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On July 29 2015 04:04 NocturneMage wrote: Just got home from work.
So people don't want to lynch Sulfurus - reading his last few posts and I have some questions.
- why is he looking at disformation (between him and Breshke)
If you remember this list:
On July 25 2015 07:52 Sulfurus wrote:Towns- raynpelikoneet
- Damdred
- Flexes
- Breshke
- ruXxar
- rels
And ofcourse lynches in order of aproximate scumyness Lynches- Barakos
- MoosyDoosy
- n00bKing
- NocturneMage
- TickTock
- disformation
I apologize to disformation for putting your name on the list; I think your probably town but I needed a sixth name.
He is saying that Breshke dropped down a lot and is now fighting with me for the last place in his scum list.
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On July 29 2015 04:41 MoosyDoosy wrote: *shrugs* For me this is a good test to sniff out alignments through reactions of all parties involved. To be truthful I was reluctant to switch and with this quick change in voting, things do seem a bit off. But I think this lynch will at least give us a ton of info.
subtly setting yourself up for a "told ya so"?
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On July 29 2015 04:44 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2015 04:43 disformation wrote:On July 29 2015 04:41 MoosyDoosy wrote: *shrugs* For me this is a good test to sniff out alignments through reactions of all parties involved. To be truthful I was reluctant to switch and with this quick change in voting, things do seem a bit off. But I think this lynch will at least give us a ton of info. subtly setting yourself up for a "told ya so"? Yes. Nah, just saying the obvious. We're all thinking the same thing but not saying it.
Not too sure about the ton of info, but the landslide voting is worrying me a tad.
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On July 29 2015 04:46 Damdred wrote: This is interesting.
Everyone who has moved why did you move to the Scott wagon.
Well:
On July 28 2015 06:07 disformation wrote: [...] If scott doesn't up his game I will be willing to vote for him. [...]
On July 28 2015 22:26 disformation wrote: [...] Read Scott's filter. Don't like him jumping on every decent case he sees but I don't mind his attempt at VCA that much. Though overall his contribution so far is kinda lacking. Tempted to maybe give him another day. But also depends on how much more/less likely I judge ruXxar/TT/MD to be scum. [...]
On July 29 2015 02:39 disformation wrote: [...] like... is the scum team Breshke + flexes/scott ?
On July 29 2015 02:49 disformation wrote: TBH would vote Scott (not looking good + POE) or Breshke atm. MD or TT could be scum, but I don't strongly believe that and am not sure who of the two is more likely to be scum.
On July 29 2015 03:53 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2015 02:49 disformation wrote: TBH would vote Scott (not looking good + POE) or Breshke atm. MD or TT could be scum, but I don't strongly believe that and am not sure who of the two is more likely to be scum. Show nested quote +On July 29 2015 03:44 Damdred wrote: Fuck it moosey is probably town here.
So Scott or breshke.
Since I have a 100% winrate with lynching scott D1 so far... ##vote scott31337
TDLR: After not getting it for a while I agree that lynching off the barakos wagon has a good chance of hitting scum. Town lean on ruXxar and while MD and TT look somewhat shady I am not confident enough on either of them flipping scum to be happy with a lynch (would consolidate, but not rly happy). So by PoE it kinda has to be scott and his performance so far has been everything but hot.
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On July 29 2015 04:55 Damdred wrote: Everyone comments on mages now, his re-entrance to the thread and his subsequent vote make m think scum.
Hmm. He is quite quick to jump on the most promising/consented wagon each time he appears on D2. Did kinda of the same D1 on Barakos though. The stuff on Sulf was a misunderstanding and some decent points.
The other stuff is some points and notes... but like I am not seeing a scum tell here. Am I missing something?
Unless you think he is a hypocrite because his voting pattern is similar to scott's or something? Though in comparison I like NocturneMage's post more than scotts...
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##unvote so much for that.
Sooo... mages or TT... give me a second here
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The three remaining ppl should also switch of scott... not really happy right now. =/
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On July 29 2015 05:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2015 05:53 disformation wrote: The three remaining ppl should also switch of scott... not really happy right now. =/ Why are you not voting? Your vote is not counted if you did too.
