Newbie Student Mafia XIX
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scott31337
United States2522 Posts
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scott31337
United States2522 Posts
Final vote count: Kuragari42 (6): Alur, JesusIncarnate (3): nooniansoong, Tumblewood (2): Ikidomari (0): Trfel (0): Onegu (0): PepperMintTea (0): Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Onegu Ikidomari the Mafia Goon is lynched! Final vote count: Ikidomari (4): Trfel, darthfoley, Eden1892, PepperMintTea Trfel (2): nooniansoong, _MexicanAlien, Eden1892 (1): Shapelog Shapelog (1): Tumblewood JesusIncarnate (0): Tumblewood (0): Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Ikidomari and for myself - + Show Spoiler [Jesus/scott town] + Final vote count: Kuragari42 (6): Alur, JesusIncarnate (3): nooniansoong, Tumblewood (2): Ikidomari (0): Trfel (0): Onegu (0): PepperMintTea (0): Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Onegu Ikidomari the Mafia Goon is lynched! Final vote count: Ikidomari (4): Trfel, darthfoley, Eden1892, PepperMintTea Trfel (2): nooniansoong, _MexicanAlien, Eden1892 (1): Shapelog Shapelog (1): Tumblewood JesusIncarnate (0): Tumblewood (0): Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Ikidomari I'm going to focus on day 2 first. Now two of the mafia couldn't jump on to Trfel or someone else, since the vote would be tied - unless they were on Iki wagon, or Trfel is also mafia - from who is on Ikidomari - Trfel, darthfoley, Eden (conf town now) and PepperMintTea. Now this is some sick bus if Trfel is the first vote on the Ikidomari wagon - which is too tinfoil at this point - so in my opinion none of these should be the lynch today. So let's put it that all three of those are town - + Show Spoiler [Voters for Iki] + Final vote count: Kuragari42 (6): Alur, JesusIncarnate (3): nooniansoong, Tumblewood (2): Ikidomari (0): Trfel (0): Onegu (0): PepperMintTea (0): Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Onegu Ikidomari the Mafia Goon is lynched! Final vote count: Ikidomari (4): Trfel, Darthfoley, Eden1892, PepperMintTea Trfel (2): nooniansoong, _MexicanAlien, Eden1892 (1): Shapelog Shapelog (1): Tumblewood JesusIncarnate (0): Tumblewood (0): Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Ikidomari That gives me a nice picture of who's filters to start with - I'll start with ShapeLogs first since his votes look the worst. I've got a bit to catch up though. | ||
scott31337
United States2522 Posts
On February 02 2016 07:11 nooniansoong wrote: ##vote trfel I would also vote scott. BTW thank you shape. I was really getting mad about you newbs not listening to me but you've put a shiny silver lining onto this game Do you really think Trfel bussed? | ||
scott31337
United States2522 Posts
Okay Shapelog's filter is like 21 pages - the two things that really come out to me are his dissecting of Ik's filter but never votes for him - + Show Spoiler [filter dive 1] + On February 01 2016 10:31 Shapelog wrote: PROFESSOR SHAPELOG'S UNDERSTANDING OF THE DISSECTING OF IKIDO FILTER So read progression From Ikido is as follows (and only read progression. Tomorrow will do more about Ikido and filter and "OMG GUYS I FOUND THE 2 OTHER SCUMS OMG OMG OMG" shit) Votes jesus So list is Mafia: Jesus(/S2S), Trofl, Onegu Town: PMT, Darth, Alur Eye on: Shapelog, Tumble, Kuragari Leans are: slight Scum/on the border of null and scum, _MexcianAlien, Town, kush, Eden. Weird that most people in the top 3 of everything list has died/been confirmed town (minus me, but i am town so suck it) Prob. a weird fate thing. Now lets talk about the leans on people. Lets run the hypertheocial situation that Eden (I am bringing her up because with Ikido flipping scum, she is my first suspect with being scum with him) is actually scum with ikido. I could totally see a newbie putting there scum partner off the top 3 list, even thought PMT made it on. Also his read on Eden is short so maybe scum pressured to find reasoning to town read his partner? A lot of that though is thinking though the mind of a newbie though, which is a dangerous thing to do. Though, normally, it make sense 9/10 times (to me). Maybe i am just too out of the box though (ever played in bronze/sliver leduge in Sc2 b/4) A course, this also means that Kush could also be in the exactly the same boat. A little less though since his read on kush was a bit better though. Not out of the realm of possibility. Maybe i am just nuts and the above people are town. And Mex, His scum/null lean on Mex was so bad. Mex did not came off as a noob at the start, instead i think he was pretty darn good. He obv. knows that town needs a plan of action, and was not afraid to adment it. Plus the, idk about him being scum, be he is useless, is also BS. Especially since he scum read jesus for the same thing. Well the red explains the NK on alur i guess. At least we know a little bit more about why Alur died other then being a strong town player. But this is important since we can possible conclude opinions/thoughts in the scum Qt, therefore understanding more about the scum team in general. Since Ikido actually did extactally just that in the end, we can assume that at least 1 other scum member on his team did so also. This is know as associative behavior (much like associate's scum reads), while i doubt Ikido had much to do with his teams plays (due to his very submissive behavior) we can assume that this thought process was either: Given to him by a scum team mate and therefore was that members logic for lynch. Meaning that the scum team as at least one experienced player. Which means we should look at experience players that changed votes last min, or just voted for a off wagon all together. I feel this one is most likely the case, as Ikido submissiveness would of gone along with a more experience player. Or, Was rubbed off on a another, submissive, newbie scum mate, meaning we should look at people who have voted off the beaten path, changed their votes last minute or for lack luster reasons, and is also a newbie. A course this is difficult since jesus( a newbie) did not vote. (this is very unlikely considering how the noobies left, tumbledore, jesus/S2S, and PMT, MA, are very far from submissive.) I will look into this tomorrow. If you guys want to do it so be it, but i know more for what to look for. More and more talk about what Ikido would do as scum. Even further elaboration on why he and darth/eden can not be a scum team. Will include in my behavior annalist post tomorrow. MA becomes a scum lean/ person for Ikido now. (he did not live up to pushing MA) Kind of gives credit to Kura for a town bait play. Suggests that most of Ikido's watch for list is actually towns that he is trying to find scum/town reasons to discredit or credit That list is Me, Tumble, and Kura. (A course we can not say that no one on this list is auto- town. no, in fact, this list should really be a key factor point at looking into the mind of Ikido.) After this nothing major changes in his reads. Says Noon/Kush is prob more townie to him. And that he agrees with every single case on Jesus. TLDR: + Show Spoiler + Further points in the morning and #2 On February 02 2016 04:08 Shapelog wrote: PROFESSOR SHAPELOG'S CONTINUATION UNDERSTANDING OF THE DISSECTING OF IKIDO FILTER PART 2. ASSOCATION VIA BEHAVIOR NEWBIE PART There once lived a man by the name of Ikido, this man was scum and was successfully lynched Day 2. We must understand everything about who that man was. Starting with a profile. Ikido Profile: + Show Spoiler + Submissive, It was everywhere in his filter. Tone, certain posts (especially the oh well lynch me) Support, He obv. did not know about how to really lead a mafia team. Reflective: Because he is not a support (and also is a newbie) he is most likely to reflect either the coach's advice or the advice of more experience players in his scum QT. There are certain things in his filter: that last point about other players having a case against him is important to me, I don't want