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On October 25 2016 00:32 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 00:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On October 25 2016 00:27 Kurumi wrote:On October 25 2016 00:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On October 25 2016 00:23 Kurumi wrote:On October 25 2016 00:19 iamperfection wrote:On October 25 2016 00:12 Kurumi wrote: Sigh I still don't have time nor the energy to really play the game. Lord Tolkien has been obvious Mafia from D1, Vivax is not scum, I don't really understand what are you trying to do with bringing Lunaticman as a counterwagon. Also if your so busy how do you now vivax is town you manage to read his recent posts? I thought you were busy? I read his filter, I am not going to give out an opinion out of nothing, I would if I were Mafia, but I'd never tell you guys about the lack of time if I were. I feel bad about not giving this game enough time, but between feeling radical anger or sadness, I have uni to keep eye on. So what in his filter makes you think he's not scum? Nothing is wrong in his filter + context - he has not spammed the thread, did not bicker with anyone, he left riff-raff where it was and reads Lord Tolkien Mafia for all the correct reasons. So you believe a subdued, inactive vivax is.. town? Since I am subdued, inactive and Town, so probably is Vivax. The story has already been told with Holyflare, you people read him scum for his slow play and wanted to shoot/lynch him and Mafia got him in the end, while he clearly was Town. I guess we should dig up his filter, it's short for this game... Difference is that you're townreading him for things that are NAI at BEST. For Vivax, these are scumtells, and you should be aware of that by now. Sure, it's not a slam dunk, but calling him town for things that make him more likely to be mafia just because you're doing them confounds me.
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On October 25 2016 01:36 beentheredonethat wrote: So, last 10 minutes for me before I'm off to Volleyball. Training ends at ~10.15/10.30pm so maybe I'll make it in time to deadline. Will be around shortly before or after 11pm.
I don't feel good at believing Koshi's claim. I want to explain my stance on this a bit more before I depart and I ask you guys to carefully consider if you are believing the claim or not.
Contra
1. It was an easy claim. There is no way that a role would counterclaim what Koshi claimed. Given it's a themed game and we do not know which roles are in besides the flipped ones and our own roles, there is absolutely no problem for Koshi to fake claim a double lynch ability.
2. Day and Night 1 Day 1 and Night 1 Koshi was absolutely scummy. At no point he tried to solve the game. His replies under pressure were full of bragging, derailing, and not even close to a serious discussion that would even remotely imply he is town. He has been scumread all game and the reasons for that read are absolutely solid. Besides the claim, there absolutely no reason to not scumread Koshi. His "cases" he put up are salty, WIFOM and bad. There is absolutely no effort that could be interpreted as townie besides the claim.
3. Ability volatility From what Koshi said, he has an ability to make two lynches flip within one day. First of all, reading my own abilities (which fully resolve around HP mechanics and in no way about anything else, yes, that's as close to a VT claim as it gets in this game) makes me feel really uncertain about that kind of ability being town-aligned.
Worst case: two town wagons flip. Medium case: one scum, one town flips. Best case: two scums flip.
I'm not good at math but given the likely scum to town distribution, I think the worst case is way more likely than the best case. This ability will become good in certain scenarios, agreed - but it is such a potential game changer that I don't think hosts will put this ability into the game. Although, if I'm really honest here, if that ability is indeed part of the game then it will most likely be a town ability as scum would be safe and sound to use that ability.
4. Koshi is not today's lynch Which makes his rage hard to believe. Koshi should know he's not going to be the lynch today. He should know that we're all rather calm players that are willing to reconsider if we are given solid stuff to work with. He's however not even trying to go down the reasonable road, although I explicitely offered him the opportunity to do so by asking him to calm down, leave the thread, return with solid reads, analysis and simply more town behaviour. Keep in mind he still hasn't dropped a solid read list that we could work with if he flipped town at any point. There's literally nothing of value in Koshi's filter that we could work with if he flipped town. A worthless Lunatic push is the best he could do thus far.
