This years tour really feels like it's divided between sprinters and all rounders in the first half, with the serious GC battle getting cracking in the second half. The first 8 stages are flat, or lumpy at best though a couple do have finishes up short, sharp hills like day three finishing up on Mur de Huy.
Stage 9 will be the first critical day, as it's a fairly length team time trial. After that, the serious GC fireworks begin with 3 summit finish days. Then about 4 more lumpy stages, though one of them has a 3km 10% climb for it's finish, then back to summit finishes for the next four days before the traditional Champs-Elysees finish.
With less emphasis on the individual TT, guys like Quintana and other small climbers will be pleased.
The Yellow Jersey : Worn by the current leader of the race, represents general time classification
The Green Jersey : Worn by the leader of the General points classification. A sprinters ranking.
The Polka-Dot Jersey : The jersey affiliated with the Best Climber Classification. More commonly known as "The King of The Mountains." It is very rare though that the best climber actually wins this classification though.
The White Jersey : For the Best Young Rider of the race. Basically the yellow jersey for 25 y.o. and younger. It is possible to win both the Yellow and White Jersey.
This Tour de France is the 102st edition, it is 3366km long with 21 stages, and two rest days
LAMPRE - MERIDA (LAM) ITA DURASEK Kristijan CRO FARIA DA COSTA Mario Jorge POR FARIA DA COSTA Rui Alberto POR POZZATO Filippo ITA SANTOS SIMOES OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe POR
AG2R LA MONDIALE (ALM) FRA BARDET Romain FRA CHEREL Mikael FRA GASTAUER Ben LUX GRETSCH Patrick GER PERAUD Jean-Christophe FRA VAN SUMMEREN Johan BEL VUILLERMOZ Alexis FRA
BMC RACING (BMC) USA CARUSO Damiano ITA DENNIS Rohan AUS MOINARD Amaël FRA OSS Daniel ITA QUINZIATO Manuel ITA SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel ESP SCHÄR Michael SUI VAN AVERMAET Greg BEL VAN GARDEREN Tejay USA
BORA-ARGON 18 (BOA) GER KONRAD Patrick AUT BARTA Jan CZE BENNETT Sam IRL BUCHMANN Emanuel GER DEMPSTER Zakkari AUS HUZARSKI Bartosz POL BENEDETTI Cesare ITA NERZ Dominik GER PIMENTA COSTA MENDES José Joao POR SALERNO Cristiano ITA SCHILLINGER Andreas GER THURAU Bjorn GER VOSS Paul GER
BRETAGNE-SECHE ENVIRONNEMENT (BSE) FRA BRUN Frédéric FRA DELAPLACE Anthony FRA FEDRIGO Pierrick FRA FEILLU Brice FRA FONSECA Armindo FRA GERARD Arnaud FRA GUILLOU Florian FRA PERICHON Pierre-Luc FRA SEPULVEDA Eduardo ARG VACHON Florian FRA
COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CREDITS (COF) FRA BOUHANNI Nacer FRA NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel ESP
ETIXX - QUICK STEP (EQS) BEL RENSHAW Mark AUS ALAPHILIPPE Julian FRA GOLAS Michal POL KWIATKOWSKI Michal POL MAES Nikolas BEL MARTIN Tony GER CAVENDISH Mark GBR SABATINI Fabio ITA SERRY Pieter BEL STYBAR Zdenek CZE TRENTIN Matteo ITA URAN URAN Rigoberto COL VERMOTE Julien BEL
EUROPCAR (EUC) FRA COQUARD Bryan FRA GAUTIER Cyril FRA ROLLAND Pierre FRA SICARD Romain FRA VOECKLER Thomas FRA
FDJ (FDJ) FRA MORABITO Steve SUI BONNET William FRA DELAGE Mickael FRA DEMARE Arnaud FRA GENIEZ Alexandre FRA LADAGNOUS Matthieu FRA CHAVANEL Sébastien FRA PINOT Thibaut FRA ROUX Anthony FRA ROY Jérémy FRA VAUGRENARD Benoît FRA VICHOT Arthur FRA