to mis-lynch someone, in the off chance that it's a close vote, and my vote tips the scales. That points to him listening to his team mates or not being told other wise is better. The latter could be explain that he took on the opionons of a more experience player. His views may also be latched onto other new mafia members, especially 1st time players. Minimalist, Ikido only posted enough to make him appear either towny (as evident by me and trofl saying his post looked a bit more towny) Mean he only felt like he needed to post a few things and never follow up on it. Lack of Original content also suggests this. Paranoid Is suggested by his "Just fuck it and lynch me" even though a Ikido lynch was not even picking up steam for day 1. Summary: I believe the reminding scum team is one newbie (1st timer) and a experience player. In order to determine who could be his newbie partner. We must profile the list of 1st timers. And look for those who share Ikido thought process and slash or even could of had his thought process after his death. And, A course, those who are still alive. As i am busy man. Things to look for in the newbie department is traits SHARED from Ikido to X. This is going to be a bit tough due to most of them not posting a lot. Still can be done. PMT Profile + Show Spoiler + Knows a little bit of human behavior. And Could lead team/give advice that would be taken up by a scum buddy On January 27 2016 08:41 PepperMintTea wrote: Many people talk too much or over explain to counter feeling nervous or anxious. It is a fairly common issue. Also seems to me that, if, PMT is scum. She would push theses ideas into the scum QT for ikdio. She knows that nervousness can be overcome by posting (at least she thinks so) therefore, hypercritically, she would of suggested that Ikido post more. Some Minimalist Ideals I like to say, before i quote things. That she also has done things against this. On January 27 2016 19:32 PepperMintTea wrote: I will be here for another 10 minutes and then I have to leave, if you have any questions then ask them now, otherwise I will get to them this evening. On January 27 2016 18:03 PepperMintTea wrote: As to nooniansoong's point about me leaving the thread, I have to say that after my first observations I waited in the thread for probably 30 minutes or more and happily answered his questions. After it seemed no more questions were forthcoming I went to sleep as I get up early each day. It seems an unfair statement that I didn't linger because I was not wanting to be exposed when I happily answered his questions. ^ This is probly the best support for this. That she saw nothing (from a scum perspective) to push for. Therefore leaves shortly after. A course, this is hard to say for certain if she is Minimalist because of the fact she seems to have a RL excuse. And the Minimalist has not been on the same degree of Ikido. Problem solver The amount of questions show that she is digging for more info. Therefore is not a support to mafia, and instead, is a leader (or figure of power) that is trying to find info out for mafia. Summary: Has some similar Traits. But, overall would be a leader and is not Ikido newbie scum mate. Tumbledore + Show Spoiler + Opportunistic On January 27 2016 11:30 Tumblewood wrote: Read over the thread, and these are my reads so far: Town: (none yet) Leaning Town: Alur, Trfel Null: PepperMintTea, nooniansong, Onegu Leaning Scum: darthfoley, _MexicanAlien Scum: Shapelog My reasoning on Shapelog: Shapelog has acted generally like a newbie scum player all game. He started the game off with about five jokes and no content. Given that this is day 1, that's not too important. I'm not sure how to feel on the weird read toward nooniansong, because it doesn't necessarily feel scummy or townie, just poorly informed. But the posts that really strike me are: and In both of them, he mentions something about not being scum. Why would a townie ever do that? Why would anyone ever do that? "Unless your scum team kills me," and, "Yet to roll mafia sadly," are things normal townies don't just drop. It just screams to me, "Oh boy, what a shame I'm not mafia!" Also, "I am always Sus. on my D1's" doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I haven't played with Shapelog before. On January 27 2016 12:13 Tumblewood wrote: I remember some slight town lean posts and nothing scummy, so that was enough to put him up there in my memory. Looking through his filter, though, there's not much to put him on one side or the other. If I had to redo that list, I'd swap Onegu and Trfel. comes in trying to find reasons to scum read me. Over the course of the game has tried to scum read people, but often finds nickpicks and board reasons to call people scum (in the same posts no less). Has done less of this yesterday, but prob. is because we said something about it. Minimalist. Look at his time stamps and his whole 2 page filter featuring bursts of activity followed by inactivness. Stubborn Has Tunneled me all game long. Might be for a russe but overall he has been a bit subborn. Picturing him more as a Support than a Leader On January 28 2016 14:50 Tumblewood wrote: @Ikidomari: That was not the reasoning behind my changes of opinion. I read too much into the early, early posts and found myself having to backtrack to have opinions that made sense later in the game. I agree for the most part on your other reads, but I'm not quite following what you said on Trfel; it seems like you're saying he both jumped on and started the lynch bandwagon. Could you clarify? ##Vote JesusIncarnate unless I see something that convinces me he's town. Half of his filter is just him answering questions directed to him. And while there is some leadership moments in his filter. Most of it is just big posts that lead to no where. Also I am not getting a leader vibe, and since i am not getting it. He is support. Paranoid OMGUS Me and Trofl. On January 29 2016 14:10 Tumblewood wrote: Protip: Don't sign up for a mafia game that happens during finals week. I'm finally back after voting this morning, here are my thoughts as I skim through the thread: Why are we seeing kush post reads with zero explanation and then saying, "Yeah, that's townie right there, looks good." Are they just weather vane posts? My gut says townie (especially since the other posts are solid), but I'm a little confused by these reads, since they're just a list of people. Agree on all fronts, I don't know why we got so big on Ikidomari and then got cold feet so quickly. I'm seeing scum in the "I'm sorry can you please get me another chance" attitude, but also a lot of plain newbie. Townread on MexicanAlien for sticking with the vote on me even as the Kuragari wagon picks up speed. Strong townread on darthfoley for calling out people on their reads that don't make sense. Why are Kura's scumreads all "slight" or "lean"? Kura, stop, you're backing yourself into a corner with "I'm a null." You're practically begging to be lynched at this point. "I'm actually starting to get cold feet..." Why? "Meh, maybe I'm not." Not sure if this is scummy or NAI. I'm thinking NAI, but that's still weirdly unreasoned. Aaaand a mislynch. Not sure what to look for yet in VCA (am I using that right?) except that I'm not suspicious of the early voters (Alur, darth, kush... not that I was in the first place). Trfel, what's with these reads without reasons? Seriously, where is Jesus this game. If he doesn't show up in the next eight hours, I don't think there's any way around lynching him. Someone can't just stay quiet, be unhelpful when they speak, and not be scummy for it. Unless we wait for a modkill? + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote: VCA is hard. How could you do yours so fast Darth. If we assume mafia helped push the wagon, it would've happened at a point where it wasn't obvious that the lynch would go through, so were talking the first 4 ish votes. Which would be me, Darth, PMT and Trfel. Trfel coming in as the fourth looks pretty suspicious, considering