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On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p
I'm very happy to see feast at such an important event,moreover he showed an original style that i liked a lot,GL for MLG ! Of course aligulac has its flaws but in this particular case it is very tricky. Feast and Grubby both have good WoL PvP, but they don't participate to a lot of tournaments offline for a while. Furthermore in the second part of 2012 Feast only managed to get out of major tournaments group once despite playing OK. He and Grubby aren't big online tournaments players. Lastly HotS is changing quite a bit but the DB doesn't account for the meta-game change.
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Aw, poor Grubby. He's stacking up quite a few second place finishes.
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On March 01 2013 08:39 Otolia wrote: Well that's cool for Feast. Hopefully he will train more to perform at the MLG. If he can avoid the Millenium curse (that's a private joke) that would be great.
we all know he's gonna win a game 2-0 and then lost 3-2 :p
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too bad. would have loved to see grubby there, though feast is fine as well
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On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here?
The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again?
Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either.
+ Show Spoiler +Compare with...
The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well.
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On March 01 2013 08:44 Boucot wrote: To be honest, even as a Millenium fan (or rather mainly as a Millenium fan), I'm really surprised (and glad) to see Feast winning this bracket. He didn't really practice for HotS so far and it seems he doesn't like HotS whereas players like Grubby are really training a lot on it.
So yeah, it's a surprising result. I hope it'll give him some confidence to train more and more. He has the skill to shine.
PvP in HotS is still bad in the early game. You can practice a lot of midgame/lategame stuff in PvP and you can just easily die to a smart BO, like Feast did.
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On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. I also get the impression some people just don't know what probabilities really are.. some act as if it's an accurate prediction of the future
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On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. Most people don't get probability. For example many people struggle with the concept that if you flip a coin 10 times and they all are heads the probability of getting a tails is 50% on the 11th throw. Obviously a best of one is the worst way to test a system like yours.
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On March 01 2013 10:34 feanor1 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. Most people don't get probability. For example many people struggle with the concept that if you flip a coin 10 times and they all are heads the probability of getting a tails is 50% on the 11th throw. Obviously a best of one is the worst way to test a system like yours. if the coin isn't rigged, because once you get 10 heads in a row(which has a 0.5^10 of happening), you may start to wonder about the fairness of the game.
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opterown
Australia54649 Posts
On March 01 2013 11:42 Rhaegar_tar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 10:34 feanor1 wrote:On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? The prediction was something like 65% in favour of Grubby and 35% in favour of Feast. So if Grubby and Feast play a lot of games, if Aligulac were right you would expect to see about a third of those won by Feast. That's a pretty significant proportion. If you are about to throw a die and I say you're unlikely to throw a five or a six, and you do, is your gut reaction: (a) my prediction was flawed, (b) the die is loaded, (c) my prediction was flawed because the die is loaded or (d) that actually happens fairly often—let's try again? Of course, you take your chances if you want to use WoL data to predict HotS games. It's not perfect, but it's not useless either. + Show Spoiler +Compare with... The graph looks like it's drunk at the moment because there's not much to go on. Ah well. Most people don't get probability. For example many people struggle with the concept that if you flip a coin 10 times and they all are heads the probability of getting a tails is 50% on the 11th throw. Obviously a best of one is the worst way to test a system like yours. if the coin isn't rigged, because once you get 10 heads in a row(which has a 0.5^10 of happening), you may start to wonder about the fairness of the game. has to happen eventually :p
sad about grubby, but oh well
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On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? I don't understand how Roro, Soulkey, Gumiho and MC have such low rankings. They have all been tearing it up recently (especially Roro) and none are ranked in the top 30 while ForGG, Stephano and Lucifron are?
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On March 01 2013 14:00 wammyz wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 08:58 TheBB wrote:On March 01 2013 08:38 shid0x wrote: Feast showing everyone that numbers and stats aren't everything,i like the stat system thebb made but it has its flaws :p! Yeah it has its flaws, but can I rant for a bit here? I don't understand how Roro, Soulkey, Gumiho and MC have such low rankings. They have all been tearing it up recently (especially Roro) and none are ranked in the top 30 while ForGG, Stephano and Lucifron are?
Apparently Ro8+ in GSL, doing well in GSTL, etc. is worse than beating Nightend and Ret and losing to Thorzain, Naniwa, and Hero over 3 months ago.
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bo1's ? grubby should get the spot or at least bo3 he is the way better gamer loosing in bo1 is so stupid in pvp ...
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Am I the only one who's intrigued about that stargate scout by Feast vs Grubby? Come on, he clicks exactly over the Stargate and then switches to a nearby location enough to scout it... Either Grubby did that in a ladder game in the very same location (and then doing it on the finals is rather stupid) or feast was ghosting somehow.
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He said he played a lot against Grubby in the HotS ladder and went (Feast) always robo expand against him. So he was expecting some kind of stargate play (proxy or not) by Grubby. That's why is also went for DT rush.
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On March 01 2013 21:08 Qwantz wrote: Am I the only one who's intrigued about that stargate scout by Feast vs Grubby? Come on, he clicks exactly over the Stargate and then switches to a nearby location enough to scout it... Either Grubby did that in a ladder game in the very same location (and then doing it on the finals is rather stupid) or feast was ghosting somehow. Maybe there is also the fact that Feast and grubby are good friends and they lived under the same roof for a long time ?
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