Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 11
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
8/13 players alive: darthfoley Shapelog MexicanAlien Trfel PMT Kush scott Tumblewood 4 VTs, 2 role, 2 mafia Think the Eden kill suggests that scum is intent on ridding the game of experienced town players and making the noobs figure it out for ourselves. And they probably don't think i'm very good. Which is unfortunate. We really need to be careful about mislynching people. The upside is that we do still have both blue roles in the game. | ||
darthfoley
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On February 02 2016 06:04 PepperMintTea wrote: ##vote scott31337 see you wednesday Why are you so content with doing absolutely nothing? | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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On February 02 2016 06:21 Trfel wrote: Oh, so THAT'S what you meant. Thanks for clarifying, I never would have figured that out on my own. But seriously, do you have any conclusions based on the night kill? The real question is, do you have any conclusions? The great thing about being blue, is that I don't have to prove my towniness. I'm more interested in what other people have to say right now. Of course I have some theories of my own. | ||
darthfoley
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On February 02 2016 06:43 PepperMintTea wrote: i'm voting mafia nothing is what you're doing wow such sick one liners! It's actually amazing how bad your filter has become tbh. Page 1/2 compared to 3/4 are like two different players. | ||
darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
My point is: even if you're right and we correctly lynch Scott/Jesus, we still have one mafia left. Where would you go from there, and why? I feel more comfortable looking at the bigger picture at this point, than looking at one super inactive player in a vacuum. What made Jesus's play over the top scummy for you, rather than simply very inactive town? | ||
darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
Tumblewood, what do you make of the Eden NK? What advantage would that afford mafia over killing a confirmed blue role? | ||
darthfoley
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On February 02 2016 22:55 _MexicanAlien wrote: OK, so on the night kill. Why did the Mafia kill Eden1892? How does this benefit the Mafia? I've thought of two answers. 1. Eden1892 was getting too close to the truth. 2. Killing Eden1892 somehow made scum less suspicious. On answer #1 + Show Spoiler + Eden decided(with his town reads), that the Mafia must come from PepperMintTea, nooniansoong, and Tumblewood. {post #1691} He went on to scum read Tumblewood and nooniansoong. Eden saw that •Ikidomari was flip floppy on Tumblewood •Ikidomari thought Trfel was for sure Mafia •Ikidomari attacked Trfel for Trfel's tumblewood read He used this information to associate Ikidomari with Tumblewood. Eden does the same thing with nooniansoong, using the weirdness of noon's attack on Trfel, his town read on Eden, and his being on IKidomari's null/watch list. I actually this this is good case. Due to my association read of Eden1892 (which was completely wrong), I thought by more association that Trfel was scum. But definitely less likely now. If reason #1, I can believe a Tumble wood and nooniansoong scumteam. On answer #2 + Show Spoiler + Let's think of the people who would look less suspicious if Eden1892 were to die and flip town. This would include: • Eden's town reads •People who had a lot of interaction with Eden (especially near the end) The people who fit best into those categories are: _MexicanAlien Trfel darthfoley MexicanAlien. Eden1892 flying off the handle at me (loads of useless talk) but near the end giving me a 'basically confirmed town' would really help me as scum. Trfel. This guy seems to have been really buddying Eden a lot, especially for having scum read Eden. He mostly stayed in the background early in the game without making many connections, but then came out and agreed with almost everything Eden says. Also, Eden was town reading Trfel for a good amount of time, so this could leave Trfel with still a clear name. darthfoley. He's vigilante. 'Nuff said. I feel much less confident in this reason than in #1, mostly because of less powerful logic. If reason #2, Trfel is Mafia. I don't have any idea as to who his scummate would be, too tired at this point. Just some reasoning. Really tired and need to do some application forms for summer programs, catch y'all later. Using read #1, isn't the Eden NK the perfect one from PMT's perspective? If you believe that he was too close to the truth, his scum association read-- which, by the way, I really like too-- is Tumblewood + Kush. However, he lumped PMT into this category, but ended up kind of nulling/slightly clearing her (have to re-look at that). So, Eden dies, and if you believe reason #1, everyone latches onto Kush and Tumblewood. Everyone focuses in on Tumblewood and Kush because of the association read, and most forget about PMT being in that category. It would be great for her, because let's say we mislynch Kush or Tumblewood who flip town. People will probably then decide that reason #2 is the real reason Eden was NK'd. Town turns its attention to people who may have looked less suspicious from the Eden NK, and PMT coasts even farther into the game without having contributed any reads over the past two days. This is simply a hypothesis, but one I intend to pursue, on the off chance that I find anything. | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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darthfoley
