GomTV sent preview materials to various media, including interviews with the two GSL finalists and predictions from the Korean casters.
Woongjin_Soulkey
Q: How do you feel reaching your very first finals? A: The finals stage is something I've only dreamed about so I'm really happy to reach it, and I want to win.
Q: You haven't had this kind of chance since your debut, was it tough not winning a championship all this time? A: It wasn't really hard as much as it was disappointing. The opportunity is here now, and I want to grasp this opportunity.
Q: You have a chance to win a championship right after the release of HotS. What does HotS mean to you? A: HotS has given me an opportunity I haven't had so far as a progamer.
Q: How is your team reacting to you reaching the finals? A: They're all working hard to help me as if they were the ones in the finals. They're giving me a lot of compliments and encouragement to make sure my morale doesn't go down.
Q: Which player helps you the most in practice? A: All the Terran players on the team are helping me as if it were their own match.
Q: What do you think of Innovation? A: He is the best Terran player.
Q: What are Innovation's strengths and weaknesses? A: He has solid fundamentals and is good at macro games. For weaknesses, as we saw from his series against Symbol, it seems like he can be shaken by early all-ins.
Q: What was the most memorable game leading up to the final? A: The most memorable game is game seven against sOs in the semi-finals, where I confirmed by spot in the finals.
Q: If you win, you become the first WCS Korea champion. A: It's my first time in the finals, and it would be even better if I became the first champion at the same time.
Q: How do you think the games will go in the finals? A: I think there will be a lot of fun games, and I'm excited for them as well. I will prepare as many things as possible and work hard so that we have a games worthy of a finals.
Q: You're known for your quiet personality. Will you celebrate in some way if you win? A: It will depend on how I feel if I win the championship.
Q: Are the coach Ryu and the other coaching staff very helpful? A: They are telling me a lot of small details that I didn't know about, and it's been very helpful.
Q: Your mindset going into the final? A: As much as I beat teammates sOs and Flying to reach this spot, I want to win the championship to make it up to them. I will do my best to win a championship.
Q: Any words for the fans? A: Thank you for always cheering me on, and I'm sorry for not having good results up to now. This is my chance, and I will win the championship to repay your cheers.
STX_INnoVation
Q: How do you feel reaching your very first finals? A: I'm half excited for it, half feeling pressured by it. I think that as far as I've made it here, I have to win it all. I will do my best to become the champion, and also rise to the top at the Season Finals as well.
Q: You haven't had this kind of chance since your debut, was it tough not winning a championship all this time? A: I think I lacked skill up to now, and instead of wanting a championship, I thought it was more important to improve my skill level.
Q: You have a chance to win a championship right after the release of HotS. What does HotS mean to you? A: We all began at the same starting line in HotS, and it was a game that fit me better than others. You can look at it as the true start to my career as a progamer.
Q: How is your team reacting to you reaching the finals? A: The head coach and coaching staff seem to like it, but the reaction is surprisingly stoic.
Q: Which player helps you the most in practice? A: In my games up to now, coach Calm helped me the most. Since I am in the finals, I trust our team's Zergs will help me a lot.
Q: What do you think of Soulkey? A: He is the best Zerg player right now, and if I want to beat him I have to work even harder.
Q: What are Soulkey's strengths and weaknesses? A: I can't see a clear weakness. Rather than try to exploit my opponent's weaknesses, I want to approach the game looking to take advantage of my strengths.
Q: What was the most memorable game leading up to the final? A: I remember the quarter-final game against RorO on Daybreak the most. Outside that, there were a lot of games where I lost in builds but won the game. I think luck has really been on my side, and I have to win a championship with this opportunity.
Q: If you win, you become the first WCS Korea champion. A: First champion, just champion, both are good titles to gain. However, I want to become a player who's not satisfied with one championship, and is always in the championship picture and wins multiple titles.
Q: How do you think the games will go in the finals? A: I think I will win 4:3.
Q: You're known for your quiet personality. Will you celebrate in some way if you win? A: If I win, I think I will be too overcome to have the senses to perform a ceremony. Maybe if I win many times, ceremonies will come out naturally.
Q: Are coach Calm and the other coaching staff very helpful? A: I've received a lot of help since the quarter-finals. I go into the finals trusting in coach Calm.
Q: Your mindset going into the final? A: I wasn't able to show perfect play up to now. There were many engagements that I wasn't pleased with even in games I won. In the finals, I want to show perfect games.
Q: Any words for the fans? A: Because I always had fans in the past, I thought that it as just important to do well myself. However I've come to know the importance and the fans recently. I hope a lot of people come to the finals and cheer for me
Caster Predictions
GSL Director Mr. Chae: Soulkey 4 - 3 Innovation
I expect a very close duel. Innovation and Soulkey are the very best players at both sides of the TvZ match-up. I predict a 4:3 score, with Soulkey winning the championship. Bogus is very good at TvZ macro games but I don't feel that his widow mine use is perfect just yet. On the other hand, I don't see any weaknesses in Soulkey's ZvT play. With Innovation's series planning and macro play going up against Soulkey's defense, I predict a tight series that goes all seven games.
Ahn "Engine" Joon Young: Soulkey 4 - 2 Innovation
The two players play different races, but their play styles are not dissimilar. They detach small forces to harm the enemy's economy and use their resource advantage to overpower their opponents. If there is a difference, Soulkey shows tight defense first before going for one, concentrated attack, while Innovation tries to win with constant reinforcement and production of forces. I predict that they'll be somewhat passive in the early game, avoiding big fights while focusing on harassment. Since Innovation's main weapon is constant trading, I think the damage taken from harassment will hurt him more. I predict a 4 : 2 advantage or so in Soulkey's favor.
Hwang "Gisado" Young Jae: Innovation 4 - 2 Soulkey
Personally I think this is a clash between the best ZvT and TvZ players, and I'm excited for very high level games. The critical point will be the game where Soulkey decides to bring a strong all-in type strategy. If it succeeds, then Soulkey will take the initiative and will be able to focus even more on standard play in the following game. However, since Innovation has played well on maps where Terran is disadvantaged, and because there are many maps that are good for the large scale macro games that Innovation prefers, I predict that he will take a 4 - 2 victory.
Park Dae Man: Soulkey 4 - 2 Innovation
These two players are the top players at their races, and they've already shown very close matches when they've gone head to head, so I'm very excited for this final. There's going to be a lot of big baneling and mine hits in the game, so both players need to stay calm as they play. From an viewers perspective, I think there will be a lot of really exciting, edge of your seat games. The standard scenario will have Innovation being the spear, going up against Soulkey as the shield. The thing to look out for will be which map Soulkey wants to use a special strategy. I think Soulkey will play a little better in a big game on the big stage, so I predict a 4 - 2 victory for him.
FireBatHero: Copout
Seeing Innovation lose so easily to Symbol's rushes in the semi-finals when he went for triple orbitals, I think Soulkey will bring similar must-kill builds in about two games. I think INnovation as well, will look to use some early game tactics in a couple of games instead of standard triple orbital strategies. The key battlefield is game one on Star Station. If that maps plays out normally without any particular strategies on either side, I think Innovation will win the series, regardless of whether or not he wins game one. The title of first Korean HotS champion should mean a lot to both players, and I think it will be a very helpful match for both of them.
Q: What are Innovation's strengths and weaknesses? A: He has solid fundamentals and is good at macro games. For weaknesses, as we saw from his series against Symbol, it seems like he can be shaken by early all-ins.
Soulkey, don't go pure roach, for the sake of our entertainment. Please.
wow they literally called it a copout when he didn't give a prediction, and it's sad that none of them believe in Inno to win Atleast he hat Artosis!!!!! oh wait...
most foreigners have a bias against zerg players excluding DRG-Nestea-Life-Leenock. hell, even against KeSPA players besides Innovation Flash Jaedong (and maybe some Bisu bandwagoners).
On May 31 2013 15:12 Gamegene wrote: most foreigners have a bias against zerg players excluding DRG-Nestea-Life-Leenock. hell, even against KeSPA players besides Innovation Flash Jaedong (and maybe some Bisu bandwagoners).
I think they bring up some great point overall though, if Soulkey can put up a solid defence against Innovations constant mid game aggression he has a great chance of taking the series. This combine with the fact that Innovation commits heavily to the style he plays best, I believe Soulkey can exploit this with his play, either with early game aggression or with heavy defensive positioning, We will have to wait and see though, as I'm sure Innovation also has some cool new builds that he will work into the Bo7.
Innovation plays with extreme greed every TvZ so I guess metagame-wise soulkey is favored. I do however believe Innovation to be the overall better player.
This series really comes down to who gets lucky in the build selection, IMO. They both have the skill to execute whatever they choose, and whomever picks the better build for each map will be the victor. I don't see this being a series characterised by long, drawn out games where they both say "I'm better than you, let's do this" and clash repeatedly in macro battles.
This is a pretty cool little preview, especially from the GSL casters. I like this preview all the more as it seems to give Zerg hope of taking down innovation.
That guy did look kind of unbeatable up until now.
I think this Finals is one of the most evenly matched GSL finals. Recently the only one player that seems to have been able to be on par with Innovation is Soulkey. and the games that they have played have all been really close and awesome. I think the 2 best players are in the Finals. Should be super epic.
Would be more interesting if GOM made a video of these interviews rather than just a typed-out interview. Video interviews would definitely give players a more lively interaction with fans. But still good interviews nonetheless.
Q: What are Innovation's strengths and weaknesses? A: He has solid fundamentals and is good at macro games. For weaknesses, as we saw from his series against Symbol, it seems like he can be shaken by early all-ins.
Soulkey, don't go pure roach, for the sake of our entertainment. Please.
Bleh, if he can achieve the feat of making a ZvT finals more boring than a ZvZ after the shitload of matches we got with this match-up... I'll be hating another zerg.
On May 31 2013 15:05 IcedBacon wrote: Yeah surprised the majority predicted a Soulkey win. Innovation has this, he even took the standard game played in Proleague the other day.
I dont think you can compare the Proleague match with the GSL Finals.
Q: How is your team reacting to you reaching the finals? A: The head coach and coaching staff seem to like it, but the reaction is surprisingly stoic.
Are all his team mates jealous?
if the rumors of STX being in danger of disbanding because of financial trouble are ture, Innovation definitely the only one guaranteed to be eating steak no matter what happens.
or it could just be that they know he's so good that they've just come to expect it.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
How can you possibly call it inept when the games haven't been played yet?
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
How can you possibly call it inept when the games haven't been played yet?
Here's a harsher example: If Roger Federer in his top form plays a player that is ranked number 210 in the world then predicting said player to win vs Federer is an inept prediction no matter the outcome as everything points towards a Federer victory.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Did you seriously based of your conclusions of a betting site instead of actual knowledgeable people?
Q: How is your team reacting to you reaching the finals? A: The head coach and coaching staff seem to like it, but the reaction is surprisingly stoic.
Are all his team mates jealous?
Soulkey seems to have such great support from his team, while innovation got the short end. I feel quite sad for Innovation. Whats wrong with his team :s
Hope Innovation knows that he has A LOT of support from the viewers.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
How can you possibly call it inept when the games haven't been played yet?
Here's a harsher example: If Roger Federer in his top form plays a player that is ranked number 210 in the world then predicting said player to win vs Federer is an inept prediction no matter the outcome as everything points towards a Federer victory.
I don't know if you heard, dawg, but soulkey isn't the 210th ranked Starcraft 2 player.
and upsets in tennis are much more rare than in Starcraft anyway.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Did you seriously based of your conclusions of a betting site instead of actual knowledgeable people?
