[PL] Masters of the Week

GOTW - Horang2 vs Action on Heartbreak Ridge
By Pangshai
This week's game took the early beginnings of a very standard PvZ on Heartbreak Ridge - Protoss fast expanding and Zerg taking 3 base after an overpool. Action, however, quickly decided to vary things a little, planting his third hatchery at the bottom right expansion, instead of the usual top right. Besides that, everything went as expected into the midgame, Horang2 perhaps teching and getting his gateways up a little faster.

Now in an attempt to mimic Anytime's memorable game against Yellow years ago, Horang2 moved out with an army of 3 zealots, accompanied by 3 DTs, and headed for where he thought the Zerg third base would be. You could almost see the surprise on his face when he found an empty expansion spot, and he then turned his army to Action's nat where 2 sim-citied sunkens turned him away.

In the meantime, Action had mined out the mineral patch blocking the entrance to the back of Horang2's nat, and a single lurker burrowed itself behind the mineral line. This was cleaned up easily with the help of archon splash, and the game continued with both players macroing up, Horang taking a third base and Action adding a 5th hatch, a second evo and teching to hive while getting mutas.

With a significant muta fleet built up, Action headed over to Horang2's main, encountering and dispatching off a couple of corsairs along the way. In Horang2's main, they swiftly took down a single cannon in Horang2's main and look set to start picking off probes when Horang2 sprung his surprise on Action, landing a maelstrom on all his mutas. Unfortunately, his archons were unable to make it to the mutas in time, and they got away unscathed.



His hive now complete, Action's plan started to come into fruitition. It seemed he was going to turtle with his 3 bases and make guerilla attacks with zerglings and defilers, forcing Protoss to turtle while he expanded, and true enough, a zergling attack subsequently hit Horang2's third. First flying his mutas into the Protoss' main and nat in an attempt to pull the Protoss army away, Action then sent his lings at the newly warped expansion. Later backed up by his mutas, they took down the defending cannons and most of the probes before the defending Protoss army arrived. Action, however, was not without casualties, his mutas bearing the brunt of almost an entire storm before he retreated them to safety.



Defilers were now in play for the Zerg player, who had taken an additional 2 bases for a total of 5, and he put them to good use, hitting the Protoss army with couple of plagues despite the presence of dark archons for feedback. At the same time a drop headed for the Protoss main, looking to do some damage while Horang2's army was out. Tragically, that encountered some stiff resistance in the form of cannons and zealots, and Action was promptly forced to abort the mission.

Concurrently, Horang2, discontent with being on the receiving end of all the attacks, had his army out and wondering the map, scouring it of Zerg expansions. The first, in the top left, fell easily, but the Zerg army made a stand at the top right expansion, swarm and lurkers holding out against the largely goon, archon army of Horang2 and forcing its retreat. Evidently, Action was not a very forgiving person, and in a bloodthirsty bid to avenge the loss of his expansion, he blocked the retreat path of Protoss army with some ultralings and despite the best efforts of Horang2, laid waste to the remaining Protoss units.



Things were looking dire for Horang2 now, with his main and nat starting to dry up, and Action still dwindling the strength of his army with plague. Some storm drops were relatively successful, but Action's ultraling army was growing rapidly. The two armies finally clashed in the centre of the map, and really, the plagued zealots didn't stand a chance despite being backed up by reavers and archons. Both sides suffered heavy casualties, but unlike Horang2, Action had a whole lot more units waiting at his rally point after the battle was over. After losing the remainder of his army, Horang2 gave up the fight, and left the game with a GG.



Very unique play from Action here. Taking the bottom right base early allowed him to defend with a minimal amount of lurkers, and he was therefore able to spend his gas on teching to hive and upgrading, while also droning up. The base then served as a staging point for defiler/ling attacks on the Protoss third where his army could be ferried up quickly via nydus canal. Once at hive, his saved up gas easily translated into a large number of ultralisks, and with all the previous plagues whittling away at Horang2's army, won the game easily for him.

Statisfaction
By Heyoka
Round 1 is now just under half over, here are the current race stats by map for (most of) the month of October.



See anything out of place? There have been a lot of mirrors. Well some other people noticed too. These numbers are actually somewhat conservative, as the majority of the unplayed 4th sets in the last few weeks have been mirror games. Additionally, next week's scheduled games only have a single match that has more non-mirrors than mirrors (eSTRO vs KHAN), while the majority of them have 3 same-race games. This is looking at placing us at well over 50% of the total games played so far this season being mirrors. It seems particularly high if you consider that in a perfectly even world with perfectly random chance of any matchup happening, we would only see 33% mirrors.