I was leaning towards him being scum. But then theres this, thing (this is how Trfel acts on the Kura vote) Followed by: There is no mafia motivation for saying the bolded part, but when you just "jk" it, it could appear like he's just trying to gain some sort of deniability, especially when combined with the "I think I'm getting cold feet". But PMT and Darth (who could potentially be pocketing me) aren't clear of suspicion either. I just don't have much to hinge that suspicion on currently. Also I'm not sure I understand Edens motivation for joining the wagon last minute. He didn't actually need to vote for it to happen. It seems like it could be a ploy to gain some towncred, because mafia don't need to touch the wagon anymore at that point. He also tried to discredit Kuragari's reads (who scumread him). I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch. I think I kind of like mexican for sticking with his lynch. He presented which players he would be able to lynch, and didn't back down on his reads to join the Kura bandwagon. This also coincides with the fact that he's a townread of mine. Some of this might be tinfoily, but that's because there aren't any conclusions that are staring me in the face. Strong townread for Alur on this. He's actively scumhunting, and his points are strong. + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 08:41 darthfoley wrote: Kuragari Wagon History Alur #573 - 1st vote Kura darthfoley #574 - 2nd vote Kura; reasoning explained PMT #761 - 3rd vote Kura -immediately unvote PMT #762 - vote Onegu (Onegu only had 1 other vote at this time, from Shapelog I believe) PMT #868 hops back on Kura train - still 3rd vote - no explanation Trfefl #869 - 4th Kura vote -Previous post claims that Kura lynch is stupid -Defending Ikido from wagon -Switches off Tumblewood -No reasoning given VC AT TIME OF PMT/Trfel Votes 4 Kuragari (Alur, darthfoley, PMT, Trfel) 3 JesusIncarnate (Noon, Tumblewood, Ikidomari) 1 Tumblewood (MexicanAlien) 1 Ikidomari (Eden) Not voted: Shapelog, Kuragari, Onegu, Jesus Shapelog #871 - vote Ikido (now 4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) Shapelog #872 - unvote Ikido (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Tumble, 1 Ikido) Shapelog #878 - vote Ikido, "going with gut" (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) Shapelog #894 - vote Kura (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) -Gut feeling = Ikido -Later blames going with gut on Kura vote Kuragari #935 - vote Tumblewood (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido) Eden #958 - vote Kura (6 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido) How many times did people vote? Shapelog: 4 (PMT, Onegu, Ikido, Kura) Eden: 4 (Onegu, Trfel, Ikido x2, Kura) darthfoley: 3 (Tumblewood, Jesus, Kura) Trfel: 3 (Onegu, Tumblewood, Kura) PMT: 2 (Onegu, Kura) Alur: 1 (Kuragari) This VCA is not a masterpiece, but I think it clearly throws suspicion on two people specifically: Trfel and Shapelog. Trfel #866: Trfel #869: Notice that he votes literally the post after PMT comes back to the Kuragari wagon, making it 4-3 Kura > Jesus, without giving any explanation why. Also don't like posts that start like this: Similarly, Shapelog has been on every wagon in existence: Onegu, Jesus, Ikido, and Kuragari. Gets his gut feeling mixed up (first says his gut is Ikido, later complains how his gut told him to vote Kura). There is something off about this post. I would've been okay with it perhaps early D1, but this whole "i'm so torn thing!" comes off as fake to me, especially because he only cites other people's reasons... and hasn't made one good case all game. To me, votes #4 and #5 are the votes that should be analyzed, because at 5-3 Kura > Jesus, no one was going to counter push Jesus. ESPECIALLY with Kuragari voting Tumblewood. Eden voting to make it 6-3 is NAI or maybe even slightly town, because that was the only wagon with momentum at that point. If he had hopped on and Kura had been mafia, it's a different story. In conclusion, i'm scum reading both Shapelog and Trfel I like this VCA. I agree on Shapelog and Trfel being scummy (not because of the wagoning, but it certainly puts them farther up my list), and this post voices it better than I can. Darth, Alur, and MexicanAlien are definitely on my town list right now. I like MexicanAlien's read on Trfel, but he also had a similarly confident read on PepperMintTea, who is not a suspect of mine. I think my judgment is clouded by my perception of Trfel as scummy already, but his voting / reads / questions are really odd to me. I am not going to trust kush's reads until there is a justification for them. You the first half of your filter is all random questions. I don't see much desire from you to advance the game, either. [you meaning Trfel] "Hey, guys, this is what I say, but I'm going to give myself a wide open backdoor of just saying I'm not going to do it." My top townreads right now are Alur, darthfoley, and MexicanAlien. Kush and Eden as town leans. My top scumreads right now are JesusIncarnate, Shapelog, and Trfel. Ikidomari and Onegu as scum leans. I'm not sure on PepperMintTea. I'll be back after a filter dive. Even before our major cases came out (at least i think so) And answering questions and leaving after you appear to get town cred for it. Shows Paranoid behavior (They enter, "OMG THIS IS NOT GOOD ARGGGGG" posts things. 'Oh loook they think i am more town, cya" and peaces out) Does it not bother anyone else that what tumble has done is just a more better looking thing that Ikido has done? Summary: Tumble shares a lot of Behavor traits with Ikido. Especially paranoia. Jesus/S2S + Show Spoiler + Cocky Do i really need to explain? On January 23 2016 11:15 JesusIncarnate wrote: I am a mafia grand master. I have come from multiple other mafia sites. On January 27 2016 23:28 JesusIncarnate wrote: speak to me with respect mexican. I deserve it, i am above you. pretty much. Relaxed On January 27 2016 22:17 JesusIncarnate wrote: sick meme sick meme x2 (epic sig btw) anyway. darthfoley is kind of chill, def town for me right now. There posts are quite reactionary. Trifel also a bit towny in my books. shit post; town post. Onegu, scummy to me. Posting long essays mean nothing to me. lol people like eden are falling for the simple mafia strat for noobs "I will act stupid and hope people townread me" however i dont agree with their final post in their large manifesto. #368 Shape, scum or not, probably had someone scumreading them, but not anymore. I think the scum took not of the changing reads on shape and quickly either laid off or just changed their reads. okay so to sum this all up. I dont like onegu or shape. folley seems town. Eden is up in the air for me. trfel seems pretty town to me. other people i honestly dont care about. On January 28 2016 04:02 JesusIncarnate wrote: @Tumblewood i was planning on posting yesterday but I got busy. In fact i'll be a bit busy till friday. Everyone is hating me because they aint me. /yawn just wait until i clutch the game later, you peasants will be praising me after that. Shapelog is leaning more town now, but im not outright town-reading them. Other than that its the same. I do not feel confident in lynching Onegu however, the people on the vote are particularly shocking. I'll prob do filter posts when i have more time, as right now i can only read thread and type shit. However, just wait. I assure you all, i am an incredibly strong player. The fact he is relaxed enough to say "sick memes" shows he is not paranoid about anything. Even though he was a null read at best. This also shows that he is not worrying about people scum reading him or even lynching him. EGO His ego just would not allow him to be submissive. Period. In fact, i can see him even fighting the experienced player. Also he would prob. Bash Ikido too (which tinfoilly can be used to describe why Ikido gave up) Summary: Jesus, at least, has no way in hell to be a scum partner to Ikido. Have to update when