Actually betting sites are often the best place to see the real chances of an outcome as they try the hardest to figure those out, as, you know, if they get them wrong they will actually incur a huge loss due to your "actual knowledgeable people" coming and betting large sums of money on the winning player.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
How can you possibly call it inept when the games haven't been played yet?
Here's a harsher example: If Roger Federer in his top form plays a player that is ranked number 210 in the world then predicting said player to win vs Federer is an inept prediction no matter the outcome as everything points towards a Federer victory.
I don't know if you heard, dawg, but soulkey isn't the 210th ranked Starcraft 2 player.
and upsets in tennis are much more rare than in Starcraft anyway.
That's why I said "a harsher example" In the Federer case the odds would be something like 1.01 for Federer and 25.00 for the other guy. Here as Soulkey is also pretty good it's only 1.37 vs 3.20. Still, if you had the opportunity to bet 10 dollars and would receive 20 dollars if your player won (2.00 vs 2.00 odds) you would be a fool not to bet on Bogus. Hence my surprise at the casters' choices.
I'm sure Innovation gonna practice really hard for this final match, trying to remove his weaknesses and bring more perfect play. Considering how he's been playing up until now, it's gonna be quite hard to win him as zerg even you're the best zerg. Innovation's ZvT is just so strong.
On May 31 2013 18:33 liberate71 wrote: I love how Innovation is like "Oh I havent done perfect games so far, I want do do perfect games"
OK BUDDY!
I think I actually remember one game in which he forgot to remove one mule from the mineral line before the last incomplete trip. The guy must have felt really shitty watching that replay.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Did you seriously based of your conclusions of a betting site instead of actual knowledgeable people?
I agree.
A few people who know what they're talking about are generally right in what they say, even if a large mass of people who don't know what they're talking about disagree.
Some people have said casters may be betting on Soulkey just to keep hype up. While that may be true, I actually see it as Innovation maybe not being as invincible as it's currently portrayed. Innovation himself said that there have been holes in his play, it's just that we "newbies" don't see them.
I'm hoping Soulkey wins just because he's the underdog though.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Did you seriously based of your conclusions of a betting site instead of actual knowledgeable people?
Actually betting sites are often the best place to see the real chances of an outcome as they try the hardest to figure those out, as, you know, if they get them wrong they will actually incur a huge loss due to your "actual knowledgeable people" coming and betting large sums of money on the winning player.
Having something to loose doesn't change the fact that they know less then "actual knowledgeable people". A bronze player will never know as much as these casters even if he spends ages figuring it out.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Or maybe these guys just have more knowledge. You know, this being their job and all.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Did you seriously based of your conclusions of a betting site instead of actual knowledgeable people?
Actually betting sites are often the best place to see the real chances of an outcome as they try the hardest to figure those out, as, you know, if they get them wrong they will actually incur a huge loss due to your "actual knowledgeable people" coming and betting large sums of money on the winning player.
betting site odds are not set by the site themselves, they're based on what people are placing on the outcomes. that's why odds change
On May 31 2013 18:33 liberate71 wrote: I love how Innovation is like "Oh I havent done perfect games so far, I want do do perfect games"
OK BUDDY!
I think I actually remember one game in which he forgot to remove one mule from the mineral line before the last incomplete trip. The guy must have felt really shitty watching that replay.
Interesting that most of the Korean predictions are in favor of Soulkey. I tend to believe them more than random TL writers, who went with what the consensus on TL is at the moment. We'll see if Soulkey indeed manages to outmatch Innovation.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Holy crap, I never knew real money betting existed for SC2!!!
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
How can you possibly call it inept when the games haven't been played yet?
Here's a harsher example: If Roger Federer in his top form plays a player that is ranked number 210 in the world then predicting said player to win vs Federer is an inept prediction no matter the outcome as everything points towards a Federer victory.
I don't know if you heard, dawg, but soulkey isn't the 210th ranked Starcraft 2 player.
and upsets in tennis are much more rare than in Starcraft anyway.
That's why I said "a harsher example" In the Federer case the odds would be something like 1.01 for Federer and 25.00 for the other guy. Here as Soulkey is also pretty good it's only 1.37 vs 3.20. Still, if you had the opportunity to bet 10 dollars and would receive 20 dollars if your player won (2.00 vs 2.00 odds) you would be a fool not to bet on Bogus. Hence my surprise at the casters' choices.
So in short you think Soulkey is not as good as Bogus. You could say that instead of saying "well if the odds were 2.00 and 2.00 you would be fool not to bet on Bogus" The casters obviously think Soulkey is better. So the point stands: how can you know the predictions are inept if the games haven't even been played yet? You act as if Bogus being better is not a matter of opinion.
I think the GSL casters are forgetting that Flash plays a very similar style to Innovation, utilizing the constant push to wear down his opponents and with drops to distract them and put the out of position so his pushes can be even more lethal. When Soulkey and Flash went head to head, in the first group stage, Soulkey was destroyed 2-0. While Soulkey has gotten better over the one and a half month time span since, so has Innovation, and Innovation was already doing what Flash was doing, but better, stronger multi-tasking, better micro, pinpoint macro.
I'm sure Innovation knows about the holes in his gameplay and will do everything in his power to patch them up, if he can play just slightly safer and deny Soulkey from doing critical damage in the early game, then I feel like Innovation will take it in the mid and late game.
I guess the Korean casters think Soulkey is a favourite since Innovation was shaky towards early rush games from Symbol. I think if Innovation can last more than 12 minutes without taking too much economical damage, he will take the series.
If you remember well, there has been only one guy Innovation wanted to avoid since the beginning of this GSL. And guess what, it was Soulkey. So, if Innovation himself was scared of Soulkey, maybe there's a reason...
Q: How is your team reacting to you reaching the finals? A: The head coach and coaching staff seem to like it, but the reaction is surprisingly stoic.
Are all his team mates jealous?
if the rumors of STX being in danger of disbanding because of financial trouble are ture, Innovation definitely the only one guaranteed to be eating steak no matter what happens.
or it could just be that they know he's so good that they've just come to expect it.
That's certainly curious. I looked up STX's stock price and it's been all over the place this past year. There are recent rumors of being potentially acquired. Oh man, I hope their pro-gaming team won't be affected.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Did you seriously based of your conclusions of a betting site instead of actual knowledgeable people?
Actually betting sites are often the best place to see the real chances of an outcome as they try the hardest to figure those out, as, you know, if they get them wrong they will actually incur a huge loss due to your "actual knowledgeable people" coming and betting large sums of money on the winning player.
The odds are based around the number of people betting on player x, not around his chance to actually win.
Why does no one ask him why he changed his name from the much cooler Bogus to the totally lame and cliche Innovation?! It doesn't even fit his style of play as he seems to be striving more towards perfection than innovation!!
Lots of people thinking Soulkey can take it! Hoping they're right, absolutely loving his play right now. :D
So excited for these finals, I can't even describe it. Got no favourites this time, so I'm all for good games, and happy with who ever wins. Awesome season! Gogogo~
Even though predictions can never be 100% accurate, I like the thought process they had behind them and would agree whole heartedly. A lot of this series could come down to how often Innovation goes for triple orbital and if soulkey punishes him for it successfully.
Be interesting to see Innovation come with a more aggressive play style then he usually seems to use, but who knows how comfortable he'd be doing that. Maybe last can give him some ideas as he seemed a little better with pressure builds then Innovation, just to keep soulkey on his toes.
Either way this should be a great finals to watch, I just hope to see something creative out of these guys.
I think its hard to call because neither of these two are previous finalists or champions. You never know whos going to perform better with their nerves. That is going to be a major deciding factor.
I also think that Innovation has way too many games out there to study. Soulkey has a lot as well, but everyone knows innovations play, and that can really mess up terran more so than the other races; terran builds are easier to disrupt and are less adaptable.
even with that i still think Bogus will pull it out 4-3 or 4-2 though..hes too damn good.
On May 31 2013 22:01 Cereb wrote: Why does no one ask him why he changed his name from the much cooler Bogus to the totally lame and cliche Innovation?! It doesn't even fit his style of play as he seems to be striving more towards perfection than innovation!!
i'm german, though my english is pretty decent, i can't figure out what's meant by "copout"? i understand firebat gives no prediction, but if anyone could explain, i'd be happy! some kind of esport terminology?
On May 31 2013 22:54 Kiran wrote: i'm german, though my english is pretty decent, i can't figure out what's meant by "copout"? i understand firebat gives no prediction, but if anyone could explain, i'd be happy! some kind of esport terminology?
cop out Web definitions opt out: choose not to do something, as out of fear of failing;
FBH did not want to make an official prediction between Soulkey and Innovation.
It's interesting to see that almost everybody in the world sees Innovation as a winning machine that just stomps his opponents every time, and expect him to win the WCS Korea without much of a hassle... Except in Korea, where almost all the casters expect Soulkey to win.
Anyway, I don't have a favourite: I just hope the games will be as exceptional as the players that made it to the finals in what is arguably the hardest SC2 tournament in the world.
On May 31 2013 22:54 Kiran wrote: i'm german, though my english is pretty decent, i can't figure out what's meant by "copout"? i understand firebat gives no prediction, but if anyone could explain, i'd be happy! some kind of esport terminology?
Watch Dexter and you get the feel of it, but It's basically FBH not facing the difficulty and predicting the outcome like the GSL casters did with clear results.
On May 31 2013 23:04 Gni wrote: It's interesting to see that almost everybody in the world sees Innovation as a winning machine that just stomps his opponents every time, and expect him to win the WCS Korea without much of a hassle... Except in Korea, where almost all the casters expect Soulkey to win.
Anyway, I don't have a favourite: I just hope the games will be as exceptional as the players that made it to the finals in what is arguably the hardest SC2 tournament in the world.
Casters = hyping machine. They lied just to make the series seem closer than it will be. I really think innovation at the moment could play super safe behind 3 bunkers and siege tanks, let soulkey take 4 bases and still crush him later on.
Q: Your mindset going into the final? A: I wasn't able to show perfect play up to now. There were many engagements that I wasn't pleased with even in games I won. In the finals, I want to show perfect games.
Damn that's scary. Innovation is the closest player to perfection right now, so if he still has a progress margin, I don't think Soulkey even stand a chance.My prediction: 4-1 Innovation with the one loss being an early all-in.
Interesting to see the korean casters predictions. Maybe we in the west hold innovation higher than they do in Korea. Either way this might very well be the best GSL finals yet.
Q: How is your team reacting to you reaching the finals? A: The head coach and coaching staff seem to like it, but the reaction is surprisingly stoic.
Are all his team mates jealous?
if the rumors of STX being in danger of disbanding because of financial trouble are ture, Innovation definitely the only one guaranteed to be eating steak no matter what happens.
or it could just be that they know he's so good that they've just come to expect it.
That's certainly curious. I looked up STX's stock price and it's been all over the place this past year. There are recent rumors of being potentially acquired. Oh man, I hope their pro-gaming team won't be affected.
On May 31 2013 23:04 Gni wrote: It's interesting to see that almost everybody in the world sees Innovation as a winning machine that just stomps his opponents every time, and expect him to win the WCS Korea without much of a hassle... Except in Korea, where almost all the casters expect Soulkey to win.
Anyway, I don't have a favourite: I just hope the games will be as exceptional as the players that made it to the finals in what is arguably the hardest SC2 tournament in the world.
Casters = hyping machine. They lied just to make the series seem closer than it will be. I really think innovation at the moment could play super safe behind 3 bunkers and siege tanks, let soulkey take 4 bases and still crush him later on.
I love how people even claim they are lying. Maybe they know their stuff better then your average player?
