, shining has based his scum reads off OMGUS and even townread HTS right after scumreading her. So I think Shining has been scummy. JarJar finally posted a substantial post, which was my biggest problem with him to begin with: the fact that he was clearly reading the thread but posting complete garbage. However I don't really like his reads and then calling out 5 people as scum? It makes no sense....but not in a scummish way. JarJar gets a pass from me for today, for what I think is just bad/newbish town play. As a side note, I wanted the vigi shot on him at the time because he was relatively inactive, but unlike the other inactives he was clearly reading. Moving on to LS however: I think my original reasoning on him still holds. He's still playing this "oh I can't accuse anybody game, I'm unsure about every scum read" game. He asks questions, but I don't think he's getting valuable information out of people. He's polite and friendly sure. The kinda guy you want to like. But mafia isn't about being liked. It's not about lynching the rude people. It's about finding and lynching the scum. I don't think LS cares about that, he cares about slipping by. I think he's going to try a fake blue-claim if he gets a lot of pressure on him. There's my initial thoughts. There's a lot of stuff I need to look at more in depth, but after my catch-up read through I still think LS is our best lynch. Just talking a lot is not a good reason to let somebody slip by, and I highly disagree with the meta-(this is how he played town in his other game)-reads. We need to focus on this game here. If people think there is a better case than LS, please present it to me again. Or if theres a reason I should not be voting him today that I've missed. Because so far I don't see it. Totally unrelated to the game: Could somebody also please clarify who I should be calling "she". I've gotten confused in the thread, and it would bug me slightly if I'm getting it wrong. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote: I don't think so. I think that's basically the list at this point. Personally I think its a pretty reasonable list for the stage we're at too. @ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it. Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. And even if there is, his play here in this game seems scummish to me. It doesn't matter if in a previous game similar play from him was town. It might if I was on the fence with him, but I'm not. Which is why I think he IS the day 1 mafia lynch. I think he's trying to be active enough so that we have to say "He's a bad day 1 lynch." Compared to the other candidates (Shining/JarJar/WW) I think he's the best bet. I believe it strongly enough that I'm not willing to concede the vote for now, subsequently voting for one of the others. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 05:11 Tubesock wrote: If he hardclaims, are you going to ignore it? It gets a lot harder then. If he is mafia (as I suspect) then he'll have nothing to lose by claiming a blue role. It'll depend on if he claims blue, and what specific blue role he claims. I won't ignore it, but will make a decision when I see what he says. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 05:13 Half the Sky wrote: ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think. Game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome LS filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post: On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote: + Show Spoiler + Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being. Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town. Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky. Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions. Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game. sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town. meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum. alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions. Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do. kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :| Look Familiar? | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 05:12 LightningStrike wrote: I'm Vanilla Town this game I wish I was a Cop to redeem myself from Campus Mafia Nope I don't believe it. I think LS is mafia and believe we can nab him right now. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 05:35 Trfel wrote: Voting LightningStrike for now. Not impressed with his play at all. I'll say more in a bit once I finish reading everything. And what do you think about everybody else? I know you said you were going to be busy on day 1, but them majority of your filter is pre-game banter. So I'd like to get your thoughts on where players stand, before the lynch deadline. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 05:40 Gumdrop wrote: I know that it is popular to want to lynch LS right now. Presently though I don't see it though. :/ Irrelevant of that Exo_ has still yet to impress me. Vote: Exo_ And what have I done to make you think I'm scum? I'll admit I'm not always polite, but that's just how I play this game. If you think something I've done is scummy, then point it out. Not impressing you is hardly a good reason. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 05:52 TheWarWaffle wrote: You have a large filter because you took over ExO_'s position (accuser) after he disappeared. Your scum motivation would be to hide in plain sight and gain people's trust by posting frequently. Everyone has something to gain from getting people to talk; this is not indicative of scum. All of my scum indications from you have come from questions I asked myself when looking at your posts. Why would he say that? Why would I say that? What are his true intentions behind saying/writing this? I implore you to prove me wrong. However, after seeing LS's questionable "defense leaps", I feel that he has become the weakest link, and the safest vote out of everyone. WarWaffle would you mind being more specific in regards to the bolded portion above? What did he say that you think he would say as scum? | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 06:06 Half the Sky wrote: To add to what I just said on LS...in the game that he was scum, he acted like he was trying to hide, there was fear in some of his posts...and I'm not seeing any of that behaviour this game. He literally soft-claimed, then hard claimed. And you don't call that fear? There is panic in his posts. I don't like your rushing to his aid here. I see all sorts of fear in his posts, how can you not see any of it? | ||
