Giro d' Italia - May 6 to May 29
2016 Giro d' Italia
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
Nibali v Landa v Uran v Valverde v Dumoulin v Zakirin Really hard to know what to expect. Uran hasn't done much. Neither have Doumalin or Nibali. Zakirin has had some good races, but it's yet to see if he is ready to play for overal GC. Valverde has probably looked the best of anyone. He could well be the favorite if Nibali doesn't show up on the line with form. Landa I don't know what to expect. He has strong rides, but I don't really get the feeling he is ready to win yet, but new team, new training, so maybe he will show up looking better than he ever has before. I think Nibali cand Dumoulin should be interesting to watch and see if they show up. Nibali hasn't looked good, but he has had unimpressive build ups before and then looked good at the key event. Dumoulin might be more focused on TT this year, given it's an Olympic one, but the hasn't really looked spectacular anywhere. ------------------------------------------------ On the sprint side we have two of the biggest names in Kittel and Greipel. Kittel has had some moments this year, but seems to be lacking some fitness and not quite up to his 2014 sprint form yet either. Greipel has had a slow start, but is coming off an absolutely dominant TdF last year and has had plenty of time to get some more good training in. Also looking forward to see how the aero king Caleb Ewan does. He makes Cav look like a parachute. Probably doesn't have what it takes to hang with the big 2, but he'll have his chances and should be competitive on some stages that are a little difficult of Kittel and Greipel. | ||
TzaTzers
United States589 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 06 2016 18:05 TzaTzers wrote: Is there a reason why Nairo Quintana hasn't returned to the Giro dItalia or is he focusing on the Tour de France? The latter. It's pretty much impossible to contest Giro and be competetive for the Tour as well, and then with this being an Olympic year on a climb heavy course that's a major objective for many of the GC guys. | ||
Saechiis
Netherlands4989 Posts
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darthfoley
United States7999 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 07 2016 03:51 darthfoley wrote: Any online streams? Or will i have to purchase a pass to watch online, like I do for the TDF? There are usually streams that can be found here: Steephill. Just scroll down to the bottom and there are usually a bunch of steams listed. Never guarantees about quality or language, but as a general rule of thumb there are decent broadcasts available. On May 07 2016 03:15 Saechiis wrote: Giro coming to Nijmegen tomorrow where I live I'm am so, so, so, very jealous! Enjoy | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
I'd say no real major surprises or shake ups here, and all the main players bunched within 20s. Now to just watch for splits in the peleton and see if Kittel can work his way into pink. Definitely a reasonable possibility given he is only 11s back with 32 bonus seconds on the line over the next 2 days. | ||
TzaTzers
United States589 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Stage2 results don't want to spoil] + Wooooo! Marcel making it look super easy in the sprint and what happened to Greipel? | ||
Gjhc
Portugal161 Posts
Let's wait and see, this Giro has everything to be a great race. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 08 2016 17:55 Gjhc wrote: I expect the big contenders to be Nibali, Valverde and Landa. Kruijswijk is my bet for an upset podium if he doesn't lose over 8min on a stage like he did in the first week last year. Others would be a surprise since Dumoulin will have a hard time in Italian mountains which are way bigger and more aggressive than spanish ones, Uran somehow always seems to be a few steps behind other leaders, Zakarin just hasn't proved yet to have consistency for 3 week races (although he can be with the very best quite often and even beat them), Hesjedal, Majka and Chaves and a few others can get a stage or 2 and finish top10 but can't see them on the podium. Let's wait and see, this Giro has everything to be a great race. Absolutely. These are almost exactly my thoughts. I don't think Kruijswijk is quite on the level of Valverde, Landa, and Nibali...but he was quite impressive over the last week and a half at the Giro last year. After all that work last year and not getting a stage win out of it I would LOVE to see him make the podium or better this year, but he'll need his absolute best and like you said, no mistakes. My picks are going to be: 1) Valverde - Just got this feeling. He went great in the TT, even if it was a shorter one, and says his focus has been on this. Something tells me Valverde is going to be in the shape of his life....er, last 6 years. 2) Nibali - Looks good in opening TT and while he looked pretty mediocre in everything coming up to the Giro TT suggests he has some form and Nibali routinely looks weak outside the GTs 3) Landa - I think he'll race well, but probably not well enough to make up for his TT that still seems to be lacking. If he has a good flat TT I think he contends for pink. Majka is the other somewhat wildcard. I think his TT is a serious trouble spot and he isn't used to the style of riding to not make any mistakes...but I think his climbing ability is on par with anyone else here. He's won KoM at the Tour before and like 3 wins at the tour alone on climb heavy stages when turned loose from serving Contador, not to mention a Vuelta podium. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
Kittel looks to be on pretty damn good form, but if he doesn't make it might open things up for some of the other fast men, or possible opportunities for a strong break. | ||