On May 31 2013 23:04 Gni wrote: It's interesting to see that almost everybody in the world sees Innovation as a winning machine that just stomps his opponents every time, and expect him to win the WCS Korea without much of a hassle... Except in Korea, where almost all the casters expect Soulkey to win.
Anyway, I don't have a favourite: I just hope the games will be as exceptional as the players that made it to the finals in what is arguably the hardest SC2 tournament in the world.
Casters = hyping machine. They lied just to make the series seem closer than it will be. I really think innovation at the moment could play super safe behind 3 bunkers and siege tanks, let soulkey take 4 bases and still crush him later on.
I love how people even claim they are lying. Maybe they know their stuff better then your average player?
No in this case they are simply either lying or they arent very good.
I wonder if the casters are favouring Soulkey in order to create some tension? As it is most people see Innovation taking it. Not that Soulkey in any way isn't capable of doing it, I just don't see how he could be favoured.
Q: What are Innovation's strengths and weaknesses? A: He has solid fundamentals and is good at macro games. For weaknesses, as we saw from his series against Symbol, it seems like he can be shaken by early all-ins.
Soulkey, don't go pure roach, for the sake of our entertainment. Please.
On May 31 2013 23:04 Gni wrote: It's interesting to see that almost everybody in the world sees Innovation as a winning machine that just stomps his opponents every time, and expect him to win the WCS Korea without much of a hassle... Except in Korea, where almost all the casters expect Soulkey to win.
Anyway, I don't have a favourite: I just hope the games will be as exceptional as the players that made it to the finals in what is arguably the hardest SC2 tournament in the world.
Casters = hyping machine. They lied just to make the series seem closer than it will be. I really think innovation at the moment could play super safe behind 3 bunkers and siege tanks, let soulkey take 4 bases and still crush him later on.
I love how people even claim they are lying. Maybe they know their stuff better then your average player?
No in this case they are simply either lying or they arent very good.
Yup, clearly you know better then people that have been doing this as a job for ages.
On June 01 2013 00:21 Rjlraymond wrote: I wonder if the casters are favouring Soulkey in order to create some tension? As it is most people see Innovation taking it. Not that Soulkey in any way isn't capable of doing it, I just don't see how he could be favoured.
I think the important thing to note is that FBH said it best with game 1 being a deciding factor. I agree that if Soulkey plays proper mind games then he wins this series. A strong prepared all in on Star Station can really mess with Innovation and rattle him a bit. Open the games up a bit for 2 and 3. I think as long as Soulkey has builds centered around certain maps to rattle Innovation he can really take this.
But if game 1 is just a standard game, it will allow Innovation the time to get comfortable in the hot seat and ease out the series 4-2. But obviously we will have to wait and see!
On May 31 2013 23:04 Gni wrote: It's interesting to see that almost everybody in the world sees Innovation as a winning machine that just stomps his opponents every time, and expect him to win the WCS Korea without much of a hassle... Except in Korea, where almost all the casters expect Soulkey to win.
Anyway, I don't have a favourite: I just hope the games will be as exceptional as the players that made it to the finals in what is arguably the hardest SC2 tournament in the world.
Casters = hyping machine. They lied just to make the series seem closer than it will be. I really think innovation at the moment could play super safe behind 3 bunkers and siege tanks, let soulkey take 4 bases and still crush him later on.
I love how people even claim they are lying. Maybe they know their stuff better then your average player?
No in this case they are simply either lying or they arent very good.
I wonder how much Starcraft you must watch to be able to say that about the casters of the most prestigious Starcraft 2 tournament in the world.
People are only half right about bookmakers odds. Yes the market ultimately decides the price but starting points must be set and in low liquidity markets the line does not approach the true market odds always. Sc2 is likely an extremely low volume market and therefore that price is not dictated by the punters by as large a degree as say the superbowl or champions league final. Also remeber just like aligulac the market even when low volume tends to be better at predicting outcomes than even individual experts. That is why there are so few professional sports bettors. In general the lower the market volume wise the less accurate the prediction. However if innovation is so favoured on pinnacle and people strongly disagree and defer to the experts they should be willing to bet large sums on soulkey.
makes me feel like korean casters arent hyping innovation as much as tastosis is but yeah it will be a very close fight thats for sure, I say 4-3 innovation because I think we have enough zerg GSL champions for a while
I really hope this series doesn't come down to Soulkey roach all-inning in three or four games or something. Terrible from an entertainment perspective. However, I've never found Soulkey entertaining. He seems to really just like to turtle up to an insane degree and get an unkillable army. Innovation, on the other hand, is a bit more dramatic and has a flair to his games that I really like.
Anyway, I'm gonna go with 4-3 Innovation but I can see where the casters came up with their predictions.
On June 01 2013 02:02 Darkhoarse wrote: I really hope this series doesn't come down to Soulkey roach all-inning in three or four games or something. Terrible from an entertainment perspective. However, I've never found Soulkey entertaining. He seems to really just like to turtle up to an insane degree and get an unkillable army. Innovation, on the other hand, is a bit more dramatic and has a flair to his games that I really like.
Anyway, I'm gonna go with 4-3 Innovation but I can see where the casters came up with their predictions.
I guess you never saw his TvZ. The games they played in Proleague had Soulkey doing Baneling runby's all game long, in the first game he managed to deny the 4th and eventually safely transition into hive wich allowed him to kill Innovation. The 2nd game had him overcommit too much into these things, hence why he was stuck in lair tech. He did manage to snipe the third but wasn't ready for the inevitable counter push.
On June 01 2013 02:02 Darkhoarse wrote: I really hope this series doesn't come down to Soulkey roach all-inning in three or four games or something. Terrible from an entertainment perspective. However, I've never found Soulkey entertaining. He seems to really just like to turtle up to an insane degree and get an unkillable army. Innovation, on the other hand, is a bit more dramatic and has a flair to his games that I really like.
Anyway, I'm gonna go with 4-3 Innovation but I can see where the casters came up with their predictions.
I can't say it for sure cause I've not watched all of them, but the ZvT's I watched Soukey were far from turtle mode. Against Innovation on Proleague (last week, I think?) he did a lot of bling runby, for example. Twas a really good game.
Q: What are Innovation's strengths and weaknesses? A: He has solid fundamentals and is good at macro games. For weaknesses, as we saw from his series against Symbol, it seems like he can be shaken by early all-ins.
Soulkey, don't go pure roach, for the sake of our entertainment. Please.
On May 31 2013 14:20 Dreamer.T wrote: I'm surprised that Soulkey has more of an edge with the GSL casters than Innovation. They do however bring up valid points.
and I think a lot of you guys underestimate how good SK really is. ._. He's very well-rounded and I'm sure he's going to give Bogus a good run for his money because SK can play a lot of different styles.
I'm surprised the Korean casters are favoring Soulkey here. I'd be really surprised if Soulkey can take more than 2 games off of Innovation. I'd say 4-1 Innovation, ezpz. Bring on the games, should be a really high level TvZ, and I'm so glad we don't have to endure another ZvZ final.
Both players have really good records in proleague and just from games where they play each other they look evenly matched I think its impossible to predict. Innovation is not as big a favorite as the hype is predicting. Soulkey said innovation looked weak to early all ins so I think soulkey is going to use at least a few of them, and if terran does not spot a baneling all in its pretty much game I mean its impossible to hold without early bunkers.
On June 01 2013 02:02 Darkhoarse wrote: I really hope this series doesn't come down to Soulkey roach all-inning in three or four games or something. Terrible from an entertainment perspective. However, I've never found Soulkey entertaining. He seems to really just like to turtle up to an insane degree and get an unkillable army. Innovation, on the other hand, is a bit more dramatic and has a flair to his games that I really like.
Anyway, I'm gonna go with 4-3 Innovation but I can see where the casters came up with their predictions.
You're clearly thinking of a different Zerg.
edit: If any Zerg has a chance of taking down Innovation in macro games, I believe it would be SoulKey. Not only that, but his style create very, very good games. SoulKey will undoubtedly be able to take every game past Innovation's 13:30 marine / mine / medivac parade. If we get a 4-3 or even a 4-2 either way, I think we could potentially have the best GSL finals in history.
However, if Innovation has got a solid grasp on countering SoulKey's typical constant ling / bling counter attacks and if SoulKey doesn't figure out a way to get hive tech on 4+ bases without dieing to constant drops, we could be in for a 4-1 or 4-0 victory from Innovation in games that look really close but end the same, with SoulKey falling apart to Innovation's multitasking around the 20-25 minute mark.
I can't really see SoulKey taking it 4-1 or 4-0, but I suppose it's possible if SoulKey gets some good baneling hits or comes up with a new way of holding 4+ bases vs mass bio drops while still being able to do his counter attacks.
Either way, I doubt we'll see more than 1 all-in from either player, and if it is done it will be more as a 'make sure you're scouting' sort of thing. SoulKey's scouting is impeccable so I highly doubt he'd die to any sort of timing attack, Innovation might lose a game to a good timing attack if he auto-pilot 3cc's without scouting thoroughly.
Why are they saying FireBatHero copped out? He said Innovation will win regardless! I guess it's just that he didn't agree to giving an exact scoreline, but I don't know that's really a cop out. :Þ
On May 31 2013 15:05 IcedBacon wrote: Yeah surprised the majority predicted a Soulkey win. Innovation has this, he even took the standard game played in Proleague the other day.
I dont think you can compare the Proleague match with the GSL Finals.
Guess there will be allot of mindgames involved.
Actually you can. Kespa players view Pro League matches like a GSL Final. Every win is important in Pro League and the players study their opponents extensively to obtain the win.
On May 31 2013 15:05 IcedBacon wrote: Yeah surprised the majority predicted a Soulkey win. Innovation has this, he even took the standard game played in Proleague the other day.
I dont think you can compare the Proleague match with the GSL Finals.
Guess there will be allot of mindgames involved.
Actually you can. Kespa players view Pro League matches like a GSL Final. Every win is important in Pro League and the players study their opponents extensively to obtain the win.
All-kill format makes this preparation a lot more difficult though.
Here are the predictions from the English casters for GSL
Artosis: INoVation victory Its the best Terran and the best Zerg fighting it out. Currently I can see that nobody can stop INoVation. But Soulkey is boiling hot. I say INoVation wins 4-3.
AcerKaoru: INoVation victory INoVation will win 4-2. He is looking invincible recently, and cannot be stopped. In a best of seven I think Soulkey will be overwhelmed. In ProLeague, Soulkey took one game off INoVation. In GSL, only Soulkey is the player who could take the title away from INoVation. GSL will see another Terran champion resurrect.
Khaldor: INoVation victory The winner of the upcoming tournament will be the first ever Heart of the Swarm champion. Many people are predicting an INoVation victory. But Soulkey has shown his strong fundamentals in GSL, and simultaneously show his skills in ProLeague. I see an INoVation victory 4-2 and become the first HotS GSL champion. I predict the series going to the full length. Either way, a clash between these two pro-athletes in SC2 will provide the best experience for the fans.
Wolf: INoVation victory INoVation will win 4-1. INoVation has shown a powerful, stinging and swift reaction rate and flexible macro-management. Whoever he faces, INoVation's scouts know their timings, the late tech choices, knowing the background of the circumstances and making movements without hesitation. "Netizens" have been calling him a robot. But INoVation is a human just like us. And based upon that mistake, Soulkey can take one game off INoVation.
DoA: INoVation victory My thoughts are that INoVation will win 4-1. Soulkey is a strong player, but INoVation is too dominant in the late-game. INoVation will win, but it will go for a long duration.
This really shows the disparity in opinions between foreigners and Koreans. Koreans seem to favor Soulkey, while foreigners see INoVation as some invincible robot who cannot be halted. Truly a fight between the immovable object and the unstoppable force.
