|
On July 15 2017 02:11 MassHysteria wrote: That was a fun stage. I was unmotivated to watch after that first stage TT and then Cavs and Sagan going out, but at least it's getting competitive and I mainly want to see Froome go down tbh 8D.
It was a good stage. Nice gains for Nairo and Landa (Contador too, but he is well and truly out of it). Doubt Nairo can be a threat, he'd have to have an absolute stunner of a day or two. Landa however is more interesting, realistically he probably won't win, as he would likely need 1:30-2:00 more than what he has now, but he has looked very strong. Froome probably has to crack for Landa to win, but with Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran could see Froome in trouble.
Still Froome's to lose in my opinion, but it's definitely interesting at this point!
|
On July 15 2017 03:42 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2017 02:11 MassHysteria wrote: That was a fun stage. I was unmotivated to watch after that first stage TT and then Cavs and Sagan going out, but at least it's getting competitive and I mainly want to see Froome go down tbh 8D. It was a good stage. Nice gains for Nairo and Landa (Contador too, but he is well and truly out of it). Doubt Nairo can be a threat, he'd have to have an absolute stunner of a day or two. Landa however is more interesting, realistically he probably won't win, as he would likely need 1:30-2:00 more than what he has now, but he has looked very strong. Froome probably has to crack for Landa to win, but with Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran could see Froome in trouble. Still Froome's to lose in my opinion, but it's definitely interesting at this point! Ya it was a little strange seeing him and 'kowski lead the chase for Landa that much with the other contenders in the group with him. But maybe he is afraid of his teammate?
|
On July 15 2017 04:51 MassHysteria wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2017 03:42 L_Master wrote:On July 15 2017 02:11 MassHysteria wrote: That was a fun stage. I was unmotivated to watch after that first stage TT and then Cavs and Sagan going out, but at least it's getting competitive and I mainly want to see Froome go down tbh 8D. It was a good stage. Nice gains for Nairo and Landa (Contador too, but he is well and truly out of it). Doubt Nairo can be a threat, he'd have to have an absolute stunner of a day or two. Landa however is more interesting, realistically he probably won't win, as he would likely need 1:30-2:00 more than what he has now, but he has looked very strong. Froome probably has to crack for Landa to win, but with Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran could see Froome in trouble. Still Froome's to lose in my opinion, but it's definitely interesting at this point! Ya it was a little strange seeing him and 'kowski lead the chase for Landa that much with the other contenders in the group with him. But maybe he is afraid of his teammate?
Initially I was dismissive of Landa being similar to Froome/Wiggins in 2012; and to be honest on the but after today's stage I'm a little less sure of my initial feeling. Landa definitely started working at the front with Contador, and did ALOT of work on the run in to the line. He was clearly trying to gain time, and the fact that Froome and Kwaitkowski did as much work as they did on the front when they could have been chilling in the group really makes me wonder if that was as much to pull back Landa as it was to try and gap a few GC guys.
The big question is, how much of Landa's riding was team sky directive? It could be that the DS/Brailsford really want two major GC threats, and once they saw Landa had the gap turned him free to ride, even if that's less good for Froome. So question is, did they really want Landa out there to have two guys close on GC, or are they kinda accepting that as well as Landa is going Landa wants to do his own thing? Froome is usually quite classy so he is talking nice about Landa, and about how it's a great card to play...but I find it unlikely Froome is so loyal to his team he would be satisfied if Landa went 4' up the road and into a major lead because Aru/Bardet/Uran all thought it was a bluff and didn't chase hard.
Short of that situation though, Froome would need to crack or have a major mistake for Landa to win. He needs to pull back 2' on Froome to win most likely, and he isn't going to gain that unless Froome really falls apart or there is some major error. Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran are actually in a position where if they are just stronger than Froome they could claw back enough time in the Alps to hold Froome off in the TT. 30" for Aru on Izoard, and another 15" somewhere else would probably do it. If Aru is the stronger climber right now, that could happen.