I am not very confident of either of them (mage/TT) flipping scum. Or rather not sure which one has the higher probability of flipping scum, since the PoE is getting rather small... Can't sheep our townleaders (damdred,rayn) since they decided to yell at each other instead of wanting to consolidate... =/
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On July 29 2015 06:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2015 05:58 disformation wrote:On July 29 2015 05:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:On July 29 2015 05:53 disformation wrote: The three remaining ppl should also switch of scott... not really happy right now. =/ Why are you not voting? Your vote is not counted if you did too. I am not very confident of either of them (mage/TT) flipping scum. Or rather not sure which one has the higher probability of flipping scum, since the PoE is getting rather small... Can't sheep our townleaders (damdred,rayn) since they decided to yell at each other instead of wanting to consolidate... =/ So who are you voting for instead?
*sigh* Okay. We were wanting to vote for one of the ppl not voting barakos D1. Means: TT, MD, NM, ruXxar and scott... No wait. NM has voted Barakos... nevermind then... We are not lynching ruXxar today. scott is cop and MD is green check.
okay... there is literally no choice. plus I'd prefer to not get yelled at by you. -.-
##vote Tictock
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On July 29 2015 06:44 Damdred wrote: It could be green checks only go so far
Greenchecks give me nightmares. Damn you 27ninjabunnies...
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Really glad I sheeped Rayn.
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On July 29 2015 07:12 Damdred wrote: Come on now we talk about mages why tt over mages for people?
Totally demotivated right now. Should maybe rename myself to dismotivated.
*sigh* Why TT over NM?
- Not really confident in either flipping scum as explained before.
- NM voted Barakos D1, TT did not.
- Was fearing I was not feeling the TT lynch because he was awefully friendly to me.
- Was fearing Rayn would never stop yelling until we lynch TT.
TBH feeling kinda awful atm. =/
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On July 29 2015 08:00 Damdred wrote: Let's talk about reads a bit and do work instead atm.
Also I think,Barak spewed noob town in one of his first posts as wifom as that is
Kay. My reads are atm something like:
very town: disformation: 10/10 would fuck. rayn: much town. very ego. such confirmed. wow. damdred; meta says town. posts say town. no lyncherinos.
much town: Rels: drunk. was rbed. few mehish cases. but overall very towny posts. ruXxar: hm. bit harder to explain. might just be the vibe. maybe reread? scott: apparently is cop. MoosyDoosy: bleh D1. much better N1+. green check.
meh: Sulfurus: strange poe. super low post count. was super wrong on him NSM X. NocturneMage - very new. appears to not have much time. New town player or scum playing the newb card?
prolly lunch: breshke: no clue what is current reads are. super low post count. need to look at his votes of D2.
need 2 reread: n00bKing
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So Breshke I have a hard time getting where your reads are currently. Your #1 scum is still MoosyDoosy even with green check? Your #2 scum was Flexes/Scott? You never really said so, but it is implied in your filter. What do you think of the claim? Your #3 scum was TT.
Any scum reads other than these 3 now that TT has flipped town? Any insights into some townreads other than the usual suspects/reasons?
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Also @Breshke: So if TT flipped town and scott is unCCed cop:
On July 29 2015 04:03 Breshke wrote: TT is third on the list mainly because of POE. [...]
Haven't you run out of scum reads now, with only MD remaining and 2 scum being left?
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@Sulfurus: Any changes to your POE due to the developments of D2?
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Rereading n00bKing's filter. Overall a lot of talk, but I don't see that many conclusions I would like to see from that many interactions... also like half of his filter is rels,rels,rels... WARNING HUGE WALLPOST OMG WTF!"!"!"212!!