*Oh, and the translation was done fairly quickly, and may have a few mistakes here and there, but I'm confident I got almost all of this correct*
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
Next time I'm basing my predictions on the Korean casters. These guys know the ins and outs of the teams, players and coaches in further depth than any foreigner would ever know, and they probably saw something in Soulkey the foreign community missed, or let INoVation cloud over.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
So even after the Korean caster's predictions have been quite accurate, you still think they are inept for making the predictions?
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
Of course it's more likely that the player who leads the series 3-0 wins the match, but that doesn't change the fact that the GSL casters weren't blinded by the wild Innovation hype and proved that they actually know their shit pretty damn well. You can bring in mathemathical terms all you want, those are the facts.
Seeing Innovation lose so easily to Symbol's rushes in the semi-finals when he went for triple orbitals, I think Soulkey will bring similar must-kill builds in about two games. I think INnovation as well, will look to use some early game tactics in a couple of games instead of standard triple orbital strategies. The key battlefield is game one on Star Station. If that maps plays out normally without any particular strategies on either side, I think Innovation will win the series, regardless of whether or not he wins game one. The title of first Korean HotS champion should mean a lot to both players, and I think it will be a very helpful match for both of them.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
what in the world ar you talking about?
THM called the Korean casters "inept" for predicting Soulkey based on the odds on a betting site and his opinion of Innovation being the superior player. Soulkey then proceeded to win the series, proving that the predictions of Soulkey winning weren't so inept after all.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
Of course it's more likely that the player who leads the series 3-0 wins the match, but that doesn't change the fact that the GSL casters weren't blinded by the wild Innovation hype and proved that they actually know their shit pretty damn well. You can bring in mathemathical terms all you want, those are the facts.
so when i flip a coin and it lands on tails for soulkey, that proves that the coin made a good prediction and that it knows what its talking about? and if the casters has a 1% prediction rate success they know what they are talking about the 1% they get it "right"? thats not how it works, THESE ARE NOT THE FACTS. you dont go "well bogus won game 7, the korean casters are utterly clueless and thats a fact you cant change" the about 57% of the time he would have and "the casters proved they know their shit pretty damn well" the 43% of the time soulkey wins it, this is insanity.
"Soulkey then proceeded to win the series, proving that the predictions of Soulkey winning weren't so inept after all." they were inept predictions.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
So even after the Korean caster's predictions have been quite accurate, you still think they are inept for making the predictions?
they werent accurate... they were way, way off. the results were about 14% chance for bogus 4-0, about 21% for bogus 4-1, about 16 for 4-2, and about 20 for 4-3. soulkey for 4-3 was probably the fifth most likely option at about 13%, and 4-2 the sixth at 7%
LOL reading this thread is so good after Soulkey won. Not just the GOM casters but the other korean casters as well were predicting a soulkey win. They're all so bad and just extremely lucky :p.
On June 02 2013 19:05 NicksonReyes wrote: LOL reading this thread is so good after Soulkey won. Not just the GOM casters but the other korean casters as well were predicting a soulkey win. They're all so bad and just extremely lucky :p.
you really make it sound like youre being sarcastic about the bad and extremely lucky bad i cant be sure. but yeah thats correct, its almost guaranteed to have been a terrible prediction
I don't understand your argument, Veroleg. The Korean casters mostly predicted SK to win even though almost everyone else thought he would lose, and then SK won. What's wrong with that?
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
Of course it's more likely that the player who leads the series 3-0 wins the match, but that doesn't change the fact that the GSL casters weren't blinded by the wild Innovation hype and proved that they actually know their shit pretty damn well. You can bring in mathemathical terms all you want, those are the facts.
so when i flip a coin and it lands on tails for soulkey, that proves that the coin made a good prediction and that it knows what its talking about? and if the casters has a 1% prediction rate success they know what they are talking about the 1% they get it "right"? thats not how it works, THESE ARE NOT THE FACTS. you dont go "well bogus won game 7, the korean casters are utterly clueless and thats a fact you cant change" the about 57% of the time he would have and "the casters proved they know their shit pretty damn well" the 43% of the time soulkey wins it, this is insanity.
"Soulkey then proceeded to win the series, proving that the predictions of Soulkey winning weren't so inept after all." they were inept predictions.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
So even after the Korean caster's predictions have been quite accurate, you still think they are inept for making the predictions?
they werent accurate... they were way, way off. the results were about 14% chance for bogus 4-0, about 21% for bogus 4-1, about 16 for 4-2, and about 20 for 4-3. soulkey for 4-3 was probably the fifth most likely option at about 13%, and 4-2 the sixth at 7%
People in the foreign community have grown so attached to Innovation that they have become unreasonably quick to dismiss other players' chances. The Korean commentators made a prediction, not based on stats but based on what they see in the two players' styles and how they think the two would clash - they have so much more knowledge of the game; they understand it on another level and they know the players much more intimately than most people in the foreign community. These predictions weren't meant to be the most likely outcomes, statistically, they were meant as the most likely outcomes ignoring statistics, because statistics and maths can only tell you so much about a Starcraft match between two players of different races, when the human factor is involved.
The Korean casters predicted Soulkey to win because they thought his chances were better. He ended up proving them right when Innovation choked and he didn't. Maths cannot account for such factors, which is why calling their predictions inept because the statistics say otherwise is stupid.
Edit: I guess I don't really understand your viewpoint. Saying "It was almost guaranteed to be a bad prediction" just makes no sense in this situation. They predicted something most people didn't think would happen, it happened, and now people are criticising them because the outcome was unlikely? I mean come on
Some people are getting too serious about predictions. Just be nice and congratulate whoever got the prediction right. I don't see a point in making serious argument over it.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
Of course it's more likely that the player who leads the series 3-0 wins the match, but that doesn't change the fact that the GSL casters weren't blinded by the wild Innovation hype and proved that they actually know their shit pretty damn well. You can bring in mathemathical terms all you want, those are the facts.
so when i flip a coin and it lands on tails for soulkey, that proves that the coin made a good prediction and that it knows what its talking about? and if the casters has a 1% prediction rate success they know what they are talking about the 1% they get it "right"? thats not how it works, THESE ARE NOT THE FACTS. you dont go "well bogus won game 7, the korean casters are utterly clueless and thats a fact you cant change" the about 57% of the time he would have and "the casters proved they know their shit pretty damn well" the 43% of the time soulkey wins it, this is insanity.
"Soulkey then proceeded to win the series, proving that the predictions of Soulkey winning weren't so inept after all." they were inept predictions.
Surprisingly inept predictions from the casters who are supposed to be knowledgeable, or maybe as some people said they are just trying to hype things up.
Hey, how is your prediction doing right now? Especially compared to the Korean casters?
LOL it's called variance. Something most people on TL have no knowledge of. It was much more likely Innovation wins 4-0 than Soulkey wins 4-3 before game 4.
So even after the Korean caster's predictions have been quite accurate, you still think they are inept for making the predictions?
they werent accurate... they were way, way off. the results were about 14% chance for bogus 4-0, about 21% for bogus 4-1, about 16 for 4-2, and about 20 for 4-3. soulkey for 4-3 was probably the fifth most likely option at about 13%, and 4-2 the sixth at 7%
People in the foreign community have grown so attached to Innovation that they have become unreasonably quick to dismiss other players' chances. The Korean commentators made a prediction, not based on stats but based on what they see in the two players' styles and how they think the two would clash - they have so much more knowledge of the game; they understand it on another level and they know the players much more intimately than most people in the foreign community. These predictions weren't meant to be the most likely outcomes, statistically, they were meant as the most likely outcomes ignoring statistics, because statistics and maths can only tell you so much about a Starcraft match between two players of different races, when the human factor is involved.
The Korean casters predicted Soulkey to win because they thought his chances were better. He ended up proving them right when Innovation choked and he didn't. Maths cannot account for such factors, which is why calling their predictions inept because the statistics say otherwise is stupid.
Edit: I guess I don't really understand your viewpoint. Saying "It was almost guaranteed to be a bad prediction" just makes no sense in this situation. They predicted something most people didn't think would happen, it happened, and now people are criticising them because the outcome was unlikely? I mean come on
how did the foreign community dismiss other players chances? the korean commentators made a prediction, you or nobody knows why, dont claim you do. they may hve made it based on what they thought most likely, or leaning towards the underdog to do anything to help it seem more close so as to help the hype to help their company, as it doesnt really matter if theyre right or wrong. or it could be some other reason. they dont have inherently more knowledge of the game, they only commentate and play it. they werent handpicked because of big understanding-potential. they do know the players more intimately. what do you mean they werent meant to be the most likely outcomes statistically? what do you mean they were meant to be the most likely outcomes ignoring statistics? why would you ignore statistics? everything can be told by statistics and math, you dont seem to understand what that is. theres no human factor
"The Korean casters predicted Soulkey to win because they thought his chances were better. He ended up proving them right when Innovation choked and he didn't. Maths cannot account for such factors, which is why calling their predictions inept because the statistics say otherwise is stupid. " you dont know why they listed soulkey to win. but lets say they did it because of thinking he was the favourite. that equation is beyond insanity, how can you see that? and didnt you read my last post? so when a 31% hits, anybody predicting it to hit is proved that they picked the right side and that their analysis is sound? if a 3sided coin predicted a soulkey win how is that 3sided coin proved to be a good analysist as well as a superior analysist to the profitable bettor who claimed bogus was the favourite? maths can account for such factors. and claiming a coins prediction isnt inept is stupid, i have no clue how youre telling me its not.
"Edit: I guess I don't really understand your viewpoint. Saying "It was almost guaranteed to be a bad prediction" just makes no sense in this situation. They predicted something most people didn't think would happen, it happened, and now people are criticising them because the outcome was unlikely? I mean come on" how doesnt it make any sense? soulkey probably wins in the 35-41% region of maps against someone like bogus, and they claimed soulkey was the favourite for this match. what exactly is so difficult and hard to understand?
On June 02 2013 19:43 Orek wrote: Some people are getting too serious about predictions. Just be nice and congratulate whoever got the prediction right. I don't see a point in making serious argument over it.
i like soulkey more and had bet on soulkey. they didnt get their analysis right while people all over the place are claiming they did which is very frustrating, theyre also using crazy logic, wording and silly ideas which is making me even more frustrated
-Large parts of the foreign community expected easy 4-0/4-1 sweeps by Innovation because he's considered "The best player in the world", the "best player ever", the "best TvZ player on the planet by far" or some variation of those. Soulkey was not given a fair chance; look at the comments in the Finals Preview or in the intital pages of the LR thread. People accept that Soulkey is a good player, but they've either been blinded by Innovation's play, or by Tastosis' mad hype.
-Maths cannot predict whether or not Innovation will choke in his first ever individual league finals. You're welcome to put maths on a pedestal all you want, but statistics will never tell you the whole story.
-If you want to believe that everyone who didn't predict Innovation to win was trying to make things seem more excited, then you're more than welcome to believe so. I think that's a very far-fetched explanation. For one, Gisado predicted Innovation to win, and FBH wasn't sure.
-Yes, Korean commentators are known for being more knowledgable than most foreign casters. They know things most people don't, and their analysis is generally considered superior to foreign casters'. And of course they were handpicked because they have superior understanding of the game. That's why they commentate the big leagues. Why else would you hire a commentator?
-What you seem to not understand is that these predictions (nor mine) weren't made with an equation, or statistics, in mind. Statistics don't tell you the whole story - they disregard the human factor (which does exist in nerve issues, tilting after a loss etc.) which means you need to take statistics with a grain of salt when using them for predicting a big match like this one. You seem to think the Korean commentators flipped a coin and gave their predictions based on heads/tails, and believe it or not, I don't think that's the case. There were things that pointed towards a Soulkey victory (i talked a little more in-depth about this in the Finals Preview; one of the things being Innovation's insane greed and how he died twice to Symbol's all-ins in the Ro4), despite statistics saying he should lose based on the record of his past matches.