S2S decides to play. Mexcian + Show Spoiler + Supportive & Unfearful On January 27 2016 07:07 _MexicanAlien wrote: Alright enough about meta reads we should come up with a strategy On January 27 2016 07:17 _MexicanAlien wrote: I have no freakin clue what to do. We need information. On January 27 2016 07:31 _MexicanAlien wrote: no blue talk it is useless (to townies) He does not know how to do the things to help town, but he sure knows what they are. He is supporting/throwing out his ideas without the fear of being called out for it. Also his latest posts (and the shit feast that happen) with him and eden also shows he is not fearful of anything Analytical On January 27 2016 07:34 _MexicanAlien wrote: Is anyone else here seeing a pattern? On January 27 2016 07:43 _MexicanAlien wrote: Why does shapelog call his own play dumb? Shouldn't he be trying to play well? "Improve D1"? On January 27 2016 15:39 _MexicanAlien wrote: Trfel is right in a way. My primary motivation is solving the game. To a player with my experience, Shapelog's comments and posts seem to very strongly suggest that he is scum. Therefor, in an attempt to solve the game (by convincing myself and others as to the identity of the Mafia), I became a little overeager and attached to Shapelog's trial. Also, when it was just Onegu, Darthfoley, Shapelog, and myself posting the game was quite simple. Simple to analyze, that is. When all these other players came on and started posting, the game became much much more complicated. Because of that, I am trying to come up with reads on different people through their opinions and posts. This is going to take me some time. Anyway, I have to go now. I will be back later in the day. And a bunch of other crap. Even goes on to say his Primary motivation is solving the game. Maybe that is just scum saying stuff to sound town, but he didn't have too. Also if he is scum then he will know who is scum and not have that Motivation. Him saying he had something for motivation, at a time that there is nothing asking him = Town in my books. Open-Minded Day 1 was me as top scum. He hold on to this tight however he later realized why other people are town reading me. Shows he can change his mind about who he thinks is scum and can get over tunneling. (personally i rather have non tunnels on lylo then tunnels who could screw over us and lose the game to scum) Summary: Almost a 180 from Ikido Conclusion: So the Newbie mafia is:Tumbledore, based off of associative behavior. HOWEVER, S2S needs to be re-vaulted once he comes in. So I could see S2S actually being mafia. Though i highly doubt it. Investing jesus/S2S interactions with Ikido would not be a bad idea. And that leaves us with the mastermind of the scum team Who will not be founded in this post. Look i am tired and busy right now and i want to make sure i get this in because i might be busy all the rest of the day. Tomorrow or when i find time i will try to find the last member of the scum team and use behavior and filter content to find them. [/spoiler] Beyond that, he seems to be trying to scumhunt. I think he gets a pass for today as well. Tumblewood - very short filter, now after re-reading it, I'm not caring for it much, these two posts stick out at me the most - + Show Spoiler [TW's wall post] + On January 29 2016 14:10 Tumblewood wrote: Protip: Don't sign up for a mafia game that happens during finals week. I'm finally back after voting this morning, here are my thoughts as I skim through the thread: Why are we seeing kush post reads with zero explanation and then saying, "Yeah, that's townie right there, looks good." Are they just weather vane posts? My gut says townie (especially since the other posts are solid), but I'm a little confused by these reads, since they're just a list of people. Agree on all fronts, I don't know why we got so big on Ikidomari and then got cold feet so quickly. I'm seeing scum in the "I'm sorry can you please get me another chance" attitude, but also a lot of plain newbie. Townread on MexicanAlien for sticking with the vote on me even as the Kuragari wagon picks up speed. Strong townread on darthfoley for calling out people on their reads that don't make sense. Why are Kura's scumreads all "slight" or "lean"? Kura, stop, you're backing yourself into a corner with "I'm a null." You're practically begging to be lynched at this point. "I'm actually starting to get cold feet..." Why? "Meh, maybe I'm not." Not sure if this is scummy or NAI. I'm thinking NAI, but that's still weirdly unreasoned. Aaaand a mislynch. Not sure what to look for yet in VCA (am I using that right?) except that I'm not suspicious of the early voters (Alur, darth, kush... not that I was in the first place). Trfel, what's with these reads without reasons? Seriously, where is Jesus this game. If he doesn't show up in the next eight hours, I don't think there's any way around lynching him. Someone can't just stay quiet, be unhelpful when they speak, and not be scummy for it. Unless we wait for a modkill? + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote: VCA is hard. How could you do yours so fast Darth. If we assume mafia helped push the wagon, it would've happened at a point where it wasn't obvious that the lynch would go through, so were talking the first 4 ish votes. Which would be me, Darth, PMT and Trfel. Trfel coming in as the fourth looks pretty suspicious, considering I was leaning towards him being scum. But then theres this, thing (this is how Trfel acts on the Kura vote) Followed by: There is no mafia motivation for saying the bolded part, but when you just "jk" it, it could appear like he's just trying to gain some sort of deniability, especially when combined with the "I think I'm getting cold feet". But PMT and Darth (who could potentially be pocketing me) aren't clear of suspicion either. I just don't have much to hinge that suspicion on currently. Also I'm not sure I understand Edens motivation for joining the wagon last minute. He didn't actually need to vote for it to happen. It seems like it could be a ploy to gain some towncred, because mafia don't need to touch the wagon anymore at that point. He also tried to discredit Kuragari's reads (who scumread him). I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch. I think I kind of like mexican for sticking with his lynch. He presented which players he would be able to lynch, and didn't back down on his reads to join the Kura bandwagon. This also coincides with the fact that he's a townread of mine. Some of this might be tinfoily, but that's because there aren't any conclusions that are staring me in the face. Strong townread for Alur on this. He's actively scumhunting, and his points are strong. + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 08:41 darthfoley wrote: Kuragari Wagon History Alur #573 - 1st vote Kura darthfoley #574 - 2nd vote Kura; reasoning explained PMT #761 - 3rd vote Kura -immediately unvote PMT #762 - vote Onegu (Onegu only had 1 other vote at this time, from Shapelog I believe) PMT #868 hops back on Kura train - still 3rd vote - no explanation Trfefl #869 - 4th Kura vote -Previous post claims that Kura lynch is stupid -Defending Ikido from wagon -Switches off Tumblewood -No reasoning given VC AT TIME OF PMT/Trfel Votes 4 Kuragari (Alur, darthfoley, PMT, Trfel) 3 JesusIncarnate (Noon, Tumblewood, Ikidomari) 1 Tumblewood (MexicanAlien) 1 Ikidomari (Eden) Not voted: Shapelog, Kuragari, Onegu, Jesus Shapelog #871 - vote Ikido (now 4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) Shapelog #872 - unvote Ikido (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Tumble, 1 Ikido) Shapelog #878 - vote Ikido, "going with gut" (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) Shapelog #894 - vote Kura (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) -Gut feeling = Ikido -Later blames going with gut on Kura vote Kuragari #935 - vote Tumblewood (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido) Eden #958 - vote Kura (6 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido) How