EPTA State of Flux
Thus far, Code S has proven to be full of surprises. Beyond the presence of certain players who one would never have guessed would show up, the metagame has shown itself to be far more complex than the Western community perceived. For instance, how would one have guessed that the only Zerg in the Round of 8 would be Losira—a player who had reached the playoffs of Code S only 3 times before in a 5 year career? Certainly not by looking at the WCS Winter Championship player list. Who would have thought that the muta/ling/bane composition, played by Losira against Dream, would still be viable despite being declared 'dead' because of the larva nerf? Would you have anticipated that INnoVation, Maru, Bomber, Classic, and Soulkey would be knocked out in either Code A or the Round of 32, and by players like Coach Stork and rookie SpeeD? Certainly not. Thus, anything is possible at this point, and even more so with this group.
Dear was a good player at the end of HotS, and even before Code S began we already had an inkling of his level when he annihilated sOs 3-1 in Code A, exhibiting masterful disruptor control against Zest in Proleague to even the playing field from behind. We simply did not anticipate the degree to which he had grasped the new expansion by the throat—with a 76% series winrate in LotV, and only two losses in 2016 so far (to Dream and Maru in Proleague), Dear has quietly rebuilt the foundation on which his shattered empire of 2013 once stood. That said, those two losses are the only chink in his armour that we’ve seen. His PvP and PvZ play has been all but flawless so far, while his PvT winrate remains worryingly low (albeit off a small sample size). His play in that matchup simply lacks the decisive execution that’s come to be his signature against the other two races—see for instance that game against Maru, where he made an awful decision to try to force a win off gateway tech, resetting his lead and effectively committing suicide. We will have to see whether that was a one-time mistake, or a more ominous lack of faith in his late game, but he will have to play better if he wants to advance.His opponent,
Bunny, is no slouch either. Throughout his four years of WoL and HotS, he was effectively nonexistent in the Korean scene, and probably most known for his extreme widow mine tactics in Proleague 2015 against sOs. This year though, Bunny has significantly upped the ante of his play; this is the first time he has been in either Code S or Code A. Even then, his play has made great strides: adopting an aggressive, multitask-heavy style that targets the opponent's economy, particularly with midgame and lategame mass widow mine drops, he has demonstrated that he has the patience and resilience to overcome strong opponents in long macro games. It will be interesting to see this style collide with Dear's, which is equally, if not more, aggressive.MyuNgSiK is a player who cannot be described with any particular phrase, save perhaps 'unpredictable'. Unpredictable in strategy, unpredictable in play, and last of all, unpredictable in overall performance, MyuNgSiK is that player whom one will never bet on, yet is always afraid to bet against. Previously he was said to wield a 'stupid gun', but such a saying was contingent upon a general consensus that he was a weak player; this can no longer be considered a truism. In LotV, he won the GSL Preseason, overcoming TY 3-2 when down 0-2, while he dominated his group 4-1 to advance to this stage. We cannot say much about what he will do against TY this time, but given that the latter has risen above his defeat and MyuNgSiK has thus far only coasted along, this cunning protoss may have to rely on his race's natural aptitude for unusual and unforeseen aggression to prevail.After the departure of Flash,
TY has taken up the role of KT Rolster's signature Terran, and he has already done a fantastic job at the helm. That said, his lustre has been diminished as of late. It’s now three losses on the bounce in Proleague, while in online events, he lost 0-2 to Jieshi in the Kung Fu Cup, even though he redeemed himself somewhat by defeating the Chinese Protoss 2-0 in the Deciders' Match. Though mostly showcasing an intense multitasking style that can only be described as overwhelming and otherworldly, TY has proved to be a highly intelligent player with his own unique style—consider for instance his starkly different play in TvP before the adept nerf when he typically remained highly defensive in the early game, gradually raising his aggression by small increments, slowly absorbing control of the map and the game from Protoss while displaying a cool willingness to be behind Protoss in economy and technology so long as he remained safe. It will be interesting to see what novelties he can adopt against MyuNgSiK.Predictions
Assuming conventional thinking holds true (a questionable assumption), Dear and TY can safely be counted on to best their respective opponents. What happens between them then in the Winners' Match cannot be predicted with any certainty, though TY has an advantage due to his superior experience and prior play. Between MyuNgSiK and Bunny, either side, as usual, has roughly equal chances to emerge the superior. What happens in the Deciders' Match then will be a total mystery, and we will have to rely on past history and our judgment of their character to make the right call.
Dear > Bunny
MyuNgSiK < TY
TY > Dear
MyuNgSiK > Bunny
Dear > MyuNgSiK
TY and Dear to advance to the Round of 8.
