|
I was gunna read filters tonight but some stuff has come up and idk if I'll get time.
HtS the thing thats odd about you to me is that today you seem to be pushing me and not considering anyone else. You kinda brushed off my point about your meta read on me saying you looked at Haunted mansion, but tbh most of your points really come down to the same thing you were admonishing Fidei for, it's mostly just a fear read "He does a good job at looking townie as scum" and tbh I'm not sure any of your points are exclusive to my scum games.
But putting that aside (and tbh it's kinda omgus anyways) I see stuff that still makes me think you can be town here, so I'd like to understand why you don't seem to be considering anyone else today.
From my pov we have confirmed town Tumble, Koshi is is almost certainly town (or deserves the win if mafia), Shape who is probably town from DYH's D1 push and my shitty reasoning from earlier. Which leaves HtS and Gum.
Gum did a lot of martyring D2 and then came back to start playing near EoD and picked it up enough to get everyone off him. D3 he tunneled GB hard, had that fight with him that looked pretty likely to be TvT and to some extent continued his martyering (he made several mentions of "you guys should lynch me or GB"). Today, nothing.
HtS has honestly seemed town to me all game, putting in tons of effort and I've felt like a lot of her reads were being good and objective, not just pushing for a mislynch (that feeling has changed today though). I don't recall any solid pushes from her though, was pretty solidly on LS D1 but was all over the place EoD and her shift onto FF was shady given she had been semi-defending him earlier. I don't really recall off the top of my head where her head was at D3 but tbh I was kinda tunneled on Fidei so wasn't paying a ton of attn. Now today is fairly hard pushing me.
HtS does make a good point that SL did push her a fair bit D1 when there was literally no reason for him to bus her.
So I'm leaning towards Gum being the last mafia right now. I'm interested in checking his reactions to the DYH wagon D2, and I kinda want to reread the stuff between him and GB as that fight is kinda the main reason why I and I think a lot of people are TRing him right now. (this is more a mental note for me when I go to read his filter)
|
Day 4: TicTock (1) - Half the Sky Shapelog (1) - Koshi Half the Sky (0) - Koshi
Not Voted (4) - Shapelog, gumshoe, Tictock, Tumblewood
At the current vote, Tictock is slated to be lynched. until deadline.
|
On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40
My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments.
101
The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point.
The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor.
110
Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced.
Moving on to LS, which is easily explained.
Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so.
Honestly HtS how can you make posts like this without fucking quoting the goddam quote.
I have half a mind to vote you just for making me go through this...
|
This is actually the legit first time I've opened HtS's filter. Everyone else's name was dark blue.
To do HtS's filter justice... I'm going to do this hardcore.
Opener #120 Kinda weird, lots of townleans, push on Tumble and LS, weird stuff about SL when talking to Koshi about FF. I think she mentions everyone in the game. + Show Spoiler +On April 20 2016 21:44 Half the Sky wrote: 1/40
Reading through so far, here are my thoughts.
Damdred (88/89)/gumshoe (posts 93/95)- townleans, I agree with most of the points said on them thus far. DYH I'm reading post 85/87 I can see those coming from both alignments so I'm going to wait for further comments. Tictock is a townlean for the breakdown in post 112.
Seeing a few arguments about people being underwhelming, it's a poor argument to have been made <10h into the game, but that's just me. SL, DYH, GB based on their openers are all people that I'd need to see more content from. SL in particular has both active and lazy town and scum metas.
My scum leans so far are Tumbleweed and LightningStrike based on the focus on their posts. I'll go into detail in the next post.
Although I get a towny sentiment from Koshi, I also don't understand Koshi's scumreasoning for Fecalfeast, - I skimmed the latter's filter and I see a lot of the lazy Fecalfeast meta, I didn't understand Koshi's words about "town should be grilling sicklucker" when depending on the player it's not necessarily always the case, it was obvious to me that sicklucker was facetious. Additionally, Fecalfeast "not making a difference" is not necessarily exclusively mafia indicative for him. For the games I've played with him, he has both lazy town and mafia metas, but even in his lazy town meta, he will try and do something at some point. We're a bit early in the cycle to pass judgement IMO.
To sum it up, Fecalfeast could be mafia but not necessarily for that.
#121 Follow up on LS and Tuble push. Really, why put the post # underlined, and so emphasized, but not fucking quote the dam post. + Show Spoiler +On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40
My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments.
101
The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point.
The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor.
110
Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced.
Moving on to LS, which is easily explained.
Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so. Actually ...noting that her pushes on Tumble and LS revolve around them townreading people for the bad reasons?
First thing that seemed noteworthy from #178... + Show Spoiler +Updated reads from DYH (yes I know he's generally low volume, but still) and Shapelog would be great. Will probably read Shapelog again given what Tumble said about the quality of his answers, but seeing as how a lot of my townreads are playing and the number of people that have posted less than me, I get the feeling someone has me fooled, one mafia is pushing my lynch and the third is really playing under the radar.