On July 24 2015 10:34 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2015 10:23 MoosyDoosy wrote: /facepalm. I just realized that Sulfurus was in this game and that his first and only post was /in. I'm tempted to lynch him because it's my third game with him as well and he's rolled Mafia Godfather the last two times. Yeah, I actually thought my initial vote would be against Sulfurus, and then when someone asked why I made the vote, I would be like "Because he's the Godfather?" But then ruXxar made his post about how nice it felt to be carefree and under no scrutiny, and I felt compelled to put a vote on him, just to interrupt his nirvana. I'll be interested to see what Sulfurus brings to the table in this game. I felt like it was pretty easy to distinguish his scum game in Newbie 12 from his Town game in Newbie 10.
What do you think of Sulfurus meta now?
On July 25 2015 06:23 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2015 05:43 disformation wrote: + Barakos read of me is super strange/wonky. + Barakos stance on NocturneMage is super indecisive. + Barakos gives a lot of town credit to n00bKing for something that is done very easily.
1) What read do you mean? 2) I completely agree. 3) Come on, man. You mentioned earlier that Barakos might have been "buddying" with that comment. But he's not, it's obviously just a joke. He's not actually trying to give me town credit for knowing how to count. How could you think that? I've seen players try to buddy up to me before (or "pocket" me, as it seems to be called around here), and I'm definitely wary of it. But this is not an instance of that. For him to name me top town for knowing how to count is the same as if he named rayn top town for having the most letters in his screen name. Pay attention.
On July 25 2015 06:47 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2015 06:30 ruXxar wrote:On July 25 2015 06:23 n00bKing wrote:On July 25 2015 05:43 disformation wrote: + Barakos read of me is super strange/wonky. + Barakos stance on NocturneMage is super indecisive. + Barakos gives a lot of town credit to n00bKing for something that is done very easily.
1) What read do you mean? 2) I completely agree. 3) Come on, man. You mentioned earlier that Barakos might have been "buddying" with that comment. But he's not, it's obviously just a joke. He's not actually trying to give me town credit for knowing how to count. How could you think that? I've seen players try to buddy up to me before (or "pocket" me, as it seems to be called around here), and I'm definitely wary of it. But this is not an instance of that. For him to name me top town for knowing how to count is the same as if he named rayn top town for having the most letters in his screen name. Pay attention. For what it's worth I 100% agree with disformation nation here. Barakos read on n00b was cheap as they go, and I did not get the impression it was a joke at all. Okay, then I agree with Moosy. You are dumb. I cannot begin to imagine how anyone could take that comment from Barakos seriously. Not for a moment did I think he was trying to buddy up to me, or pocket me, or give a read on me. It's clearly a joke. And in fact, the post from me that he was responding to when he made the joke, was ALSO a joke. His joke plays off of mine.
On July 26 2015 11:06 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2015 09:47 ruXxar wrote: I see n00bking as this rational logic robot that picks apart people's reads when they don't make sense. Instead of scrutinizing the reads that barakos made, he instead just scoffed it off and thought it was a joke Because it WAS a joke. Barakos AFK'd the rest of the Phase, so he never came back to confirm it. But ask him after the game is over. I bet he'll tell you it was a joke.
Why are you so angry about this? You are discrediting me by telling me to pay attention and call ruXxar dumb. You could probably just have straight up ignored this. Or do you dislike being connected with barakos?