Pro
1. Most likely, town ability As written above, I do not think that hosts would put that ability in the hands of mafia. That would be really imbalanced, basically allowing mafia to mislynch two people at once. Given we all have attacks and are likely to kill each other that would be really, really tough to deal with.
2. Koshi's rage over the day Although I talked about that at the contra section already, I think there's also the possibility that this is town rage and genuine. Early Koshi felt lackluster, not really caring, and I thought this is highly indicative of his scum style of the previous 3 games of which 2 I hosted. In none of those games I have seen Koshi rage that hard when being under pressure. On the other hand, in none of these games was Koshi as much under pressure as he is right now.
Those are the cons and pros that I can come up with at this point. For my judgement, this is not enough pro to believe the claim. This is why I would like you guys to only start a second wagon that was started by a more or less townread person. I would suggest taco bell hamazuro guy to be the second wagon. Yes, there's a chance he might be replaced or modkilled - but as ritoky said, we can't be sure of that. We should definitely go for the people that are not playing the game at all, as others already mentioned, and I think that guy is a good target. Why not Lunatic or Skynx? Lunatic is the easy target. He's doing not much. But the thing is that Koshi has been pushing him a lot. So either it's bussing, starting from D1, or scum!Koshi trying to direct one more mislynch, or town!Koshi vs. whatever Lunatic, I don't care. Either way, we should re-evaluate Lunatic once Koshi has flipped. Koshi will flip (or not) depending on what's happening at this very deadline. This is why I wouldn't choose Lunatic for today's second wagon, although he's worth a lynch, vig shot, or simply stacked damage after all.
Skynx on the other hand is actually every now and again trying to play the game. I have him as a scumread but I really need to reevaluate his filter, I haven't done so yet, so a full day cycle is currently missing in my read of Skynx. Also, note how Koshi voted him, then switched to Lunatic.
(Also, look at Artanis, who was scumread by HF (confirmed town) and voted with Koshi on Skynx and on Lunatic, which can be coincidence, but it worries me. Talking more about Artanis: his thoughts over the day feel reasonable and I tend to actually like what he's writing. However his push on GlowingBear in the context of Lunatic, Skynx, and Vivax being the lynches today, it feels empty. Pressuring GB when town is on other persons with a single vote won't work. It's also very safe to go for GB as scum since GB is not playing the game, low hanging fruits and shit, easy target to appear pushy but stay under the radar).
Also, still, someone should evaluate NocturneMage's filter! There must be a reason why he was killed N1 shortly after having replaced in. Regarding Koshi: Koshi has a history of raging a lot as town, especially when he's not getting his way and it hasn't been proven he's wrong yet. I also don't think Koshi is creative enough to come up with this idea out of thin air so there's likely some truth in it, plus I don't really see a negative to creating a second wagon.
As for your points on me, or rather, the only point on me: I was hoping to get more people to notice how GB has done fuck all and put him up as a second wagon. Unfortunately I am not clairvoyant and can therefore not guess that I'd be the only vote on him. Also not sure what you're trying to infer with the Koshi vote pattern thing. It'd be pretty awful scum play if Koshi and I were scum together and I completely sheeped him when both of us have large question marks over our heads. If you're implying town/scum I'm not sure what your point is.
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On October 25 2016 02:34 WaveofShadow wrote: Yup. Defs getting the jibblies. For some reason I feel like him and Artanis can't be scum together. Dunno why I think that though. Maybe cause 'A' names Hint: + Show Spoiler +
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On October 25 2016 02:30 GlowingBear wrote: Wtf how am I not playinf the game, I'm postibg here every couple if hours and I already gave reads I'VE got.
I'm not being useless, I'm giving bits of information every time.
I already said I think ptmc is town. I now think Artanis is town based on meta - I don't think this is the way he plays as mafia, he is not too try hard and he is not accusing people and sticking to that argument without rethinking them. His approach on me looks pretty townie IMO. I also think Koshi might be town, his posts seems very fluid with not so much thought put on them.