ExO_
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His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS. I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS. | ||
ExO_
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On January 07 2015 06:54 Trfel wrote: I apologize to everyone (well okay, just the townies), I don't have time to read everyone and choose the ideal lynch target based on only my own analysis. My fault. I will do better next time. The bandwagon on TheWarWaffle feels like a policy lynch. The read on Half the Sky is extremely weak, but others have done the same thing. Still, I like the fact that he is analyzing wording and constructing an argument, even if I disagree with said argument. I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch. | ||
ExO_
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ExO_
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On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote: I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum. So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have. I realize that the timing of this vote switch seems really bad. I am still suspicious of LightningStrike, and am perfectly fine to explain why I voted for him in the first place. The primary explanation is that I wanted somewhere to place my vote, in case something happened and I didn't end up moving it by the deadline (I know that I am town, so I will take a ~25% chance of lynching scum over a 100% chance of a town!Trfel being modkilled, and a vote is easy to move). The reason I voted for LightningStrike is because he asked a lot of generic questions ("Hey you, what are your reads, with explanations please"). I don't remember him doing much questioning in the past, but I could be wrong. Still, asking primarily generic questions makes it seem even more like he is trying to appear useful while really doing nothing. In addition, he likes to use pretty fast meta reads, and didn't provide reads on any of the people he has played with before for quite some time. I feel that it was longer than I am used to. Anyway, those are my thoughts at the moment. I'm switching votes to The Shining. Meanwhile, I will start looking into other lynch options (open to suggestions), and will be waiting for feedback and pushes. On January 07 2015 06:59 ExO_ wrote: I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch. You didn't answer my question about why you think WarWaffle is a policy lynch, and not based on his posts. | ||
ExO_
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ExO_
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On January 07 2015 07:26 Trfel wrote: Please find a charging station and charge your phone or something, if at all possible. A claim like that isn't going to help with anything. You posted that before you answered. You've since answered, and that's all I wanted. | ||
ExO_
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I get it's a newb game, but we just lynched a blue role because he couldn't take the effort to post. And it makes me angry :/. | ||
ExO_
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However I intend to finish season 1 of the blacklist first. Currently I'm not caught up at all. And I'm still a bit pissed at WarWaffle. For a blue role to post that little, and then soft claim 2 hours before end of day like he did....it's just frustrating, even for a noob game. And his reads were so bad and so wrong. | ||
ExO_
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I think jarjar in a lot of his reads is suffering from confirmation bias. I'm not entirely sure where I stand on him right now. For now, I don't think I can consider him scum. Null I'm strong town-reading HTS. Everything she's posted has been good in my opinion. She's asked questions I've wanted to know the answers to as I read the thread. I think I'm still sold that Lightning Strike is scum. He has an OMGUS on shining today after shining voted him. I know he's saying his mother's medical problems are affecting him a bit, but I don't think it even comes close to being able to clear him as town. Strong Scum Based on his day 1 play, I thought shining might've been scum. But he's really stepped it up since then. I think he's made some bad calls and reads, but I believe it's due to his newness rather than him being scum. I'd say he's more misguided town. Soft town read for now. Going to quote directly from my notes: "Gumdrops is an inactive scummy fuck". He's not helping town at all. From his last post: On January 08 2015 08:10 Gumdrop wrote: I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now. I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen. First he offers a piss-poor "I didn't agree with his (WarWaffle) thoughts, without explaining what he means at all. Then this "paralyzed with inaction" not knowing what to do crap. If he didn't know what to do, why is he not posting in the thread asking questions and figuring out what to do? Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read. So thats my first thoughts. I'll also say it looks like we do not have a vigi, as I'd expect the vigi to shoot night 1. | ||
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On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote: HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about. What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now. Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset. I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me. So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train. I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion. | ||