FiWiFaKi
Canada9858 Posts
Stage 4 and 5 - I don't expect anything to happen here, a 350m elevation change in 6km, with still 50km ahead of relative flatness isn't enough for anyone to breakaway. Same with stage 5, gradual elevation changes with with 40km of flat road ahead of a bunch sprint. Stage 6 will be the first interesting stage, though I don't think it's a good time to strike just yet if you're a top GC contender. I would take it easy, though there's a few that will surely go pretty hard in hopes of getting the maglia rosa, don't expect a Chris Froome stage 10 of TdF2015 though. Stage 7 - I dunno, at first sight it should be a bunch sprint, as was last time, but just maybe a group can get a nice lead on the climb and win it on the descent. I think it's an all-around good stage for breakaways though. Stage 8 - Wee, 6km on dirt roads. Good stage for a group of 3-5 strong riders to break away on the climb and descend to victory. Stage 9 - Very long TT, this is the first stage that will probably eliminate several top GC contenders. Easy to lose 2-4 minutes on this stage if you aren't careful. Stage 10 - No idea what to expect here, it's kind of an easy mountain stage, first Cat 1 climb and a mountain finish, exciting! I think after today, everyone who ends up finishing in the top 5 will be in the top 10. Lots of cool stages that come afterwards, 13, 14, 16, 19, 20 are the four tough mountain stages, with 15 being a neat uphill TT. Stage 20 especially is beautiful, that will be a fun one. I think I'll really get into the Giro once we're at Stage 13, no Peter Sagan to cheer for in the meantime | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
Shouldn't be a serious shakeup though. If anyone loses a chunk of time here that will have them extremely concerned about their overall GC ambitious. Definitely possible for some small gaps, but anything above like 10s would be pretty surprising. | ||
Gjhc
Portugal161 Posts
Kinda surprised to see some of big names just ignoring Dumoulin's attack. Although I still have many doubts about his ability to win a Grand Tour, it's these small wins here and there plus his TT skills that allow him to have the chance to be there on the top of the GC and I think that the other teams should have already known that and not give him these chances. Disappointment of the day goes to Nibali. You don't say you are going to take back some secs lost and then lose even more this way. A bit overconfident or just a bad day? | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 13 2016 01:20 Gjhc wrote: Really enjoy watching riders like Wellens getting these type of wins, its a mix of guts, strength and cunning. Kinda surprised to see some of big names just ignoring Dumoulin's attack. Although I still have many doubts about his ability to win a Grand Tour, it's these small wins here and there plus his TT skills that allow him to have the chance to be there on the top of the GC and I think that the other teams should have already known that and not give him these chances. Disappointment of the day goes to Nibali. You don't say you are going to take back some secs lost and then lose even more this way. A bit overconfident or just a bad day? Yea, always nice when a breakaway quality ride gets the win, even if today it was a little bit handed to them. I agree for Wellens on guts and strength, but I'm not as sure about cunning. He just seems to attack, attack, attack and I think he misses opportunities by not being smart about when he attacks. As he learns and gets better I think he will be a very good breakaway rider. He certainly has the guts and aggression for it. As far as Dumoulin goes, I'm not as sure I have doubts about his ability to win a grand tour. I have doubts about his ability to win the Giro in 2016', but you don't get that close to winning the Vuelta without having the ability. That's also considering that right now he is still very much a TT focused guy, Dumoulin minus 2-4kg becomes a very legitimate grand tour threat if he decides to go that route. I should be clear that I don't see him as a TdF type contender, as I really don't think he can beat guys like a fresh Froome or Quintana. Fortunately, depending on the grand tours, you don't always have to race those guys as we can see this year in the Giro and last year in the Vuelta. Dumoulin can hang in the mountains, until things get really steep, as has a good TT. As an addition plus the guy is very punchy on sprints or on short uphill finishes which enables him to gain small bonus seconds or time gaps. Probably he always loses time in the mountains, but I think he can limit those losses and pick up sufficient TT gains and little advantages to win in the future. For this year, I think he will ultimately struggle in the mountains, especially if what he has said about focusing on the olympics TT is true. It likely means a slightly larger weight, and he has said he did not altitude training, which could cost him towards the tops of some of the bigger climbs. A lot will depend on just what the 40km TT brings. If he gets 3-5 minutes there over close guys, then he is absolutely in the picture. Nibali, not sure. He always says shit but I think he says stuff just to make people wonder. I think in his case his first attack didn't stick, and then Dumoulin went right over the top of him and then the reduced group picked up the pace putting Nibali in the "I need to hammer right after attacking just to stay on" mode, and he was unable to recover to do the last two minutes at 7.5 w/kg w/surges as needed. Not sure why people didn't follow Dumoulin. I have to think either they couldn't, or were just too worried about each other and didn't want to be the one dragging other guys back up to Dumoulin, who went on a flatter section before the climb got steep again, meaning whoever does the 600+ watt pull is dragging everyone else along at 400w cruising. If Dumoulin gets a good gap after stage 9, I don't think we will see the same thing happen regardless of the situation. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