|
On July 15 2017 05:03 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2017 04:51 MassHysteria wrote:On July 15 2017 03:42 L_Master wrote:On July 15 2017 02:11 MassHysteria wrote: That was a fun stage. I was unmotivated to watch after that first stage TT and then Cavs and Sagan going out, but at least it's getting competitive and I mainly want to see Froome go down tbh 8D. It was a good stage. Nice gains for Nairo and Landa (Contador too, but he is well and truly out of it). Doubt Nairo can be a threat, he'd have to have an absolute stunner of a day or two. Landa however is more interesting, realistically he probably won't win, as he would likely need 1:30-2:00 more than what he has now, but he has looked very strong. Froome probably has to crack for Landa to win, but with Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran could see Froome in trouble. Still Froome's to lose in my opinion, but it's definitely interesting at this point! Ya it was a little strange seeing him and 'kowski lead the chase for Landa that much with the other contenders in the group with him. But maybe he is afraid of his teammate? Initially I was dismissive of Landa being similar to Froome/Wiggins in 2012; but after today's stage I'm a little less sure of my initial feeling. Landa definitely started working at the front with Contador, and did ALOT of work on the run in to the line. He was clearly trying to gain time, and the fact that Froome and Kwaitkowski did as much work as they did on the front when they could have been chilling in the group really makes me wonder if that was as much to pull back Landa as it was to try and gap a few GC guys. The big question is, how much of Landa's riding was team sky directive? It could be that the DS/Brailsford really want two major GC threats, and once they saw Landa had the gap turned him free to ride, even if that's less good for Froome. So question is, did they really want Landa out there to have two guys close on GC, or are they kinda accepting that as well as Landa is going Landa wants to do his own thing? Froome is usually quite classy so he is talking nice about Landa, and about how it's a great card to play...but I find it unlikely Froome is so loyal to his team he would be satisfied if Landa went 4' up the road and into a major lead because Aru/Bardet/Uran all thought it was a bluff and didn't chase hard. Short of that situation though, Froome would need to crack or have a major mistake for Landa to win. He needs to pull back 2' on Froome to win most likely, and he isn't going to gain that unless Froome really falls apart or there is some major error. Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran are actually in a position where if they are just stronger than Froome they could claw back enough time in the Alps to hold Froome off in the TT. 30" for Aru on Izoard, and another 15" somewhere else would probably do it. If Aru is the stronger climber right now, that could happen.
I think 2 minutes is extremely easy to lose on Galibier, if you're at 98% rather than 100%. 12km at 7%, then a 5km break, and 18km at at 7% again. My bet would be that 3 of the current top 10 will lose at minimum 4 minutes to the first GC contender there, and imo it's where the tour will be determined.
Stage 18, I dunno, I guess attacking on Col de Vars is possible, on that kick up with 4.5km to go, but it's a fairly long flat up to Izoard, and even the climb starts fairly shallow at 5%. I think it'll be in that last 7km, where the person who wins the stage will be remembered as the best climber of the Tour, but not enough time to make up unless it's very close in the GC. 1st place will finish 1 minute up on 5th here imo.
Only other stage of note is 15, might be some interesting strategies here, since there's a decent climb at the start of the stage and a rest day afterwards, so people might try and go all out on the first climb, and all the GC guys will be exposed for almost the whole day, then very interesting stuff would happen. More likely though I think is we will have a reduced peleton of like 50~, and the top 10 guys will be all that's left on the last climb, and they'll finish together +/- a few seconds. Kind of like stage 9.
