Is there something inherently wrong with a game where the supposed best players so often lose to players who are widely considered weaker than them? Like, is the skill ceiling not high enough? Is it too luck based? Why don't the best players beat the slightly less good players more often?
I know variance is a thing, and on paper the better player/team can and does lose to the weaker player/team, but this seems to happen a lot more in Starcraft than it does in other sports I watch. Federer can be injured or have a bad day, but 95% of the time he beats the lower ranked player that he faces.
Consider this: Artosis, perhaps the most knowledgable guy in all of Starcraft II, is constantly predicting certain players to do well and constantly getting it wrong. Hence, the "curse".
But what if this game is just inherently too luck based, too RNG, too coin flip-y, that to predict winners is very much like predicting winners in a tournament of people playing Rock, Paper, Scissors. Yeah, you can analyze and make up a bunch of depth and nuance that you think is there, but what if it's an illusion? You can say that PartinG is a much stronger player than Curious, he should win 3-1, maybe 3-2. But for then for him to get trounced 0-3, what does that say about this game we watch?
Here's something else. I am an avid liquibet voter. I've voted on every vote this season. I try to vote for the people I think will win, not hope will win. My correct liquibets is 125 of 236, or 53%. 53%! Only 3% higher than what a person would get if they closed their eyes and picked every answer at random (since all liquibets are 50/50).
And you know what? Even having a mere 53% correct voting rate puts me in the top 20% of people who vote every time. (There are 12310 people who have voted on liquibet this season, through the mystic arts of math and estimation, I've concluded that ~3100 people like me vote on every bet.) Isn't that weird?
The maximum number of liquibet points you can have this season right now is 242, if you got every vote correct. Obviously, this is essentially impossible, but how high do you think the #1 ranked person is?
The number 1 ranked person on liquibet, a fellow by the name of SpiZe, has 157 points. He has predicted the correct winner 64.9% of the time. There are 3 people tied for second (aznball123, Arla, and quannump) at 152 points, or 62.8%.
Don't those numbers seem low to you? Out of ~3100 people who vote every time (and these people who vote every time are probably gonna be pretty avid fans of Starcraft, not just casual viewers), the very best predictors, the Artosis of liquibet predictions, is only sitting at 64.9%, he's correct less than 2 out of 3 times. And he's an outlier, there are only 17, SEVENTEEN, people on liquibet who are right more than 60% of the time.
Consider if I were to look at any sport I don't watch at all, football or basketball, and predicted the winners of each game. Just by looking on wikipedia at the teams stats this season and last, I feel like I could probably be right around 65% of the time. Yet the absolute sickest nerd ballers of starcraft who know the game and players inside and out, have trouble being right 60% of the time.
Is there something wrong with the game? If so, is there anything that can be done to fix it?
edit: I originally submitted this as a thread on reddit, but long text posts by someone not famous have a habit of dying quick on that site. I wanted to hear some more opinions on the matter.
One point a couple of people made in that thread was that even back in Brood War, the best of the best maintained only a ~70% winrate. I would say that that's not good enough either. Additionally, there is no one in SC2 that can even reach that low watermark. Mvp, the King of Wings, has a lifetime TLPD winrate of 61%. Life, the most dominant player we've seen in a long time, has over the last 6 months a winrate of 68% (he also failed to reach the round of 8 the last two seasons). After Life, the very top pros are between ~54 and ~62% winrate over the last 6 months. This is for an expansion that's been played for nearly three years now and that's coming to an end soon, shouldn't the game be stable enough for it not to be so volatile?