--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Stockholm Player List Set! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
- HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
- Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
- MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
- San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
- TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
- Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
- StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
- Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
- jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
- Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.25 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
- Life (StarTale), is at ~ 96.85 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
- herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 95.31 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
- MMA (Acer), is at ~ 65.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
- Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 64.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
- sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 57.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
- Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 53.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
- soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 30.68 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
- INnoVation, is at ~ 30.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
- Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 19.87 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
- Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.15 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
- Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
- YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 13.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
- ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 11.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
- Pigbaby, is at ~ 10.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
- HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 8.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.16 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.31 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 44.7 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 64.36 % in yesterday's post) ~ 51.99 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest winners and losers since yesterday's post before the full Stockholm player list was set. Biggest Winners soO went up by ~ 12.6 %, going from ~ 18.08 % to ~ 30.68 % MMA went up by ~ 10.19 %, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 65.36 % YoDa went up by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 8.19 % to ~ 13.31 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.36 %, going from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 64.65 % HerO went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 8.08 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.82 % to ~ 0.98 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 70.75 % to ~ 53.52 % sOs went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 61.51 % to ~ 57.73 % Life went down by ~ 2.58 %, going from ~ 99.43 % to ~ 96.85 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.89 %, going from ~ 15.88 % to ~ 13.99 % Heart went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 6.89 % to ~ 5.14 % + Show Spoiler [More] + ForGG went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 12.18 % to ~ 11.21 % HuK went down by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.43 % herO went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 96.08 % to ~ 95.31 % Classic went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.25 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 20.49 % to ~ 19.87 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 10.92 % to ~ 10.36 % Happy went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.1 % Cure went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 0.31 % Golden went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 3.38 % to ~ 3.12 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 0.32 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 30.81 % to ~ 30.62 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.03 % Rain went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 14.26 % to ~ 14.15 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 37.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 53.52 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 9.75 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.87 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 6.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.99 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.43 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 1.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.63 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] + MaNa ~ 0.25 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.98 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.32 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.1 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % to ~ 74.6 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.87 % to ~ 18.16 %
So let's do another checkup lol. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 3 players over 0.1%. From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances
GSL Rain would gain ~ 85.86 % if they win, with a ~ 14.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 %
WCS AM HerO would gain ~ 91.92 % if they win, with a ~ 6.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 6.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 80.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.86 % to ~ 99.99 % Heart would gain ~ 59.62 % if they win, with a ~ 7.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 64.76 % HuK would gain ~ 44.64 % if they win, with a ~ 5.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 47.06 %
WCS EU Welmu would gain ~ 97.36 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 99.99 % ForGG would gain ~ 88.79 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 99.99 % Bunny would gain ~ 86.01 % if they win, with a ~ 11.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 85.02 % if they win, with a ~ 3.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 88.14 % YoDa would gain ~ 50.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 63.53 % MaNa would gain ~ 37.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 38.54 % MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 % Dayshi would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 17.63 %
Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance, probably relying on the Placeholder Tournament. Cure would gain ~ 1.21 % if they win, with a ~ 20.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 1.53 % Stats would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Happy would gain ~ 0.86 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.96 %
Here are some simple events for GSL. + Show Spoiler [GSL Events] + ~ 8.35 % of the time soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 94.02 %
~ 27.55 % of the time soO gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 39.37 %
~ 9.99 % of the time Rain gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change Rain's Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 0.13 %
~ 22.84 % of the time INnoVation gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 30.63 % to ~ 0.03 %
~ 25.89 % of the time Cure gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 0 %
Simple events for WCS AM + Show Spoiler [WCS AM Events] + ~ 9.08 % of the time Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 40.7 %
~ 9.94 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 11.26 %
~ 12.21 % of the time Scarlett gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 7.6 %
~ 20.52 % of the time HerO gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 2.44 %
~ 22.87 % of the time Pigbaby gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 0.39 %
~ 26.78 % of the time Scarlett gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 0.06 %
~ 11.5 % of the time HuK gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 11.47 % of the time Heart gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 0.01 %
Simple events for WCS EU + Show Spoiler [WCS EU Events] + ~ 7.56 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
~ 14.71 % of the time MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 99.92 %
~ 28.35 % of the time MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 80.52 %
~ 12.92 % of the time Bunny gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 10.41 %
~ 8.17 % of the time ForGG gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 6.01 %
~ 25.51 % of the time Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 3.27 %
~ 15.1 % of the time ForGG gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 1.98 %
~ 4.54 % of the time Welmu gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 1.12 %
~ 10.85 % of the time Welmu gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.09 %
~ 49.8 % of the time Bunny gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 0.09 %
~ 5.8 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 0.03 %
~ 26.96 % of the time ForGG gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 0.02 %
~ 13.78 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.02 %
~ 24.49 % of the time YoDa gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 3.34 % of the time Dayshi gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 26.88 % of the time Welmu gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 4.4 % of the time MaNa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 12.33 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0 %
We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them. Snute ~ 3.01 % of the time Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 100 %
~ 3.13 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 6.07 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.85 %
~ 11.48 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 93.74 %
~ 20.74 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 68.66 %
~ 27.81 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 29.36 %
sOs ~ 14.85 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 13.12 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 99.97 %
~ 25.06 % of the time sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 98.97 %
~ 46.97 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.58 %
Jaedong ~ 2.25 % of the time Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 100 %
~ 2.67 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 5.33 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.86 %
~ 10.52 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 94.81 %
~ 19.91 % of the time Jaedong gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 74.58 %
~ 29.02 % of the time Jaedong gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 49.82 %
Then we also have Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm. Red Bull Washington Winning Gains sOs would gain ~ 42.26 % if they win, with a ~ 14.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 5.36 % if they win, with a ~ 14.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 25.22 % Cure would gain ~ 2.05 % if they win, with a ~ 12.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 2.37 % PartinG would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 14.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] + Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Trap would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Stockholm Winning Gains soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 99.99 % HerO would gain ~ 59.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 67.86 % Snute would gain ~ 46.48 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 53.52 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong would gain ~ 35.34 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 64.66 % to ~ 100 % MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 3.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] + Bunny would gain ~ 30.81 % if they win, with a ~ 4.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 44.81 % ForGG would gain ~ 14.28 % if they win, with a ~ 4.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 25.49 % YoDa would gain ~ 7.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.29 % to ~ 20.94 % herO would gain ~ 4.7 % if they win, with a ~ 6.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.3 % to ~ 100 % Welmu would gain ~ 4.69 % if they win, with a ~ 1.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 7.32 % Life would gain ~ 3.15 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.85 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 2.8 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 5.22 % MaNa would gain ~ 1.6 % if they win, with a ~ 0.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.58 % Dayshi would gain ~ 1.48 % if they win, with a ~ 1.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 1.8 % Classic would gain ~ 0.75 % if they win, with a ~ 3.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.25 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 3.62 % Solar would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.08 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 2.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % TLO would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Oz would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % First would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 3.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % jjakji would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % MorroW would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MarineLord would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Blysk would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kane would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Zanster would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % SortOf would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % PiG would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ret would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DeMusliM would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ToD would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Grubby would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % uThermal would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Leenock would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Lilbow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
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