many times did people vote? Shapelog: 4 (PMT, Onegu, Ikido, Kura) Eden: 4 (Onegu, Trfel, Ikido x2, Kura) darthfoley: 3 (Tumblewood, Jesus, Kura) Trfel: 3 (Onegu, Tumblewood, Kura) PMT: 2 (Onegu, Kura) Alur: 1 (Kuragari) This VCA is not a masterpiece, but I think it clearly throws suspicion on two people specifically: Trfel and Shapelog. Trfel #866: Trfel #869: Notice that he votes literally the post after PMT comes back to the Kuragari wagon, making it 4-3 Kura > Jesus, without giving any explanation why. Also don't like posts that start like this: Similarly, Shapelog has been on every wagon in existence: Onegu, Jesus, Ikido, and Kuragari. Gets his gut feeling mixed up (first says his gut is Ikido, later complains how his gut told him to vote Kura). There is something off about this post. I would've been okay with it perhaps early D1, but this whole "i'm so torn thing!" comes off as fake to me, especially because he only cites other people's reasons... and hasn't made one good case all game. To me, votes #4 and #5 are the votes that should be analyzed, because at 5-3 Kura > Jesus, no one was going to counter push Jesus. ESPECIALLY with Kuragari voting Tumblewood. Eden voting to make it 6-3 is NAI or maybe even slightly town, because that was the only wagon with momentum at that point. If he had hopped on and Kura had been mafia, it's a different story. In conclusion, i'm scum reading both Shapelog and Trfel I like this VCA. I agree on Shapelog and Trfel being scummy (not because of the wagoning, but it certainly puts them farther up my list), and this post voices it better than I can. Darth, Alur, and MexicanAlien are definitely on my town list right now. I like MexicanAlien's read on Trfel, but he also had a similarly confident read on PepperMintTea, who is not a suspect of mine. I think my judgment is clouded by my perception of Trfel as scummy already, but his voting / reads / questions are really odd to me. I am not going to trust kush's reads until there is a justification for them. You the first half of your filter is all random questions. I don't see much desire from you to advance the game, either. [you meaning Trfel] "Hey, guys, this is what I say, but I'm going to give myself a wide open backdoor of just saying I'm not going to do it." My top townreads right now are Alur, darthfoley, and MexicanAlien. Kush and Eden as town leans. My top scumreads right now are JesusIncarnate, Shapelog, and Trfel. Ikidomari and Onegu as scum leans. I'm not sure on PepperMintTea. I'll be back after a filter dive. He's got three top scum and two scum leans, and then filter dives PMT and finds an old post - On January 29 2016 14:14 Tumblewood wrote: This is from a while ago, so only half-relevant now, but I don't see the reasoning for backing out of Onegu and Ikidomari. Would like an answer from PMT. Not that I've been any better, but I can't say much about PMT's EOD behavior because there's not very much of it. Apologies for the eyesore that is my previous post. I'd give a mafia learn/would lynch him for now. I'll be back in a bit. | ||
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On February 01 2016 21:09 _MexicanAlien wrote: Hey guys I might not be around for the night end. I think the mafia is: Eden1892 Trfel Scum lean: scott31733 Tumblewood Town: darthfoley Shapelog Unknown: nooniansoong I am kind of curious why I get the scumlean from Jesus that has done much less than nooniansoong but you are still null/unknown on him? Is there a reason for that? Has he done townie things and scummy things, or has he just been a bland of nothing? Could you be more specific on him? | ||
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On February 01 2016 07:03 PepperMintTea wrote: Here's what happens He has no knowledge of the game so far He isn't going to go through 70 pages in a detailed manner so he will skim read and come up with something not particularly useful. Just some basic surface stuff. He will still be a massive question mark Jesus was scummy and decided not to play. Scott won't remove that for me so I am lynching him regardless Thanks for the hand, Trfel - and you would be surprised at what I can do - I'm trying to chill on the drinking since I'm tired of being yelled at about it so I don't need shit for sleep and got plenty of time for this game tonight -*snickers* Not even giving me a chance makes me wonder though - we'll see. | ||
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On February 02 2016 09:36 nooniansoong wrote: @scott why does that post from tumblewood questioning PMT mean anything... Seems like a valid question to me. It's having five scumleans and says he's going to filter dive and then only comes up with that, was my point - ie "Hey look I filter dived" and then be done with it. It wasn't the question per-se. Do you see what I mean now? | ||
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On February 02 2016 05:34 Eden1892 wrote: Kush. Why are you so sure Tumblewood is town? Please explain in detail. Kush answer this for us please. | ||
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On February 02 2016 09:46 nooniansoong wrote: So your issue was he didn't have anything else to say about the filter dive? or that he filter dived at all? He didn't have anything else to pull out of anyone's filters and has too many scumreads - and then only did one "filter" post before coming back to the thread. | ||
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On February 02 2016 10:32 nooniansoong wrote: because i'm sure you guys are scum :p I want a serious answer. | ||
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On February 02 2016 09:48 Shapelog wrote: Scott you do realized those posts came AFTER Ikido got lynched right? Also i be on for 10 mins because i am checking my important Email. Thank you-now I do looking at timestamps. | ||
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On February 02 2016 11:11 nooniansoong wrote: edwop @scott about tumble -
ps how do you do an ordered list? I've re-read his filter, what cases are you referring to? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Trfel's list post] + On January 31 2016 13:15 Trfel wrote: "How to Play Mafia" with Trfel! This will be a guide on "how to play mafia". Hence the title. I know, I'm creative. Step 1: Whenever you make an awesome post, give it a big title and at least one awesome song (from Youtube). This is mandatory to being a good mafia player. Step 2: Have awesome reads. You can look at my posts for examples. Step 3: Everyone who disagrees with you is wrong. If you don't believe this, just look back at Step 2. Step 4: Win the game. This is a gimme step, as if you did Steps 1-3, this step is automatic. Okay, seriously though, here's what I have. But more seriously, listen to those songs. They're more than worth it. I've played a lot of mafia, and there's a good chance that this is the last piece of analysis I ever write, so I have to make the songs really count. Player List PepperMintTea Tumblewood JesusIncarnate darthfoley Ikidomari nooniansoong _MexicanAlien Eden1892 Shapelog First, start off with the confirmed town. Darthfoley is town because he claimed vigilante. If he is mafia, he dies when the two town power roles claim or die. This is a losing play, so darthfoley is town. _MexicanAlien is town. His early posting was extremely town-indicative. Mafia doesn't come into the thread asking what to do. They'd ask their teammates in the scum qt. That aside, _MexicanAlien demonstrated a drive to get the game started and to progress towards solving the game that basically never comes from mafia. Yes, he's dropped off a bit recently, but he's town anyway. Look at how much his play has improved. He went from this to this. That drive to get better and contribute is town, no matter how hard his activity drops off. Shapelog is town because he's made so many posts. In addition to his activity, he's been constantly contributing. He's been discussing, questioning, sharing feedback on