-"soulkey probably wins in the 35-41% region of maps against someone like bogus"; what do you base this on? They've played twice in HotS outside the GSL, and they were 1-1 in maps. Naturally, their winrates in the matchup factor in, but whether or not Innovation can beat down Hyun or Roro shouldn't matter too much when he's playing someone else (in this case SK) who has proven himself their superior in the match-up.
There's human factor. If there is none, then just like what statistics say, Innovation should have won in that Bo7. Innovation is the favorite in the match-up, because that's what statistics say, so they didn't predict Soulkey would win because of "thinking that Soulkey is the favorite". And they provided good points as to why they thought that Soulkey would win over Innovation so you can't say no one knows why they predicted Soulkey to win. Read them. Those are why.
"-Large parts of the foreign community expected easy 4-0/4-1 sweeps by Innovation because he's considered "The best player in the world", the "best player ever", the "best TvZ player on the planet by far" or some variation of those. Soulkey was not given a fair chance; look at the comments in the Finals Preview or in the intital pages of the LR thread. People accept that Soulkey is a good player, but they've either been blinded by Innovation's play, or by Tastosis' mad hype." yes
"-Maths cannot predict whether or not Innovation will choke in his first ever individual league finals. You're welcome to put maths on a pedestal all you want, but statistics will never tell you the whole story. " yes math explains everything. the math of the stuff everything is made up of decides however he acts. statistics will never lie im interested to hear how you built your estimated probabillities of how likely bogus was to choke?
"-If you want to believe that everyone who didn't predict Innovation to win was trying to make things seem more excited, then you're more than welcome to believe so. I think that's a very far-fetched explanation. For one, Gisado predicted Innovation to win, and FBH wasn't sure. " if you want to claim that you know the reason, youre not welcome to do so. i have no clue where you got it from that i believe or want to believe that from, please specify. what gain do they have to attempt correct predictions? and what gain do they have to help make it seem like theres as little of a skill difference as possible? what has gisados and fbhs prediction got to do with helping your point?
"-Yes, Korean commentators are known for being more knowledgable than most foreign casters. They know things most people don't, and their analysis is generally considered superior to foreign casters'. And of course they were handpicked because they have superior understanding of the game. That's why they commentate the big leagues. Why else would you hire a commentator?" what do they nkow that most people dont? of course thats why they were handpicked? i thought commentators are handpicked for the most crowdatracting potential. have you seen the complete roster of foreign commentators? theres about 2 that you could make an argument for being handpicked for knowledge. of course those two also have the crowd atracting factor as well...
"-What you seem to not understand is that these predictions (nor mine) weren't made with an equation, or statistics, in mind." so youre saying your estimations were made up from nowhere, they are completely random? im not sure if i would go that far, but i guess i can buy it.
"Statistics don't tell you the whole story - they disregard the human factor (which does exist in nerve issues, tilting after a loss etc.)" statistics dont disregard anything, they tell you exactly what they say
"which means you need to take statistics with a grain of salt when using them for predicting a big match like this one." why do you need to do that?
"You seem to think the Korean commentators flipped a coin and gave their predictions based on heads/tails, and believe it or not, I don't think that's the case." please specify where i seem to think that
"-"soulkey probably wins in the 35-41% region of maps against someone like bogus"; what do you base this on?" you can quickly make a good estimate based from the odds on pinnacle. 35-41 is a pretty large gap and it would be very unlikely to be outside that region
"They've played twice in HotS outside the GSL, and they were 1-1 in maps. Naturally, their winrates in the matchup factor in, but whether or not Innovation can beat down Hyun or Roro" whether or not he can beat? what exactly is that supposed to mean? because it was ever a question to anyone whether or not he had a winrate vs someone of hyun or roros skill of above absolute 0%? what exactly do you mean with that phrasing, where are you going with it and what are you trying to accomplish?
"shouldn't matter too much when he's playing someone else (in this case SK) who has proven himself their superior in the match-up." how has he proven himself to be superior?
On June 02 2013 21:11 NicksonReyes wrote: There's human factor. If there is none, then just like what statistics say, Innovation should have won in that Bo7. Innovation is the favorite in the match-up, because that's what statistics say, so they didn't predict Soulkey would win because of "thinking that Soulkey is the favorite". And they provided good points as to why they thought that Soulkey would win over Innovation so you can't say no one knows why they predicted Soulkey to win. Read them. Those are why.
statistics say bogus would have won 100%? didnt they predict soulkey would win because hes the favourite? you sound like you have proof of what their reasons were. i dont know why you are showing me the proof by telling me to read an article though
Please show me the formula for how to calculate how bad Innovation will choke in his first GSL Grand Finals. Go ahead, I'll wait.
As for the rest of your post, it's incoherent and I'll admit I have no idea how to approach that mess. I'll attempt to explain my viewpoint simply: statistics tell you the story of what has happened, but not necessarily of what will happen in a game like Starcraft where nerves, preparation, body condition, amount of sleep prior to the finals etc. all play important roles. In Starcraft, equations cannot reliably predict matches; there are too many variables for an equation to reasonably predict anything.
There are ways to predict a match, more reliably than with statistics I might add, that do not involve the use of statistics. Crazy, I know.
On June 02 2013 19:05 NicksonReyes wrote: LOL reading this thread is so good after Soulkey won. Not just the GOM casters but the other korean casters as well were predicting a soulkey win. They're all so bad and just extremely lucky :p.
you really make it sound like youre being sarcastic about the bad and extremely lucky bad i cant be sure. but yeah thats correct, its almost guaranteed to have been a terrible prediction
"Almost guarenteed" is such a flawed argument. It matters not what the stats were or how likely it was that innovation would win. These casters predicted Soulkey to win and they were right.
This thread has turned into: Veroleg gets mad that Koreans have more predictive spirit than him and lashes back with vague claims of statistical awareness. I think it's really interesting and noteworthy how much more accurate the Korean casters were! I wish I understood Korean, I'd love to watch those guys cast.
On June 03 2013 01:12 Zealously wrote: Please show me the formula for how to calculate how bad Innovation will choke in his first GSL Grand Finals. Go ahead, I'll wait.
you do it by looking inside his head and locate the positions of everything and what they are, then use the knowledge and apply it to whatever the situation at hand is. not by making up a number. hint: it wasnt 100%. you told me math and statistics cant explain choking, the "human factor" or whatever. i said it can. again, do you want to dispute that or do you surrender? ill wait
On June 03 2013 01:12 Zealously wrote:As for the rest of your post, it's incoherent and I'll admit I have no idea how to approach that mess.
i responded to each of your points very clearly. and judging by you being unable to respond to any of the points, it has indications that it was good.
On June 03 2013 01:12 Zealously wrote:I'll attempt to explain my viewpoint simply: statistics tell you the story of what has happened, but not necessarily of what will happen
i dont understand, why would statistics tell you what will happen? thats not its job
On June 03 2013 01:12 Zealously wrote:equations cannot reliably predict matches; there are too many variables for an equation to reasonably predict anything.
they can do and does whatever the value of the information is. one uses it to judge probabillities. the more information you have and the more accurate and the better you are at using it, the more accurate you can be with your estimates
On June 03 2013 01:12 Zealously wrote:There are ways to predict a match, more reliably than with statistics I might add, that do not involve the use of statistics. Crazy, I know.
yeah thats pretty crazy. what exactly do you think that you do when you go back and use previous occurances of all sorts to estimate probabillities?
On June 02 2013 19:05 NicksonReyes wrote: LOL reading this thread is so good after Soulkey won. Not just the GOM casters but the other korean casters as well were predicting a soulkey win. They're all so bad and just extremely lucky :p.
you really make it sound like youre being sarcastic about the bad and extremely lucky bad i cant be sure. but yeah thats correct, its almost guaranteed to have been a terrible prediction
"Almost guarenteed" is such a flawed argument. It matters not what the stats were or how likely it was that innovation would win. These casters predicted Soulkey to win and they were right.
no its a fact that its virtually impossible that soulkey was the favourite. if he wasnt the favourite it was not a correct estimation. they had about a 31% winpercentage on that prediction. thats way into wrong territory.
On June 02 2013 19:05 NicksonReyes wrote: LOL reading this thread is so good after Soulkey won. Not just the GOM casters but the other korean casters as well were predicting a soulkey win. They're all so bad and just extremely lucky :p.
you really make it sound like youre being sarcastic about the bad and extremely lucky bad i cant be sure. but yeah thats correct, its almost guaranteed to have been a terrible prediction
"Almost guarenteed" is such a flawed argument. It matters not what the stats were or how likely it was that innovation would win. These casters predicted Soulkey to win and they were right.
no, they had about a 31% winpercentage on that prediction. thats way into wrong territory.
On June 03 2013 01:43 sparklyresidue wrote: This thread has turned into: Veroleg gets mad that Koreans have more predictive spirit than him and lashes back with vague claims of statistical awareness. I think it's really interesting and noteworthy how much more accurate the Korean casters were! I wish I understood Korean, I'd love to watch those guys cast.
interesting. id love to hear more about this predictive spirit. what is it and what does it do? yeah, its so vague nobody has even attempted a response! do you wonder about that wonderfully genius coin that predicts ALL of the gsl matches ever played right EXACTLY 50% of the time? you truly must be worshipping it at night if you admire the korean casters for their 31% success rate.
Eh you guys should really stop arguing about this. You can introduce a biasing factor relating to the chance of losing several games in a row (a tilt factor) but it's not really necessary. Besides. Only one caster actually got the prediction correct. The rest were as wrong as you were.
There are two ways to argue. You can bring solid, clear arguments that attempt to disprove whatever it is you argue against, or you can turn your weaker arguments into a convoluted mess that is very difficult to break apart and respond to properly. Your posts fall in the second category, and I'm not willing nor able to spend the time needed to dissect your posts and try to make you understand my viewpoint in this case. I'll just point out that statistics got the GSL finals wrong and bid you a good day/evening and politely step away from this subject.
On June 01 2013 23:49 Incognoto wrote: It's so amazing how the GSL's casters predictions were actually insanely accurate.. o_o mad respect for them.
If you look at their recent results against one another they're pretty even though. To me it wasn't some marketing ploy as Waxy put it. The games might have been one-sided and not as brouhaha as many would have liked it, but at the end of the day they were still pretty even.
On June 01 2013 10:10 PhoenixVoid wrote: Here are the predictions from the English casters for GSL
Artosis: INoVation victory Its the best Terran and the best Zerg fighting it out. Currently I can see that nobody can stop INoVation. But Soulkey is boiling hot. I say INoVation wins 4-3.
AcerKaoru: INoVation victory INoVation will win 4-2. He is looking invincible recently, and cannot be stopped. In a best of seven I think Soulkey will be overwhelmed. In ProLeague, Soulkey took one game off INoVation. In GSL, only Soulkey is the player who could take the title away from INoVation. GSL will see another Terran champion resurrect.
Khaldor: INoVation victory The winner of the upcoming tournament will be the first ever Heart of the Swarm champion. Many people are predicting an INoVation victory. But Soulkey has shown his strong fundamentals in GSL, and simultaneously show his skills in ProLeague. I see an INoVation victory 4-2 and become the first HotS GSL champion. I predict the series going to the full length. Either way, a clash between these two pro-athletes in SC2 will provide the best experience for the fans.
