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On June 08 2015 10:44 Shendelzare wrote:+1. I haven't seen much in the way of reasoning on any of your reads. Besides OMGUS. Now I'm out. I am going to post a decent amount tomorrow via phone because I have a very long car ride.
Next day I will probably be pretty active
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I've been reading the filters of both VE and TT from d1. I'm on a phone so it would be hell on earth for me to do a shitton of quoting so here it goes:
Both call each other town pretty early on Both push votes on townies (though of course I am not confirmed townie) As soon as I park a very early vote on TT, VE scum reads me I'm pretty sure all of TTs d1 list (GG, me, milo, SL) is town and gives him flexibility to bandwagon as he pleases Additionally, although his posts regarding me are all cautious (need to read more, you are all three probably town) he puts me second on his list
I'll read n1 and d2 soon too but again I'm on my phone so it takes me a while to structure a post adequately Still not sure who third scum is, at this point I'm finding damdred unlikely
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Unfortunately you'll probably die tonight :/
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Hell yes! I think we actually have a good chance now too because if we'll be 8-3(?) after the end of n2 hat means we can narrow ourselves down to a comfortable 6-1 eventually
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On June 09 2015 03:06 Shendelzare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2015 01:41 Chocolate wrote: I've been reading the filters of both VE and TT from d1. I'm on a phone so it would be hell on earth for me to do a shitton of quoting so here it goes:
Both call each other town pretty early on Both push votes on townies (though of course I am not confirmed townie) As soon as I park a very early vote on TT, VE scum reads me I'm pretty sure all of TTs d1 list (GG, me, milo, SL) is town and gives him flexibility to bandwagon as he pleases Additionally, although his posts regarding me are all cautious (need to read more, you are all three probably town) he puts me second on his list
I'll read n1 and d2 soon too but again I'm on my phone so it takes me a while to structure a post adequately Still not sure who third scum is, at this point I'm finding damdred unlikely I swear every post I read from you at this point screams mafia and it reminds me of that horrible case you had on KS day one. I would have hammered you if I was in play then because of the way you are framing your points. What is making either Tic/VE scum reads for their reads on each other? Like I said pushing votes on townies alone does not make some scum it's how they do it. Also the point about the D1 list is questionable when you don't consider how he prioritized or supported his reads, and having four scum reads means he's wrong on at least one so how he changes those reads should be more important at this stage. I had four scum reads when I gave my first list post so I knew I was wrong somewhere and I knew I had to re-evaluate. He is doing that FYI and so are a few others. I also find it interesting you find Damdred unlikely since at least one other player cites him for being cautious and you're calling Tic cautious so considering at least half this field is scum reading you (and if you haven't figured out already you are my top target) you might want to start pointing out some differences in where you're coming from once you're on a computer otherwise you're going to be held accountable for double standards in your reads. What? It's not the fact that he has four scum reads, it's the fact that I think all of them are town
Them supporting each other is not a scum read in itself but it strengthens my scum read on each of them
I still need to fully evaluate damdred but since he was getting a lot of heat from TT he wouldn't fit in my hypothetical scum team
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On June 09 2015 02:45 Shendelzare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2015 01:42 milo109 wrote: I swear I'm trying not to lurk, but I don't have much time to devote at the moment. I'm almost certain Fidei and Chocolate are town. I don't see why one of them would try to pocket me, and GG Templar flipping town proves that the reads we all share are legitimate. No. Just no. Maybe you're new to this so maybe I shouldn't be so harsh. Just because you all share the same reads does not necessarily mean all of you are town. That is very faulty reasoning since a scum player has perfect information (they absolutely know who is town) all he or she has to do is fake reads. The lack of skepticism (or substantiation) usually indicates someone is scum which actually would make some of the players defending Templar suspect as there were ample reasons to question his behaviour and at least two of us tried to give him a chance to work with town and resolve the issues he had but he blatantly refused. I went into Tictock's case for that very reason day two because if is he scum, there is going to be a problem somewhere in that case or his approach to things. Townies pushing townies is a lot more common than you think and it happens for many reasons. I will say this yet again being right does not make someone town and being town does not mean they will have the right reads. I fully agree with this fwiw
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Also re my case on KS, yes, it was shit
However, in my mind it was either me dying (I know I'm town) vs KS dying (20% chance he is mafia, 7% chance he is blue)
So given what I knew it was only logical to persuade others to kill him and for me to seek self preservation
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Eastern coast US
Two games before this, one as mafia, one as town
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Yes they were, there are links to them in the database thread
They were from 2012 though, and since I'm not very old I have changed a lot since then
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"And to answer your question - because you have shit the bed after day one, if it's legit vacationing or just reasons to not post - you also say who I think are town are mafia. If you are active and start doing some critical analysis, that help town with their PoE (Process of elimination) If everyone craps town rainbows, the mafia have no where to hide."