other people's reads, and making his own reads. He's provided tons of original thought. He has the longest filter in the game. He's been very open to ideas and willing to interact, and his progression doesn't show mafia agenda. Nooniansoong is town primarily for filter length. Nooniansoong generally doesn't post so much, and generally doesn't get very involved. His activity in this game is extremely higher than it is in his mafia games, and still higher than in most of his town games. Don't underestimate how strong filter length is as an argument for townreading people. Also, his roleblock claim could give him a lot of trouble later if it were false (if there is a veteran instead of a doctor, for example, it looks really awful for him). This leaves five people, with three mafia among them. PepperMintTea Tumblewood JesusIncarnate Ikidomari Eden1892 Here's where it gets interesting. There are more reasons for these reads, you can check filters. I'm not giving every reason, because there would be far too many and this post would be unreadable. Ikidomari is mafia because of his large amount of apologies early on in the game. His activity also fits mafia motivation, instead of displaying a desire to solve the game. There are also several inconsistencies in his play. One example of this is that he repeatedly says that he is a good lynch because he is a weak player.But, the third statement doesn't match. Town doesn't say "lynch me, you should lynch me, but here's some defense". Town will, in rare circumstances, ask to be lynched and/or vote for themselves, but there is always some sort of possible town motivation behind it (generally proving that their scumreads are genuine). Here, there is none of this. He's asking to be lynched and asking to survive at the same time, which makes him mafia. One other thing to look at is how Ikidomari has been playing after the Day 1 lynch. He posted analysis, fine. He didn't have time before the lynch, so he didn't push anything or stay up to date, fine. He comes back and posts analysis, fine. Here's what else happens. Eden, arguably the person most vocally scumreading him, townreads him. Then he leaves, and comes back later with this weird post, which caused Shapelog and I to say that it was a bit towny. Then, once we said that, he just vanished. No push, no reads, no updates, just gone. And he hasn't returned since. This is extremely mafia motivated, because he's playing to survive, instead of push mafia. Ikidomari is my most confident scumread, I'm nearly positive that he is mafia. Tumblewood is mafia because his reads have matched the thread sentiment suspicions. Every time. He doesn't show any drive to find mafia or solve the game, just goes with the flow. Then there's his weird read on Shapelog, which I described here. Okay, it's possible that this comes from town, but the emphases of his scumread on Shapelog don't match. Further, the second quote from Tumblewood I quoted here, look at it. He's saying that people are townreading Shapelog too easily, because Shapelog's early play was so scummy. If he really is concerned about this, it would make sense for him to bring up all of these new reasons that he has to scumread Shapelog. But he doesn't. It feels like he doesn't actually care about pushing Shapelog, or about making people scumread Shapelog. So, he was still really suspicious of Shapelog, and has been talking about Shapelog all this time, but votes for JesusIncarnate because "unless I see something that convinces me he's town". Presumably just JesusIncarnate's low activity. This feels like he wanted to fit in, and this isn't how town approaches a lynch. There are some points where Tumblewood seems to be thinking about the game and trying to figure out alignments, but these are few and far between, especially compared to the large amount of evidence that he is mafia. JesusIncarnate is town because there's no reason to call him mafia, because everyone is pushing onto him so easily, and because both Ikidomari and Tumblewood voted for him. His confident tone doesn't make sense from mafia, especially from mafia with such drastically low activity. I can see mafia being confident and dominating the game, but low activity puts JesusIncarnate in a position of weakness (with his activity, extreme weakness). His attitude simply doesn't make sense from mafia at all. There is a counter-argument to this, though.He's scumreading Shapelog for putting a target on his back. Maybe JesusIncarnate is used to mafia making themselves targets instead of hanging back and blending in. But I don't understand this, and I feel that a much better explanation is that JesusIncarnate is town. In addition, while JesusIncarnate hasn't made very many reads, the reads he has made are original. He doesn't sheep anyone, he doesn't follow the thread sentiment. This is more likely to come from town.Here's the biggest example. At a time when most people were scumreading me, JesusIncarnate calls me town because my post was bad, which makes me town. Mafia doesn't say this. JesusIncarnate is likely town. PepperMintTea is town because their posts demonstrate critical thinking and have many original ideas. The initial townread of Shapelog for haphazard posting is one example of this, since Shapelog was widely scumread at this point. PepperMintTea's initial question/push on Tumblewood is another example of this, because this wasn't something that had been brought up before. PepperMintTea's sudden switch to scumreads seems strange, but there's a definite focus on preparing for the lynch. Finally, this post detailing PepperMintTea's approach to the Day 1 lynch seems very towny. The thought process is very sensible and shows insight and critical thinking. PepperMintTea's activity has dropped off recently, but being set on lynching JesusIncarnate is a sensible reason for this. I feel that PepperMintTea is probably town. Eden1892 is mafia because I needed to get three scum reads. But seriously, the lack of focus and leadership in his play doesn't make sense from town. Instead of guiding people, he's very willing to let people do whatever and lynch whoever. This isn't a town approach, and especially not from Eden. Eden's approach to the Day 1 lynch is mafia indicative. He started out by being fine with seemingly whatever lynch (between Trfel and JesusIncarnate, it seemed). He said that he would sheep onto JesusIncarnate, and that darthfoley's case and nooniansoong's push were good. You can see this here. Then he makes his case on Ikidomari (in the same post), and goes so far as to call the other wagons lynch bait (presumably JesusIncarnate, who he just said he was happy with lynching). You can see this here. Eden ends up saying that he doesn't want to lynch JesusIncarante because there are too many people willing to lynch him for poor reasons, despite him saying how good the wagon was earlier. Eden then takes his vote off of Ikidomari, and then votes for him again. Then Eden comes back a bit before End of Day and says he could lynch Kuragari42 for his reads (after he's the leading wagon), and says that he prefers the Ikidomari lynch and that Kuragari42 could flip town, but he's fine with it anyway (source). No push, just saying that he has a better lynch without doing anything about it. This is very mafia-motivated. Then, he says that Kuragari42 is claiming mafia for a read inconsistency with regards to JesusIncarnate, in which JesusIncarante is a mafia power role. So, why doesn't he lynch JesusIncarnate, since he's a power role and Kuragari42 is just a goon? This also doesn't make sense. This is not how town approaches the game. He's letting others take the blame for the mislynch while covering his bases in case Ikidomari is lynched, and taking the opportunity to lynch town instead while he can. He's been very opportunistic with his scumreads, as well, shown by making JesusIncarnate one of his strongest scumreads despite so strongly defending him on Day 1. Eden is mafia. Conclusion The mafia team is Ikidomari, Tumblewood, and Eden1892. Now we know he's wrong on Eden, and I think he was pretty tunnelled on him - but he created a case on Iki, has vibes on Iki - starts a vote on Iki - Iki only gets four votes and is lynched as mafia - and noon calls it a bus and calls him mafia with myself. I'm leaning town on Trfel. | ||