IAM CYCLING (IAM) SUI BRANDLE Matthias AUT CHAVANEL Sylvain FRA ELMIGER Martin SUI FRANK Mathias SUI PANTANO Jarlinson COL REYNES MIMO Vicente ESP WYSS Marcel SUI
KATUSHA (KAT) RUS CARUSO Giampaolo ITA KRISTOFF Alexander NOR LOSADA ALGUACIL Alberto ESP MACHADO Tiago POR PAOLINI Luca ITA RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin ESP
ASTANA (AST) KAZ BOOM Lars NED FUGLSANG Jakob DEN GRIVKO Andriy UKR NIBALI Vincenzo ITA SCARPONI Michele ITA WESTRA Lieuwe NED
LOTTO SOUDAL (LTS) BEL GALLOPIN Tony FRA GREIPEL André GER HANSEN Adam AUS VANENDERT Jelle BEL WELLENS Tim BEL
MOVISTAR (MOV) ESP IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka ESP ANACONA GOMEZ Winner COL CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan ESP ERVITI OLLO Imanol ESP GADRET John FRA HERRADA LOPEZ José ESP CAPECCHI Eros ITA MALORI Adriano ITA QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander COL ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin ESP SUTHERLAND Rory AUS VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro ESP VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco José ESP
MTN - QHUBEKA (MTN) RSA JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt RSA BERHANE Natnael ERI CUMMINGS Stephen GBR FARRAR Tyler USA JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques RSA BOASSON HAGEN Edvald NOR KUDUS GHEBREMEDHIN Merhawi ERI MEINTJES Louis RSA PAUWELS Serge BEL REGUIGUI Youcef ALG TEKLEHAIMANOT Daniel ERI
ORICA GreenEDGE (OGE) AUS DURBRIDGE Luke AUS GERRANS Simon AUS HAYMAN Mathew AUS KEUKELEIRE Jens BEL MATTHEWS Michael AUS TUFT Svein CAN YATES Adam GBR YATES Simon GBR
SKY (SKY) GBR FROOME Christopher GBR HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis COL KONIG Leopold CZE NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel ESP POELS Wouter NED PORTE Richie AUS ROCHE Nicolas IRL THOMAS Geraint GBR
CANNONDALE - GARMIN (TCG) USA CARDOSO Andre Fernando S. Martins POR HESJEDAL Ryder CAN LANGEVELD Sebastian NED MARTIN Daniel IRL TALANSKY Andrew USA VAN BAARLE Dylan NED
TINKOFF - SAXO (TCS) RUS BASSO Ivan ITA BENNATI Daniele ITA CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto ESP KISERLOVSKI Robert CRO KREUZIGER Roman CZE MAJKA Rafal POL ROGERS Michael AUS SAGAN Peter SVK
TREK FACTORY RACING (TFR) USA ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David COL CANCELLARA Fabian SUI DEVOLDER Stijn BEL JUNGELS Bob LUX MOLLEMA Bauke NED SCHLECK Frank LUX STUYVEN Jasper BEL ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar ESP
GIANT - ALPECIN (TGA) GER FRÖHLINGER Johannes GER BARGUIL Warren FRA DE BACKER Bert BEL DE KORT Koen NED DEGENKOLB John GER DUMOULIN Tom NED CURVERS Roy NED GESCHKE Simon GER KITTEL Marcel GER PREIDLER Georg AUT SINKELDAM Ramon NED TIMMER Albert NED
LOTTO NL - JUMBO (TLJ) NED GESINK Robert NED KELDERMAN Wilco NED KRUIJSWIJK Steven NED LEEZER Thomas NED MARTENS Paul GER TANKINK Bram NED TEN DAM Laurens NED VAN EMDEN Jos NED VANMARCKE Sep BEL
General Info for new followers: GC stands for general classification and refers to riders who are competing to win the overall tour. Generally too be a good GC rider one must be a respectable individual time trialist (a solo ride against the clock), as well as someone with very good power to weight ratio, as that determines how fast one climbs. Almost every bike tour features many summit finishes, meaning that the last climb of a summit finish is a very important opportunity to gain time on rivals.