It's also amusing to note that a lot of HtS's push on LS was his early scumlean on me and never really committing afterwords. #187 + Show Spoiler +On April 21 2016 07:05 Half the Sky wrote:10/40 LS, regarding your followthrough with Tictock (post 137, first quote) because your filter isn't very clear, where do you (LS) stand on him now and why? You have through posts 177 and 182 responding to him, but you haven't actually said anything regarding his alignment since you scumread him for his opening salve. Show nested quote +On April 21 2016 06:34 LightningStrike wrote:On April 21 2016 05:55 Tictock wrote:On April 21 2016 05:14 Fidei86 wrote: 2/40
@TT do you 'kind of' agree with it or do you actually agree wh it. My opening wasn't long and FF's point wasn't complicated. Not sure I see much middle ground. It seems kind of a lame agreement-but-not-really from you. But I shall read the rest of your posts / the game before deciding for sure.
I got to p7 before my swim. But all I really noticed was LS was making points. So I should re-read from the start. Which I will. I kind-of agree with it in the sense that his point tracks, but a weak open doesn't necessarily make you mafia.
I'm not sure I'll have much time tonight for this so I think I'm going to place my vote on Tumble for now. His opening consisted of quoting and responding to 3 posts, but really had no content to it. Just feels like a "look at me talking about stuff" kinda post. + Show Spoiler +On April 20 2016 10:02 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2016 07:30 Koshi wrote: My vote will be on the person who I think contributed the least and will be the hardest to read town in future days. I've been considering trying a meta like this too. Think I'm going to join you this game. Show nested quote +On April 20 2016 07:39 Shapelog wrote:On April 20 2016 07:34 Damdred wrote: Hello I'd advise everyone but koshi to put a number in your post so that you can keep a better check on them. Koshis just awesome enough he doesn't need it.
I think we should policy lynch hts for two reasons.
We have a pretty good chance to hit scum and she is probably drinking whiskey which is her scum drink of choice.
Fight against the powers and game mod tyranny of hts by striking her down here!
[1] Lol Damdred. I personally hate Plynchs in general tbh. Prob. because I like content and not luck in lynching someone lol (even though I rarely make it easy for people to read me as town via content ) Also yes, was bout to do this. [3][3/5 for off the bat] Why do you take this opportunity to talk about plynches Show nested quote +On April 20 2016 09:43 LightningStrike wrote:On April 20 2016 09:32 Tictock wrote: Oh cool, this started already.
I'll check in later when there is stuff to read. kinda dislike this post because he blatantly doesn't want to stir up discussion. I give this post a 1 out of 1. There wasn't much to make out of this, but you made all you could. Well done. Bam look at this efficiency I do in one post what you do in three Also was that gumshoe vote not a joke His push on shape about plynches doesn't really make much sense. I just don't get why Shape saying he dislikes policy lynches is so important to Tumble, feels more like he is making something out of nothing. + Show Spoiler +On April 20 2016 14:38 Tumblewood wrote: Shape, why did you use Damdred's obvious joke as an opportunity to discuss plynches? I know that he mentioned them, but your post was a non sequitur still. Please explain. On April 20 2016 23:57 Tumblewood wrote: Shape is dangerously close to a "disappointing answers" scumread. HtS is throwing me off because he's (she's?) scumreading me and LS and those are the only two people I'm thinking are town so far. The arguments feel a bit stretched but so is everything at this stage. Null for now but will become a scumread if this continues. He says: me [Tumblewood] and LS and those are the only two people I'm thinking are town so far. With pretty weak reasoning for the LS townread... His scumreads are weak. + Show Spoiler +Shape- for not giving better answers to his Plynch questions? HtS - kus she is scumreading his townreads (himself and LS) Myself- Kus my first post said I would come back to the game later.
It also doesn't seem like he's reading that game too closely. His read on me is based on my first post but doesn't seem to have noticed I've made more posts than that. Also this series of posts doesn't seem like he's reading very closly/not paying attn. On April 20 2016 11:02 Tumblewood wrote:On April 20 2016 10:44 GlowingBear wrote: Are you being serious right now SL?
3 speaking on behalf of SL no On April 21 2016 02:37 Tumblewood wrote:On April 21 2016 01:48 Koshi wrote: Pure on guts I am inclined to believe LS over HTS. Rereading HTS her posts I somehow can see it coming from scum because it is pretty emotionless and at points over explained.
I also have a feeling that she can't or won't commit on a read on FF and hides after a lot of words and "lazy meta can go both ways"
I am also thinking I like Tumble his last post. That actually sounds like townie reasoning.
So I actually am more inclined to lynch HtS over FF atm but I am going to stick on FF.
I could comment on more things I think but I don't want to be the driving force behind any conversation.Like this post but mostly because it affirms what I was already saying. Why don't you want to be the driving force behind conversation? On April 21 2016 02:11 GlowingBear wrote: 4 Ok since SL never answered me, I must say I don't like his posts
He has an opening calling Damdred "null" (the only thing I can understabd from bolding a name) because damdred was wasting posts. This is bad because:
1) It is impossible to have contentful posts in the beginning of the game 2) Calling someone null is saying something someone did is not alignment indicative, which means (I) he is wasting a post because he is saying nothing contributive, and (ii) he is trying to look contributive while saying nothing at all.