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On February 02 2016 21:02 nooniansoong wrote: Does anyone think Scott's contribution made him look townie? Does anyone think we shouldn't lynch him? On February 02 2016 22:01 nooniansoong wrote: My opinion should be abundantly clear. As for my case, I've been making it. On Scott, I just made it. His reads are bs. There's nothing more that needs to be said. Are you seeing if my mislynch will get traction before you attempt to so do? This reeks of agenda all over it. On February 02 2016 23:34 darthfoley wrote: Using read #1, isn't the Eden NK the perfect one from PMT's perspective? If you believe that he was too close to the truth, his scum association read-- which, by the way, I really like too-- is Tumblewood + Kush. However, he lumped PMT into this category, but ended up kind of nulling/slightly clearing her (have to re-look at that). So, Eden dies, and if you believe reason #1, everyone latches onto Kush and Tumblewood. Everyone focuses in on Tumblewood and Kush because of the association read, and most forget about PMT being in that category. It would be great for her, because let's say we mislynch Kush or Tumblewood who flip town. People will probably then decide that reason #2 is the real reason Eden was NK'd. Town turns its attention to people who may have looked less suspicious from the Eden NK, and PMT coasts even farther into the game without having contributed any reads over the past two days. This is simply a hypothesis, but one I intend to pursue, on the off chance that I find anything. I really like this possibility, it did not come to mind yet - *puts in notes* I'll re-read PMT next. On February 03 2016 01:22 Shapelog wrote: I still love how scott though me not voting for Ikido was sus. because of my disticing post when it clearly says on the 1st sentence that "there was a man name ikido who we successfully lynched d2." Scott 2 scummy goes on to say that he is not going to drink during this game. + Show Spoiler + Scott want to play a drinking game? I tried to get a basis of the game - I apologize for that - I've re-read it and see the positioning of it after the lynch now thru your massive filter I don't think you are mafia. | ||
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On February 03 2016 04:23 nooniansoong wrote: TRFEL IS SCUM 1 All his cases are based on bullshit Remember pg 16 in his tumble case LOL... Townread on jesus for saying "shitpost;townpost" and being cocky. etc + Show Spoiler [rest of Noon's case] + 2 No thought went into his kuragari vote On January 29 2016 03:15 Trfel wrote: I guess I was misinterpreting the situation. ##unvote ##vote Kuragari42 The timeline is he thought kura was town, he thought kura blueclaimed, he realized kura didn't blueclaim, then he voted. Then he gives this reason only after the fact. I thought that Kuragari42 had slipped blue and/or was claiming blue, in which case it's always incorrect to lynch him. When I looked at his filter more carefully, this wasn't the case, so I switched my vote to him because his reads didn't seem very interesting. It didn't feel like Kuragari42 was trying to help further town and help catch scum, but instead just state his reads for the record. In retrospect, this isn't very alignment indicative. So we get a generic, after the fact justification. 3 Ikido read is inconsistent These were his reads n1: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 11:19 Trfel wrote: Okay, I finished my analysis. I think that the mafia team is Tumblewood, Onegu, and Eden1892. I will be attempting to use a new posting style from now on. Tumblewood is mafia because:
AND he was hard defending ikido: + Show Spoiler + On January 28 2016 19:38 Trfel wrote: I'm not townreading him very strongly, but it's a slight read still. Ikidomari has been very open about feeling behind and not skilled enough. To me, this feels towny. In general, when mafia isn't skilled enough, they don't try and just give up. Ikidomari's play hasn't shown this at all. Instead, he feels relaxed and natural. His posts have felt free-flowing, and I don't think that the inconsistencies disrupt the flow of his reads from a town perspective. I realize that this is very subjective. I also feel that he's raised a few decent points that aren't so obvious. This is also subjective, though. In general, I don't like to lynch people because I don't have a good reason to townread them; if I can't show that they are scum, I don't want to lynch them. And I personally don't feel like I can show that Ikidomari is scum right now. On January 28 2016 19:42 Trfel wrote: If you really want me to respond to Eden1892's post, I don't think that reads like "I think that this person is town, but they could be scum because of this" are mafia indicative. This often comes from townies who can't make up their mind, especially in newbie games. Ikidomari also does arrive at conclusions. His reads are more like "I think that this person is this alignment because of this, but I could be wrong because of this, but I think he's more likely this alignment", which feels like a reasonable approach for him to have. To me, it feels more like he's thinking about the game and is just unsure instead of trying to avoid pinning himself to his reads. On January 30 2016 10:36 Trfel wrote: Does anyone else think that Ikidomari's post is towny? I just have a hard time seeing mafia being that baffled, or that uninformed. Or, presuming that nooniansoong is town, that skeptical (since they did actually roleblock nooniansoong). And that doesn't feel like the reaction of mafia who just caught the doctor who outed for no gain. But suddenly, when the lynch is between himself, jesus, and ikido, Ikido becomes his most confident read: + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2016 13:15 Trfel wrote: Ikidomari is mafia because of his large amount of apologies early on in the game. His activity also fits mafia motivation, instead of displaying a desire to solve the game. There are also several inconsistencies in his play. One example of this is that he repeatedly says that he is a good lynch because he is a weak player.But, the third statement doesn't match. Town doesn't say "lynch me, you should lynch me, but here's some defense". Town will, in rare circumstances, ask to be lynched and/or vote for themselves, but there is always some sort of possible town motivation behind it (generally proving that their scumreads are genuine). Here, there is none of this. He's asking to be lynched and asking to survive at the same time, which makes him mafia. One other thing to look at is how Ikidomari has been playing after the Day 1 lynch. He posted analysis, fine. He didn't have time before the lynch, so he didn't push anything or stay up to date, fine. He comes back and posts analysis, fine. Here's what else happens. Eden, arguably the person most vocally scumreading him, townreads him. Then he leaves, and comes back later with this weird post, which caused Shapelog and I to say that it was a bit towny. Then, once we said that, he just vanished. No push, no reads, no updates, just gone. And he hasn't returned since. This is extremely mafia motivated, because he's playing to survive, instead of push mafia. Ikidomari is my most confident scumread, I'm nearly positive that he is mafia. I've re-read page 16 and don't see any case, can you link me to what you are referring to? I saw this on Page 31 by Trfel - On January 28 2016 09:31 Trfel wrote: Tumblewood Tumblewood's first post here shows that he is scumreading Shapelog, and he says that this is because Shapelog made two posts where he said that he isn't scum. Tumblewood's argument is that because a townie wouldn't do this, then Shapelog is