Fair enough, I'll be able to be a lot more active now (though atm formatting is difficult so it's hard to build a formal case) No way I die tonight though so I'll be able to do some good work tomorrow
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I do think you are still wrong about TT though
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On June 09 2015 17:54 Tictock wrote:I realized I haven't looked at Choco's filter lately... And now i know why. There has been like one page of filter since EoD1... this is D3 now right? Most of that is excuses and some other stuff. Here is what I picked out as interesting... His first effort at doing something after disappearing after D1. Show nested quote +On June 08 2015 00:25 Chocolate wrote: Though I think GGT may just be trying to exonerate himself if I get lynched today In fact I feel that if I die and flip town a milo/fid/GGT team could be quite possible Which flips pretty quick... Show nested quote +On June 08 2015 03:44 Chocolate wrote: Actually after thinking about it I don't think milo is scum, you guys are right in that whatever he did at the end of the day is pretty indicative of alignment (though do recall he didn't actually change his vote)
Hopefully I have some time in the next few hours to make a vote, if not sorry Then he takes this stand... Show nested quote +On June 08 2015 05:09 Chocolate wrote: I'm voting TT
Don't wanna vote GGT because I think he's town.
GGT makes a compelling case (I know this is a shitty reason to vote someone but I had no time today) and since I think he's town I'm going TT
Really sorry for not being more productive, when I get back home I promise I'll kick the posting up a notch Really? Choco thinks GG has the most compelling case D2? Wasn't he scumming GG? What is Choco thinking himself though? Show nested quote +On June 09 2015 01:41 Chocolate wrote: I've been reading the filters of both VE and TT from d1. I'm on a phone so it would be hell on earth for me to do a shitton of quoting so here it goes:
Both call each other town pretty early on Both push votes on townies (though of course I am not confirmed townie) As soon as I park a very early vote on TT, VE scum reads me I'm pretty sure all of TTs d1 list (GG, me, milo, SL) is town and gives him flexibility to bandwagon as he pleases Additionally, although his posts regarding me are all cautious (need to read more, you are all three probably town) he puts me second on his list
I'll read n1 and d2 soon too but again I'm on my phone so it takes me a while to structure a post adequately Still not sure who third scum is, at this point I'm finding damdred unlikely There he goes back on VE suddenly... He also threw out this weak read on Shen Show nested quote +On June 08 2015 05:18 Chocolate wrote: Actually I don't think Shen is mafia for this reason
If I were scum I'd never be as inactive as SL was the first day, even if I were about to get replaced Shen being very active today tells me more that he is trying to do town more of a service than dispel the read people were getting on sl
He was also pushed moderately day1 before and after I brought it up which I don't have a good reason to feel suspicious but strikes me as fishy (though I do recognize that I was part of that crowd) Sorry it's not much of a case... but that's all there was in his filter. The flip in his reads looks pretty odd to me. It weakens my idea of Milo and Choco being scum partners that Choco would even suggest Milo as scum, but he takes back to read fairly fast so I'm not sure. He also flips really hard on GG while giving no reasons. I also dislike how VE just suddenly pops back up in Choco's scum reads. I find it especially interesting because it looks like he does this AFTER he starts scumming me, then gives some weak association to backup why. Honestly none of it looks good. Ve has been a pretty strong scum read of mine for a while, I just haven't been able to convince anyone else for a while so it's not something I'm going to keep pushing
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On June 09 2015 17:59 Tictock wrote: I think I'll stop there for the night.