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As doc if you hard claim you're dead at night regardless, so soft claim is better. As vig if you hard claim you can still get your night kill off, and doc may protect you. As Veteran if you hard claim, yeah you can't absorb a mafia hit anymore but now we have a confirmed town. This is a good thing. As Cop if you hard claim, doctor can protect you at night. I know it's not 100% sure thing we have a doc (chances are we don't have a doc and a cop tbh, the combo is too good), but I think in every situation but doctor you hard claim if you are going to be lynched. | ||
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On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. You are lying and I can prove it. On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.... --- ...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me. On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again. Oh really? On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there. I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore. At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes: On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + @ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it You finally go back on to LS with: On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote: + Show Spoiler + Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations. But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post:: On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2015 05:13 Half the Sky wrote: ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think. Game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome LS filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post: On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote: + Show Spoiler + Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being. Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town. Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky. Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions. Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game. sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town. meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum. alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions. Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do. kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :| Look Familiar? HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him. So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe: Liars should be lynched People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental. ##Vote: Celestial | ||
ExO_
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On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you. It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that. | ||
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On January 09 2015 05:05 Tubesock wrote: Also, I'll vote Lightning. But I should let you all know it's 100% fucking ragevote. I do think he's going to flip town. If you really believe that, it's incredibly poor play. And it doesn't even make sense. There's nothing to rage about right now. While I think he looks scummy as hell with his over-concern with appearing innocent and lack of trying to find scum at all, he's not being rude or anything. Explain this to me. | ||
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On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote: Do I seriously have to spell this out? Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS: Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting. Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this: To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat. No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town. I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then? Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting. I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did. You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game. Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all. I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS. | ||
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Right now you appear to me desperate to get the vote off of you and on to anybody else. And from where I'm sitting you look scummy as hell | ||
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On January 09 2015 07:19 LightningStrike wrote: I not bothering because everyone is scum reading me. I giving zero fucks for now unless you provide a TLDR on the conspiracy stuff because I can't make anything out of that big post. Holy fuck are you kidding me? You cant defend yourself unless he gives you something to defend it with? People think you are scum in part because you won't make a read without piggy backing off someone else. Now you can't even defend yourself?? If you are town you need to at least try. | ||
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On January 09 2015 07:27 LightningStrike wrote: I BEEN TRYING WHY THE HELL I GIVING UP RIGHT NOW? okay. then tell me your top 3 scum, with reasoning why. Lets start fresh and see where we end up. | ||
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Why do you think mafia nked trfel? | ||
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On January 09 2015 07:43 Tubesock wrote: They are both town. In no world I see Trfel dying if there is 1 or more mafia in LS or Shining. Walk me through this. Why wouldn't trfel die if just LS is mafia? | ||
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On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote: Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is? | ||
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##Celestial | ||
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On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote: I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why? | ||
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Ill be on for as long as I can, and if the movie starts on time I should be out just before EoD. | ||
