Kings and Kongs



Group H marks the end of the first phase of Code S. In this time we have witnessed the rise of heroes both old and new. In Group A, Zest, the best player of 2014, arose once more, but trailing quietly in his wake is a figure no less monumental in TaeJa. In the meantime, new names have been thrust into the light, casting aside players of greater repute: SpeeD pushed Classic aside in Group F to advance, while Soulkey, formerly a member of the KeSPA elite and recently awoken from a long hiatus, was overcome by a rapidly-ascending Bunny, who had also defeated players thought to be classes above him prior to his upset. Now, in Group H, we have 4 players, all of whom have much to lose and much to gain, and all of whom cannot be dismissed as lesser players.

Of all the formerly-great players who the fanbase pushed as 'upcoming', 'returning', and 'coming back', (P)Dear is probably the least mentioned and the most overlooked. For over a year after his fall from grace, he found himself the butt of all the jokes, and for good reason; his spectacular collapse after his dual GSL and Season Finals victories at the end of 2013 made him and his results excellent targets for mockery and disdain. Now, at last, it seems that he has recovered some of his old form. But at the same time, we cannot pretend to be taken completely aback by this: at the end of HotS, Dear completed a remarkable run in the GSL that was ended only at the semifinals, while his performance in the whole of 2015, marked by qualifications for all SSL main events and a qualification for a KeSPA Cup Season, was actually pretty good, and a significant improvement on his 2014. Now, in LotV, it appears that Dear has adopted a violently explosive, highly aggressive style—see his herO-esque overcommitment to gateway aggression against Maru on Tuesday, for example. In PvP, he is known for incredibly brazen use of Blink to destroy activated Disruptors before they explode, and to a high degree of success as well. While he’s been tactically outmaneuvered by both sOs and Zest in important series and matches, he’s come out on top due to his superior handling of his engagements. It is unknown how he fares against Zerg, as he has not played many televised series against them, with a 2-0 against Rogue as his only significant victory. But, if anything, Dear has already displayed championship-calibre play, and the pressure will be on his opponent to answer it.

(Z)DongRaeGu is the Zerg who will do that, and he cannot be feeling very confident about his chances. Advancing into Code S with a weak 3-2 victory over a mediocre Protoss, Hush, DongRaeGu had better improve his play, or else he faces banishment into the Code B void. In that series, he displayed critical weaknesses, with poor, inconsistent scouting and irrational decision-making at certain points being the most notable. However, considering his personal predicament, he cannot accept all the blame for his weak play; leaving SBENU at the end of 2015 with a plan to join a foreign team, only to be completely foiled by the 2016 WCS system, DongRaeGu has since been teamless. This very strange choice, especially considering his strong Proleague record, can only leave us asking more. Still, the fact remains: while he is DongRaeGu, he always has a chance, but a good name seldom, if ever, makes up for the harsh realities of current form.

Of all the old champions fondly spoken of with nostalgia, (P)HerO is probably the most underrated, and yet he is one of the seminal figures in the Protoss lineage. Despite not winning any championships since his remarkable IEM Cologne victory 2 years ago, and achieving little of note in 2015 other than a quarterfinals finish at Dreamhack Valencia, HerO is a player who deserves much veneration, and yet is remembered little. He is, among other things, one of the very, very few players to attempt to fight Zerg in the lategame in the Brood Lord-Infestor hell of late WoL; the first to tame the 1-1-1; his multitasking and harassment skills is probably the highest form of such Protoss play ever displayed in WoL or HotS. His victories are never cheap; he often loses, in fact, because he tries too hard to deal more damage than he needs to. But all that is in the past. In his series in Code A against Sacsri, he crushed the Zerg with diverse strategies and strong multitasking, a ghost of his old style. But this time, his opponent is not a mediocre Zerg, but one with probably one of the greatest ZvP styles, if not the greatest. HerO will need to not only summon his old ghost, but become it, to overcome.

Amidst the myriad interviews that have occurred in the past few months, iloveoov's stands out as the best. It revealed a great deal about the thoughts of a storied legend on the future of SC2 and his personal philosophy. But why am I talking about iloveoov rather than (Z)soO? Because, amongst his many comments, he stated that that he wanted to 'put soO on top of the world' as his main goal in 2016. He also said that soO is the 'heart and soul of the team' and that his goal was to put him on top of a GSL or SSL. If anything, regardless of soO's previous greatness and status as a Kong, we should carefully observe him simply because of iloveoov's declaration. soO has been rather docile thus far, with no remarkable series against remarkable opponents, while his elimination from the SSL by a nominally weak Patience puts his form into question; in combination with his dearth of series in LotV, we do not know very much about how soO plays. Still, he very well could be on a dark horse run to the GSL Finals, simply because he soO, and he is worth more than a Round of 32 finish.

Predictions

This is a very hard group to predict, owing to the proximity, or lack thereof, of these players' most recent results, with Dear the favourite to seize this group due to his strong play in LotV thus far. However, as stated, we should not count the other players out simply because they lack any recent results. In such cases, we can only fall back on the resources each player has at his disposal. Using this admittedly weak metric, soO and Dear should defeat their teamless opponents, and then what happens in the Winners' and Losers' Match is uncertain. Still, this is a PvZ group, and the matchup, if anything else, has looked to be increasingly more statistically imbalanced than before, although whether this is due to an imbalance in strategy, mismatches in skill or a fundamental imbalance is still unknown. Thus, all things being equal, soO should be slightly favoured over Dear, and DongRaeGu over HerO. However, I can’t discount how weak DRG looked in Code A, and he looks to be the least likely to be advancing tonight.

Dear > DongRaeGu
HerO < soO
soO > Dear
HerO > DongRaeGu
Dear > HerO

(Z)soO and (P)Dear advance to the Round of 16.