Man, but man idk, I really dislike how they scheduled the tour this year... I think the last 4 stages you always want to have them: 18: Queen Stage (170km+, 3HC climbs of at least 1000m elevation gain each, no more than 20km flat in the last 100km, finish with descent and/or some 10%+ gradient for 1-2km~) 19: Long Flat ITT (30-50km) 20: Short stage (100-150km), 15km+ climb of 6-8%, followed summit finish on Alpe d'Huez type climb, 2014 Stage 18 or 2015 Stage 20 21: Champs-Elysees
|
On July 15 2017 05:03 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2017 04:51 MassHysteria wrote:On July 15 2017 03:42 L_Master wrote:On July 15 2017 02:11 MassHysteria wrote: That was a fun stage. I was unmotivated to watch after that first stage TT and then Cavs and Sagan going out, but at least it's getting competitive and I mainly want to see Froome go down tbh 8D. It was a good stage. Nice gains for Nairo and Landa (Contador too, but he is well and truly out of it). Doubt Nairo can be a threat, he'd have to have an absolute stunner of a day or two. Landa however is more interesting, realistically he probably won't win, as he would likely need 1:30-2:00 more than what he has now, but he has looked very strong. Froome probably has to crack for Landa to win, but with Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran could see Froome in trouble. Still Froome's to lose in my opinion, but it's definitely interesting at this point! Ya it was a little strange seeing him and 'kowski lead the chase for Landa that much with the other contenders in the group with him. But maybe he is afraid of his teammate? Initially I was dismissive of Landa being similar to Froome/Wiggins in 2012; and to be honest on the but after today's stage I'm a little less sure of my initial feeling. Landa definitely started working at the front with Contador, and did ALOT of work on the run in to the line. He was clearly trying to gain time, and the fact that Froome and Kwaitkowski did as much work as they did on the front when they could have been chilling in the group really makes me wonder if that was as much to pull back Landa as it was to try and gap a few GC guys. The big question is, how much of Landa's riding was team sky directive? It could be that the DS/Brailsford really want two major GC threats, and once they saw Landa had the gap turned him free to ride, even if that's less good for Froome. So question is, did they really want Landa out there to have two guys close on GC, or are they kinda accepting that as well as Landa is going Landa wants to do his own thing? Froome is usually quite classy so he is talking nice about Landa, and about how it's a great card to play...but I find it unlikely Froome is so loyal to his team he would be satisfied if Landa went 4' up the road and into a major lead because Aru/Bardet/Uran all thought it was a bluff and didn't chase hard. Short of that situation though, Froome would need to crack or have a major mistake for Landa to win. He needs to pull back 2' on Froome to win most likely, and he isn't going to gain that unless Froome really falls apart or there is some major error. Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran are actually in a position where if they are just stronger than Froome they could claw back enough time in the Alps to hold Froome off in the TT. 30" for Aru on Izoard, and another 15" somewhere else would probably do it. If Aru is the stronger climber right now, that could happen.
Yea it was odd to see Landa doing a lot of pacemaking on the last climb AND leading out the sprint near the end. I was glad to see Martin and Yates make up a few seconds there near the end. Really unfortunate about the Porte/Martin crash because Martin has looked really strong this tour.
I don't really know what Martin was thinking though when he pacemaked up the last climb... then got dropped as soon as the first attacks happened. I literally called that it was going to happen like 10m before it happened. But good on him for being so enthusiastic lol
|
On July 15 2017 12:38 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2017 05:03 L_Master wrote:On July 15 2017 04:51 MassHysteria wrote:On July 15 2017 03:42 L_Master wrote:On July 15 2017 02:11 MassHysteria wrote: That was a fun stage. I was unmotivated to watch after that first stage TT and then Cavs and Sagan going out, but at least it's getting competitive and I mainly want to see Froome go down tbh 8D. It was a good stage. Nice gains for Nairo and Landa (Contador too, but he is well and truly out of it). Doubt Nairo can be a threat, he'd have to have an absolute stunner of a day or two. Landa however is more interesting, realistically he probably won't win, as he would likely need 1:30-2:00 more than what he has now, but he has looked very strong. Froome probably has to crack for Landa to win, but with Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran could see Froome in trouble. Still Froome's to lose in my opinion, but it's definitely interesting at this point! Ya it was a little strange seeing him and 'kowski lead the chase for Landa that much with the other contenders in the group with him. But maybe he is afraid of his teammate? Initially I was dismissive of Landa being similar to Froome/Wiggins in 2012; and to be honest on the but after today's stage I'm a little less sure of my initial feeling. Landa definitely started working at the front with Contador, and did ALOT of work on the run in to the line. He was clearly trying to gain time, and the fact that Froome and Kwaitkowski did as much work as they did on the front when they could have been chilling in the group really makes me wonder if that was as much to pull back Landa as it was to try and gap a few GC guys. The big question is, how much of Landa's riding was team sky directive? It could be that the DS/Brailsford really want two major GC threats, and once they saw Landa had the gap turned him free to ride, even if that's less good for Froome. So question is, did they really want Landa out there to have two guys close on GC, or are they kinda accepting that as well as Landa is going Landa wants to do his own thing? Froome is usually quite classy so he is talking nice about Landa, and about how it's a great card to play...but I find it unlikely Froome is so loyal to his team he would be satisfied if Landa went 4' up the road and into a major lead because Aru/Bardet/Uran all thought it was a bluff and didn't chase hard. Short of that situation though, Froome would need to crack or have a major mistake for Landa to win. He needs to pull back 2' on Froome to win most likely, and he isn't going to gain that unless Froome really falls apart or there is some major error. Aru, and to a lesser extent Bardet/Uran are actually in a position where if they are just stronger than Froome they could claw back enough time in the Alps to hold Froome off in the TT. 30" for Aru on Izoard, and another 15" somewhere else would probably do it. If Aru is the stronger climber right now, that could happen. Yea it was odd to see Landa doing a lot of pacemaking on the last climb AND leading out the sprint near the end. I was glad to see Martin and Yates make up a few seconds there near the end. Really unfortunate about the Porte/Martin crash because Martin has looked really strong this tour. I don't really know what Martin was thinking though when he pacemaked up the last climb... then got dropped as soon as the first attacks happened. I literally called that it was going to happen like 10m before it happened. But good on him for being so enthusiastic lol
He said going out of the saddle is extremely painful so he was setting a hard tempo like sky usually would to discourage attacks and help his back. Guess he figured he could probably afford to chase on...and it more or less worked out for him given that
|
My memories are horrible, when did we have the last tt on a mountain? I'd love myself a tourmalet-tt.
