On July 27 2009 06:49 Caller wrote:
omg too many people
going to have to start making cuts
omg too many people
going to have to start making cuts
But won't you do that anyway after the vote on day 1? Everyone should be given a chance to play imo =)
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On July 27 2009 06:49 Caller wrote: omg too many people going to have to start making cuts But won't you do that anyway after the vote on day 1? Everyone should be given a chance to play imo =) | ||
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On July 29 2009 20:17 Malongo wrote: Show nested quote + On July 29 2009 20:12 Ver wrote: On July 29 2009 19:50 Shikyo wrote: So wait, why are so many people voting for L? ionno, wanting to cause some chaos? LOL this is stupid, its not like theres a mafia bandwagon going now. Of course, but why vote for someone with no platform =S | ||
Shikyo
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Also, Ace is the only person making sense here, it's really good to have him in this game. I'm not sure if I'd elect him as the officer yet, but he seems like the best candidate. I really don't think he's mafia at this point. | ||
Shikyo
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On July 29 2009 22:44 Caller wrote: it has come to my attention that there is some serious cheating going on. I will likely have to replace any affected roles, and so I ask if anybody would be willing to sub in for these roles (not existing players, lol) Let us know the names of all the cheaters =) Hmmm and it might actually this time around be beneficial for some townies to act like they were mafia. What an interesting game. | ||
Shikyo
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On July 29 2009 23:20 coltrane wrote: I sended something like this to LucasWooj, but i corrected something i noticed when i copied it here. No problem! Its quite simple, but the numbers are really big. It is called combinatory. You want to know how many posible cases are from something to happen... lets say I have 1 dice, that is the first collum I have 6 posible results, thats the second row. I have 5 usefull values, thats the third (just 5 others are no mafia) So, when i have 2 dices in first collumn i have many posible rolls, 21 posible, some of them are the same. Finally i will only have 6 couples among those 2 not mafia. With these small numbers it closes sooner, as the inflexion point is when mafia is 1/4 of town. Then the third collumn start to shrink again. what i did was consider a 53 sided dice to 54 players, because you wont rolecheck on yourself. And did it from 1 dice to 26, because in 27 you cant have a clean DT for ukranians, they would always detect other ukranian, exept in one only case. as i used c++ to computate it the numbers are in scientific notation, so 6.92568e+10 is meaning 70KKK and 4.90131e+6 is meaning 50KK What on earth do those numbers mean anyway? Seems like pointless glibberish to me. Also, have you possibly thought that not everyone plays this game with a set of dices? Maybe they, like, see who they think is mafia and check them, or check people who they think are blue(or red in this game, w/e)? In that case your numbers might become useless, da. Everyone, keep in mind who you think seem like terrible choices for officers and also keep note of who are voting for them. Even though mafia doesn't know who each other are, they will most likely vote for the worst possible electee for town. Use your own judgement. People who abstain are suspicious as well, especially if they don't ever switch vote for anyone. | ||
Shikyo
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On July 29 2009 23:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Shikyo his explanation is a little hard to understand but I believe the math behind it makes sense and there is a certain value to having a correct statistical interpretation of the game 30 people 5 mafia 60 people 10 mafia = this game has 8-10. O_o | ||
Shikyo
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I'd like to nominate this song for our national anthem. ^_^ | ||
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On July 30 2009 01:52 coltrane wrote: I am reminding in this page again: Is better for town if NKVD appears as ukranian to DT cuz that way mafia gets less info from their DTS and town gets the exact same info. Well... what happens when an NKVD checks an NKVD posing as an Ukrainian? If all NKVDs pose as Ukrainians, how can you ever trust in an Ukrainian rolecheck? Or are you planning on just getting them all killed and hoping that none of them is an NKVD agent? I'm not completely convinced if the gains outweigh the losses. | ||
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On July 30 2009 03:13 LucasWoJ wrote: Show nested quote + On July 30 2009 02:38 ~OpZ~ wrote: Current Tally: LucasWoJ: (3) LucasWoJ t_co Chezinu L: (5) ~OpZ~ Ver motbob Kuja900 StorrZerg Ace: (7) teks Siefu Scaramanga iNfuNdiBuLuM Falcynn Last Romantic Zato-1 Person935: (1) Person935 Abstain: (10) fnaticNoname Shikyo ecomania Railxp Malongo Scamp Fishball Plexa softer ItsPaul Coltrane: (1) coltrane Malongo: (1) c.ngeK Not counting MountainDew Mountaindew has three left: chaoser, vivi, and ilovkt Doesn't matter when he's not in the game. Anyway, I waited for an experienced player's opinion and Ace's was just as I expected. | ||
Shikyo