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If he flips scum it'll be easy to see that scum all bussed him because they were afraid. And since he had a bit of attention on day 1 as well, I think it'll be easy to work out who might be scum. Compare this to day 1, in which we lynched a town. The votes where everywhere. It'd be surprising to me if all the mafia ended up on the same town wagon. On the other hand, if he flips town then this gets really hard. it could be that LS has had too much momentum on him all of day 2, but when Tube and I were both pushing Celestial nobody else even tried to get another wagon going, or jumped on Celestial....which now that I think about it might be revealing. Still, we'll have a much better idea in 15 minutes. | ||
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:/ | ||
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Hopefully in a few hours itll be fixed and I can look over things. But fixing my machine takes priority over everything | ||
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I'm not sure what exactly rsoultin is trying to say here. That somehow I wasn't scum hunting? I feel like I'm one of the few in the thread that's at least tried. For all the talk, I pushed Celestial day 2, because I thought his play was scummy. Hell he might be scum now. I'm not 100% sold on his doc claim. But what did everybody else besides tubesock do? Just stuck on LS. I scumread LS on day 1. I thought WW was kinda scummy too. And based on his play I feel like the lynch on WW was justified. For a blue town role, WW played like garbage. I think the same of LS, for a town role he played very poorly. And I can tell you since I scum read LS on day 1, it's very easy for me to stay on him day 2. I have an ego, I want to be right and be able to say "check out how good I am, I picked him out on day1!". But it didn't go down like that. That being said, you've gotta be kidding me. I don't switch off of the votes day 1 because it wasn't necessary. I think I would've preferred LS lynch day 1, but the WW lynch made sense to me. And as I've said previously, I would've switched to WW if vote shenanigans went down at the last second. My read on LS was wrong. But at least I'm trying to scum read people. And I'm trying hard not to tunnel vision on the first scum read I make. If you have questions for me ask. I'll do my best to explain anything I've said. I can tell you for sure though I am not scum, and I think my play this game shows that. | ||
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On January 11 2015 06:18 rsoultin wrote: To be honest with you, ExO...I don't get your LS/WW progression because of your argument with Trfel It seems like you're pushing him toward WW in that post, while staying on LS, after you already said you wouldn't move your vote from LS. Afterwards you claimed that you'd move after you were asked about the fit you threw after flip, but nothing about it beforehand. I thought WW was scummy, but LS was my top read. I said I wouldn't move my vote from LS because it wasn't necessary, but I 100% would have if last second vote changes had gone done. | ||
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Nobody tried to disturb the status quo, meaning I might've been on the wrong track about LS. However I really did think LS was going to flip scum, and that mafia were heavily bussing. | ||
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On January 11 2015 07:37 rsoultin wrote: This is the first time you mention making a vote change, ExO, after I questioned your reaction to the flip. You didn't leading up to EoD. If you did, please link me to it, because I'm not seeing it. I'm sorry, but anyone can concoct a story later. On January 08 2015 14:33 ExO_ wrote: I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me. So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train. I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion. Check the date | ||
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And yeah that's the first time I mentioned a vote change. No vote shenanigans went down, so I didn't need to change my vote. If you're working from the assumption I'm scum, think about that for a second. Why would I bother telling everyone I thought the case on WW was fine and I would've switched my vote to him? If I'm scum, I have my vote stuck on another person and can argue that I really thought they were scum and that's why I didn't switch. Why wouldn't I just jump on the train initially? It doesn't make any sense. | ||
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On January 11 2015 07:50 rsoultin wrote: It doesn't make any sense that with your vote parked on LS and trfel saying he was voting for LS, that you started arguing with him that the WW wagon had merit. That's bugging me. It's like you wanted him to settle there even though your choice was LS. Who was I arguing with that the WW wagon had merit exactly? | ||
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On January 11 2015 07:48 rsoultin wrote: So all that statement meant was that you could be wrong? Then why did you say we'd have a "much better idea" in 15 minutes? Again, it's not to be super picky about wording, but that implies you actually thought that there was some sort of significance to LS flipping town and you and Tube pushing Celestial earlier. We'd know in 15 minutes whether LS was town or scum. We'd have a much better idea of what? I'm not sure what you're getting caught up on. We'll have a much better idea of what the game looks like after LS flipped, one way or the other. | ||
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On January 11 2015 08:13 rsoultin wrote: That's the post I'm referring to. Am I misinterpreting it? Well you made it sound like I'm pushing him off LS onto WW. That's not the case. I thought the case on WW was decent based on the fact that his reads were just plain horrible and wrong. It most certainly was not a policy lynch which was the main point I was trying to make. You've taken that, and turned it into me telling somebody not to vote for one of my scum targets. | ||