|
On July 15 2017 15:27 smr wrote: My memories are horrible, when did we have the last tt on a mountain? I'd love myself a tourmalet-tt.
Mountain time trials are kind of silly, since Tourmalet is essentially a time trial when it's in a normal stage (assuming summit finish).
2016 had a mountain time trial, 17km and between kilometer 4-14 was a 650m elevation gain, so 6.5% average gradient for 60% of the TT.
|
Wtf was Aru/Astana thinking? That was probably the worst defense of the yellow jersey I've ever seen.
Seriously absolutely terrible. Astana with three teammates in the groupetto. Truly disgusting
|
Valgren's post race interview was also very telling to the dysfunction of Astana. Wowzers.
|
Just when shit was getting interesting too, dam.
|
Well, thinking next weekend I'll give my mountains route a rip.
Looking at this for the route, assuming I have the gas in the engine for it: www.strava.com
Probably will give it full gas on Flagstaff see what sort of VAM I can get on a approx 30' climb, and then suffer through the rest from there. Anybody else planning any good rides?
|
On July 16 2017 03:51 L_Master wrote:Well, thinking next weekend I'll give my mountains route a rip. Looking at this for the route, assuming I have the gas in the engine for it: www.strava.comProbably will give it full gas on Flagstaff see what sort of VAM I can get on a approx 30' climb, and then suffer through the rest from there. Anybody else planning any good rides?
I realized I need a real tire pump considering I don't have one for my shitty 1999 GT Force road bike or something lol. Can't cycle at all until I have pumped tires lol
|
oh wow, not good for froome. =/
|
On July 16 2017 23:54 HolydaKing wrote: oh wow, not good for froome. =/ Now they bring Landa back to help him
edit: caught back up to the group like nothing..Landa just beasting
|
Always feels like Landa would crush if he had the support of his team and wouldn't be a supporter of Froome. He's so strong.
Finally a strong showing of Mollema, I got him in my Fantasy team and so far he was pretty weak.
|
On July 17 2017 00:46 HolydaKing wrote: Always feels like Landa would crush if he had the support of his team and wouldn't be a supporter of Froome. He's so strong.
Finally a strong showing of Mollema, I got him in my Fantasy team and so far he was pretty weak.
Would've been pretty pissed if I were Mollema that I had to domestique a 34 year old washed up Contador when i'm still in my prime and have proven i'm just as good as Contador's current form. Maybe there were additional factors that I don't know about regarding his form
|
Mollema did the Giro this year so going for GC wouldn't have worked out this year. I believe that was the primary reason for him being Contador's support instead
|
On July 17 2017 19:03 Koerage wrote: Mollema did the Giro this year so going for GC wouldn't have worked out this year. I believe that was the primary reason for him being Contador's support instead Yeah same like Quintana. Quintana's father was complaining that his team wanted him to do both. Apparently doing both is too harsh.
|
On July 17 2017 19:03 Koerage wrote: Mollema did the Giro this year so going for GC wouldn't have worked out this year. I believe that was the primary reason for him being Contador's support instead
Ah I see. That makes sense.
|
|
|
|