I'm starting to like the idea of a scumteam of Choco, Milo, and Fidei atm...
Milo being scum makes a lot more sense if Choco is scum. I could also see Fidei being on the team since he has been supporting Choco a fair bit for very little reason. Funny, I think all of these people are town
You really do have such a good track record of reads, you know that? It's certainly suspicious to always be right, but even moreso IMO of always being wrong
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I went back to look at the first day of reads
All of TT's scum reads were either quickly withdrawn (KS, ritoky, damdred) confirmed town(SL, GG, arguably milo) and me
Now, it's not conclusive evidence at all, but I think this is pretty damning. TT initially was only leveling accusations at people who were town (other than me, damdred, and arguably milo, who we are not sure about).
All of our flips so far have been town so this is true of lots of people. However, ALL BUT THREE of these 7 people are confirmed town.
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I've done it several times and I don't have a whole lot to add, but here's some supporting evidence
[quote People I'd probably lynch in spite of them probably being spewed town: sicklucker
People I'm looking at filters right now to decide if I think they are the lynch today instead of Chocolate: GGTemplar
People I'd lynch remorselessly: Chocolate milo[/quote] Again, like with TT, all of these are either confirmed town, me, or milo
One thing I would like to bring to light is his case against GGT. He seems really irked by the fact that GGT was going after TT for some reason...
On June 06 2015 17:05 VisceraEyes wrote:GGTemplar spent most of the game giving hard townreads based on very early posts, and he spent a lot of time justifying those reads. I concede that the most blatant example of this, his reads on Nydus and Ticktock shown here, was at the behest of another player. However, if you'll kindly turn your packets to page 2 of his filter, you'll see a similar behavior throughout, with no prompting. I've explained here my meta reasoning for thinking he's mafia based on behavior - I would have expected him to try and get a read on me early if he's town. He explained numerous times that he didn't find the interaction between Chocolate and myself to be alignment indicative. Yet today, he's trying to use THAT against me. He also does small nuanced things like trying to appeal to authority and appeal to emotions. Further, his push on Ticktock reads to me as an attempt to remain consistent with his reads yesterday. It's convenient that he had a (very justified *winkwink*) either/or read on Kickstart/Ticktock, and somehow by the grace of God (but conveniently not by Templar's hand) Kickstart the jailer got lynched yesterday, and today EVEN WHILE OMGUSING ME, he maintains that Ticktock is the likeliest shot at mafia. He's not reevaluating the game at all, he's trying to remain consistent while pushing a specific agenda. Everyone should vote for GGTemplar today. He is the most likely mafia at this point in the game, I would say even more so than Chocolate. The only thing that makes me doubt it is the fact that he wasn't voting EoD yesterday, but as far as I know he thought he was or something.
A large percentage of VE's posts contain something like "I'm vomiting town" or "I'm owning mafia" which to me seems like a subliminal way of keeping up his appearances even though his track record is abysmal
I'm actually very surprised that not many others seems to subscribe to the VE/TT mafia team hypothesis. I think it just becomes pretty apparent as you read their filters
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Anyway if I do die today I ask that you guys pretty please vote VE or TT
I'm not willing to vote Onegu or Damdred right now at all, I really want one of my potential scum team lynched
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Well I'm mostly stuck on D1 with you because you post a lot and have long posts so it's taking me a long time to get through all of it
"So @ Fidei We might well be back in OMGUS spitting on each other here. Besides myself who are thinking is scum?
I actually liked your points about Onegu. My issues with voting him early were that he would really just be a coinflip given his play, and there seemed to be better targets each day. Now I'm not sure if he's switching up his meta from what people have suggested, or if he's just useless town. I saw him pick it up on D2, not sure why that stopped... " More of TT trying to position himself to bandwagon on town, what a surprise
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It isn't but being consistently wrong and (in my eyes) continuing to be wrong is pretty scummy to me
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Because it's easy for scum to win if they can continually lynch town and go "well town is always wrong a lot, nothing wrong with that! btw let's lynch this other guy who totally isn't town"
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