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Note: I'm not in any way involved with the aligulac project, I'm just a fan of the website and thought it would be fun to see the websites predictions and how they would differ from the general predictions on the website Note: Probability to win is in a bo3, unfortunatly there isn't a bo1
Day 1, Monday 29th december:
Jin Air Green Wings vs SK Telecom
Cure vs Dark Rating overall: Cure: 2016 Dark: 1993 Rating vs the race: Cure: 2237 Dark: 2043 Probability to win: Cure: 65.63% Dark: 34.37% Link to the Aligulac page
Maru vs soO Rating overall: Maru: 2078 soO: 1956 Rating vs the race: Maru: 2125 soO: 1983 Probability to win: Maru: 61.64% soO: 38.36% Link to the Aligulac page
sOs vs Innovation Ratings overall: sOs: 2042 Innovation: 2143 Ratings vs the race: sOs: 2089 Innovation: 2125 Probability of winning: sOs: 47.04% Innovation: 52.96% Link to the Aligulac page
Rogue vs Classic Ratings Overall: Rogue: 2046 Classic: 1892 Ratings vs the race: Rogue: 2037 Classic: 1923 Probability of winning: Rogue: 59.26% Classic: 40.74% Link to the Aligulac page
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MVP vs KT Rollster
Marineking vs Stats Rating overall: MarineKing: 1793 Stats: 1988 Rating vs the race: MarineKing: 1887 Stats: 1901 Probability to win: MarineKing: 49.40% Stats: 50.60% Link to Aligulac page
Departure vs TY Rating overall: DeParture: 1628 TY: 2101 Rating vs the race: DeParture: 1532 TY: 2104 Probability to win: DeParture: 25.96% TY: 74.04% Link to Aligulac page
Panic vs Zest Rating overall: Panic: 1527 Zest: 2032 Rating vs the race: Panic: 1426 Zest: 2200 Probability to win: Panic: 20.48% Zest: 79.52% Link to Aligulac page
Losira vs Flash Rating overall: Losira: 1898 Flash: 1975 Rating vs the race: Losira: 2006 Flash: 2006 Probability to win: Losira: 51.68% Flash: 48.32% Link to Aligulac page
So, TL, what odds where you most suprised by?
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Three I disagree with in order of how much I disagree (most disagreement first);
1) Aligulac says Cure 66%/Dark 34%: Aligulac is an awesome site but it tends to undervalue players who don't have a long track record even if they have been doing extremely well recently. Cure has been improving a lot but Dark has been showing signs of a rising star. I personally am Dark 60%/Cure 40%.
2) Aligulac says LosirA 52%/Flash 48%: Seems like this is because Flash has lost 4 of his last 5 matches against Zerg, but if you look at who those players are (Rogue, Life, ByuL, Soulkey), that's nothing to be ashamed of. Meanwhile in LosirA's most recent vT matches, he's 3-3 but two of his wins are against foreigners, and two of his losses are against unproven players in Center and TANGTANG. He did have a great run in vT at HSC recently, but he lost 0-2 to Flash there. Bottom line is it's been a long time since LosirA had any notable results in a preparation-based setting like GSL or SPL and he's got a lot to prove before I'd favor him over Flash (by the way I am not a Flash fanboy but he's certainly a very strong player). I put this at Flash 67%/LosirA 33%.
3) Aligulac says Rogue 59%/Classic 41%: Aligulac also tends to overvalue players who have a lot of recent wins even if those wins aren't in the most impressive contexts--Rogue appears to be favored against Classic because he has a great vP record in the past month (which ordinarily is a great reason to favor a player), but if you look at the actual results many of those wins were in online cups against lesser-known opponents, and even his vP victories in the SSL/GSL qualifiers were not all against extremely strong players. I would say this is 50%/50%.
I also disagree with Panic only having a 20% chance to beat Zest, but not because of anything about Zest or Panic. As long as both players are competent Korean progamers (which Panic is), I don't believe a PvP should ever be 4:1 favored. Too much randomness in the matchup. I'd say Zest is maybe 2:1 favored.
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Don't underestimate cure's TvZ though
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It'll be very interesting to see how these play out in respect to the actual results. Super excited for these matches!
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