Wanting to lynch LS in the beginning of the game for wasting posts just reinforces this perspective Also like this post, GB gets to be a townlean for now. Solid, original insight. On April 21 2016 02:40 Tumblewood wrote: Actually no The post I think you're talking about-- are you sure that's serious? Could easily be a joke or to get a reaction. ##Vote: Tumblewood This doesn't make Tumblewood scum it as if you forgot about Storm and you never read Newbie Student XX >.< I see him as a newer version of me: Hard to read for some people but given time he easier to read.
I'm realizing I am a moron for quoting and will now be linking instead.
#208 is the first true WoT and List post. Mentions the fact that I left SL off that list post back then a couple of times like it's a big deal. Noting that SL was in her list of "probably one mafia here" while FF was town in this post. Still pushing LS hard.
#230 has some questions for SL and there is a common theme in HtS's filter about waiting for DYH (it's in posts before this too but I'm noting it now) Examples from #232 and #244 + Show Spoiler +My only concern with DYH is he's not commented on some of the others - at the very least I figured he could have weighed in on LS. There are a couple of other reasons why I think DYH could have posted the way he did but I want to see a bit more out of him. That said I'm not totally off DYH, like I said before commenting on others he hasn't mentioned yet would help me be able to better read him and weigh him against the other low volume posters for this game.
#299 is when HtS says she preffers her "active lynch" of LS, but will consolidate on her "Inactive lynch" of SL. Which is followed up a little in #337 and she also tells Koshi she was ignoring FF for town reading him earlier.
#337 is actually an important post imo, She quoted a post for the first time, thank the lord. She actually starts doing it from here on out it seems.
It looks like #354 is where HtS starts scum reading FF.... One post that looks like scum meta. This folks is why I hate meta, this is an especially bad usage of it as well.
It's interesting to note how upset HtS gets with Damdred in #418 for her switch to FF, and tells him to read her filter to find how it happens. Doing that now I actually agree wholeheartedly with Damdred, as HtS goes from talking about giving FF a pass for town meta to OMGUS to "There's scum meta" and flips her vote in a second.
Yea looking back over all this the push on LS felt flimsy, it was mostly about him not having a distinct read on me yet she talks about giving a pass to less active players and herself never forms a distictive read on DYH all day. The swap to SL could well have been a bus by the way it happened and even noting the way that HtS called out my omission of SL early "very interesting" especially with how flimsy her flop onto the FF wagon was.
Starting to feel a fool here... (I'm gunna keep going with this filter, but this is only Pg 3 of 7)
|
On April 30 2016 00:29 Tictock wrote, among other things:I've also got a pretty terrible, wifom, reason why you probably aren't the last mafia Shape... + Show Spoiler +Last game as the last mafia alive Shape took 2 blue's with him into 3 man lylo, and here we know that Fidei was RB'd D1 so the last mafia has to be the RB. If Shape was scum here I'm like 90% sure he would have RB'd Fidei and left him alive for the WIFOM, especially since Fidei was fairly set in his scumread on HtS. You are correct: This is a terrible reason. First rule of nightkills is that they never make anyone town or scum because they're drenched in wine.
On April 30 2016 00:47 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2016 23:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40
Shape, with those last two mafia games from Tictock, aside from what you presented, I'm seeing a few more parallels.
In the Devil Inside, both Trfel and Kushmasta both called Tictock out for misrepresenting their posts/reads. In this game, we have that read on Tumblewood.
In Devil, Kushmasta called Tictock out (post 1207 that game) for ignoring reads that he updated. You have the exact same situation here with when he called Koshi's reads bullshit - it was after Koshi re-evaluated his read on LS and he didn't at all take into consideration why Koshi changed his read on LS. It's not like town doesn't read into posts and find things that aren't there. Also it was still a good point I had against Tumble, it's super weird to say "I think LS and me are probably town" I said Koshi's read on LS was BS, as in it was a terrible reason to townread LS. Given that it's Koshi we are talking about, him having weird/bad reads is actually more town indicative imo, which is what I concluded based on that. You brought this point up earlier and concluded the opposite irrc. + Show Spoiler [Just something I noticed] +While this isn't really conclusive I also can't help but notice you've been referencing posts almost exclusively by post number rather than providing the post itself. I point it out kus I used the same tactic in my last scum game (as shitty as it was) because I realized it makes it harder for people to fact check the points you make, it puts the onus on us to plug that number in and find the post you are referring to ourselves. Though I've seen you do this in Obs and such before too (course you can't really quote in those) so idk if that really means much.