For those unfamiliar, in a time trial, which tends to be one flatter routes, bigger guys that put out more raw power (watts) are generally favored over lighter riders that might have better power/weight (w/kg) ratio. The reason for is that weight is a small penalty on flat ground, with the big player being air resistance. At typical time trial speeds, well over 90% of your power is spent overcoming air resistance. With good position on the bike, a riders drag coefficient does not become significantly larger even if the rider is a little bigger...which means that with similar amounts of drag the rider putting out more raw power will go faster.
For this edition of the tour there are four major contenders for the overall win: Chris Froome (Sky), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff Saxo), and Nairo Quintana (Movistar).
Chris Froome - 2013 TdF champion. The strongest of all the GC riders at time trialing as he is the largest rider at around 69kg. Like all GC riders, Froome is a very good climber, though he tends to be a little more of a diesel (ride at a consistent pace) climber than a dynamic attack/recover pure climber. The downside for Froome is that there is only one individual time trial (ITT) and it's fairly short at just under 14km. There is a team time trial (TTT) later on that is a little lengthier, but that will depend on the overall strength of the team in addition to Froome's strength. Sky is a pretty strong team at ITT, but so are most of the other GC riders teams.
Froome's form coming into June had been abysmal. He had been fighting some illness and had generally performed poorly in every race he had been in, bad enough that another rider from Sky, Richie Porte, had frequently been taking over the team lead from Froome. Fortunately Froome looked much better in his Tour prep ride, the Criterium du Dauphine, and his form is trending upward.
The other big question for Froome is if he can avoid crashes and mishaps. Amongst the four main contenders, Froome is the one most would consider the weakest bike handler and most nervy. With 8 days before the mountains with lots of high speed sprint stages, cobbles, and likely rain there is definitely some concern for Froome making it to the TTT and mountains intact.
Nairo Quintana - The small Columbian, around 58kg, is arguably the best pure climber in the field. Especially given his size he isn't terrible at the time trial, but I would expect him to concede some time to the other GC guys during the opening ITT. When it comes to the TTT Movistar is a team made up primarily of climbers, lacking guys that are big TT engines...but with that in mind Movistar has been doing very nicely at the TTT discipline in events leading up to the TdF. If Movistar can produce on the big stage, that will leave Quintana in a VERY good position heading into the mountains. Along with Contador an in form Quintana is likely the biggest climbing threat.
Quintana's results leading into the TdF have been interesting, with some very good results and dominant victories mixed in with some weaker rides. He just returned from a stint at altitude in Columbia and looked good at the Route de Sud a few days ago, easily following Contadors attacks.
Alberto Contador - The spanish climber would, under normal circumstances, be the odds on favorite. He is a two time TdF champion and 7 time grand tour winner. An excellent, explosive climber and a fairly good time trialist his palmares and experience are unmatched. However, these are not normal circumstances. Contador is attempting something very unique, which is to try and win the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France in the same year. He was successful in winning the Giro, but will have only had 5 weeks to recover and try to build back form to be prepared for the tour. Many consider this double impossible, and it will certainly be difficult, but if anybody can do it Contador would be the pick.
Contador's form coming in should be good. He is coming off winning the Giro, and lucked good in the Route de Sud a few days ago. This means that Contador will likely be in reasonable form starting the tour. The big question mark is whether he can hold up over the last 9 days. Racing hard for 5+ hours a day for 45 days out of 75 is a pretty big ask. If he does hold up I expect Contador will be your winner, but he'll need his team to be strong as well, helping to control breaks and keeping the pace high to prevent crazy attacks from other GC riders who may attempt to make the climbs especially difficult in order to capitalize on the extra fatigue in his legs.