mafia. He also said that he had a scum lean of darthfoley because of two posts where darthfoley says that he is town, and adds that darthfoley has weird wording in a sentence (the explanation of the darthfoley read is here, where he says that this is the explanation for the scum lean he mentioned previously). Why is Shapelog a stronger scumread than darthfoley? He didn't mention anything else about their play other than these comments, which is weird. Also note that Shapelog was the top suspect at this time. Tumbleweed returned later and posted this post with new reads. He says that he's suspicious of Onegu, Shapelog, and Trfel. He also ends up with a null read on darthfoley, saying that he hasn't done anything to give him a read. This is really strange, because he described a scum lean on darthfoley previously, for the only reasoning that he's shared about Shapelog, who is still his scum read. There are lots of things I don't like about this post, I won't go into all of them, but it really gives the impression of trying to fit in. He later says that darthfoley's play has been solid lately, which doesn't match with his earlier statement that darthfoley hadn't done much to be read on. In addition to these read issues, Tumbleweed feels like he's responding to questions and thread sentiment, instead of actually wanting to solve the game. Tumblewood explained his read on Shapelog at my request, you can see this explanation here. Here, he describes why he's continuing to scumread Shapelog. However, you can see that all of the posts he quoted are between his first and second longer posts. Note that in the first post, he discounted Shapelog's "strange" play as non alignment indicative, and in the second, he said that Shapelog was scummy because of his extremely scummy play early on (pre page 16). However, the posts that Tumblewood mentions were all after page 16. This explanation isn't possible. Logically, Tumblewood cannot be scum. It's possible that he's town and messed up somehow, but given his filter as a whole, I think that he is scum. Because I am not seeing it. | ||
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scott31337
United States2522 Posts
On February 03 2016 05:56 nooniansoong wrote: who you want to vote and why? the case so far is: jesus implied eden was town then he said he was up in the air. you scumread tumble for a reason that made no sense. You, because it requires an act of congress to get any information out of you, which is a scummy trait - and a few other things - you have a big filter, but unlike a few of the others, there's not a whole lot of substance. #2 would be Tumblewood - How you hard defend him so much - I kind of liked Trfel's case on him as well - and his hard townread on you with his notes here- + Show Spoiler [Tumblewood's magic townread on K…] + On February 02 2016 14:56 Tumblewood wrote: nooniansoong + Show Spoiler + Kush's posts have been very concise and to the point. There's very little nuance, which is, as kush says, a town tell. He doesn't care how he looks, and makes clear and solid points. + Show Spoiler + On January 28 2016 03:17 nooniansoong wrote: Yes, but he's doing it in a conspicuous but delibrate way. Almost like he is using this point the game to gather as much info as possible, and before EoD he will synthesize all that information into reads. If Trfel were scum, he would think to himself "I shouldn't be asking so many questions because that looks scummy." + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 01:52 nooniansoong wrote: scumlist for brags 3. JesusIncarnate 4. Alur 10. Onegu 13. Shapelog No intelligent mafia makes a scumlist and then just doesn't explain it, especially when not on everyone's townlists. He does not promote a mafia agenda with his posting. + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2016 04:25 nooniansoong wrote: KURA, PLEASE CLAIM YOUR ROLE. YOU ARE GOING TO GET LYNCHED. Kura was town. If kush were mafia, he would have known that and wanted Kura dead. Kush is making an effort to keep Kura from being mislynched without doing anything for town cred. Mafia would just leave Kura to die. + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2016 08:33 nooniansoong wrote: jesus will probably get replaced. If Jesus is town, mafia would try to get Jesus mislynched to waste a day. If Jesus is mafia, mafia would try to keep the discussion away from him. He doesn't talk much except in response to something else. [Not sure if this is a town tell or a scum tell] I'm tired of quoting things so no quotes here. I really think you two are the last mafia, with a little tinfoil on Trfel and PepperMintTea. My order right now would be DarthFoley _MexicanAlien Shapelog Trfel PepperMintTea Nooniansong Tumblewood Other peeps - do you think Trfel and PMT bussed yesterday? Do I need to re-read the whole day, or what do you think? From what I have so far, I'm extremely doubtful that Trfel did. | ||
scott31337
United States2522 Posts
On January 31 2016 11:06 LoneMeow wrote: Vote count: Trfel (3): nooniansoong, _MexicanAlien, darthfoley JesusIncarnate (2): Eden1892 (1): Shapelog Tumblewood (1): Trfel Not voting (3): Tumblewood, JesusIncarnate, Ikidomari Currently, Trfel is set to be lynched. Deadline is Sunday, Jan 31 8:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory! If there are errors, please let us know. So I've reviewed most of Day 2, since I want to see what noon's talking about with the bus. At this vote - Trfel's up with three votes. Ikid never comes back, so we'll assume he's afk - Did Trfel know this or...? If he is mafia, could him and his partner just vote for me and go for the mislynch? We know Tumblewood does go for the shit vote later. Noon are you saying he went for the bus to save himself? Also - what happened to this? On February 01 2016 02:36 nooniansoong wrote: As long as one of trfel, jesus, or ikid gets lynched, I don't care all that much. | ||
scott31337
United States2522 Posts
##Vote: Tumblewood I'll get to your questions after I get my morning rounds done. | ||
scott31337
United States2522 Posts
On February 03 2016 09:48 nooniansoong wrote: What do you like about trfel's case on tumble?? I don't see anything to like. + Show Spoiler [Trfel's post] + Tumblewood is mafia because his reads have matched the thread sentiment suspicions. Every time. He doesn't show any drive to find mafia or solve the game, just goes with the flow. Then there's his weird read on Shapelog, which I described here. Okay, it's possible that this comes from town, but the emphases of his scumread on Shapelog don't match. Further, the second quote from Tumblewood I quoted here, look at it. He's saying that people are townreading Shapelog too easily, because Shapelog's early play was so scummy. If he really is concerned about this, it would make sense for him to bring up all of these new reasons that he has to scumread Shapelog. But he doesn't. It feels like he doesn't actually care about pushing Shapelog, or about making people scumread Shapelog. So, he was still really suspicious of Shapelog, and has been talking about Shapelog all this time, but votes for JesusIncarnate because "unless I see something that convinces me he's town". Presumably just JesusIncarnate's low activity. This feels like he wanted to fit in, and this isn't how town approaches a lynch. There are some points where Tumblewood seems to be thinking about the game and trying to figure out alignments, but these are few and far between, especially compared to the large amount of evidence that he is mafia. On February 03 2016 15:03 Trfel wrote: My bad, sorry.Good night. TW still has a weird read on Shapelog, he comes in with the Ninja vote and does not even try to sway the town on why he wants to vote Shapelog. He just drops the vote again and leaves. What would you think? If TW flips town (which I'm doubtful on, but possible) , I will start fresh on you-Kush and Trfel, fair enough? I still need to re-read PMT, I'll do that now. | ||
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