Unless you are gumshoe, reading into posts and finding things that aren't there is a trait of someone trying to make a case out of nothing. This is a tactic of a scum, a bad town, or anyone who needs to case someone based on PoE but has no good reasons. And your point on me sucked, what anyone says with regards to their own alignment is 99% NAI. no comment on that second paragraph because I've hardly been reading the thread Re: "Just something I noticed" - Does this make HtS town or scum? It looks like you're trying to cast shade over HtS without actually going so far as to-- god forbid-- say that referencing post numbers only is scummy.
|
Ah! This was what I was thinking of before from #424
Blargh never mind. I thought I saw an issue with Tictock, but after re-reading he concludes town on Koshi. He'd called his LS read bull prior to Koshi changing his stance on LS but his final read was town based on other criteria. Meh. Also gives DYH a townread for his push on shape having a towny mindset while talking about a lot of vote stuff. Kinda a weird place to throw a TR out based on someone's push while talking about who voted who, maybe that's just me.
Seems like HtS comes to the conclusion that Tumble and SL are a team during the night phase. Mostly from associations in #446 which don't look terrible, but are actually not that dissimilar from what HtS did herself (had a "scum lean" on SL and townread on FF but called out something from FF and swapped to him). Interesting how she pushes TW over SL in #457 re:Fide
The reaction to SL's flip seem pretty genuine and the pushing on TW seems reasonably excited given how she was associating them. Only thing I notice as D2 starts off is the in #482 HtS talks about Tumble/Koshi/SL being her scumteam (both Koshi and Tumble for associations with SL) but when Tumble claims it's GB that HtS starts suspecting.
#516 is a good reason as to why I need to read Gum's filter. This is actually a solid point if it pans out kus "SL doesn't care, but when your scum you tend to care, so he probably isn't mafia. Lets vote FF!" sounds pretty bad (but it does depend on what Gum's read on FF had been progressing as well). HtS also talks to DYH a little in this post, most notably saying "Admittedly a point against you is that there was zero interaction between you and sicklucker, either way." It might be hippo-critical of me (it prob is) but I can't recall any stance HtS has taken on DYH throughout this dive.
Nothing much else stuck out to me throughout Pg4 of HtS's filter, so we are zooming into EoD2 where we see in #677 HtS is kinda defending DYH (though it looks more like a null read that she has on him) then in #689 is suddenly jumping to meta DYH "so I can deal with my phobia." Given that she loves to throw out meta and has done so a lot this game it's interesting to note that this is the first time she does it for DYH as a wagon starts to form on him.
While she seems to be struggeling to decide between GB and DYH she says she's staying on GB in #712 and then in the very next post (#718)
On April 25 2016 07:29 Half the Sky wrote: 31/40
It's DYH, here we go.
The way her read on DYH developed from D1 to EoD2 seems very suspect, especially the final swap when literally one min before she had said she was staying on GB.
While there was more stuff throught this cycle that seemed kinda townie or not as noteworthy to me I can't ignore how suspect HtS's EoD's were on both D1 and D2.
I think I'm done, I'm about halfway through Pg 5 of HtS's filter and I'm not sure how much I'm gunna get from the next few pages.
HtS definitely makes a fair bit of sense as mafia here. However, it's true that I'm kinda looking for things that might point to her being mafia, associations with DYH and SL, etc. So there is probably some level of confirmation bias going on. Therefor I'm going to take a break and come back to look at Gum's filter with similar scrutiny.
|
On April 30 2016 08:49 Tictock wrote, among other things: From my pov we have confirmed town Tumble, Koshi is is almost certainly town (or deserves the win if mafia), Shape who is probably town from DYH's D1 push and my shitty reasoning from earlier. Which leaves HtS and Gum. I don't like the comment "or deserves the win if scum". I don't know whether that's because I think it's scummy, or entirely because that's a stupid phrase. Just leave it out. Say, "Koshi is almost certainly town." There. 1 scum point awarded to TT for saying something so bad, like town would award scum a win for playing so well. onto relevant points I think your Shape townread is unfounded, but it's an odd read for scum to make, because Shape is a totally viable mislynch target for scum.
arrrghhh I have weak reasons but strong vibes
|
Was tempted to call it a night, but I'm gunna look at Gum's filter while I have the modivation.
I kinda like the opener #78 it's lighthearted and jokey as are the next few posts.
Where Gum starts to get interesting is where he kinda vote jokes Damdred in #83 then in #93 acts more like it's a serious read. Then in the very next post #95 drops that read and backs off. I'd pass this up if it were clear that most of this was early game banter but the way he drops it in #95 doesn't give me that sense.
#290 is where Gum reenters the game with his scum read on me, and in his next post #293 he says he is also willing to lynch FF for wasting posts.
Here in #320 Gum has this weird read on SL and adds him to his lynch pool, but then decidesFF is better in #344. #344 was the post HtS called out but honestly it's not that bad since it was clear Gum was looking between SL and FF. If it weren't for Gum "accidently" voting SL I would say it looked like Gum never really intended to vote SL and his vote on FF was consistent with his reads.
Overall D1 doesn't look great for Gum, his main pushes were on me and w/e the push on Damdred was, neither went anywhere. His read on SL could be indicative of him being scum with SL, however thinking more about the accidental vote thing I'm not sure it makes sense for scum to do that besides it being a complete mistake. If you are going to bus a teammate you want the credit for it or to gain something at least, voting SL like Gum did does nothing to help Gum or his team. Also his vote ending on FF fits with his reads.