Vincenzo Nibali - Controversy is the probably the best word to use when it comes to Nibali. His team, Astana, has had several riders sanctioned for doping infractions and was on the verge of losing it's world tour license. Ultimately UCI decided to allow Astana to retain their license and Nibali is able to ride the tour. Vincenzo comes in as the defending champion, having dominated the Tour last year with a 7:00+ victory. It does come with an asterisk though as Quintana did not race the Tour last year and both Froome and Contador crashed out before the mountains. In other words, Vincenzo bashed up on competition that is a tier down from the best. Nevertheless, he looked VERY good last year and is a strong climber and reasonable time trialist. Unique to Vincenzo is his bike handling and descending ability, stemming from his mountain bike background. Vincenzo is one of the two or three best downhillers in the peleton and has a killer instinct for being able to use downhill or other questionable sections of road (cobbles, etc.) to create seperation.
Coming in, Nibali had been....well let's just say medicore would be putting it nicely. That said, Nibali looked generally better a week ago at the Criterium du Dauphine. On the second hilly stage he got into an allstar breakaway and road extremely well on the climbs that day, easily distancing all of his breakaway companions. On the final day of climbing he looked shakier, but it's unclear whether he was going for it, or just using it as training. Even if that was all he had, it was a very hard day in the breakway the day before and Nibali does not like being in peak shape at the Dauphine.
The real question surrounding Nibali is who shows up. Historically, Nibali has been a very good climber, but not quite as good as the other three GC guys. The Nibali of 2014 probably was as good as any of them. If Nibali of 2014 shows up, I'd pick him to win this years edition as well.
General Info for new followers: GC stands for general classification and refers to riders who are competing to win the overall tour. Generally too be a good GC rider one must be a respectable individual time trialist (a solo ride against the clock), as well as someone with very good power to weight ratio, as that determines how fast one climbs. Almost every bike tour features many summit finishes, meaning that the last climb of a summit finish is a very important opportunity to gain time on rivals.
For those unfamiliar, in a time trial, which tends to be one flatter routes, bigger guys that put out more raw power (watts) are generally favored over lighter riders that might have better power/weight (w/kg) ratio. The reason for is that weight is a small penalty on flat ground, with the big player being air resistance. At typical time trial speeds, well over 90% of your power is spent overcoming air resistance. With good position on the bike, a riders drag coefficient does not become significantly larger even if the rider is a little bigger...which means that with similar amounts of drag the rider putting out more raw power will go faster.
For this edition of the tour there are four major contenders for the overall win: Chris Froome (Sky), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff Saxo), and Nairo Quintana (Movistar).
Chris Froome - 2013 TdF champion. The strongest of all the GC riders at time trialing as he is the largest rider at around 69kg. Like all GC riders, Froome is a very good climber, though he tends to be a little more of a diesel (ride at a consistent pace) climber than a dynamic attack/recover pure climber. The downside for Froome is that there is only one individual time trial (ITT) and it's fairly short at just under 14km. There is a team time trial (TTT) later on that is a little lengthier, but that will depend on the overall strength of the team in addition to Froome's strength. Sky is a pretty strong team at ITT, but so are most of the other GC riders teams.
Froome's form coming into June had been abysmal. He had been fighting some illness and had generally performed poorly in every race he had been in, bad enough that another rider from Sky, Richie Porte, had frequently been taking over the team lead from Froome. Fortunately Froome looked much better in his Tour prep ride, the Criterium du Dauphine, and his form is trending upward.
The other big question for Froome is if he can avoid crashes and mishaps. Amongst the four main contenders, Froome is the one most would consider the weakest bike handler and most nervy. With 8 days before the mountains with lots of high speed sprint stages, cobbles, and likely rain there is definitely some concern for Froome making it to the TTT and mountains intact.