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On July 30 2009 04:44 Zato-1 wrote: Well, I've put forth my case. If you like it, fine, if you don't, that's fine too. At any rate, I'm not going to be Field Marshall (while you might) so I'm just trying to present the upsides of the other approach. At any rate, the worst we can do is have everyone going off and trying their thing- I say, let the elected Field Marshall decide whether all the agents will disguise themselves as rebels, or whether none of them will. I'll just say that normally it is a terrible idea to have the elected officer decide for things like that, simply because if he's ukrainian, he'll just do everything to hurt the town. | ||
Shikyo
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On July 30 2009 04:48 Zato-1 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 30 2009 04:42 Ace wrote: If he is an NKVD Agent what makes you think he will live 2 days to use up all his rolechecks? The NKVD agent who came up with the RC contacts the suspect personally, and the Field Marshall as well. Nothing has to be said publicly so the Ukranians won't suspect him. Show nested quote + On July 30 2009 04:42 Ace wrote:ETA: Once again let's assume our enemies aren't stupid. How is an NKVD Agent going to get into the Rebel organization? How do you suppose the rebels will form an organization in the first place? They RC people, and if they turn up as rebels, they get added to the rebel network. If the NKVD agent is posing as a rebel, then the rebels either don't organize themselves at all, OR they accept anyone who comes up as a rebel in a RC into their organization- they have no other way of telling if any given person is a rebel or not. How will the detected ukrainian be lynched if nothing is said publicly? And are you really telling everything to the field marshall? And if it was established that every DT would appear as an ukrainian, do you really think they'd contact everyone they RC as ukrainians? | ||
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On July 30 2009 04:49 Zato-1 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 30 2009 04:47 Shikyo wrote: On July 30 2009 04:44 Zato-1 wrote: Well, I've put forth my case. If you like it, fine, if you don't, that's fine too. At any rate, I'm not going to be Field Marshall (while you might) so I'm just trying to present the upsides of the other approach. At any rate, the worst we can do is have everyone going off and trying their thing- I say, let the elected Field Marshall decide whether all the agents will disguise themselves as rebels, or whether none of them will. I'll just say that normally it is a terrible idea to have the elected officer decide for things like that, simply because if he's ukrainian, he'll just do everything to hurt the town. Wait what? The elected officer can be ukranian? O.o I thought his role would change to Field Marshall if a Ukranian was chosen to begin with... Do you think that after election a mafia becomes a townie? No comment. | ||
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On July 30 2009 05:12 Zato-1 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 30 2009 05:07 Ace wrote: Even If the Field Marshal is a confirmed innocent you still haven't answered this REALLY basic question: how do you sort through the liars? I already answered this, in detail. You don't sort through the liars. You end up lynching whoever comes up as a rebel in a RC. This is one of the problems of the plan, I've stated it quite clearly. The plan also has benefits, which I've listed as well. At any rate, I for one already admitted that it's not a good plan :p How do you lynch them? Do you think the DT just publicly announces that he's the DT? And why should the town believe him? | ||
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Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians). Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own. But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment. | ||
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Man, if the same amount of people are going to be inactive every day... I guess Ace wasn't on here in time to change the lynch? That sucks, although I guess Vivi should have claimed earlier. It's a pretty big blow to, instead of losing just one person, to lose a total of like 8 people out of which only one is an Ukrainian Rebel. | ||
Shikyo
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On July 31 2009 21:26 Sinensis wrote: Show nested quote + On July 31 2009 19:09 Siefu wrote: On July 31 2009 09:13 coltrane wrote: On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote: I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle. Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians). Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own. But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment. Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case. If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such. Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use. So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit). And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge. I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.- Are you admitting you're a dirty rebel or was that just a slip? lol This is a good observation. When I was reading this it looked like the "we" meant the town, since town can't form circles because when a DT claims to any townie that he's a DT, it could have just been a rebel and hence town can't form circles since those DTs can't be trusted. So I think it wasn't a slip-up, you just read it wrong. | ||