Some wierd stuff, but I'm not sure any of it fits scum agenda very well. Biggest things I noted where how Gum backed off his reads on Damdred and me rather easily/quickly, and his kinda weird read on SL nearing EoD.
I like #431 just his assessment of the fight between me and him and his read on Shape for being the last to vote on FF feel pretty towny. They are things scum is unlikely to say as it narrows the lynch pool.
D2 Gum starts off with WIFOM regarding why Damdred was killed and votes Tumble because of it, after Tumble claims he goes full maytr mode and dissapears. When he gets back he starts going pretty hard on GB and obv continued to do so up to GB's lynch last phase. The case on GB in #586 is Gum's first WoT.
Here is a kinda interesting post, #589, it doesn't feel like the way scummates relate in thread. Especially telling DYH that he should lynch Gum before Koshi (who DYH was pushing then). This could be dissociation plays maybe but it doesn't feel like it. A bit less sure about #609 though it doesn't particularly seem like DYH cares if Gum dies of not.
Moving forward towards EoD Gum was pushing GB hard and mentions he isn't very happy about the DYH lynch. Then in #714 we have like the worst bus ever if that's what Gum did here. Honestly I just can't believe someone who knows DYH is going to flip red would make a post like that.
This filter dive is over. I'm not even going to bother looking at the whole Gum vs GB thing again because there is already a lot here that suggests Gum cannot be mafia. Hell even just the fact that Gum kept his strong scumread on GB from D2 here all the way to the point that GB flipped town is pretty town indicative.
I'd like to know where Gum's head is at today though, him doing basically nothing today makes me a little worried he could still be scum trying to fence sit and see how things pan out, especially when the focus is very much so off him.
|
I really can't be bothered to finish those filters, it's 1am where I am now.
I have a few misgivings still about Gum, but I also see some pretty decent reasons to townread him as well. His EoD's D1 and D2 don't look great, but honestly they dont really suggest much scum agenda either. He voted for SL in a way that gains no cred, and he voted DYH with what seemed like genuine regret to be giving up on his GB read. Neither of these moves were made to gain cred and help him survive and his pushing on GB and maytring while possible to come from scum seem more likely to be town, especially in the positions Gum has been in.
Compared with HtS's filter and reads, it's almost night and day. HtS mentions DYH alot be refuses to make an effort to read him untill a wagon starts on him, THEN goes to find meta which suggests me could be scum. Her flip onto FF over SL looks pretty sus when she was townreading and defending FF for a good part of the day. She used meta to suddenly swap her read on FF to scum and swap off SL. Now again today she is using a largely Meta argument against me, and without really comparing her points to my town games.
I could maybe be wrong about Shape, and I'll try to take a look at his filter tomorrow, but honestly having looked through all that I think it has to be HtS.
##Vote Half the Sky
|
9/40
On April 30 2016 08:49 Tictock wrote: I was gunna read filters tonight but some stuff has come up and idk if I'll get time.
HtS the thing thats odd about you to me is that today you seem to be pushing me and not considering anyone else. You kinda brushed off my point about your meta read on me saying you looked at Haunted mansion, but tbh most of your points really come down to the same thing you were admonishing Fidei for, it's mostly just a fear read "He does a good job at looking townie as scum" and tbh I'm not sure any of your points are exclusive to my scum games.
But putting that aside (and tbh it's kinda omgus anyways) I see stuff that still makes me think you can be town here, so I'd like to understand why you don't seem to be considering anyone else today.
From my pov we have confirmed town Tumble, Koshi is is almost certainly town (or deserves the win if mafia), Shape who is probably town from DYH's D1 push and my shitty reasoning from earlier. Which leaves HtS and Gum.
Gum did a lot of martyring D2 and then came back to start playing near EoD and picked it up enough to get everyone off him. D3 he tunneled GB hard, had that fight with him that looked pretty likely to be TvT and to some extent continued his martyering (he made several mentions of "you guys should lynch me or GB"). Today, nothing.
HtS has honestly seemed town to me all game, putting in tons of effort and I've felt like a lot of her reads were being good and objective, not just pushing for a mislynch (that feeling has changed today though). I don't recall any solid pushes from her though, was pretty solidly on LS D1 but was all over the place EoD and her shift onto FF was shady given she had been semi-defending him earlier. I don't really recall off the top of my head where her head was at D3 but tbh I was kinda tunneled on Fidei so wasn't paying a ton of attn. Now today is fairly hard pushing me.
HtS does make a good point that SL did push her a fair bit D1 when there was literally no reason for him to bus her.
So I'm leaning towards Gum being the last mafia right now. I'm interested in checking his reactions to the DYH wagon D2, and I kinda want to reread the stuff between him and GB as that fight is kinda the main reason why I and I think a lot of people are TRing him right now. (this is more a mental note for me when I go to read his filter)
It should be pretty obvious from reading all the filters - I've had my reasons to TR other people. To sum up things in one line -
First I'm pushing you after reading and considering anyone else so you saying or suggesting that I'm not considering anyone else is basically inaccurate at best or framing me as scum at worst. As for gumshoe I'll comment that he looked shite from the votes alone but it was day 2/day 3 gameplay that had me think he was town.