Nairo Quintana - The small Columbian, around 58kg, is arguably the best pure climber in the field. Especially given his size he isn't terrible at the time trial, but I would expect him to concede some time to the other GC guys during the opening ITT. When it comes to the TTT Movistar is a team made up primarily of climbers, lacking guys that are big TT engines...but with that in mind Movistar has been doing very nicely at the TTT discipline in events leading up to the TdF. If Movistar can produce on the big stage, that will leave Quintana in a VERY good position heading into the mountains. Along with Contador an in form Quintana is likely the biggest climbing threat.
Quintana's results leading into the TdF have been interesting, with some very good results and dominant victories mixed in with some weaker rides. He just returned from a stint at altitude in Columbia and looked good at the Route de Sud a few days ago, easily following Contadors attacks.
Alberto Contador - The spanish climber would, under normal circumstances, be the odds on favorite. He is a two time TdF champion and 7 time grand tour winner. An excellent, explosive climber and a fairly good time trialist his palmares and experience are unmatched. However, these are not normal circumstances. Contador is attempting something very unique, which is to try and win the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France in the same year. He was successful in winning the Giro, but will have only had 5 weeks to recover and try to build back form to be prepared for the tour. Many consider this double impossible, and it will certainly be difficult, but if anybody can do it Contador would be the pick.
Contador's form coming in should be good. He is coming off winning the Giro, and lucked good in the Route de Sud a few days ago. This means that Contador will likely be in reasonable form starting the tour. The big question mark is whether he can hold up over the last 9 days. Racing hard for 5+ hours a day for 45 days out of 75 is a pretty big ask. If he does hold up I expect Contador will be your winner, but he'll need his team to be strong as well, helping to control breaks and keeping the pace high to prevent crazy attacks from other GC riders who may attempt to make the climbs especially difficult in order to capitalize on the extra fatigue in his legs.
Vincenzo Nibali - Controversy is the probably the best word to use when it comes to Nibali. His team, Astana, has had several riders sanctioned for doping infractions and was on the verge of losing it's world tour license. Ultimately UCI decided to allow Astana to retain their license and Nibali is able to ride the tour. Vincenzo comes in as the defending champion, having dominated the Tour last year with a 7:00+ victory. It does come with an asterisk though as Quintana did not race the Tour last year and both Froome and Contador crashed out before the mountains. In other words, Vincenzo bashed up on competition that is a tier down from the best. Nevertheless, he looked VERY good last year and is a strong climber and reasonable time trialist. Unique to Vincenzo is his bike handling and descending ability, stemming from his mountain bike background. Vincenzo is one of the two or three best downhillers in the peleton and has a killer instinct for being able to use downhill or other questionable sections of road (cobbles, etc.) to create seperation.
Coming in, Nibali had been....well let's just say medicore would be putting it nicely. That said, Nibali looked generally better a week ago at the Criterium du Dauphine. On the second hilly stage he got into an allstar breakaway and road extremely well on the climbs that day, easily distancing all of his breakaway companions. On the final day of climbing he looked shakier, but it's unclear whether he was going for it, or just using it as training. Even if that was all he had, it was a very hard day in the breakway the day before and Nibali does not like being in peak shape at the Dauphine.
The real question surrounding Nibali is who shows up. Historically, Nibali has been a very good climber, but not quite as good as the other three GC guys. The Nibali of 2014 probably was as good as any of them. If Nibali of 2014 shows up, I'd pick him to win this years edition as well.
1. Nairo Quintana 2. Chris Froome 3. Alberto Contador 4. Vincenzo Nibali
It's a really difficult call. My gut says that Froome won't be winning this year, I don't think he'll do enough damage to the other riders at the short TT, and with such an emphasis on mountain stages, with some shorter punchier climbs I see it being hard for Froome. All three of the other riders have questions about form to be answered, but Quintana has looked generally good, and given the climbing nature of this years tour I'm going to pick him as my top spot, given that I do think Contador will crack at least once in the final week and concede time...and I have too many questions about Nibalis form and ability to climb against the other big four to pick him.
On June 25 2015 03:39 Twisted wrote: Will visit Utrecht on 4th of July to watch the Grand Départ!