Of course, Brood War is not that random. One race will always be considered strongest (or weakest) on a given map, and it would be foolish for a coach to not put players on maps where they are likely to have even the slightest advantage. There isn't an equal number of each race playing in proleague, and the player skill combined for each race is also not completely even. Therefore, it makes more sense for us to view this in the context of how this has panned out in the recent past.

As a starting point, last season for rounds 4 and 5 we had about 40% total games as mirrors (taken from the 08-09 R&S thread which just so happened to have the numbers). I wasn't really satisfied with this though, thinking that maybe a newer map pool is likely to cause more mirrors. Intuitively, it would seem that after initial testing one or two races would be considered strongest, and once popular strategies on those maps are standardized through a few weeks of televised games, the additional race (or races) would show up with some counter-tactics designed to beat them. We sort of saw that in Battle Royal last year, which had increasingly more TvZs as time went on, though that isn't a great example for obvious reasons (they still couldn't win).

It just so happens that before zatic went off on his Korean excursion he fetched those numbers. Here is how it broke down per round last year.


These charts are super wide by necessity so its hard to get them to fit within the border

For a more interpretation we would look only at October's results, but looking at all of round 1 will give a solid enough answer. The map rotation between round 1, 2, and 3 was relatively minor, as was the rotation between 4 and 5 (our only major shift was a new batch of maps for round 4). Therefore, if that original hypothesis was true, then we should see a drop off between something like rounds 1 and 2. We certainly don't, and while there is a big drop in round 3 it seems more likely that it is a characteristic of Winner's League format than anything (because of how similar the final rounds are to 1-3). It appears we can say with some reasonable assurance that a round's original rate of mirror:non-mirror is likely to be the same through future rounds, given the same map pool.

Round 4 was the one with Battle Royal, and is also the round with a mirror rate similar to what we have experienced thusfar. If we chop out that map entirely from that sample, it becomes 45% (106/237), which is still a little high but not quite to the tipping point of 55% we are aiming towards.

Does this mean we can conclude anything about map balance? Probably not, this is purely measuring who coaches are willing to send out on what maps. It is a measure of how the coaches percieve map balance to be, and this tells us they see it as a Terran and Zerg pool. As of right now, those in charge of the teams see current maps as offering much more narrow race choices as compared to those in the 08-09 season. We can potentially draw a conclusion that these maps are, in some quality, worse than last year's, but without more data and a more thorough look it doesn't mean much. As of right now, it does look like this map pool is likely to become stagnant faster compared to those of a year ago (in terms of both matchups and viable build orders, but this doesn't include any hard analysis of the latter).

Finally, I came up with a fun way of representing graphically who we can "blame". Proleague has a rule that a team must specify one of each race for every match, but because 4 matches are pre-determined this leaves a small bit of room for customization. This is a chart that records the racial choice of each team on that remaining set, the one that doubles up on a race.



This chart is cool because it is the start to representing team character in measurable ways. Unsurprisingly, CJ more often than not sends two zergs. ACE and eSTRO typically send 2 terrans, and KHAN has not felt confident enough in their terran lineup to try using two of them at once. Its a little odd that Oz hasn't tried the HiyA/Lomo combo yet (as they did with some frequency last season), instead opting for ggaemo or killer to support Jaedong.

This is also a good way to support the same conclusions above about this map pool being less varied in race choices. Most teams opt to send out two zergs, and overwhelmingly so. Double protoss lineups are rare. These aren't necessarily things we can't figure out from other information (such as looking at or playing on maps and making judgments about them, or knowing which teams have weak lineups for one race) but it is nice to have measured, empirical data to point to.

If we wanted to truly find out how different this is than past years (and if it indeed is the maps), we would have to collect the same data for every proleague and then match it to current standings (and potentially find a way to correct for changes in lineup). Here is what that data looks like for just round 5 of last year.



This starts to define the situation a little better. Back to the issue of who we can blame, this second chart makes it look like the fault lies somewhere in between the maps and the individual players themselves. KHAN has changed from sending the Jangbi-Stork duo out nearly every match to opting for double zergs. Is this because the maps truly favor zergs or because JangBi has looked horrible against everything but protoss lately? We may never know. Oz has sent double zerg more often so far than last season, is it because of maps or because Lomo and HiyA angered the staff? This distinction is impossible to judge purely on limited observations.