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I just find his 2 page filter, 3 days into the game quite scummy. He only resurfaces when he needs to | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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On February 03 2016 02:58 _MexicanAlien wrote: If PepprMintTea is scum, I think her most logical scummate is nooniansoong If Tumblewood is scum, I think nooniansoong is the most logical scummate. If scott31337 is scum, I think nooniansong is a possible scummate. I think nooniansoong is a pretty good lynch candidate. Can you explain why you think these things? Or refer me to past posts of yours | ||
darthfoley
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On February 03 2016 04:23 nooniansoong wrote: TRFEL IS SCUM 1 All his cases are based on bullshit Remember pg 16 in his tumble case LOL... Townread on jesus for saying "shitpost;townpost" and being cocky. etc 2 No thought went into his kuragari vote The timeline is he thought kura was town, he thought kura blueclaimed, he realized kura didn't blueclaim, then he voted. Then he gives this reason only after the fact. So we get a generic, after the fact justification. 3 Ikido read is inconsistent These were his reads n1: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 11:19 Trfel wrote: Okay, I finished my analysis. I think that the mafia team is Tumblewood, Onegu, and Eden1892. I will be attempting to use a new posting style from now on. Tumblewood is mafia because:
AND he was hard defending ikido: + Show Spoiler + On January 28 2016 19:38 Trfel wrote: I'm not townreading him very strongly, but it's a slight read still. Ikidomari has been very open about feeling behind and not skilled enough. To me, this feels towny. In general, when mafia isn't skilled enough, they don't try and just give up. Ikidomari's play hasn't shown this at all. Instead, he feels relaxed and natural. His posts have felt free-flowing, and I don't think that the inconsistencies disrupt the flow of his reads from a town perspective. I realize that this is very subjective. I also feel that he's raised a few decent points that aren't so obvious. This is also subjective, though. In general, I don't like to lynch people because I don't have a good reason to townread them; if I can't show that they are scum, I don't want to lynch them. And I personally don't feel like I can show that Ikidomari is scum right now. On January 28 2016 19:42 Trfel wrote: If you really want me to respond to Eden1892's post, I don't think that reads like "I think that this person is town, but they could be scum because of this" are mafia indicative. This often comes from townies who can't make up their mind, especially in newbie games. Ikidomari also does arrive at conclusions. His reads are more like "I think that this person is this alignment because of this, but I could be wrong because of this, but I think he's more likely this alignment", which feels like a reasonable approach for him to have. To me, it feels more like he's thinking about the game and is just unsure instead of trying to avoid pinning himself to his reads. On January 30 2016 10:36 Trfel wrote: Does anyone else think that Ikidomari's post is towny? I just have a hard time seeing mafia being that baffled, or that uninformed. Or, presuming that nooniansoong is town, that skeptical (since they did actually roleblock nooniansoong). And that doesn't feel like the reaction of mafia who just caught the doctor who outed for no gain. But suddenly, when the lynch is between himself, jesus, and ikido, Ikido becomes his most confident read: + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2016 13:15 Trfel wrote: Ikidomari is mafia because of his large amount of apologies early on in the game. His activity also fits mafia motivation, instead of displaying a desire to solve the game. There are also several inconsistencies in his play. One example of this is that he repeatedly says that he is a good lynch because he is a weak player.But, the third statement doesn't match. Town doesn't say "lynch me, you should lynch me, but here's some defense". Town will, in rare circumstances, ask to be lynched and/or vote for themselves, but there is always some sort of possible town motivation behind it (generally proving that their scumreads are genuine). Here, there is none of this. He's asking to be lynched and asking to survive at the same time, which makes him mafia. One other thing to look at is how Ikidomari has been playing after the Day 1 lynch. He posted analysis, fine. He didn't have time before the lynch, so he didn't push anything or stay up to date, fine. He comes back and posts analysis, fine. Here's what else happens. Eden, arguably the person most vocally scumreading him, townreads him. Then he leaves, and comes back later with this weird post, which caused Shapelog and I to say that it was a bit towny. Then, once we said that, he just vanished. No push, no reads, no updates, just gone. And he hasn't returned since. This is extremely mafia motivated, because he's playing to survive, instead of push mafia. Ikidomari is my most confident scumread, I'm nearly positive that he is mafia. Pretty sure Tumblewood is mafia. After that, I am willing to look at Trfel again. | ||
darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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