#jealous
On June 25 2015 01:30 MassHysteria wrote: Nice info L_Master.
I just realized Tony Martin is on a team with Cavendish again. <3. Really excited for these sprint finishes too.
Thanks! And yea he sure is. Nice guy to have on your team for helping to control the field and bring back breaks. I'm interested to see if Doumolin can give Martin a run for his money on opening day at all. Probably not, but it does add some intrigue.
I'll be doing some previews in the upcoming week for the green jersey, sprints, and maybe polka dot jersey as well.
Looking forward to this year Tour, hopefully it won't have a dominating team such as Astana in the Giro. Some other riders also deserve some attention such as Tejay, Pinot, Rodriguez, Rui Costa, Mollema just to name a few, who are unlikely to make it top 3 but can definitely be surprises and shake up the race a bit.
My bet for the top 3 would be: 1. Quintana 2. Contador 3. Froome
Link ProcyclingStats has pretty much all the info you can hope to find about the race, very good site for anyone who follows cycling.
Quintana is probably going to lose too much time on the TTT, the ITT, and the cobbles. If he can reach week 3 without being too much down he can definitely win though. I think it is going to be between Froome (provided he doesn't do his usual crash and/or has an off-day like he sometimes does) and Nibali. My heart hopes for Contador due to the double GC-winner story.
On June 25 2015 06:28 Ghostcom wrote: Quintana is probably going to lose too much time on the TTT, the ITT, and the cobbles. If he can reach week 3 without being too much down he can definitely win though. I think it is going to be between Froome (provided he doesn't do his usual crash and/or has an off-day like he sometimes does) and Nibali. My heart hopes for Contador due to the double GC-winner story.
I'd put in Tejay for a potential 5th spot as well. He is best at diesling climbs, and many TdF climbs set up nicely for that sort of rider. He's got a strong team and good ITT as well.
The ITT will be tougher for Quintana, but fortunately it isn't very long and it's not as if Quintana is garbage against the clock. I'd be pretty suprised is he lost more than 20-30s on opening day. As for the TTT...normally I'd agree with you, but Movistar has been pretty darn sharp in that discipline so far this season. The TTT route is pretty hilly too, which will further suit Movistars climbing heavy team.
I don't doubt Quintana will be down a little time heading into the mountains, but I given the short ITT and Movistars TTT prowess so far I don't think Quintana will be all that far down.
Although he insists cobbles aren't a problem, if he does have a bad cobble day that could destroy his chances.
I thought I was going to be hipster predicting Quintana to win it all but I see you guys are way ahead of me. I think a monster third week propels him to victory making up the time lost in the ITT.
My heart picks Contador always because of his never say die attitude and completely unpredictable racing style. I think he is cooked after a harder than expected Giro, though. Still see him getting second or third.
Froome is just...no. I hate watching Froome ride and I hate his style. His constant power meter watching and insistence on riding his own pace is boring. Not to mention seated 100mph attacks are the worst. Really hoping he doesn't win. Second or third is my prediction.
I think Nibali gets exposed for a distant fourth. He is a clear cut below the other three in my mind.
I don't much pay attention to the green or polka dot jerseys. Really wish they would rework the scoring to make it more interesting. Is Kittel smoking everyone in sprints like he did last year?
Not to mention so many good french men... Pinot, Peraud, Rolland, Voeckler, Chavanel, Roy.
And go Peter Sagan! Slovakia pride!
No, we aren't. The winner will come from those four.
Now, if you want to talk about podium spots there is a good chance that at least one, if not two of those guys will either crash or have a bad tour. Which brings into the picture guys like Tejay, Pinot, Bardet, Valverde, Hejsedal, possibly Mollema, etc.
I don't know why you mention a guy like Roy. He has no results, nothing to indicate he could be a GC contender, and even more crucially he is on FDJ with Pinot and will be riding support for him...
I would say the Giro guys also are a safe bet for no podium save Contador. Not only is that a crazy amount of racing to ask for in 10 weeks, but this particular Giro was exceptionally demanding. If Hejsedal, Kruijswijk or Uran make the podium I owe you $10.