Nice riding by Griepel though to come through for the win, too bad it looks like we won't ever get a good head to head battle from there at the Giro this year | ||
Gjhc
Portugal161 Posts
Poor Dumoulin, although I bashed a bit on him I don't think anyone expected this to happen. Losing his chances of a good GC and being pushed to the limit the day before of his most anticipated stage is pretty though, wonder if he'll recover for tomorrow. Valverde and Movistar were very good today and despite not getting time on anyone, only 3secs to Nibali Pozzovivo Majka and Uran, he seemed to be the strongest out there, doing like 80% of the pulling. Kruijswijk, Nibali and Chaves looked very strong as well while Landa and Majka seemed a bit shakier. Tomorrow will be the first major test of the Giro, any ideas of who will win and which of the contenders will get the most time on the others? | ||
DaCruise
Denmark2457 Posts
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palexhur
Colombia730 Posts
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KobraKay
Portugal4015 Posts
Kruijswijk seems to finally get back into proper form display in his first year (iirc). Still my bet was on Nibali (my main contender on my velogames team) and I'm standing behind him in support. Let's go nibs! (must be the first time I'm actually rooting for him). | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
Fingers crossed he keeps it going. | ||
palexhur
Colombia730 Posts
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Gjhc
Portugal161 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 23 2016 00:24 Gjhc wrote: Damn these last 2 stages. And what a beast Kruijswijk was, going the fastest while looking the slowest. Really wanna see his power data for today, I'd say 400+ for the whole time no? I'm going to guess right about there. Somewhere between 390w-410w average for the TT assuming his weight is 66kg as listed, and that there weren't any crazy winds (doesn't seem to be because they weren't mentioned, and other pros like strava data lines up nicely). | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
NibalI just hasnt been the same since winning yellow in 2014. Obviously he is still good, but 2014 Nibali was a terrifying monster. Jungels continues to impress for me, as does Chaves. I didn't see Chaves as a serious high mountain threar coming in...but obviously I was wrong there. Valverde has been about as expected. Zakarin has looked good...but wayyy to much bad luck to know how good. | ||
Gjhc
Portugal161 Posts
And Zakarin's crash looked terrible, hopefully it wasn't so bad as it looked. | ||
DaCruise
Denmark2457 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 28 2016 00:53 Gjhc wrote: I'm speechless. Kruijswijk being the strongest (even today) but with the worst luck possible now only 3rd overall, sometimes cycling can make me mad. And Zakarin's crash looked terrible, hopefully it wasn't so bad as it looked. Yea it sucks. I'm super bummed out right now. I realize it's a part of the sport, and can happen to anyone, anywhere; but it still doesn't make it any less crappy when it happens to someone at a time like that, especially when it's someone you happen to be rooting for. Kruijswijk was clearly the strongest rider of this race, and certainly more than deserving of winning the Giro. Fractured rib for Kruijswijk, so who knows if he will even start tomorrow...and if he does I can't seem him being in particularly good form. It would be hard enough to come out in good spirits after a day like that even totally unscathed, but given the significant injury...meh. Hoping he pulls a rabbit out of a hat and takes a win for the ages, but I can't see it. Vincenzo looked really good today. 44 seconds is a big ask to take back on Chaves, but if he managed that it would also be one heck of a Giro win. Should be a good fight tomorrow, but I'll be watching it a bit numb tomorrow. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 28 2016 05:32 DaCruise wrote: Todays stage was epic. Now we can actually have a grand tour where the top 3 are within seconds of eachother after 3 weeks and 80+ hours in the saddle. Nah, not epic overall. Just disappointing. Never anything epic about stages with major crashes, Zakarin is out; and given the fractured rib there is no guarantee Kruijswijk even starts tomorrow. The one thing I would consider epic is Nibali's ride. Came a little out of nowhere and managed to do serious damage to Chaves, who has been a definite 2nd strongest this whole race. Tomorrow's stage will be interesting to see who wins...sadly for all the wrong reasons. | ||
DaCruise
Denmark2457 Posts
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Ghostcom
Denmark4776 Posts
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Gjhc
Portugal161 Posts