On July 26 2015 05:04 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +n00bKing wrote: I would expect Town Barakos to be able to give us better analysis on a preferred lynch target, and to do a better job of defending himself, based on prior examples of his Town play. If that doesn't happen, then he'll stay in the group of players (that also includes Sulfurus and Rels) that I would be perfectly happy to punt out of the game on Day 1. So yeah. All that stuff about him giving analysis on a better lynch target, and doing a better job of defending himself, obviously did not happen. One of the other things I was scumleaning him for (which I don't remember reading from anyone else, though I might have skimmed some of the longer cases on him, since I was already scumleaning him myself, and was waiting to see if he would come back and perform better to change my mind) was the appeal to emotion in that same post (the post that everyone hates). Appeal to emotion is a mafia tactic. He complains about the poor weather and feeling bad, and the headaches. So that he'll be a sympathetic figure in our subconscious, and not someone we want to kick out of the game right away before he can have any fun. I've seen scum players do this kind of thing in a few of the games I've been in (outside TL) and we also JUST saw JonnyLaw do it as scum in the Lost But Not Forgotten game. Any true-to-life excuse that they can use to get sympathy (without needing to lie about it) is a tough opportunity to pass up. My other arguments against Barakos feel like a re-hash, so I'll stop after just adding that one point. Since no one seems to want to help me pressure Rels...##Unvote ##Vote: Barakos Bold font added by me. Why does it like all this stuff feel like you want to lynch Rels over Barakos? The post you quoted also is super good setup to bus a mafia mate if you are unsure if he will come back or not... This was pointed out already and he explained it here:
On July 27 2015 01:25 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2015 14:27 ruXxar wrote: Sulfurous brought up a curious point though, why did n00b switch his vote from rels to barakos when he thought rels was scummier? I'll give ya 3 reasons. 1) Remember this? Show nested quote +n00bKing wrote: There is a problem, though, with Barakos' explanation that he was only reaction-testing people he played with in Newbie X. Because although that would explain why he had nothing to say about you (rayn) it doesn't explain why he gave the townread to Damdred. Damdred was NOT in Newbie X. So if Barakos can use the reaction test to form an opinion on Damdred, he should be able to use it to form an opinion on you. I would want to see him try to explain this inconsistency. And then this? Show nested quote +n00bKing wrote: I would expect Town Barakos to be able to give us better analysis on a preferred lynch target, and to do a better job of defending himself, based on prior examples of his Town play. If that doesn't happen, then he'll stay in the group of players (that also includes Sulfurus and Rels) that I would be perfectly happy to punt out of the game on Day 1. And then this? Show nested quote +n00bKing wrote:So yeah. All that stuff about him giving analysis on a better lynch target, and doing a better job of defending himself, obviously did not happen. I said what things Barakos would need to do in order to alleviate my suspicion. He never did those things. I had long expressed contentment with lynching him, so I...followed through on it. 2) Like I said, my attempts to pressure Rels weren't getting any traction. At the time that I moved my vote, having it on Rels was just barking at the moon. (In fact, I probably had about as much chance of getting The Moon lynched as getting Rels lynched.) I was at work for EoD, so there was a chance I wouldn't be around at the deadline. With Barakos having a 6-2 vote lead over Moosy, it looked pretty unlikely that there would be any late "shenannies" but I saw no reason to take any chances. I was not going to have my afk vote on Rels give anyone an opportunity to move the Noose from Barakos to Moosy. Those two reasons are good enough on their own, so feel free to skip this third one if you want, because it may not make sense to you anyway. 3) In the Mafia-by-forum games I played before coming to TL, there was normally a variation on the Vigilante role, that worked a little differently from how he works in this game. And there were roles that could "Pardon" someone who was lynched, so that they didn't die. In an instance like that, the Vigilante goes and attacks whoever he voted against that Day. That lets the Scum look at the vote count and eliminate some people as potentially being the Vigilante. The more scattered the votes are, the more it helps them narrow down the Vigilante's identity. This gives the Town incentive to consolidate votes toward the EoD. So I have this long-standing instinct drilled into me, to do vote consolidation, and it keeps me from leaving my vote uselessly stranded on Rels when no one else is voting against him.
Could still be a bus? n00bKing was rather late on the wagon after all. He was the 7th on this wagon. Not that much room for mafia to make crazy plays... Also:
On July 27 2015 01:33 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2015 17:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 26 2015 17:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: n00bKing you need to explain how you think it is possible Rels is mafia, or rather how does his stance on Barakos and what he has pushed on D1 not clear him but on the other hand your stance on Barakos and other people and what you did makes no sense from scum perspective.
Like let me clarify:
Rels; is the first one who points out Barakos' scummy post. Calls him mafia. Votes for him early on (tbh i pushed him to do it but i also pushed everyone else to do it). Does not push anything else on D1, doesn't even think about it.
n00bKing; Admits Barakos' post is bad. I don't remember what you called him, it's already evident you at least REALLY didn't call him mafia (because i DO remember when people ACTUALLY call someone mafia). Is one of the last people to vote for him. Pushes Rels all day long, never touches the case on Barakos aside from off-hand comments on him.