Wolf: INoVation victory INoVation will win 4-1. INoVation has shown a powerful, stinging and swift reaction rate and flexible macro-management. Whoever he faces, INoVation's scouts know their timings, the late tech choices, knowing the background of the circumstances and making movements without hesitation. "Netizens" have been calling him a robot. But INoVation is a human just like us. And based upon that mistake, Soulkey can take one game off INoVation.
DoA: INoVation victory My thoughts are that INoVation will win 4-1. Soulkey is a strong player, but INoVation is too dominant in the late-game. INoVation will win, but it will go for a long duration.
This really shows the disparity in opinions between foreigners and Koreans. Koreans seem to favor Soulkey, while foreigners see INoVation as some invincible robot who cannot be halted. Truly a fight between the immovable object and the unstoppable force.
*Oh, and the translation was done fairly quickly, and may have a few mistakes here and there, but I'm confident I got almost all of this correct*
Take what they say with a grain of salt please. We already know how well Artosis is at predicting stuff. It's well documented like Mr. Kim Carrier. They might live and breath the game, but it doesn't mean they're all knowing.
Verolog, I understand and agree with your point that we can't conclude that the GOM casters' predictions were good purely on the basis that Soulkey won in the end. As it could of possibly been the case that innovation was actually more likely to win but due to variance the less likely player won.
However your arguments reads as "We can't conclude the predictions were good, therefore they were bad predictions. This is assertion that needs to be proven before stated as a fact.
On June 02 2013 19:03 Veroleg wrote:
"Soulkey then proceeded to win the series, proving that the predictions of Soulkey winning weren't so inept after all." they were inept predictions.
You assert that they were bad predictions, based on what are they inept. A prediction that is correct in hindsight is more likely to be good than the incorrect prediction, unless we have a specific reason to think that the correct prediction is bad.
they weren't accurate... they were way, way off. the results were about 14% chance for bogus 4-0, about 21% for bogus 4-1, about 16 for 4-2, and about 20 for 4-3. soulkey for 4-3 was probably the fifth most likely option at about 13%, and 4-2 the sixth at 7%
You say their predictions were inaccurate because they differed from the probabilities you listed. That would be true if those statistics represented the true probabilities of the different outcomes. I don't see how you can assert that the probabilities you listed are absolute considering they are based only on previous outcomes, and are expected to be inaccurate to a degree and to have limited predictive powers.
All we can tell from this thread is that the vast majority have no clue about basic probabilities and mathematics. We haven't learned anything about the casters predictions being inept or not or innovations ability compared to Soulkeys based on a 4-3 result. Of course this statement won't be understood by the majority.
The fact is, the Korean casters would get absolutely destroyed in a liquibet competition vs the Pinnacle betting market over long period of time betting on the GSL.
On June 03 2013 03:07 _SpiRaL_ wrote: All we can tell from this thread is that the vast majority have no clue about basic probabilities and mathematics. We haven't learned anything about the casters predictions being inept or not or innovations ability compared to Soulkeys based on a 4-3 result. Of course this statement won't be understood by the majority.
The fact is, the Korean casters would get absolutely destroyed in a liquibet competition vs the Pinnacle betting market over long period of time betting on the GSL.
You claim its a fact yet they just proved they know better then that silly betting site. Why is it so hard to understand that those korean casters simply know their stuff way more then the average person? They are doing it as a job for a reason.
So much false authority-appealing. Aligulac stats, and the bandwagon of Tastosis hyping InnoVation and predicting him to win, leads people to just say "InnoVation is obviously the better player". But they're just talking out their &*%. If they were Korean, listening to Korean casters, these same people would probably be saying, "Soulkey is obviously the better player".
Anyone who actually watched these two players play in ProLeague knew this could've gone either way, and there was certainly good reason to think Soulkey would win.
If you want to think you know the game and the players better than those "GOM caster noobs", because you looked at some stats and some Aligulac/sport-gambling-website predictions (pfffft), have at it.
To Veroleg and Spiral: One thing I take issue with, as Aphid pointed out, is that you are treating the betting site (or wherever you're getting your percentages) as the absolute truth. How can you be so sure that the GSL casters would be right 31% of the time? There is nothing that can actually predict the future. Betting sites are just another system, like the Korean casters are, and to determine which system is better one would generally check whose predictions are correct more often. The Korean casters' predictions were correct here, and unfortunately we don't really HAVE more samples to consider.
Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
On June 03 2013 12:36 pylonsalad wrote: Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
Please, show me the stats why it was not right when they said it. You of course have to take in account everything from nerves to preparation.
On June 03 2013 12:36 pylonsalad wrote: Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
In poker, the hands, the deck, and the probabilities are all certain. Knowing your hand, what's been drawn, and what your opponent might have based on tells, gives you a more accurate presentation of the percentages compared to Soulkey vs Innovation. Decks will most likely perform according to those probabilities. Players are far more unpredictable due to mental states, playstyles, and confidence. Aligulac only compares matchup trends and streaks. In high stakes games such as the Finals, much more is involved than just skill. It is difficult to make an argument based on statistics when those numbers can no way be believed to be close to complete. They might still be accurate, but they could also be inaccurate. The same way that some have argued that a prediction that turns out to be right might not be the "correct prediction" (correct here meaning most likely), an argument (in this case, the probability of Innovation winning) that turns out to be right might not be the "correct argument" because information was incomplete when it was made.
While the consensus was Innovation in the foreign scene, most Koreans were confident that Soulkey would win.
On June 03 2013 12:36 pylonsalad wrote: Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
Please, show me the stats why it was not right when they said it. You of course have to take in account everything from nerves to preparation.
umm... how do I show stats for nerves and preparation? These unknowns remain unknown and anyone who claims to know them are charlatans. Based on the stats of all games played, with an emphasis on more recent games, and even more emphasis on their respective TvZ stats, Innovation would be a moderate to heavy favorite. Of course, it is incomplete information, but starcraft, gambling, and life is played with incomplete information. You do the best with what you got. Predicting that Soulkey would win is simply a negative value bet.
On June 03 2013 12:36 pylonsalad wrote: Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
Please, show me the stats why it was not right when they said it. You of course have to take in account everything from nerves to preparation.
umm... how do I show stats for nerves and preparation? These unknowns remain unknown and anyone who claims to know them are charlatans. Based on the stats of all games played, with an emphasis on more recent games, and even more emphasis on their respective TvZ stats, Innovation would be a moderate to heavy favorite. Of course, it is incomplete information, but starcraft, gambling, and life is played with incomplete information. You do the best with what you got. Predicting that Soulkey would win is simply a negative value bet.
And what if those casters had more information then you or i? Once again, these people are doing this for a job, they simply know it way better. What if by their information it wasn't a negative value bet? People are so fast to decide that their personal info is completely right and that anything goes against it is wrong.
On June 03 2013 12:36 pylonsalad wrote: Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
Please, show me the stats why it was not right when they said it. You of course have to take in account everything from nerves to preparation.
umm... how do I show stats for nerves and preparation? These unknowns remain unknown and anyone who claims to know them are charlatans. Based on the stats of all games played, with an emphasis on more recent games, and even more emphasis on their respective TvZ stats, Innovation would be a moderate to heavy favorite. Of course, it is incomplete information, but starcraft, gambling, and life is played with incomplete information. You do the best with what you got. Predicting that Soulkey would win is simply a negative value bet.
Your problem is that you consider stuff like nerves and preparations unknowns that might just as well favour one player as the other. But there is no reason to assume that. Those casters might very well have insights we don't have. For example they might have heard from a teammate of innovation that he was very nervous beforehand. Or that soulkey made alot of progress in his practise games.
Aditionally it could also be based on previous games, for example some people just do better under pressure than others.
And that is all stuff that is not included in just the stats. It stays ridiculous that people are called inept for making correct predictions...
On June 03 2013 01:57 Zenbrez wrote: It shocks me that people like Veroleg actually defend themselves in situations like this.
whats shocking is your lack of arguments. there are none though since theres no faults in my logic, but dont act as if there is if you cant even try.
On June 03 2013 01:57 Zealously wrote: There are two ways to argue. You can bring solid, clear arguments that attempt to disprove whatever it is you argue against, or you can turn your weaker arguments into a convoluted mess that is very difficult to break apart and respond to properly. Your posts fall in the second category, and I'm not willing nor able to spend the time needed to dissect your posts and try to make you understand my viewpoint in this case. I'll just point out that statistics got the GSL finals wrong and bid you a good day/evening and politely step away from this subject.
theres many ways to handle an argument, you can be methodical and go through the points listed or you can start gibbering about how unclear and terrible (you would think something so obviously bad and faulty would be easily dismissable) someones arguments are the moment you run out of your own. i would ask you to clarify just what about my posts are so unclear and terrible but i suspect i wont be getting an answer. the statistics didnt get anything right or wrong, thats not what statistics do. i just told you that in my last posts
On June 03 2013 02:20 StarStruck wrote: Take what they say with a grain of salt please. We already know how well Artosis is at predicting stuff. It's well documented like Mr. Kim Carrier. They might live and breath the game, but it doesn't mean they're all knowing.
where has artosis estimation abillity been documented at?
On June 03 2013 02:39 Aphid wrote: However your arguments reads as "We can't conclude the predictions were good, therefore they were bad predictions. This is assertion that needs to be proven before stated as a fact.
i said that the predictions were almost guaranteed to be bad. pinnacle put soulkey at 39-41% per map. the amount of times theyve ever put it that off are absurd. that was the odds before the match started, it was shaped by the best bettors, and the odds the best bettors would be that off is even more absurd. then you can make some analysis to help refine ones estimations. what can yo come up with that spoke in soulkeys favour?
they weren't accurate... they were way, way off. the results were about 14% chance for bogus 4-0, about 21% for bogus 4-1, about 16 for 4-2, and about 20 for 4-3. soulkey for 4-3 was probably the fifth most likely option at about 13%, and 4-2 the sixth at 7%
You say their predictions were inaccurate because they differed from the probabilities you listed. That would be true if those statistics represented the true probabilities of the different outcomes. I don't see how you can assert that the probabilities you listed are absolute considering they are based only on previous outcomes, and are expected to be inaccurate to a degree and to have limited predictive powers.
i clearely asserted that they werent absolute. see those 4! "about"s in there? i didnt base them off of previous outcomes, thats not how you base how well someone will play off of.
On June 03 2013 03:07 _SpiRaL_ wrote: All we can tell from this thread is that the vast majority have no clue about basic probabilities and mathematics. We haven't learned anything about the casters predictions being inept or not or innovations ability compared to Soulkeys based on a 4-3 result. Of course this statement won't be understood by the majority.
yeah, i thought most at least had some idea about it since its so basic
On June 03 2013 03:07 _SpiRaL_ wrote: All we can tell from this thread is that the vast majority have no clue about basic probabilities and mathematics. We haven't learned anything about the casters predictions being inept or not or innovations ability compared to Soulkeys based on a 4-3 result. Of course this statement won't be understood by the majority.
The fact is, the Korean casters would get absolutely destroyed in a liquibet competition vs the Pinnacle betting market over long period of time betting on the GSL.
You claim its a fact yet they just proved they know better then that silly betting site. Why is it so hard to understand that those korean casters simply know their stuff way more then the average person? They are doing it as a job for a reason.
On June 03 2013 07:09 Leporello wrote: Anyone who actually watched these two players play in ProLeague knew this could've gone either way, and there was certainly good reason to think Soulkey would win.