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On January 11 2015 08:18 rsoultin wrote: -squints at- It just read to me like you had somewhere to go, some sort of read, analysis, something, that would have followed from an LS town flip. I mean...what really did that lynch by itself say? At least looking at the votes it just says everyone piled on LS when we shouldn't have -_-. So I was expecting some sort of follow-up that never came :/ What I really thought was going to happen, is LS flips scum. This would've meant mafia bussed him heavily. Then we could've gone back and looked at where the votes ended day 1 and figured out who was bussing. On day 1 it looks like the mafia spread their votes out, then day 2 piled them all on the same target. I thought based on day 1, mafia would try to spread their votes out again, and we'd only see a pileup like that if they were bussing. | ||
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On January 11 2015 08:23 rsoultin wrote: Gosh this is eating at me. You said that his flipping town would be telling though >< And yeah, of course if he flipped scum it was a massive buss. Every single player was on him o.0. Because I'm considering multiple scenarios? From my point of view right now you are trying to nit pick everything I said and hopefully something makes everyone think I'm scum. I'm not. I've done my best to help town, and yeah my read on LS was wrong. But I'm not getting a lot of help from anybody else. | ||
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On January 11 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote: Okay, well...we're running out of time for the night phase, so I'm going to put my thoughts into one post. Town reads: HTS, Tube, JarJar (less certain on my brother and almost completely certain on the other two, but he legitimately does predictions based on statistics for a living and his voting patterns have been logical and in-line with his reads) Nullish/Do Not Lynch Day 3: -Celestial-, Scott (doc claim/breadcrumbs and AFK replacement respectively) Would Lynch: - ExO (90% certain) his scumhunting seems more like throwing darts at a board (at the risk of sounding hypocritical) and his read progression/interactions with Trfel at EoD Day 1 especially, including the rage!fit after the flip, seem insincere to me...a good idea would be to check if his pushes start up after thread sentiment has already begun to swing that way (I know the Celestial one did) - Shining (70% certain) for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now, but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW, says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-, then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?) - Silver (least certain) she never stepped up. could be newb play, but all I see from her filter is sheeping and I'm not getting the feeling that she cares to find scum, especially since she dropped the people she was scumreading to sheep me Day 1 (which is sad to say cause I <3 my silver ^^)...her big posts only come after she's prodded for them, contain a lot of fluff, and the rest are mostly excuses Final Comment: With the breadcrumbing, I think that Celestial is a likely mislynch. Please, if I am not here to provide my input, whatever you decide, be really certain before you lynch an un-CCd role. I was the first to bring up Celestial rsoultin. Tube didn't start on him until after I did. Are you lying, or have you just not read the thread? | ||
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Half the Sky jarjarbinks scott31337 Silverarte ExO_ -Celestial- Tubesock This is the remaining players. Out of these: Myself, HTS, Tubesock have all been very active and helpful. Celestial is still a question mark in my mind. Leaving: JarJar, Shining, scott, Silverate I think the lynch has to be one of those 4. b/c scott was the inactive gumdrops it's hard for me to see lynching him right off the bat. Silverate has posted next to nothing. Jarjar is impossible for me to read: He isn't very articulate and I've largely ignored what he has to say. But my impression as of this moment without filter diving isn't that he's scum, it's that he's just pretty "meh" town Shining had a lot of suspicion on him day 1. Day 2 I seemed to think he was just playing poorly on day 1, and wasn't scum. But now his case needs to seriously be looked at. Until I go filter diving, it'll be hard for me to push somebody. I feel like because we let the inactives chill so much, we're really paying for it now. I think in future games I'll be more likely to go for inactives early on, so that I won't have to wonder "is that player with almost no posts a mafia? or an inactive town?". Anywho, I'm supposed to be playing video mafia in 30 minutes (though I suspect not enough will show up) and then I'm going to stream civ. I don't feel like doing a lot of intense reading b/c I'm depressed with the current state of this game. | ||
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I've skimmed everything. I'm sure I don't have it all down. But Silverate has claimed cop, without a counter claim. This means he will die tonight. I really think Celestial fake claimed doctor. But I think after another day it'll become more obvious if he did or not. Right now it looks like to me the leading lynch candidates are shining and jarjar. Could somebody give me a brief explanation of the reasoning on both? Also if there are any questions about my actions I'll gladly answer them. I think if you look at my play It's pretty clear I am town, especially since I've been cleared by silv. | ||
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##Vote: JJB | ||
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Scott, JarJarBinks, and Celestial. | ||
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On January 13 2015 09:10 jarjarbinks wrote: Totally wasn't! I think I will never say the word "number" again in this game! Although I definitely will be using them! They were clearly wrong though lol. To me it looks like complete bullshit | ||
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On January 13 2015 09:16 Damdred wrote: Seriously though why wouldn't you guys listen to shining about how there cannot be a medic and a vet in a twelve person game. Especially when newb 12 person games generally only have 2 roles in it, crazy LS didn't talk about this. Medic+vet is way to town favored lol Because if we lynch a scum, and with the results of the following night it should become obvious that he was lying. | ||
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