Second both you (and Koshi) obviously are ignoring the pushes I had on GB day 2.
Third I'm not fear reading you, fear reads are just that, there are other substantiated points against you that I wasn't going to beat with a dead horse. There are people that are townreading you or not looking at you closely enough and again in one sentence - people shouldn't give you a pass for the cases you are writing without thinking it through.
|
8/40
On April 30 2016 12:05 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40
My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments.
101
The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point.
The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor.
110
Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced.
Moving on to LS, which is easily explained.
Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so. Honestly HtS how can you make posts like this without fucking quoting the goddam quote.
I have half a mind to vote you just for making me go through this...
This is actually pretty forced, and I'm glad Tumble actually saw this as well.
|
9/40
There are a few things where Tictock takes things out of context so I'll break it down.
On April 30 2016 14:31 Tictock wrote:[...] Nothing much else stuck out to me throughout Pg4 of HtS's filter, so we are zooming into EoD2 where we see in #677 HtS is kinda defending DYH (though it looks more like a null read that she has on him) then in #689 is suddenly jumping to meta DYH "so I can deal with my phobia." Given that she loves to throw out meta and has done so a lot this game it's interesting to note that this is the first time she does it for DYH as a wagon starts to form on him. While she seems to be struggeling to decide between GB and DYH she says she's staying on GB in #712 and then in the very next post (#718) The way her read on DYH developed from D1 to EoD2 seems very suspect, especially the final swap when literally one min before she had said she was staying on GB. While there was more stuff throught this cycle that seemed kinda townie or not as noteworthy to me I can't ignore how suspect HtS's EoD's were on both D1 and D2.
D1 vote, I won't beat with a dead horse.
Tictock's highlighting of this quote for day 2 is problematic because the ONLY thing I was saying here was that DYH is the lynch and not that DYH was mafia. It's almost hilarious how he's trying to extrapolate how I just conclude out of NOWHERE as EITHER alignment (if you think about it) that the mafia HAS to be DYH. The fact he's framing this as mafia indicative indicates he's scum going for the mislynch here.
Second, the reason I was willing to draw more on meta with Fecalfeast is because I've played significantly more with him than with DYH (only one game, this being the second) and I can more rely on meta with someone like FF than with DYH. So that should answer the question there. So framing that as suspicious or suggesting that is also a problem.
This reeks of how he took Tumble out of context day 1 - this should NOT go ignored if/when/should I flip.
On April 30 2016 16:17 Tictock wrote: I really can't be bothered to finish those filters, it's 1am where I am now.
I have a few misgivings still about Gum, but I also see some pretty decent reasons to townread him as well. His EoD's D1 and D2 don't look great, but honestly they dont really suggest much scum agenda either. He voted for SL in a way that gains no cred, and he voted DYH with what seemed like genuine regret to be giving up on his GB read. Neither of these moves were made to gain cred and help him survive and his pushing on GB and maytring while possible to come from scum seem more likely to be town, especially in the positions Gum has been in.
Compared with HtS's filter and reads, it's almost night and day. HtS mentions DYH alot be refuses to make an effort to read him untill a wagon starts on him, THEN goes to find meta which suggests me could be scum. Her flip onto FF over SL looks pretty sus when she was townreading and defending FF for a good part of the day. She used meta to suddenly swap her read on FF to scum and swap off SL. Now again today she is using a largely Meta argument against me, and without really comparing her points to my town games.
I could maybe be wrong about Shape, and I'll try to take a look at his filter tomorrow, but honestly having looked through all that I think it has to be HtS.
##Vote Half the Sky
I explained Day 1 why I meta read FF more extensively. Also mentioning DYH a "lot" was me interacting with him and the pointed way in which he was reading some people and not others was what drew my attention to him.
You framing it the way you are "mentioning DYH a lot but not reading him" is a mafia-indicative way of putting it because that WAS the very basis I used to further look into him when LS brought up his meta.
The last argument about not considering your town games is completely untrue.
Everyone - among other things like his Day 1 play and the associative reads on - I want you all to look closely at how Tictock is framing the arguments against me, this is exactly what he's done once already this game with Tumble and how it also compares to points in his other scum games. (In Haunted Mansion, his points were more direct, by constrast.) Even if you mislynch me today YOU DO NOT IGNORE THE WAY TICTOCK IS FRAMING ARGUMENTS IN MYLO END OF.
|
10/40
I have a tonne of stuff plus a milestone birthday party to attend tonight so I will have very limited time. I'll do my best to rove on mobile and answer questions from here through End of Day.
But if people are scared of me or cannot get over the D1 vote, you absolutely should go ahead and mislynch me and then lynch Tictock in mylo after you review how he made the arguments against me, it's not from a town standpoint in the least, and you should also take into consideration how he kept doubting Fidei's claim even without a counterclaim.
|
11/40
Also to answer to Koshi's concern about sicklucker bussing me - sicklucker will bus in situations where it makes sense. He bussed me in Void but I was the underperforming/semi-inactive mafia in that game. It benefitted him and he (more or less) carried. Here it would not make sense for him to do that, especially when he was vanilla and the last remaining player is the likely RB.