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Yeah... if everyone got it what's the point? | ||
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It seems like every correct lynch we make, we lose about 5 townies. If the inactivity doesn't go down, we'll lose the game right away without the Ukrainians having to rely on their hits at all. It.... sucks quite a bit. Especially since tonight we're likely lose even more townies. More townies really can't die to modkills, otherwise we really are screwed. | ||
Shikyo
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Anyway, Ver, I replied to your PM and you most likely already deducted my role from it, but I guess I'll still claim here that I'm a Conscript. At first I wasn't so sure what to think but after tonight it seems quite obvious you're on the town's side. I don't get some things still. Elemenope, for example. Suggesting that everyone is scum? Could be a mafia ploy to cause confusion, or it could be a method to make people ignore you. But it could also just be for the sake of bragging that you were right in the case you were a townie. I noticed that Falcynn, after being quite active in the beginning, even with that detailed information collection thread of his, has been quite inactive for a while now. Or maybe I just have missed his posts, but it's interesting. I believe that most of the medics should protect Ver now, but I'm not sure if they all should, since then the rebels could just go around lynching everyone else and still manage to mow us down with their gigantic kill power. Anyway, I guess we've all pretty much decided that we will lynch Kuja today? How high is RoL in the lynch list? Oh, and before I forget: Everyone, role claim to Ver. | ||
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August 06 2009 15:52 GMT
#1076
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Shikyo
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August 06 2009 16:24 GMT
#1079
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Shikyo
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August 06 2009 16:43 GMT
#1081
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Shikyo
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August 06 2009 17:07 GMT
#1084
On August 07 2009 01:59 chaoser wrote: Show nested quote + On August 07 2009 01:43 Shikyo wrote: why can't every townie say that it did match? he means, one mafia comes out by saying he's mafia, tell everyone to send the message they got from caller saying they are mafia. only people who send in a message that has the exact same wording would be mafia Why can't a townie do that? Come out saying he's a mafia. | ||
Shikyo
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August 06 2009 17:10 GMT
#1087
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August 06 2009 17:14 GMT
#1088
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Shikyo
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August 06 2009 17:28 GMT
#1091
On August 07 2009 02:21 Elemenope wrote: As for as townie coming out as mafia: what would give any reason for this? Everybody else's role has been always the same as posted in the first page as pretty much as far back as I can remember. Yet suddenly, scum PMs are different. Even if a person were to claim, Ace lynches him and becomes confirmed. What would give any reason? Well, a townie says hes mafia and tells to PM him the exact PM. 9 people post the same PM. This person gives out the names in the thread. This person gets killed, comes out as green. The mafia die. | ||
Shikyo
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August 06 2009 17:47 GMT
#1094
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Shikyo
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August 06 2009 18:20 GMT
#1097
remove what | ||
Shikyo
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August 06 2009 18:32 GMT
#1103
But ok, last post for me until it's over. | ||
Shikyo
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August 06 2009 21:06 GMT
#1111
On August 07 2009 06:03 Ace wrote: Show nested quote + On August 07 2009 00:52 Shikyo wrote: Seems like I'm getting vigi'd tonight? I guess I'll take this time to say that I don't like this format at all. Even with like 10 modkills, it still feels unbelievably imbalanced, even impossible for rebels. actually he's right. Rebels were screwed from the beginning, almost impossible to win v_v <3 ace agreeing with me <3 <3 | ||
Shikyo
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August 14 2009 21:30 GMT
#1205
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Shikyo
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August 15 2009 14:59 GMT
#1207
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Shikyo
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August 16 2009 22:38 GMT
#1228
Ukrainian Rebel: You are defender of Ukrainian Republic from all those that seek your destruction! You have two abilities, one usable per night: you may kill a person or you may role check them. Be warned, you do not know who the other Ukrainians are! Your job is to reduce the Red Army down to a force that can be dealt with. Find your fellow Ukrainians and coordinate your attacks! Be weary of infiltrators, however! PM me any questions you may have. ;;~ | ||
Shikyo
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August 17 2009 01:49 GMT
#1235
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