If you want to think you know the game and the players better than those "GOM caster noobs", because you looked at some stats and some Aligulac/sport-gambling-website predictions (pfffft), have at it.
i would put my life on the line that if the predictions from the gom casters predicting soulkey as favourite were 100%honest they would lose money betting sc2. as i said earlier you dont claim a coin has any clue what its doing after getting 50% of its predictions on gsl winners right. the coin severely outperformed the casters in this match
On June 03 2013 07:14 slowbacontron wrote: To Veroleg and Spiral: One thing I take issue with, as Aphid pointed out, is that you are treating the betting site (or wherever you're getting your percentages) as the absolute truth.The Korean casters' predictions were correct here, and unfortunately we don't really HAVE more samples to consider.
if they were the truth then the truth sure moves around a whole lot. i specifically said they werent and spiral obviously knows that too. noone knows anything for certain, everything is probabillities. and i think we have plenty of prediction samples if one were to go look. im not sure about saved odds though
On June 03 2013 12:36 pylonsalad wrote: Anyone who plays poker would understand that Veroleg's argument is valid. Just because events proved a prediction to be right does not make it the correct bet to be made at the time. It is still simply a bad bet and they got lucky. I think the Korean casters were just being hipster. If they had to put real money down beforehand, I highly doubt they would bet on Soulkey.
In poker, the hands, the deck, and the probabilities are all certain. Knowing your hand, what's been drawn, and what your opponent might have based on tells, gives you a more accurate presentation of the percentages compared to Soulkey vs Innovation. Decks will most likely perform according to those probabilities. Players are far more unpredictable due to mental states, playstyles, and confidence. Aligulac only compares matchup trends and streaks. In high stakes games such as the Finals, much more is involved than just skill. It is difficult to make an argument based on statistics when those numbers can no way be believed to be close to complete. They might still be accurate, but they could also be inaccurate. The same way that some have argued that a prediction that turns out to be right might not be the "correct prediction" (correct here meaning most likely), an argument (in this case, the probability of Innovation winning) that turns out to be right might not be the "correct argument" because information was incomplete when it was made.
all games matter in different degrees, finals are exaggerated from the others. we have little to no insight into players mental state except in rare cases. when having no information, either one is just about as likely as the other to be the better one mentally. so this area affects probabillities very little. it affects it in the tiny way of less nervousness on both sides favours the better player, and a lot favours the worse. so comparing a match with little on the line vs a finals, a finals is on average a teeny bit more helpful to the worse player. unless one has pretty solid info on mental states, the fact of it being a final changes probabillities very little
On June 03 2013 12:54 lichter wrote:While the consensus was Innovation in the foreign scene, most Koreans were confident that Soulkey would win.
source?
On June 03 2013 15:12 Zenbrez wrote: The ridiculousness of some people in these forums baffle me.
our arguments are baffling, yet an apparent lack of counters
On June 03 2013 20:42 Sissors wrote: And that is all stuff that is not included in just the stats. It stays ridiculous that people are called inept for making correct predictions...
a coin has no iq, is it not intelligence wise, inept? yet it gets 50% of gsl matches correct. theyre not called inept for making "correct" predictions, theyre being called inept for making bad predictions
This coin comparison is beyond retarded. A coin has no IQ like you said, these casters do and they gave the reasons why they thought soulkey would win. You keep saying its bad prediction but you got no stats to back it up.
On June 04 2013 06:25 Assirra wrote: This coin comparison is beyond retarded. A coin has no IQ like you said, these casters do and they gave the reasons why they thought soulkey would win. You keep saying its bad prediction but you got no stats to back it up.
he praised the casters for making "correct" predictions and called it impressive based on the result. so lets say you make a poll before the finals on TL and 70%-30% in bogus favour and people explain their decisions. meanwhile you ask profitable bettors for just a vote of whos the favourite and 100% votes for bogus. people on TL is a better source because they gave reasons? the coin example is showing people how they cant praise the casters for one result. they may have a 46% success rate and you would be better off listening to a coin. people praising them for hitting a 30%er if anything is beyond retarded when they should be embarrassed for being so off. nobody has even listed whats so reasonable about their arguments i did back it up some up there
since when do people need to make multiple predictions to proof they are right once? This whole discussion is so incredible dumb and used as an excuse to still call the korean casters inept and liars when it was proven they were indeed correct. You can't come up with stuff like "they may have a 46% success rate and you would be better off listening to a coin" when it was about a single prediction. That is making stuff more complicated then it is. They were right and 90% of this thread was wrong. You are willing to come up with all the stats in the world if you want to why innovation should have won and why their predictions were wrong but since they proven those stats wrong with actual results, it does not matter. But please, keep on going theorizing why they were less reliable then a bloody coin.
On June 04 2013 06:25 Assirra wrote: This coin comparison is beyond retarded. A coin has no IQ like you said, these casters do and they gave the reasons why they thought soulkey would win. You keep saying its bad prediction but you got no stats to back it up.
he praised the casters for making "correct" predictions and called it impressive based on the result. so lets say you make a poll before the finals on TL and 70%-30% in bogus favour and people explain their decisions. meanwhile you ask profitable bettors for just a vote of whos the favourite and 100% votes for bogus. people on TL is a better source because they gave reasons? the coin example is showing people how they cant praise the casters for one result. they may have a 46% success rate and you would be better off listening to a coin. people praising them for hitting a 30%er if anything is beyond retarded when they should be embarrassed for being so off. nobody has even listed whats so reasonable about their arguments i did back it up some up there
what, so in order to be smart/correct/not inept you have to bet on who the majority of the people think is going to win or something. why would you be embarrassed for "being off" if you're right, if anything, the foreign scene (the majority) should be embarrassed for being wrong because they fell to the bogus hype.
you think somehow putting money on the line changes the way people view odds. did you consider that maybe the korean/gom casters actually believed that soulkey was going to win over bogus and not trying to hype the match. but because bogus went 3-0 in the first 3 matches, you think that he was supposed to win, you think that what you predicted was more correct than theirs. pinnacle odds are the same as any odds, theyre what the majority think, not what the best think.
On June 04 2013 06:25 Assirra wrote: This coin comparison is beyond retarded. A coin has no IQ like you said, these casters do and they gave the reasons why they thought soulkey would win. You keep saying its bad prediction but you got no stats to back it up.
he praised the casters for making "correct" predictions and called it impressive based on the result. so lets say you make a poll before the finals on TL and 70%-30% in bogus favour and people explain their decisions. meanwhile you ask profitable bettors for just a vote of whos the favourite and 100% votes for bogus. people on TL is a better source because they gave reasons? the coin example is showing people how they cant praise the casters for one result. they may have a 46% success rate and you would be better off listening to a coin. people praising them for hitting a 30%er if anything is beyond retarded when they should be embarrassed for being so off. nobody has even listed whats so reasonable about their arguments i did back it up some up there
You know people who make money in sports betting don't do it by just betting on the favourites all the time right? Bogus was the favourite in this case, but not the heavy favourite the tastosis hype would lead you to believe. They were 1-1 in recent proleague matches and the games were pretty close. Bogus should not have been that heavy of a favourite.
Your pinnacle example is a bit flawed because esports betting is a niche market with very low betting maximum caps. This means there is more leeway for the set odds to be wrong. Odds being that wrong would never happen in the NFL though for example because of the volume of money bet on that market, any kind of error like that would be corrected shortly by the market.
There's too little money in esports betting to have the same type of market correction be done. Heck pinnacle even says on their site that esports is new and their lines could be flawed. They can get away with being wrong sometimes due to the low betting maximum cap, since they won't lose much money in the end. I don't know the gsl finals betting limit, but I just checked the max for tonight's up/down matches and it's set at $362CDN. That is a pathetically low limit, but also protects pinnacle in cases where their odds were wrong such as the case with the gsl finals.
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On June 05 2013 02:35 Assirra wrote: since when do people need to make multiple predictions to proof they are right once?
if you flip a coin it will be right 50% of the time, it also means that it will guess the favourite wrong 50% of the time. you claim they were right about the favourite this time because the result proved it. so when the coin wins, it also analysed the favourite right? i dont understand how hard it can be to understand you need to make quite a few predictions to have any kind of solid idea that the person making the prediction has a good clue.
On June 05 2013 02:35 Assirra wrote:This whole discussion is so incredible dumb and used as an excuse to still call the korean casters inept and liars when it was proven they were indeed correct.
im calling the korean casters inept because peoples ideas about how the casters predictions gain them better status because of this one result is incredibly frustrating and its mindboggling to me how people do it.
On June 05 2013 02:35 Assirra wrote:You can't come up with stuff like "they may have a 46% success rate and you would be better off listening to a coin" when it was about a single prediction.
thats the reason i am doing it, because the sample size is retarded. many people claim that it proves the casters competence.
On June 05 2013 02:35 Assirra wrote:You are willing to come up with all the stats in the world if you want to why innovation should have won and why their predictions were wrong but since they proven those stats wrong with actual results, it does not matter.
you dont prove stats wrong, stats arent wrong unless someone lied about them or got them wrong in some way. they didnt prove anything wrong with this result... sometime you hit your 30% and sometime you dont. whats so hard to understand?
On June 05 2013 02:35 Assirra wrote:But please, keep on going theorizing why they were less reliable then a bloody coin.
didnt say that anywhere. their prediction for this match was worse than a coins odds of predicting it though.
On June 04 2013 06:25 Assirra wrote: This coin comparison is beyond retarded. A coin has no IQ like you said, these casters do and they gave the reasons why they thought soulkey would win. You keep saying its bad prediction but you got no stats to back it up.
he praised the casters for making "correct" predictions and called it impressive based on the result. so lets say you make a poll before the finals on TL and 70%-30% in bogus favour and people explain their decisions. meanwhile you ask profitable bettors for just a vote of whos the favourite and 100% votes for bogus. people on TL is a better source because they gave reasons? the coin example is showing people how they cant praise the casters for one result. they may have a 46% success rate and you would be better off listening to a coin. people praising them for hitting a 30%er if anything is beyond retarded when they should be embarrassed for being so off. nobody has even listed whats so reasonable about their arguments i did back it up some up there
what, so in order to be smart/correct/not inept you have to bet on who the majority of the people think is going to win or something.
to be correct you have to say that the favourite is who the favourite is
On June 05 2013 03:09 eX Killy wrote:why would you be embarrassed for "being off" if you're right
because they werent right. they would be embarrassed for claiming a 40% being 50+. in a game like sc2, thats quite hard to get wrong
On June 05 2013 03:09 eX Killy wrote:if anything, the foreign scene (the majority) should be embarrassed for being wrong because they fell to the bogus hype.
how do you know they fell for the hype?
On June 05 2013 03:09 eX Killy wrote:you think somehow putting money on the line changes the way people view odds.
do you mean to say that profitable bettors arent better than the others? theyre not better because theyre putting money on the line, theyre special because theyre profitable
On June 05 2013 03:09 eX Killy wrote:did you consider that maybe the korean/gom casters actually believed that soulkey was going to win over bogus and not trying to hype the match. pinnacle odds are the same as any odds, theyre what the majority think, not what the best think.
yeah i wrote that above, and that would be a huge tell that theyre clueless.
On June 05 2013 03:09 eX Killy wrote:but because bogus went 3-0 in the first 3 matches, you think that he was supposed to win, you think that what you predicted was more correct than theirs.
that has nothing to do with anything. i keep saying in every post how results are meaningless, dont you guys read? and if the results would have gone 4-0 bogus, the casters would have been dead wrong and are bad analysers? they cant be both good+correct and bad+wrong at the same time
Yeah no one will be able to convince veroleg he's wrong because his argument is based on the false assumption that bogus was the heavy favourite. All his reasoning is based off this false assumption. Bogus was the favourite, but not a heavy favourite to win. The betting odds that he likes to quote were wrong and too heavily in bogus's favour. It happened because esports is a niche betting market so mistakes like that can happen.
you think responding to every sentence of an argument like they each carry their own argument in of themselves proves your point or something. it actually just makes your own argument garbage. no one has a clue what you're even trying to say, you just make it confusing for everyone when you dont address the counterpoints to your argument and end up with stupid statements like below:
1. x predicts soulkey will win 2. soulkey beats bogus 4-3 3. x is right 4.
