On April 14 2017 12:30 Jerubaal wrote: I think this race, if anything, has highlighted how many ways you can analyze a player's impact on a team, and we have a long way to go to fully explore all of these stats.
What's the argument against Harden? One of the best offensive seasons we have ever seen, Rockets outperforming their preseasion predictions, 3rd best record in the league, first player to have 2000 points scored and 2000 points produced off assists, etc. MVP should go to Harden.
The argument would be that he really contributes nothing besides points and assists. Does anyone have an opinion of him when he doesn't have the ball? I've never seen him as an aggressive offensive player sans ball.
On April 14 2017 12:00 RowdierBob wrote: Id be interested to see a metric on how many point Kawhi saves with his D because WB and Hatden definitely give some of their offensive production back.
You think? Several metrics look on Westbrook's defense highly. Does he gamble too much?
Harden's not good off the ball? That's the argument?
I think the saddest stat on Westbrook's defense is that he's last in the league in contested shots. He's 3rd from last in contested 3s behind only Whiteside and Gobert. You can't get defensive rebounds by contesting 3s so he'd rather stay near the rim than contest a shooter's shot. Harden has twice as many contested shots as Westbrook.
On April 14 2017 12:30 Jerubaal wrote: I think this race, if anything, has highlighted how many ways you can analyze a player's impact on a team, and we have a long way to go to fully explore all of these stats.
On April 14 2017 11:09 BlackJack wrote:
What's the argument against Harden? One of the best offensive seasons we have ever seen, Rockets outperforming their preseasion predictions, 3rd best record in the league, first player to have 2000 points scored and 2000 points produced off assists, etc. MVP should go to Harden.
The argument would be that he really contributes nothing besides points and assists. Does anyone have an opinion of him when he doesn't have the ball? I've never seen him as an aggressive offensive player sans ball.
On April 14 2017 12:00 RowdierBob wrote: Id be interested to see a metric on how many point Kawhi saves with his D because WB and Hatden definitely give some of their offensive production back.
You think? Several metrics look on Westbrook's defense highly. Does he gamble too much?
Harden's not good off the ball? That's the argument?
I think the saddest stat on Westbrook's defense is that he's last in the league in contested shots. He's 3rd from last in contested 3s behind only Whiteside and Gobert. You can't get defensive rebounds by contesting 3s so he'd rather stay near the rim than contest a shooter's shot. Harden has twice as many contested shots as Westbrook.
well is it because harden plays no d, so he leaves his guy open for 3s all the time? i just did a quick google search and im unsure if this is actually what i was looking for, but it says that harden had the second most defended 3 pointers behind wiggins. if true, you could argue that harden plays shit d and gives up looks but is at least able to get back to the shooter, and im not sure what the definition of "contested" is, is it just that he's within a certain distance to the shooter? or that he jumped at the shooter?
On April 14 2017 16:07 jmbthirteen wrote: The argument against Harden is easy. The system and the coach.
A lot of MVP winners were in great systems with top coaches... it comes with the seeding. Besides, Westbrook got a situation perfect for him to mass counting stats, and a coach that allowed him to shatter the all-time usage rate record. I'd love to see what more 'valuable' players would have put up with that kind of usage, but most teams prefer to get W's. It's also good basketball to keep the rest of the team involved beyond them boxing out and producing the necessary 10 assisted buckets.
What would Westbrook do in Houston and what would Harden do in OKC? Would Harden get OKC to the playoffs? How many assists would he put up with OKC's shooters? Do you think Westbrook's numbers would suffer in Houston? What would the record difference be for the Rockets?
Considering how OKC won 80% of the games where Westbrook had a triple double, I don't think the usage argument is any good. He clearly is what made that team any sort of good. Westbrook got himself a perfect situation for "padding stats" by having a shitty team around him. If thats the argument for why he shouldn't win, then he should win.
On April 14 2017 16:07 jmbthirteen wrote: The argument against Harden is easy. The system and the coach.
A lot of MVP winners were in great systems with top coaches... it comes with the seeding. Besides, Westbrook got a situation perfect for him to mass counting stats, and a coach that allowed him to shatter the all-time usage rate record. I'd love to see what more 'valuable' players would have put up with that kind of usage, but most teams prefer to get W's. It's also good basketball to keep the rest of the team involved beyond them boxing out and producing the necessary 10 assisted buckets.
What would Westbrook do in Houston and what would Harden do in OKC? Would Harden get OKC to the playoffs? How many assists would he put up with OKC's shooters? Do you think Westbrook's numbers would suffer in Houston? What would the record difference be for the Rockets?
Considering how OKC won 80% of the games where Westbrook had a triple double, I don't think the usage argument is any good. He clearly is what made that team any sort of good. Westbrook got himself a perfect situation for "padding stats" by having a shitty team around him. If thats the argument for why he shouldn't win, then he should win.
Harden set up Capela and Nene for easy baskets all season, Kanter and Adams wouldn't be much different. As for the perimeter guys, yes Harden would probably lose an assist or two, but he does also have the ball in his hands less than WB. He's also resuscitated Gordon's career and trusted his teammates and maximized the system beyond anyone's expectations. Of course Dantoni played a big role in turning them around, but only two players have made his style of coaching look this good, and one of them got 2 MVP's. The quality of rosters is really not that dissimilar; it's just the way the two systems played out. OKC's box-out, give WB 10 assists then gtfo the way 'team' tanked people's perception of their abilities to the point where WB jacking up 7 34% 3's a game was considered MVP level, winning basketball.