And from these actions you decide that "Rels is not clear but my stance on things make no sense from scum perspective"?!??! What the....why does this post look like a quote, when you had never said this before? lol, anyway... Yes, me pushing Rels all day long makes no sense from a scum perspective. If I had been teamed with Barakos, I would have either: 1) Gotten Moosy lynched in Barakos' place (which looked entirely possible, based on thread sentiment). or 2) Bussed the living snot out of Barakos. Pushing on Rels does NOT maximize my chances of getting a mislynch and saving Barakos. Pushing on Rels ALSO does NOT maximize my chances of getting Town cred when Barakos flips Red. My Day 1 play makes no sense, as a teammate of Barakos. Explaining the play from Rels on Day 1, as a teammate of Barakos, is comparably much easier. He bussed him. Explanation over.
Which is kinda WIFOM.
D2 he starts the train on Sulfurus. Not sure if mafia!n00bKing would boldly start a wagon like this. Not sure how many ppl had expressed interest in lynching Sulfurus at that point.
On July 27 2015 05:13 n00bKing wrote: #6: Ticktock - As he pointed out, we're on the same page about virtually everything. When I notice a flawed argument and wait for someone to point out the same problem with it that I see, he has done that a time or two. When I ask him a question, he gives me the answer I want to see. And sometimes, when I think about asking him a question, he gives me the answer I want to see before I actually get the question posted. Hated the tarot stuff, but he's been a useful contributor since. Don't mind seeing him get a few answers from the "Town leaders" since no one else was doing it. Think his defense of Barakos would have been awfully bold if he were Scum, in a setup that guarantees either a Cop or Vigilante.
On July 27 2015 13:22 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 12:38 Tictock wrote: So if rayn is our vet there is no reason for our Vig or Doc to claim. Jesus, Ticktock. If rayn is our vet there can't BE a Doc. You JUST posted the setup roles, in the post before this one. lol Upgrading Ticktock from Town to DumbTown (which is even bettter).
On July 27 2015 17:31 n00bKing wrote:I already upgraded him from Town to DumbTown. If Ticktock is Scum, I'll eat my hat.
Kinda explains his strong TT read...
On July 29 2015 06:35 n00bKing wrote: REASONS TO THINK TICKTOCK IS TOWN
1) Tarot crap needlessly draws attention to himself and makes people irritated with him, especially after a late entrance to the thread. WIFOM is in play here, but this is slightly Town-indicative, because it is self-detrimental for the Scum version of himself.
2) Questions the "bigs" when no one else is doing so. This again makes him conspicuous. Challenging the Town leaders will make them more likely to want to lynch him later (and boy are we seeing that from rayn) but he shows no fear of those consequences.
3) Named me as a Top Town read, and said he's "never lynching me." I'm the only player that (at that stage of the game) he could name as Top Town, and I could be sure he's right about it. I don't have any reason to think that TickTock would believe I could be "pocketed" by this type of move. So it looks legit.
4) Half of Breshke's participation in this game has been due to prodding from TickTock. This could be scum-motivated only if they are both Scum. Otherwise, Scum Ticktock has no interest in making Town Breshke participate more.
5) Soft defends Barakos, when a Scum player would be more likely to either bus him HARD (to maximize Town Cred) or defend him HARD (to maximize the chances of saving him). If he wasn't sure which direction to go, he would probably just not mention him at all. Instead, he participates in conversations about Barakos, but allows himself to be in a hazy middle on him. Scum is not going to be wishy washy about a guy he knows will flip Red, while Town sentiment is clearly against the guy.
6) Correctly identified the 3 players who are mostly likely to have bussed Barakos. I had the exact same 3 players in mind, and I'm Town, so it makes me think he's coming from a Town mindset as well.
7) When I interrogated him about how he selected those 3 names (without offering ANY hint as to what the correct answer might be) he gave the correct answer. He used the same process I did, and again, I know that process came from a Town mentality.