Ritoky is a question mark. He doesn't seem very interested into solving the game. Could be mafia.
Acrofales was very invested in the game, but his efforts kinda dropped. He was (or is) one of the most active players in the game, but I don't see him putting effort into actually having his targets lynched. Yes, I know Vivax is getting lynched, but I don't remember him being thoughtful about the future cycles.
Iamp may be town and I can be paranoid, but I think I have a solid argument on him being town.
I haven't read Skynx's post with much attention but I have a gut feeling he could be mafia. I can't explain why. It's a feeling.
That's all I have for now Fine, you can live. I dunno about Acro though, he's been very useful early on but you may be right in that he's kinda laying back.
Someone I also kinda have the jeebies for is Tubesock. He comments a lot on things that come by and says smart stuff but he doesn't really do anything.
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I need to stop reading filters. It makes me stop scumreading people way too often :/
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I would like to second all of dandel's posts pretty much the entire game.
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Except that not liking tea makes me a monster. Tea just really isn't that good.
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On October 25 2016 04:17 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 04:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Except that not liking tea makes me a monster. Tea just really isn't that good. tea is mostly gross. Now you're just blatantly buddying me.
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On October 25 2016 04:21 Dandel Ion wrote: beer is overrated af, almost as bad as coffee
tea is almost water and water is the single greatest thing in the world so ofc tea is a close second Apple juice>water>ale>tea>coffee=beer
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On October 25 2016 04:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 04:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On October 25 2016 04:21 Dandel Ion wrote: beer is overrated af, almost as bad as coffee
tea is almost water and water is the single greatest thing in the world so ofc tea is a close second Apple juice>water>ale>tea>coffee=beer Dafuq? Anyway, you know ale is beer, right? Beer is not a synonym for lager. beer=coffee is the only part in your list that I agree with. It's basically: beer=coffee>fruit juice (really, any fruit) > tea > water Anybody who disagrees is scum. Ale might be a type of beer but not all beer is ale. Other kinds of beer suck. You're scum for these faulty opinions.
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On October 25 2016 05:25 ptmc wrote: any last minute shenanigans that is drowning in the beverage discussion? I'm drinking tea, of course Iunno. I'm around but watching sc2 with Tina from bed mostly. Kinda happy with how things are tbh.
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Can everyone townread me so I can get shot N2? That'd be cool.
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On October 25 2016 05:35 beentheredonethat wrote: Rereading my big post on Koshi pro/cons, I feel like I have judged too much out of a "Koshi is definitely scum" mindset. Artanis, can you point me to Koshi games where he raged as town? Like, now? I refer to the ban list thread. You're most likely to find which games Koshi raged in from the ban list actions.
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His ban list filter is about as long as his filter this game if that gives any indication.
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Lets just see what happens from this supposed double lynch and go from there.
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On October 25 2016 05:44 GlowingBear wrote: Wait, today is a double lynch? Supposedly koshi's ability kills the second person in the tally or it deals damage based on votes or something
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On October 25 2016 05:49 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 05:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On October 25 2016 05:44 GlowingBear wrote: Wait, today is a double lynch? Supposedly koshi's ability kills the second person in the tally or it deals damage based on votes or something Oh we should definetly form a second wagon, shouldn't we? Have you opened the vote thread at all?
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Many questionable people bringing up ritoky only makes my townleanboner on him stronger.
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On October 25 2016 05:54 Dandel Ion wrote: so how's everyone feeling tonight
ready for an excruciating hour of waiting? Do we have to be quiet for an hour till the flip comes? :/
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On October 25 2016 05:56 Dandel Ion wrote:that was at iamp Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 05:56 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On October 25 2016 05:54 Dandel Ion wrote: so how's everyone feeling tonight
ready for an excruciating hour of waiting? Do we have to be quiet for an hour till the flip comes? :/ yuppppppp Fffffff
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