On June 25 2015 11:43 FiWiFaKi wrote: edit2: And too bad no Aru, seriously, watching the Giro - he was by far and far the best rider there.
Completely disagree on Aru. He looked good on a couple of stages late in the week, but was also really bad at other key moments. He did not have a good TT. He performed poorly on the Mortirolo, starting with over a minute lead on Contador at the base of the Mortirolo due to a mechanical and Astana pace driving combo, and lost several minutes to Contador by the end of the day.
For sure Aru is a dangerous up and coming GC man to watch. He absolutely was not the best rider there when it comes to the complete picture.
On June 25 2015 11:43 petered wrote: Froome is just...no. I hate watching Froome ride and I hate his style. His constant power meter watching and insistence on riding his own pace is boring. Not to mention seated 100mph attacks are the worst. Really hoping he doesn't win. Second or third is my prediction.
I'll give you the seated attacks and power meter watching being a little boring. It's definitely cooler when guys get out of the saddle and attack away. While it's boring for viewership, I do have respect for Froome for "getting it". Attacking once the gradient gets above about 9% is not smart. At 20kph the draft benefits might be 2%. Maybe. Even if you are able to attack and not cede 6-8W to the guy on your wheel, you easily lose that from what attacking takes out of you. Ultimately attacks just result in less net power and a slower overall climb.
Now, once the climb starts to get down around or below 7%...attack away.
On June 25 2015 11:43 petered wrote: I think Nibali gets exposed for a distant fourth. He is a clear cut below the other three in my mind.
Depends which Nibali shows up. 2014 TdF Nibali was not a clear cut below the other three. Yes, he faced a watered down field after Froome and Contador crashed out. However, his climbing was still exceptional. On several climbs, such as Hautacam, guys like LtD rode just shy of 400W (5.75 w/kg) and Nibali won by several minutes. For Nibali you're looking at about 420W to ride 2:00 faster, which puts him around 6.3 w/kg for a 35 minute climb at the end of a long stage nearing the end of the tour.
Bottom line, that's competitive with anyone. Big question is whether 2014 Nibali is still around. Hard to tell if he was just training at the Dauphine, or just won't quite have it. If he does, his bike handling and tactics are an order of magnitude above the other GC guys, making him very dangerous if his climbing prowess is in the ballpark like it was in 2014.
On June 25 2015 11:43 petered wrote: I don't much pay attention to the green or polka dot jerseys. Really wish they would rework the scoring to make it more interesting. Is Kittel smoking everyone in sprints like he did last year?
Green Jersey has been kind of a no brainer because Sagan is so fucking ridiculous. He just sucks up all the points nobody else can get.
Polka dot jersey is pretty silly in my opinion. It's all about getting into breakaways and either being a slightly better climber or slightly better sprinter from a bunch than everyone else. Climbing jersey really should be something like sum of times on all categorized or target climbs, with possible bonus seconds for 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
Kittel has definitely not been dominating the sprints, but I think it's been due to injury/health issues. No word yet on what how is form is. Cavendish has been excellent all season. The other usual suspects like Kristoff and Greipel have looked good. Degenkolb has been very good in punchy finishes and classics.
On June 25 2015 12:42 petered wrote: lol hesjedal second. Dem canadians gotta stick together I guess.
Wait Kruijswijk third? Googling him and...he got 7th in the giro. Now I know you are trolling.
Actually Kruijswijk rode extremely well. He was a little off early on, but was riding right up there with Contador, Aru, etc. through week two and three. Not only that, he was frequently helping take big pulls or closing down gaps in attacks.
I suspect that he will also be too fatigued to be a top 5 or even top 10 in TdF, but Kruijswijk really did ride a very nice last 2 weeks of the Giro.
What Nibali actually has fans? o.O lol how that came to happen? ^^ jk jk.