There are some things that seem somewhat telling, however. The first is that SKT never once opted to send out two zergs at once last season (for good reason, they had a season winrate of less than 50%), whereas this season Coach Park made the decision to start his very first match that way. Another is that after struggling much of last season, KT came out of the gates fast this year, with nearly the same distribution of race proportions. FOX has maintained similar numbers, and have started their season much better than anyone expected. Of course, it leaves the curious case of CJ who should be a powerhouse in a heavy zerg environment, but have had trouble in the past month. Funny enough, ACE went from a zerg dominated team to one that typically fields 2 terrans, and are doing slightly better (probably because they lost OversKy and gained RuBy).

Ultimately this isn't a complete enough look to get a total conclusion as to why the matchups have been so much less variable in our current season, but we can certainly get some valuable insight as to why. The maps seem to be a likely culprit, however the fact that lineups change and player skill can change wildly from one season to the next is also a relevant factor.

Fantasy PL 09-10 Round 1 - Week 3
By Pachi

Fantasy Proleague keeps chugging along like the story of the week. lazz, the little engine that almost could, has been fighting off the KT swarm and championing the good fight with SKT T1. However, KT came back later in the week to restore the past pack leaders back into a more comforting position.

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STANDINGS

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SUMMARY

• Big spender
  SKT T1 made big moves scoring two strong wins without game losses while Team Jaedong was on the opposite end, crashing to a 0-6 and not showing a single of their prepared celebrations. Slightly less noticable is Samsung KHAN falling to a new low, lower than even Air Force ACE despite edging them out in an ACE match.
  
  
• Sick Trade-na-do
  Leta was a storm this week and many smart players made the trade selling off fantasy or Luxury for him to earn +8 points.
  
  
• Streaking
  Hyuk has been causing upsets, punishing a underperforming Jaedong and breaky the streaky EffOrt. Also to do with streaks, Flash has moved up to his 6 game win streak and is slowly pushing away from the other players. (The only player/team that is worth more than Flash is KT Rolster with 2 more points).
  
  
• Missing In Action
  Missing in action this week is in fact fantasy who missed both his matches due to his team's overperformance earning a measly 2 points despite being scheduled for two TvT showdowns. However, the main culprit for making fantasy proleague team owners cry is Jaedong who did not earn a single point after being crushed 0-2 this week.

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INTERVIEWS
This week's interviews focuses on the common fantasy proleague team owner and introduces introductions to help you know about the people who are kicking your ass.

• lazz - Currently eighth placed.
  
• Firstly could you give a brief introduction about yourself? (When did you join TeamLiquid? Why do you visit TeamLiquid? etc)
  
  Hey I'm lazz, I joined TL about a year ago although I've been watching pro starcraft for about 3 years and playing since around '99. I'm a gentleman, I play Protoss.
  
  + Show Spoiler [Interview] +
  
  1. KT has staggered and you have broken through to the higher ranks. Were you expecting this? How do you feel about it?
  
  How do I feel about KT losing? I'm ecstatic! KT dominating has been the theme of FPL so far. Hopefully they'll balance out a bit, but who knows? Honestly, I don't know how I ended up in the top 10 at the end of this week. I didn't pick KT or wemade at the start of the season, I shouldn't be there.
  
  2. You have been impressive at trading so far. Were you worried? Will you continue gambling on those trades?
  
  So far trades have been pretty easy. Although I must say I was very surprised by how few traded Lux for Leta. I thought that one was pretty good. I'm a huge fan of trading, even though sometimes it hurts. I usually trade every week, unless my set up is perfect (2 LAs on everyone on main, 0 LAs on anti).
  
  3. Your new recruit Leta was able turn it on this week. Was he just lucky or do you think he has returned to form?
  
  I'm actually a bit of a Leta fan, so I was happy that a profitable trade presented itself that happened to be for a player I enjoyed watching. I think he's back in form, I expect him to keep winning.
  
  4. SKT, KT, Hite and STX are taking a holiday and don't have matches next week. Were you aware? What will you do?!
  
  I HAD NO IDEA! I thought they'd just play 1 game a week until the other teams caught up in games played. I like this though, mostly because KT isn't playing, which is awesome, but also because it's a great opportunity to separate the wheat from the chaff in the top 100, to see who can actually make good trades.
  