8) Was DumbTown on Day 2, forgetting that a Doctor and Veteran cannot co-exist, which a Scum player would know, because of the fact that they know the setup.
9) Was DumbTown MUCH worse on Day 2 when he said that if he was the Cop and had a redcheck on someone, he wouldn't reveal it. He said the person should stay hidden and get more checks. Because if they reveal themselves, they'll just get roleblocked or killed. This is RIDICULOUS, because if the Cop has a redcheck, it IS the roleblocker. And there are no more checks to get, because the other Scum player is the Godfather!
No Mafia player could ever make this mistake genuinely. And no Mafia player would know what I just wrote above, and yet tell the Town that if a Cop has a redcheck they shouldn't say so.
##Townshield: Ticktock
Yeah, he was right. No question. But a few of these things like 1), 3), 5), 6), 7) are either tailored to n00bKing's perspective or kinda WIFOM. Grasping for points because he KNOWS TT is town, but can't explain it very well with actual stuff?
Opinions?
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On July 29 2015 10:06 Sulfurus wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2015 09:22 disformation wrote: @Sulfurus: Any changes to your POE due to the developments of D2? Not really. The green check does make Moosy townier but he still needs to die before the game ends. Also a lot more people should have town reads on me since I was the only player to town read our cop back when it was unpopular. *dons hipster shades* BTW have you rolled mafia before Dis?
Nope. Was Town Doc in NSM 9. Was VT in NSM 10. VT this game. Will probably roll mafia in my 5th game, so I don't have a coach and will fail around super hard. :D
On July 29 2015 10:16 MoosyDoosy wrote: smh this Day ruined my fucking mood. Tictock was such a townie I don't know how anyone saw otherwise. scott is still suspicious af, ruXxar is 9000+ town because he's still spewing garbage, Breshke needs to give a fuck, rayn needs a slap in the face, disinformation needs to help me out here because he's the only one making sense to me rite now.
Yeah, feeling super bad about that lynch. -.- Where are you current reads at?
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On July 29 2015 10:23 MoosyDoosy wrote: I made this looong post where I drew up lists from all the voting times, people on me and other townies, my blanket list from earlier, and Damdred's thoughts that we shouldn't lynch people on the Barakos wagon. The list of people I was left with was Tictock/Breshke/scott/Sulf/ruXxar/Mage.
I read Tictock as town, scott claimed, ruXxar is 9000+ town, leaving us Breshke/Sulf/Mage.
I can post the post which I made before everyone started flip flopping through votes like fish if you guys want to see it but I decided not to post it and see how things turned out. Either way, it looks like the list is still good to go and my thoughts were only further confirmed by this mislynch.
got ninjaed.
Yeah, breshke super shady right now.. all the PoE's lead to Mage somehow. Kinda waffly about Sulf atm.
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On July 29 2015 10:31 MoosyDoosy wrote: @disformation, a lot of n00bKing's thought process does come from confirmation bias so it's fine to ignore those things. He's been doing it ever since he came to TL so I don't find it strange at all.
What I want are your thoughts on Breshke/Sulf/Mage.
Going to bed in a few mins (wanted to got to bed like 1h30 before this, it is 3:30 am local time.).
as seen a few posts above:
meh: Sulfurus: strange poe. super low post count. was super wrong on him NSM X. NocturneMage - very new. appears to not have much time. New town player or scum playing the newb card?
prolly lunch: breshke: no clue what is current reads are. super low post count. need to look at his votes of D2.
So I don't like Breshke at all currently. Asked him a bunch of questions. Depending on his answers, he could be my prefered lynch tomorrow. NM I am not sure if he is genuine new and doesn't have that much time or if he is scum playing the newb card and posting as little as possible. Sulfurus I kinda like his most recent posts and I was super wrong on him in NSM X.
Still I think these three are the most scummy players around atm. Unless like there is something to the tinfoil hat theory where you are the GF. But I think you were pretty towny so far. Maybe will reread you tomorrow.
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