(In Void, he was rolecop, I was vanilla)
Take that as you will, but I thought I'd also set the record straight there too.
|
HtS your case on me N3 in #1031 was all meta based, and because you say I am posting just to post. You link and talk about my first 2 scum games and ignore the most recent ones and also show no signs of considering my town games till I point that out then you say this.
On April 30 2016 00:01 Half the Sky wrote: 3/40
Tictock, I know I didn't say it, but I read a few of your town games as well. In Haunted Mansion, for example, you were much more concise, a lot less tentative, and said your reads with conviction. They were a lot more pointed than they were in this game. That is one of the biggest reasons I actually brought up the posting just to post because you were quite the opposite there.
And the reason I'm using meta is because I'm drawing parallels between your scum games and the stuff here.
Which is hardly considering my town meta.
All the rest of the stuff you talk about is this or that stuff I posted "feeling forced" or being contrived but without much to back that up.
So yea, it's pretty weird that you haven't relooked at people like Gum who on the surface does seem fairly scummy with how his votes played out.
You talk about how SL pushed you in #1053 as a defense for yourself. Sure SL made some posts that parroted what others like Damdred were saying about you, but it was hardly a push on you. Hell even the vote SL made on you was at a time when you were super unlikely to be lynched, and he hopped off just as fast as he hopped on.
In #1054 today you say this about me:
If people aren't willing to buy into my case or read into it, at least look back at the D1 play. Tictock generally emulates his town play well as mafia, so that's part of the reason I felt it necessary to highlight meta. Look at the reads between him and the flipped mafia, etc.
Which is 100% a fear read only backed up with the meta stuff you had posted before. What reads between me and SL or DYH are you talking about? You never elaborate on stuff that actually happened THIS game.
On April 30 2016 22:25 Half the Sky wrote:8/40 Show nested quote +On April 30 2016 12:05 Tictock wrote:On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40
My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments.
101
The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point.
The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor.
110
Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced.
Moving on to LS, which is easily explained.
Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so. Honestly HtS how can you make posts like this without fucking quoting the goddam quote.
I have half a mind to vote you just for making me go through this... This is actually pretty forced, and I'm glad Tumble actually saw this as well.
Tumble was not talking about this post at all, what seems forced about it? I legit cannot fathom how you made a post where you referred to a post like this:
#101
All underlined and in it's own paragraph, but do not quote the damed thing.
Sure, I agree with what Tumble said and notice I did not scum read you just for putting post #'s in your posts. But I'm standing by the fact that posting like this is more likely to come from a scum mindset because it makes it so much harder to fact check and actually see what you are talking about half the time. It is not why I changed my mind, but it is something that bugged the hell out of me while reading your filter.
On April 30 2016 22:25 Half the Sky wrote:8/40 Show nested quote +On April 30 2016 12:05 Tictock wrote:On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40
My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments.
101
The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point.
The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor.
110
Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced.
Moving on to LS, which is easily explained.
Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so. Honestly HtS how can you make posts like this without fucking quoting the goddam quote.
I have half a mind to vote you just for making me go through this... This is actually pretty forced, and I'm glad Tumble actually saw this as well.
You say I'm taking stuff out of context in #1072 but you can see the context quite clearly from my posts or from your filter itself.
You def had a TR on FF for most of D1, it was when he voted you that you suddenly backed off that read (omgus) then when the votes started moving you found that post and go "Oh this looks like it could be from his scum meta" and move your vote to him.
Maybe you should actually compare how I voted (Stayed on Tumble, with some mild stuff about SL maybe being scum, no interest in jumping on FF) or Gum voted (Half-defended SL, moved to FF, who was an earlier scumread). But I think when you look at the EoD there you come off significantly more suspect HtS because your reads shift quite dramatically for little reason in a short time.
Maybe I did take that one post about DYH out of context, I see you didn't actually vote for him. But my point about how DYH stays on the fridges of your reads until a wagon on him starts is still quite valid. It's as soon and LS and Fidei are voting DYH that you bring out some meta on him that could support him being scum where as before your position on him is almost always "lets wait and see". Which is very similar to what you did with FF D1 before you flopped your vote on him. This is opportunistic metaing at it's finest.
By all means everyone should relook at the posts today and even try to filter dive us both. I'm pretty sure at this point that HtS is the last mafia though and since she is similarly sure then really you guys just have to decide who to lynch first between us. If that doesn't end the game then lynch the other one tomorrow and you are golden.
|
TT his posts here look supertown. I am 100% pocketed and impressed if he is mafia. Putting my vote behind his for the rest of the game.
##unvote ##Vote Half the Sky
Last mafia is never TT. For me.
|
I will use another post to just say how fucking 100% town TT is.
|
On April 30 2016 22:51 Half the Sky wrote: 10/40
I have a tonne of stuff plus a milestone birthday party to attend tonight so I will have very limited time. I'll do my best to rove on mobile and answer questions from here through End of Day.