  5. Do you enjoy your fantasy proleague with others? Strategy meetings? Sidebets? Or are you just a lone wolf?
  
  I don't really know anyone, haha.
  
  
  
• T.O.P. - Currently 21st placed.
  Firstly could you give a brief introduction about yourself? (When did you join TeamLiquid? Why do you visit TeamLiquid? Are you a korean popstar? etc)
  I joined TL in Jan. 2009 cause I saw that there was UCPL going on and I wanted to participate. So I made my first post on that thread. No, I'm not a korean popstar. I just thought using the id T.O.P. was ok since Clazziquai was already using a id from kpop.
  
  + Show Spoiler [Interview] +
  
  1. You have a very impressive anti-team. Was it luck or was it the universe rewarding you for having an all-protoss antiteam?
  
  At the beginning of the season, I was convinced that there is a z>>p imbalance in pro starcraft. That let me to believe that teams will send out 2 zergs, 1 terran, and 1 protoss out every week. Guemchi is Woongin's #2 protoss, Backho is sharing playing time with Perfectman, and I don't even know who Mingu is.
  
  2. You seem to be missing out on some of the really big names in your team. Are you confident that you'll be able to keep up with your luckier players like Hyuk and hyvaa?
  
  I never bought the big names in Fantasy Proleague. I feel that if I spend so much on one player, I won't have money to buy other good players. If you buy a well balanced team, your players will get more lineup appearances per week. I thought that Hyvaa is a good pick because even though he's not very good, he's Estro's Ace player. He has a high likelihood of being sent out in the Ace match.
  
  3. On a similar note, is Hyuk really the next rising star? Or is he benefitting from the current map pool / abundance of ZvZ like 815 or Shine[Kal] did?
  
  It's really hard to tell honestly. I think Hyuk is decent in zvz, bad in zvt, and good in zvp because all zergs are good at zvp now. His play doesn't make me feel like he's a S class player yet. Sometimes a player is riding a hot streak and you just have to jump on.
  
  4. SKT, KT, Hite and STX are taking a holiday and don't have matches next week. Were you aware? What will you do?!
  
  Wow, I wasn't aware at all. I'll have to look at the lineups to decide what to do. I probably won't trade KT Rolster because the difference between KT and CJ's trade value is too high. I'll trade some players if I don't lose much trade value.
  
  
  5. Do you enjoy your fantasy proleague with others? Strategy meetings? Sidebets? Or are you just a lone wolf?
  
  I constructed the team by myself. I only talk about fantasy pl in livestream chat when there's a stream going on. It was GTR who suggested me to trade Yarnc for Type B last week.
  
  
  
• Garnet - Currently 27th placed.
  Firstly could you give a brief introduction about yourself? (When did you join TeamLiquid? Why do you visit TeamLiquid? etc)
  I'm a 18 year old university student, currently living in Hanoi, Vietnam. I had been playing SC for about 1 year before recently when I stopped to focus more on other things. My max rank was D+ and I play Terran. I've been visiting TL everyday for about 2 years but haven't contributed much to the community
  
  + Show Spoiler [Interview] +
  
  1. How did you pick your team? Was it fanboying or Strategy?
  
  How did I pick my team:
  + Bisu and Zero are pure fanboyism (and Zero was cheap)
  + Hyuk and Ruby because I read their interviews and they said what I think will make a player do his best every games.
  + I traded Haksoo and FBH for Stats and Movie because they were in the lineup that week, did well in individual leagues and seemed to have potential. (And Haksoo sucks!)
  
  2. You seem to have a little trouble finding a decent low cost star to round out your team. Is this an issue for you or are those spots on your team just throwaway?
  Huh? No one in my team is a throwaway, and I'm waiting for next week's lineups because my decisions are mostly based on them.
  
  3. Is Hyuk really the next rising star? Or is he benefitting from the current map pool / abundance of ZvZ like 815 or Shine[Kal] did?
  Yes. Hyuk seems to have found the mindset of a champion.
  
  4. SKT, KT, Hite and STX are taking a holiday and don't have matches next week. Were you aware? What will you do?!
  Ouch. Didn't know that! But they will have to play their matches later anyway so I don't think it's a problem.
  
  5. Do you enjoy your fantasy proleague with others? Strategy meetings? Sidebets? Or are you just a lone wolf?
  I'm a lone wolf!