Also I don't think Nibali was risking that much on that part of the descent, he seemed to be descending very normal for those circumstances. Again, a moment like that doesn't the strongest and most consistent rider undeserving of the win. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On May 28 2016 17:16 Ghostcom wrote: I really dislike the mentality that a rider is only deserving of winning if he out climbs his opponents. If you go up, you also have to go down and if you can't stay on the bike you aren't deserving of winning. Kruijswijk had plenty of time, he could have taken safer lanes but instead chose to risk it by following what he should have known was the riskier lines as it was Nibalis only hope. He screwed up. Fortunately nobody is advocating that mentality. Kruijswijk made a major mistake and obviously paid hard for it. What I did say is that overall Kruijswijk rode well enough that he would have been a deserved winner. I still feel Kruijswijk rode the best Giro. I could see that sounding as saying he deserved to win, but there is subtle difference. To me, a 3 second lapse of concentration with an unlucky landing on the back doesn't wipe out the quality of riding over 18.5 other days of racing. Basically its down the the luck aspect for me. Kruijswijk could have crashed a thousand different ways, he just happened to get dealt a particularly horrific tumble that ended his race. He could just as easily have come to a gentle stop in the snowbank, taken the rest of the descent with care, and won the Giro by 2'. If everybody crashed the same, I'd have no problems, but sometimes you land good, sometimes you land not so good. Kruijswijk had to set himself up for it by making a significant mistake, which makes his loss a reasonable thing, but the fact remains he lost the Giro because of a very unlucky landing/crash permutation. I also said that even if it's a part of bike racing, it's still always a crappy situation when someone crashes. To me that isn't drama or compelling. People getting hurt just doesn't fall into that category, and is never something I want to see. I will go on the record as saying I do dislike the luck aspect of racing. Crashing on a descent doesnt fall into that category. Getting a flat with 10km to go before the sprint or at the base of the final climb definitely does. There isn't a solution, but it's just stupid when Marcel Kittle misses out on the stage 8 sprint or like last year Porte loses 2' because his flat timing sucks. Unfortunately, any attempt at a solution is either unfair or generally ridiculous. I will say the crashes yesterday up a very interesting stage 20 though. That was a nail biter to watch the whole way, especially when it looked like he might have been tying up on the final short climb. The way Kruijswijk rode with a fractured rib was fantastic as well. Didn't give up and still fought for a respectable final stage despite that. FYI: Kruijswijks crash wasn't from being risky. They were taking that corner quite relaxed. He was thinking about eating something, deviated off his line, realized he could no longer make the corner and did his best to control the miscue. | ||
FiWiFaKi
Canada9858 Posts
Poor Kruiswijk will be forgotten as quickly as he became somewhat famous, even though barring that incident, he would have been the overwhelming favorite. I don't care much for Zakarin since he tested for anabolic steroids, so I was not upset about his crash. If it wasn't for the viewership of the sport, everyone who has ever been caught doping or abusing substances should receive a lifetime ban. I was impressed with Atapuma, I think we will be seeing a lot more of him (Columbians are taking over). Bob Jungels also impressed me, big things ahead for him. Kruiswijk, I wish you could perform like this during my TdF fantasy last year T_T. Rafal Majka seems to have stagnated in his career, so good news for Tinkoff that Contador is on form. What I'm super excited about Peter Sagan in Astana though, they will have such an insane team. Nibali, Aru, Sagan, Kangert, Scarponi, Boom Lars, Fuglsang, absolutely insane. Too bad Sky snagged up Landa. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
Not so excited about Sagan at Astana. I don't think Astana will give the exposure and publicity in such a way as to really show Sagan off the world as well as they could. Then the fact that Astana, though not quite as bad as Sky, just has this image as a workaholic team that's all about results and not fun. Just seems like an odd marriage for a true character like Sagan. That and the doping suspiscions and talk that surround Astana makes me bummed Sagan is potentially headed there. Jungles was hugely impressive. He continued to do respectable even in the high mountains all the way through to the finish. Guy certainly has a bright future. Agree also about Majka. He seemed like the next star after some breakout performances in 2014 and his monstrous climb of the Tourmalet to get the stage win last year in the TdF. He's quite good, but he definitely isn't materializing into a potential grand tour winner yet. Kruijswijk I'm still bullish on. He is decently young, and seems to be better each year. He showed some signs in 2014, then last year at the Giro he was a beast once he started ocusing for himself the last week and a half. He might have been the best besides potentially Landa. Then this year he shows up and is clearly the strongest rider. He needs to bounce back mentally, but he strikes me as a guy that has a few years now to be among the better GT riders. Probably not a Quintana/Froome/Contador, but certainly in that Nibali/Landa/Aru type group. Yea, Kruijswijk didn't do anything at the tour last year, but thats because he did it off the back of the Giro. That's next to impossible (just look how bad Bertie was), especially when the Giro was like last year. The Giro last year was INSANE. Comparing files, the hardest day this year was literally not even in the top half of stages last year. It was suicide pace all the way. Trying to recovery from that and get back for the Tour was just not happening. I'd love to see Kruijswijk come back and give the Vuelta a crack though. MTA: Everyone who has ever been caught doping absolutely should be given a lifetime ban. No doubt. | ||
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