But if people are scared of me or cannot get over the D1 vote, you absolutely should go ahead and mislynch me and then lynch Tictock in mylo after you review how he made the arguments against me, it's not from a town standpoint in the least, and you should also take into consideration how he kept doubting Fidei's claim even without a counterclaim. I did the exact same thing. If mafia didn't kill Fidei I would have lynched him in 2 v 1 lylo.
That guy looked so scummy...
I still don't understand how he wasn't mafia.
|
For me it is Shape or HTS. I think I said it a lot.
gumshoe got very lucky if he is mafia. Played really well on D2. Made so many posts from a "I am town" POV. For me that is really hard to do as mafia and he just kept doing that over and over.
TT never mafia. If I am wrong I am wrong... but I don't believe it.
|
Gunna take a quick stroll through Shape's filter just to be thorough.
On April 20 2016 07:29 Shapelog wrote: Going to beat your arses. Fastest tortoise alive.
As I already have said, Going to be focus on content this game.
Will waste about 5 of my posts to get the ball moving Day 1. Then i switch into content mode.
Weakish open but has a lighthearted tone with the joke about tortoises.
Follows through with his first 5 posts being pretty jokey and devoid of much content.
Next few posts is just responding to stuff. In #119 he seems to TR Damdred for getting the ball going despite the joke scumread, and he stands by his dislike of policy lynches. In #124 he disagrees with LS's early scumlean on me by pointing to my recent scumgames, says he will reread my resent posts. Follows through with that in #134 while he also mentions finding HtS's push on LS a little odd. Next post, #135 continues this line of thought pointing out a contradiction in HtS's posting (she was asking Tumble why he TR LS, when part of her push on Tumble was for why he was TRing LS).
Post #200 is a bit interesting as it's Shapes first mention of SL and DYH, all he really says is that they are silent though.
Noting that in #207 that Shape pushes Damdred a little for a small contradiction. Tracks that he is looking out for contradictions in peoples play and pushing those, even though his overall scumhunting and pushes are a little on the weak side.
A Wild WoT appears! #241 is Shapes first WoT and list post, scum reads on me, SL, and GB.
As we get into EoD Shape goes back to making smaller posts, and expresses concern for the vote spread in #241. In #286 Shape reviews his scumreads and concludes that SL has basically done nothing and places his vote on him with the next post #297.
Shape expresses concerns with FF in #335 and later kinda haphazardly switches his vote to FF in #359. He later talks more about this switch to Damdred in #405. Eh, while the swap off SL to FF looks meh given the flips the way that Shape started to question FF and then still had reservations as he swapped doesn't look terribly opportunistic to me. It's also been pointed out that Shape stayed on SL much longer than a scummate probably would. I'll note that Shape had a TR on FF back in his big list post, but it was based on feels and Shape admits he hasn't bothered to try to meta FF at all.
So far I'm not seeing much to really sway me either way here, a few townie thoughts and reads but nothing that strong and EoD reads and vote moving ended up being mafia sided but again it's not that strong.
This was also covering about half of Shapes filter, so he has kinda dropped off fairly hard this game. Maybe he's mafia suffering burn out?
Back to reading... In #479 Shape questions HtS's associative read on Tumble and SL. That's all we get before he has RL issues of getting thrown in jail (I'll just assume this is true).
Once back in the game he votes DYH.
On April 25 2016 07:26 Shapelog wrote: I've litterlay don't have time to read shit.
I voted DYH because I can't remember anything other than the sus. about him and that is about it. Still reading thoy and this is his only other post before DYH flips.
On April 25 2016 07:29 Shapelog wrote: Someone give me a quick reason why the thread thinks they are scum so I can catch up faster.
Personally, just skimming through GB's fliter, I like it a bit more than DYH.
Looking into the timeline a little, Shape returns to the game when it is only LS voting DYH and his vote and followup on DYH feels too weak to be a bus tbh. If Shape was just mafia lurking here it's odd he'd return like this to go for a weak bus on DYH with no attempt to discuss/defend DYH at all.
Skimming the rest of Shapes filter kus I don't want to spend all day on this.
I'm noting that Shape starts to pick up the posting after DYH dies, there's quite a few WoT type posts poping up. Seems to jump on Fidei, then goes back and forth between me and him a little after the claim (agrees with something I questioned about Fidei's claim, while also questioning my response to Fidei's questions to me).
Idk, I could maybe see Shape being mafia from his filter, but I don't think the pieces fit all that well. Then also factoring in that DYH had a fairly strong push on Shape D1 I think it's pretty unlikely that Shape is mafia. Also this reasoning still stands firm imo, even though it's kinda bad. (this was my bad reason to townread him earlier)
Last game as the last mafia alive Shape took 2 blue's with him into 3 man lylo, and here we know that Fidei was RB'd D1 so the last mafia has to be the RB. If Shape was scum here I'm like 90% sure he would have RB'd Fidei and left him alive for the WIFOM, especially since Fidei was fairly set in his scumread on HtS.
Plus everyone but Koshi has Shape as like confirmed town so I'm fairly sure he's been spewed town.
|
|
|
|