The 80% win stat when WB triple doubles is really misleading. Of course if your historic usage guy who you feed boards to, doesn't triple double w. assists, you're probably gonna lose. If he doesn't triple double with boards, a big part of that is likely due to the other team missing less 3's and FT's. WB is an all-in strat, where if he wins he gets all the credit, and if he loses it's because of shitty teammates (who despite the MVP narrative, aren't that bad). OKC also had an awful record when their 'most valuable' player scored 40+. If they actually shared the ball and played a semi-normal style of offence that involved the team not being spectators (as they did vs Minnie recently), then the stat might have some relevance.
Just watch WB on that Nick Young shot, then the rest of WB's rebounding. How do people get so hyped over this historic average when it's built on this kind of play?
good move by Lue to put Jefferson in at the end for his defense. as the broadcasters noted it was probably a bad move by Indy to call a timeout and give Cleveland a chance to set up the double team on PG.
it looks like Derozan is the Raptors point guard when Lowry is not on the floor. good move by Casey to do that.
Thoughts on Derozan and Toronto's first half is pretty on point with the playoff article I agreed with on the Ringer today:
Yet while the threat Korver and Thompson pose still creates space for an offense, an inefficient scorer like DeRozan crumples amid the increased pressure. This year, over 90 percent of his shots have come from within the 3-point arc, so DeRozan has to make those shots at an incredibly high rate in order to still be an effective scorer. It’s the whole “three is more than two” thing. He pulls off that tight-rope act in the regular season, but it’s just harder to make shots in the playoffs, and so if DeRozan’s field goal percentage drops even just a few points, he becomes a net negative on offense. In the playoffs, he shoots a full 5 percentage points worse from the field.
On April 16 2017 06:34 JimmyJRaynor wrote: good move by Lue to put Jefferson in at the end for his defense. as the broadcasters noted it was probably a bad move by Indy to call a timeout and give Cleveland a chance to set up the double team on PG.
Ya that timeout call with the ball in George's hands was not the best use of it.
that video of wb rebounding is pretty funny, half of them is just rebounds coming to him and going after loose rebounds, or that he's rebounding over guys, not sure how u can fault him for those. i mean if u want to say that he's stat padding, that particular video did not do it for me.
Isaiah Thomas' defense really sucks badly; overall i think he is an average PG. That aside, one has to wonder how much the death of his sister will impact him.
It goes back to my earlier question: can you be worse than zero at defense? He's one of the best offensively but one of the worst defenders.
I dont think anyone is in love with Westbrook or going ermagerd trip dubs! But I think a) we find his season more unique and b) some people just dont like Harden's style of play no matter how we'll he does it.
On April 16 2017 09:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote: Isaiah Thomas' defense really sucks badly; overall i think he is an average PG. That aside, one has to wonder how much the death of his sister will impact him.
On April 14 2017 12:00 RowdierBob wrote: Id be interested to see a metric on how many point Kawhi saves with his D because WB and Hatden definitely give some of their offensive production back.
Oddly enough almost all of the metrics show that the Spurs have been better defensively when Kawhi is on the bench. A lot better. Obviously that's not the case but it's difficult for Kawhi supporters because there are no metrics that they can use to argue their point.
I'll assume that this was posted in good conscience, so I will just respond by pointing out the metrics that explain this phenomenon (on why the SAS Drtg is higher when Kawhi is out compared to when he is in). Here goes: Teams have learned to minimize Kawhi's elite defensive skills by dragging him out of the play and settling for a 4 on 4. This greatly reduces their efficiency, at the cost of "sacrificing" any offensive output from their best player, whom Kawhi is guarding. When he is out, SAS can go about their normal defensive rotations.
Fortunately for SAS: 1. This anomaly was statistically insignificant in determining win/loss for SAS 2. SAS have learned to adjust, floating Kawhi in weakside wing zone with either LMA or Green covering any stray bodies (to be honest, Popovich couldn't care any less, any defensive scheme gives them advantage, and only does this "cheat" schemes in non-crucial possessions) 3. This happened early to mid season only when the stakes where not as high and teams were still in the feeling out process 4. This will not happen in the playoffs. No sane coach would take out Harden, Durant, Westbrook, James, or any of their superstars on an offensive possession just for the possibility of dragging out Kawhi.
On April 16 2017 17:14 Djagulingu wrote: Fucking Antetokounmpo trampled over the Raptors.
That poor Raptors owner, praising Antetokounmpo for having so much room for improvement still, at the same time wishing it doesnt happen this series. They could be the dark horse in the east
On April 16 2017 08:25 zev318 wrote: that video of wb rebounding is pretty funny, half of them is just rebounds coming to him and going after loose rebounds, or that he's rebounding over guys, not sure how u can fault him for those. i mean if u want to say that he's stat padding, that particular video did not do it for me.
For sure, the R column in WBs tripledouble is padded, and I used to hate his guts for it too, until Kevin Durant (and most of his teammates during interviews - read Kanter's recent post on The Players Tribune) said that it was a team system. Everyone boxes out the paint and let WB grab the rebound so that they cut off the traditional handover from the center/rebounder to the pg and let russ run the fastbreak as soon as he hits the ground. Durant and the rest could then just run the floor and develop the play earlier than usual.
Having said that, the opposite side of the coin is that WB has the lowest defensive attempts (I'm drawing from memory, but his is somewhere around 25%, which means that if the person he is guarding made 12 attempts in a game, 9 of those attempts will go completely unchallenged). Why is that, you ask? Making defensive attempts will take WB out of the rebounding picture, which is why we can all see WB rushing toward the hoop as soon as he sees his opponent gather for the shot.