Great OP, will sure post here during the Tour. Thanks
Regarding the lists above, unless Contador was saving a lot in his Giro run, he has zero chance in the Tour. Nibali is still a wildcard, a very week season so far casts doubts around his form this year, even with a godly (and suspicious) Astana behind. Nevertheless, last year he was also terrible until the Tour and then showed strength there (albeit against a poor field without Froome, Quintana and Contador).
Froome it really depends if he is past his respiratory problems or not. Quintana is probably the strongest contender to Froome's "natural" ability, probably a safer bet on the climbs if Froome is not 100% healthy. Yet ITT and TTT will put Quintana at a disadvantage.
Tejay is a wild card for me. There is no chance he will win obviously, but he could fight for a podium finish if he keeps his Dauphine form. The problem is, that Dauphine performance looked more like Tejay peaked a little too soon and not a sign of great improvement. Lets hope I'm wrong
If all is according to plan, we will have Froome and Quintana battle for first, Nibali a close third and then Contador, Tejay, Valverde, Pinot, Rodriguez, Kwiatek, Rui Costa, Bardet and maybe Talansky battling for the following spots in top10.
Hesjedal never been the same since the Giro win, Mollema is too inconsistent, and the others actually depend. If injury or bad planning affect any of the favourites, the rest of the top10 may change, but those are the main contenders for GC spots after the big3 (4 with Contador, although with the Giro already on his legs to me he is out of the Tour, unless, as stated, he saved a lot in the Giro).
With every team's startlist confirmed now what team do you guys think is the strongest? For me it has to be Sky, everyone there seems to be on top of their game with the only exception being Roche (I still believe Porte will be really strong and will have put the giro disappointment behind him). However each of the main contender's teams look pretty good and well rounded, with Movistar having what seems to me the strongest TTT line-up if only Quintana can keep up with his mates.
I do think Porte will be good, but we won't really see that too much as he will be riding in support of Froome I imagine. He was the only one not on the Giro long enough to not be a little under form there at the TdF.
Marcel Kittel being left off the team for Giant-Alpecin is a shock. He is not happy with the decision as there have been at least hints of early contract termination.
Teamwise, we know Astana will be a very strong team overall. Same with Tinkoff-Saxo. Sky as you mentioned looks great, all of their riders have indeed been very solid. Movistar always has strong climbers, but isn't necessarily a team with massive horsepower on the flats, and I can't say I agree with Movistar having the strongest TTT lineup. I think Etixx, BMC, and then maybe Sky/Orica have something to say about that.
On June 30 2015 12:02 L_Master wrote: I do think Porte will be good, but we won't really see that too much as he will be riding in support of Froome I imagine. He was the only one not on the Giro long enough to not be a little under form there at the TdF.
Marcel Kittel being left off the team for Giant-Alpecin is a shock. He is not happy with the decision as there have been at least hints of early contract termination.
Teamwise, we know Astana will be a very strong team overall. Same with Tinkoff-Saxo. Sky as you mentioned looks great, all of their riders have indeed been very solid. Movistar always has strong climbers, but isn't necessarily a team with massive horsepower on the flats, and I can't say I agree with Movistar having the strongest TTT lineup. I think Etixx, BMC, and then maybe Sky/Orica have something to say about that.
Regarding Kittel why was that a shock? He has been ill the whole season, has almost no race days to his name this year. It would be a shock if he was in the squad honestly.
Regarding TTT, I think the other poster's assessment is based on the fact they take Castroviejo, Dowsett and Malori, 3 time trialists (is that a word? ^^).
Sky is full of pure climbers, yes Froome, Porte and G can do their part on the TTT but surprisingly, when it comes to team efforts they always seem to come short.
Etixx and BMC are always very strong on TTT, but I believe he was referring to teams with actual contenders (EDIT: Yeah BMC has Tejay and Etixx has Uran, but baring a significant improvement from Tejay, none of them is an actual contender, I still think Tejay just peaked too soon).
BTW, any of you people play fantasy leagues for cycling? It could be fun having a TL mini league on velogames.