On June 05 2013 05:09 Veroleg wrote:because they werent right.
5. therefore x is actually wrong.
"soulkey won like they predicted but theyre wrong because i said so" this isnt how it works.
On June 05 2013 05:09 Veroleg wrote: they cant be both good+correct and bad+wrong at the same time
Yea, i gave up. When you start comparing knowledgeable proven casters (otherwise they wouldn't do this at this level) with a freaking coin just to support your argument that they could be wrong as well it's so god dam pointless to keep on trying. Believe what you want, seems like you are the only one left.
On June 05 2013 02:35 Assirra wrote: since when do people need to make multiple predictions to proof they are right once?
if you flip a coin it will be right 50% of the time, it also means that it will guess the favourite wrong 50% of the time. you claim they were right about the favourite this time because the result proved it. so when the coin wins, it also analysed the favourite right?
So you flip your fucking coin, then it suddenly starts thinking on what side would it fall on and why, analyzing with its non-existent brain? That's one unique coin. Last time I checked coins don't predict shit but just fall on one side based on pure chance, with no other reason at all than it fell on a particular side by chance. I guess I'm wrong thinking that your coin doesn't know the players, doesn't understand their playstyles, doesn't know jack shit about their emotional states and mental strength.
I'm getting what you're saying now, Veroleg. You're saying that predicting an underdog to win against a favorite is forever a bad thing to do. Whoever does that is inept and dumb as fuck, because statistics always favor the favorite, and statistics is God. And that there are no other factors than their past results. They can't "claim a 40% being 50+" with silly reasons like + Show Spoiler [this] +
"I think Soulkey will play a little better in a big game on the big stage"
. And if they predict the underdog winning and the underdog won, then they're right but still dumb as fuck.
^tl;dr version of Veroleg's posts. I give up too. My last post in this thread.
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote: You know people who make money in sports betting don't do it by just betting on the favourites all the time right?
did anything i say lead you to believe i would think this?
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote:Bogus was the favourite in this case, but not the heavy favourite the tastosis hype would lead you to believe.
and where is the proof for this?
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote:They were 1-1 in recent proleague matches and the games were pretty close. Bogus should not have been that heavy of a favourite.
wait, you base it on this? yeah and an 70% favourite goes 2-0 in two games 49% of the time. and do you watch starcraft? ret and bly played close games against flash in last mlg, just about anyone can make a sc2 game look close, and you use that as any kind of argument when relating to two top2-7 players in the world? you seem to lack some understanding on this topic
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote:Your pinnacle example is a bit flawed because esports betting is a niche market with very low betting maximum caps. This means there is more leeway for the set odds to be wrong.
its not flawed. as i said earlier the likelihood of pinnacle having a favourite wrong when that favourite is put at 61%/map in a game like sc2, in a highly contested gsl final is absurdly low. then theres the problem of there being rediculous amounts of money available to be had and not a single soul takes it. you have hundreds of proffesionals in korea, especially the kespa practice partners should have some clue, their coaches and trainees, and not to mention the far more numerous amateurs in korea. theres tons of people with potentially inside information. has not one of these people ever heard of this betting site, perhaps the biggest one and more or less the only one that deals sc2 bets? do they not have enough money to make big bets enough to make a dent in the odds? impossible, because if the site is incompetent enough to ever realistically make an underdog a 61%/map favourite in such a bigtime match with such large amounts of information and stats available, with such well established players- then these people would be able to build a bankroll for many successive in very short time.
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote:There's too little money in esports betting to have the same type of market correction be done.
huh, they wont change it if they receive plenty of action? has little to do with the amount of money put on a sportbet, its about the weight they reckon the bet carry
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote:Heck pinnacle even says on their site that esports is new and their lines could be flawed. They can get away with being wrong sometimes due to the low betting maximum cap, since they won't lose much money in the end. I don't know the gsl finals betting limit, but I just checked the max for tonight's up/down matches and it's set at $362CDN.
and what interest would pinnacle have in telling the truth? anything helpful towards making the market seem easier sounds like a good move to me. they dont even have any need to mention the quality of their odds in this case, yet they do. they get away with being wrong due to more money on the bad side than the good side. the limit was 1kusd. then you can bet again after a 1-3% decrease or something. i suppose you would be able to get in 12k+ before you would touch 2, although not really as 1.people would bet against you because of the crazy good odds and 2.pinnacle probably wouldnt decrease the odds as youre making bad bets.
On June 05 2013 03:40 Canucklehead wrote:Because the world of eSports is so fluid, it’s quite possible for a well-informed eSport fan to know more about a match than a bookmaker and take advantage of inaccurate odds, and use your eSports betting knowledge and Pinnacle Sports account to make money.
def not salestalk
On June 05 2013 05:17 Zealously wrote: The casters never specifically called anyone the favorite, They just said SK would win
Besides, no one is ever going to make Veroleg understand this- he is dead set on his viewpoint being perfect
understand what? ive alraedy discussed the different possibilities in whether the casters actually believed what they said or had ulterior motives (and if they were they are almost certainly terrible predictions). most of the rest of the time has gone to trying to correct peoples fallacies about probabillities and such.
On June 05 2013 06:02 Canucklehead wrote: Yeah no one will be able to convince veroleg he's wrong because his argument is based on the false assumption that bogus was the heavy favourite. All his reasoning is based off this false assumption. Bogus was the favourite, but not a heavy favourite to win. The betting odds that he likes to quote were wrong and too heavily in bogus's favour. It happened because esports is a niche betting market so mistakes like that can happen.
i dont make assumptions, i estimate probabillities. you made quite the assumption though, how did you come up with the certainty of bogus being a favourite and not a heavy favourite (however you define that)? so the odds were wrong, did you bet on them?
On June 05 2013 06:59 eX Killy wrote: you think responding to every sentence of an argument like they each carry their own argument in of themselves proves your point or something.
i do it because theres often so many crazy fallacies and bad logic all over the place to go through, it makes it a lot clearer
On June 05 2013 06:59 eX Killy wrote:it actually just makes your own argument garbage. no one has a clue what you're even trying to say, you just make it confusing for everyone when you dont address the counterpoints to your argument and end up with stupid statements like below:
ive looked through my posts, i find it very clear. im not sure how to make it clearer. what counterpoints do i not adress? it seems from my view that its you people are the ones ignoring huge parts of my posts
QUOTE]On June 05 2013 05:09 Veroleg wrote:1. x predicts soulkey will win 2. soulkey beats bogus 4-3 3. x is right 4.
On June 05 2013 05:09 Veroleg wrote:because they werent right.
5. therefore x is actually wrong.[/QUOTE]
1. coin predicts soulkey will win 2. soulkey beats bogus 4-3 3. coin is right 4. see! coin has amazing analysis and knows what its talking about.
thats one of my main points, many of you are trying to argue that theres some kind of proof for the casters being good by 1 sample of prediction. what if bogus would have 4-0, then they would be bad analysists and have bad sc2 knowledge? they cant be both...
On June 05 2013 07:11 Assirra wrote: Yea, i gave up. When you start comparing knowledgeable proven casters (otherwise they wouldn't do this at this level) with a freaking coin just to support your argument that they could be wrong as well it's so god dam pointless to keep on trying. Believe what you want, seems like you are the only one left.
ah, so you understand the coin examples? you understand how you no longer have any argument for them having analysed this match well?
[QUOTE]On June 05 2013 09:40 NicksonReyes wrote: [QUOTE]On June 05 2013 09:40 NicksonReyes wrote:I'm getting what you're saying now, Veroleg. You're saying that predicting an underdog to win against a favorite is forever a bad thing to do.[/QUOTE] im saying they extremely likely missanalysed the match badly, i dont know what kind of values you want to put on the act though.
[QUOTE]On June 05 2013 09:40 NicksonReyes wrote:Whoever does that is inept and dumb as fuck[/QUOTE] no, there may be many reasons. the field they are judging may be extremely hard, they may be new to that field, or they may have a bad brain for that area making them gain knowledge slowly, but make up for it by being better than verage in other areas. theres many possibillities.
[QUOTE]On June 05 2013 09:40 NicksonReyes wrote:because statistics always favor the favorite, and statistics is God. And that there are no other factors than their past results.[/QUOTE] theres many potential factors, i and others have listed many in the thread. statistics can whatever. what do you mean statistics alwayw favor the favourite?
[QUOTE]On June 05 2013 09:40 NicksonReyes wrote:They can't "claim a 40% being 50+" with silly reasons like + Show Spoiler [this] +
"I think Soulkey will play a little better in a big game on the big stage"
. And if they predict the underdog winning and the underdog won, then they're right but still dumb as fuck. they can claim what they want, the question is about the quality of their claims yes predicting the underdog winning would be a bad prediction, surely you can see that?
On June 05 2013 11:33 Veroleg wrote: yes predicting the underdog winning would be a bad prediction, surely you can see that?
Nope because that would mean betting would be child's play and everyone should just go to vegas and bet on the favourites every time. The other person had it correct. You think unless someone bets on the favourite, they're an idiot for betting on the underdog.
I said pinnacle had bogus as a heavy favourite due to the line. Last I saw bogus was at -287, which is pretty damn high and happens in sports when you have a top team vs a shit team. I thought bogus would win myself, but never thought it would be a cakewalk and wouldn't have been surprised if soulkey won. It wasn't really worth the risk for myself to bet on bogus with those odds.
On June 05 2013 11:48 Assirra wrote: You know Veroleg, if you wanna continue (i don't) on at least be a reply in this thread rather then sending childish insulting PM's.
On June 05 2013 11:33 Veroleg wrote: yes predicting the underdog winning would be a bad prediction, surely you can see that?
Nope because that would mean betting would be child's play and everyone should just go to vegas and bet on the favourites every time.
lol what? they made a prediction of flat odds, they were to pick the one they thought the most likely to win
On June 05 2013 11:44 Canucklehead wrote:The other person had it correct. You think unless someone bets on the favourite, they're an idiot for betting on the underdog.
no, i think that if someone claims the underdog as a favourite, its an incorrect prediction
On June 05 2013 11:44 Canucklehead wrote:I said pinnacle had bogus as a heavy favourite due to the line. Last I saw bogus was at -287, which is pretty damn high and happens in sports when you have a top team vs a shit team. I thought bogus would win myself, but never thought it would be a cakewalk and wouldn't have been surprised if soulkey won. It wasn't really worth the risk for myself to bet on bogus with those odds.
yeah, and profitable betters existed that thought that -287 wasnt quite good enough as well as just good enough, whats your point? i said earlier in the thread that i had money on soulkey too, but i later changed my mind by a tiny margin. fortunately i had already made the bet i have no clue what that thing -287 means though, imo that is just an absurd measurement. its like the whole fahrenheit thing
On June 05 2013 11:48 Assirra wrote: You know Veroleg, if you wanna continue (i don't) on at least reply in this thread rather then sending childish insulting PM's.
youve been insulting my intelligence in this thread, and you said you were done with this thread after multiple replies of not countering my arguments in any way. how were i going to reach you otherwise?
On June 05 2013 11:48 Assirra wrote: You know Veroleg, if you wanna continue (i don't) on at least be a reply in this thread rather then sending childish insulting PM's.
lol i got one too, joke pbu i bet
nope you didnt. you insulted my post ("joke post") in another thread then i pmed you telling you that you had no argument. what a surprise- you didnt. everyone keeps insulting me but keeps showing no arguments